Support Us

Write For Us!

Opinions, Analysis, and Rebuttals.

Writers Pool
About Us

A Global Digital Think-Tank on Policy Discourse.

Home Blog Page 122

Secret Documents Revealed – US Global Diplomacy in Crisis

By
Amna Nazakat
-
3

More than 500 days have passed since the Ukraine war, but this time Russia has not been isolated in the way that the Soviet Union was isolated from the world. Most countries seem to be reluctant to oppose Russia, but at this time, apart from China, Syria, Iran and many other nations are either pro-Russia or neutral; thus, the Ukraine war is gradually sinking deeper into the economic, political and social system of Europe. In addition to the death of a former British soldier, Jordan Gately, on the front line in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, Kyiv, and Moscow separately investigated a disturbing video announcing the beheading of a Ukrainian soldier. It is believed to have been filmed by mercenaries of the Wagner group from Russia. The alleged leak of secret US documents about the war in Ukraine is also a sign that the US is gradually losing support from its allies. These documents point to a failure of diplomacy and a lack of mutual trust among allies.

The alleged leak of secret US documents about the war in Ukraine is also a sign that the US is gradually losing support from its allies. These documents point to a failure of diplomacy and a lack of mutual trust among allies.

The FBI has arrested 21-year-old Jake Teixeira for allegedly leaking classified military intelligence documents online, revealing files that show the United States is also monitoring UN chief Antonio Guterres. He is believed to have been soft on Russia after it invaded Ukraine. The documents revealed a record of private communications between Guterres and his deputy, which focused on a Black Sea grain export deal. According to the documents, the UN secretary-general appeared eager to uphold Russian interests. Guterres emphasized efforts to improve Russian export capacity, the leaked US document said, according to the BBC. The key event was that the export agreements Ukraine and Russia signed in July included a commitment to allow grain, fertilizer, and other agricultural goods to be exported across the Black Sea during the war, Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan mediated the talks, which he said would help ease the global food crisis. The leaked document alleges that during the February talks, Guterres discussed Ukraine. They are undermining broader efforts to hold Moscow accountable for its actions. Another US document from mid-February said Guterres expressed frustration after a call with European Commission President Ursula van der Leyen in which he said that the European Union wants to increase its production of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. Commenting on the report, Guterres’ spokesman said he was not surprised by the fact that people had been spying on his private conversations. The reaction of the spokesman shows that the leak of this sensitive information is also a preliminary document like WikiLeaks, which was made public, and a message was given to the allies.

After the release of the same secret files that circulated widely on Russian social media last week, the CIA, NSA and the US Defense Intelligence Agency had to deny the reports and launch an investigation to get to the source of the leak.

After the release of the same secret files that circulated widely on Russian social media last week, the CIA, NSA and the US Defense Intelligence Agency had to deny the reports and launch an investigation to get to the source of the leak. These reports also caused embarrassment to Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, two of America’s Middle East allies. Another leaked document is about the United Arab Emirates, which states that Abu Dhabi agreed to leak classified information from the United States and Britain to cooperate with Russia. The disclosure of these documents shows that for the Western Alliance supporting Ukraine, the question has now become important: Can Ukraine win the war? More worryingly, some declassified documents make it clear that Kyiv will not be able to succeed in its expected spring counter-offensive – its air defenses are weak. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kolyba tweeted that Blinken strongly rejected doubts about Ukraine’s ability to win on the battlefield while affirming the steely support of the United States. Russian forces are changing the so-called Syrian scorched earth strategy under which it continued to destroy buildings and places with airstrikes and artillery.

Pakistan’s Exceptional Military Diplomacy- Aiding Foreign Policy Objectives

By
Sara Nazir
-
0

Military diplomacy can be defined as a pattern of initiatives built on the application of negotiations and other diplomatic maneuvers that are primarily carried out by representatives of the defense department as well as other state institutions, with the goal of pursuing foreign policy objectives of the country to ensure successful realization of national security and defense policy.

China and Pakistan have a long-standing history of unwavering strategic alliance and mutual defense cooperation. Their partnership is largely characterized by shared values, interests, and regional perspectives.

The military relationship between Pakistan and China has developed over a period of decades and now covers a wide range of fields, including defense and security, information sharing, joint military drills, technology transfer, and weapons sales. Both nations have reaffirmed their commitment to advancing defense ties and enhancing their military cooperation. Their shared understanding of the threat that India poses to the region is one of the main drivers of Pakistan and China’s military cooperation. In order to offset India’s hostile designs for gaining regional dominance, both nations have unified their strategic objectives to provide a joint extended front to the mutual adversary.

Recently, General Syed Asim Munir, Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) met with Chinese General Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC), the military’s supreme command under President Xi Jinping. Both senior military leaders discussed shared security concerns and prospects for expanding military cooperation.

During the meeting, General Asim Munir was assured by a Chinese defense official that China prioritizes Pakistan in its regional diplomacy and strongly encourages Pakistan in preserving its right to sovereignty, the integrity of the land, development interests, and national honor. The all-weather friendship will persist despite Islamabad’s current economic crisis.

According to General Zhang, the two nations’ enduring relationship and mutual trust, which are as rock-solid as they are, are crucial components of regional and even global peace, stability, and prosperity. General Zhang continued, “The Chinese military is willing to cooperate with the Pakistani military to further strengthen and broaden possible cooperation, periodically lift the military-to-military interactions to greater heights, and jointly protect the common interests of the two nations as well as the peace and stability of the region”. He made an allusion to the new era that began in 2012 when President Xi assumed office and declared that China is eager to forge a stronger China-Pakistan community based on a joint destiny.

According to General Asim Munir, Pakistan will steadfastly defend China’s fundamental interests with regard to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, and the South China Sea regardless of how the global and regional situation evolves- a global endorsement of China as Pakistan’s iron brother.

Since taking over as commander of the Pakistan Army in November 2022, General Munir has traveled to four different foreign countries. In January, he made his first official foreign visit since his appointment, traveling to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). A month later, at the invitation of the British Ministry of Defence, he traveled to the UK for a crucial visit to discuss security-related strategic concerns.

Pakistan’s military diplomacy under General Asim Munir has entered a new era of strategic success with the latest, now globally famous, China visit.

In Pakistan, defense diplomacy has mostly assisted state institutions in accomplishing national goals by providing economic anchoring. One of the prime examples could be taken from international cricket matches in Pakistan. It appeared that Pakistan will not be able to host international-level cricket matches anytime soon despite all necessary measures in place to maintain a secure and peaceful environment in the country. By engaging army squads from Australia, England, and Sri Lanka to participate in cricket, the occasion shifted perceptions internationally and gave international teams confidence. This tactic of preemptive defense diplomacy made it possible for international cricket to make a comeback in Pakistan.

By utilizing the soft power tools at the military’s disposal, despite having a great potential in hard power capability- the Pakistan army is expanding its footprint in the international diplomatic realm, thus, is assisting the nation to grow rapidly at different international forums. The recent Joint China-Pakistan display of fraternity and commitment to a weather defense partnership has become a testament to the Pakistan military’s strategic capability in the diplomatic domain.

The Geopolitical Landscape: Major Alliances and conflicts shaping the world Today

By
Info Desk
-
0
World geopolitics are changing.USA has been the enforcer of the geopolitical landscape. US disengagement has allowed the rise of global powers, such as China & Russia, who are competing with the US. Global changes have led the EU to think about defending itself.

Putin’s Grand Strategy

By
Danish Raja
-
0

The great German Philosopher, Karl Marx once said, “History repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce”. This seems relevant even today. The mighty power of the past (Russia), in an attempt to reestablish its lost sphere of influence, is resurging again quivering the politico-economic corridors of the entire world.  Russia has historically remained an empire, first as Tsarist Russia till 1917, and then as Union of Soviet Socialist Republics till 1991, extending from Central Asia to Europe. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, philosophers like Francis Fukuyama proposed the concept of the “End of History” prognosticating that with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the ultimate triumph of Liberalism, there will be the end of conflicts in the 21st century. But the reverse happened. As it is an established principle that dissatisfied powers always wait for the opportunity to reassert their influence on international political and economic order. Russia, a dissatisfied power, refused to toe the line of the US-led world order and with the passage of time started pursuing policies focused on regaining its due place in the international system. Vladimir Putin declared the dismemberment of the Soviet Union as the greatest “geopolitical disaster of the 20th century”. To resurrect the Russian privileged sphere of influence, Putin came up with the grand project of Eurasian integration to integrate former Soviet territories.

Instruments of Putin’s Grand Strategy

The central theme of Putin’s grand strategy is to reintegrate erstwhile Soviet Republics. Invasion of Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, annexation of Crimea, and the most recent invasion of Ukraine, all reveal the single-minded focus of Putin in materializing his dream of resurrecting the Russian empire. Russia aims to be recognized as a pole in a multi-polar world and hence, Putin’s grand strategy is entirely geopolitical in its essence. One of the most effective instruments used by Putin in materializing its grand scheme is the control and manipulation of information disseminated by Russian media. Another vital instrument in Putin’s toolkit is the subversion through co-option that involves the deliberate weakening of statehood and installation of pro-Russian forces across the erstwhile Soviet territories. This strategy of subversion ranges from feeding opposition politicians to deeper penetration in government institutions, and to violent campaigns involving bombings and assassinations. Besides these, Moscow also supports opposition forces (as in the case of Georgia in 2008), extremists, and civil society in propelling Putin’s grand scheme. Furthermore, in the case of Ukraine Putin has used its ethnic affiliation as an instrument in the Donbas region of Ukraine since 2014 by fueling rebels against the state of Ukraine. Thus, Moscow appears to be an insecurity provider, rather than a security provider in the region.

Putin’s integration drive is based on ideology and pragmatic considerations. Moscow initially established a Commonwealth of Independent States that facilitated a civilized divorce among the member states, but with the passage of time, this organization proved ineffective in implementing any of its designed policies and thus failed.

After CIS, Central Asian states along with Russia established Eurasian Economic Community with the aim to achieve large-scale economic integration by reducing multiple trade barriers among the member states, but it also proved to be an ineffective drive like CIS. Later on, in 2011, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus established Common Economic Space to deeply integrate their economies. All these integration drives were aimed to re-Sovietize the erstwhile Soviet Republics by extending Moscow’s privileged sphere of influence.

The Collective Security Treaty (CST) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) were established with the aim to provide a collective security system to the neighboring states, but these organizations never participated in any conflict in and around Central Asia. Russia only wanted the CSTO to be recognized by the international community as an equal and legitimate partner of NATO. Hence, CSTO never participated in any conflict, neither in Central Asia, nor in the Caucasus, and just maintained an umbrella structure having a mirage of a collective security system, and never came into existence in reality.  Russia not at a single point, succeeded in using CSTO to undermine the Western encroachments in the region. Thus, an unequivocal weakness of the CSTO indicates a deep loophole in the grand integration project devised by Mr. Putin.

Is Putin’s Grand Strategy Destined to Fail?

Historical shreds of evidence reveal that once an empire (like Roman Empire, or Ottoman Empire) collapsed it could never resurrect itself with the sole exception of former Tsarist territories under Soviet rule. Putin considers the reintegration of erstwhile Soviet Republics as a process supported by history itself and he viewed himself as history’s helper. Putin’s grand strategy is basically aimed to reintegrate (politico-economically) former Soviet territories and to reestablish Russia’s privileged sphere of influence, and for this purpose, Eurasian Economic Union and Customs Union were introduced. Russia considers the Eurasian region as its strategic backyard and thus expanding NATO’s influence has remained an existential threat to its core geo-strategic interests. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has augmented its membership by encroaching on the eastern European region, thereby confining Russia almost within its own borders.

In order to materialize his grand strategy and bar any other state from joining NATO, Putin launched its full-scale offensive against Ukraine when the West in general, and the United States, in particular, did not categorically refute the possibility of membership of Georgia and Ukraine. However, two years have passed and Putin is still unable to achieve any obvious victory. Ukraine is reestablishing its control on the territories that Russia initially captured.

Putin is no longer going to achieve a decisive victory in its Ukraine gamble and the war is heading toward a hurting stalemate.

Another significant event that took place in recent times is NATO’s extension of membership to Finland. The significant expansion of NATO and the subsequent failure of Putin’s Eurasian Union Project to allure the erstwhile republics of the Soviet Union indicate that history is not in favor of Mr. Putin and he can avoid failure and the consequent demise of his grand strategy only by maintaining paramount military force or by relying on entirely new tactics. Experts opine that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will eventually prove to be the final nail in the coffin of Putin’s grand strategy, and circumstances on the ground validate their assertion.

Indian Elections, Media and Muslim Persecution

By
Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi
-
0

Mass media in general has become an inseparable part of modern society. From entertainment to politics, from television to the internet, its purpose has evolved to be more than just the dissemination of information amongst the masses. It is part of the social framework of modern society, dictating and establishing norms, as well as presenting the general character of our society and its politics.

The role of media within society is vast, particularly the impact on how we interact with one another as individuals and as nations have continued to have an increasingly significant role in our daily lives, especially in our perceptions of others.

Although mass media is a powerful means of disseminating information, it is also true that media continues to have a definitive effect on political thinking and perception not only on the internal politics of a nation but also on its foreign policy and strategic thinking.

The media has the ability to take a group of people and place them in the role of the ‘other’; the other against which their country’s own ideal is established, and a common enemy to unite against. Media-more particularly news channels and entertainment media- have become some of our main points of reference for establishing and disseminating social norms, moral codes, and political beliefs and orientations, regardless of whether or not those are just or reflect the truth.

The Modi era coincided with an exponential rise in the use of social media in India, a medium that this government exploited to the hilt to target critics, mobilize public opinion, and use tags like “anti-national,” and “anti-Muslim” to discredit anyone showing a hint of circumspection with the state narrative. The Indian government has fully grasped the impact of media on the thinking of the masses and opinion-making. The fundamentalist government of Modi in India, with the support and backing of its intelligence agencies, has ensured an iron hold on all the major media houses and has set up a huge network of social media community that they control both inside India and abroad to propagate its narrow hate infused ideology, particularly its anti-Pakistan rhetoric. The Indian media is hand in glove with the Modi government to ensure they create the hype necessary to deflect the attention of the populace from the domestic endemic problems to a threat to national security by Pakistan

Mainstream Indian media deliberately represent Pakistan in unfortunate ways as the enemy and a threat to Indian territorial integrity. This is enabled by the news media’s use of hate speech and demonizing language when speaking about Pakistan. Indian News media often portray Pakistan as a violent and dangerous nuclear power and a “threat to national security”, thereby perpetuating an “us against them” mentality. This creates an atmosphere of fear and more specifically, “Islamophobia. This is not only portraying Pakistan as an enemy to be dealt with but is also alienating and now targeting Indian Muslims residing in India sparking sectarian violence at a scale never seen before.

The Indian government is playing a dangerous game of supporting media organizations that whip up ultranationalist sentiments.

Key ministers attack journalists and media that believe in speaking truth to power. Prime Minister Modi himself has called journalists “news traders”, one minister has called them “presstitutes” and another said journalists should stop asking questions.

On the other hand, we see that during the first two decades of this century, partisans’ mild dislike for their opponents has been transformed into a deeper form of animus. The Spread of democratic ideas themselves and the subsequent development of mass media enabled political leaders, including the usually marginalized fundamentalist and extremist leaders, to project a positive image of themselves onto the masses as never before. It is this enabling environment in the 21st century that has facilitated the resurgence of personality cult leaders who in the garb of nationalism have perpetrated heinous crimes against their opponents as we see being done by the BJP leader Narendra Modi in India, particularly against the Muslim.

What is even more tragic is that leaders like Modi, through the use of populism, provoking religious sensitivities, inciting latent fears, and exploiting the underlying fissures in society manage to gather steam and ride on a wave of popularity. Based on negativity Modi has managed to capture political and administrative power and put in place his goons at the helm of affairs including in ministerial and strong administrative positions with the judiciary lamely following suit and obliging.  Notwithstanding the fact that, like Narendra Modi of India, these are convicted criminals who are iconized not only by their cult following but also aided by the full potential of the political, economic, administrative, and judicial apparatus to put them on a pedestal as saviors of the Nation.

In India Modi has created a personality cult around him. Despite bad governance and several political setbacks, Modi’s charisma and popularity helped BJP return to power in the 2019 elections. BJP sought votes only in Modi’s name and won. This has created a fascist monster who is using the influence of his personality cult to destroy the secular fabric of India and create a Hindu state. Inspired by Modi’s policy of hate, otherization, exclusion, and fanaticism, his blind followers are playing havoc with the hapless minorities of India, particularly the Muslims.

All minorities alike have faced a surge in communal violence in recent years but the largest minority the Muslims have faced the worse kind of atrocities committed against them. A number of new laws have been enacted that adversely affected their daily lives and interfere with the religious garments they wear, the food they eat, where and how they worship, and even whom they marry. Many Indian journalists, lawyers, activists, and religious leaders believe that the institutions on which the country once relied to keep this kind of ethnic supremacism in check—the courts, opposition parties, and independent media—have collapsed. Many feel that it is a betrayal of the basic premise of secular India promised by the founding fathers and the constitution.

While legally speaking, all citizens might enjoy the same rights, In Indian society now minority religious groups are experiencing structural neglect and when they turn to the state for protection from violence, or indeed when they seek any form of government support they realize that the state itself is the behind the discrimination, harassment, and authorization, not only by not protecting the vulnerable but condoning the actions of the perpetrators of these crimes and raising the criminals to the status of heroes and iconizing them as role models to be emulated. State Ministers of the BJP government spread hate and incite violence from the floors of the two houses of the Indian Parliament shredding the concept of equal rights for all citizens and the now the long lost principal of secular India and are hailed as heroes by the government while the police and the judiciary not only turn a blind eye but aid the state-backed atrocities.

In the Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, the situation is even worse. Two provisions in the Indian constitution, Article 35-A and Article 370, retained Kashmir’s autonomy and recognized its special status. They formerly preserved the rights of the ‘permanent residents’ of Kashmir from displacement and any attempts to change the demographics of the state. India unlawfully annexed Jammu and Kashmir by rendering it a Union Territory on August 5, 2019, to be directly ruled by the Central Government, in violation of international law. India has violated the obligation to maintain public order in Jammu and Kashmir through flagrant human rights violations in the region.

A practical genocide is taking place in IIOJ&K, and yet there is complete silence in the international community as India becomes the favored partner of the USA as a counterweight to China.

Despite all this Modi’s ideology of strident Hindu nationalism, combined with promises of economic development, remains a big draw with voters in India. With less than a year before the next general election, Modi is already in pole position and is projecting himself as a “lone worrier” against a large number of opposition parties who all want to remove him from power. This was clearly evident from his recent statement in the upper house of parliament when roared that the nation was witnessing how an individual was strongly facing many, thus setting the tone for the 2024 elections. Modi is appealing to the voters on the slogan that he was living for the country, the directionless opposition is struggling to find a common platform to take on Modi. It suits BJP to have this narrative of one leader (Modi) taking on the fight with a long list of opposition leaders. Modi versus the rest.

The youth of India see Modi as a strong leader, who rose to lead the largest democracy in the world from humble beginnings as a tea vendor. The local flavor that Modi provides by wearing the traditional dress and speaking in Hindi both at home and abroad, makes the youth relate to him and he has become an inspirational hero to be emulated. On the other end of the political spectrum in India we see that today the opposition looks even more fragmented than it was in 2014 when the BJP first won general elections bringing Modi to power. There seems to be merit in the Indian Home Minister’s statement that there were no competitors to Modi and that the Indian nation was solidly behind Modi. Whether this is the usual political bluster before elections will only be proven when people come to vote but for the moment it is advantageous for Modi for 2024.

Media and communications can play a positive or negative role in conflict situations and peace processes. Managing this is a key question for policymakers. The digital age has made this task even more critical and urgent. Faster dissemination of news and views by multiple means at faster speeds ultimately has a profound impact on developments.

“We inhibit the peaceful and negotiated resolution of conflicts not only by the extent to which we demonize one another. We do so also by the degree to which we separate, on the one hand, the processes of politics and international affairs, and on the other hand, the moral relations between ourselves as human beings. Talking to one another and discussion must be the prelude to the resolution of conflicts.” Nelson Mandela, Capetown, 1999.

This quote by Nelson Mandela epitomizes the very essence of a successful peace process and avoiding conflict and war.

International Players Threatening the Power and Influence of the Dollar

By
Dr. Usman
-
0

For many years, the U.S. dollar has dominated as the primary reserve currency for lending, investing, and international commerce. It has been said that the United States enjoys the “exorbitant privilege” of the supremacy of the dollar. However, there has been growing speculation about the prospect of a new reserve currency to replace the dollar as the global order evolves and new economic powers emerge.

A few possible candidates might emerge as the next reserve currency. The euro, the second-largest reserve currency in the world after the dollar, is one of the most often referenced. One benefit of the euro as a prospective reserve currency is that the European Union, a sizable and stable economic group, supports it. The financial system supporting the euro is likewise well-established and frequently traded.

The Chinese Yuan, which has recently gained popularity in foreign markets, is another challenger. The Yuan has been attempting to become global, and since 2016, it has been a part of the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies.

China is attempting to build its worldwide financial infrastructure to support the Yuan’s usage, which is already utilized for trade and investment on a global scale.

However, the Yuan and the Euro face formidable obstacles in their quest to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency. Regarding the euro, the continued economic and political difficulties that the European Union is now confronting have sparked concerns about the stability and long-term prospects of the currency. High unemployment, slow economic development, and political unpredictability have all been problems for the eurozone, raising doubts about its future as an economic unit.

China’s autocratic regime and lack of openness raise concerns regarding the Yuan’s dependability and credibility. Some analysts are concerned about the Yuan’s viability as a reserve currency due to China’s adoption of economic practices such as currency manipulation to obtain a competitive edge.

There are other possible candidates as well for the position of the following reserve currency. Some have proposed that as digital currencies are independent of any one government or central bank, such as Bitcoin or stablecoins, they may act as a global reserve currency. However, these currencies are not viable choices in the near future due to their volatility and lack of mass acceptance.

The replacement for the dollar will probably not be a single currency but rather a more varied and multipolar system of reserve currencies. There has been talk of extending the use of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), the IMF’s “reserve currency of last resort,” to stimulate international commerce and investment. Instead of depending entirely on the dollar, governments might diversify their reserves and keep a variety of alternative currencies. With this strategy, the danger of currency swings would be reduced, and the global financial system would be more stable.

When debating the future of the reserve currency system, there are more elements to take into account in addition to these prospective rivals. The U.S.’s position in the world economy is one of these elements. The supremacy of the dollar is closely tied to U.S. power and influence, despite the fact that the U.S. is no longer the only superpower.

The rising popularity of alternative payment methods like digital currencies and blockchain technologies should also be taken into account. These systems might upend established financial structures and have an effect on the function of reserve currencies in the world economy.

In the end, there is no simple solution to the difficult issue of which currency will succeed the dollar as the main reserve currency of the globe. The world is undoubtedly changing, and the existing system of reserve currencies may not be viable in the long run. As a result, politicians and economists need to keep looking at possible fixes and system replacements.

It is crucial to understand that any modifications to the system of reserve currencies will take time and involve extensive coordination and collaboration across nations. Political, economic, and social variables will influence the success of any prospective alternatives to the dollar. Therefore, policymakers and economists must collaborate to create a thorough and inclusive strategy to meet the difficulties and possibilities brought on by the shifting global order.

Any new reserve currency system must also be developed to support increased economic development and financial stability while also taking into account the worries and requirements of all stakeholders. To do this, it will be necessary to weigh conflicting interests and goals carefully and be open to engaging in constructive conversation and cross-sector cooperation.

A variety of variables, including economic trends, geopolitical events, and technological advancements, will influence the future of the reserve currency system.

We can contribute to ensuring a more stable, sustainable, and successful global financial system for future generations by keeping watchful and proactive, as well as by working together to identify and address possible risks and opportunities.

The adoption of a world reserve currency produced by a multilateral organization, like the IMF, has been proposed as one possible answer. This currency, which would be used for international commerce and investment, would be backed by various national currencies. Greater stability may result from this strategy, which would lessen the influence of any one nation or currency in the global financial system.

This strategy, however, might run into severe political and economic challenges and would need extensive coordination and collaboration among nations. Whether such a structure is desirable or even possible in the present geopolitical environment is still being determined.

The creation of regional reserve currencies, such as African or Latin American currencies, is still another feasible approach. These currencies promote better stability and economic integration within those areas by being utilized for trade and investment inside those regions. However, the political and economic stability of the concerned areas would be crucial to the success of such a strategy.

In conclusion, the urgent issue of which currency will succeed the dollar as the main reserve currency of the globe merits considerable thought and investigation. Because of the complexity and interdependence of the global financial system, any modifications to the system of reserve currencies might have significant effects on the world economy.

It seems doubtful that any one currency will soon completely replace the dollar, despite the fact that there are possible alternatives to the dollar, like the euro, the Yuan, or a global reserve currency issued by a multilateral agency. The reserve currency system is more likely to become varied and multipolar in the future, with a variety of currencies contributing to global investment and commerce. Policymakers and economists must be watchful and proactive in looking for new remedies and alternatives to the present system as the global economy changes and develops.

AUKUS Submarine Deal and China’s Move to Join the SEANWFZ Treaty

By
Nazia Sheikh
-
0

While the world is under the threat of nuclear war and an arms race. China confirmed its strong stance as a responsible great power to protect the region from nuclear danger. The move to join the SEANWFZ Treaty shows as responsible behavior of China. SEANWFZ treaty also known as the Bangkok Treaty, was signed by all ASEAN members in December 1995, as a pledge to safeguard the Southeast Asian region as a region free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. The SEANWFZ Treaty is open to signature by the five recognized nuclear-weapon states – China, Russia, the US, the UK, and France. Once China signs the treaty, it will be the first of the five permanent members of the United Nations (UN) Security Council to do so.

The Asia Pacific region again facing nuclear threats as a decision made by the Australian government to acquire a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines as part of a new defense pact with the United States and the United Kingdom.

The deal was announced in September 2021 and has generated significant controversy and debate. Under the deal, Australia will acquire nuclear-powered submarines using technology provided by the United States and the United Kingdom. The move is seen as a major strategic shift for Australia, which has traditionally relied on conventional submarines. Australia will buy as many as five US nuclear-powered submarines and later build a new model with US and British technology.

The AUKUS scheme announced on February 2023 represents the first time a loophole in the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been used to transfer fissile material and nuclear technology from a nuclear weapons state to a non-weapons state.

China accused UK and US to violate the objectives of NPT. The IAEA must ensure that no proliferation risks will stem from this project, AUKUS violating the principles of nuclear non-proliferation and increasing the concern in the region for countries like Malaysia and Indonesia. AUKUS claims to adhere to the highest standard on nuclear non-proliferation which is just aimed to deceive the public.

Malaysian scholar John Pang wrote that “AUKUS is the spear tip for the militarization and polarization of Southeast Asia. It is a raw application of the with-us-or-against-us logic of the rules-based order.”

Chinese military expert Song Zhongping believes that to deal with AUKUS, it will be in the interest of China to sign the SEANWFZ treaty. AUKUS possible actions may provoke nuclear proliferation in the region, turning Southeast Asia into a training ground for nuclear weapons and an arena for the dangerous arms race,” Song said.

China’s support for ASEAN’s efforts to build a nuclear-weapon-free zone and willingness to sign the SEANWFZ Treaty is a clear signal against countries that want to exploit certain issues with nuclear technology in the Asia-Pacific, especially in Southeast Asia.

For China, it is crucial to ensure that Southeast Asia maintains a peaceful region free of nuclear proliferation for its security.

But most importantly, China’s willingness to sign the treaty proves the country takes its due responsibility as a major power that seeks peaceful development. It is in contrast to the immature behaviors of the AUKUS countries, especially the UK and the US, both of which are nuclear-weapon states and permanent members of the UN Security Council as China is.

Xu Liping, director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Twenty years ago, China was the first among ASEAN’s dialogue partners to join the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia. Presently, if China signs the treaty, it will set up a good example and encourage other countries, especially other nuclear-weapon states, to follow its steps.

China’s moves will be just the beginning. Only when more countries, particularly those with nuclear weapons, decide to do the same can maintain regional peace and stability.

There are also concerns about the environmental and safety implications of nuclear-powered submarines. The AUKUS deals also have implications for global arms control and non-proliferation efforts. The use of nuclear power in submarines raises concerns about the potential for nuclear accidents and it has been criticized by some as a step away from efforts to reduce the world’s reliance on nuclear weapons.

It will be hoped that not only ASEAN countries but also more countries in the Asia-Pacific region will see the danger that AUKUS poses. Countries especially major powers should work together to make the region a source of peace and stability, rather than living in constant fear of nuclear proliferation and threats.

Cope India 2023: An Indo-US Strategic Initiative

By
Dr. Attiq Ur Rehman
-
0

The unprecedented growth of various strategic bilateral initiatives between the United States and India has become an undeniable reality and an irrefutable truth in contemporary global power politics, where Washington is formulating various anti-China alliances around the globe through its strategic engagements. American quest for undermining the worldwide rise of China, enabling Beijing to counterbalance Washington’s global engagement, has selected India as an appropriate strategic partner capable of containing China effectively.

The American-China-specific global strategic engagement has developed a strong bilateral strategic partnership with other nations where India is an exception. The Indian and US governments are presently engaged in arranging multileveled interactions of their regular armed forces against common threats.

The recently held joint air exercise, Cope India 2023, is one of the leading bilateral New Delhi-Washington joint ventures, and it has provided an opportunity for the Indian Air Force (IAF) and United States Air Force (USAF) to develop a close strategic collaboration. The Cope India 2023 was the sixth edition of this joint venture of IAF and USAF, which was concluded on April 24, 2023. The Japanese Air Self Defence aircrew participated in this sixth air exercise as an observer, and the Japanese government formally announced its support to the evolving alliance of Indian and US air forces. This exercise was conducted in two phases to increase the interoperability between the air forces of both states. The first phase of this two-week-long exercise emphasized the air forces’ air mobility and the participation of C-130 and C-17 aircraft from both states. The second phase witnessed the participation of Indian frontline fighter aircraft Su-30 MKI, Rafale, Tejas, and Jaguar, whereas the US B1B bombers, MC-130J, and the F-15 fighter aircraft participated in this joint venture on Indian soil. Moreover, the involvement of Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) and aerial refueling aircraft remained significant parts of this air exercise. The two weeks exercises took place at three main Indian air force stations at Panagarh, Kalaikunda, and Agra. In this bilateral exercise, the two-sided air forces conducted air mobility training, airdrop training, and large-force and fighter-training exercises.

The Cope India air exercise is a series of air force exercises started in 2004 as a fighter training activity, held at Air Station Gwalior, India. The subsequent episodes of Cope India were conducted in 2005, 2006, 2009, and 2018. The recently held sixth episode of this exercise was conducted close to the Chinese border with the aim of sending a specific message to China due to the ongoing border confrontation between India and China. This exercise is fundamentally arranged by the air forces of two strategic partners, which could not be separated from the contemporary global power politics in which the strategic thinkers of the US and India are committed to counterbalancing China in the world by designing various strategic initiatives.

The Cope India is a bilateral initiative intended to follow the model of the Malabar naval exercise with the inclusion of Japan.

Akin to Japan’s involvement in the Indo-US naval exercise, Malabar, the Cope India has the potential to become a trilateral alliance with the addition of Japan, another anti-Chinese nation. The objective of Cope India is to enhance an environment of friendliness between the participating air forces, parallel to providing participants nations with sufficient chances to increase their existing levels of engagement, exchanging of ideas, and learn the best practices of each other. According to the New Delhi-based strategic community, this joint exercise has also provided several opportunities for the participating states to augment their existing strategic collaboration. It is pertinent to mention here that the Indian and Japanese forces have already conducted various joint military exercises with India, such as Sea Dragon 2023 naval exercise.

The Indian government believes that this air exercise reiterates the commitments between the two largest democratic nations to work together against potential threats while boosting their strategic collaboration against common threats. With the help of the US, such exercises contain the substantial potential for intensifying the contemporary strategic competition between the US and China at the global level because the anti-China positions of New Delhi and Washington are the critical factors in formulating a close strategic partnership between India and the US. No doubt, this exercise is purely a matter of bilateral interaction between India and the United States, but the timing and locations of this exercise have alarmed Chinese security. It has attracted the attention of the international strategic community towards South Asia, where the Indian government is diversifying its strategic ties with various other states and continuously arranging different military exercises with other nations. Presently, it is difficult to quantify Chinese responses to this Indo-US strategic activity, but given the ongoing border tensions between New Delhi and Beijing in the Himalayas, it is more appropriate to maintain the leading security architectures of China are closely monitoring the American strategic moves in its surrounding regions. In this way, there is no harm in saying that New Delhi’s growing strategic association with the great powers beyond China could endanger other neighboring states such as Pakistan.

Chinese multiplying economic collaborations with Pakistan is also a serious concern for India, and Indian leadership has translated it as a serious threat to its position in the broader Asian power politics.

Therefore, this Cope India 2023 has communicated the increasing reliance of India on its strategic collaborations with the US, and it has multiplied New Delhi’s constantly increasing aggression against the territorially adjoining nations.

The Changing Dynamics of U.S.-China Relations: Impacts on the Global Economy and Security

By
Noor ul Ain
-
1

The United States and China have a complex and multifaceted relationship that has evolved over the past several decades. The history of U.S.-China relations dates back to the early 19th century when U.S. merchants began trading with China. In the early 20th century, the U.S. and China established diplomatic relations, but this relationship was disrupted by the Communist Revolution in China in 1949. The U.S. did not recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) until 1979, and the two countries did not establish formal diplomatic relations until that time.

During the Cold War, the U.S. viewed China as a strategic rival of the Soviet Union, and the two countries cooperated on issues such as arms control and trade. However, tensions remained high, and the U.S. imposed economic sanctions on China after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. In the 1990s, both continued to have a complicated relationship, with disagreements over human rights, trade, and security issues.

In the early 2000s, the relationship began to shift as China’s economy grew rapidly. The U.S. saw China as an economic partner, and the two countries established a complex and interdependent trade relationship. However, tensions continued to simmer over issues such as intellectual property theft and cyber security.

The relationship between the US-China is changing its dynamics in fundamental ways. both states are involved in serious and costly wars of trade that even if fixed through dialogues, will be expected not to give the basis for long-term stability through negotiations, and will likely not provide the basis for long-term stability.

Reasons for the tension between US and China:

In the 21st century, Asia no longer reflects primary global dynamics as it did during the Cold War.

China is rising and challenging US interests while Asia as a continent is increasing in long-term importance to the United States and the world.

Now Asia is home to half of the 20 fastest-growing economies, generates 2/3rd of global growth, and accounts for 40% of global GDP.

The competition for security is not new to US-China relations, but its nature and role in the overall relationship are changing. For many years, US-China conflicts of interest have been apparent on a range of security issues including Taiwan’s status and security, US alliances, Chinese military modernization, nuclear and missile nonproliferation, maritime territorial disputes, and episodic regional security issues. Nowadays, the situation is developing in a new direction. It is because of Chinese military modernization. In the western Pacific, it is aimed at compelling US power projection abilities, and in Asia, China has made great progress in eroding traditional US military advantages. China has accumulated an “amazing amount of weaponry that they developed in a very short period of time. Their economy, is quite solid throughout the world,” Cohen said.

In the Russia-Ukraine war, the US is very concerned that China is providing lethal support to Russia in its war against Ukraine.

The US wants China to condemn special military operations carried out by Russia, as China often says other states to respect the sovereignty of others and seek peaceful resolutions of territorial disputes.

But to US’s disappointment, China has followed a different approach. Moreover, the Taiwan issue has also drawn China’s anger. In Taiwan, China has frequently said the issue is an internal affair. China claims that the self-governed island is its part, and maintains that Taiwan should have no right to have foreign relations. More recently, the relationship is going to get harder after the U.S. shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon. Moreover, a lack of visits, dialogue, and exchanges raises the danger of conflict between US-China. Both China and U.S. blame each other for the deterioration in ties and say that their own actions are rational responses to the unreasonable aggression of others.

Impacts of US-China changing relations on the Global Economy and Security:

The US and China are the two largest economies in the world, and they have a major impact on global trade. Any changes in their trade relationship, such as tariffs or trade restrictions, can have ripple effects on other countries that rely on trade with them.E.g., if the US imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, Chinese companies may shift their production to other countries, which could disrupt supply chains and affect other countries that rely on Chinese exports.

The US and China are also major investors in each other’s economies. Any changes in their investment relationship, such as restrictions on investment or divestment, can have a significant impact on global financial markets.

E.g., if US investors start pulling their money out of China, it could lead to a decline in Chinese stocks and the value of the Chinese currency, which could affect other countries that have invested in China. Both States are also major players in innovation and technology, and any changes in their relationship could affect global innovation and technological progress. E.g., if the US imposes restrictions on Chinese technology companies, it could limit their ability to innovate and disrupt the global tech landscape.

The U.S.-China relationship is increasingly defined by military tensions, as both countries seek to expand their military capabilities and assert dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. Any escalation of these tensions, such as a military confrontation, could have serious global security implications, as other countries may be drawn into the conflict or be affected by the aftermath. Both are also engaged in a battle for dominance in cyberspace, with both countries accused of engaging in cyber espionage and hacking. This could lead to cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure, such as power grids, financial systems, and communication networks, which could have serious security implications for the entire world.

The U.S.-China relationship also has significant implications for nuclear proliferation, as both countries possess nuclear weapons and play a key role in global non-proliferation efforts. Any changes in their relationship, such as increased military tensions or a breakdown in diplomatic channels, could lead to a greater risk of nuclear conflict or the proliferation of nuclear weapons in other countries.

The U.S. and China also have competing interests in various regions of the world, such as the South China Sea, North Korea, and the Middle East.

Any escalation of regional conflicts could have serious global security implications, as other countries may be drawn into the conflict or be affected by the aftermath. Any significant changes in the US-China relationship could have far-reaching implications for the global economy and global security, and policymakers and business leaders around the world will need to carefully monitor developments, adjust their strategies accordingly and work together to mitigate the risks and prevent escalation of conflicts.

Japan’s Demographic Dilemma: The Challenge of a Declining Birth Rate

By
Isha Noor
-
0

Understanding the Cultural and Social Factors Contributing to Japan’s Population Decline:

Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida has warned that the country is on the brink of not being able to function as a society because of its falling birth rate.

With the number of yearly births falling below 800,000 for the first time in 2022, Japan is currently experiencing one of the most severe demographic crises in the world. According to data that Japan’s health ministry, the number of newborns decreased to 799,728 in 2022, the lowest number since records began to be kept in 1899. At the same time period, it was reported that deaths increased by 8.9% to 1.58 million.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s recent speech to parliament brought Japan’s dropping birthrate into sharp relief.  It’s “now or never” to address the nation’s population decline, he said in the 45-minute speech, adding that “Japan is standing on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society.” He said that he eventually wants the government to double its spending on child-related initiatives. In April, a new government agency to focus on this problem would be established.

Dropping birth rates are a result of a number of reasons, such as growing living expenses, an increase in the number of women in the workforce, as well as easier access to contraception, which encourages women to have fewer children.

The declining social and cultural values are a major factor in Japan’s low birth rate. Family, marriage, and having kids were very important in traditional Japanese society. The emphasis has changed recently, though, moving more towards independence and individualism. Many young individuals place greater importance on their professional and personal objectives than starting a family. Furthermore, because of the high expense of living and the demanding nature of contemporary lifestyles, some Japanese see children as a burden.

Individualism has played a significant role in Japan’s declining birth rate. Japan is a country with a collectivist culture where individuals are expected to prioritize the group’s interests over their own. However, in recent years, there has been a shift towards individualism, where young people are more interested in pursuing their personal goals and ambitions rather than settling down and starting a family. One of the main ways in which individualism has affected Japan’s birth rate decline is through the rise of the “Freeter” and “NEET” phenomena. “Freeter” refers to young people who are not in full-time employment but are working part-time or temporary jobs, while “NEET” refers to young people who are not in education, employment, or training.

Many young people in Japan prefer this lifestyle because it allows them to have more freedom and flexibility to pursue their personal interests, rather than being tied down to a traditional 9-to-5 job and family responsibilities. Another way in which individualism has affected Japan’s birth rate decline is through the rise of the “Konkatsu” trend, which refers to the pursuit of marriage as a personal goal. Many young people in Japan are more interested in finding a partner who shares their interests and values, rather than settling down with someone their family approves of. This trend has led to a delay in marriage and a decrease in the number of children being born. In summary, individualism has contributed to Japan’s declining birth rate by encouraging young people to prioritize their personal goals and interests over traditional family values and responsibilities.

The difficulties of balancing work and family life are another significant factor in Japan’s low birth rate. In the industrialized world, Japan has some of the greatest working hours and fewest vacation days, making it difficult for parents to raise kids and have full-time jobs. Additionally, there aren’t many affordable childcare options, which discourages people from having kids.

Japan is ranked one of the world’s most expensive places to raise a child. Housing prices and education costs are particularly high, which can make it difficult for families to afford children.

Japan’s high cost of living, limited space, and lack of city-based childcare services make it challenging to raise kids, which results in fewer couples having kids.

The declining marriage rate, financial strain, childcare load, later childbearing, and infertility are also some of the variables influencing Japan’s declining birth rate.

This decline in Japan’s birth rate has several significant consequences for the country including an aging population which has put a significant strain on the country’s healthcare system, social security system, and economy. Japan today has a rapidly aging population and a declining labor force. The nation’s finances are being drained by the soaring expense of caring for its elderly residents, who make up a larger percentage of the population. Japan now has the world’s second-highest proportion of people aged 65 and over, according to World Bank data. The nation’s aging population and declining birthrate, which are both happening at a greater rate than anywhere else in the globe, will have a significant influence on the economy and society at large. There is even concern that, if the scenario persists, Japan will lose its status as a developed nation and revert to merely being a little country in the Far East.

The schools in Japan are shut down due to population decline. As the number of children decreases, there are fewer students to fill the classrooms, and some schools become economically unsustainable. Additionally, some families choose to move to larger cities where there are more job opportunities, leaving behind fewer children in rural areas. The schools that are most affected by population decline tend to be in rural areas with smaller populations. In these areas, there may be only one or two elementary and junior high schools serving the entire community. When the number of students drops below a certain threshold, the schools are forced to close, as it becomes difficult to maintain the facilities and provide adequate education with limited resources. According to a report by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, more than 40% of elementary and junior high schools in Japan had fewer than 50 students as of 2020. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years as the population continues to decline.

It will be very difficult for Japan to sustain World’s third-largest economy in upcoming years with a smaller workforce and a small number of taxpayers The government should promote work-life balance by encouraging companies to offer more vacation days, flexible working hours, and work-from-home alternatives. To make it easier for parents to balance work and family life, the government should increase support for childcare facilities and introduce financial incentives to encourage people to have children. Otherwise, by 2050, Japan could lose a fifth of its current population.

1...121122123...135Page 122 of 135

Stratheia aims to be a global pioneer in the field of strategic intelligence. Our independent team of researchers cover topics ranging from the latest geopolitical events, to public policy, cyber security, and intelligence analytics.

Share with Us

Opinions, Analysis, and Rebuttals.

Write for us
About Us
Writers Pool

© All Rights Reserved. Stratheia, 2024