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A New Era of Palestinian Unity

By
Prof. Andrea Francioni
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In a landmark development, reconciliation efforts among 14 Palestinian factions, including the prominent resistance movements Al-Fatah and Hamas, have achieved significant success under the auspices of China.

In a landmark development, reconciliation efforts among 14 Palestinian factions, including the prominent resistance movements Al-Fatah and Hamas, have achieved significant success under the auspices of China. This historic agreement has culminated in the establishment of an interim government of national reconciliation, set to administer Gaza and the West Bank until new elections are conducted. This pivotal moment in Palestinian history brings renewed hope for unity and a peaceful resolution to longstanding conflicts.

The Beijing Declaration, signed by all participating factions, represents a significant diplomatic achievement. The declaration underscores the commitment of these factions to work together for the common good of the Palestinian people. This unity is seen as indispensable for achieving peace, justice, and statehood. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan has praised this diplomatic success, highlighting China’s crucial role in facilitating the agreement. According to Sharif, unity among Palestinian groups is essential for the realization of their aspirations for peace and self-determination.

The agreement has rekindled hopes for lasting peace in a region long plagued by conflict. Pakistan, a steadfast supporter of the Palestinian cause, endorses a two-state solution, advocating for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state along pre-1967 borders, with Al-Quds (Jerusalem) as its capital.

This vision aligns with international efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and underscores the importance of diplomatic solutions.

The unity efforts come at a critical time when the Palestinian territories have experienced severe turmoil. Over forty-nine thousand Palestinians have been martyred during a nine-and-a-half-month war between Israel and Hamas. The Zionist Army’s latest offensive on eastern Khan Yunis in southern Gaza resulted in the martyrdom of 84 Palestinians, highlighting the ongoing violence and the urgent need for a unified response. The historical animosity between Hamas and Al-Fatah, which began after Hamas’ victory in the 2006 elections and subsequent clashes leading to Al-Fatah’s expulsion from Gaza, had resulted in deep-seated divisions. Despite the onset of the Israeli war in Gaza on October 7, 2023, both groups continued to exchange accusations, highlighting the persistent rift. Currently, Hamas governs Gaza, while Al-Fatah controls the Palestinian Authority, which partially administers the West Bank.

National unity among the Palestinian factions is crucial for several reasons. First and foremost, it presents a united front in the struggle for self-determination. A divided leadership weakens the Palestinian cause and makes it more challenging to achieve international support. The Beijing Declaration aims to overcome these divisions by fostering cooperation and collaboration among the factions. Secondly, a unified government can better address the needs of the Palestinian people. The interim government of national reconciliation will be responsible for administering both Gaza and the West Bank, ensuring that essential services are provided and that the rights of Palestinians are upheld. This government will also prepare the ground for democratic elections, allowing the Palestinian people to choose their leaders and shape their future.

China’s role in mediating the reconciliation process has been pivotal. By hosting the talks and facilitating dialogue among the factions, China has demonstrated its commitment to international peace and stability. This diplomatic success underscores China’s growing influence in the Middle East and its willingness to engage in complex regional issues.

The Beijing Declaration reflects China’s strategic interests in promoting stability and fostering positive relations with the Palestinian people.

The international community has welcomed the reconciliation agreement, recognizing its potential to bring about lasting peace in the region. The unity among Palestinian factions is seen as a positive step towards resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The agreement has also garnered support from various countries and international organizations, which view it as a crucial development in the pursuit of peace and justice. The establishment of an interim government of national reconciliation has significant implications for the future of the Palestinian territories. It signals a shift towards greater cooperation and collaboration among Palestinian factions, which can lead to more effective governance and improved living conditions for the Palestinian people. Additionally, the agreement strengthens the Palestinian position in negotiations with Israel, enhancing their ability to advocate for their rights and aspirations.

Despite the optimism surrounding the Beijing Declaration, significant challenges remain. The longstanding divisions between Hamas and Al-Fatah will not be easily overcome, and it will require sustained effort and commitment from all parties to maintain unity. Additionally, the ongoing conflict with Israel poses a formidable obstacle to achieving lasting peace. The interim government will need to navigate these challenges while also addressing the pressing needs of the Palestinian people. This includes providing essential services, ensuring security, and preparing for democratic elections.

The international community will play a crucial role in supporting these efforts and holding the parties accountable to their commitments.

The success of the reconciliation agreement and the establishment of an interim government of national reconciliation represent a significant step forward for the Palestinian cause. It offers a renewed sense of hope and optimism for the future, demonstrating that unity is possible even in the face of longstanding divisions and conflict. As the Palestinian factions move forward with their commitment to national reconciliation, it is essential to build on this momentum and continue working towards a peaceful and just resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The international community must also remain engaged, providing support and encouragement to the Palestinian people as they navigate this critical juncture in their history.

The unity among Palestinian factions, facilitated by China’s diplomatic efforts, marks a new dawn for the Palestinian people. The Beijing Declaration has brought renewed hope for peace, justice, and statehood, highlighting the importance of unity in the Palestinian struggle for self-determination. As the interim government of national reconciliation begins its work, the journey towards lasting peace and the realization of a sovereign Palestinian state continues, with the support of the international community and the unwavering determination of the Palestinian people.

The Real Cost of IPPs in Pakistan

By
Saba Kiran
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Pakistan has experienced a significant increase in the installation of power plants intended to address the country's chronic power crisis.

In recent decades, Pakistan has experienced a significant increase in the installation of power plants intended to address the country’s chronic power crisis. These Independent Power Producers (IPPs) were initially celebrated as critical players in stabilizing the nation’s energy supply. However, the reality has turned out to be far more complex. While IPPs have indeed become an integral part of Pakistan’s power infrastructure, the financial burdens they impose have proven to be unsustainable and detrimental to both the economy and the general populace.

Payments to IPPs, known as “Capacity Payments,” are escalating at an alarming rate. These payments, intended to ensure a reliable power supply, have paradoxically led to exorbitant electricity prices. The impact on the industrial sector has been severe, causing widespread closures, and for the average citizen, paying for basic electricity has become an increasingly unaffordable luxury. This has resulted in a significant decline in the quality of life for many Pakistanis.

A staggering amount of additional payments, totaling trillions of rupees, are being funneled to government IPPs as capacity charges. Former Federal Commerce Minister Dr. Gohar Ijaz points out that 45% of these charges are borne by government IPPs.

Meanwhile, coal-fired IPPs account for 25%, and wind and RLNG-powered plants are charging capacity fees equivalent to 100% of their production, despite operating at less than 50% capacity.

A critical issue plaguing the power sector is that no power plant has managed to operate at full capacity for even a single day since agreements with these IPPs were inked. This inefficiency has turned IPPs into economic parasites, draining the national economy. Capacity charges are paid for approximately 50% of unused electricity, covering bank loans, financial expenses, fixed operational costs, and profits, all sanctioned by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA).

NEPRA estimates that in the fiscal year 2024-25, electricity consumption will rise by at least 3%, with a total generation of 130 billion units. The total cost of these units, including production, purchase, and delivery, will be around 3227 billion rupees. Out of this, 161 billion rupees will be spent on electricity costs, including fuel and maintenance, while 116 billion rupees will be allocated to capacity charges.

The actual cost of electricity represents only 35% of the total power purchase price, with the remaining 65% attributed to capacity charges. This discrepancy underscores the inefficiencies in power management and distribution.

NEPRA’s estimates suggest that without transmission losses, the power purchase price per unit should be Rs. 17.66. Yet, the average national power purchase price is fixed at Rs. 27 per unit for 2024-25.

The situation for consumers is dire. After accounting for transmission and recovery losses, the average national price per unit is projected to be between Rs. 65 to Rs. 72. The financial burden is exacerbated by additional taxes, duties, surcharges, and adjustments. In the last fiscal year alone, consumers paid an extra Rs. 245 billion due to higher tariffs. For 2024-25, an increased tariff is expected to generate additional revenues of Rs. 485 billion for Distribution Companies (DISCOs). Consumers will also be subjected to an 18% sales tax and other levies, adding up to 580 billion rupees.

The exorbitant electricity costs are causing widespread distress. People are forced to sell valuable possessions to pay their bills, and many industrial units have shut down due to prohibitive production costs. The impact on the national economy is profound, with reduced industrial output, increased unemployment, and a subsequent rise in poverty levels. This situation demands urgent government intervention to curb electricity prices.

To alleviate this crisis, the government must abandon the policy of indiscriminate electricity price hikes. Legislative measures should be taken to ensure payments to IPPs are made only for the electricity actually purchased. This approach would provide a foundation for renegotiating IPP contracts. By addressing the root causes of inefficiency and overpayment, the government can establish a more equitable and sustainable energy sector.

Beyond legislative measures, improving the efficiency of electricity distribution companies is crucial. Better management practices can significantly reduce operational costs and minimize losses. For instance, investing in modern infrastructure, reducing transmission losses, and ensuring timely maintenance can enhance overall efficiency.

NEPRA’s own estimates indicate that with improved management, the cost of electricity can be further reduced, alleviating some of the financial burdens on consumers.

In the long run, diversifying the energy mix by incorporating more renewable energy sources can help mitigate the reliance on expensive IPPs. Solar, wind, and hydroelectric power offer more sustainable and cost-effective alternatives. Investing in renewable energy infrastructure not only reduces the dependency on fossil fuels but also lowers the overall cost of electricity production.

Encouraging public-private partnerships (PPPs) in the energy sector can also drive improvements. PPPs can bring in private sector expertise, efficiency, and investment, while the government provides regulatory support and oversight. This collaboration can lead to more innovative solutions and better resource management, ultimately benefiting consumers and the economy.

The initial promise of IPPs in solving Pakistan’s power crisis has been overshadowed by financial and operational inefficiencies. To truly address the problem, comprehensive reforms in the energy sector are needed. These reforms should focus on better management, increased efficiency, and a fair pricing mechanism that does not unduly burden consumers and the national economy. Legislative actions, investments in renewable energy, and public-private partnerships are essential steps toward a more sustainable and equitable power supply. Only through these measures can Pakistan hope to overcome its energy challenges and secure a brighter future for its citizens.

The Moral Dilemmas of Fighting Terrorism and Guerrilla Groups by Jean-François Caron

By
Naila Ahmed
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The potential and practical problems of state-counter terrorism and guerrilla groups as a phenomenon.

The potential and practical problems of state-counter terrorism and guerrilla groups as a phenomenon, its moral consequences have been discussed a lot in the works of Jean-François Caron’s book titled Moral Dilemmas of Fighting Terrorism and Guerrilla Groups. The book is rather critical of distinguishing between the two kinds of violence and specifically focuses on the ethical problems of the West, in particular after September 11, 2001.

Caron starts by describing the growing western knowledge of terrorism after monumental attacks including the 9/11 attacks, the 2004 Madrid Train bombings, 2005 London bombings and the more recent Paris’ attacks in 2015. These events are good examples of terrorism’s lethal endangering of innocent lives and its continued menace. But as Caron has noted it terrorism is not a youthful creation but a way of ancient political violence as recognized by Walter Liqueur. This is a long standing method that has been employed from the dawn of time by small factions against state officials or non-combatants.

Caron’s main objectives therefore include a proper explanation of terrorism and the difference between this and guerrilla activity. He therefore dispels the binary thinking of how terrorism is portrayed as barbaric and irrational mainly fueled by divinity while guerrilla warfare is portrayed as noble and rational with the underlying objective of attaining national liberation. Caron’s argument is based on history facts and it tries to provide arguments that terrorist action as some operational modus can be a reasonable strategy for groups which fights for providing national liberation and religious motivations can sometime lead to avoidance of violent actions.

These violent images differ significantly from the irrational/ rational and the barbarian/ civilized distinctions often employed to compare these two types of violence.

State and Non-State Actors

Caron deals with an assumption that terrorism is something that can be practiced only by non-state actors. He points to the fact that while some states said to be the sole legitimate users of force condemn non-state actors as regards force and immoral. He tackles etymologies of the word terrorism which originated from ‘terrorism’ in French, noting the usage of terror by states in

revolution France. Caron also supports its arguments by historical examples such as the Britain during the WWII, which used terrorism in the form equal to that used by current non-state actors, thus disproving the idea that terrorism is solely performed by the organizations that are not states.

Ethical Dilemmas in Counterterrorism

The book explores the ethical dilemmas in the fight against terrorism, identifying three primary challenges: Safeguard citizens’ lives compared to inflicting collateral damage / unnecessary loss of lives to foreigners. Knowing the whereabouts and plans of a terrorist group through torturing the captured terrorists versus paying respect to their non-combatant positions. Between ending conflict and deliberately attacking civilians to get to the result of no conflict. Therefore, the author raises two primary issues in the performance of moral complexity regarding actions of the states, and inevitable violations of the moral standards irrespective of the decisions made.

Caron also explores the ethnocentricity or the guerrilla warfare moral claim that guerrilla warfare’s actions have to be questioned.

Philosophical and Ethical Analysis

Author employs different ethical theories in dissecting the state’s responses to terrorism and guerrilla warfare. He expresses his dissatisfaction with two broad categories of ethical theories; the utilitarian and the deontological theories. Caron highlighted how both visions lack the sufficient tools to solve the ethical issue of asymmetric warfare. The measure of philosophical scrutiny therefore reveals the ethical dilemmas that pervade counterterrorism and challenges reader’s perception so as to grasp the multi-layered ethical domain, which states engage in during such fights.

Legal Considerations

Caron focuses in his work on ethics and international law and the relations between the laws of war and human rights. He talks about matters of legal concern explaining that legal systems are dinosaurian in terms of adaptability to occasions of terrorism and guerrilla exploitation, that show lack of legal opportunity and moral chance. Furthermore, even though Caron’s book provides extensive ethical and philosophical consideration, it offers comparatively limited epistemic direction on counterterrorism planning and approach. The book successfully defines ethical issues arising from state actions while presenting less information on how they can be resolved practically. Some practitioners may also consider this deficit as a weakness because the guidelines provided themselves as well as the recommendations are not strictly instructive for the practitioner in applying to policy and strategy.

It is worth mentioning that Moral Dilemmas of Fighting Terrorism and Guerrilla Groups constitutes a valuable addition to the existing body of knowledge in the phenomenon of political violence. Caron’s attention to ethics in the broadest sense, cross disciplinary framework and philosophically sophisticated argument make this book an indispensable guide to experiencing

moral hard cases posed by states’ counter-terrorism and counter-guerrilla warfare. Due to the involvement of abstract ideas and extensive use of terminology, the book effectively trying to enhance attentiveness to the ethical issues in counterterrorism, inviting to consider global challenges more critically.

Nuclear Deterrence: Fueling Instability in South Asia?

By
Tayyaba Khurshid
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Nuclear Deterrence

The inherent structure of International politics compels states to maximize their power and rely on advanced weapons and technology to maintain dominance and edge over the enemy to ensure survival. But when a state increases its power, it instigates the insecurity of the enemy causing an arms race. The India-Pakistan relationship presents the best example, where India has been continuously involved in maximizing its power by integrating all means of power-(focusing on air, land, sea, nuclear, space, and cyberspace) and compelling Pakistan to follow the path for its security and survival.

The South Asian strategic environment is filled with mistrust, animosity, and hostility. The leadership in India and Pakistan relies on past experiences for the future course of relations. And present situation presents no progress in bilateral relations paving hurdles for the normalization of ties, trade, and arms control efforts. The past relations, unresolved Kashmir Issue, and resulting mistrust have led them to focus on building up weapons and modernizing their nuclear forces.

India and Pakistan are among the top 5 arms importers, with Asia being the largest region to receive arms in 2023, according to SIPRI Yearbook 2024.

They rely on deterrence offered by nuclear weapons without arms control efforts to maintain strategic stability. Hence, the continuous reliance on aggressive means without bilateral arms control arrangements is destabilizing the South Asian strategic environment. This demands comprehensive bilateral arms control initiatives between both states.

According to SIPRI Yearbook 2024, India and Pakistan are two of the top 5 arms importers for 2023 and Asia was the largest region to receive arms. The growing reliance on arms and modernization of nuclear forces is due to the mistrust resulting from Territorial issues, and lack of dialogue. This has resulted in the unwillingness of both states to move towards arms control initiatives. India has 172 warheads, 2 more than Pakistan standing at 170 warheads as per the SIPRI yearbook.

India’s nuclear arsenal stands at 172 warheads, compared to Pakistan’s 170, reflecting a continuous increase in nuclear capabilities.

It reflects that India is continuously increasing its nuclear arsenals. The overall global nuclear arsenals have also increased and currently 12121 nuclear weapons are present out of which 9585 are ready for deployment in military stocks. The existing global arms control initiatives have also declined and too much attention and war in Europe and the Middle East has increased the proliferation concerns worldwide. South Asia remains one of the nuclear flashpoints with a long-standing issue of Kashmir. India has been actively involved in building long-range capabilities that transcend Pakistan and China and target Europe now.

Moreover, the South Asian force structure relies too much on deterrence without focusing on arms control initiatives. Currently, there is no bilateral treaty between two South Asian rivals to control nuclear proliferation in the region and both states are non-party to various multilateral arms control frameworks due to their political differences. Neither, does the environment suggest any mutual consent to improve the situation.

The unresolved Kashmir issue and mutual mistrust hinder bilateral arms control efforts and contribute to regional instability.

Arms Control is one of the important pillars to attain strategic stability and is considered as a good cop as it can only be achieved through mutual trust, confidence, and negotiations. The India and Pakistan relation reflects that both states are still not ready to negotiate as the long-standing issue of Kashmir is still unresolved. Moreover, India blamed Pakistan’s involvement in cross-border terrorism, and the aim of isolating Pakistan at the international forum has been pivotal in shaping the animosity further. The Indian leadership has opted for an aggressive posture to deal with Pakistan and the Pakistani side is also reluctant to improve the relationship with India over Kashmir after the abrogation of the special status of Kashmir.

The strategic environment of South Asia can be improved if both states will develop trust and move towards resolving their issues through negotiation and dialogue. Too much reliance on nuclear weapons and modernizing force posture by both states is only instigating an arms race in the region that is detrimental to South Asian Stability. The long term peace can be attained through mutual respect, negotiation on issues, moving towards conflict resolution, and building trust that leads to bilateral arms control mechanisms.

Currently, no bilateral treaty exists between India and Pakistan to control nuclear proliferation, and both states are non-parties to various multilateral arms control frameworks.

While states are too self-centric and pursue their interest in International politics, but too much modernization without arms control efforts will be at the cost of South Asian peace and stability. The 2024 year has been an election year in both India and Pakistan. Elections have taken place, two new governments are at the helm, there is a need for the two governments should take the initial steps for dialogue and find solutions that might eventually lead to enhanced trust and confidence paving the way for arms control initiatives. Only through dialogue and mutual agreement, the arms race in South Asia can be replaced with arms control arrangements.

Consulate Under Siege: The Frankfurt Attack

By
Arshad Mehmood
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Frankfurt consulate

Pakistan strongly condemned the attack by a group of extremists on the Frankfurt consulate, Germany, on July 20. South Asia’s largest Muslim-populated and nuclear state also criticized the German authorities for failing to protect the sanctity and security of the consular premises.

Pakistan condemns the extremist attack on its consulate in Frankfurt, urging Germany to protect consular premises under the Vienna Convention.

Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said in a statement “Under the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations, 1963, it is the responsibility of the host government to protect the sanctity of the consular premises and ensure the security of diplomats”. “We also urge the German authorities to take immediate measures to arrest and prosecute those involved in yesterday’s incident and hold accountable those responsible for the lapses in security,” she said.

The statement emphasized that “the security breach at Pakistan’s consulate in Frankfurt endangered the lives of its consular staff”. It also added, “We are conveying our strong protest to the German Government”. On Sunday, Pakistan’s Foreign Office summoned Germany’s ambassador to Islamabad, Alfred Grannas, to express concerns over an attack on its Frankfurt consulate by what it described as a “gang of extremists.”

Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif orders NADRA to identify the attackers using photographs.

According to various media reports, the attackers were reportedly Afghan nationals who pelted the consulate with stones during their protest. There are reports that they also tried burning the Pakistani flag. From the pictures, it is evident that most of the protesters outside the Pakistani consulate were holding Afghan flags. According to German media, the demonstration aimed to spotlight grievances against Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies.

It further stated that “During the protest, a small group of men forcibly entered the consulate grounds and threw stones at the building. A video on social media showed individuals climbing a pole to remove the Pakistani flag. Police, who were present with the protesters, intervened by removing several individuals from the premises and dispersing the crowd. Frankfurt police have stated that the State Security division is investigating the incident”.

Attackers, reportedly Afghan nationals, protested against Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, taking strict notice of the incident, has directed the Chairman of NADRA to trace the individuals involved using photographs. He also emphasized that the German authorities should be supported in this effort. According to sources, the German authorities have arrested several protesters. The situation has drawn significant attention from the global community, raising concerns about the security of diplomatic venues.

The majority of Afghan refugees living in Germany have previously resettled from Pakistan. Pakistan remains the world’s largest host country for Afghan refugees, with an estimated 4 million Afghans currently residing there. Although they hold Pakistani identity papers, many still express animosity towards Pakistan when given the opportunity.

Several protesters were arrested by German authorities following the incident.

The ongoing tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan is influenced by various factors, including Pakistan’s deportation of millions of undocumented Afghan residents. Official data indicates that approximately 600,000 Afghans have returned to their country so far. However, the deportation process has been halted for one year following intervention from other countries, including the United Nations.

Muhammed Asif Khawaja, Pakistan‘s Defence Minister remarked that Pakistan must reconsider its approach to hosting Afghan nationals. He emphasized that despite Pakistan’s extensive support and sacrifices—including its involvement in conflicts on behalf of Afghanistan—there remains a deep-seated resentment from the Afghan population.

The attack underscores the need for stronger diplomatic security measures globally.

Asif suggested that the ongoing tension and dissatisfaction might require Pakistan to reevaluate its policies and strategies regarding Afghan refugees and its broader relationship with Afghanistan. It is reported that Afghan refugees living in Germany protested outside the Pakistani consulate following the death of Pashto poet Gilaman Wazir in Islamabad.

Gilaman Wazir, whose real name was Hazrat Naeem, was a prominent leader of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM). He was attacked by unknown gunmen in Islamabad on July 7 and succumbed to head injuries on 11 July. A case has been registered to investigate the incident. Former Afghan Presidents Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani, among others, offered their condolences for Wazir’s killing through their tweets.

The Causes of Bangladesh’s Recent Riots

By
Chiara Cacco and Dr. Sahibzada Muhammad Usman
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The recent riots in Bangladesh have drawn significant attention both domestically and internationally, shedding light on the deep-rooted issues plaguing the nation.

The recent riots in Bangladesh have drawn significant attention both domestically and internationally, shedding light on the deep-rooted issues plaguing the nation. The unrest, initially sparked by confrontations between the student wing of the Awami League, the Bangladesh Chhatra League, and protesting students, reveals a broader and more complex narrative. This turmoil underscores the ongoing conflict within Bangladesh, rooted in the establishment’s policies and the increasing authoritarianism of Sheikh Hasina’s virtually one-party rule.

To understand the present unrest, it is crucial to look back at the historical context. On January 3, 2024, Raqim Al-Haruf wrote about the Bangla Krashik Saramak Awami League (Buxal) and its transformation under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who became president for life and established a one-party system in Bangladesh. This historical precedent is now being echoed in Sheikh Hasina’s governance, where similar authoritarian practices are being implemented, leading to growing public dissatisfaction. Sheikh Hasina’s government has been criticized for its heavy-handed approach and suppression of dissent. The protests reflect a growing sentiment against her administration, which many see as prioritizing power retention over democratic principles and citizens’ welfare.

The societal discontent is further fueled by the increasing influence of India on Bangladesh’s domestic and foreign policies, perceived by many as compromising national sovereignty.

One of the critical drivers of the riots is the economic struggle faced by millions of students in Bangladesh. With over 18 million students grappling for jobs, the country’s largest garment industry, despite its $40 billion export revenue and employment of 4 million people, cannot meet the employment demands of these students. This economic frustration has ignited the flames of unrest, reflecting broader societal issues beyond mere job scarcity. The anger among the youth is not solely about the lack of employment opportunities. It stems from systemic discrimination and the perceived favoritism towards a specific group since the fall of Dhaka. Many believe that since the fall of Dhaka, Bangladesh has fallen under the invisible control of India, exacerbating feelings of disenfranchisement and inequality.

The garment industry, which is a cornerstone of Bangladesh’s economy, has not been able to absorb the vast number of educated youths entering the job market each year. Despite being a major exporter, the industry’s growth has not translated into adequate employment opportunities. This disconnect has led to widespread frustration among the youth, who see their futures dimming in a stagnant job market. The government’s inability to create new job opportunities or support industries that can absorb this labor force has only heightened the sense of betrayal and anger among the populace.

The current protests also highlight deep-seated social discrimination and historical resentments. The main demand of the protesters was to end the special privileges granted to those who fought against Pakistan in 1971. This movement is largely driven by students whose elders were not part of the 1971 unrest, yet they feel the repercussions of that era.

The ruling government, under Sheikh Hasina, has leveraged these historical privileges to maintain power, further alienating a significant portion of the population.

The societal divide is marked by those who have historically benefited from the post-independence privileges and those who have been marginalized. The resentment has been building over decades, with the latter group feeling increasingly sidelined in the political and economic spheres. The protests are a manifestation of these accumulated grievances, where the younger generation, who did not experience the liberation war, feel particularly disenfranchised by a system that they believe is unjust and discriminatory. The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that even the official broadcaster has gone offline, a measure only previously seen during significant upheavals like the Egyptian revolution in 2011. This media blackout highlights the severity of the government’s crackdown on dissent and the escalating conflict within Bangladeshi society.

Sheikh Hasina’s government is perceived as heavily inclined towards India, with actions that reinforce this alliance often coming at the expense of national interests. For instance, to appease India, Sheikh Hasina prematurely ended her visit to China and announced the handing over of the 414 km long Teesta Water Project to India. This move, aimed at placating India, has further fueled public anger and the perception of Bangladesh as a subordinate state under Indian influence. Economically, Bangladesh’s garment industry relies heavily on raw materials from China, while India remains the largest buyer of Bangladeshi products in Asia. By aligning closely with India, Sheikh Hasina’s administration is seen as making Bangladesh’s economy increasingly dependent on its neighbor, thereby undermining economic sovereignty.

Most of the raw material in Bangladesh’s garment industry comes from China, while India is the largest buyer of Bangladeshi products in Asia. It buys $15 billion worth of various products from Bangladesh annually, and Sheikh Hasina deliberately wants to make Bangladesh’s economy more under India’s influence. Along with this, it is also helping India to fulfill its ambitions in the Indian Ocean.

It is quite clear that India’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean are aimed at countering China’s Indian Ocean policy. It has a part from the eastern coast of Africa to Australia.

Bangladesh’s inclusion in the Colombo Security Conclave, alongside Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Mauritius, further cements its alignment with India’s regional strategy. The main objective of this organization is to maintain security and stability in the Indian Ocean under India’s interests, countering Chinese influence. This strategic alignment is perceived as another step towards making Bangladesh a “country state” under India’s auspices, where the local ruler is assured of security while the external power holds significant control over national affairs. In June, Bangladesh formally requested China to invest in the Teesta Water Project, but later handed it over to India to demonstrate its loyalty to the latter. This strategic decision underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play, with Bangladesh caught between its economic dependence on China and its political alignment with India. The move to align with India in the Indian Ocean’s security framework also suggests a deeper strategic partnership aimed at countering China’s influence in the region.

Sheikh Hasina’s government has actively sought to align Bangladesh’s security and economic interests with India, further consolidating this relationship. The agreements signed during her visits to India, which included cooperation in maritime security, economy, space, and telecommunications, highlight the depth of this partnership.

This alignment has not been without controversy, as it has fueled the perception that Bangladesh’s sovereignty is being compromised in favor of Indian interests.

The riots in Bangladesh are a manifestation of longstanding grievances, economic struggles, and political tensions. The confluence of historical resentments, social discrimination, economic dependency, and geopolitical alignments has created a volatile environment. As public sentiment continues to agitate against Sheikh Hasina’s government and its perceived subservience to India, the unrest is likely to persist. Addressing these issues requires not only economic reforms and job creation but also a commitment to democratic principles and national sovereignty. Without such measures, the discontent in Bangladesh will remain a significant challenge for the current administration. To move forward, the government must recognize the multifaceted nature of the unrest and take comprehensive steps to address the root causes. This includes creating inclusive economic policies that provide job opportunities for the youth, ensuring social justice by addressing historical grievances, and maintaining a balanced foreign policy that safeguards national interests. Only through such holistic measures can Bangladesh hope to achieve stability and peace in the long term.

Boosting Economic Growth: New Deals with China

By
Syed Umair Jalal
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Economic Growth

During the recent visit to China, PM Shehbaz Sharif has gone a long way for the so-called economic growth by agreeing to bring some of the vital Chinese industries to Pakistan. Pakistan is looking at this agreement to bring in revolutionary changes in its economy and the Prime Minister has vowed to fast track this. Admittedly, this venture is quite crucial and so the Prime Minister himself has been keen at championing the equitable measures towards its realization.

More recently, in the last two days, the Prime Minister gave a green light to a joint venture of Chinese and Pakistani company stressing upon his government’s ardour to carry out investment in Pakistan as one of the main political priorities. Yielding to people’s needs and expectations is one of the significant values of this project. In his speech, he pointed out that this cooperation would increase the economic returns tremendously, generate employment, and increase exportation.

PM Shehbaz Sharif has green-lighted a joint venture with Chinese companies, emphasizing this as a political priority to boost economic growth and employment in Pakistan.

The Prime Minister also discouraged officials from the ministries and institutions involved in the signing of the memorandum of understanding with China to delay it as he said no to plans to delay the MOU. The desire to push for the common progress is evident from him, Affordances of the Chinese leadership’s cooperation should not be underestimated by the government machinery.

In the course of the meeting that took place today, a general plan of converting Chinese industries to Pakistan was revealed. This plan is based on cooperation between the Chinese and Pakistanis Companies for migration of China’s textile, plastic, leather, medical & surgical instruments industries to Pakistan. The Board of Investment provided the information about 78 Pakistan venture capital seeking partnership with corresponding Chinese companies.

The Prime Minister appreciated BOI’s efforts and advice and directed the concerned government departments to extend their all-out support and facilities to those Pakistani companies who are opting for such sort of partnerships.

A strategic plan involves relocating Chinese industries to Pakistan, including sectors like textiles, plastics, and medical instruments.

Also, a total of one thousand students will be trained in China in the new method of practicing modern agriculture at the government’s cost and the first set of students will be dispatched at the start of the current academic year. This programme has been envisaged with an intention to transform Pakistan’s agriculture sector through modern technologies that would increase quality of agricultural production from the existing barren land along with maximizing acres per-hectarage. Thus, it will increase the demand of Pak agriculture products globally, which will improve its sales and exports.

Despite several costly and unfavourable factors, the Prime Minister still continues to work hard and eagerly to uplift the state of nation’s economy. Proof to this commitment is the establishment of the IT park in Islamabad. The Prime Minister also said during his recent visit to the site about this project that the work of constructing this project will set a model across the region. Further, the government has laid down intentions to introduce one thousand e-employment centres all around the nation.

The construction of the IT park is expected to be completed by June next year; however, everything possible is being done to ensure the construction is completed by October this year. The IT industry presently is a sphere enriched with numerous opportunities for development and employment in the contemporary world, and the given initiative seems to benefit from these opportunities.

One thousand Pakistani students will receive training in modern agriculture in China, aiming to enhance Pakistan’s agricultural productivity and exports.

Furthermore, the Prime Minister also pointed out that sustained development of the country’s resources requires national reconciliation. He asked for large-scale negotiations between political forces and state institutions for unity and cooperation. It is crucial for such monumental projects to have this dialogue in order for them to retain relevance and meet their goals.

Indeed, all these changes have significantly shaped the nature of China-Pakistan relations and the nature and prospects of the CPEC. When it comes to cooperation between China and Pakistan the level of trust and the willingness to further strengthen their ties are viewed in a positive light and the examples include the latest accord signifying China’s readiness to transfer industries to Pakistan. This partnership is believed to boost the two countries’ trade and investment relations, thus strengthening the strong and growing economic partnership that has for long been promoted.

CPEC which is a part of the BRI has already brought a sea change in infrastructure of Pakistan. It is believed that the involvement of fresh industrial initiatives will give more pace to CPEC because now it is not only the way of transportation and energy projects but also a place of industrial and technological progress. This diversification of CPEC projects will thus bring more deficit the economic integration between China and Pakistan for the advantage of the two nations.

The establishment of an IT park in Islamabad and the introduction of e-employment centers are part of the government’s drive to modernize and expand the IT sector.

For China, it has the added advantage of controlling over-capacity and cutting down cost of production when industries are moved to Pakistan. In return, through Pakistan’s geographical position, the Chinese industries get a new market in South Asia, Middle East and Africa. Furthermore, the industrial cooperation also caters to China’s general strategy of upgrading industries and going global in manufacturing industry.

For Pakistan, the advantages are many folds; The probes also show that Chinese industries will lead to the generation of several employment opportunities, low unemployment levels, and economic development. This industrial development will also facilitate that technology transfer as well as skill development of human resource for the growth of Pakistan’s industrial skills as well proficiency. Besides, increased exports from these industries will assist in the decrease of the trade deficit and improvement of the foreign exchange reserves.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is evolving from infrastructure to include industrial and technological projects, promising deeper economic integration.

The educational exchange being sent thousands of students to China for the training in modern agriculture shows the extent of China-Pakistan cooperation. Besides increasing the production in agricultural filed this program will also help to produced trained professional that are needed for the overall development of Pakistan’s economy.

Taken more generally, these measures indicate a keen interest of both nations in expanding the cooperation in the sphere of bilateral relations, as well as the successful strategic partnership. They emphasize that cooperation is beneficial for both countries as well as the common understanding of the future’s potential. The setting up of the it parks, and the transfer of industries have been made to establish this vision to make Pakistan a developed countries list through economic revolution and technological revolution.

ASEAN’s Approach to Indo-Pacific Stability

By
Dr. Nhien Tran
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The increasing significance of the Indo-Pacific region has driven its transformation into an arena for major powers

The increasing significance of the Indo-Pacific region has driven its transformation into an arena for major powers like China and the United States to expand their influence. The interests of these major powers have the potential to cause conflicts that can disrupt regional stability, posing a threat to surrounding countries, including ASEAN member countries. Therefore, the involvement of ASEAN as a regional organization in Southeast Asia in maintaining regional stability becomes an intriguing topic to understand further.

Geographically, the Indo-Pacific is a space that connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans, while from a more functional understanding, the interconnection and interdependence between the two oceans are due to the increasing power of globalization, trade, and other activities, thus increasing the mobility of actors and resulting in an integrated approach between countries. In this context, the Indo-Pacific region is also known for its rich natural resources including oil, natural gas, minerals, and fisheries, and is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, thereby enhancing its strategic importance. Consequently, the Indo-Pacific region has become one of the most dynamic areas and the center of global economic growth.

The transformation of the region has prompted various powerful actors to play a greater role in the area. In this regard, China plays a significant role in providing and supplying investment funds to countries in the region, including through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and non-BRI projects, 50% of which are directed to Southeast Asia.

China’s increasing economic influence then raises concerns for other dominant countries in the Indo-Pacific such as the United States and Japan, leading to competition in the region.

The US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region drives the securitization of the area. In this case, the securitization in the Indo-Pacific region is cantered on China, which is considered a threat by other countries such as the United States. This can be seen through the US policies, in collaboration with several other countries, to form security alliances like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad), which is seen as an attempt to counter China’s dominance and its disruption of the rule-based order in the Indo-Pacific region. Additionally, the securitization of the region can also be seen through the formation of AUKUS by Australia, the United Kingdom, and the US to enhance defence through nuclear-powered submarines. However, some parties view these alliances as potentially disrupting regional stability by increasing tensions and arms races and undermining institutions and weakening nuclear non-proliferation mechanisms.

Despite the dynamics occurring in the region, as described above, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a regional organization in Southeast Asia, is not involved in it. This is unfortunate because economically and politically, the Southeast Asian region is increasingly securitized, where the competition of power in the region significantly influences its member countries, for example, on the South China Sea issue.

The importance of the Indo-Pacific region for ASEAN can be seen through the ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOIP). AOIP is a guideline regarding ASEAN’s view of the Indo-Pacific region, formed in response to the presence of the Quad, which is seen as a threat to regional stability. ASEAN considers the Indo-Pacific region not only as a territorial space but an integrated and connected area where ASEAN needs to play a central and strategic role. The geo-economic and geo-strategic changes in the Indo-Pacific region not only present opportunities but also challenges that can threaten regional stability. However, the biggest security threat in the Indo-Pacific region is the competition of major powers. In this case, countries like China expand their power through aggressive actions in the South China Sea and BRI projects, which become threats that the United States tries to mitigate.

This region becomes an arena of competition for two major powers, which is further exacerbated by coalition alliances.

Despite the threat mentioned, ASEAN constructs this region as an ‘area of cooperation’ rather than competition, where the position of Southeast Asia right in the middle of the Indo-Pacific region makes ASEAN a regional organization that plays a central role. In this case, ASEAN’s role in the Indo-Pacific region is to create peace and maintain stability because the conflicts and interests of great powers competing in the region can threaten the stability of the region, especially its member countries. Therefore, the principles embodied in the AOIP become an important instrument to encourage ASEAN’s involvement in regional dynamics

In general, AOIP principles emphasize cooperation over competition, where ASEAN centrality is deemed important in resolving conflicts based on a legal framework and non-intervention. The implementation of AOIP principles is realized through strengthening ASEAN-led mechanisms such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus), Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum (EAMF), and other relevant ASEAN+1 mechanisms. In this regard, ASEAN’s involvement becomes an important issue to emphasize in the Indo-Pacific regional dynamics for several reasons. First, the Southeast Asian region is part of the Indo-Pacific, and therefore threats or conflicts that occur in the region will have more impact on ASEAN member countries.

This is in line with Barry Buzan’s explanation in the Regional Security Complex theory, which emphasizes regional-level threats.

Second, involvement without showing bias in great power competition is the most feasible and appropriate position for ASEAN’s interests. To put it in a considered position in regional dynamics, ASEAN cannot side with one power. This is because ASEAN has long-established good cooperation with both the US and China, even making them the largest trading partners for the organization. Additionally, the diverse interests of each member country also put the organization in a difficult position in choosing a side. Indonesia’s leadership as the chair of the organization also has an important influence in directing ASEAN’s policies, reinforced by Indonesia’s ‘free and active’ policy principle. Thus, emphasizing the cooperation framework through ASEAN centrality and neutrality in AOIP principles becomes the most feasible standing position to apply as it places ASEAN in a considered position while still protecting ASEAN’s interests.

Population Growth and Climate Change in Pakistan

By
Prof. Dr. Muhammad Munir
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Pakistan's rapid population growth is exacerbating the problem of resource scarcity on the one hand and the challenge of climate change on the other.

Pakistan’s rapid population growth is exacerbating the problem of resource scarcity on the one hand and the challenge of climate change on the other. Although Pakistan’s contribution to global warming or carbon emissions is negligible, yet Pakistan is among the countries most affected by climate change. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan ranks fifth among the countries affected by climate change. Similarly, in terms of population, Pakistan is the fifth largest country in the world. However, it is ranked 161st in terms of per capita income and 138th in terms of GDP volume. Similarly, its growth rate in terms of population growth is about two percent, which means the growth rate in terms of population growth is zero.

From these figures, one can estimate the seriousness of the population growth problem facing Pakistan. This situation not only makes efforts to maintain a balance between population and resources futile, but the challenge of climate change is making it more dangerous. Due to the lack of resources, the risks of being affected by natural disasters increase for marginalized sections, while the government has to allocate more resources for their rehabilitation, which increases the non-productive use of national resources. According to the Global Climate Database, the average temperature in Pakistan increased by 0.9 degrees Celsius between 1980 and 2021, while the Global Climate Risk Index ranked Pakistan as the 27th least prepared country in the world to deal with the effects of climate change. It should be noted that from 1998 to 2018, more than 10,000 deaths have occurred due to climate change in Pakistan, resulting in an economic loss equal to four billion dollars. Similarly, due to the flood of 2022, Pakistan faced a loss of more than 30 billion dollars.

According to research by international organizations working for rehabilitation in areas affected by natural disasters, there is a fear that eighty to ninety million people in Pakistan will fall below the poverty line due to the increase in population and climate change.

With the current average annual growth rate, Pakistan needs 104 million jobs and 15.5 million houses. On the other hand, climate change, as a result of rising temperatures, is disrupting rainfall patterns, melting glaciers, increasing the intensity of floods, and raising the likelihood of droughts and hurricanes, leading to economic decline. Environmentalists have predicted that the trend of intensity in the summer and winter seasons is likely to continue until 2027. Due to the tremendous increase in population and climatic changes, Pakistan has become a wheat-importing country instead of exporting wheat in a short period of five years. Similarly, the increase in population also affects the distribution of resources. According to the Population Council of Pakistan, with the current population size and growth rate, the country needs at least 57,000 more primary schools by 2040.

More alarming is that two and a half million children in the country are already deprived of education, leading to estimates that it will take another fifty years to achieve the goal of making it possible for 100% of children to have access to primary education in Pakistan.

Every additional person adds to carbon emissions, while risks of malnutrition are increasing due to population growth. For this reason, Pakistan is among the countries most affected by global warming. Apart from this, the productivity of crops is also affected due to the increase in temperature. Agricultural scientists have long suggested the need to promote the use of traditional grains like millet, barley, and maize to reduce the pressure on wheat production. Additionally, the increase in population is proving to be a major reason for the reduction of forest or agricultural areas. According to official data, the number of trees has decreased significantly by one percent during the last two decades. Thus, Pakistan’s cultivable land has decreased by three percent between 2017 and 2020 to meet the housing needs of the growing population.

The tremendous increase in urban population is also a major reason for the increase in temperature. For example, air conditioner use is one of the main sources of dry heat generation, increasing by five percent in urban areas and more than three percent in rural areas over the past fifteen years. Yet, the climate change discourse in Pakistan is mainly focused on strategies to reduce carbon emissions, while the relationship between population growth and climate change is not given much importance. Confronting the climate change challenge facing Pakistan requires reducing the rampant rate of population growth as its main focus. This will not only help to balance population and resources but also ensure the survival and prosperity of future generations.

The Backbone of Pakistan’s Financial Stability

By
Chiara Cacco and Dr. Sahibzada Muhammad Usman
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Overseas Pakistanis are an invaluable asset to the nation, contributing significantly to its economy through their remittances.

Overseas Pakistanis are an invaluable asset to the nation, contributing significantly to its economy through their remittances. These remittances serve as a lifeline for Pakistan’s economy, helping to stabilize it and prevent potential financial crises. The continuous inflow of foreign remittances is crucial; without it, the country could face severe economic challenges, possibly even bankruptcy. Fortunately, remittances have shown a positive trend, increasing over time, which is a reassuring development for the nation’s economic health.

In the fiscal year 2023-24, Pakistan received a record $30 billion in remittances, marking a 10.5 percent increase from the $27 billion recorded in the previous fiscal year, 2022-23. This surge brings remittances close to Pakistan’s total exports, which stand at $30.6 billion. This increase not only underscores the importance of remittances but also highlights their growing role in the national economy.

The highest remittances in the financial year 2023-24 came from Saudi Arabia, amounting to $7.4 billion. The United Arab Emirates followed with $5.5 billion, while the United Kingdom contributed $4.5 billion. The United States sent $3.6 billion, the European Union provided $3.5 billion, and the GCC countries collectively contributed $3.2 billion. Additionally, $4.2 billion came from other countries around the world.

These figures demonstrate the significant reliance on remittances from Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which together account for more than half of the total remittances.

Globally, Pakistan ranks fifth in remittance receipts, with India leading at $87 billion annually, followed by China with $54 billion, Mexico with $53 billion, and the Philippines with $36 billion. Egypt and Bangladesh follow Pakistan with $30 billion and $23 billion, respectively. The higher remittances to countries like India and the Philippines are often attributed to their workers’ education, English language proficiency, and technical skills, which enable them to secure better-paying jobs abroad.

The increase in Pakistan’s remittances can be partly credited to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The FATF’s stringent measures have significantly reduced the use of informal money transfer systems. In the Gulf countries, where many Pakistani expatriates work, regulatory changes have mandated that salaries be paid through bank transfers, thereby facilitating easier and more secure remittances through official banking channels. However, despite these improvements, some Pakistanis still prefer the informal systems due to the quicker transfer times and slightly better exchange rates.

One of the main reasons overseas Pakistanis opt for informal channels is the inefficiency of the banking system, which often delays the transfer of funds. Unlike the banking system, which can take several days, informal systems can deliver money within hours.

To address this issue, the Pakistani government must work on further improving and modernizing the banking infrastructure, encouraging expatriates to use formal channels for remittances. This would ensure that Pakistan benefits fully from these valuable inflows.

Currently, approximately 13.53 million Pakistanis live in 50 countries worldwide, comprising both educated and uneducated workers. This number is steadily increasing, with over 860,000 Pakistanis going abroad in 2023 and 800,000 so far in 2024. This trend suggests that remittances are likely to continue growing in the coming years.

While countries like China, India, and Bangladesh are moving towards digitalization to streamline and increase their remittances, Pakistan still relies heavily on traditional banking systems. The Pakistani government should focus on providing digital means for overseas Pakistanis to remit money, ensuring transparency and ease of use. Additionally, there should be a concerted effort to provide vocational training to the workforce, equipping them with skills that are in demand globally, thereby enabling them to secure higher-paying jobs.

Such measures would not only increase the volume of remittances but also potentially allow Pakistan’s remittances to surpass its exports in the near future. By focusing on these areas, Pakistan can ensure a steady and growing stream of remittances, which are vital for the country’s economic stability and growth.

Moreover, remittances have broader socio-economic benefits. They help in alleviating poverty, improving household incomes, and enhancing living standards. Remittances are often used for essential needs such as healthcare, education, and housing, thereby contributing to human development. In many rural and underdeveloped areas of Pakistan, remittances are a critical source of income, helping to drive local economies and reduce regional disparities.

Additionally, remittances contribute to the foreign exchange reserves of Pakistan, providing much-needed liquidity to the economy. This influx of foreign currency helps stabilize the Pakistani Rupee, reducing the current account deficit, and enhancing the country’s creditworthiness on the global stage.

Remittances also provide a buffer against economic shocks, helping the country to manage external debt and mitigate the impact of adverse economic conditions.

The government has recognized the importance of remittances and has introduced several initiatives to encourage overseas Pakistanis to remit money through formal channels. These include offering incentives such as reduced transaction fees, preferential exchange rates, and convenient remittance services through mobile banking and digital platforms. Efforts are also being made to improve the efficiency and speed of the banking system, making it more user-friendly for expatriates.

Despite these positive trends, challenges remain. The global economic environment, geopolitical tensions, and labor market conditions in host countries can impact remittance flows. Therefore, it is crucial for Pakistan to diversify its sources of remittances and reduce dependence on a few countries. Strengthening economic ties with new markets and promoting the export of skilled labor to emerging economies can help achieve this diversification.

Furthermore, there is a need for comprehensive policies that address the long-term integration of remittances into the national development strategy. This includes promoting financial literacy among expatriates, encouraging savings and investments in productive sectors, and creating favorable conditions for diaspora entrepreneurship. By leveraging the potential of remittances, Pakistan can achieve sustainable economic growth and development.

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