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Imran Khan’s Political Gambit – Calculated Power Politics


Pakistan’s political dissent and criticism landscape has recently witnessed a significant shift. Gone are the days when voicing opposition to the state or expressing discontent towards the military establishment was considered treacherous and an act of betrayal. Reflecting upon past events such as the 1992 police operation against MQM, the controversial assassination of Akbar Bugti, and the actions taken against PTM, it is evident that these entities never resorted to vandalising state or military installations, unlike the events that unfolded on 9th May involving PTI. What is striking is the lack of proactive response from the state, as it seems oblivious to pressing charges and the judiciary’s role in addressing these issues.

Imran Khan aspires to emulate transformative figures like Khomeini, employing charismatic appeals and meticulously crafted propaganda machinery to sway public sentiment and mobilise the masses under the banner of “Haqeeqi Azadi.”Can Imran Khan deliver the prosperity and justice he passionately advocates, considering his previous stint as Prime Minister yielded limited results?

Amidst this unprecedented turn of events, a profound question arises: What drives this intricate interplay of personal ambitions, power dynamics, and a fervent desire to reshape the political landscape? The answer reveals a complex reality where the pursuit of civilian supremacy and the strengthening of democracy take a backseat. Imran Khan is at the heart of it, whose unwavering quest for power transcends mere political ambition. He aspires to emulate transformative figures like Khomeini, employing charismatic appeals and meticulously crafted propaganda machinery to sway public sentiment and mobilise the masses under the banner of “Haqeeqi Azadi” (true freedom). However, one must question the essence of this promised revolution. Can Imran Khan deliver the prosperity and justice he passionately advocates, considering his previous stint as Prime Minister yielded limited results? The nation stands at a critical juncture, caught between the allure of change and the inherent complexities of political realities.

In the landscape of political aspirations, a stark contrast emerges between the pasts of Imran Khan and figures like Khomeini. While Khomeini was revered as a religious figure, Imran Khan’s journey has been marked by a different trajectory. His earlier years, intertwined with a life associated with glamour and fame, have presented a contrasting image to that of a religious leader. However, as he delves deeper into politics, Khan has sought to reinvent himself as a transformative figure of the “Riyasat-e-Medina” model in “Naya Pakistan”, drawing upon populist appeals and a promise of revolutionary change. The disparity in backgrounds and the paths they have traversed serve as a reminder of the divergent journeys that have shaped their respective narratives.

Recent events have taken an alarming turn in Pakistan.

Imran Khan’s supporters engaged in unprecedented acts of vandalism, setting ablaze military installations, including a 1965 warplane, martyr’s photos, and Jinnah House, which shook the nation to its core

Imran Khan’s supporters engaged in unprecedented acts of vandalism, setting ablaze military installations, including a 1965 warplane, martyr’s photos, and Jinnah House, which shook the nation to its core. In response, the government’s feeble attempts to curb these acts of violence only exacerbated the situation, revealing their ineffectiveness in maintaining law and order. Furthermore, the release of Imran Khan by the Supreme Court bolstered his confidence, making him appear untouchable and more powerful than ever before. However, amid mounting chaos and the government’s failure to address the situation, the establishment eventually stepped in.

The federation of Pakistan responded to the prevailing conditions brought about by the turmoil caused by certain party members of Imran Khan’s party. Consequently, these circumstances compelled the state institutions to take necessary measures in order to restore order and stability. Key members of the PTI, understanding the gravity of the situation, independently chose to hold press conferences, where they condemned the riots, dissociating themselves from the actions of Imran Khan’s supporters and his statements. This move aims to restore order in a country grappling with unrest and political turmoil.

As the nation grapples with these unfolding developments, the future of Pakistan hangs in the balance. The complexities of political realities and the quest for power and control continue to shape the narrative, leaving the people uncertain of what lies ahead.

Nevertheless, despite being abandoned by key party members and leaders, Imran Khan remains remarkably confident, hinting at a potential surprise in the coming weeks. His unwavering determination and mastery of manipulation suggest that he has a calculated plan in motion. Imran Khan seeks to upend the established order and challenge the authority of the Army chief, an audacious move that, if successful, would defy historical precedents in Commonwealth countries where successful coups orchestrated by a “civilian” are exceedingly rare. As the political landscape in Pakistan continues to evolve, Imran Khan’s resilience and audacity add a new layer of intrigue and uncertainty to an already complex situation. The nation watches with bated breath, anxiously awaiting the unexpected twist that awaits them. However, what can he do when abandon and left alone at Zaman Park?

Imran Khan seeks to upend the established order and challenge the authority of the Army chief, an audacious move that, if successful, would defy historical precedents in Commonwealth countries where successful coups orchestrated by a “civilian” are exceedingly rare.

Here is where both the establishment and the government are losing ground. Imran Khan, claiming to be a master of mind games, a player, and a gambler, has so successfully controlled the media that whether his supporters or his critics, we all are compelled to discuss him and only him. He rules over the media and commands public attention, even when he may face bans or restrictions. Imran Khan’s use of propaganda as a tool for manipulation is a fundamental aspect of his strategy. Through a network of international loyalists and media outlets, he disseminates false narratives, distorts facts, and fabricates stories to sway public opinion in his favour. His skilful manipulation of information and emotions creates a sense of urgency and crisis, fuelling public outrage and a demand for immediate action. By harnessing the power of media and social platforms, he controls the narrative and shapes public perception, effectively positioning himself as the people’s champion against the establishment.

This propaganda machinery is not limited to domestic affairs alone; Imran Khan also employs it internationally to garner support and sympathy. He presents himself as a champion of democracy and human rights, despite his scarred performance as the Prime Minister, known as a media predator, appealing to the global community for assistance in his perceived struggle against an oppressive military regime. Through carefully crafted speeches and media engagements, he portrays himself as a beacon of hope and progress, using international platforms to amplify his message and gain legitimacy. Imran Khan’s influence on the media landscape is undeniable, capturing public attention and dominating discussions, even when he faces bans or restrictions. His ability to control the narrative and command the public discourse is a testament to his adeptness in media manipulation.

Imran Khan’s propaganda machinery is not limited to domestic affairs alone; Imran Khan also employs it internationally to garner support and sympathy. He presents himself as a champion of democracy and human rights, despite his scarred performance as the Prime Minister, known as a media predator.

In this high-stakes battle, the government appears numb and clueless, unable to effectively respond to Imran Khan’s calculated manoeuvres. The lack of a unified and coherent strategy allows him to exploit the weaknesses and divisions within the ruling administration. The vacuum of leadership and the absence of a strong counter-narrative further contribute to his ability to manipulate public sentiment and sway public opinion in his favour.

All government parties collectively cannot garner the media or public attention that Imran Khan effortlessly commands. While the country grappled with an economic crunch and failed IMF deals, the focus remains fixated on Imran Khan. We are trapped in a never-ending cycle, compelled to centre our articles, tweets, and programs around him alone. The magnetic pull of Imran Khan’s persona overshadows the pressing economic challenges the nation faces, making it increasingly difficult to shift the spotlight and address critical issues.

However, behind the smokescreen of populist rhetoric and propaganda lies a more sinister agenda. Imran Khan’s goal is not to establish civilian supremacy or advance democratic ideals but to consolidate his power and fulfil his ambitions. A desire for complete control drives his relentless pursuit of a coup against the Army Chief and to eliminate any opposition to his rule. It is a power play fuelled by ego, vengeance, and a thirst for absolute power.

Amidst the chaos and uncertainty, it is crucial to remember the lessons of history and the importance of preserving democratic values. Pakistan needs leaders who can rise above personal ambitions and prioritise the nation’s well-being.

Pakistan is critical in this complex and treacherous landscape of power dynamics and personal rivalries where the state is targeted in Imran’s battle against Govestablishment. The decisions made in this battle will shape the country’s future trajectory, determining whether it veers towards stability, democracy, and civilian supremacy or succumbs to further turmoil, authoritarianism, and tyranny. Amidst the chaos and uncertainty, it is crucial to remember the lessons of history and the importance of preserving democratic values. Pakistan needs leaders who can rise above personal ambitions and prioritise the nation’s well-being. The challenges ahead are immense, but with a commitment to democratic principles, transparent governance, and a united effort, Pakistan can navigate through these turbulent times and emerge stronger.

In the ongoing battle for power and supremacy, it becomes clear that Imran Khan’s use of propaganda as a tool for manipulation is the “Achilles’ heel” of his strategy. In its quest to counter his influence, the “Govestablishment” must employ rhetorical tactics to challenge the narrative he has carefully constructed. By addressing the underlying flaws in his media presence and highlighting the potential dangers of unchecked propaganda, they can strive to restore a balanced discourse and protect the integrity of public opinion. Recognising this vulnerable aspect of his strategy presents an opportunity for the Establishment to recalibrate the dynamics and reclaim control over the narrative without compromising the principles of freedom of expression.

In this power duel, an unspoken undercurrent hints at the moment’s gravity. The phrase “one grave, two bodies” is a solemn reminder of the imminent outcome. It signifies the inevitable truth that in this battle for supremacy, only truth shall prevail while evil faces defeat. Pakistan’s destiny teeters on this precipice as the nation anxiously awaits the resolution that will shape its future. May Allah safeguard Pakistan from further turmoil.

Pakistan Zindabad!

China’s Economic Rise: Transformation to Multilateralism from Unilateralism

China’s economic growth over the last three decades has been nothing short of a miracle, and the world has benefited greatly from its emergence as one of the largest economies. According to a study published in 2012 in the Journal of Economic Perspectives by Professor Xiaodong Zhu, starting in 1978, China’s economy grew at the rate of 10 percent annually and its per capita income increased manifold. In 1977, the per capita income of an average Chinese was around 400 USD, and in 2009 the number rose to more than 10,000 USD. Rightly, Professor Zhu noted that “the pace and scale of China’s economic transformation have no historical precedent.” This enormous transformation in the Chinese economy brought structural changes.

 The traditional world order, which has been dominated by the United States (U.S.) and characterized by a high degree of assertive unilateralism, came under growing challenge from China as the latter became more confident and grew sensitive about its nascent role.

The article aspires to examine how China’s economic rise is contributing to the transformation to multilateralism from unilateralism.

Apparently, China encourages multilateralism in international affairs as one of the means of establishing a more multilateral world order. Contrastingly, the U.S. has always been blamed for dominating international affairs and has attracted flak for its extreme unilateralism. However, following Chinese Paramount Leader Deng Xiaoping’s opening up of the economy in the late 1970s and the subsequent accumulation of power, it has worked harder to oppose this unilateralism and advance a more multipolar global order. The successive leaderships of the Communist Party of China (CPC) have also upheld international norms and have been a great supporter of international organizations like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations (UN). Also, the successive CPC leaders have attempted to use these organizations to advance China’s interests and contribute to the establishment of the rules governing the global system. Despite benefiting the dominating economies and great powers, China’s support for multilateralism has contributed to the development of a more open and cooperative global environment. It has contributed to the expansion of a more cooperative and balanced international system by advocating multilateralism, which can help reduce the chances of conflicts and encourage global stability and economic growth.

With the fundamental aim to enhance connectivity through its economic initiatives, particularly the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is also encouraging and producing favorable conditions for transforming the global order. The BRI is a massive infrastructure and investment initiative and aims to link China with other nations in Asia, Africa, and Europe by way of a huge network of ports, highways, and other development infrastructure. Resultantly, China has contributed to the development of a more multilateral global order, in which economic power could be distributed more fairly among states. Such ventures are to be realized by making investments in these nations and promoting economic cooperation, interdependence, and connectivity. The BRI has the potential to advance greater economic integration and interdependence between various regions while also opening new economic opportunities for states all over the world. However, it has also sparked worries about the project’s possible environmental and geopolitical ramifications, particularly considering China’s expanding influence in the BRI’s target regions.

Resultantly, the balance of power in the international system has changed as a result of China’s growing economic influence. It has challenged the established superiority of the U.S. and other Western powers more and more as it has grown stronger. Undoubtedly, China’s economic rise has enabled it to play a more active role in international politics, particularly in the Asia-Pacific area, thanks to its expanding economic influence. For instance, the China-Solomon Islands Security Deal in March 2022 made headlines and attracted much criticism from the U.S. and months later in September 2022, President Joe Biden hosted the First U.S.-Pacific Islands Summit.

The U.S. policymakers felt to host the said summit as China was ingressing in the East and South Pacific using its economic sway.

It is noteworthy that China has adopted a multilateral approach using International Law in dealing with its territorial disputes with its immediate neighbors in the South China Sea. However, Western commentators continue to argue that China has pushed its territorial claims and sought to establish more control over the region and its more assertive foreign policy has been mirrored. Further, China’s expanding military might have readily threatened the region’s established security architecture, which in turn is putting enormous stress on U.S.-China relations. It is to be remembered here that since the U.S.-Philippines War in 1899 and after the Second World War, the Asia Pacific region and the Pacific Ocean has remained an unchallenged arena of the U.S., especially in the military domain. Nonetheless, such ventures by China are a direct product of its economic rise and employing multilateral fora.

In hindsight, China’s economic growth has had a significant global impact, as the policymakers in Beijing see their economic policies as a key part of their long-term economic and geopolitical strategy. By promoting multilateralism and investing in infrastructure and economic development across the globe, China is helping to transform the world order from one that is predominantly unilateral to one that is increasingly bilateral and multilateral. However, it remains to be seen how successful these efforts will be in promoting greater stability, cooperation, and prosperity globally. The world order is evolving rapidly, and China’s role in shaping it is likely to continue to grow in the coming years.

Pakistan’s Innovation Gap and Lack of Interest in Research and Development


Innovation seems to be the critical factor in economic development and prosperity, when we observe the developed nations in the world like China, Japan, the USA, and many others. We have seen humongous growth in innovation across the globe with the exponential rise in capital with creative ideas by some energetic entrepreneurs and a group of innovators ready to take risks and turn the investment into economic rise.

To make innovations and rise economically in the 21st investment in R&D (Research and Development) is essential, which is the sole catalyst for technological innovation and a production-based economy throughout the world. Those who lack these fundamental has always been left behind in the race.

Unfortunately, Pakistan is far behind in the race for innovation to uplift its economy. Pakistan’s rank in The Global innovation index is 87th out of 132 economies in 2022. Which is very low relative to India or any other innovative country in Asia. Pakistan has never been a country with high aims at research and development achievements to nourish its baffling economy and has always been fighting on the verge of bankruptcy, waiting for the IMF loans and bailout packages to uplift the economy temporally and then waiting for the next bailout package. The highest R&D expenditure of the total GDP of Pakistan was 0.63 percent in the year 2007 which does not compete very well compared to the R&D of the developed economies.

In contrast, our neighboring India is ranked 46th number in the world according to the global innovation index (2021) and is the world’s 5th largest economy with a crown of being one of the top innovative countries in Central Asia and South Asia. Its innovation progress is above average among upper-middle-income countries. The country’s expenditures have tripled in the past two decades and its rapidly growing economy has set an environment for investment in scientific research for capital, manpower, and a large consumer market, which is benefiting the Indian market in the sector of FDI and catching the attention of tech giants like apple and many others.

After the success of the vote of no-confidence movement against the former prime minister Imran Khan, the economic situation got worst due to the political instability and turmoil and the subsequent changes in policies added further instability to an economy already reeling from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the Financial Times, the country is on the brink of bankruptcy and the situation is not far from that of Sri Lanka which already declared bankruptcy on 09 July 2022. These economic crises have brought down the Foreign Reserves to the lowest in Pakistan’s history and the country has been hit by mind-boggling inflation.

However, amidst these challenges, it is crucial to address the innovation gap in Pakistan. One critical factor stifling innovation is the insufficient investment in research and development (R&D). The government and private sector must allocate a larger share of their budgets to R&D, fostering collaboration between academia, industry, and research institutions. Encouraging public-private partnerships and providing tax incentives for R&D activities can help create an environment conducive to innovation.

Developing a vibrant entrepreneurship ecosystem requires providing access to capital, simplifying regulatory procedures, and offering mentorship programs. The government should establish startup incubators, accelerators, and entrepreneurship centers, ensuring entrepreneurs receive the necessary support and guidance to transform their ideas into successful ventures.

Moreover, Pakistan’s education system, although making strides, still faces significant challenges. The emphasis on rote memorization and outdated teaching methods limits critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills among students. To bridge the innovation gap, educational reforms must prioritize practical, hands-on learning, promote entrepreneurship, and encourage interdisciplinary studies.

Another impediment to innovation is the weak intellectual property rights protection that undermines innovation by discouraging inventors and creators from investing in new ideas. Strengthening IPR laws and implementing effective enforcement mechanisms will foster a climate of innovation, attracting both domestic and foreign investment. Besides this, the change in spending patterns is also crucial for the revival of Pakistan’s economy. It must be brought under observations and expenditure should be based on R&D when it comes to the revival of our collapsing economy. Federal regulating agencies must make sure of the policies that are directed toward the export-based economy and local production.

To utilize and practically apply the research conducted with the collaboration of institutes and young and enthusiastic research in the universities being led by the best professors and Ph.D. scholars, cooperation and collaboration must be carried out within the domain of research institutions, Universities, and Industries. Intelligent and competent researchers and policy-makers should be incentivized to promote innovation. Encouraging research solely for the self-interest of university professors, as per the HEC policies, is counterproductive. Implementation of research findings in industrial fields should be a priority.

Also, revamping the education system to prioritize critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills is crucial. Encouraging interdisciplinary studies and practical learning experiences, such as internships and industry collaborations, will better prepare students for the demands of the modern economy.

New Political Changes In South Asia

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (L), Pakistan's Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (C) and Afghanistan's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, pose after a meeting in Islamabad

Chinese and Afghan Foreign Ministers Chen Gong and Maulvi Amir Matuqi’s arrival in Islamabad showed a symbol of new political changes in South Asia. The Afghan Taliban have long been facing UN Security Council sanctions, the purchase of assets’ weapons, and travel sanctions, but the Interim Foreign Minister of Afghanistan, was given travel permission by the UN Security Council earlier this month and was allowed to travel to Pakistan. After attending the fifth phase of the trilateral talks, China and Afghan Foreign Ministers discussed bilateral issues with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, but Maulvi Amir Matuqi also met with the leadership of Pakistan’s religious and Pashtun nationalist parties in whom he get the Pakistani public opinion about the Taliban. This was the first visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister to Pakistan, but Amir Matuqi last time in November 2021 came to Islamabad a few months after the Afghan Taliban took control of Kabul. Before attending the Afghan Minister’s trilateral conference, the United Nations hosted a conference on Afghanistan in Doha to which Taliban rulers were not invited, so the UN Doha Conference in Qatar due to the non-participation of the Afghan leadership, was fruitless. Addressing the Doha conference on May 2, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the Taliban’s ban on girls’ education in Afghanistan, saying that we did not remain silent on attacks on women’s rights.

Addressing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Goa, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari urged the international community to take meaningful engagement with the interim Afghan government. We must avoid repeating past mistakes. The third participant of the talks, China, has significant economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan, while Beijing is a key economic and defense partner of Pakistan. It made a big investment in Middle East oil by investing $ 60 billion of huge investment in the Pak-China Economic Transit Project. China is now leading to the disposal of Russia’s and the Central Asian states’ energy reserves and the economic markets of Eastern Europe. Chinese companies are currently investing in Afghanistan. A Chinese firm signed a multi-million dollar investment agreement with Afghan authorities in January this year, which was considered the first major foreign investment in the country since the Taliban took over in August 2021. In March 2022, Wang Yi had a surprise visit to Kabul and called on Taliban officials to resolve various issues, including political relations, economic and transit cooperation.

Both Chinese and Pakistani officials have said in the past that they will welcome the Taliban-led Afghanistan to the China -Pakistan Economic Transit Plan for billions of dollars. Afghanistan is sitting on an important geographical trade and transit route between South and Central Asia, as well as billions of dollars worth of unused mineral resources. In August 2021, the Taliban took over the country’s management, filling the political gap created after a long war of US-led foreign forces spanned over 20 years. According to some political analysts, relations with the Acting Foreign Minister’s visit to Pakistan will improve relations with neighbors and other countries in the region. Especially in the current situation when Afghanistan suffers from the worst economic and political isolation

These meetings may prove to be a positive step towards developing political understanding. The fact is that no one has recognized the Taliban government even after eighteen months. It seems that Taliban authorities have hindered human rights violations. The implications that launched a campaign to cut off the global financial system are still in pursuit of the Taliban. Despite all this, the Taliban have been trying to prove their legal status by taking control of Afghan embassies abroad, most of which are still run by diplomats appointed by the previous government. The Taliban claim a diplomatic presence in 14 countries except for Tajikistan, took control of embassies in Russia, China, Turkey and Indonesia. Although the Taliban took over the Afghan embassy in China in April 2022, they could not take control of any Afghan mission in the West. Western countries have indicated the Taliban to give comprehensive women’s rights and a condition of breaking ties with terrorist organizations, but the Taliban refuses to share force and lay women’s freedoms.

Last month, the Taliban controlled the Afghan embassy in Turkmenistan and the consulate in the United Arab Emirates and took over the Afghan embassy system in Tehran in February. It seems that the Taliban’s next target will be Tajikistan, which is the only neighboring country that hosted the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, in addition to publicly rejecting the Taliban’s return to power. Last month, Taliban officials claimed that their personnel visited the Afghan consulate in the eastern city of Khorog, but Tajik officials did not comment. Afghan Ambassador to Dushanbe Mohammad Zahir Azabar said they suspect the Taliban did not publish photos of visits and meetings but was engaged in secret talks with the Tajik government. Despite the resistance for a year and a half, the NRF has not achieved much success. Taliban forces largely crushed armed opposition like NRF. Therefore, the Tajik government is now trying to balance the Taliban officials in Afghanistan and is busy keeping the resistance group in Tajikistan.

History Is Turning Upside Down


Business communities all over the world especially exporters, importers, money exchange operators, and countries whose national reserves are in dollars, besides those who write and speak on world affairs, are anxiously awaiting June 1. It should be remembered that at this time America is facing a test in the form of increasing the total national debt limit. If the US defaults, which is still highly likely, it will deal a huge blow to global markets and the economy. Its effects will be visible only in the United States, and in the form of a crisis, it will cover the whole world. Among these, the top two negative effects will appear in the form of unemployment and inflation. Apart from this, the signs of major changes in world politics will also be noticeable that has already started happening.

America is facing a test in the form of increasing the total national debt limit. If the US defaults, which is still highly likely, it will deal a huge blow to global markets and the economy.

The United States currently owns a quarter of the world’s economy and is the world’s largest economy. If it defaults (which is more likely because two of its biggest banks have already defaulted), business people around the world who export their goods to the US will suffer a huge blow. Americans have the highest standard of living in the world. The goods used there are not only related to basic amenities but luxury items are also considered in this category. It is a basic principle of economics that higher profits in trade are in goods that fall under the category of convenience and luxury. America imports three trillion dollars worth of goods annually. America imports more than thirty billion dollars worth of goods every year. The United States is the world’s largest importer in terms of quantity and reliability. If it defaults, this trade will almost come to a standstill, and trading companies around the world will suffer. Similarly, there is a credit problem in the trading companies, which will lead to the risk of sinking.

In addition, the United States annually sends goods worth two and a half trillion dollars to other countries, which means that the share of the United States in world trade is about five and a half trillion dollars, while the total volume of world trade is about 28 trillion dollars. Now the situation becomes more clear and easy to understand that 5.5 trillion dollars of the 28 trades are related to the US alone. It accounts for about a quarter of the world’s total trade. A US default, therefore, threatens to wipe out a quarter of global trade. This will adversely affect the employment of people around the world who are connected to the US economy. The most interesting thing is that these victims will include America’s rival and biggest rival, China. The countries from which China imports the most goods are its neighboring countries, which are called ASEAN countries. The countries of the European Union are in second place, while the United States is in third place. Let us explain that the most beneficial trade for China is with the US. Last year, China imported $177 billion worth of goods from the US, while exports to the US were worth $581 billion. China’s largest export market individually is the United States. If we put the above data in front of us, then it is known that there is a difference of 400 billion dollars in mutual trade between China and the United States, in other words, China gets about 400 billion dollars annually from this trade and the same amount to the United States. There is a trade deficit. Experts believe that China and Europe will benefit the most from this situation, whose trade and economy will flourish further. Similarly, one scenario will be that China will also become the number one in world trade. In other words, China will fill America’s gap not only well but very easily and it is ready for it. It is quite possible that in the ongoing cold war for global political governance, Europe will come out of the hands of the United States and stand with China in economic or trade terms.

United States annually sends goods worth two and a half trillion dollars to other countries, which means that the share of the United States in world trade is about five and a half trillion dollars, while the total volume of world trade is about 28 trillion dollars. Now the situation becomes more clear and easy to understand that 5.5 trillion dollars of the 28 trades are related to the US alone.

It should be remembered that Europe was the first field in the Cold War between Russia and the United States. In this war, the United States was successful because the large and important countries of Europe preferred to be part of the American bloc with a clear majority, while in Eastern Europe, the weak and small countries, numbering only six, were annexed by Russia. Russia’s power and coercion contributed more to this accession than to pleasure. Now the wheel of history is turning upside down. It can go even further because China is doing the exact opposite of America. She is making other countries his counterpart, not militarily, politically, and ideologically, but only on a commercial basis. In the same way, the European countries find themselves breaking out of American influence and becoming internationally independent.

China has started giving other countries their share in regional and global politics. China has stepped up its mediation efforts on the Ukraine issue. Apart from Germany, Saudi Arabia is the country on which China has increased its dependence. Now Saudi Arabia is not only playing its role in reducing Pakistan’s political tension, but a few days ago the President of Ukraine also visited Saudi Arabia. The purpose of this visit was only to get help from Saudi Arabia to settle Ukraine’s war with Russia. China can be clearly seen behind this growing global role of Saudi Arabia. After the Saudi-Iran reconciliation due to China, Iran has also opened a trade center along the Pakistan border. Now the flag of peace and friendship is being raised on all borders except India for Pakistan. Now see what happens.

Strategic Countermeasures – Pakistan’s Missile Systems Counter Indian BrahMos on SU-30


It is necessary to remain abreast with the developments of Pakistan’s archrival in the South Asian region. The integration of BrahMos missiles on the SU-30 fighter jet has several implications for the South Asian region, particularly for Pakistan and China. Some potential implications may include, increased Indian offensive capabilities as the BrahMos missile is known for its supersonic speed and precision, this enhances the offensive capabilities of the SU-30 fighter jet. This integration allows for long-range precision strikes, which can significantly impact military strategies in the region. The inclusion of BrahMos missiles on the SU-30 creates a strong deterrent. The extended range and advanced capabilities of these missiles can influence the decision-making processes of Pakistan and China.The integration of BrahMos missiles on the SU-30 can potentially alter the strategic balance between countries in the region. It may prompt other countries to reassess their military postures and defense strategies, which could lead to an arms race in the region. The integration of BrahMos missiles enhances its defensive capabilities.

The increased strike capabilities of Indian fighter jets could potentially impact Pakistan’s defense and necessitate countermeasures. China, as a close ally of Pakistan, may view the integration of BrahMos missiles on the SU-30 as a threat to its strategic interests.

The BrahMos missile integration on the SU-30 poses concerns for Pakistan. The increased strike capabilities of Indian fighter jets could potentially impact Pakistan’s defense and necessitate countermeasures. China, as a close ally of Pakistan, may view the integration of BrahMos missiles on the SU-30 as a threat to its strategic interests. It may lead to China reassessing its own military capabilities and deployments in the region. The deployment of advanced missile systems in the region has the potential to affect the overall stability of South Asia. The reactions and countermeasures from different countries can escalate tensions and potentially destabilize the region. These implications are based on the capabilities of the BrahMos missiles and the geopolitical dynamics of the region. The actual impact will depend on various factors, including the strategic decisions and responses of the involved countries.

To counter the strategic threat posed by the integration of Indian BrahMos missiles on the SU-30 for the Pakistan Air Force and other military forces some counter measures include, such as investing in research and development to devise effective countermeasures against the BrahMos missile system. This includes Pakistan’s advanced anti-aircraft systems, electronic warfare capabilities, and missile defense systems. Strengthening of air defense in required, as enhanced air defense capabilities by acquiring and deploying advanced surface-to-air missile systems. These systems are to be capable of detecting, tracking, and intercepting fast-moving and highly maneuverable targets like the SU-30 armed with BrahMos missiles. Similarly, upgrade and modernize aircraft by focusing on upgrading and modernizing existing aircraft platforms in the Pakistan Air Force. This includes enhancing avionics, radar systems, and incorporating advanced electronic warfare suites to improve overall combat capabilities. Furthermore, develop stealth technology by investing in the development of stealth technology for aircraft and missiles. Stealth technology can help reduce vulnerability to detection and interception, thereby increasing survivability in the face of advanced missile systems. It is paramount to enhance intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities to gather timely and accurate information about enemy deployments, including the location and movements of the SU-30 aircraft armed with BrahMos missiles. This information is crucial for effective response planning.

Moreover, forge international alliances to Strengthen defense cooperation and forge strategic alliances with countries that possess advanced military capabilities and technologies. Pakistan collaborating with other China can provide access to cutting-edge defense systems and expertise, which can help counter the threat posed by the BrahMos missiles. There is need to emphasize on training and simulation, to enhance training programs and conduct realistic simulations to prepare pilots and ground personnel for potential scenarios involving the BrahMos-equipped SU-30. This includes training on evasive maneuvers, missile defense techniques, and effective use of countermeasures.

It is crucial for Pakistan to develop multi-Layered defense system, to Implement a multi-layered defense strategy that combines various capabilities, such as air defense systems, electronic warfare, and offensive capabilities, to create a robust and comprehensive defense against the BrahMos-equipped SU-30.

It is important to invest in cybersecurity and strengthen measures to protect critical military infrastructure from potential cyber threats that could target command and control systems, radar systems, and communication networks. To engage in diplomatic efforts to address the regional security concerns posed by the integration of BrahMos missiles. Foster dialogue, promote confidence-building measures, and explore diplomatic solutions to mitigate tensions and promote stability in the region.

Maintaining strategic balance, and the specific measures to counter the threat posed by the BrahMos-equipped SU-30 would require careful assessment and planning by the Pakistan Air Force and military leadership. Pakistan missiles/weapons can come at par (strategically) with the Indian Brahmos on Su30 to challenge the Indian move.

It is important to note that the BrahMos missile is a highly capable weapon system, there are certain missiles and weapons in the Pakistani arsenal that can pose strategic challenges to the Indian BrahMos on the SU-30.

Develop and deploy a comprehensive ballistic missile defense (BMD) system to counter potential missile threats from Indian platforms, including the BrahMos. This could include land-based interceptor missiles and radar systems for early warning and tracking. While it is important to note that the BrahMos missile is a highly capable weapon system, there are certain missiles and weapons in the Pakistani arsenal that can pose strategic challenges to the Indian BrahMos on the SU-30. The Babur cruise missile, developed by Pakistan, is a land-attack cruise missile with a range of over 700 km. It is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. The Babur missile provides Pakistan with a comparable stand-off capability against ground targets.

Ra’ad Air-Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) also known as Hatf-8, is an air-launched cruise missile developed by Pakistan. It is designed to be carried by aircraft, including the JF-17 Thunder. With a range of over 350 km, the Ra’ad missile can effectively challenge the BrahMos in terms of air-launched cruise missile capabilities. Harbah Anti-Ship Cruise Missile is a coastal defense weapon developed by Pakistan. It has a range of around 450 km and can be launched from both land-based and ship-based platforms. The Harbah missile poses a threat to naval assets, including ships, as well as naval bases along the coastline. Pakistan’s Shaheen series of ballistic missiles, including Shaheen-II and Shaheen-III, are medium to long-range missiles capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads. These ballistic missiles provide Pakistan with the ability to strike targets deep within Indian territory, presenting a strategic challenge.

Pakistan possesses various anti-aircraft defense systems, such as the LY-80 (HQ-16) and FM-90 air defense systems. These systems are designed to counter airborne threats, including fighter jets, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Strategic parity involves a comprehensive assessment of multiple factors, including missile capabilities, range, accuracy, countermeasures, and overall military strategies. Additionally, the effectiveness of these systems depends on various factors, including training, maintenance, and the ability to integrate them into a cohesive defense strategy.

To effectively counter the Indian BrahMos missile on the Su-30, Pakistan considers the following measures. Enhanced strengthening air defense systems is crucial. Pakistan can acquire and deploy advanced surface-to-air missile systems with capabilities to detect, track, and intercept fast-moving and highly maneuverable targets like the Su-30 armed with BrahMos missiles. Establishing an integrated air defense network that combines various radar systems, command and control centers, and surface-to-air missile batteries can enhance situational awareness and response capabilities against the BrahMos-equipped Su-30. Developing and deploying advanced electronic warfare systems can disrupt or deceive enemy radars and communication systems, reducing the effectiveness of the BrahMos missile and impeding its successful deployment. Invest in research and development of stealth technology for aircraft and missiles. Incorporating stealth features into Pakistani aircraft can help reduce vulnerability to detection and interception by the BrahMos-equipped Su-30.

Establishing an integrated air defense network that combines various radar systems, command and control centers, and surface-to-air missile batteries can enhance situational awareness and response capabilities against the BrahMos-equipped Su-30.

It’s important to emphasize that effectively countering the BrahMos-equipped Su-30 requires a comprehensive and multi-layered approach, considering various military capabilities, technology advancements, and evolving strategic dynamics. Pakistan should continuously assess and adapt its defense strategies to maintain deterrence and ensure regional stability. The strategic balance between countries is a complex and dynamic issue, and it requires continuous evaluation and adaptation of military capabilities to maintain deterrence and regional stability.

The Shifting Tides and Indonesian Observation of China Post Saudi-Iran Peaceful Restoration


In a world where diplomacy is often as vital as physical might, China’s successful role in brokering the Saudi-Iran Peaceful Restoration cannot be overstated. This diplomatic victory seems to have drastically altered the perceptions of China across the globe, notably in Indonesia, a nation that maintains growing relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran. This analysis aims to examine the evolving perception of China in Indonesian media and its potential impact on the broader diplomatic landscape.

Before delving into Indonesia’s perspective, it’s crucial to appreciate China’s role in the peace deal. As emphasized by the Foreign Policy report, this peace plan was a significant breakthrough, clearly demonstrating China’s growing diplomatic influence. The reconciliation of Saudi Arabia and Iran, two prominent Middle Eastern powers historically at odds, denotes a profound shift in regional stability that is sure to have global implications. The peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as signed by Iranian security official Ali Shamkhani and Saudi national security adviser Musaid bin Muhammad Al-Aiban, symbolizes a new era of diplomatic relations.

China’s pivotal role in this accord is undeniable and presents a clear image of its burgeoning power and influence on the global stage.

Indonesia’s perception of this deal is particularly significant given its growing relationships with Iran and Saudi Arabia. The peace deal is poised to have a profound effect on Indonesia’s engagements in the Middle East. As a majority-Muslim nation, Indonesia has historic and cultural ties to both countries, and maintaining balanced relations has always been a strategic necessity. China’s role in fostering harmony between these nations therefore also plays a direct role in Indonesia’s diplomatic maneuverings.

As for Indonesian media, the perception of China post-deal is intriguingly complex. There seems to be a consensus to some extent that regional instability in the Middle East had previously been an outcome of reckless US strategic actions. Thus, China’s successful mediation presents a stark contrast to previous US tactics, potentially providing China with increased credibility and favor in the Indonesian public eye.

Yet, the perception of China is not unilaterally positive. It is vital to note that Indonesia, like many nations, must navigate its relationships with both the US and China, two of the world’s superpowers, carefully. While this successful mediation by China undoubtedly bolsters its image, it does not entirely erase previous concerns over China’s expansive South China Sea claims, which conflict with Indonesia’s own territorial claims.

Thus, the Indonesian perception of China remains nuanced, balancing appreciation for its diplomatic successes with a healthy skepticism of its regional ambitions.

The peace deal also signifies China’s expanding influence in the Middle East, which has traditionally been an area of strategic concern for the United States. The peace agreement indicates a shift in Middle Eastern countries’ foreign policy alignment, which could prompt Indonesia to re-evaluate its relationships within the region.

Another critical aspect to consider is the economic implications of the peace deal. China has been Indonesia’s significant trade partner, and the peaceful restoration between Saudi Arabia and Iran could potentially open new avenues for trade and economic cooperation. Given Indonesia’s considerable Muslim population and the religious significance of Saudi Arabia and Iran, a stable Middle East could enhance Indonesia’s diplomatic, economic, and cultural exchanges with these nations.

The broader implications of this changing perception for Indonesia’s diplomacy are significant. With China demonstrating a capable hand at conflict resolution, it may inspire Indonesia to seek Chinese assistance or collaboration in resolving its own diplomatic challenges. However, this must be weighed against Indonesia’s strategic autonomy and its relationships with other major powers.

Furthermore, it opens up opportunities for Indonesia to explore new avenues of cooperation with Iran and Saudi Arabia, now that their reconciliation has somewhat stabilized the Middle East region.

Indonesia’s engagements in the Middle East could consequently evolve, potentially facilitating improved relations, increased trade, and cultural exchange.

In sum, China’s successful mediation of the Saudi-Iran peace deal has indeed swayed Indonesia’s perception, presenting China as a capable diplomatic player in the global arena. Yet, this perception is nuanced, with Indonesia continuing to balance its diplomatic relationships. As Indonesia observes China’s evolving role in international politics, it is certain to influence their own strategies within the complex web of global diplomacy. This fascinating dynamic underscore the fluid nature of international relations, where the ripples of a single event can alter the currents of perception across the world.

President Putin, South Africa, and the International Criminal Court: A Tumultuous Triangle


The dynamics of international justice are often fraught with complexities, underscored by a delicate balance between sovereignty, accountability, and diplomacy. An emblematic case is the ongoing debate surrounding South Africa’s stance towards the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant for Russian President Vladim ir Putin.

As reported by Al Jazeera, in early May 2023, Ronald Lamola, South Africa’s Justice Minister, criticized the ICC for inconsistency in its work. This comment came on the heels of the ICC’s decision to issue an arrest warrant for President Putin. The indictment accused the Russian leader of personal responsibility for the abduction of Ukrainian individuals, as elaborated by CBC News.

It is crucial to understand the significance of South Africa’s critique within the broader international context. South Africa has long been a vocal advocate for a more representative and balanced global justice system. The criticism aimed at the ICC can be interpreted as a reflection of ongoing debates about the Court’s impartiality and effectiveness. These concerns are amplified by the perception that the ICC disproportionately targets African leaders while seemingly overlooking atrocities elsewhere.

As the Putin case unfolded, South Africa planned a significant change to its domestic law concerning cooperation with the ICC.

The intention was to equip itself with the power to decide whether or not to arrest a leader wanted by the ICC, as revealed by a deputy minister’s statement to the BBC.

This decision is arguably a substantial development in international justice and domestic law. It could potentially undermine the ICC’s authority, whose jurisdiction is based on the cooperation of state parties. At the same time, it can also be seen as South Africa’s effort to maintain a sovereign say in complex international matters and prevent automatic alignment with ICC’s decisions that may prove diplomatically problematic.

Turning to the case of President Putin, the issuance of an arrest warrant by the ICC was a significant move. It is worth noting that Russia is not a member of the ICC, having never ratified the Rome Statute that underpins the Court’s existence. Therefore, enforcing the warrant falls to the nations that are members of the Court and willing to risk straining diplomatic ties with Russia.

The current situation highlights some of the difficulties the ICC often faces. The Court’s jurisdiction is primarily centered on countries that have agreed to its mandate, and even within these countries, compliance is voluntary.

When nations like South Africa begin to question the ICC’s decisions and adopt a more selective approach to enforcement, it poses serious challenges to the Court’s global legitimacy and effectiveness.

These recent developments bring into focus the need for ongoing dialogue and reform of international justice mechanisms. South Africa’s stance highlights the tension between the need for a global platform for accountability and the complexities of international diplomacy. Similarly, the Putin case points to the hurdles faced by the ICC in enforcing its mandates, especially when dealing with powerful non-member states.

Moving forward, it is vital for international justice to strike a balance between the respect for national sovereignty and the imperative of enforcing accountability for gross violations of human rights. The events involving South Africa, President Putin, and the ICC provide a critical opportunity for reflection on how best to navigate these turbulent waters.

As the world watches how these events unfold, these issues bring to the forefront the profound complexities of international justice. It underscores the importance of collective responsibility in ensuring that those accused of gross human rights violations are held accountable. This South African saga, coupled with the Putin case, should motivate a deeper examination of the ICC’s role, its challenges, and potential pathways for reform.

The situation in Ukraine also stands to be influenced by South Africa’s proposed change in its domestic law. This legislation could set a precedent for other nations, leading to a selective approach towards the enforcement of ICC decisions, which could have direct implications on Ukraine’s quest for justice.

Conclusively, the intricate interplay between South Africa, President Putin, the ICC, and Ukraine paints a complex picture of international justice. As South Africa navigates its stance, Ukraine awaits justice, and the ICC grapples with enforcement challenges, the world is reminded of the precarious balance between accountability and diplomacy. These developments underscore the need for a comprehensive, fair, and inclusive approach to global justice that respects national sovereignty while ensuring that gross violations of human rights are met with appropriate accountability.

The Crumbling Facade of the EU Empire: Regional Impacts and Beyond


When looking at the European Union (EU), it’s hard not to draw parallels to an empire. Consisting of 27 member states post-Brexit, the EU spans across a significant portion of the continent, with a common legislative, economic, and political framework tying these diverse nations together. Yet, recent developments, both within and outside the EU, have sparked concerns about the bloc’s future and influence, as illustrated by Con Coughlin in The Telegraph.

The re-election of President Erdogan, notwithstanding Brussels’ objections, reflects a weakening geopolitical influence of the EU. As the bloc grapples with a constellation of internal and external challenges, it stands at a pivotal juncture, facing existential questions and their far-reaching implications for the region and beyond.

A key internal factor contributing to the perceived “crumbling” is the rising tide of nationalism and Euroscepticism within member states. Brexit marked a historic turning point, setting a precedent for member states’ departure from the union. The internal dynamics of the EU have since shown signs of strain, with the ‘ever closer union’ vision appearing increasingly contentious.

Nationalist and populist movements are gaining ground in countries like Poland and Hungary, threatening the EU’s foundational principles and shared values.

This growing discord is symptomatic of a broader struggle between the ideals of national sovereignty and a collective European identity, marking a possible departure from the EU’s original mission of fostering peace, stability, and cooperation in the post-Second World War era.

Further, the EU’s handling of economic crises and global challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic has been met with criticism. Economic disparities among member states and perceived institutional dysfunction have fostered discontent and further inflamed Euroscepticism.

Meanwhile, the external geopolitical landscape is rapidly evolving, adding more pressure to the EU’s strained fabric. The resurgence of China, Russia’s unpredictability, and the United States’ shifting priorities have fundamentally altered the global power dynamics, challenging the EU’s consensus-driven decision-making model.

President Erdogan’s re-election in Turkey signifies this shift in geopolitical influence. The fact that the election proceeded despite the EU’s reservations underscores Brussels’ dwindling geopolitical clout. This instance, among others, points to the EU’s limited leverage, underlining the difficulty in promoting its norms and values beyond its borders.

However, the potential “crumbling” of the EU’s metaphorical empire is not merely an internal problem; it will have profound regional and global implications. Within the region, the EU’s ability to inspire and influence reforms in neighboring countries could diminish.

The Western Balkans, for instance, have looked to EU membership as a path towards political and economic stability. However, the enlargement process has been slow, burdened by domestic resistance and internal divisions within the EU.

A weakened EU might further slow this process, prolonging uncertainty in a region already beset by economic and political difficulties.

Beyond the immediate region, the weakening of the EU could potentially destabilize the broader geopolitical equilibrium. The EU has traditionally been a significant actor in international diplomacy, contributing to global governance, peacekeeping, and development aid. A less influential EU may alter the balance in global forums like the United Nations and other international negotiations, including climate change, international trade, and human rights.

Finally, it’s crucial to consider the economic impacts. The EU represents one of the world’s largest single markets and economic blocs. Any significant disruptions within the EU could send shockwaves across global markets, affecting international trade, investments, and financial stability.

Nevertheless, a note of caution is warranted in interpreting these developments. While the EU faces considerable challenges, it has demonstrated resilience in the past and has the potential to reform and adapt.

Indeed, the assertion that the “EU Empire is crumbling” might be a reflection of specific perspectives. As pointed out by an article on Modern Diplomacy, the British press, following the Brexit, has shown a propensity to emphasize the EU’s difficulties, as illustrated in the aforementioned Telegraph comment. Therefore, the narrative of a “crumbling EU Empire” should be taken in context and not viewed as an inevitable outcome.

The EU is undoubtedly confronting significant trials that could potentially impact its future trajectory and its regional and global influence. However, how it navigates these challenges and adapts to evolving circumstances will ultimately determine the lasting impact on the region and the world at large. Rather than focusing on the narrative of a ‘crumbling empire,’ it is more constructive to look at how the EU can reform and evolve to address its current challenges and continue playing a significant role in the global arena.


The Emergence of a Sino-Russian World Order: A New Dawn or a False Dawn?


In recent years, the world has seen a rapid shift in power dynamics with a resurgence of two formidable forces in the international scene, namely China and Russia. In the current global political discourse, there are arguments in favor of a Sino-Russian-led world order as a more democratic and peaceful alternative to the US-dominated hegemony. But the question remains: Is this perceived Sino-Russian-led world order indeed a better choice for the globe?

An important question that underpins this debate is the inherent difference in Chinese and Russian views on the global order and governance. While they are seen by many as allies working towards a shared goal, their fundamental outlooks vary, which can influence their approach to shaping the world order.

China, a prime beneficiary of the post-Cold War order, has shown a vested interest in maintaining international institutions and processes, even as it seeks to turn them to its advantage.

This approach of ‘working within the system’ indicates a willingness to uphold certain facets of the current global order while seeking to influence its trajectory.

In contrast, Russia often operates on the principle of circumventing the system, implying that it may prefer a certain amount of disorder or disruption in the existing world order.

This is reflective of a divergent approach and poses potential challenges in harmonizing a Sino-Russian-led global order.

Furthermore, despite appearances of Sino-Russian solidarity, there is evidence suggesting that the two countries pursue separate agendas with little or no reference to each other. Their collaboration is visible in international bodies such as the UN Security Council, where they frequently coordinate their voting, particularly in vetoing Western-sponsored resolutions. However, their independent policy pursuits indicate that their alliance may be more rooted in strategic convenience than in a shared vision for a new world order.

Delving into the implications of a Sino-Russian-led world order, we must consider a number of factors. Firstly, global peace and democracy are areas of concern. Both China and Russia have faced international criticism over their domestic human rights records and attitudes towards democratic norms. This raises questions about how these issues might be reflected and potentially magnified on a global scale under their leadership.

Secondly, a Sino-Russian-led world order might replace one form of hegemony with another. Instead of a US-dominated order, the world could find itself grappling with a new hegemony led by China and Russia. This change does not necessarily signify a more democratic or peaceful global system, but instead underscores the need for a diverse, equitable, and inclusive world order.

Thirdly, economic implications cannot be overlooked. With China being the world’s second-largest economy and Russia possessing abundant natural resources, their leadership could drastically shift the global economic balance. However, concerns about market access, fair trade, and respect for intellectual property rights, especially considering China’s controversial practices in these areas, would likely intensify.

Finally, the proposition of a Sino-Russian-led world order could significantly affect global geopolitics. Western nations might respond by strengthening their alliances and partnerships to counterbalance this emerging power structure. For instance, the idea of seeking an accommodation with Moscow to weaken the Sino-Russian partnership has already been suggested.

While it is undeniably the case that the global order must evolve to reflect the changing dynamics of power, the nature of this evolution is crucial.

It’s pertinent to remember that the key pillars of a global order should ideally include respect for sovereignty, adherence to international law, upholding human rights, and promoting economic development and stability.

The assertion of a Sino-Russian-led world order prompts questions about these pillars. Would this new order prioritize these principles? Or would it propagate a different set of values altogether? If so, what would be the impact on the world’s nations, particularly those that have for decades operated under a different system?

Finally, while a Sino-Russian-led world order might seem a tantalizing proposition to some, it’s clear that it raises just as many questions as it provides answers. The better choice for the globe may not be about choosing between US-led or Sino-Russian-led orders, but about creating a more inclusive, fair, and equitable world order that respects diversity and ensures peace and prosperity for all.