ISLAMABAD – Two Chinese engineers were killed and another injured in the latest terror attack on Sunday evening, coinciding with the PTI’s attempt to storm Islamabad, amid Pakistan’s efforts to attract Chinese investment through CPEC.

Meanwhile, the outlawed Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it involved an improvised explosive device (IED).

The terrorist group has targeted Chinese nationals on multiple occasions in the past as well.

It raises serious questions about the motives and timing, given the fact that Pakistan is set to host the Shanghai Cooperation Council (SCO) Summit next week on Oct 15 and 16.

The mega event is preceded by the arrival of Prime Minister Li Qiang in Islamabad on Oct 14, who will be first the top leader from China to visit Pakistan in over a decade.

Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch on Monday condemned the Karachi terrorist attack and targeting the Chinese nationals. The blast was so powerful that over a dozen vehicles were also either destroyed or damaged.

Earlier in the day, the Chinese embassy in Islamabad asked “the Pakistani side to thoroughly investigate the attack, severely punish the perpetrators, and take all necessary measures to protect the safety of Chinese citizens, institutions and projects in Pakistan.”

Meanwhile, one cannot ignore the global politics.

“The critical point to note is the role of spoilers outside the region, which are against Chinese economic and global leadership status,” said Prof Shabana Fayyaz of Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. “They are also at work here.”

“What’s happening in Pakistan vis-à-vis CPEC also needs to be approached from this angle,” she emphasized.

MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT:

But it isn’t just China and the SCO, that provide an alternative to the US-dominated world order, as Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expanded his aggression to Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen after killing more than 42,000 Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Thus, Israel clearly wants to drag everyone into a direct military conflict that no one in the region wants.

How the US is going to resist the temptation remains the most vital question after the powerful far-right elements in the country have been presented with an opportunity by Netanyahu to target Iran. Thus, people like John Bolton are now calling vociferously for regime change in Iran.

So, a holistic view of the current developments presents an alarming trend, as Pakistan has been witnessing a rise in terror attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. This trend is a product of a “well thought out decision” made by the then prime minister Imran Khan, under which he allowed the TTP terrorists to resettle in the country.

Imran has been advocating the cause of the Afghan Taliban as well as of al Qaeda, besides offering to open the offices of TTP, in the past. It was only a matter of time before the Afghan Taliban returned the favor. No wonder, Imran is known as Taliban Khan.

That’s why Mushahid Hussain Sayed – who served as a senator and federal minister – cites geopolitics is one of the main reasons behind the rising terrorism in Pakistan. He mentions Indian isolation in South Asia and India’s role in the New Cold War against China as the factors in this connection.

However, Mushahid Hussain also sees the administrative vacuum in Pakistan due to a “weak” and “ineffectual government” as the reason.

SECURITY BREACH:

Ihsanullah Tipu, an Islamabad-based journalist who covers terrorism in the region, described the terror attack as a serious security breach.

He says it is clear that the terrorists had complete information about the movement of these Chinese. The ability to target them near a sensitive location near the Jinnah International Airport also shows their reach and a complete failure on the part of the security apparatus to protect the Chinese working in Pakistan.

IMPROVISATION VS LACK OF INNOVATION:

According to Tipu, the security and intelligence community in Pakistan has failed to adapt themselves according to the changing times and latest technological developments.

Many planned terror attacks have been foiled in Europe and the US by constantly relying on technology, but this isn’t the case in Pakistan.

On the other hand, the terrorist groups are evolving and improvising continuously, making it very difficult to track their movement and plans, Tipu notes.

Mushahid Hussain too agrees with Tipu, as he says the terrorists are seemingly well-equipped and well-trained as well as more sophisticated in their tactics. The Indian intelligence agency, RAW, is probably working overtime to destabilize Pakistan, he added.

Baloch insurgents have remained very active since the start of 2024, claiming over 200 attacks under the umbrella of the Baloch armed groups Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), says Iftikhar Firdous whose work focuses on violent conflicts and ideologies.

According to Firdous, the bombing squads of BLA (Jeeyand) have carried out major attacks, using more than 24 suicide bombers against sensitive military installations in Bolan, Gwadar, and Kech. It signals a shift in the strategy of these groups from hit-and-run to direct assaults on bases of the Pakistani security forces and intelligence.

On the other hand, there has been a resurgence of the BLA (Azad) faction with attacks, particularly in the Makran and Rakhshan divisions.

This trend, Firdous notes, indicates the ability of these groups to expand their activities.

It is certainly an alarming development, as it begs attention: why and how the terror groups in Balochistan can attract more and more people.

On the other hand, Prof Shabana Fayyaz highlighted another phenomenon. “Unfortunately, economic, social and political disparities in the ecosystem have generated certain groups that act as freelancers in tandem with the outfits like TTP and  BLA, and become proxies of the enemies of both China and Pakistan.”

ZERO ACCOUNTABILITY:

Tipu says the inability to punish the officials concerned means the sense of responsibility remains missing. The maximum punishment given in Pakistan is suspension instead of termination, he regretted.

In this regard, he cited the example of the Dasu and Shangla terror attacks in which Chinese nationals were killed as well as the recent IED blast which targeted a convoy of foreign diplomats in Swat.

According to Tipu, foreign diplomats openly complain that they do not and cannot rely on Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies.

SERIOUS COMPLICATIONS:

Citing past examples, Tipu says Pakistan’s relations with China had experienced a major setback after the terror attacks in Dasu and Shangla, as Beijing had demanded strict action against the perpetrators.

These concerns were shared by the top Chinese leadership, he recalled.

He is right. It was Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif who had to repeatedly apologize and promise security to the investors and leaders during his last visit to China. That’s why he has again visited the Chinese embassy in Islamabad to offer his condolences and expressed his determination to punish the culprits.

Tipu expects a strong reaction from Beijing this time too, which, he says, is justified as the Chinese nationals are being targeted frequently.

Similarly, Mushahid Mushahid feared that China would lose confidence in Pakistan’s ability to protect its citizens. This would be a very negative development for foreign investment, as they would feel unsafe and insecure, he added.

Moreover, Mushahid Hussain also believes such incidents are bad for national morale as internal violence and destabilization spawn insecurity among citizens.

WHY BALOCHISTAN IS THE FOCUS:

Firdous lists three major catalysts for the increased acts of violence in Balochistan. The first is the highly charged political divide and Mahrang Baloch’s march to Islamabad. Second is Pakistan’s relationship with Iran and cross-border missile strikes by both countries. And lastly, foreign investment in Balochistan is seen as “occupationist” in its nature by the insurgent groups, who also claim it’s a prerequisite for further “militarization”.

That’s why Tipu mentions the planned launch of CPEC 2 – the next phase of the Belt and Road Initiative’s flagship project – as a motive to target the Chinese.

SOLVING THE PUZZLE:

Tackling the challenge of terrorism head-on is a must for Pakistan, as internal and external forces can’t afford the country to experience economic progress.

It is a multidimensional task. Pakistan needs to address internal issues as well as external challenges.

That’s why there is an urgent need to address the political issues related to Balochistan with prudence while engaging the locals.

But in the current geopolitical environment where the US and China are practically engaged in a trade war while trying their best to expand their respective sphere of influence, the increase in terrorist acts across Pakistan isn’t a surprise.

Meanwhile, the Afghan Taliban, who are housing the TTP terrorists, in a statement have “advised” Islamabad to solve the prevailing political instability through dialogue. This “advice” directs Islamabad to make peace with the PTI exactly the way they have been asking Pakistan to accept the demands of the TTP.