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TTP: An Emerging Global Terror Threat

By
Shahzad Masood Roomi
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TTP

During a UN Security Council meeting on August 8, 2024, Vladimir Voronkov, the UN Undersecretary-General for Counter-Terrorism, named IS-K (Islamic State-Khorasan) group as the “greatest external terrorist threat” to Europe. This is at a time when its recruitment efforts and financial and logistical capabilities have been rationalized, particularly in the last six months, mainly with the help of Afghan and Central Asian diaspora communities.

IS-K has emerged as a powerful global menace

The rise of IS-K creates a serious threat to regional stability, especially for Afghanistan and its neighbors. The Taliban boasted that it has diminished the operational capacity of IS-K; however, the terrorist group is still gaining resources and recruits from Afghan and Central Asian diasporas. Voronkov warned that unless advanced counter-terrorism strategies with cooperation by the neighboring states are formed, Afghanistan will revert to being a “hotbed of terrorism.”

Fears of IS-K began to mount after the horrific incident that occurred in Russia in March 2024, where the outfit was blamed for an attack on a concert hall in Krasnogorsk, killing 144 people. The claims that IS-K has emerged as such a powerful global menace, without having even a single stronghold in Afghanistan, invite critical questions: How did IS-K become so much powerful? Why is the Taliban regime unable to rein in the group? And finally, is this threat assessment about IS-K match the ground realities in Afghanistan where it is claimed to be based in?

Formed in 2015 as an adversary to the Afghan Taliban, IS-K first clashed with them. The Taliban tried to undermine the influence of IS-K but was further challenged by the recruitment of the TTP members by IS-K. From 2016 to 2019, the Pakistan Army’s anti-terrorism campaign dismantled the TTP strongholds in the country; hence, the TTP was forced to relocate to Afghanistan. During this period many TTP fighters joined IS-K. It wasn’t until August 2021 that IS-K posed any fair challenge to the Taliban’s authority once they regained control in Afghanistan.

The Taliban boasted that it has diminished the operational capacity of IS-K

During this time, Islamabad was always pressing Kabul to curtail the terror activities of TTP inside Pakistan from Afghan territory. Contrarily, the Taliban’s reaction was beyond expectations; they declared TTP as an internal matter of Pakistan despite knowing that the banned outfit’s leadership was residing in Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban practically refused to fulfill the promise according to the Doha Accord of not allowing Afghan soil to be used against any neighboring country. The TTP then swore allegiance to the Taliban, which further complicated Pakistan’s efforts to reduce cross-border terrorism.

The earliest contact between IS-K and TTP was limited to initial cooperation and competition based on their shared goals and the varying landscape of the turf war against the Afghan Taliban. On an ideological front, the Salafi-jihadism of TTP and IS-K made for a good basis in terms of logistics, particularly during joint operations against Pakistani security forces.

As the time went on, though, the Afghan Taliban’s increased collaboration with TTP, after it announced allegiance to their leader, ushered in a decline in IS-K influence in Afghanistan. Hundreds of its fighters switched sides and some of the commanders were eliminated in operations conducted by the special forces of the Afghan Taliban.

A UN report dated July 26, 2020, reported: “The IS-K suffered significant reversals in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar and Kunar provinces.” Despite minimal Afghan government actions against IS-K over the last two years, it continued proclaiming IS-K as an imminent threat to the world, presenting their government as a counter-terrorism partner to the international community. There have been repeated attacks by IS-K against Hazaras since August 2021, causing many casualties, and some even suspect the Afghan Taliban’s complicity in these attacks.

IS-K is a diplomatic ploy the Taliban exploits to deflect international criticism

IS-K, some counterterrorism experts increasingly believe, is a diplomatic ploy the Taliban exploits to deflect international criticism of human rights abuses. This further-ensuring alliance makes TTP an operationally quite effective arm for cross-border terrorism by the Afghan Taliban, a serious security threat even beyond the region, with Pakistan being the prime target.

Several incidents inside Pakistan have been carried out by TTP but for those IS-K has taken the claim. For example, a suicide bombing on a political rally in Bajaur killed more than 60 people in July 2023. Similarly, in September 2023, another suicide attack claimed 52 lives in the Mastung district of Balochistan.

Investigations into all these attacks established that the terror acts had been planned and controlled by the TTP leadership in Afghanistan. In this regard, in November 2023, Islamabad passed a warning to the Afghan Taliban to either stand with Pakistan or the TTP.

However, it seems that the Afghan Taliban have inclined more towards TTP and formed a serious security threat to Pakistan, which has been fighting for the past 22 years. Much like in the post-USSR era, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan left Pakistan alone to deal with the fallout of this hasty decision. The continued coalition between TTP and the Afghan Taliban is far graver a threat to regional security and stability than IS-K alone.

The Afghan Taliban declared TTP as an internal matter of Pakistan

It is high time for the world to revisit the threat assessment emanating from Afghanistan where IS-K is just a bogyman used by TTP and their Afghan Taliban patrons for strategic communication where Afghan Taliban present themselves as the harbingers of some peace and order in the country.

They want the world to ignore all the human rights abuses being carried out by the Kabul regime. TTP is acting as an operational arm primarily targeting Pakistan but has capabilities to carry out terror activities beyond Pakistan and Afghanistan. TTP is the real existential threat to global peace and security and ignoring this threat will only put global peace at greater peril.

China-India Relations And Implications For The Region

By
Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi
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Narendra Modi

India-China relations have long been fractious. The bilateral ties have remained disturbed by an unsettled border, unequal trade relationship, China’s strategic ties to Pakistan, India’s strategic partnership with the US and a broadening political-strategic divergence over each other’s perceived position in Asia and beyond. The relationship has suffered from an acute lack of strategic trust since the June 2020 border clash in Galwan, which reversed much of the progress achieved on the border-management regime that had been patiently negotiated, designed and agreed to over decades between the two countries. The unresolved dispute along the border also impacts the security dynamics and strategic environment of South Asia.

Their relations are also afflicted by a complex and evolving strategic, political and economic interests that over time have converged and diverged. China’s preeminence and influence in the Indian Ocean makes it another arena for the US- China strategic rivalry. Historically, India has been the dominant power in the region and is not comfortable with the phenomenal rise of China, challenging India’s influence on states around the Indian Ocean Rim. This complex interplay of relations between China, the US, India, Pakistan and Russia have serious consequences not just for the region, but for the world in general.

China’s preeminence and influence in the Indian Ocean makes it another arena for the US- China strategic rivalry.

Beijing has enhanced its economic and political influence over the entire Indian Ocean region in the past two decades. It has created a network of commercial facilities, the string of pearls, and strengthened its economic relations with countries of the region, particularly strategically located Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and other Indian Ocean Rim and Pacific nations.

India tried to build strong diplomatic ties with other countries in the region through its “island diplomacy” and initiatives such as the Security and Growth for all in the region maritime cooperation. However, China’s massive investment in through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI) make it quite difficult for India to sustain its economic and political influence in the region.

The world is undergoing profound changes, increasing sources of turbulence and risks around. Significant political, strategic and economic transformation is in the works with clear indications of the world transforming from a unipolar to a multipolar world order. India is aspiring to be one of the pillars of the new world order. Its alignment with the US in the latter’s attempts to restrain the rise of China brings it directly in a confrontational equation with Beijing.

India is aspiring to be one of the pillars of the new world order.

The US and India have substantially expanded their defense budgets incorporating new technologies further enhancing their capabilities. India openly admits that its defense capabilities are aimed against China and supports the US efforts to encircle it.  In the Pacific, Australia, at the behest of the US and as member of QUAD, is now predominantly focusing on the Pacific Islands, Japan, and states situated off the eastern coast of China with difficult bilateral relations with China.

In the northeast of China, we see South Korea clearly demonstrating its preference for the United States in case of any confrontation, while India has been chosen to be the strategic partner in the Indian Ocean region. As a result, India continues to heighten tensions with China and Pakistan. On the other hand, tensions between the United States – and its allies including India – and China are escalating. The violent conflict at Galwan in 2020 clearly emphasized the growing Sino-Indian tensions despite the fact that they are tied together in a complicated tangle of converging and diverging strategic and economic interests. The situation has been made worse by growing nationalism and populism driving internal and international relations in Modi’s India.

China, for its part, is focused on its rivalry with the US. The fact that US Indo-Pacific strategy hinges on India’s support for Washington’s objectives in the region also drives much of the thinking in Beijing about India. China pays particular attention to US-India cooperation on emerging and disruptive technologies, as well as naval logistics. Both India and China are investing in national technological capacities to enhance their prosperity and security in space, communications, cyber security and underwater maritime domains, leaving little room for cooperation.

Despite all this, China has expressed its readiness to work with India to ameliorate their relations and manage their border issues, but the recent strengthening of the relationship between India and Taiwan, especially in technology-related matters, risks turning into a major issue that will make India-China relations more complicated. Both India and China insist that they want to rebuild trust but they cannot agree on the process. Because it currently has the upper hand, China would like trust building to remain a strictly bilateral matter and does not want organizations such as the G20 and the SCO, BRICS and even the ASEAN-led institutions to play any role in the so far hypothetical normalization process.

Both India and China are investing in national technological capacities

At the same time, we see that China has overtaken the US to become India’s largest trading partner, with total bilateral trade reaching $118.4bn in 2023–24. However, the trade balance is heavily in favor of Beijing. India imported over $100bn worth of goods from China in this period, while its exports were only $17bn. India, therefore, has a huge import dependency on China, particularly in the telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, and advanced technology sectors, areas where China is now the world leader. It would, therefore, not be wrong to say that India and China have a binary relationship with internally conflicting dynamic of rivalry and partnership.

India imported over $100bn worth of goods from China in this period, while its exports were only $17bn.

The Indian Ocean is critical to global trade, security, geopolitics and geo-economics. Conflicting alignments of the three dozen littoral states, as countries compete for influence in its crowded waterways, has made this region a potential war theatre. How will the new power dynamics play out – particularly the US-China tensions as well as Pakistan-India and China-India rivalry – is a question that is gaining significance and urgency by the day and further endangering the stability of the region, enhancing challenges for global maritime trade flows. The growing interest of the major powers and the US-China competition in the Indian Ocean has serious implications for Pakistan.

Pakistan is not a member of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), where India is one of the founders.  Pakistan is directly affected by the actions of these three states as China is a friend, India is a foe and the US a transactional partner. The IOR is the future of world politics. With India becoming the sixth largest economy of the world by bypassing France, it naturally has started to reassert itself in the region. The Indian hegemonic ambitions in the IOR are a matter of deep concern for China as it is heavily dependent on the safe and free access to the important trade routes traversing the Indian Ocean.

Developing countries, particularly Pakistan, will face severe challenges alongside with emerging opportunities. It needs to navigate these turbulent waters with great strategic vision and political sagacity if it wants to successfully emerge from this flux as a politically and economically strong nation. Further strengthening its all-weather strategic cooperative partnership with China while maintaining its friendly relations with the US and the Europe will be challenging but that is the only wise course of action to take for Pakistan. Therefore, the coming decades will be the real test of political and strategic farsightedness and a test for its diplomacy.

Under the new circumstances, the Pakistan and China should stand together even more firmly and push forward the all-weather strategic cooperative partnership. CPEC has entered a new stage of high-quality development, and the cooperation between our two sides will have even greater potential. China supports Pakistan in exploring a development path suited to its own national conditions and is willing to share its high-quality development opportunities and contribute to the country’s industrialization, urbanization and digitization. This will strengthen the development foundation, enabling both China and Pakistan to achieve their development goals. Hence, aiming at achieving the high level of human development and national autonomy associated with a high-income status before the centennial anniversaries towards the middle of this century.

Belarus and Azerbaijan: Optimizing Confidence In BRICS membership

By
Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
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BRICS

Russia today is taking another pivotal moment in its history, (with a series of many landmark issues) under its presidency of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), referred to as informal association, consistently forging collaborative relations with developing countries. With the geopolitical situation heightening, tackling multiple challenges remain high on the organization’s agenda.

However, the evolving developments are positive and promising, particularly the increasing number of countries expressing their desire to join BRICS. It shows an interesting and indelible sign which reflects the necessity for the world’s reconfiguration. This factor indicates the urgent need for action to ensure a multifaceted change, a new global architecture embracing geopolitics, economy, and security as well as socio-cultural and humanitarian spheres.

Noticeably, Latin American countries and also in Asia and Africa regions want to join BRICS. There are many reasons including the desire of like-minded countries to deepen their cooperation under BRICS with a proper sense of respect.

In addition, BRICS follows an open-door vision and is committed to the fact that the principles governing this format – mutual respect, balance of interests, and a consensus-based approach – are very appealing. That’s why Belarus and Azerbaijan [former members of the USSR] have recently expressed their interest to become part of the platform.

“Azerbaijan has filed an official application for joining BRICS,” Azerbaijan’s news agency quoted Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Aykhan Hajizada. Baku’s intention to join BRICS was reflected in a joint declaration on strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and China, which was signed on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana in early July.

Apart from that, Azerbaijani parliament speaker, Sakhiba Gafarova, said at a plenary session of the 10th BRICS Parliamentary Forum in St Petersburg on July 11 that her country wanted to be a full-fledged BRICS member.

Russia and Belarus have already formed a Union State. In late July, and even long before that, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko publicly reiterated that Minsk had been invited to the BRICS summit, due to be held in Kazan in October. Lukashenko irreversibly promised Belarus ascension into BRICS. In this regard, he instructed the foreign ministry to draw up a plan for Belarusian participation and bilateral meetings on that platform.

Azerbaijan has filed an official application for joining BRICS.

However, Belarus sees BRICS as a basis for economic development and is ready to join integration processes within the framework of the informal association. “We are interested in getting involved in integration processes in that space. BRICS is another footing to help us maintain balance and economic stability,” the BelTA agency quoted Lukashenko as emphatically asserting.

Belarus and Azerbaijan are former Soviet republics, with common historical backgrounds despite the stark indications of disparity in approach to current politics and economic development, much remains uniquely common in cultural practice and society.

Undoubtedly, both the older and current generations have a comprehensive understanding of Soviet history and culture. Therefore, Belarus and Azerbaijan governments and their state institutions such as the cabinet, legislature, and judiciary, would endorse aligning to BRICS, and contribute towards shaping a new post-Soviet space within the framework of an emerging new geopolitical reality.

As the majority of countries around the world face new, modern-day challenges, it has become necessary to create conditions to combat Western and European threats to political and economic stability. The need to amplify their collective voices or positions in strengthening partnerships is illustrated by the BRICS agenda which is very broad.

The agenda is in line with the general motto adopted by Russia’s BRICS chairmanship, relating to the widest range of issues, including politics, security, economy, finance and education, sports, and humanitarian ties.

CHINESE AND INDIAN FACTORS

While China and India have historically warm multiple ties with Russia, and even from Soviet times, both as BRICS members maintain closer economic partnerships with the Western world. China has comparatively more presence than India in Belarus and Azerbaijan, but prospects exist for extensive collaboration through BRICS.

Within its calculated strategy, China has a large footprint in the region, thanks to its Belt and Road Initiative. But that aside, Belarus and Azerbaijan can still secure economic partnerships and harness their modern technology and scientific innovations. Furthermore, public-private partnerships are crucial mechanisms for mobilizing the necessary resources and expertise for development.

Belarus sees BRICS as a basis for economic development.

In terms of influence and economic presence, China is indiscriminately deepening its trading and investment relations across the entire former Soviet region, and the Eurasian Economic Union, using its version of  – not confrontation – but it deemed acceptable as ‘mutual cooperation’ and polycentricity.

The 29th meeting between prime ministers of Russia and China (BRICS stalwart supporters of multi-polarity) reviewed economic cooperation and took cognizance of the huge untapped economic potentials generally in the Eurasian region, and specifically in the Russian Federation.

On August 21-22, Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Minsk and held talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko which resulted in agreements on investment and on a free trade area in the services sector. In addition, Belarus would host an industrial zone for China’s new quality productive forces concept based on technologies, innovations, and high-quality human potential.

This reflects the absolute possibility for Chinese technologies to enter the Belarusian market in large numbers as the core mid-term task for the two countries’ governments, until 2030. The new agreement will enable Belarus to increase exports of its services to China by at least 12%-15% within the next five years, while investment in Belarus will grow by at least 30%, according to reports.

India has good relations with Belarus and Azerbaijan. India’s interests included science and technology cooperation. It continues, at present time, seeking investment and resources through the Belarusian route for developing smart cities,  improving the manufacturing sector, and increasing skill development, especially in the pharmaceutical industry.

China and India are both active in Russia. Mutual trade between Russia and China is developing successfully, and the two governments are working well towards this, Russian President Vladimir Putin has noted in Kremlin reports. According to the government office, bilateral trade blossomed up to $240.1 billion in June 2024.

RUSSIA’s BRICS DIPLOMACY

For now, though, after years of declining Russia’s influence in many parts of the world, Moscow is steadily rising up. And at least, being a member of BRICS plays a much supportive role. Russia’s presidency of the association has witnessed a stern position against increasingly Western ‘domineering powers’ in recent years, and more recently pressurizing countries to back sanctions against Russia for its ‘special military operations’ in neighboring Ukraine.

Several BRICS documents and communiques contained anti-Western positions, mostly against the United States’ hegemony and neo-colonial character. As an association of states, BRICS is guided in its efforts by the principles of mutual respect and consensus, which rule out any attempts to dictate one’s will or impose any totalitarian administrative and oversight practices.

BRICS offers a good opportunity for discussing international matters.

Reiterating here that BRICS offers a good opportunity for discussing international matters, including the emergence of a new world order with better justice for all, and making efforts to strengthen cooperation between BRICS and the countries of the Global South and East while enhancing their international role.

BRICS under Russia’s 2024 chairmanship has advanced steps to introduce its currency and a financial settlement and payment system platforms primarily targeting the de-dollarization process. Coordinated by the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) which was established in 2015, these existing measures would, most probably, lead to a drastic reduction in the use and over-dependence of the dollar as a global currency. In the economic sphere, the BRICS countries have been discussing ways to promote sustainable development, to support the multilateral trading system, and to improve the global financial architecture.

Despite the above, Vice Chairman of the BRICS Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Sameep Shastri, and several state officials have indicated that BRICS member states are no longer attaching much importance to the dollar, one single currency, and are now successfully using national currencies.

This, in the first step, underscored the assertions that Western countries are the strongest economies in the world. Therefore in the ultimate analysis, the economic power is steadily, or rather rapidly, shifting from the West to the Global South.

CHALLENGES AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

According to authentic estimates, more than 30 countries have applied to join BRICS, which now includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE — and in a collective pursuit of an uncomfortable non-aligned policy. Experts have, however, pointed to strong relations beyond ‘non-alignment’ and beyond the confines of BRICS.

As many countries express the desire to join BRICS, to incorporate their unique non-aligned political and economic values, so also in parallel dimension are challenges and, worse the competitiveness by key Western players and multinational organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

BRICS is simply an anti-Western association and has it own principles. The question over Belarus and Azerbaijan here also brings into focus Eurasian regional security. We know that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2001, following the collapse of the Soviet era.

Now the SCO is the successor to the Shanghai Five including China and Russia. In June 2017, it expanded to eight states, with India and Pakistan. Iran joined the group in July 2023, and Belarus in July 2024. Several countries are engaged as observers or dialogue partners.

With China, Iran, India, and Russia in BRICS, they share the same security interests. Moreso, Azerbaijan, and Belarus becoming BRICS members will fortify the SCO operations in the region. Our analytical studies further show unfolding remarkable opportunities with BRICS member countries for the next new members such as Azerbaijan and Belarus.

Azerbaijan has an observer status according to Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aykhan Hajizada. Azerbaijan will probably become a full member of the SCO in a little while, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said during his meeting with President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev on July 3 in Astana.

The floodgates for new members have since been opened: The association now includes the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, two of the world’s biggest oil producers, and accounts for well over a quarter of the world’s GDP. Azerbaijan is also an oil producer in the region, and it could also serve as a smooth conduit for Russia to access global markets.

Judging from the above discussion, and subsequent findings from several reports also offer logical implications if Azerbaijan and Belarus are accepted into BRICS. It provides solid conditions for building up common capabilities and approaches in the fight for economic power. This may likely entice Armenia and Kazakhstan also to take similar steps to become members of BRICS, whose economic benefits are enormous.

For the same reasons, BRICS could be a counterweight against US economic hegemony in the global economic system. BRICS, which traces its name to a Goldman Sachs report in 2001, has long struggled to find an economic or geopolitical purpose, as its member countries have little in common besides being large and non-Western.

Gender Balance: The Universal Case of Gender Equity

By
Fatima Bashir
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Gender Equity

Envision a society in which the majority of people are deprived of the chance to realize their complete potential. Welcome to the world of gender inequality, where prejudices and outmoded norms keep us behind.

Before going further into details, let’s uncover the difference between gender equality and gender equity. Gender equality refers to equal opportunities and treatment for men and women, regardless of their gender. Gender equity focuses on addressing systemic inequalities. It involves providing what is fair. Gender equality would give the same size shoe to everyone regardless of their foot size, but gender equity would provide shoes that fit each person’s foot by recognizing their differences.

Men and women are physiologically, biologically, socially, and emotionally different. They have different roles and different needs. They should be dealt with in the same way. Gender equity provides that if a woman is a PHD scholar and a man is only a high school graduate, there shouldn’t be any biases based on gender while giving the job.

Gender equality would give the same size shoe to everyone regardless of their foot size, but gender equity would provide shoes that fit each person’s foot by recognizing their differences.

Women with higher qualifications should get the job, and vice versa. There shouldn’t be any prejudice against any gender. They should be paid according to their working hours. There are some jobs at which men are great, and there are some things at which women are great. They should be assigned work according to their capabilities.

Gender mainstreaming was a concept introduced at the 1985 Nairobi World Conference on Women. It was an approach to policymaking that took into account the concerns of both men and women. It involved identifying the different needs of men and women because they are different and making policies accordingly. It was a crucial step to accelerate gender equity in the world.

In ancient times, women who were considered to be outspoken or possessed knowledge of herbalism were targeted and accused of witchcraft. This is a stark example of how prejudiced our world is. Women were considered to be inferior. They were not given the right to vote until the dawn of the 20th century. Women were considered to be emotionally weak; that’s why it was said that they couldn’t hold important positions in the system. Women’s intelligence and capabilities were neglected based on gender.

Men also face ill-treatment. They are expected to be strong in every situation. They are expected to hide their emotions; otherwise, they will not look masculine. They are taught since their childhood, boys don’t cry. According to the data from the American Heart Association (AHA) and the CDC, men are more likely to experience a heart attack than women, especially at a younger age. On average, men experience their first heart attack at age 65, while women experience their first heart attack at age 72.

There shouldn’t be any prejudice against any gender. They should be paid according to their working hours.

In the United States, someone has a heart attack every 40 seconds, resulting in approximately 805,000 heart attacks per year. Men also become the target of sexual assault and gender-based violence, but their voices are often not heard because they are men. The philosophical movement known as stoicism has its roots in classical Greece and Rome. It placed a strong focus on reason, restraint, and detachment from outside events. These objects have certain drawbacks even if they are thought to be highly advantageous for daily living. Stoicism and mistreating men are frequently associated.

Many males have learned to bottle up their feelings due to the emphasis on emotional control and suppression. Causing tension and anxiety to rise. Because stoicism emphasizes independence, some men put independence over their own needs. Lastly, males find it challenging to express their emotions in healthy ways due to the stigma around doing so, which negatively impacts both their relationships and mental health.

WHAT GIVES BIRTH TO THESE PREJUDICES?

Every society has its norms. And according to the theory of moral relativism, there is no right or wrong. One thing could be morally right in America and wrong in Pakistan. Every society disseminates its values, beliefs, and traditions as morally right. These traditions are passed from one generation to another without question. Whoever questions them is seen as a deviant. However, the prejudices I have mentioned above are common almost everywhere.

Girls are brought up differently. They are encouraged to play with dolls and be delicate, or they are told that one day they’re going to marry someone and they should learn how to cook, clean, etc. On the other hand, boys are taught to be strong, independent, brave, nonchalant, and less delicate. They are taught from a very young age that they will be the providers of their families.

WHAT IF EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES ARE PROVIDED TO ALL?

By increasing productivity and diversifying the economy, a more inclusive and diverse workforce can contribute to a 50% rise in economic growth. Implementing flexible work arrangements under Norway’s Flexible Work Arrangement Policy (2018) resulted in improved work-life balance for both genders and a 1.2% increase in GDP (The Influence of Flexible Work Arrangements on work-life balance by the Journal of Applied Psychology 2019).

Another illustration is the 2019 federal paid family leave program introduced in the United States, which benefits both men and women and increases GDP by 0.7%. The impact of paid family leave on employment (National Bureau of Economic Research results).

GENDER EQUITY IN PAKISTAN: A DISTANT DREAM?

Pakistan, a country with a population of almost 251.27 million, is a developing country with the 5th largest population to accommodate. It has very few to almost zero opportunities. In a country where there are no opportunities for anyone (male, female, or transgender), the question of why Pakistan is not doing something about gender equity is ridiculous. But still, let’s talk about the 47.6% of employed people (as of 2023).

In Pakistan, gender inequity is very prominent, especially for women, because of the patriarchal mindset. The LFPR of women in Pakistan stands at 21%, well below the global percentage of 39% (National Report on the status of Women in Pakistan 2023). These statistics show that women are more subjected to gender inequity in Pakistan.

WHAT CAN WE DO TO PROMOTE GENDER BALANCE GLOBALLY?

Education and awareness about gender-based discrimination and inequity are very important. There is a dire need to educate parents to let their children do what they are capable of, regardless of their gender. Let them decide their careers. The government should make policies for men and women where both of them can work together and contribute according to their skills.

Gender-inclusive language should be used to break stereotypes. Representation in all fields should be given according to the male-to-female population ratio. Only through these measures can we create a world of gender parity.

Post-Hasina Bangladesh: Is Pakistan Up To The Task?

By
Ambassador Abdul Basit
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0
Muhammad Yunus

It took more than 560 innocent lives for the “Student Revolution” in Bangladesh to succeed. After weeks of bloody protests, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was left with no option but to flee the country and take refuge in India on August 5, 2024. Her authoritarian rule spanning over 15 years, bedizened in the garb of democracy, came to a sudden end.

India, which had the best partner in Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka, was literally shocked and found itself in a cleft stick. Whereas on the one hand, it was difficult to deny the former Prime Minister shelter in India as no other country was willing to accept her. On the other hand, New Delhi did not want the people of Bangladesh to be further alienated.

It nevertheless remains to be seen how developments finally pan out. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of Khaleda Zia (also a former Prime Minister) is already urging India to extradite Sheikh Hasina. Besides, some Bangladeshi experts are talking about taking the bilateral water disputes to relevant international forums for arbitration should India continue to be unfair and inflexible.

No sooner had the Sheikh Hasina government collapsed, the heavily biased Indian media started hatching frivolous conspiracy theories impugning Pakistan for orchestrating Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. What could be termed as a non sequitur, China and the United States were also accused of machinations against Sheikh Hasina in their respective strategic interests. This head-spinning spin only served to further infuriate Bangladeshis, for they saw in this a blatant attempt to belittle their enormous sacrifices against a “fascist regime”.

Some Bangladeshi experts are talking about taking the bilateral water disputes to relevant international forums for arbitration should India continue to be unfair and inflexible.

In Pakistan, however, the historic development was received with much exultation and the sense of poetic justice. That was understandable. It was Sheikh Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who conspired with India to create Bangladesh by splitting Pakistan in 1971. As the irony would have it, the “Father of the Nation” was killed on 15 August 1975. And in August 2024, the whole world witnessed how his statues across Bangladesh were vandalized. The interim government that sworn in with Dr Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate, as its head, on 8 August, lost no time in declaring to discontinue commemorating the annual National Mourning Day on 15 August.

Sheikh Hasina could have moved on but she preferred to remain stuck in a time warp when it came to Pakistan. Unlike other Bangladeshi politicians, she was mostly impervious to Pakistan’s genuine desire to start afresh in the spirit of the 9th April 1974 agreement signed between Bangladesh, India and Pakistan in New Delhi. The three countries had agreed to forgive and forget the mistakes of the past in order to promote reconciliation.

While from Pakistan’s viewpoint there was nothing left to be settled between the two countries, Sheikh Hasina kept on insisting that Pakistan must formally apologize for “all the crimes Pakistan committed against the people of Bangladesh”. Members of her party (Awami League) would also publicly demand to put on trial some 195 army officers who had allegedly perpetrated atrocities in the erstwhile East Pakistan. In short, Sheikh Hasina would not budge. No wonder, she never paid a bilateral visit to Pakistan during her long years in office.

On its part, Pakistan never gave up trying how to accommodate Bangladesh. In July 2002, President Pervez Musharraf paid a three-day official visit to Bangladesh. During the visit he publicly regretted the 71 war excesses. After laying wreath at the National Martyrs Memorial outside Dhaka, he wrote in the official visitors’ book as follows: “Your brother and sisters in Pakistan share the pains of the events of 1971. The excesses committed during the unfortunate period are regrettable. Let us bury the past in the spirit of magnanimity. Let not the light of the future be dimmed. Let us move forward together. Courage to compromise is greater than to confront.”

On its part, Pakistan never gave up trying how to accommodate Bangladesh.

This proffered the best way forward and the then Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Khaleda Zia, had apparently decided to let bygones be bygones. That helped. Years of bonhomie followed. However, when Sheikh Hasina came to power again in 2009, she could not help but revive the apology issue. Resultantly, the bilateral relationship yet again came under pressure. She visibly and unhelpfully became Modi’s junior partner. Even SAARC was not spared. Its 19th summit that was to be hosted by Pakistan in November 2014 had to be postponed as India refused to attend, making the 18 September 2014 Uri attack as an alibi. Bangladesh along with Afghanistan also regretted to attend.

When Sheikh Hasina came to power again in 2009, she could not help but revive the apology issue.

I had the opportunity to have a brief conversation with Sheikh Hasina at the residence of the Bangladeshi High Commissioner in New Delhi during her official visit to India in April 2017. Besides conveying greetings to her from the Pakistani leadership, I told her that the people of Pakistan were also keenly looking forward to hosting her. She did not respond except to express the hope that I was enjoying my stay in India. In fact, she never wanted to pay a bilateral visit to Pakistan. She clearly made the bilateral relations hostage to the apology issue. Perhaps, the word “regret” and that, too, during Khaleda Zia’s premiership, was difficult for her to digest.

Be that as it may, Sheikh Hasina is no longer at the helm. Though in politics nothing is impossible, it may be a safe wager to say that it seems highly unlikely that she would ever return to power again. There is now an opportunity for Pakistan to reach out to Bangladesh, putting bilateral ties on a positive irreversible trajectory.

The most important thing Pakistan needs to understand is that Bangladesh-India relations are mutually critical. Islamabad must not get concerned if their relations come back on track. Diplomacy mostly works incrementally; the slow process needs patience and perseverance. To expect quick results would be a wishful thinking. Islamabad must not get carried away either by taking premature steps. It should also avoid seeing as pandering to Bangladesh and joining hands against India. There is still no clarity how long the present interim government will be in power. For one, I do not see elections taking place in Bangladesh this year.

The most important thing Pakistan needs to understand is that Bangladesh-India relations are mutually critical.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s felicitations to Chief Advisor Yunus were in order. His subsequent letter to the latter assuring him of every possible assistance to the people of Bangladesh to cope with the destruction caused by heavy floods was also the right thing to do. As Prime Minister Sharif underlined, Pakistan would always be standing with the people of Bangladesh. It is encouraging that the Bangladesh cricket team did not cancel its trip and is presently in Pakistan for a two-test matches series. The warm welcome the Bangladeshi team received from all and sundry in Pakistan will go a long way towards promoting mutual goodwill.

Some analysts in Pakistan are suggesting that Islamabad must send a special emissary to Bangladesh. To them, the time is of the essence. Pakistan must not let this opportunity go. I have been propounding for the appointment of a special envoy for Bangladesh for years now. But in my view, this not the appropriate time to do so. Islamabad must keep a low profile and let the Pakistan High Commissioner in Dhaka handle the matters at this stage.

Rather than focusing on politics, it may be worthwhile for Islamabad to consider sending an economic and trade delegation to Dhaka. That will not only be good optics but also convey our sincere intentions to work in our mutual benefit. Pakistan can also consider engaging in bilateral sports activities beyond cricket.

Yunus will likely travel to New York this September for the UNGA session. Islamabad must seek a bilateral meeting. The meeting, should it come through, would require extremely careful preparations both in terms of optics and substance. Needless to say that excessive and empty rhetoric is a burden diplomacy barely brooks for long.

Hopefully, Islamabad is up to the task in the case of Bangladesh unlike Afghanistan post-August 15, 2021.

China’s Global Security Initiative For A Peaceful World

By
Corinna Perini
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Global Security Initiative

President Xi Jinping first suggested the term of Global Security Initiative (GSI) on April 21, 2022 at the Boao Forum for Asia. It followed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Global Development Initiative (GDI). Following the publication of a thorough document on the GSI, one can see the changing patterns in Chinese foreign policy towards the global systems. This paper, however, seeks to examine how GSI might be a helpful contribution to create a peaceful and safe global order in the area and beyond.

The first principle of the GSI emphasizes on the dedication to shared, comprehensive, and sustainable security as a whole approach that has to keep security in both conventional and non-traditional spheres. By improving world security governance through the means of collective security initiatives, the core cause of wars is supposed to be eliminated.

Respecting the sovereignty and geographical integrity of every state is the second principle. In this regard, every state across the world has equal rights to carry out their security policies in a manner that aids in the decrease of conflicts and is necessary to sustain world security in modern international relations. China is thus the first in honoring the territorial sovereignty of smaller and weaker nations, which the strong governments have historically transgressed.

By improving world security governance through the means of collective security initiatives, the core cause of wars is supposed to be eliminated.

The third principle is the will to follow the UN Charter’s ideas. For this reason, China advocates multilateralism while opposing the Cold War mindset of bloc antagonism and unilateralism. The vision of global security governance proposed by President Xi depends on the correct application of the UN Charter’s concept of preservation of peace and stability on the worldwide level.

According to the fourth principle indicated in the concept paper, China emphasized on maintaining individual security, shared security, and indivisible security between conventional and non-traditional issues, all of which combined together. The concept paper emphasizes the necessity of a balanced security architecture accomplished via a multilateral platform.

Conflict resolution via peaceful communication and consultation is the fifth pillar of the new security paradigm. By means of peaceful dialogue and enhancement of bilateral and multilateral connections, GSI provides a chance for governments to disperse tension and eradicate the fundamental cause of the conflict escalation. Concluded by China in recent past, the Saudi-Iran reconciliation is an example of how in the framework of GSI it seeks to help to the regional security.

China has sped up information technology collaboration in order to improve cyberspace governance and worldwide connectivity.

Maintaining security in both conventional (military security) and non-traditional spheres (energy security, food security, environmental security, and cybersecurity) is the last guiding concept. Security issues alter quickly in the current age of development. Apart from state and personal security, energy security is vital for the survival and growth of a state’s economy and environmental security is required for the sustainability of the worldwide ecosystem. China has sped up information technology collaboration in order to improve cyberspace governance and worldwide connectivity. China has so started the “Global Data Security Initiative” with this aim as well.

The Chinese GSI signifies a change in the global security scene. Critics of GSI contend that China is using it to offset the global influence of the United States. Another argument is that the Chinese GSI fuels division among ASEAN members. Many Asian, African, and Latin American nations depending on US help are more open to the GSI paradigm. GSI is thus seen as a possible hazard to the current unipolar global order. Thus, the western academics contend that the US should change its foreign policy to concentrate more on the models of conflict resolution and peace building.

The continuous wars and conflicts in the many parts of the world need a thorough response alternative to the GSI instead of a sporadic and reactive one. GSI presents Xi’s diplomatic vision to interact with the rest of the world, lower tensions between two strong governments, China and the US, and foster peace from generation to generation all around.

ChatGPT Is Threatening Academic Integrity In Pakistan

By
Dr. Attiq Ur Rehman
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ChatGPT

The multifaceted functions of ChatGPT in the contemporary international system have influenced traditional social infrastructures of states where the dramatic rise of smartphone culture has become a primary support for promoting artificial intelligence (AI) tools. It altered the conventional roles of individuals and organizations in societies while revolutionizing their digital communication capabilities with the support of AI-centric advanced technologies.

The basic function of ChatGPT is to disseminate information with the support of online data while enabling its users to develop instant access to a variety of content. Its diverse operations offer several benefits, such as finding quick answers and varying explanations of issues. The learning provided by this AI-supported application makes it convenient for users to remain updated and well-informed about the multilevel developments of the international system. Its increasing worldwide appreciation provided several digital opportunities to the states, which could not be divorced from certain challenges.

This AI-supported application acts as an efficient discussion partner and a brainstorming companion for its users.

Besides admiring its positive features, the discussion on the growing interconnections between traditional states’ societal structures can only be completed with an understanding of the role of ChatGPT in education.

The use of ChatGPT in education has become an opportunity for different academic communities because this AI-supported application acts as an efficient discussion partner and a brainstorming companion for its users. It provides its users with multiple services, presenting different ideas, giving several suggestions, and helping them understand the international system’s emerging perspectives and its various evolutionary phases.

The increasing reliance of academic communities on the multidimensional services of ChatGPT has affected the traditional education system of various states.

The growing popularity of these AI-centric digital platforms in the higher studies of Pakistan has dramatically increased its users across the country due to multiple benefits such as enhancing diverse and interactive learning, availing free services of personalized assistance, getting resource efficiency, and accessing information in the required languages and based on desired formats. Its valuable addition to Pakistan’s education system has raised the satisfaction levels of university students, and its interdisciplinary nature has made it an instant source of supplementary learning in higher education.

The challenge of academic integrity has engulfed the entire mechanism of higher education in the country

This AI application’s ability to provide the required information in multiple languages allowed students to use it comfortably, even in their native languages. In this way, the growing societal admiration of AI-centric studying tools in Pakistan has become a common practice in the country’s higher education institutions. It has started reflecting a considerable positive impact on the traditional education structure of remote or underserved areas where access to advanced education resources is a significant challenge under numerous logistical constraints and financial pressures.

However, the challenge of academic integrity has engulfed the entire mechanism of higher education in the country, where students commonly prefer to use the interdisciplinary functions of ChatGPT. It helps a student produce various content related to their major assignments and research projects without estimating its worse impacts on the culture of research and development. Consequently, the country’s mainstream education institutions have started witnessing a high number of plagiarism cases. This factor has compromised the originality of existing research work and undermined the values of critical thinking and innovative ideas in higher studies. Several reports are internationally published about the rising cases of AI-generated plagiarism in academic research due to the lack of sufficient digital ethics in societies where Pakistan’s low literacy rate is a significant case.

The question of academic integrity in Pakistan has already become a serious national concern due to a persistent quantitative rise in research publications and academic books in the country. The race to secure high ratings in the publication has been fostered by the arrival of AI tools in academia, and their widespread usage has augmented this crisis. It facilitated higher study students of diverse disciplines to copy the AI-generated research arguments and descriptions of various phenomena in their major research projects under different degree programs.

Several reports are internationally published about the rising cases of AI-generated plagiarism

It is pertinent to mention here the critical role of AI-generated software applications in accessing online information without considering their contexts and validities. The higher study students generally rely on the arguments and analysis generated by the AI tools without verifying their resource authenticities and validity. This scenario considerably damages the fundamental values of academic integrity, parallel to underestimating the scope of innovative research in society. Thus, the diminishing academic contribution of the country in innovative research and critical thinking has marginalized the analytical and professional skills in higher studies.

The lack of adequate awareness of the civilized patterns of the emerging digital world is the primary factor raising the cases of academic dishonesty and the high rate of plagiarism in education. It has raised the citations of fabricated information and false facts in academic research, parallel to degrading the ethical standards and moral commitments of academic communities in the country. In other words, there is no harm in saying that the increasing misuse of AI research tools such as ChatGPT has targeted the fundamental concept of research worldwide, especially in the states with abstruse digital practices in society.

It helps a student produce various content related to their major assignments and research projects without estimating its worse impacts on the culture of research and development.

Pakistan could be treated as one of the leading exceptional cases due to a swift transformation of its society in the digital domain without substantial knowledge of the digital world and an inadequately developed digital structure of society. In this scenario, the widespread promotion of ChatGPT in Pakistan’s society raised the misuse of this AI tool due to the growing overreliance of education communities on it. This overreliance has eventually compromised the core values of academic integrity in Pakistan.

Therefore, the government is required to create a careful examination of countrywide digital governance with a clear national vision based on a rational approach. Adopting a conceptually robust and practically applicable legislative framework could help improve Pakistan’s existing IT culture. The government’s formal decision-makers need to align the national IT vision with the emerging realities of AI technologies while accepting them as an essential part of the contemporary international system.

The quest for upholding and aligning the country’s IT culture with the newly emerging world of AI-supported digital realities also requires the government to focus on various awareness campaigns. Launching such a campaign related to the spread of AI-centric ethical guidelines has become a pressing need of the nation and its leading education institutions. Additionally, a combination of strict academic policies and the formulation of new assessment mechanisms in academics could help government authorities achieve their desired objectives. The development of new assessment mechanisms in higher studies could not be ensured with the support of existing plagiarism detection digital applications. It has made supporting the idea of academic integrity a difficult task for the government. Launching an updated and improved version of digital governance could let the Pakistan positively integrate AI-centric digital tools with the ongoing education system to support and preserve the country’s core values of academic integrity.

India’s Dark Agenda: Global Silence, Human Rights Ignored

By
Dr. Ghulam Mujaddid
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Human Rights

Although India is often praised as a model democracy, under its surface lies a sinister plan meant to attack its political rivals outside. Particularly in recent times, the murder of a Sikh leader in Canada raises issues not only concerning human issues but also challenges the silence of the world community.

Disappointingly, international institutions such as the United Nations and the United States— which asserts itself to defend human rights — have been silent, which adds to the complexity of the problem. This silence suggests that maybe these international powers have interests that keep them from criticizing India.

The murder of a Sikh leader in Canada raises not only concerning human rights issues but also challenges the silence of the world community.

Given all this, other nations including Pakistan should reflect on their policies. To end breaches of human rights in the region, India has to strongly oppose its approach. The whole community should intervene right away to prevent India from continuing its criminal activities.

The United Nations should likewise prioritize this matter and launch an objective inquiry to enable the truth to surface. One may conclude that it is unavoidable for the world community to come together against India’s agenda. Should this issue be overlooked now, the effects might be more severe down the road.

The silence of international organizations can cause other nations in the region to violate human rights. Consequently, every country should give this matter some thought and resolve these challenges under a shared approach. India’s disregard of the deaths of its rivals suggests that the whole community has moral obligations. People are offering lines of questions.

Many big nations are hesitant to address the matter honestly due to commercial and diplomatic relations to India. Strong reaction to India’s actions by international institutions such as the United States and the United Nations should have been taken, but their silence now begs serious issues about the global conscience.

The silence of the United States and the United Nations adds to the complexity of the problem.

Think about geographic goals first of human rights. These nations concentrate on making sure their connections with India are not affected rather than voicing criticism on New Delhi’s policies.

America’s silence might also result from its own geopolitical goals. India is a major friend, and the US regards it as a major actor in the region to counter China’s influence. As such, the US is more interested in supporting India than in criticizing its internal matters. This kind of thinking has enabled India even more to continue resisting its foes abroad as it believes that world powers will not interfere.

Likewise, the purpose of the United Nations has sometimes been dubious. The United Nations vows to speak out against breaches of human rights, even if its lack of action and apathy has damaged its reputation all around. The non-action of the United Nations against India indicates the lack of interest of the world community and its incompetence to carry out a functional purpose.

About India’s actions, Pakistan and other countries should unite to develop a comprehensive strategy to pinpoint a feasible answer to this problem. Pakistan has to advocate on this issue abroad and put pressure on international organizations to follow strict policies against India. The international community should also examine India’s actions against its enemy and assign culpability before justice.

It is long past that the whole society comes together against India’s posture in order to maintain international stability and peace.

Not only the United States and the United Nations, but also the entire community should reconsider its beliefs and responsibilities and act with efficiency to protect human rights. Apart from providing the victims with justice, practical actions against India will contribute to promoting respect for human rights elsewhere. It is long past that the whole world comes together against India’s posture to maintain international stability and peace.

ASEAN’s Evolution In The Global Context

By
Chiara Cacco
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ASEAN

Although some of the most powerful countries in the world are now involved in conflict, recession, and inflation, the ASEAN mostly emphasizes the need of peace and economic stability. Based in Southeast Asia, ASEAN is a regional body of 10 members: Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Laos, Indonesia, Cambodia, Burma, and Brunei Darussalam.

Laos takes over as ASEAN chairperson in 2024. The subject this year is “ASEAN: Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience”. Emphasizing the ASEAN 2024 topic by means of chances and addressing rising issues centers the ASEAN community.

Commonly referred to as Laos, the ASEAN 2024 host nation is officially named as Lao People’s Democratic Republic (LPDR). Being in Southeast Asia, Laos is primarily connected with being the “Land of a Million Elephants,” as it will provide wealth to Laotians.

Established in Bangkok, Thailand, with five founding fathers from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, ASEAN was born out of the “Bangkok Declaration”. Brunei Darussalam joined the grouping in 1984; Vietnam followed in 1995; Lao PDR and Myanmar in 1997; and Cambodia in 1999.

Right now, around 60% of ASEAN’s whole population falls under the age of 35. It makes the area a dynamic market for sophisticated sciences — robotics, social media, e-commerce platforms, artificial intelligence, and everything around. Half of such a population by 2030 will be middle class members.

GREETINGS ON YOUR 57TH BIRTHDAY, ASEAN!

After 1967, the ASEAN community commemorates its establishment every eighth of August. This celebration reminds us of the goals of the ASEAN founding fathers and how they developed into what ASEAN is all about in the modern society.

Emphasizing connectedness and resilience among members in sectors like sustainable development, digital transformation, and resilient economies, the 57th ASEAN Day highlighted. Through government-to-government and people-to-people interactions, ASEAN promoted economic development, social change, and cultural appreciation by means of shared and cooperative efforts to fit a changing global scene.

ASEAN is destined to be a powerful Asian regional grouping. Given the development of ASEAN, one can see that its exceptional qualities — strategic geographic position, varied cultures, customs, traditions, and political systems and philosophies — which also challenge its fundamental foundation. Future challenges might arise from a territory with such varied civilizations.

CODE OF CONDUCT FOR SOUTH CHINA SEA

Among uncertainty and national interests, ASEAN aims to have the South China Sea code of conduct completed by 2026. ASEAN Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn visited Washington in June 2024 to advocate the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between ASEAN and the United States; he noted the situation that is becoming worse and requested the parties to use moderation.

Although applicants have been fervently advocating a code of behavior for many years, the gravity may appear different from that of the non-claimants as they may not want to endanger their particular interactions with China. Although the code of behavior was constantly in development, China has never adopted such a stance as it never achieved its final form of legal bindingness.
Real manifestations of the lack of the ASEAN posture in the South China Sea Code of Conduct include different points of view, complicated issues, and split desires. Regarding the code of behavior, ASEAN is definitely not unified. Vietnam and the Philippines have open lines of contact with China separately and concurrently. For example, the Philippines has gone through many unpleasant events that have led to diplomatic objections against China.

THE MYANMAR CONUNDRUM   

The member nations of ASEAN have been indecisive for more than three years in trying for a regional settlement on the present situation of Myanmar. Both Laos and Cambodia are authoritarian in character, hence, they assist the dictatorship in certain respects. Under a junta government that destroyed democracy in 2021, other ASEAN nations like Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia maintained some degree of contact with the opposition in Myanmar. At this moment in time, most ASEAN nations appear to be primarily focused on eliminating violence.

Though ASEAN is a regional entity with great goals, fundamental problems still exist. For instance, the internal conflicts of the ASEAN members mirror the issues in the South China Sea conflict and the junta government of Myanmar.

FUTURE ASEAN TRAJECTORY: WHAT IS IT?

Indeed, there are many clear economic signals, socio-cultural contributions, and images reflecting Asia; yet, in politics, there are certain gaps, particularly those that really affect the international order.

One may find both good and bad aspects in resilience and connectedness. Positive because ASEAN multilateral diplomacy is headed toward regional cooperation. The bad side of it is that some of the most crucial fundamental elements remain unsolved. Soft and cultural tolerance does not convert into a toolkit of fundamental global concerns of relevance and significance. ASEAN should rethink its multilateral commitment; unlike certain groupings or even treaties, an issue of one affect all. Independent bilateral diplomacy should not waver under a member of another nation in regional diplomacy. Pushing for the regional ambitions reflecting its pillars and charter calls for great cooperation, coordination, and dedication.

Third Plenum: Priorities To Remodel China’s Economic Future

By
Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi
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Chinese Economy

China is aware that its 2035 goal to build a more equitable, innovative, and greener economy and the 2049 goal of modernization are within reach. However, rational but difficult choices must be made and challenges faced head-on now to realize them. The third plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CPC) 20th Central Committee in July 2024 came at a critical juncture for China’s economic challenges and, therefore, focused on deepening economic reforms to address a range of pressing issues facing Chinese economy and society.

The third plenum, therefore, enacted much-awaited structural reforms. China set ambitious long-term policy goals and unveiled a range of economic reforms and policies to address long-standing issues hindering growth and recovery. While reforms are modest, yet comprehensively cover all aspects of economy and governance. These reforms will have a substantial impact on the country’s development trajectory and thus their impact should be well understood.

The CCP plenums are quasi-annual meetings held by the Central Committee. After the National Congress, which is held every five years and elects the Central Committee, they are the most important and high-level political gatherings in China. Historically, these plenums have been the platform from which the government launches seminal policies and decisions, such as the “reform and opening up policy” in 1978 and the easing of the One-Child policy in 2013.

Although past plenums have seen major reforms and policy decisions, the July 2024 plenum did not announce any drastic pivots and instead put in more granular reforms that align with the country’s current development trajectory. The Central Committee approved decision on Further Comprehensive Deepening of Reforms and Advancing Chinese-style Modernization. It named “high-quality development” as China’s “top priority” and laid out structural reforms to be completed by 2029, the 80th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

Historically, these plenums have been the platform from which the government launches seminal policies and decisions

This document outlined the planned economic reforms for the coming years and focused in part on policies to promote the “new-type industrialization” policy. This initiative seeks to move China’s industries up the value chain and boost their global competitiveness by focusing on digitization, advanced manufacturing, secure supply chains, and developing core and emerging technologies. “High-quality development is the primary task of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way,” the statement said.

Meanwhile, external factors are anticipated to encourage reinforcement of China’s internal competencies, especially in the technological sector, aiming to enhance the robustness and self-reliance of vital industrial and supply networks. In recent years, the US and the EU, as well as other allies, have increased pressure on China by introducing a variety of policies aimed at countering China’s growing influence in key supply chains. These include the US sanctions on key technology exports to China and recent tariff hikes, as well as the EU’s growing scrutiny of various Chinese imports.

Meanwhile, external factors are anticipated to encourage reinforcement of China’s internal competencies, especially in the technological sector

To mitigate this, the Central Committee may prioritize enhancing domestic high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing, consolidating advantageous industries, and fostering strategic emerging industries, such as semiconductors, alongside encouraging collaborative innovation across the industrial chain. Decisions have also been taken to help with business matchmaking, location analysis, market entry strategy, market research, and supply chain re-engineering.

While technology innovation initiative was first introduced in 2002 during the 16th National Congress, it has become an increasingly important aspect of China’s industrial policy in recent years. In September 2023, President Xi Jinping stressed the “vital role of high-quality development in advancing new-type industrialization”, emphasizing the need to adapt and lead the ongoing scientific and technological revolution.

China views technology innovation as a new growth engine that could help the economy transition from the old model fueled by infrastructure investment and debt expansion. The third plenum announced policies related to promoting high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing processes, consolidating existing industrial strengths and expanding strategic emerging industries, and proactively developing industries of the future to stay ahead in global technological and industrial revolutions.

In September 2023, President Xi Jinping stressed the “vital role of high-quality development in advancing new-type industrialization”

Meanwhile, China has been proactively building economic relationships with countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe to strengthen its supply chain resilience. This strategy is expected to remain steadfast in the short term.

Chinese private sector has experienced uneven recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic, with private companies falling behind their public counterparts across measures such as value output and investment. The third plenum announced new policies to support the growth and recovery of the private sector, including ensuring equal treatments for state-owned and private enterprises through institutional and legal frameworks, protecting the property rights and interests of private entrepreneurs, and supporting the growth of small, medium, and micro-enterprises, as well as individual businesses.

Xi’s government has also strengthened its national security apparatus in the past decade.  The plenum pledged to ensure “security,” which means national security concerns could continue to drive policymaking. They also vowed to give “better play to the role of the market”, while noting that market forces need to be better managed, and retained a previous promise to “unswervingly” develop the state sector.

China also pledged to “improve people’s livelihoods” at the plenum, which is essentially a continuation of Xi’s “common prosperity” agenda. While previous leaders in post-Mao China were content to let some get rich first, Xi believes the time has come to share the fruits of development more widely among its population. The plenum acknowledged the need to improve “basic and bottom-up livelihood, solve the most direct and realistic interests of the people and continuously meet the people’s yearning for a better life”.  This is the most promising parts of the reform agenda, since channeling a greater share of income to households would help to advance a much-needed rebalancing toward consumption.

It was also decided to improve job markets, social security, education system and the medical system. Likewise, the need to address risks in the property market and other threats to the economy have been heighted with determination to put requisite strategies in place to rectify the problems.

Relieving the financial squeeze on local governments that have built up huge amounts of debt after a crackdown on heavy borrowing by property developers pushed the real estate industry into crisis, cutting off a vital source of tax revenues from sales of land-use rights. The urgent need to reform the tax system and better integrate cities and the countryside has also been emphasized.

The leadership also vowed to revamp the fiscal, taxation and financial systems, which signal their concerns about how to address the debt crises faced by Chinese local governments. Debt has piled up at municipal governments, after three years of pandemic controls drained their coffers and the property slump led to a sharp decline in land sales, which they rely on for income. That poses risks to the country’s banking system and economic growth.

Besides the long-term structural reform priorities, policymakers also promised to achieve short-term economic goals, including a 5% GDP growth target for 2024. That came days after China released disappointing economic data for the second quarter of this year. GDP grew 4.7% year-on-year in the April-to-June period, marking the weakest growth since the first quarter of last year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The figure slowed from 5.3% in the previous three months and missed the 5.1% increase forecast.

It has committed to peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

To achieve the annual goals, “China will proactively expand domestic demand” and develop “new-quality productivity forces,” That could mean channeling resources to favored sectors, such as high-tech manufacturing, while gradually curbing the role of sunset industries like property development, according to Evans-Pritchard from Capital Economics. Analysts say that the coming months could offer more details on how Xi plans to revive the economy.

Sustainable development remains a cornerstone of China’s policy framework. It has committed to peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. China has now introduced measures to accelerate this green transition, promoting renewable energy, enhancing energy efficiency, and supporting the development of a circular economy. These efforts underscore China’s dedication to combating climate change and fostering a harmonious coexistence between humanity and nature.

The decisions taken at the third plenum will propel China in a new era of reforms and prepare it to face the challenges emerging around it that may restrain its development. China is now determined to ensure it realizes its second millennial goal of rejuvenation of the motherland by the middle of the century. It plans to do this by building a high-standard socialist market economy, improving macroeconomic governance and the national strategic planning system as well as policy coordination mechanisms.

Other initiatives include: deepening reform of the fiscal and tax systems along with overall financial system; improving mechanisms for implementing the coordinated regional development strategy; promoting integrated urban-rural development; pursuing high-standard opening up; advancing whole-process people’s democracy; promoting socialist rule of law with Chinese characteristics; deepening reform in the cultural sector; ensuring and improving the people’s wellbeing; deepening reform in ecological conservation; modernizing China’s national security system and capacity; expediting national defense and military reforms; and improving the party’s leadership.

So far China has demonstrated its determination to fully implement its short and long-term goals. Now it is in the final decades of achieving its cherished goal of national rejuvenation of the motherland. Whether it is able to achieve it will depend on the decisions China is taking today and will continue to need strong and sagacious leadership.

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