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Book Review – Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy

By
theadmin
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0

Leadership (2022) is a detailed analysis of six monumental twentieth-century leaders. By examining both the circumstances that formed these leaders and the strategies they used to shepherd their respective nations through periods of turmoil, it presents invaluable lessons for anyone working to shape the world’s future.

The book begins with the discription that in most societies and most times, leaders act like managers: they maintain the status quo. During periods of crisis, however, leaders must act, not just manage. In this regard, there’s a lesson to be learned from great political leaders – leaders who have risen up to the occasion, transformed the state of affairs, and guided their nations toward better futures.

The book deals in its introduction scrutinizes upon and learning from the strategies of six very different leaders. Konrad Adenauer used the strategy of humility to restore order in postwar Germany. Charles de Gaulle became the leader of the Free French using the strategy of will. Richard Nixon developed his policy around the goal of equilibrium.
Anwar Sadat carefully transcended Egypt’s reigning paradigm to achieve peace. Lee Kuan Yew’s strategy of excellence, Singapore became a thriving new nation. Margaret Thatcher helped heal a faltering Britain with her strategy of conviction.

There is no one-size-fits-all strategy for leadership, just as no two leaders are alike. Unique historical circumstances produce leaders who, if the moment is right, can seize a tactic that works for their time and location – transcending old paradigms and ushering in new ones – if the appropriate conditions exist. Their separate societies were reshaped by Konrad Adenauer, Charles de Gaulle, Richard Nixon, Anwar Sadat, Lee Kuan Yew, and Margaret Thatcher utilising quite different approaches, ranging from humility to equilibrium, excellence to conviction. In a world that seems to want to forget, it is crucial that we keep these leaders and their accomplishments in memory.

Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East Politics

By
Sidrah Zaman
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2

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western nations that support Kyiv have a tendency to discuss the conflict in black-and-white terms with little consideration for nations that stand between the West and Moscow. Support for Ukraine is framed by US leadership as a question of safeguarding a rules-based world order that is being challenged by rogue authoritarians.

However, this Manichean story is often disregarded in Arab nations. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations mostly see the situation in Ukraine as a complex European dispute that does not call for Arab nations to oppose Vladimir Putin’s administration.

Arab politicians do not want to weaken ties with Moscow because of this crisis, despite the fact that no Arab country has openly backed Russia’s invasion, occupation, and annexation of Ukrainian territory.

Arab politicians do not think their nations should weaken ties with Moscow because of this crisis, despite the fact that no Arab country has openly backed Russia’s invasion, occupation, and annexation of Ukrainian territory. As a result, although the GCC countries have mainly backed UNGA resolutions denouncing Russia’s actions in Ukraine, none of them have joined Western powers in putting sanctions or other restrictive measures against Moscow in place.

Some observers predict that the Saudis would resist Western pressure to side with Moscow as the conflict in Ukraine approaches another year. The kingdom is using this conflict to convey a message to the US that Saudi Arabia is not Washington’s vassal state and that preserving relative neutrality promotes Saudi interests.

Saudis have made clear that their objectives have been centered on preserving solid ties with their primary security partner, the US; their top economic partner, China; and their important partner in OPEC+, Russia.

According to Gerald Feierstein, a former US ambassador to Yemen, the Saudis have emphasized in recent years that they want to avoid being involved in what is known as “great power rivalry” in the US. The Saudis have made it plain that their objectives have been centered on preserving solid ties with their primary security partner, the US; their top economic partner, China; and their important partner in OPEC+, Russia.

Since Russia sent soldiers into neighboring Ukraine, Riyadh has continued to cooperate with Russia. In fact, just as the West was sanctioning these Russian energy titans at the outset of the conflict, Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holding Co bought at least $500 million in Gazprom, Rosneft, and Lukoil. More recently, on October 5, the OPEC+ cartel headed by Saudi Arabia and Russia revealed its intentions to lower oil output.

Saudi Arabia professed that its financial and commercial interests, as well as market stability, were the only factors considered in making a choice to not openly condemn the Russian actions in Ukrain.

Saudi Arabia claims that its financial and commercial interests, as well as market stability, were the only factors considered in making a choice. Meanwhile, officials in Washington were enraged by the revelation because they thought the OPEC+ decision would help Russia fend off US and European sanctions and thwart Western attempts to isolate Putin’s regime. There was no question that Riyadh needed friendly connections with Moscow to coordinate oil output and continue a fruitful engagement with Russia over its actions against Iran.

Saudi authorities were keen to maintain the price of oil, mostly to pay a number of domestic development projects that unified OPEC+ agreements could fund only and maintain communication channels for discussing other concerns. Even if it is based on expediency and opportunism, Saudi Arabia’s continued increasing ties with Russia will increase tensions between Riyadh and Washington. Saudi Arabia’s reputation and image in Washington have suffered, especially in the wake of the most recent event at OPEC+, as seen by the heated language from US politicians about downgrading Washington’s security partnership with Riyadh and backing for the so-called “NOPEC” legislation.

Saudi Arabia’s continued increasing ties with Russia will increase tensions between Riyadh and Washington. Saudi Arabia’s reputation and image in Washington have suffered.

It will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to retain ties with both the US and Russia as the East-West split and great power rivalry intensify. However, Riyadh has made it clear that it will continue to work toward this challenging objective, which calls for carefully managing the globe’s evolving geopolitical environment. Saudi Arabia has continued to cooperate with Russia in energy, investment, and other sectors, but as it seeks to establish itself as a helpful mediator, Saudi Arabia has exhibited varying degrees of support for Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey were crucial in helping to facilitate a prisoner exchange between Kyiv and Moscow in September, which led to the release of several Western people (including two US citizens) who had been arrested while fighting for Ukraine. This action aided Saudi Arabia in convincing the US and Europe that its position in the fight served Western interests rather than being detrimental to them.

Saudi humanitarian help is no more than a show of goodwill to alleviate the US concerns at its rage at the OPEC+ decision with Russia. Riyadh has said that it always supported peaceful conflict resolution but it refrained from overtly condemning the invasion of Ukraine.

In an attempt to strengthen Western perceptions of Riyadh’s neutrality in the crisis, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) promised to provide $400 million in non-lethal help to the war-torn nation. It is difficult to consider the Saudi humanitarian help as anything more than a show of goodwill when US rage at the OPEC+ decision started to surface. Although Riyadh has said that it always supported peaceful conflict resolution, it refrained from overtly condemning the invasion of Ukraine. Now, Ukraine does welcome the assistance announcement, but it is difficult to separate it from the animosity around the oil cut decision.

There are currently no indications that the fighting in Ukraine will end soon. The worldwide repercussions are alarming, particularly considering the threats to food security and the potential use of nuclear weapons in the battle.

Media’s Policy in the Wake of Resurgence in Terrorism

By
Asad Malik
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1

A picture is worth a thousand words, it is said. Today, mass media, particularly visual media, plays a critical role in instilling a sense of awareness in society. Visual media refers to various communication channels or methods by which knowledge and information are conveyed to viewers or readers via knowledge, television, cinema, posters, and so on. Whatever is delivered through visual media has an immediate and long-lasting impact on the minds of the viewers.

Even within the relatively short lifespan of the modern internet, social media platforms have evolved drastically. Common social media platforms have gone from rudimentary chat rooms, blogs, and email services, to sites like Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube in a matter of decades. Though focused on the internet and social media, the link between social media platforms and narrative is fundamental because, as described previously where people are congregating there are always narrative processes occurring.

Negative news on social media is always disseminated promptly and widely which leads to negative economic and social outcomes that render a practical research agenda necessary to understand user sharing decisions. Moreover, news posted on social media usually includes images, but little is known about the role of such images in shaping user decisions to share negative news.

The young mind accepts the reel as real and is thus more easily molded and motivated by visual media. Today’s fashion, hairdressing, sexual liberties, dating, and awakening to children’s rights, as well as women’s rights, are all a result of the role that visual media has played in society. There is nothing wrong if visual media has such an emphatic effect on viewers, but channel owners must understand that if they show something of a violent nature, it can undermine the positivity of the role to be played by the media.

It is argued that the role of the media is to bring reality to the public, but how does showing mutilated burnt churned bodies help society or our nation? Some of channels are playing an important role in awakening the common man against corruption, the rotten outdated rites that continue to pollute society, superstitions, the killing of the female unborn child, and other societal evils. These are all very positive developments that have resulted in the authorities being on high alert and the government taking steps in the right direction.

ISKP, TTP, and BLF-BLA have managed to stay afloat by keeping its brand of militancy alive is through robust social media propaganda and its worldwide network of branches.

Likewise, ISKP, TTP, and BLF-BLA have managed to stay afloat by keeping its brand of militancy alive is through robust social media propaganda and its worldwide network of branches. No terror group has honed the art of using social media to stay relevant and promote its jihadist agenda as well as ISKP. It prioritized propaganda by replacing the centrality of territory with terrorist attacks and social media propaganda. ISKP accords propagandists the same weight it gives to its fighters. Al-Azaim Foundation for Media Productions and Communications, ISKP’s main propaganda arm, is transnational. ISKP attaches great significance to the power of propaganda on social media.

ISKP prioritized propaganda by replacing the centrality of territory with terrorist attacks and social media propaganda. ISKP accords propagandists the same weight it gives to its fighters. Al-Azaim Foundation for Media Productions and Communications, ISKP’s main propaganda arm, is transnational.

ISKP has begun publishing books, magazines, print statements, and video translations in English to globalize its local and regional narratives. ISKP’s designated branch media organ has been central to the group’s revamped media and communications strategy. The outlet emerged from an ecosystem of competing but aligned pro-IS propaganda groups and became the primary media wing for the development and dissemination of ISKP messaging. It has been thoroughly weaponized and deployed to advance ISKP’s media warfare strategy, ramping up threats to a lengthened list of countries and declared enemies.

BLF-BLA spread visual propaganda by closely filming their attacks on the army and paramilitary personal. They film convoys when attacked by IED’s, with native music in the background to provoke the sentiments if the masses. Similarly, Baloch dissidents in London UK, hung posters of the militant organization, to induce a visual impact on the people, to detriment of our national policy.

ISKP’s, TTP’s and BLF-BLA wars against the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban governments are comprised of interconnected kinetic insurgent campaigns and media warfare efforts. These terror outfits release videos entirely focused on criticizing and threatening the Pakistani government for its moral corruption, religious degradation, domestic policies, and foreign relations. And they tend to generate lots of national and international media attention. It provides a succinct summation of core anti-Pakistan propaganda narratives the group has developed over the past few years.

Hostile elements may use such occasions in order to accomplish their heinous objectives. It is very unfortunate that anti-state actors are actively working against the national interests of the country to undermined the overall security environment of the country. They have been using Social Media such as Twitter, Facebook and You Tube and many others as well extensively to spread venom against state of Pakistan. All this is being done at the behest of particular groups in order to create political and economic instability and undermine overall security environment of the country.

Anti-state actors are actively working against the national interests of the country to undermined the overall security environment of the country. They have been using Social Media such as Twitter, Facebook and You Tube and many others as well extensively to spread venom against state of Pakistan.

To debunk propaganda claims, robust counter-narratives are needed especially on social media. Publicity is the bloodline of terrorist groups, as terrorism by definition is propaganda by deed. Terrorist groups practice violence to highlight their political or ethnic grievances, draw attention to their causes and demands, or promote their ideological worldviews. The advent of social media has further enhanced the importance of propaganda for terrorist groups. These days, social media wings are the most important part of any terrorist group’s organizational structure. Social media wings of terror groups are responsible for broadcasting their respective organizations’ viewpoints, serve as a means of communication with the outer world, and hunt for new potential recruits and donors.

To debunk propaganda claims, robust counter-narratives are needed especially on social media. Publicity is the bloodline of terrorist groups, as terrorism by definition is propaganda by deed.

In doing so it is also the responsibility of our national media, not to give too much wind to the narrative of the terrorists and try to limit showing the crime scenes very blatantly and respect the sentiments of the victims’ families, because such visual imagery has massive repercussions on the minds of public. As Noam Chomsky said: “Everyone’s worried about stopping terrorism. Well, there’s really an easy way: Stop participating in it.” Therefore, the only way to stop the spread of terrorism is to stop talking about it.

These terror groups robust propaganda strategy underscores the fact that military means alone will not be sufficient to overcome the ideological challenge it poses in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Instead, robust counter-narratives to debunking the group’s ideological claims with effective social media components will be crucial. The battle of ideas and narratives can only be won through better ideas and narratives, not bullets.

Robust counter-narratives to debunking the group’s ideological claims with effective social media components will be crucial. The battle of ideas and narratives can only be won through better ideas and narratives

Russia and Pakistan Energy Diplomacy

By
Dr. Usman
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0

The economy of Pakistan is under pressure, and several important economic indicators specify a dire scenario. The decision-makers must have a real debate about how they intend to take genuine action to address the difficulties ahead as the problems with oil, gas, and power worsen for the general public and the government. Unfortunately, we are mired in a political drama that never seems to let up.

The first shipment of crude oil and petroleum products is anticipated to enter Pakistan in late March after the completion of a definitive agreement between Pakistan and Russia. In Pakistan, to negotiate the contract, Russian Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov said that we have already resolved to prepare an agreement to address all of the concerns that we have with respect to volume, payments, insurance, and transportation.

It is the first significant step that Pakistan and Russia have taken toward developing their bilateral cooperation in oil and gas trading. Pakistan now intends to meet 35% of its whole crude oil need from Russia and start imports in a few months.

Even though certain important elements still need to be worked out, the agreement would greatly impact Pakistan’s economy and relations with the rest of the world if it were to go through. It is the first significant step that Pakistan and Russia have taken toward developing their bilateral cooperation in oil and gas trading.

In the past, discussions in this respect remained at the level of first expressions of interest. Pakistan now intends to meet 35% of its whole crude oil need from Russia and start imports in a few months. If all goes according to plan, the trade may significantly alter the bilateral relationship, enabling both nations to better organize their interactions.

Most of Pakistan’s imports are made up of energy, and the country would benefit from cheaper oil from Russia by being able to control its growing trade imbalance and balance-of-payments issue. To pay for Russian oil, Pakistan is anticipated to utilize the Chinese yuan.

The possibility of importing gas and oil from Russia also gives Pakistan another outlet to acquire oil at a lower cost. This is crucial since Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves are adequate to pay for three weeks’ worth of oil imports, putting the country in a similar scenario to the default. Most of Pakistan’s imports are made up of energy, and the country would benefit from cheaper oil from Russia by being able to control its growing trade imbalance and balance-of-payments issue. To pay for Russian oil, Pakistan is anticipated to utilize the Chinese yuan. The joint declaration states that the oil and gas trade transactions would be set up such that both nations profit after an agreement on the technical specification has been reached. This may lessen some of the strain on Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves.

The outcome is also a significant diplomatic victory for Pakistan. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it seems that Pakistan has discovered a means to evade the sanctions imposed by the West. Pakistan might not have gone this far in talks with Russia if it had been concerned that the agreement would upset the United States and its allies. This is especially significant since Pakistan is now in negotiations for another review to allow the release of significant money from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The speed at which Pakistan and Russia are closing a deal suggests that the United States may not oppose the two nations doing commerce. It’s also probable that Pakistan accepted American advice while deciding to acquire Russian oil. The United States and Pakistan’s usual Gulf energy suppliers have not yet made any public declarations objecting to Islamabad’s continuing talks with Moscow.

The U.S. seems ready to ignore the agreement. Ned Price, a spokesman for the State Department, said that “the U.S. was sensitive to the difficulty of stabilizing Pakistan’s economy. I know Pakistan’s collaboration with the IMF and other global financial organizations. We want Pakistan to be in a situation where its economy is stable”. According to reports, Washington has increased financial involvement with the present Pakistani administration. A team of top U.S. Department of Treasury officials is scheduled to visit Pakistan shortly to address various areas of financial assistance for Pakistan. In addition, the American embassy in Islamabad plans a seminar on energy security challenges for Pakistan in March.

For Pakistan, everything seems to be going well. It is encountering little opposition in its efforts to reach an agreement with Moscow. Now, Islamabad should concentrate on fulfilling all technical requirements to guarantee that Russian supplies reach Pakistan’s ports as soon as possible. Thus, the IGC session is crucial and significant. The general diplomacy in the Asian area around energy and gas has also caught Pakistan off guard. A power struggle between the two giants has developed out of what started as China’s economic sway over the ASEAN area. It is now being fueled by Russia’s attempts to advance east. India’s oil consumption appeared to have no boundaries as it devoured roughly 60 million barrels of Russian oil in 2022. Is India only trying to restock its oil supplies, or is it attempting to sway regional oil diplomacy on the Quad’s behalf? With the best U.S. oil refineries awaiting Russian oil supply, which has been speculated as another reason for the increased Indian oil supply, a ban on Russia from Europe does not have a significant impact on its oil and gas supply. The officials’ nerves will be tested as they attempt to clinch a successful deal, particularly with the IMF watching their every move intently.

Pakistan’s greatst failure has been the inability to recognize the actual problems that we are currently facing and the propensity of moving funds from one area to another over the last 75 years without truly paying our bills and commitments. The most recent Geneva Convention is a prime example of this pattern when Pakistan obtained bank and soft loans totaling more than $ 9 billion to avoid the looming economic crisis. The facilitators of Pakistani government machinery need to reevaluate several things, including their upcoming diplomatic commitments and agreements as well as our internal competence.

The U.S. seems ready to ignore the agreement. Ned Price, a spokesman for the State Department, said that “the U.S. was sensitive to the difficulty of stabilizing Pakistan’s economy. I know Pakistan’s collaboration with the IMF and other global financial organizations. We want Pakistan to be in a situation where its economy is stable”. According to reports, Washington has increased financial involvement with the present Pakistani administration. A team of top U.S. Department of Treasury officials is scheduled to visit Pakistan shortly to address various areas of financial assistance for Pakistan. In addition, the American embassy in Islamabad plans a seminar on energy security challenges for Pakistan in March.

For Pakistan, everything seems to be going well. It is encountering little opposition in its efforts to reach an agreement with Moscow. Now, Islamabad should concentrate on fulfilling all technical requirements to guarantee that Russian supplies reach Pakistan’s ports as soon as possible. Thus, the IGC session is crucial and significant. The general diplomacy in the Asian area around energy and gas has also caught Pakistan off guard. A power struggle between the two giants has developed out of what started as China’s economic sway over the ASEAN area. It is now being fueled by Russia’s attempts to advance east. India’s oil consumption appeared to have no boundaries as it devoured roughly 60 million barrels of Russian oil in 2022. Is India only trying to restock its oil supplies, or is it attempting to sway regional oil diplomacy on the Quad’s behalf? With the best U.S. oil refineries awaiting Russian oil supply, which has been speculated as another reason for the increased Indian oil supply, a ban on Russia from Europe does not have a significant impact on its oil and gas supply. The officials’ nerves will be tested as they attempt to clinch a successful deal, particularly with the IMF watching their every move intently.

Pakistan’s greatest failure has been the inability to recognize the actual problems that we are currently facing and the propensity of moving funds from one area to another over the last 75 years without truly paying our bills and commitments. The most recent Geneva Convention is a prime example of this pattern when Pakistan obtained bank and soft loans totaling more than $ 9 billion to avoid the looming economic crisis. The facilitators of Pakistani government machinery need to reevaluate several things, including their upcoming diplomatic commitments and agreements as well as our internal competence.

Emerging Strategic relations between China and Saudi Arabia

By
Dr. Fatime Mehdi
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0

Saudi Arabia and China have pledged to strengthen relations as part of their foreign policy, establishing an example of solidarity and cooperation for developing nations. The two sides reaffirmed their commitment to steadfastly defending each other’s core interests, upholding one another’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and working together to defend international law norms, norms of international relations, and the fundamental precepts of international relations.

The two sides reaffirmed their commitment to steadfastly defending each other's core interests, upholding one another's territorial integrity and sovereignty, and working together to defend international law norms, norms of international relations, and the fundamental precepts of international relations.

The Saudi side reiterated its support for the one-China tenet. Furthermore, the Chinese side reaffirmed its opposition to any actions that would meddle in the internal affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its support for the Kingdom in maintaining its security and stability. It also rejected any attacks directed against civilians, civilian facilities, territories, and Saudi interests.  The Chinese government received greetings from the Saudi side for holding the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party successfully. The Chinese side also commended the Kingdom for its outstanding accomplishments in national development under the umbrella of Vision 2030.

The abundant oil resources in the Kingdom and China's broad markets for their oil trade volume and the solid foundations of their collaboration, the expansion and strengthening of collaboration in the energy sector are consistent with the shared interests. The two states emphasized the significance of oil market stability globally.

Both parties acknowledged their increased collaboration in the energy sector as a vital strategic alliance. They also praised the abundant oil resources in the Kingdom and China’s broad markets for their oil trade volume and the solid foundations of their collaboration. Additionally, they said that the expansion and strengthening of collaboration in the energy sector are consistent with the shared interests of both parties. They also emphasized the significance of oil market stability globally. China appreciated the Kingdom’s position as a dependable major crude oil supplier to China as well as a supporter of the equilibrium and stability in the global oil markets. The two parties decided to increase their collaboration in various industries and projects, including electricity, the solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources, and to look into potential joint investment prospects in the petrochemicals industry.

The two states commitment to advancing cooperation and coordination in the defense and security fields, enhancing and raising the level of information and expertise exchange in the fight against organized crime, including terrorist crimes, and preventing violence and extremism.

The two sides reaffirmed their commitment to advancing cooperation and coordination in the defense and security fields, enhancing and raising the level of information and expertise exchange in the fight against organized crime, including terrorist crimes, and preventing violence and extremism. Both countries reaffirmed their opposition to and condemn extremism and terrorism in all its manifestations, their refusal to associate terrorism with any particular society, race, or religion, their rejection of applying differential standards to the fight against terrorism, and the significance of promoting moderation and tolerance.

In view of the present geopolitical events, both countries also emphasized the need to convene China-GCC and Arab-Chinese summits and reaffirmed their support for the concept of a China-Arab community with a shared destiny in the new age. Additionally, they emphasized their appreciation for the Forum’s significant contribution to advancing bilateral cooperation between China and Arab nations and their desire to be involved in its creation and growth. Additionally, they emphasized the significance of working together to expand the strategic partnership ties between the GCC States and China, reach a free trade agreement, and advance plans for the 6+1 GCC-China Meeting of Ministers of Economy and Trade.

Both countries also emphasized the need to convene China-GCC and Arab-Chinese summits reaffirmed their support for the concept of a China-Arab community with a shared destiny in the new age.

The two sides reaffirmed their commitment to coordinating and stepping up efforts to maintain international peace and security, as well as their determination to continue doing so in the appropriate organizations and to call for constructive dialogue in order to advance the goals and tenets of the United Nations Charter and the core ideas guiding international relations. On the basis of respect for the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of the States in the area, they also agreed on the need to seek diplomatic and political solutions to the region’s insistent problems.

The two parties also acknowledged the need to bolster their collaboration and partnership to assist stability and development on the African continent.

The Chinese side praised the Kingdom’s good contributions and exceptional support for the advancement of regional and global peace and stability. The Saudi side applauded China’s actions and efforts to bring about security and stability in the Middle East. The two parties also acknowledged the need to bolster their collaboration and partnership to assist stability and development on the African continent.

The Saudi side voiced its support for the Xi Jinping-led Global Development Initiative and said it looked forward to cooperating within its framework. This would help hasten the implementation of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The Saudi side also praised the Global Security Initiative, which Chinese President Xi Jinping established. They also emphasized the significance of working together to advance inclusive global development for the benefit of all parties involved and the necessity of maintaining stable global energy markets.

Balochistan’s Development

By
Asad Malik
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0

Balochistan is situated at an important geostrategic position in the region. It is positioned on the cultural, socio-economic, and geographical crossroads of Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia, and opposite to Strait of Hormuz. These potentials could make the province an industrial hub with a massive government and private investment in various sectors of the province. However, this potential has not been realized for a myriad of reasons. According to a rough estimation, around 21 million barrels of crude oil pass through Strait of Hormuz daily.

Balochistan shares a 900 km border with Iran and 1,200 km with Afghanistan, which opens access to these mineral-rich and strategically important areas. It also marks an entry point into the resource-rich landlocked provinces of Punjab and KP. Its geographical proximity to oil and gas deposits of CARs adds to its strategic importance.

Balochistan shares a 900 km border with Iran and 1,200 km with Afghanistan, which opens access to these mineral-rich and strategically important areas. Its geographical proximity to oil and gas deposits of CARs adds to its strategic importance.

The important strategic location places Balochistan at the crossroad of a potential intra- and inter-regional trade. Successive governments in Islamabad have been making all-out efforts to bring Balochistan on a par with other parts of the country in terms of development and economic stability as the strength of federation depends on equal level of progress in all federating units. The government is determined to ensure uplift of Baluchi people and provide them facilities in all areas particularly education and health, on a par with the rest of the country.

In order to facilitate maximum deprived students of Balochistan, both Punjab government and federal have increased the number of scholarships from 135 to 360 for the students of Balochistan pursuing higher education. The federal government would provide maximum funds for them in the education sector. The federal government officials also called upon the youth of Balochistan and the entire country to make their mark in the field of education and bring laurels to the country.

The question then arises that despite possessing precious resources, why Balochistan is still underdeveloped. Below, some broad-brush explanations are attempted. One of the major complaints of the people of Balochistan is that although the province is resource-rich, the benefits of abundant resources have not accrued to the province’s residents, at least not to an average Baloch.

The power structure in Balochistan is very complex, which has hindered socio-economic development in the province. One of the reasons for lower socio-economic development in Balochistan is a strong tribal hierarchy. In Balochistan, a vibrant middle class is missing. Instead, Balochistan is divided between a tiny but extremely powerful class of tribal chieftains and the remaining lower class, and a small group of public sector employees. The absence of middle class, which can have an assertive politics to further its social and economic interest, is one of the main reasons for polarization. In other words, one may argue that it is the power nexus of the state of Pakistan and local elites and elected representatives that maneuver the governance in the province in such an exploitative way that only upholds and nurtures their political and economic interest at the very cost of common mass.

There is mistrust between the people of Balochistan and political class. The security situation or the perceived threat of terrorism is hindering private investment in Balochistan. The real estate and construction sectors are flourishing but not the other productive/employment-generating sectors. Investment in real estate is predominantly by wealthy Afghan immigrants. Despite the presence of some quality higher education institutions, the overall quality of education is declining.

Improve infrastructure in far-flung areas to facilitate access for fruits, agricultural produce, cattle, sheep, and goats to the market. Rationalize water pricing to improve the water scarcity in Quetta and the rest of Balochistan. Remove unnecessary security checkpoints to facilitate the transport of traded goods to other cities and provinces. Set up storage facilities and food processing units in public-private ownership mode. Give a fair share to the province in mineral extraction and production. Provide land and utilities at attractive rates so that private investment is encouraged.

There is, thus, a need to address and remove their misgivings. Balochistan is too important and large a province to be left hanging in the status quo. With the right policies and planning, and assimilating the residents of Balochistan into the mainstream, the province can play a substantial role in uplifting Pakistan’s economy. It has already played a huge part in Pakistan’s development by providing natural gas to the whole of Pakistan.

With the right policies and planning, and assimilating the residents of Balochistan into the mainstream, the province can play a substantial role in uplifting Pakistan’s economy.

The proactive and constructive participation of nationalist parties such as PKMAP, Balochistan National Party (BNP) and BNP-M (Mengal) group in provincial elections and their participation in Balochistan’s administration can confer sufficient legitimacy on provincial government. A strong and credible Baloch government can strengthen local control over the province, help reduce violence, and advocate for Balochistan on the federal level. Politicians and all stakeholders must come forward and join hands and set aside their political difference in order to uplift the country.

Taliban and the Crisis in Afghanistan

By
Dr. Usman
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2

In 2021, the Afghan Taliban took back control of Afghanistan after fighting a rebellion for twenty years. The Taliban reformed and began regaining territory less than 10 years after the American-led invasion that overthrew the previous regime in 2001. In line with a 2020 peace agreement with the Taliban, they staged a swift assault as the US started to evacuate its last forces from Afghanistan.

Even though they promised to preserve the rights of women and communities of religious and racial minorities, the Taliban have enforced a strict interpretation of Islamic law. The Taliban have failed to provide Afghans with sufficient food supplies and economic possibilities as they have evolved from an insurgent organization to a functioning administration.

Numerous instances of human rights violations have been documented by the UN mission in Afghanistan. Because the Taliban scared off journalists and put limits on press freedom, more than 200 news outlets had to close. Activists and protesters have been tracked and forcefully disappeared, and their government has ruthlessly suppressed protests. They also reinstated the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice, which was previously in place, and enforced laws against actions judged to be contrary to Islam. They instructed judges to apply their version of sharia in November 2022; in the following weeks, authorities resumed public hangings and floggings.

Women's rights have been undermined. Due to restrictions put in place by the Taliban, girls are not allowed to go to high school, and women are not allowed to go to college or teach there. The group banned women from working for local and international voluntary groups in December 2022.

Women’s rights have been undermined. Due to restrictions put in place by the Taliban, girls are not allowed to go to high school, and women are not allowed to go to college or teach there. The group banned women from working for local and international voluntary groups in December 2022. According to estimates from the UN Development Program (UNDP), limiting women’s employment might cost Afghanistan’s GDP up to 5%. Amnesty International reports a substantial increase in the number of women jailed for defying discriminatory rules, such as those requiring women to cover their whole bodies while in public and to only appear with male chaperones. In addition, there are now more child marriages.

The UNDP says that the Taliban’s rule has also taken away the gains that Afghans made in their living conditions in the 20 years after the US invasion. In a study from October 2022, the organization claimed that practically all Afghans were living in poverty. Since the takeover, the economy has contracted by up to 30%, and there have been an estimated 700,000 job losses. More than 90% of individuals are impacted by food insecurity. The problem is getting worse because several countries and international groups have stopped giving aid, which is vital to the economy and public health.

The violence has also increased along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, which has always supported the Taliban. Its commonly believed Tehrik-e-Taliban, a terrorist organization commonly referred to as the Pakistani (faux Taliban), have gained strength after the Taliban's ascent to power.

International observers are nonetheless worried that the Taliban pose a danger to national and international security through their funding of terrorist groups, especially Al-Qaeda. Taliban leadership might convert Afghanistan into a haven for terrorists who could launch attacks against the US and its allies, despite Taliban pledges that the country’s territory wouldn’t be used against the security of any other country. The violence has also increased along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan, which has always supported the Taliban. Its commonly believed Tehrik-e-Taliban, a terrorist organization commonly referred to as the Pakistani (faux Taliban), have gained strength after the Taliban’s ascent to power. The organization broke off a cease-fire with the Pakistani government in 2022 and began carrying out assaults throughout the nation. Officials from Pakistan have charged the Afghan Taliban with giving the extremists a safe harbor in their country. For many years, the Afghan government relied on help from a number of countries; according to 2019 World Bank research, contributions from foreign partners funded 75% of the government’s public expenditures. Many of these countries stopped off aid when the Taliban took control, fueling concerns about potential future economic turmoil.

Taliban Leadership

Nevertheless, aid rose in 2022 as donors sent more than $2.6 billion. The US has donated more than $1.1 billion in help since the coup. However, according to UN authorities, the pledges fell short of the nation’s humanitarian requirements. Many Western countries, most notably the US, shut down their diplomatic posts in Afghanistan when the Taliban took power. Diplomatic relations and recognition have been withheld from the Taliban regime, which refers to Afghanistan as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Diplomatic relations and recognition have been withheld from the Taliban regime, which refers to Afghanistan as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The UN General Assembly has also postponed a decision on who would indefinitely represent Afghanistan at the UN.

The UN General Assembly has also postponed a decision on who would indefinitely represent Afghanistan at the UN. The Taliban are now being investigated by the International Criminal Court for suspected atrocities, including crimes against humanity, committed against Afghans.

Strategic Realignment in Middle East and US Priorities

By
Asad Malik
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0

Changing global strategic environment, in the aftermath of recent developments, has left serious concerns for developing as well as developed states. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added fuel to the fire and created severe global food crisis. With regards to China, there is an unfortunate tendency in US strategic circles to compartmentalize by geography as China watchers look at Beijing, but for too long ignored its inroads in Africa and Americas. Russia specialists watch Kremlin but ignore Moscow’s inroads far beyond Russia’s borders.

Similarly, Middle East may have been the focus of US strategy for past quarter-century, but both US State Department and Pentagon divide it between EU, near Eastern and African bureaus. So, it is with recent Middle East peace moves. What is happening in Arab-Israeli peace is historic, and no amount of partisanship in Washington can credibly detract from it. But as momentous as slow collapse of Arab-Israeli conflict and strategic reorientation within Middle East is, its impact on South Asia will also be momentous.

At the same time, strategic pundits in New Delhi increasingly embraces the new order. There can be no mistaking importance of strategic realignment in Middle East. The decision first by UAE and next Bahrain to normalize their ties with Israel formalize a détente that has been years in the making. All indications are that KSA could be next, which is possible but not in near future.

For greater so-called regional political, economic and strategic integration, Arab capitals are recognizing Israel because they want to enhance their outreach. Iran is a major reason for change. From its foundation, Iran has brought Israel’s genocidal eradication as core policy. While Iran’s post-revolutionary policy toward Gulf Arab states has been more nuanced, Iranian government’s willingness to export revolution throughout Middle East and incite unrest in Bahrain, Kuwait, and KSA had led Gulf states to view Iranian regime through the prism of fundamental challenge particularly in the region.

Arab States that recognize Israel

KSA has been suffering from direct attacks, emanating from Yemen, launched by Iranian backed proxies. Sudan, which once pledged firm rejection of negotiations with let alone recognition of Israel now seeks to join moderate camp. Iraq, once home to the most radical Palestinian factions, may not have peace with Israel on its agenda, but no longer seeks to obstruct it either. Likewise, Middle East realignment may also reverberate through South Asia, albeit not in entirely positive ways.

Moreover, Israel and India have already broken the ice, notwithstanding India’s substantial economic ties to Iran. However, Saudi pivot toward the peace bloc is causing Pakistan to move the other directions as well and to seek comfort. Islamabad will have to act promptly in order to accomplish its political, economic and strategic objectives. It cannot ignore its bonding with Gulf allies, who are the life support of Pakistan’s economy. Policy makers in Islamabad will have to maintain balanced diplomacy keeping in view Pakistan’s strong bonding with Tehran and Doha.

Zalmay Khalilzad and the top US general in Afghanistan met with the Taliban negotiating team in Doha, including Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar

US State Department and Pentagon must recognize the importance of Pakistan’s shifting alliances. The Trump-era peace deal with Afghan Taliban has been empowering radical Islamists (TTP/ ISKP) to further and formalizes their de facto safe-haven. Countries that prioritize ideology above both peace and their economic development tend to spiral downward into ever more radical postures as they seek to distract from their own failings. It seems strange to consider, but gradually KSA has been quickly becoming a moderating force in region

Still, the ideological divergences and conflicts of interest both are likely to continue to cause tension among Arab states. Despite reconciliation, rich Arabian organization GCC is still far from being an effective regional organization. It is acting like defensive alliance rather than being an offensive one. It has failed to show its strategic pivot at global fronts despite having massive economic opportunities for rest of the world. The described normalization processes and rapprochements reflect the power shifts of the last decade. They can be explained by countries’ changing assessments of regional security situation, shared threat perceptions and converging interests especially of Gulf States and Israel.

Likewise, US government can rebalance America’s policy in Middle East through diplomacy, economic statecraft, and security cooperation while shifting away from direct military action. Even with the revival of the nuclear deal, it is unlikely that US or its security partners will be able to reach a viable grand bargain with Iran any time soon. Only with time and generational change in Iran’s political leadership will actual, sustainable rapprochement prove possible.

Lastly, the Abraham Accords and Arab-Israeli strategic partnership, which was concluded through mediation of Trump administration, were diplomatic achievements that broke the inertia of regional conflict even though they did not address Palestinian issue as a priority. As a result, Biden administration will keep US embassy in Jerusalem instead of Tel Aviv and should be prepared to endure Palestinian criticism.

Abraham Accords – Bahraini foreign minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu American president Donald Trump Emirati foreign minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan

In addition, US Middle East policy faces several ongoing obstacles, including Russia’s increasing regional influence, the rise of China, and the intensification of proxy civil wars in Syria, Yemen, and Libya. The strengthening of anti-US solidarity between Russia, Iran, and China will also be a serious challenge.

China and South Asia: China’s Impact on Strategic Regions

By
Ambassador Masood Khalid
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0


As the world finds itself at the cusp of a new Cold War, China’s interest in South Asia and Pakistan-China relations is a subject of greater scrutiny. South Asia is of immense strategic significance for China in the context of its “neighbourhood diplomacy”. China has had historical linkages through religion, culture and trade with South Asia. Being home to nearly 25% of the world’s population, a civilisational melting pot, a regional tri-junction, resource-rich and dynamic yet poor, and last but not the least, nuclearized and turmoil-ridden, South Asia presents numerous challenges as well as opportunities for China. Its stability is inextricably linked to China’s own stability. Since the region is least integrated economically, China offers herself to be a partner in South Asia’s regional outreach and development. Moreover, in the evolving geo-political dynamics, South Asia is fast emerging as a sub-region of the larger Indo-Pacific theatre where the US-China rivalry is in full play.

South Asia is of immense strategic significance for China in the context of its "neighbourhood diplomacy". A civilisational melting pot, a regional tri-junction, resource-rich and dynamic and nuclearized and turmoil-ridden, South Asia presents numerous challenges as well as opportunities for China. Its stability is inextricably linked to China's own stability.

An important postulate of China’s Foreign Policy is a “peaceful neighbourhood”. China believes that it cannot insulate itself from the fire in its neighbourhood. Turmoil in the region means annulling the economic gains of the last few decades made by China. While China is in no position to prevent turmoil in South Asia, it certainly can work to encourage interlocking cooperative arrangements with regional countries as stakeholders. BRI is premised on this rationale.

Pakistan was amongst the first countries to join BRI. Its principal offshoot, CPEC, has now entered into its second phase, with a much larger canvass of bilateral cooperation. China is opening up its western regions in close proximity to Pakistan, offering a unique opportunity to leverage its geographic location, through enhanced trade and investment benefitting both South Asia and the wider region. Through CPEC, Pakistan can optimise its potential to serve as a regional trade and energy hub and overcome its infrastructure and development deficit. Being equal stakeholders in CPEC, both Pakistan and China attach high importance to its successful implementation.

It is unfortunate that CPEC has become a victim of US-China rivalry and is being made deliberately controversial to drive a wedge in China-Pakistan relations. CPEC is essentially an economic partnership project with no sinister designs as borne out by the good intentions of its extension to Afghanistan, basically to help the war-ravaged country to stand on its own feet. While India’s hostility to CPEC is rooted in its deep animosity towards Pakistan, the US stance is not comprehensible especially as several countries wish to join the initiative. Pakistan has been approached by key Central Asian countries to allow them access to the ports in Pakistan for their overseas trade. Being landlocked, these countries see CPEC as a silver lining and a window to advance their economic and business interests. And they look to China as a logical partner with the capacity to deliver in this endeavour.

While Southwest Asia appears gearing up to explore new avenues of cooperation, South Asian peace and progress have remained a hostage to India’s ambition to be a policeman of the region. India’s disputes with its neighbours and its frenzied arms acquisitions are destabilizing the region. Riding on the crest of the US embrace as a net security provider, India has abandoned its pretence of being non-partisan or independent in its foreign policy choices. Its association with QUAD, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), foundational and logistic agreements with the USA, security arrangements with littoral states of the Indian Ocean and its extra-regional power projection through active participation in anti-China military and naval exercises, should put to rest any notions about its much trumpeted” strategic ambiguity”.

Riding on the crest of the US embrace as a net security provider, India has abandoned its pretence of being non-partisan or independent in its foreign policy choices. Its association with QUAD, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), foundational and logistic agreements with the USA.
Chinese President Xi Jing Ping and QUAD member leaders
QUAD member leaders

In its quest to dominate the region, India has made SAARC dysfunctional, created a dangerous border standoff with China and muzzled Kashmiri’s voice by annexing the Jammu and Kashmir territory in complete disregard of its obligations under UN Security Council resolutions. The dialogue with Pakistan is stalled. By opposing CPEC, it is, in fact, depriving Afghanistan and other interested countries of its fruits.

Ironically, despite being important trade partners, China’s relations with India suffer from deep mistrust. While an uneasy calm prevails on the Pakistan-India border after a ceasefire agreement in 2021, the same could not be said about the India-China border. As recent events have shown, skirmishes between Indian and Chinese forces could lead to a major clash, especially in view of reported reinforcements on the border.   Some analysts hold the view that BJP led government can also attempt a strike on Pakistan before it holds elections in 2024 to bolster its electoral support. While that would be a serious miscalculation on India’s part, the cascading effect of perpetual tensions in relations between India and China or India and Pakistan, on the security and stability of South Asia, should not be discounted.  US decision to array India vis a vis China has severely undermined security equilibrium in the region. This conflict-prone syndrome has the potential for a wider regional conflagration.

Pakistan’s position is precarious. Pakistan cannot insulate itself from the impact of major power competition nor can it afford to stay away from positive momentum towards regional economic integration. Historically, Pakistan has maintained close relations with the US, notwithstanding highs and lows in the relationship. Its relations with China have throughout been steady and time-tested. Pakistan wishes to pursue the two relationships based on their respective strengths. The trajectory of each relationship is differently grounded on the principles of mutual benefit and bilateralism. Pakistan does not wish to be part of any bloc politics. However, it will have to navigate its diplomacy skilfully as it faces a triangular conflictual situation: US-China; China-India, and India- Pakistan.

Given the past history, Pakistan and China feel confident in their relationship. Imperatives of regional peace and security and congruence of interests drive Pakistan-China relations. In the changing international environment, this relationship is a bright spot and a constant in Pakistan’s Foreign Policy. The level of bilateral cooperation is deep and substantive. China has shown the understanding, capacity and will to help Pakistan. Despite domestic and global changes, the Pakistan-China friendship has displayed remarkable poise. The trust enshrining this relationship is manifest in their mutual support for each other’s core issues. There is no cause for conflict in this relationship, only potential for its future growth as both sides have a convergence of views on key issues. This mutual support is not driven only by geo-political considerations but also by their shared perspective on upholding the principles of the UN Charter and international law, multilateralism and justice in inter-state relations. Both oppose hegemony, unilateralism and a zero-sum approach. This relationship is not against any country. The core principles of mutual trust, mutual respect and non-interference define this relationship. It would not have sustained so long, were it based on expediency. Both Pakistan and China desire that all regional countries, big or small, should be equal stakeholders in South Asia’s peace and development.

China is helping Pakistan with its economic stability. Its assistance in the military sphere is not to unleash an arms race but to enable Pakistan to have a credible defence capability in a dangerously asymmetric security environment. China believes that a strong Pakistan is a guarantee of regional peace and stability and a bulwark against terrorism and extremism. CPEC is also aimed at facilitating Pakistan’s journey on the road of self-reliance through the injection of capital and technology. Being a large country, Pakistan’s significance in South Asian strategic calculus is duly recognised by China.

Since China has invested heavily in BRI and CPEC, it is rightly concerned over the spike in terrorist activities in Pakistan and attacks on its assets, orchestrated by BLA, TTP, ISIS and ETIM. It is also concerned with the fluidity of the situation in Afghanistan. Since the Taliban assumed power in Kabul, China has remained actively engaged with them and offered economic assistance. China has urged the Taliban to show flexibility on the question of girls’ education and respect for international norms. It has also emphasised the need for a broad-based inclusive dispensation in Afghanistan. For a substantial increase in its economic commitment, China has sought guarantees from the Taliban that Afghan territory will not be used for terrorism against its neighbours. China has urged the USA to de-freeze Afghanistan’s monetary assets.

China's role in the reconstruction of the Afghan war-ravaged economy and Pakistan's role as a facilitator of logistic support. China's offer of investing in Afghanistan's mineral and energy sectors could be a transformational factor.
Wang Yi is a Chinese senior Diplomat and Politician on Afghanistan Post US exit

China’s role in the reconstruction of the Afghan war-ravaged economy and Pakistan’s role as a facilitator of logistic support through Gwadar and Karachi ports for its supply of machinery and equipment are complimentary. China’s offer of investing in Afghanistan’s mineral and energy sectors and in road and railway development could be a transformational factor in turning around its economy and connecting her in the region. China is aware that inimical forces are working to derail its sponsored projects in Afghanistan. The country’s descent into chaos is a nightmarish scenario for Afghanistan’s neighbours including China, which fears a spillover of terrorism and extremist tendencies in its Xinjiang region, which is a crucial node for BRI’s connectivity with Eurasia. China is, therefore, keen to evolve a regional consensus for stabilising Afghanistan. Both Pakistan and China agree that peace in Afghanistan is indispensable for BRI’s success. Strategic communication and enhanced coordination between Pakistan and China on the evolving situation is extremely important. There are indications of attempts being made to destabilize Afghanistan, Pakistan and China simultaneously by some foreign powers
using proxies.

As close strategic partners and neighbours, Pakistan and China face the prospects of growing instability and turbulence in their periphery. If the security situation becomes precarious, both countries need to ensure that their relationship remains a strong deterrent against forces seeking to undermine it. The fallout of a sharpened competition between China and the US in this region could be quite adverse. It is imperative that regional countries do not drag extra-regional powers into their disputes. While Pakistan and China seek an improvement in their relations with India, their policy is at variance with regional trends to foster connectivity and cooperation. It would not be wise to stop the wheel of progress. China’s rise is a reality. It would be more prudent to coexist with this reality than counter it. For most countries, China is a bigger trading partner than the US, so they would not like to choose sides. Even US allies would not like to choose between China and USA. As Fareed Zakaria cautioned in an article in Foreign Affairs, the China challenge is being exaggerated and the consequences of not getting it right could be huge for the United States. Whereas US in its bid to counter China is expanding its presence in the Asian Pacific Region by employing the strategy of US Forward Defence Ring policy.

Pakistan considers China to be a voice of reason and restraint in international affairs.  It is the common choice of Pakistan and China to develop a partnership that serves the fundamental interests of the two countries and contributes constructively to the peace and stability of South Asia. US in its bid to counter China is expanding its presence in the Asian Pacific Region by employing the strategy of US Forward Defence Ring policy.

Pakistan considers China to be a voice of reason and restraint in international affairs. It is the common choice of Pakistan and China to develop a partnership that serves the fundamental interests of the two countries and contributes constructively to the peace and stability of South Asia. On its part, Pakistan needs to address Chinese concerns over the security of its assets and personnel in Pakistan, settle the outstanding payments to Chinese IPPs, facilitate the repatriation of profits of Chinese companies, eliminate red tapism blocking Chinese investments and fast-track the development of SEZs to attract Chinese businesses to invest. Given the fragility of our economic conditions, setting up of export-based joint ventures with China, development of agriculture development and demonstration zones, IT and Science Parks, participation in Chinese exhibitions and expos, business-to-business interaction and youth exchanges should be matters of priority. Chinese involvement is necessary in countering negativity about CPEC, which is no doubt a catalyst for our economic development but not a panacea for all our economic ills. But it is a rare window of opportunity which should not be missed.

India’s Final Showdown with China: An Epic or a Tragedy?

By
Asim Bakhshi
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5

Readers of Indian and Chinese mythology cannot miss the striking contrast between respective cultural outlooks of civilizational attitudes to armed conflict. Take, for instance, the case of the epic poem Mahabharata and its Chinese counterpart, Romance of the Three Kingdoms. The central idea of both stories is a struggle for power and control, narrated through a central conflict between rival factions. In the Mahabharata, the conflict is between the Pandavas and the Kauravas, two branches of the same family fighting for control of the Kuru kingdom. In the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, the conflict is between the different kingdoms vying for control of China during the end of the Han dynasty and the beginning of the Three Kingdoms period. Both stories also feature complex political maneuvering and strategic planning as characters try to gain an advantage over their rivals. Characters in both stories use alliances, betrayals, and other forms of political manipulation to gain the upper hand.

But these common elements are merely the cutting ingredients that leave the first mark on the palate. Deep down under these layered epics, there are contrasting civilizational psychologies at interplay. The key difference here is the political and strategic context. While Mahabartha is more of a microcosmic tale, focusing on the moral and ethical implications of the actions of the characters, Romance of the Three Kingdoms displays a macrocosmic grandeur with a tinge of pragmatic and instrumental utilitarianism, with a focus on practical and tactical aspects of the actions of the characters. Additionally, the Mahabharata is more of a family feud, whereas the Romance of the Three Kingdoms is more about the struggle for power between different territories, with the involvement of many different kingdoms and their respective rulers.

This subtle contrast sets the stage for delving into the capturing prologue of Pravin Sawhney’s recent book on the final showdown between India and China. A quite pessimistic but seemingly realistic take on the strategic state of affairs in Indian politico-military enterprise, Sawhney builds a fictional war scenario in which the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China launches a multi-pronged cyber attack on India in February 2024, achieves full spectrum superiority in communication and air jamming, and deploys humanoid armies to assault Indian soldiers. The war lasts for just a week and results in China gaining control of Ladakh, North Sikkim, and the northern border of Arunachal. Pakistan Army also joins in with the PAF attacking LoC, and it successfully pushes it further at many points. Interestingly, while the Pandavas and the Kauravas of Mahabharata demonstrate a deep understanding of the situation and the complexly interwoven forces at play, develop plans for how to gain the upper hand in the conflict, and make decisions about when and how to engage in battle, the modern day war pandits of Modi’s India find themselves clueless in the face of a massive cyber attack. While the mythological characters of the epic use different strategies, such as diplomacy, deception, and psychological warfare, to gain an advantage over their opponents, the war room in the prime minister’s office wonders: why is this happening, and how can a weapon that doesn’t hurt physically be dangerous?

Sawhney, who is a retired army officer and a prolific writer on various aspects of security as well Sino-Indian conflict, argues from the onset that the Indian army will lose any future war with China, not because it is not prepared but because it is prepared for a wrong war. While Modi’s government has restricted military strategy to perception management, China is well ahead in achieving excellence in the cognitive domain. As to answer the key question of why China would want such a conflict, Sawhney answers that it will draw ten advantages out of it, including humbling India in the region and getting the first mover advantage in AI technologies-backed war against the USA. Interestingly, in such a conflict, Pakistan will also take the Siachen glacier.

The book comprises four parts, beginning with a review of the cooperative security model of China where it is taking the belt and road initiative to revive a sort of middle kingdom. China’s Sputnik movement, in this regard, was AlphaGo beating Lee Sedol. This was the time of strategic revelation that AI is the ultimate future, and within months of Sedol’s defeat, China July 2017 released its super-ambitious New Generation AI Development Plan. Google’s CEO at that time, Eric Schmidt, said that by 2020 they will catch up with the USA, by 2025, they will be better than the USA, and by 2030, they will dominate global industries of AI. The first part of the book also speaks about two security architectures and how 5G networks are part of this AI initiative.

Book two is a sustained indulgence in self-reflection, especially in terms of threats to India and how the Indian military is politicized beyond recovery. It cites the incident when PAF launched Operation Swift Retort in response to the 26th Feb 2019 air bombing on Balakot and how India couldn’t respond back due to its limited air capability and not having a political will to assert. The most interesting part for the military strategist with a technological hat is a lengthy take on the future of war in general and how technology is modernizing warfare. This includes human command and robotic control, autonomous weapon systems, the invisible war with cyber social operations, and advances in missile systems, drones, and nuclear capabilities. The most important part here is how AI would come out as an integrating force to serve as a nerve center for netcentric and intelligent decision-making.

An underlining factor is that the data being the backbone of training these AI-driven systems must be operationally meaningful with real-time battlefield intelligence, or otherwise, the algorithms will either overfit or prove simply useless due to garbage-in garbage-out scenarios. China, while initially training its battlefield AI systems on laboratory-grade data and simulations, is also improving the robustness and efficiency of its models through adversarial and reinforcement learning drawn from realistic data coming from actual operational exercises on the ground. Sawhney quotes first-hand experiences of how India is nowhere near this kind of thinking in its AI development.

The last part of the book speculates on India’s final showdown with China. Sawhney incisively captures the tragedy of Indian military planning by noting that these strategists do not have a sense of history or the future. Completely turning the process of war appreciation on its head, these Indian strategists work backward by setting the premise that the Indian military will beset the Chinese or the Pakistani military in any future armed conflict. They then build how this miracle will be achieved. Sawhney quotes here a brainstorming session by former Air Chief Marshal Dhanoa where it was said that war between India and China will be intense but limited in time and space, will be fought in the physical domains of air and land only, and will take place as force-on-force engagement. In this context, the Indian strategic commanders have absolutely no clue how mission tables of the AI-controlled, autonomous weapon systems with the Internet of Military Things (IoMT) backbone may be responded to or at least be considered doctrinally as a viable factor.

Thus, in the alternate — but quite realistic and plausible — universe of Sawhney, much like the Romance of Three Kingdoms, PLA will move suddenly and hit hard across all combat zones. Its cyberwar will bring civilian life to a standstill, achieving delays and disruption to the Indian Air Force (IAF). China will activate malware viruses in military supply chains and autonomous weapon systems, as well as snap communications among various headquarters.

Sawhney’s book is a must-read, not only for Indian but Pakistani military strategists, because it shows how the classical concept of cognitive superiority is being increasingly reduced to technology and being redefined. It is now a realm where technology and artificial intelligence hold a powerful sway, wielding their influence over the very thoughts and decisions of adversaries. It is a contactless hyperspace where psychological operations and disinformation reign, where cyberattacks seek to disrupt and manipulate the flow of information, and where the ultimate goal is to gain a cognitive advantage over the enemy. The mind is the battlefield, and the weapons are those that can swiftly process vast amounts of data, identify patterns, and exploit vulnerabilities in the enemy’s systems. With the ability to generate and disseminate false information, AI can sow confusion and uncertainty among the enemy ranks, eroding their ability to communicate and make informed decisions. In this cognitive domain, the lines between reality and illusion are blurred, and the power of technology and AI to shape perception and influence the mind is absolute.
Pravin Sawhney almost appears to argue that Indian strategists who should have been composing a new epic — a technologically savvy modern Mahabharata — are instead busy penning a tragedy of equal proportions.

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