Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western nations that support Kyiv have a tendency to discuss the conflict in black-and-white terms with little consideration for nations that stand between the West and Moscow. Support for Ukraine is framed by US leadership as a question of safeguarding a rules-based world order that is being challenged by rogue authoritarians.
However, this Manichean story is often disregarded in Arab nations. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations mostly see the situation in Ukraine as a complex European dispute that does not call for Arab nations to oppose Vladimir Putin’s administration.
Arab politicians do not want to weaken ties with Moscow because of this crisis, despite the fact that no Arab country has openly backed Russia’s invasion, occupation, and annexation of Ukrainian territory.
Arab politicians do not think their nations should weaken ties with Moscow because of this crisis, despite the fact that no Arab country has openly backed Russia’s invasion, occupation, and annexation of Ukrainian territory. As a result, although the GCC countries have mainly backed UNGA resolutions denouncing Russia’s actions in Ukraine, none of them have joined Western powers in putting sanctions or other restrictive measures against Moscow in place.
Some observers predict that the Saudis would resist Western pressure to side with Moscow as the conflict in Ukraine approaches another year. The kingdom is using this conflict to convey a message to the US that Saudi Arabia is not Washington’s vassal state and that preserving relative neutrality promotes Saudi interests.
Saudis have made clear that their objectives have been centered on preserving solid ties with their primary security partner, the US; their top economic partner, China; and their important partner in OPEC+, Russia.
According to Gerald Feierstein, a former US ambassador to Yemen, the Saudis have emphasized in recent years that they want to avoid being involved in what is known as “great power rivalry” in the US. The Saudis have made it plain that their objectives have been centered on preserving solid ties with their primary security partner, the US; their top economic partner, China; and their important partner in OPEC+, Russia.
Since Russia sent soldiers into neighboring Ukraine, Riyadh has continued to cooperate with Russia. In fact, just as the West was sanctioning these Russian energy titans at the outset of the conflict, Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holding Co bought at least $500 million in Gazprom, Rosneft, and Lukoil. More recently, on October 5, the OPEC+ cartel headed by Saudi Arabia and Russia revealed its intentions to lower oil output.
Saudi Arabia professed that its financial and commercial interests, as well as market stability, were the only factors considered in making a choice to not openly condemn the Russian actions in Ukrain.
Saudi Arabia claims that its financial and commercial interests, as well as market stability, were the only factors considered in making a choice. Meanwhile, officials in Washington were enraged by the revelation because they thought the OPEC+ decision would help Russia fend off US and European sanctions and thwart Western attempts to isolate Putin’s regime. There was no question that Riyadh needed friendly connections with Moscow to coordinate oil output and continue a fruitful engagement with Russia over its actions against Iran.
Saudi authorities were keen to maintain the price of oil, mostly to pay a number of domestic development projects that unified OPEC+ agreements could fund only and maintain communication channels for discussing other concerns. Even if it is based on expediency and opportunism, Saudi Arabia’s continued increasing ties with Russia will increase tensions between Riyadh and Washington. Saudi Arabia’s reputation and image in Washington have suffered, especially in the wake of the most recent event at OPEC+, as seen by the heated language from US politicians about downgrading Washington’s security partnership with Riyadh and backing for the so-called “NOPEC” legislation.
Saudi Arabia’s continued increasing ties with Russia will increase tensions between Riyadh and Washington. Saudi Arabia’s reputation and image in Washington have suffered.
It will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to retain ties with both the US and Russia as the East-West split and great power rivalry intensify. However, Riyadh has made it clear that it will continue to work toward this challenging objective, which calls for carefully managing the globe’s evolving geopolitical environment. Saudi Arabia has continued to cooperate with Russia in energy, investment, and other sectors, but as it seeks to establish itself as a helpful mediator, Saudi Arabia has exhibited varying degrees of support for Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey were crucial in helping to facilitate a prisoner exchange between Kyiv and Moscow in September, which led to the release of several Western people (including two US citizens) who had been arrested while fighting for Ukraine. This action aided Saudi Arabia in convincing the US and Europe that its position in the fight served Western interests rather than being detrimental to them.
Saudi humanitarian help is no more than a show of goodwill to alleviate the US concerns at its rage at the OPEC+ decision with Russia. Riyadh has said that it always supported peaceful conflict resolution but it refrained from overtly condemning the invasion of Ukraine.
In an attempt to strengthen Western perceptions of Riyadh’s neutrality in the crisis, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) promised to provide $400 million in non-lethal help to the war-torn nation. It is difficult to consider the Saudi humanitarian help as anything more than a show of goodwill when US rage at the OPEC+ decision started to surface. Although Riyadh has said that it always supported peaceful conflict resolution, it refrained from overtly condemning the invasion of Ukraine. Now, Ukraine does welcome the assistance announcement, but it is difficult to separate it from the animosity around the oil cut decision.
There are currently no indications that the fighting in Ukraine will end soon. The worldwide repercussions are alarming, particularly considering the threats to food security and the potential use of nuclear weapons in the battle.
Sidrah Zaman, Researcher at the University of Siena, Italy.
Though international and domestic politics are very unpredictable especially in such a web of issues that are currently pertianing in the Middle East and European region. One can derive from the highly impactful actions being taken by the parties involved and generalise the results that might unfold with the passage of development in such an arena.
Overall a great insight over the issue and an educated foresight keeping in view the alignment of contemporary friends and foes in the ME and EU region especially considering which side the US is.
The Ukrainian leadership has been able to fight the Russians and inflict on them devastating & catastrophic strategic losses on the battlefield. With the capture of Kherson the Ukrainians dealt the Russians biggest blow and setback as this was the first greatest strategic loss for Putin and the Russian military. The battle of Bakhmut is the second greatest defeat of the Russian army and at this it does not matter (strategically) to keep defending Bakhmut by the Ukrainians as they had been able to inflict massive casualties on the Wagner militia and the Russian armed forces. These groups can take over the remainder of the city, but the Ukrainians have strategically won this battle too. The Ukrainians have killed tens of thousands of Russian invaders around the city of Bakhmut, which is not strategically as important for the Ukrainians to keep defending at this time.
Within next several weeks, once the wet ground gets dry and with Spring it becomes more solid, the Ukrainians will be able to wage a massive counterattack involving and utilizing the newly delivered western tanks such as Challenger and Leopard 2 tanks and Bradley, Stryker, AMX-10 and Marder infantry fighting vehicles. These battle tanks and vehicles have much more capabilities and superior firepower, high tech options vs. the Russian equipment. If Ukraine will have enough number of the tanks and fighting vehicles, they should be able to start a massive counterattack relatively soon and liberate more of its occupied territories across Donbass, Luhansk and at a later stages Crimea as well.
Right now, the only strategy wanted war criminal Putin utilizes against Ukraine is to keep inflicting massive civilian casualties, terror and fear, destroying Ukrainian civil infrastructure and keep attacking these civilian targets to inflict more terror and leave the Ukrainians without electricity or water supply. It feels like Putin is utilizing the usual Russian military playbook he used in Georgia, Chechnya, Crimea and Syria: win the war by spilling more civilian blood, inflict more civilian terror and keep committing more war crimes to further inflict more fear and terror.
Hopefully the NATO members, the US especially will be able to throw in more weaponry, especially the F-16 fighter jets, hopefully higher range MGM-140 ATACMS rockets, counter rocket C-RAM weapons systems to better fight the Iranian drones and more for air defenses to counter the Iranian drones and ballistic missiles. The advanced Western fighter jets will be a vital tool to win this war, without these fighters the we are looking into a more prolonged war, that might last few more years. The F-16 fighter jets can provide important offensive capabilities and support the ground force efforts.
If Ukraine gets all the weaponry and equipment it needs, the Ukrainian armed forces should be able to clear Donbass and Lugansk within this year, Crimea most likely will also be de-occupied sometime in 2024. However, with the Russian defeat the Western powers should force the Russian Federation to de-occupy and leave all occupied territories of Moldova, Georgian regions of Abkhazia and Samachablo (so called South Ossetia) and Nagorno-Karabakh. Ukraine will be victorious and the Russian imperialism will once again be defeated. With the Ukrainian victory the world will forever destroy Russia’s imperialistic ambitions, Russian nationalism and this will save future generations from future wars and peace will definitely follow.