In the first 100 days in office, Donald J. Trump has shaken the global order, something that the U.S.A. itself had created from the ashes of WW2. His “America First” or “Make America Great Again” mantra has led the U.S.A. to reshape its engagement in the key multilateral institutions, such as the UN, WHO, WTO, and Paris Agreement. The quest for revisiting relations with Russia, imposing reciprocal tariffs on different states, and potential disagreement over the working mechanism of decades old transatlantic treaty with Europe have global effects.

The Tariff war, the main point of discussion, is being utilized as a key tool to re-exert American influence in the world politics

The Tariff war, the main point of discussion, is being utilized as a key tool to re-exert American influence in the world politics. From the perspective of politics of international economic relations, protectionism, tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and bullionism, showcased the re-emergence of centuries-old mercantilist approach in the liberal world order where self-interest of a nation and zero-sum game is the criteria to judge the success of foreign policy.

In this domain, China has rejected the claims of negotiations with Trump. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun, “I want to reiterate that China and the United States are not conducting consultations or negotiations on tariff issue“. This shows that China is ready to absorb the shock and seeking alternative pathways to tackle the issue of ‘liberation day tariffs’. Chinese population is four times that of the U.S. 100 million or more in China are associated with the manufacturing industry, contributing over 30% of the total global outputs. This is something where Xi policy reflects public interests. In this regard, China is exerting its “Charm Offensive” in Southeast Asia. Xi has recently wrapped up his April visits to Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam. His message was clear. China offers partnership and stability. In contrast, what the U.S. does is unilateral bullying, protectionism, and hegemonic assertions, things very detrimental for the Asian states.

Charm offensive, as presented by Joshua Kurlantsick, involves systematic use of soft power tools to improve the global image of China. In other words, it is the non-aggressive and non-coercive approach to gain influence, particularly in the developing regions, i.e., Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Xi’s recent visits, followed by bilateral statements, shows the commitments for multilateralism and mutual trade agreements among Asian neighbors. There are different parameters and instruments of China’s charm offensive. However, there exist some loopholes in the proper implementations that need attention.

Its main purpose is to go beyond government-to-government engagement and incorporate the local community of different states to strengthen the relationship and exert its soft image

China uses different methods to exert its charm offensive. The most important tool in this regard is the effective use of public diplomacy. Its main purpose is to go beyond government-to-government engagement and incorporate the local community of different states to strengthen the relationship and exert its soft image. The mode of projection in this regard, as characterized by Nicholas J. Cull, is cultural diplomacy (through Confucius institutions worldwide), exchange diplomacy (via scholarships and student exchange programs), international broadcasting (e.g., CGNT, films, and dramas), and analyzing the foreign public opinions and key positions on different issues.

China is not just a nation-state, but a civilizational one with its long history, governance models different than those of the West, and unique values, such as Confucianism, harmony, and meritocracy. Based on this, China has always offered itself as a wise elder, not an aggressor. In other words, as said by Martin Jacques, it has criticized the U.S.-led neo-liberal economic model. The Southeast Asian nations also share the common civilizational identity with China, in one way or the other.

Huntington’s argument in Clash of Civilizations about China being the  core state of Confucius civilization is reflected in “Asian Family” project of regional engagement of Chinese policy makers. Apart from that, Robert Cox’s framework of analysis, norms and institutional settings, such as BRI and AIIB, provides a holistic picture to explain China’s support for regionalism and multipolar world order, something that Southeast Asian states have always advocated.

China has emerged as a reliable regional partner in the domain of non-traditional security

Moreover, China has used social identity theory in its foreign policy. By framing itself as a part of Asian cultural identity, it has positioned itself as a fellow developing state with a non-aggressive tendency. Its emphasis on shared colonial history and western imposition has helped it to constitute ASEAN as an “in-group” community, and U.S. as an “out-group”. Following Tang Yang’s Confucius cosmology (all under the same heaven), China has emerged as a reliable regional partner in the domain of non-traditional security. For instance, post-COVID era has witnessed China’s deep-rooted cooperation with Southeast Asia in the domain of climate change, pandemic management, disaster relief, and development.

Another tool of China’s charm offensive is its effective use of strategic narrative that has three types: systematic, identity, and issue based. The systemic narrative of win-win situation, cooperation for the shared future, identity narrative of China being a regional stabilizer, BRI as a developmental project in terms of addressing governance issues, and no debt trap viewpoint has been effectively operationalized by China to increase its influence in the region.

China’s emphasis on narrative building and public diplomacy, as said by Shogo Suzuki, is overstated, overoptimistic, self-serving. There exist some potential issues. Although recent changes forecast a shift in the strategic thinking in the Southeast Asian nations, there are still some potential areas of disagreement.

Vietnam’s trade deficit with China exceeds $ 80 Billion Dollars. In contrast, its exports to U.S. surpasses $120 Billion dollars

For instance, Vietnam has historically been against the Chinese dominance in the region, particularly after the Sino-Vietnamese war of 1979. Vietnam also contests China’s claims over Spratly and Paracel Islands. Moreover, Vietnam’s trade deficit with China exceeds $ 80 Billion Dollars. In contrast, its exports to U.S. surpasses $120 Billion dollars. Given that, it is unlikely that Vietnamese government will make a regional alliance against U.S. tariffs.

Malaysia’s relations with China are also problematic. China’s claims on Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Malaysia particularly near Luconia Shoals, exerted by military drills, patrolling, and bullying of the staff involved in the drilling of oil and gas is seen negatively in Malaysia. Moreover, Malaysia is seeking to diversify its export market instead of relying on China. However, the recent survey revealed that 77% of Malaysians hold positive view about China, something very satisfactory as compared to merely 28% in 2022. In that sense, cooperation can be advanced further but sovereignty issues are the hindrance.

Lastly, Cambodian government enjoys cordial relations with China but the public perception is not favorable. Influx of Chinese nationals have increased the crime rate in Cambodia. In addition to that, China accounts for more than 34 % of the total Cambodian external dept. Ecological concerns over multibillion Melonk river project, trade deficit, sovereignty issues over Ream naval base, and negative public sentiments have raised severe concerns over China’s cordial engagement with Cambodia. Concerns over BRI is in addition to that. But, these are not being commented due to the mix public perception and the social media deception.

Trump is not reviving a Monroe doctrine or isolationism. Instead, he simply wants to reshuffle the focus from multilateral engagement towards bilateral deals and bargaining

Given the changing socio-political and economic landscape, it is the right time to revisit the trade relations with the U.S. As Trump has offered a time for negotiating a deal regarding tariff, it would be a wise decision for the actors to settle down the areas of disagreement by mutual talks and discussions and by creating a win-win situation for all the parties involved. As said by Mathew Duss, from Center for International Policy, Trump is not reviving a Monroe doctrine or isolationism. Instead, he simply wants to reshuffle the focus from multilateral engagement towards bilateral deals and bargaining. It is the test of the resilience and the foreign policy choices for the developing states to negotiate and bargain for their national interests to maintain status quo.

Moreover, the shift provides a “strain element” in the smooth functioning of the international system, leading states to rethink about multilateralism, diversification of the trade exports, and seeking new markets to reduce their dependence on the U.S. However, China’s charm offensive will not be enough to tackle the issue. It should address the asymmetric trade, maritime security in the South China Sea, and its industrial overcapacity. The State of Southeast Asia Survey 2025 reveals the China’s “Achilles’s heel“. If China wants an effective “Ghosting Trump” strategy, it must address these concerns of its neighbors.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.