The traditional concept of nuclear deterrence, which is based on mutual vulnerability, is weakening due to the rapid advancement of strategic non-nuclear weapons (missile defense systems, cyber tools, AI, and quantum technology). Today, land-based nuclear weapons are increasingly vulnerable to an adversary’s ballistic missile systems, cyber tools, and quantum technology.

Emerging technologies weaken traditional nuclear deterrence, elevating sea-based SSBNs as an assured leg of the triad.

These emerging technologies pose serious threats to land-based nuclear weapons. To cope with it, nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), a sea-based deterrent, are becoming the assured leg of a nuclear triad. In this context, India is building a robust SSBN fleet as a strategic response to achieve a nuclear triad. This SSBN fleet demonstrates that India’s strategic ambitions reach beyond South Asia.

Presently, New Delhi operates two SSBNs: INS Arihant and INS Arighaat, and the third INS Aridhaman (S4) is expected to join the fleet later this year.  The Indian SSBNs are dedicated to maintaining deterrence not only in South Asia but far beyond. The Arihant class, followed by Arighaat and Aridhaman, can carry nuclear-armed missiles such as K-4 and K-15 that have a target range of 3500km and 750 km, respectively.

This submarine race by India is aimed at countering not only Pakistan but China as well. India is developing K-5 missiles, a variant of the K series missile, which have a target range of around 6000km. It will be upgraded into K-6 missiles with a range of 8000km, with a speed of 7.5 Mach. It is widely speculated that the upcoming advanced variants of K series missiles might hit at a range of 10000km, as India has already developed Intercontinental Ballistic missiles such as Agni-V and Agni VI, which can hit the target up to the range of 12000km. This is evident that India’s strategic doctrine is not limited to South Asia but extends to Europe, America, and the entire Asia-Pacific region.

These SSBNs can carry a Multiple Independent Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) payload, which means that a single missile can strike multiple targets with separate warheads.  The upcoming K-5 and K-6 are deployed on India’s nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) like the Arihant class or the upcoming S5, which can be fired from far off in the ocean. They can not only target Pakistan and China, but also Europe, Russia, Africa, and some parts of the United States, including the Pacific region.

India’s SSBN fleet carries missiles with intercontinental range, targeting regions beyond South Asia, including Europe and the US.

The Indian SLBMs, with intercontinental reach, reflect Indian global strategic design. The SSBNs provide an assured and credible platform for launching nuclear strikes, due to their stealth nature and prolonged ability to remain at sea. The integration of its third nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), INS Aridhaman (S4), demonstrates that India is swiftly catching up with the world’s advanced and superior naval powers, such as the United States (US), China, and Russia.

It is understood that the India SSBMs program is designed not solely to project nuclear deterrence in the Indian Ocean region and beyond. It reflects India’s global strategic ambitions to become a global nuclear power, enabling it to exert nuclear deterrence at intercontinental ranges. Therefore, the development of K-6 missiles with a range of 8,000km and with an estimated speed of 7.5 Mach, underlines that India is trying to match its naval prowess with the global powers like the US and China.

Ironically, this intercontinental reach of the Indian SLBMs has been supported by the championed of non-proliferation, such as the US, France, and Russia by underpinning defense ties with India. Moreover, despite India’s free access to sensitive propulsion and guidance technology, the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), to which India is signatory, is continuously supporting India rather than restricting its actions.

Because of this unconditional and irresponsible support to India by the great powers, India’s quest to become part of the global intercontinental missiles countries is not abated and continues to acquire advanced missile technologies like hypersonic technologies and MIRVs. Under these circumstances, it is incumbent on the international community to take note of this aspect of India’s sea-based deterrence and recalibrate relationships with New Delhi accordingly.

In contrast, Pakistan is always subjected to unfounded allegations by the US government for developing intercontinental ballistic missiles. Pakistan’s missile program is exclusively India-centric, with the longest-range missile, Shaheen-III of having a 2750km range. This mistreatment of the US encourages India’s global strategic objectives on one hand and affects Pakistan’s action as a responsible nuclear power state on the other hand.

India’s advanced missile tech, like K-6 with MIRV, signals global nuclear ambitions, challenging regional stability.

The implications of these submarines for regional countries, like Pakistan and China, are manifold. Considering the recent India-Pakistan conflict and previous standoff, Pakistan is already grappling with India’s irrational, irresponsible, and jingoistic behavior. For its defense, Pakistan is likely to pursue anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities to deter India’s naval misadventure in the future. Furthermore, India’s advancement may induce Pakistan to enhance its strategic non-nuclear weapons capabilities, such as missile defense systems, cyber tools, AI, quantum tech, and ASW, as well as improve its sea-based deterrence to counter the perceived threat from India’s SSBNs.

Lastly, India’s SSBN program contradicts its professed policy of No-First Use (NFU). The deployment of nuclear weapons at sea demonstrates that India could potentially initiate a first nuclear attack. The independent command and control system of SSBNs increases the risk of preemptive nuclear attack, particularly during a crisis, by misjudging the adversary’s action.

Consequently, the existence of these SSBNs undermines escalation control and crisis management by producing new variables that could result in miscalculation. In a nutshell, India’s SSBN program displays its obvious disregard for regional deterrence thinking and demonstrates its ambitions to become a global nuclear power. The deployment of sophisticated weapons such as SLBMs with MIRVs of long range, on SSBNs, clearly shows that India intends to continue an aggressive posture not only in South Asia but across the world.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.