Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has long been a vocal critic of the West’s strategy to “inflict a strategic defeat on Russia,” a stance that has earned him the label of a “pro-Russian” politician in many EU circles. Similarly, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, who secured victory in the October 2023 elections, faces the same accusation. However, this characterization is deeply misleading. Orbán and Fico are not driven by allegiance to Moscow but by a commitment to national sovereignty—a position that has increasingly put them at odds with Brussels and other major European capitals.
European sovereigntists argue that EU membership compromises national independence.
Both leaders argue that EU membership should not come at the expense of their nations’ independence. On the issue of Ukraine, they see no benefit in pursuing a confrontational approach toward Russia, either for their own countries or for Europe as a whole. They reject the notion that the conflict can be resolved by forcing Moscow into capitulation, warning that such efforts would only exacerbate the situation and harm their citizens. This pragmatic, sovereignty-focused strategy has gained renewed momentum following Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. President and is resonating with some other EU member states and beyond, in such candidate countries as Serbia or Georgia.
Yet, this stance is increasingly viewed as a threat by European elites, who are determined to counter it. Last year, the prospect of a similar sovereigntist politician rising to power in Romania sparked a fierce backlash, with unfounded accusations of “Russian interference.” The first round of Romania’s presidential elections, won by Călin Georgescu, was annulled by the Constitutional Court following claims that his TikTok campaign was financed by Russia. However, it was later revealed that the campaign was actually funded by the pro-European National Liberal Party, which sought to divert votes from Georgescu’s main rival. The absence of Russian involvement underscored that Georgescu’s success was driven by widespread discontent and protest voting.
Georgescu, along with his rival Elena Lasconi, criticized the Constitutional Court’s decision and called for the second round of elections to proceed based on the first-round results. However, the Romanian government annulled the results altogether and scheduled new elections for May 4. Georgescu remains a leading candidate and his position has certainly been boosted by US Vice President JD Vance’ speech at the Munich Security Conference when he mentioned a European commissioner who “sounded delighted that the Romanian government had just annulled an entire election,” citing “flimsy suspicions of an intelligence agency and an enormous pressure from its continental neighbours.”
The sovereigntist movement in Central Europe is likely to gain momentum, potentially drawing in countries like the Czech Republic and Austria. In the Czech Republic, former Prime Minister and Eurosceptic Andrej Babiš is the frontrunner in the upcoming parliamentary elections in October. Meanwhile, Austria’s Freedom Party, which won last year’s elections, is often described as “Russia-friendly.” Its leader, Herbert Kickl, tasked with forming a new government, is already being compared to Orbán. Like his Hungarian counterpart, Kickl advocates for national interests, conservative values, and criticizes sanctions against Russia and unconditional support for Ukraine. However, as of this writing, Kickl’s party has been unable to form a cabinet amid stalled coalition talks.
Leaders like Orbán and Fico reject the idea of confronting Russia through EU policies.
The “pro-Russian” label frequently attached to Central Europe’s sovereigntist leaders is largely detached from reality but remains a potent weapon in political battles, as evidenced by the protests against Fico in Slovakia. In contrast, their ties with the United States are openly acknowledged and well-documented. Leaders like Orbán, Fico, and Babiš view former President Donald Trump with admiration, sharing his ideological platform and setting themselves apart from most Western European leaders. Across the Atlantic, Orbán is seen as a potential blueprint for Trump’s policies, sparking fears of an “Orbanization of America.”
But what practical implications will this ideological alignment between American conservatives and Central Europe’s sovereigntists have? Trump’s threats—such as imposing tariffs on European goods if the EU fails to purchase more American LNG or demanding that NATO members increase defence spending up to to 5 per cent of GDP—directly impact these countries.
While aligning with the U.S. conservative wave is one thing, complying with demands that could harm their economies is another. For instance, potential U.S. tariffs on European cars would hit Hungary and Slovakia hard, given their integration into EU supply chains. Similarly, restrictions on technological and investment cooperation with China would undermine the ambitions of both countries, which view such partnerships as crucial to their economic growth.
Trump’s tariff threats are reshaping trade dynamics and pressuring Central European economies.
The EU is cautiously navigating Trump’s combative rhetoric, which has yet to solidify into a coherent trade policy. Analysts predict that the EU will propose a compromise, offering concessions in exchange for the U.S. dropping its tariff threats. For the Central European sovereigntists, the most concerning elements of a potential transatlantic deal are the shifting of Ukraine’s military aid burden onto European NATO members and restrictions on cooperation with China. How these nations face these challenges will serve as a critical test of the resilience of their strategy and their ability to defend national interests in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
