Late last week, President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use US missiles against targets in Russia. This was reported by The New York Times, creating a tsunami of questions around the world, including: Isn’t this a step towards a sharp escalation of the war and the involvement of other countries, that is a step towards World War III? Details play an important role in this issue. So, let’s analyze them step by step.

What Does This Authorization Cover? Is The Entire Territory Of Russia Accessible For strikes?

No, it is only a permission to use US missiles against targets in the Kursk region, where the Russian and North Korean troops are trying to push the Ukrainian military out of fortified positions.

The specter of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House and pledged cutoffs of US aid to Ukraine belatedly prodded Biden towards decisive action, said Samuael Ramani.

Ukraine’s use of ATACMs in Kursk will provide immediate benefits for its increasingly bleak frontline position. Russia’s deployment of 10,000 North Korean troops to Kursk Oblast is widely believed to be an asymmetric retaliation for Ukraine receiving permission to use NATO-class weaponry against Russian targets, stated Ramani.

Thus, the US decision to deploy long-range missiles looks like an asymmetrical response to the appearance of North Korean military personnel in the Kursk region of Russia. At the same time, this weapon is not capable of radically changing the course of events in the war – its main task is to carry out preventive strikes on places of equipment accumulation and airfields in the Kursk region where soldiers from North Korea are involved. This raises the question of the use of these US missiles in other Russian territories adjacent to Ukraine. According to the statements, Washington has not granted Kyiv such permission, so there is no question of a turning point in the course of the war.

Also read: People Or Territories: The Question That Ukraine Is Facing

This thesis is supported by The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) which reported that allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russia will not have the desired effect. After all, if the West allows Ukraine to use its long-range weapons only against military facilities in the Kursk region, many more positions of the Russian army on Russian territory will remain out of range. Therefore, the restrictions should be lifted for all Russian territories. Washington is not yet comfortable with such statements.

Moreover, “It remains unclear whether the US will allow Ukraine to use ATACMS against Russian targets that lie further away from the frontlines. While Russia has pre-emptively moved 90 per cent of the aircraft that it uses in glide bomb strikes away from the range of ATACMs, 17 airbases and at least 250 major military objects lie within their radius”.

What Is Washington’s Main Goal?

This decision of the United States is a hint to Russia not to involve its allies in the war, thus forming an alliance, the expansion of which to include other countries or even more soldiers from North Korea could significantly limit the West’s space for geopolitical maneuvering in terms of further ending the war through diplomatic means. In this case, the West will either be forced to withdraw from the war in Ukraine or enter it with its military forces.

Also read: The Moral Imperative Of The Collective West And The Ukraine War

Such a decision by the United States is more of a signal to Russia than a military threat in the literal sense of the word. Another detail worth mentioning here is that the information about this US authorization came not through official channels, but through The New York Times, which has long been used by the White House to leak information about decisions that are only under consideration. And if the response of the opponents – Russia – is appropriate, that is, without further involvement of North Korea in the conflict, the scope of the decision will be minimized or the authorization itself will be postponed. Therefore, it is worth waiting for Russia’s response on further involvement of North Korean soldiers.

Very likely, given the form of this statement, its limited context, and the goal stated through the media, it is unlikely to be considered a reason for further escalation of the war. This is probably Washington’s move in a broader game in which Russia is an actor.

Why Did This Statement Appear Now?

The time before the UN General Assembly or G20 group meetings is very convenient for such statements. It should be noted that the statement came a day before the start of the G20 summit in Brazil. The summit, where Erdogan is proposing a plan to freeze the war, and the summit participants do not hide fears that Russia may involve significantly more North Korean soldiers –  up to 100 thousand – in the war in Ukraine.

At the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was present at the summit, and Ukrainian President Zelensky did not participate in the event, even as an invited party, although he attended the gathering in 2022.

And it is also very important to note the fact that the participants at the summit had considerable difficulty in preparing the final communiqué. The search for consensus was complicated by both the preceding massive strike on Ukraine’s infrastructure and Washington’s announcement via The New York Times of its decision to grant Ukraine permission to strike Russian territory with US ATACMS missiles. This is very much like a session of a geopolitical game, with mutual moves by the players to form a more favorable position  for some kind of negotiations, not a military one.