The connection between the United States and the Middle East is one of the most significant and vital in global politics. This has been brought about by years of war and peace, international relations, trade and globalization, and rivalry between communism and the West. While following the US presidential election, one can suggest that several characteristics of the foreign policy regarding the Middle East could be enter a a new phase – indeed, relatively unconventional and challenging.

As the Middle East is familiar with volatility, the US presidential election in 2024 will put the Middle East in a position of change with a new president of the United States. The combination of domestic American politics and more frequent crises in the Middle East can redefine the interaction of the US with the region for many years to come.

For most of the 20th and 21st centuries, the United States’ relations with the Middle Eastern countries have been greatly influenced by power and security priorities and indeed the main goals were energy sources, terrorism and geostrategic cooperation. There must be the Cold War competition that saw the US and the Soviet Union frequently fighting for domination in the region. The US nurtured its strategic partnership with countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel. It also conducted went for military actions like as the Gulf War of 1991 and invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s.

Both Obama and Trump wanted to pull back from the endless wars in the Middle East, but they approached this goal in vastly different ways.

However, the new phase after 9/11 has seen an accelerated encroachment of the American military might in the Middle East. This presence, in the name of the global war on terror, created continued conflicts and civil wars within nations, especially Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. However, US assistance towards Israel and the hostile attitude toward Iran have been consistently most important indicators in the region.

In recent years, nevertheless, there has been an observable change. Both Obama and Trump wanted to pull back from the endless wars in the Middle East, but they approached this goal in vastly different ways. When focusing on foreign politics, Obama represented diplomacy – Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA, 2015), while Trump acted independently – withdrawal from JCPOA while focusing on relations with the Gulf States and Israel. These decisions outlined for the US a highly polarized future discourse as to how it should continue to navigate the region.

Meanwhile, Middle Eastern politics remain volatile as campaign is in full swing for the US presidential election 2024.

However, another question is critical, and it concerns the Palestine-Israel conflict, which has become more intense in recent years. The Abrahamic Accords signed during the Trump presidency were seen as a historic moment in the Arab-Israel relations, but little has been achieved when it comes to the Palestine-Israel conflict.

At the same time, Iran continues to pose a threat with its nuclear program. Given that the JCPOA is virtually dead now and the Biden administration has attempted to resurrect the negotiations but with limited success. At the same time, Iran’s proxies such as Hezbollah and Houthis in countries such as in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen are gaining more ground. Unfavorable Iran-US relations and the economic crisis in Iran have made Tehran desperate, as it continues supporting its proxies for dominance in the region, given the conflict with Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states.

Another area requiring attention is the US-Saudi Arabia relation. Traditionally, cooperation between the two countries was based on oil and security issues. However, over the recent past, their relationship has been souring over issues such as human rights and the Yemeni war. The assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul consulate in 2018 evoked strong global response and a call for Washington to rethink relationship with Riyadh.

Despite the prospects of President Biden initially assuming a more hostile approach to Saudi Arabia, there was a shift in US diplomacy back to Saudi Arabia due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine – a development which led to several challenges in the global energy market.

The Abrahamic Accords signed during the Trump presidency were seen as a historic moment in the Arab-Israel relations, but little has been achieved when it comes to the Palestine-Israel conflict.

Meanwhile, Washington’s politics continues to shape the US foreign policy in the Middle East to this date on grounds of insecurity. As the 2024 election come into focus, its approach to the region is again on the cusp of change. The result of upcoming election may be seen as either a continuation of a decline in the trademark aggressive disposition of US foreign policy in the region or escalation of warlike policies.

As for the Democratic Party, a fresh movement is promoting isolationism overseas. The liberal wing of the party has most recently opposed interventions in foreign countries and supported diplomacy, human rights and the climate change issue. It also wants the West to reconsider the friendly partnership with apparent tyrannies of the Middle East like Saudi Arabia and Egypt and turn the focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict again.

Taking a closer look at the structural changes, the most prominent phenomenon in the last few years has been the changing character of the world order in which China and Russia have emerged as key players in the Middle East. For the two countries, economic interests and military cooperation in the region have escalated their activities, thereby countering the monopoly of the US.

China has also developed economic relations with states like Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. At the same time, Russia entered the Syrian civil conflict as an ally of the Assad government and increased its military base on the Mediterranean. This scenario invites China and Russia to influence the Middle East and complicates US strategy.

Hence, the new multipolarity means that any future US administration must take reality of increasing foreign presence in the region into account, along with the US interests.

With the US presidential election round the corner, the fate of Middle East is on the line, as the region continues experiencing conflicts, economic insecurity and flip-flopping relationships. However, how the US accomplishes addressing these issues will depend on the election results. Whether the next president pursues a more diplomatic or interventionist strategy, one thing is clear: A new age in the relationship between the U.S. and the Middle East is on the horizon, which will define this important part of the world for the next several decades.