With the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union ended, and ushered in a new era that came to be known as globalization. The world began to deepen its interdependence and appeared as one village. Thomas Friedman’s book ‘The World is Flat’ aptly described how every country was now connected with the other in multiple ways that were mutually beneficial. The United Nations began to weave together a global normative framework by organizing mega conferences on important subjects from rights of children and women to environmental protection and human settlements, followed by five-yearly and ten-yearly reviews.

Come 9/11, the day transnational terrorism struck the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York, the world woke up to a perverted side of globalization. The inter-connectedness had made it easy for the violent, extremist non-state actors to advance their destructive agenda across nations. As the world struggled to fight terrorism, the US first invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and then Iraq in 2003 – the two wars that consumed the US firepower for nearly two decades. A process of regime changes in the Middle East, dubbed as the ‘Arab Spring’, was launched around 2011, which soon turned disastrous, often described as the ‘Arab Winter’.

In the third decade of the 21st century, the world appears deeply divided, miles away from the spirit of globalization that had enveloped it during the 1990s.

Meanwhile, multiple powers emerged on the global scene, particularly China, whose meteoric rise made it the manufacturing hub of the world. The US attention pivoted to Asia, essentially to push back a rising China. Sensing the loss of its unipolar moment, the United States chose to revise its national security strategy in December 2017, whereby the major power competition with China and Russia emerged as its top national security concern. Thus started the unravelling of globalization.

The US has since devised an Indo-Pacific strategy, and co-opted India, Japan, Australia and some of the East Asian nations to contain the further rise of China. India became a partner of choice for the US, which started investing in India’s economic and military prowess by signing a series of agreements, including transfer of technologies. The objective was to prepare India as a counter weight to China. A quadrilateral coordination group, called QUAD, was formed by the US, Japan, Australia and India to cooperate in the maritime space of Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. Separately, the US formed an alliance called AUKUS with the United Kingdom and Australia, ostensibly to promote a free, open, secure, and stable Indo-Pacific region, and in turn to push back China.

For its part, China flexed its economic muscle and reached out to over 120 countries through its mega connectivity project, called Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China also established six economic corridors, two of which provided it an access to the Indian Ocean, one through Pakistan and the other through Myanmar. South China Sea, through which much of China’s trade passes, and Taiwan strait, where tensions have ratcheted up lately, have emerged as conflict-prone hot spots. China is also sensitive to West’s outreach to Taiwan, which it considers as a part of the mainland China in terms of its One-China policy. Some East Asian countries, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, have recently been agitating over territorial issues with China.

The Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia, are undergoing profound strategic, economic, and social transformation.

While the US-China competition is intensifying, several other theaters of global contestation have emerged. Russia, which had invaded Crimea and occupied it in 2014, has followed up by a second invasion of Ukraine in 2022, occupying its eastern part. The West’s support to Ukraine and economic sanctions on Russia, and the latter’s concerns about NATO coming to its borders, have created conditions for a devastating war in Europe. The Russia-Ukraine war has caused the energy and commodity prices to rise sharply. The war has also set a disturbing precedent of a bigger country invading its relatively smaller neighbor and occupying a part of it.

Another theater of global contestation is the Middle East, where Israel, provoked by Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, has unleashed untold brutalities on the helpless Palestinians living in Gaza. The US-led West continues to support Israel even though gross human rights violations are being committed by Israel against the people of Palestine. This has exposed the West for its double standards on universal human rights. Meanwhile, the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia, are undergoing profound strategic, economic, and social transformation. These states are reducing their options on fossil fuel, diversifying their strategic options, and are increasingly looking towards Asia for economic and investment relations.

Most nations are resorting to regionalism in order to minimize their risks arising from the West’s policy of de-risking their economies from China’s economic outreach.

Given the global tensions and the attendant uncertainties, most countries are no longer relying on multilateralism under the UN framework, which has become a victim of unilateralism exercised by major powers with little regard for any mandate from the UN Security Council. Armed conflicts have erupted in various parts of the world. According to Stockholm based think tank (SIPRI), the number of states experiencing armed conflict has risen to 56. Consequently, multi-alignments are now being formed by states to protect their interests. Of particular significance is BRICS Plus, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, which have been joined recently by Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Ethiopia.

The previously accepted global norms are also eroding. For instance, free international trade, which was achieved after decades of hard work, is under threat of tariff wars and trade protectionism. Migration, which was viewed as infusion of fresh blood into societies, is now being perceived as an economic or security threat. The forces of narrow nationalism are raising their head, giving rise to xenophobia and Islamophobia. Tech-wars are now afoot, seeking to deny each other the advantages of emerging technologies. All these trends have accentuated the unravelling of globalization.

In the third decade of the 21st century, the world appears deeply divided, miles away from the spirit of globalization that had enveloped it during the 1990s. A question then arises as to what would emerge in place of the rule-based international order that was created after the end of the Second World War? It is evident that the world is passing through a transition period of great uncertainty and tensions. The contours of the new world order have not yet emerged. Given that several new powers are asserting their presence on the world stage, a new balance of power will have to be evolved, which would then set new rules of the international order.

To choose one major power over the other is not a choice that countries like Pakistan can afford.

Meanwhile, most nations are resorting to regionalism in order to minimize their risks arising from the West’s policy of de-risking their economies from China’s economic outreach. South Asia is the only exception, being the least integrated region even though it, too, gets profoundly impacted by the US-China competition. There is a serious concern that the world might get divided into camps, reminiscent of the camp politics of the Cold War period. Although the leadership of both the US and China has assured the world that their competition would not veer towards conflict, the atmosphere of uncertainty continues to polarize the international community.

For most countries, geoeconomic disruptions are becoming a matter of growing concern. Chief amongst them is the politicized market access and technological bifurcation between the data bases hosted by the US and China. Another matter of grave concern is disruption of global supply chains. The West is keen to re-wire these supply chains away from China towards other emerging economies of the world, particularly India and South East Asian nations. Accelerated automation of industries is also a major challenge for populous countries like Pakistan, which has millions of untrained young people. The currency competition has also begun to challenge the dominance of US dollar though it will not be easy to replace the USD as the lynchpin of global economy. Another major challenge that the world will face is the constant build-up of arms and arms races by all major powers. The US military spending is larger than that of the next eight countries combined. China and India are playing catch up. Many of the disarmament agreements between the US and Russia are losing effectiveness.

Like any other country, Pakistan, too, is profoundly impacted by the unravelling of globalization, particularly the impact of competition between the US and China. For Pakistan, China has been a steady friend throughout the seven decades of their bilateral relationship. China has invested in Pakistan even when the country was in the throes of terrorism. China is also an important voice that supports Pakistan’s stance on international forums. The United States, too, has remained engaged with Pakistan for sustained periods, and is country’s large trading partner. Students of Pakistan are attracted to the US universities, the physicians to US healthcare industry, and IT experts to the Silicon Valley of the US. To choose one major power over the other is not a choice that countries like Pakistan can afford. The country is, thus, well advised to set its own political and economic house in order, encourage self-reliance, and then predicate its foreign relations with all major powers on its own national interests, including with the US and China. This balancing act may not be easy, given the increasing rivalry between the two, but this is the best option available to the country.