New Delhi’s diplomatic ties with Ankara seem to have suffered a notable drop in reaction to claims that the Turkish government has placed limits on defense goods and arms exports to India. A top government official revealed the decision at a recent meeting of the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee. Turkiye’s actions coincides with India’s decision to rescind a major shipbuilding contract given to a Turkish shipyard.

Mustafa Murat Seker, an official in the defense procurement department, has confirmed that the Turkish government stopped [key] arms exports to India. He told legislators that India was among the top five arms importers in the world, a sizable market valued around $100 billion. “But given our political context and our close ties to Pakistan, our Ministry of Foreign Affairs offers negative remarks on the transfer of any defense-related goods to India. As so, we do not grant any licenses to our companies in this respect.”

India cancelled a lucrative shipbuilding contract with Anadolu Shipyard, a TAIS consortium member, in April.

Approved defense exports in Turkiye are under the management of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), and the military. Turkiye’s relentless support to Pakistan in its struggle with India, especially with respect to the Kashmir issue, is mostly responsible for the strained relations between the two nations.

India cancelled a lucrative shipbuilding contract with Anadolu Shipyard, a TAIS consortium member, in April. Under technological and engineering support from Anadolu, the $2 billion deal comprised building five Fleet Support Ships (FSS) for at Hindustan Shipyard. However, India decided to have the vessels built locally instead of involving Turkish interests. New Delhi said its policy of improving indigenous shipbuilding capacity was the reason behind the termination. Still, most people agree that India’s concerns over Turkiye’s close ties to Pakistan had a big influence.

The latest events between India and Turkiye point to a more general trend in strategic partnership and rivalry. Pakistan has worked recently to strengthen its diplomatic ties with non-Arab Muslim-majority countries such as Turkiye and Azerbaijan. India has, therefore, deliberately interacted with their enemies, including Greece, Cyprus, and Armenia. The Turkey-Greece and Azerbaijan-Armenia relations highlight this geopolitical chess game.

Islamabad seems to have decided to provide JF-17 aircraft to Azerbaijan produced jointly by China.

On the other hand, military cooperation between Pakistan and Turkiye has seen a significant increase in recent years. The two countries came to an understanding in 2016 whereby Turkiye might refit Pakistani submarines. The first one was completed in September 2023. In 2018, Turkiye signed another deal agreeing to produce four corvettes for Pakistan. Furthermore, there are rumors of possible cooperation in drone production.

Furthermore, Pakistan is helping Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia. Islamabad seems to have decided to provide JF-17 aircraft to Azerbaijan produced jointly by China. Apart from improving Azerbaijan’s air capacity, this deal marks the increase of defense cooperation between the two countries.

The basis of Azerbaijan-Pakistan ties is similar interests and common strategic goals. Among the few countries actively supporting Azerbaijan’s military actions against Armenian forces during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was Pakistan.

Meanwhile, India has responded by developing closer ties to Armenia. It is trying to offset Pakistan’s increasing sway by coming closer to Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus. India and Armenia have agreed to provide the Armenian army Pinaka missile launchers, Swathi radar systems, and artillery ammunition. Though not all of these military supplies were sent before the latest Karabakh conflict, the move reflected New Delhi’s political posture.

India has responded by developing closer ties to Armenia.

Furthermore, Greece has been taking part in military exercises in India since 2021. However, India has also conducted joint military drills with Turkiye.

The Greek prime minister was Invited to give opening comments at the Raisina Dialogue 2024, the main meeting on world issues held in India. He said India’s engagement with Greece also implies economic collaboration since the Indian GMR Group is co-developing an airport in his country. These ties, which mirror a growing coalition, are undermining Turkiye’s regional aspirations.

At the same time, India is also improving ties with Cyprus, a country caught in a protracted territorial conflict with Turkiye.

Notwithstanding all the difficulties India faces, it is nevertheless committed to lowering its dependence on foreign defense imports and supporting its own manufacturers. This strategy fits the cancellation of the shipbuilding contract with Turkiye. Currently, the Hindustan Shipyard Limited (HSL) is expected to deliver five fleet support ships for the Indian Navy mid-2027 in collaboration with the Larsen & Toubro. This project not only improves India’s maritime capacity but also boosts shipbuilding industry and fosters technical innovation.

Broader geopolitical events and regional conflicts have resulted in notable shift in India’s diplomatic and military contacts with Turkiye. The abovementioned developments in ties between the two countries highlight complex relationships when it comes to alliances and rivalries in the region. The geopolitical scene in South Asia and the Middle East is expected to remain dynamic and changing, as India is focusing on Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus, with Turkiye enhancing cooperation with Pakistan. No doubt, India’s ongoing phantom rivalry with Pakistan highlights the unstable equilibrium of strategic goals and power in the region as shown by their respective alliances.