The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency has sparked a sense of uncertainty about the future of global governance and the international system. Trump’s unconventional foreign policy and ‘America First’ approach have added to the already existing concerns about the reliability of the US commitments to international agreements and alliances. His return signals a continuation of the contentious policies that defined his first term.

Now, with an even stronger Republican majority in both the House of Representatives and Senate, the Trump 2.0 administration is poised to reshape the US policy on a global scale. Given his track record, it is expected that the Trump 2.0 presidency will lean towards a more assertive and transactional foreign policy. In fact, within the first month of Trump’s presidency, his decisions and statements have already sent shockwaves through global political circles.

Despite the uncertainty, two things are certain: the US will prioritize competition with China and will continue to work with India. Either it strengthens India more or not, but will compel India to militarily counterbalance China’s regional influence. This expected US policy is set to significantly influence the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. Pakistan, in particular, finds itself navigating this shifting landscape.

The US is increasingly concerned about China’s growing economic power, technological advancements, military modernization, and influence in multilateral institutions 

There are visible signs that the US under Trump 2.0 will prioritize competition with China. A priority that has been central to his foreign policy since his first term and continues to dominate his agenda in the second term. Given the outcome of his first four years, there is little room for optimism about the next four years. Therefore, it is expected that the ongoing geopolitical, geostrategic, and geo-economic competition with China will continue under Trump 2.0.

The new administration, like its predecessor, sees China as a ‘strategic competitor’ and will continue efforts to counterbalance China, particularly in economic, military, technological, and ideological sphere. The US is increasingly concerned about China’s growing economic power, technological advancements, military modernization, and influence in multilateral institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. These developments are pushing the US to adopt a more assertive stance in the Asia-Pacific and globally to preserve its dominance across multiple domains.

Modi became the fourth world leader to visit Donald Trump in the White House since the start of his second term

In South Asia, India will continue to be the primary focus, therefore, strengthening its role as a regional policeman under the Indo-Pacific strategy. This is because, like the US, India views China as a geopolitical and military competitor. This shared perspective creates a natural alignment of interests between the two nations. This is reflected in multiple developments. First and foremost is the appointment of individuals to key positions who have previously favored stronger ties with India and share hawkish views towards China.

Prominent among them are Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Kash Patel, and the Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, S. Paul Kapur. Their appointments to these key positions are likely to benefit India. Their pro-India stance will help shape US foreign policy, fostering deeper cooperation in areas like defense, trade, and regional security. Secondly, India’s priority was highlighted by the diplomatic gestures and early engagements between the two countries.

At Trump’s inauguration, India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, attended as Prime Minister Modi’s envoy. He also delivered a letter from Modi to Trump. This symbolic act reflected the administration’s commitment to strengthen India-US ties. Additionally, the early communication between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi, via a phone call, emphasized the importance of their relationship. Thirdly, Modi’s visit to the US further emphasized the strengthening of India-US ties and is closely linked to the previous diplomatic engagements. Modi became the fourth world leader to visit Donald Trump in the White House since the start of his second term.

As the US and China compete for regional influence, Pakistan faces the complex task of balancing its strategic interests while safeguarding its sovereignty, economic stability, and regional security

It is expected that US policy towards China and India will impact Pakistan directly or indirectly in several key ways. It is important to highlight that the US-China competition is not only a defining feature of the global geopolitical landscape; it also has profound implications for South Asia. The competition has cast a shadow over the region, affecting its security dynamics, economic integration, and regional cooperation. As the US and China compete for regional influence, Pakistan faces the complex task of balancing its strategic interests while safeguarding its sovereignty, economic stability, and regional security. Historically, Pakistan has maintained strong ties with the US, including military cooperation and assistance in getting loans from international financial institutions. However, this relationship has witnessed alternating periods of cooperation and phases of tension.

Even as a major non-NATO ally, Pakistan has experienced various kinds of sanctions and politico-diplomatic pressures. Despite these ups and downs, the US has remained Pakistan’s largest export destination and has continued to support in areas such as counterterrorism efforts, military training, and economic development. However, Washington often views its engagement with Pakistan through the lens of its relations with India and China, rather than recognizing Pakistan’s independent strategic significance. This, along with a lack of shared long-term priorities has prevented the two countries from building a substantial and enduring partnership.

The historically transactional nature of the US-Pakistan relations is now further reinforced under President Trump whose leadership prioritizes immediate gains over long-term partnerships

As the US deepens its strategic partnership with India, any major engagement at this time with Pakistan appears to be unlikely without a fundamental shift in Washington’s regional policies. The historically transactional nature of the US-Pakistan relations is now further reinforced under President Trump whose leadership prioritizes immediate gains over long-term partnerships. Moreover, the absence of a truly strategic relationship between Islamabad and Washington has led to an ad-hoc, issue-based engagement rather than a comprehensive and long-term partnership. Despite this, Pakistan’s Foreign Office expressed optimism that its ties with the US would grow under the new Trump administration.

Islamabad has consistently sought to be treated independently by Washington, preferring not to be viewed solely through the lens of its ties with India or China

This optimistic outlook recognizes that diplomacy thrives on engagement even in uncertain times. This optimistic perspective aligns with the broader necessity for both nations to reconcile their differences on regional strategic stability identify mutual interests, and move beyond an inconsistent relationship toward a more structured and stable partnership. In this context, Islamabad has consistently sought to be treated independently by Washington, preferring not to be viewed solely through the lens of its ties with India or China. Recognizing Pakistan’s unique strategic significance will be crucial in shaping a more balanced and constructive engagement between the two nations under the Trump 2.0 administration.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.