With the news of a new alternative regional grouping to be initiated in South Asia making rounds, one is tempted to think if it is the moment of truth, the truth that the long-sought dream of regional integration in South Asia has breathed its last breath or it is the dawn of a new tomorrow, a beginning of a renewed hope.

SAARC remains moribund, with intra-regional trade below 5%, making South Asia one of the least integrated regions globally.

According to a new insider report by a leading news outlet, The Express Tribune, it has been claimed that China and Pakistan are collaborating on a new regional integration project in a renewed effort to “potentially replace the now-defunct South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).” Sources have also revealed that the talks regarding this new regional scheme have reached an “advanced stage,” which means that a new sprout of regionalism is expected on the horizon.

While this development may come as a surprise to some, it will be an understatement to say that it was not in the cards.  However, the timing of this critical development is important to note. It comes at a time, when India seems to be struggling to make its voice heard at the global level and more specifically, when India is still recovering from a major diplomatic blowback at the hands of Pakistan following the 4-day Indo-Pakistan war.

Pakistan’s military and diplomatic comeback in the aftermath of failed operation Sindoor and the global receptiveness of its narrative as a responsible regional actor committed in fighting against terrorism has led Indian campaign of isolating Pakistan regionally and globally to fall flat on its head.

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), established in 1985, is the pioneering platform aimed at inclusive, formal regionalism in South Asia. It is the oldest formal institution established for carrying out the agenda of South Asian regional integration. From a regional integration perspective, SAARC has long been moribund, despite consistent efforts to resuscitate it.

Despite SAARC’s enormous potential of facilitating regional integration and regional economic development, it remains stagnated, not been able to materialize even half of it. The aspect of regional trade continues to remain a poor-performer. Although a proper legalized agreement, South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), exists to promote inter-regional trade and drive broader regional economic development, the inter-regional trade stands below 5% and the region remains one of the least integrated regions in the world.

India’s regional hegemony and rivalry with Pakistan have stalled South Asian integration and alienated smaller neighbors.

There has been a web of issues that have contained its functionality over the years. One of the most cited reason is the enduring India-Pakistan rivalry. The political tensions between Pakistan and India have continued to stall any progress made on achieving regional integration. However, another critically important reason has been India’s quest of regional hegemony.

India, being the larger member both physically and politico-economically, aspires to nail Indian hegemony in South Asia and such aspirations coupled with its domineering regional posture have seriously dented its credibility as a regional leader. This is now evident if we look at the South Asian map and observe how the smaller regional member states are slipping away from India’s grip and consequently aligning differently as oppose to India’s vision of regional engagement.

Bangladesh in the post-Hasina Wajid context has warmed relations with Pakistan. Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan more recently have become close with China. This is a reflection of India’s failed ‘Neighborhood first’ policy.

India’s extra-regional focus has been another associated cause of stagnating regionalism in South Asia. India through its ‘Look East Policy’ (renamed as Act East Policy) seeks to expand economic linkages with India and adjacent regions such as Southeast Asia and East Asia also expanding influence in the regions of the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean.

China-Pakistan talks on a new regional framework indicate a potential replacement for the defunct SAARC.

India’s pursuit of sub-regionalism via the platforms of the Kunming Initiative, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Cooperation, the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) are some of the key integration initiatives supporting its look east foreign policy outlook.

As is commonly known India was skeptical about the SAARC’s proposal when it was initially floated. It considered the proposal as a coherent effort by smaller South Asian neighbors aimed at cornering it or as a regional ploy to gang up against India. Same fears have resurfaced again as it seems. Despite a Chinese official’s stated position clearly dismissing the proposition, India deems the emerging China-Bangladesh-Pakistan cooperation as a replacement mechanism for SAARC aimed at its regional isolation.

On the contrary, it has been India bent upon pursuing aggressive isolation policy targeting Pakistan. India’s isolation policy targeting Pakistan led it to boycott the 2016 SAARC Summit in Pakistan, citing Pakistan’s involvement in the Pathankot and Uri incidents. It was successful in pressuring other SAARC members to follow suit. However, India intended to create the same pressurized regional environment for Pakistan following the Pahalgam incident. But to the contrary, India failed to extract a similar consensus against Pakistan as none of the regional members agreed to echo India’s stance on the incident. The international community, too, refused to empathize with India.

Given the fallout of Operation Sindoor and the consequent disappointment of India’s narrative at the regional and international levels, the situation for reverting to regionalism seems to be lost.  As India presently suffers the brunt of its diplomatic blowback, the chances of the Indian side opting for genuine regional engagement to address urgent regional issues such as terrorism, climate change, water scarcity, poverty alleviation, etc. seem slim to none. India’s continuous stubbornness poses a grave challenge for the progress of inclusive regionalism in South Asia, which is the only sustainable solution to fixing overwhelming regional woes.

South Asia’s future depends on inclusive regionalism that transcends India’s stubborn isolationist policies.

The regionalism potential cannot be and should not be held hostage to India’s whims and wishes. The role of reviving SAARC naturally falls on India. India, being the largest member of the bloc, should rise to the occasion and save the region from falling into the path of regional rivalries or exclusive regional blocs. At the same time, new regional integration schemes should be welcomed in case there is no change observed in India’s attitude,e as the region deserves to move forward with or without India.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.