Security landscape of South Asia has seen significant contributions of artful negotiations behind the curtains to deescalate the tensions between Pakistan and India. The appointment of current Director General Inter-Services-Intelligence (ISI) as National Security Advisor, reflects a crucial change in Islamabad’s strategic approach to make the intricate relationship smooth with India.
The recent appointment shows Pakistan’s strategic intent to engage India through covert diplomacy similar to Janjua-Doval talks of 2015 to 2018
This progress appears as a preconceived and resultant strategy by Pakistan after the Pahalgam attack in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) while demanding an international probe on this issue. The recent appointment shows Pakistan’s strategic intent to engage India through covert diplomacy similar to Janjua-Doval talks of 2015 to 2018 and these backdoor negotiations can introduce new avenues that will bring de-escalation in the case of India and Pakistan.
To comprehend the resurgence of quiet diplomacy, it is crucial to reconceptualize the Janjua-Doval talks.Lieutenant General Retired Nasser Khan Janjua as NSA of Pakistan engaged with India’s NSA Ajit Doval in a discreet way of security centric communication channel to cool down the hot tensions between neighbors from 2015 to 2018. Particularly the Bangkok episode was crucial due to its focus on issues such as terrorism, Kashmir, and LOC violations.Irrespective of the political disturbance, these consistent talks created a productive diplomatic environment to prevent these issues from becoming crises. The foundations of this JD model lie in the mutual cooperation and trust between two parties as it was reflected in these talks by operating beyond the lens of media and public.
The Pahalgam attack reignited India’s hostility towards Pakistan by making it responsible for the killings of military persons and civilians. Pakistan swiftly denied these accusations and demanded an international level probe to reveal the truth that was blurring behind India’s deliberate rhetoric against Pakistan. Also, the statements from both sides intensified the situation and quickly froze the communication channels by Persona Non Grata. Previous crises of Uri and Pulwama specifically falls in this category of escalation that brought two nuclear armed states at the brink of war.
Without any doubts, intelligence premier keeps a strategic advantage of having deep understanding of operational and security frameworks of India than the civilian NSAs
The recent elevation as NSA marks not only the reshuffling of governance cards but also to give an intentional strategic message to India. Without any doubts, intelligence premier keeps a strategic advantage of having deep understanding of operational and security frameworks of India than the civilian NSAs.
This move by Pakistan is a dire need of this intense situation to match the capabilities of experienced Ajit Doval who also comes from the Indian Intelligence community. Pakistan intends to engage India through high level security centric backdoor communication, by focusing on intelligence cooperation, settlement of crisis, and regional security threats rather than political behavior.
This match of intelligence heads will be effective in dealing the situation due to the informed echoes of ground realities rather than ideological and public pressure. Mr. Janjua was quite impressive in dealing with Doval and now this engagement can provide an opportunity to restart the sessions of peacebuilding talks between Pakistan and India. Irrespective of the fact that there is a desperate hostility mechanism between these two nuclear states but the internal and external pressures create a path of secret diplomacy. After the success in election, Modi focused more on economic stability to project India as a global power.
Pakistan is currently facing issues of economic crisis, political instability, and ethnosectarian tensions that create internal chaos which can be managed only after mitigating the regional security threats.Pakistan has strategic ties with China while India takes it as a threat in the region while also these states share regional concerns in the form of Afghanistan’s conundrum and transnational terrorism.
Backdoor diplomacy with flexible features insulated from the political influence can act as a decisive step to enhance confidence building measures
Moreover, bilateral trade remains frozen, diplomatic relations are disrupted, and military tensions continue across the Line of Control. In this landscape, conventional diplomatic channels are not worthy enough to bear this burden while making these avenues ineffective. For this environment, backdoor diplomacy with flexible features insulated from the political influence can act as a decisive step to enhance confidence building measures.
Although,backdoor diplomacy remains effective in words but faces serious practical hurdles in implementation. India’s political framework is highly polarized and any act of engagement with Pakistan can bring internal chaos specifically after the terror act. Judicial activeness,civil military tensions, and perception of public about India are the factors that restrict the option of reconciliation for Pakistan. Additionally, without any practical approach on crucial issues of Kashmir and terrorism, these covert diplomatic moves will only bringa symbol to remember the cause rather than the resuItant act.
The active engagement of media will severely affect the Indo-Pak covert diplomacy for element of sensationalism in news to get views. So, the success of these Janjua-Doval 2.0 relies on features of successful covert engagement that are privacy,professionalism and realism of those involved in it.
This shift shows Pakistan’s willingness to prefer these covert engagements over public diplomacy and official representation
The elevation of DG ISI as NSA in the result of Pahalgam attack may be seen as a silent act or governance act but it also reflects a major shift in regional diplomatic enclave of South Asia.Making comparison with Janjua Doval talks, this shift shows Pakistan’s willingness to prefer these covert engagements over public diplomacy and official representation. Although,the challenges are prominent but this process comes as a most suitable and rare opportunity to devise strategies for crisis management, de-escalation mechanism and a peaceful region.In this arena of South Asia, sometimes powerful actions by states are formally taken behind the doors.
Disclaimer:Â The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.