“War does not solve problems. Rather it amplifies them and produces wounds in the histories of people that become difficult to heal”. (Pope Leo)

Just days after taking office in January 2025, President Donald Trump has been threatening Iran to drop its nuclear plans and settle the issue through talks. The US and Iran quickly started negotiating, with five rounds successfully conducted. Both the leaders of the states have been hopeful about the negotiations, but the question of Iran being permitted to seek its nuclear program even for civilian purposes or not still lingered. Meanwhile, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on 13th June 2025, three days before the sixth round of negotiations between Iran and the US. Israel justified the action because such negotiations would only give the Iranian regime sufficient time to construct a crude bomb.

Israel justified the action because such negotiations would only give the Iranian regime sufficient time to construct a crude bomb.

In a tit-for-tat retaliation, Iran struck back at Israel with a drone and missile barrage. Iran deployed its Shahab series of ballistic missiles and, for the first time, tested its Sejjil-2 (hypersonic missile) against Israel. Initially, the US denied any role in the Israeli attack on Iran. Subsequently, President Donald Trump clearly said, “Iran was given many chances to make a deal. I instructed them firmly to ‘just do it,’ but they didn’t. I informed them that it would be worse than they could think of.

The US makes the best, most lethal weapons, Israel has plenty of them, and others are on the way. Iran now needs to act to preserve what is remaining of its empire.” From that point onwards, the situation between Iran and the US worsened. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally requested direct assistance from the US military to fully eliminate the threat of Iranian nuclear enrichment.

The Trump government first chose a diplomatic course of action, providing two weeks to Iran for resolving the matter peacefully, while continuously pressurizing them militarily by relocating strategic bombers and aircraft, surrounding Iran in the region. Late night on 22 June 2025, the United States launched its first full-scale coordinated assault on Iranian soil, giving it the title of ‘Operation Midnight Hammer’. The targets of the operation were three key nuclear centers in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Iran retains all the rights to defend its security interests and people.

The US deployed around 7 B-2 Spirit bombers and more than 125 aircraft, which comprise fighter escorts, tankers, and surveillance planes. The US, for the first time in history, employed its GBU-57 bunker buster bombs targeting Iran’s deep underground nuclear facilities. Furthermore, Tomahawk cruise missiles were also fired at Isfahan by the United States. Around 14 GBU Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) were dropped in Iran. Weighing 30,000 pounds, these bunker bombs could penetrate up to 60.96 m inside concrete underground infrastructures.

The US has labeled it as a joint and coordinated effort of its triad forces with B-2 bombers undertaking 18-hour flights with in-flight refueling. Following the attack, President Donald Trump, in announcing the total destruction and annihilation of Iran’s nuclear facilities, declared, “Any retaliation by Iran against the United States of America will be met with force far greater than what was witnessed tonight.” The Iranian administration signalled that the US has crossed its red line.

Abbas Aragchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, commented, “The international community should never forget that it was the United States that, in the middle of an effort to make a diplomatic solution, betrayed diplomacy by backing the genocidal Israeli regime’s illegal war of aggression against the people of Iran. Not satisfied with such melian actions alone, the US itself has also chosen a risky military operation and aggression against the Iranians now.

Any military move against Iran and its axis of resistance will meet the same destiny that the US experienced during the invasion of Iraq.

In so doing, the US administration bears full and sole responsibility for the repercussions of its acts, including the right to self-defense under the principles of the United Nations Charter. According to the UN Charter and its terms, Iran retains all the rights to defend its security interests and people.”

The Israelis, right from the beginning, have attempted to overthrow the theocratic government of Iran, bringing Raza Pahlavi (grandson of the Shah of Iran) to the forefront of Iranian politics. Immediately after the attack, US President Trump, on his social media, stated, “It’s not politically correct to say ‘regime change’, but if the present Iranian regime can’t MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a regime change??? MIGA”.

This point clearly explains the US-Israel partnership to overthrow the Khamenei regime by forging social unrest and public uprising in Iran. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has officially invited the Iranian people to resist the Khamenei regime and struggle for their peaceful life.

Now, the question arising here is how Iran is going to react. What are some of the options available to Iran? First and most important is that Iran and its proxies may attack the vital military bases and installations of the US in the Middle East. This is why the US has already dispatched its carrier strike groups to the North Arabian Sea. Another significant event would be the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which provides a quarter of the world’s maritime oil trade.

This would stall world economic commerce, causing significant susceptibilities not only to the US but to the entire international environment. Further, Iran may obtain support from its international allies, i.e., China, Russia, and North Korea. Russia can provide some military assistance, such as air defense systems, clandestinely to Iran without directly challenging the US or Israel.

Military aid for China is not an option. Iran would at most receive some raw materials and technological assistance from the Chinese side. Iran can also receive assistance not only from its axis of resistance but also from the other violent non-state actors active in the region, including Al-Qaeda, ISIS, etc. Since Al-Qaeda’s leaders have indicated, “We have two types of enemies: the near enemy (Shiites) and the far enemy (the US). And so first, we will fight the far enemy.”

The direct military conflict between the US and Iran will only turn out to be a ruinous step and a failure of the United Nations.

These organizations can jump on board to protect Iran, which will further aggravate the security situation in the Middle East. Furthermore, following the US operation Midnight Hammer, the Houthis have terminated the armistice with the US, announcing it as a betrayal and violation of the provisions of the deal. This will lead to the reinstatement of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea on major US and Israeli shipments.

To conclude, the direct military conflict between the US and Iran will only turn out to be a ruinous step and a failure of the United Nations to uphold peace and avert conflicts. As the League of Nations failed and the world then witnessed WWII, if the war happens, the chance of a third world war will be more prominent. Additionally, President Trump will lose his credibility and support base since he, instead of ending wars, is waging them. Lastly, any military move against Iran and its axis of resistance will meet the same destiny that the US experienced during the invasion of Iraq (2003) and the war on terror against Afghanistan.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.