The traditional political elites of the country are observing the emergence of a new player in the democratic arena with suspicion, disbelief, and envy. A cult-like populist figure, nurtured by the military to counter mainstream political parties and disrupt the democratic transition from 2008 to 2018, has come of age and is now vying to regain power with unmatched charisma and a massive following. This transformation has baffled and confused his political rivals, who have united with their former adversaries in the establishment to counter his moves. For the establishment, one of its own creations has gone rogue once again.

The political landscape in Pakistan is being reshaped by a populist figure, challenging traditional political elites.

The Charter of Democracy, signed between two mainstream parties in 2006, facilitated a decade-long democratic transition from 2008 to 2018. Despite continuous interruptions and conspiracies orchestrated through the judiciary and a sponsored opposition, the military establishment was forced to take a back seat. This transition was disrupted in 2018 through judicial manipulation and the introduction of a “trojan horse” by the establishment. A hybrid regime was established, wreaking havoc on the economy and bringing it perilously close to default.

The experiment with Imran Khan was hastily abandoned by the establishment before it could implode on its own. The establishment quickly coerced the mainstream democratic parties into becoming junior partners in a military-dominated hybrid regime, threatening them with another decade of Khan’s rule if they refused. This abrupt and chaotic dismissal revitalized the PTI, compelling the establishment to rig elections significantly to keep them out of power.

While anti-establishment sentiments have previously benefited other mainstream political parties, it is now PTI’s turn to enhance its appeal among the masses by opposing the military establishment. This stance has particularly eroded the military’s support among the middle and upper classes, which it had shared with PTI just a couple of years ago. Despite poor governance, mismanagement, and a plummeting economy during PTI’s three and a half years in power, Khan’s unwavering political support remains intact. He was getting unpopular among the masses and the indecent haste of toppling his hybrid rule has not gone well with his supporters, who perceive him as some sort of messiah

The Charter of Democracy facilitated a decade-long transition but was disrupted by judicial manipulation and the rise of a hybrid regime.

The PPP and PML-N have lost significant political ground that they had gained through decades of struggle against military dictatorships. Overnight, the roles have reversed: collaborators have become democrats, and democrats have become collaborators. Despite performing better in governance than their predecessors and stabilizing a nosediving economy, they have struggled to regain their support base.

Despite major differences and interests among the three mainstream parties, the only way to challenge the establishment is to agree on a new Charter of Democracy and Economy. PTI’s refusal to adapt and its inability to initiate a three-pronged strategy—engaging in dialogue with other political parties, providing constructive opposition in parliament, and organizing peaceful public protests—are leading it into a dead end.

Imran Khan is unwilling to negotiate with other political parties and is instead focused on mending his strained ties with military leadership to regain power with their assistance. Both of their major protests on May 9 and November 24 were less about mass mobilization and more about instigating a coup within the military to install like-minded generals. The party’s reliance on Khan’s charisma, coupled with a motley crew of second-tier leadership, is unlikely to yield positive results.

A new Charter of Democracy and Economy is essential for mainstream parties to effectively challenge the military establishment’s influence.

The PDM government must pursue a policy of political dialogue despite PTI’s obstinacy and inflexibility. It should resist the temptation to dismiss the KP provincial government or banning the party and maintain its focus on the escalating militancy in both KP and Balochistan, seeking political solutions to longstanding issues.