The fighting in northern Syria has reached a critical stage, and the city of Aleppo, one of the main bases of the Syrian government and the Axis of Resistance, is on the verge of collapse. This development results from a series of regional and international factors that have weakened the position of the Axis of Resistance in Syria. I am trying to provide a detailed analysis of these developments.

Iran’s map reading and the beginning of changes:

In the final weeks of the Lebanon-Israeli war, Iranian intelligence analysis indicated that Turkey intended to play a pivotal role in the developments in Syria. Ankara was trying to create buffer zones to confront Kurdish groups by expanding its influence in northern Syria. This plan was designed to create a “Turkish sphere of influence” and pave the way for a broader military presence.

Realizing this, Iran tried to dissuade Turkey from this path through diplomatic measures and political pressure. Ali Larijani’s visit to Damascus and Iran’s green light to Hezbollah for a ceasefire were part of these measures. However, Turkey’s stubbornness and Erdogan’s emphasis on long-term goals prevented these efforts from achieving the desired results.

The situation on the ground: The imminent fall of Aleppo:

The city of Aleppo, once Syria’s economic and strategic heart, has almost completely fallen. The forces defending Syria, especially the foreign proxy forces of Iran, i.e., Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun, were unable to effectively resist the advance of armed groups due to a lack of equipment and reduced operational capacity.

According to field reports:

1. The defense lines of Aleppo have almost been destroyed, and the Syrian army is retreating to Al-Safira.
2. Armed groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, with direct support from Turkey, have made extensive advances in the Aleppo countryside.
3. The plan to defend the city has become impossible due to the lack of coordination of the army command and the weak equipment of the resistant forces.

Reasons for changing the equations in the last 72 hours:

The rapid rotation of the field equations is the result of a set of factors:

1. Israeli airstrikes: Israel’s continuous attacks on Iranian advisory bases and Syrian military infrastructure have made it challenging to transfer new equipment and forces to the battlefield and have weakened the Resistance in Syria.
2. Reduction in Russian air support: Russia’s involvement in the Ukrainian war has caused Moscow to minimize its ability to provide air support to the Syrian government, which has reduced the Syrian army’s maneuverability.
3. Lack of coherent command in the Syrian army: The Syrian army, especially in Aleppo, faces structural weaknesses and a lack of command coherence, which has led to the rapid collapse of defense lines.
4. Turkey’s logistical support for armed groups: Turkey has not only provided financial and weapons support to groups opposing the Syrian government but has also facilitated their advance by sending military advisors to the field.

Scenarios Ahead:

The possible fall of Aleppo and the expansion of the influence of armed groups to other areas have put the Syrian government and the resistance axis in a critical situation. In such a situation, the following scenarios are conceivable:

1. Creating an alliance between the Syrian government and Kurdish forces: The Syrian government can encourage the Kurdish forces to cooperate in confronting terrorists by making proposals such as political participation and sharing resources. This alliance can bring new forces to the field.
2. Strengthening defense lines in vital areas: Although the resistance axis does not have enough time for rapid reconstruction, it must focus on vital areas such as Damascus and Homs to prevent the terrorists from advancing.
3. Strengthening coordination between Iran and Russia: The resistance axis should bring Moscow’s air and ground support back to the battlefield through negotiations and pressure on Russia.

Regional consequences of changing equations

If the Resistance Axis fails to take control of the situation, the following consequences will be inevitable:

1. Turkey will expand its influence deep into northern Syria and ultimately limit the presence of the Kurds by creating a buffer zone.
2. Israel will try to change the balance of power in favor of the opponents of the Resistance Axis by continuing its airstrikes.

Conclusion:

Recent developments in northern Syria are the product of intense competition between regional and international actors. This crisis indicates the need to review the strategies of the Resistance Axis and make rapid and strategic decisions to prevent Syria’s complete collapse. The future of the Resistance will depend on the speed and accuracy of these decisions.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.