Since the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a surprise outbreak in Syria’s north western Idlib province, worrying reports have emerged suggesting that HTS’s ranks include members of the Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda associates.

HTS’s ranks reportedly include Afghan Taliban members and Al-Qaeda associates, indicating deep ideological and operational ties.

Sources from the Global Jihadist Network claim that these foreign fighters received military training at several Al-Qaeda facilities in Afghanistan.

In terms of anonymity, a source within the Taliban confirmed the participation of the Afghan Taliban in the ongoing offensive in Syria. However, the source claims that Afghan fighters have joined HTS in a personal capacity and do not receive official support from Kabul.

The relationship between the Afghan Taliban and HTS is not new. In August 2021, following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, HTS members in Idlib celebrated their victory by waving the Taliban’s white flags. The source also revealed that these Afghan fighters are associated with Haqqani’s network.

The Haqqani’s Network and Al-Qaeda have a long-standing relationship based on shared ideological goals, including the establishment of an Islamic caliphate and the fight against foreign forces, particularly the U.S.

The Haqqani’s Network has provided logistical support, safe havens, and training camps for Al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan. They have jointly carried out high-profile attacks, including the 2011 assault on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.

With the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, their strategic ties have been further strengthened, allowing both groups to consolidate their influence in Afghanistan.

After August 15, 2021, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), operating under the Al-Qaeda umbrella, began sending fighters to Afghanistan. This initiative was facilitated by Abdul Rahim al-Afghani, a senior commander within the Afghan Taliban. It is pertinent to mention that Al Qaida, HTS, and the Afghan Taliban have a common global jihadist ideology.

Intelligence assessments from the Middle East Counterintelligence and Counterterrorism teams suggest that recent attacks against the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria by Sunni and Salafi factions were carefully orchestrated over several months.

These efforts have reportedly been supported by some Middle Eastern and Western nations, and global jihadist networks. Among the groups involved are the Haqqani’s Network, aligned with the Afghan Taliban, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Al-Qaeda Central.

A UN Security Council report recently revealed that “since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, the country has once again become a hub for terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda.The group has set up eight new training camps and five madrasas across several provinces. Al-Qaeda is also using safe houses in Herat, Farah, Helmand, and Kabul to facilitate the movement of operatives between Afghanistan and Iran”.

The Haqqani Network and Al-Qaeda continue their long-standing alliance, amplifying threats across South Asia and the Middle East.

Conversely, Islamabad has consistently maintained that the bases of groups engaged in terrorism within Pakistan are situated on Afghan territory.

Meanwhile, Kabul has continually dismissed Pakistan’s claims, including those supported by the United Nations.

However, the ongoing evolution of the situation is prompting serious concerns regarding the possible dissemination of radical ideologies to areas beyond Syria.

The geopolitical consequences for regions such as South Asia are incredibly concerning and could have far-reaching effects.

In recent years, the Middle East and South Asia have become hotbeds for extremist activities, with various terrorist organizations vying for power and influence.

Among the most concerning developments is the emergence of ideological links between the Afghan Taliban, Al-Qaeda, ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria), and HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham).

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) maintained ties with al-Qaeda and shares a global jihadist ideology.

Despite officially severing its affiliation with al-Qaeda in 2016, there are speculations that the breakaway factions from al-Qaeda, remain deeply connected to this ideology.

South Asian Muslims have notably participated in the Syrian conflict, particularly through Iran-backed groups like the Zainabiyyun Brigade, primarily comprising Pakistani Shia youth, and the Fatemiyoun Division, made up of mainly Afghan Hazara fighters. Pakistan has banned the Zainabiyyun Brigade, designating it a terrorist organization.

HTS, despite rebranding attempts, remains a significant player in global jihadist networks with territorial control and operational reach.

Simultaneously, there is mounting evidence from United Nations reports and U.S. intelligence that al-Qaeda is regrouping in Afghanistan, inviting jihadists from across the globe for training.

Pakistan has expressed credible concerns that Afghan territory is once again becoming a hub for terrorist activities, a claim that Kabul consistently denies.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham HTS, emerges as a potential security threat, particularly as it aligns with the methodologies of the broader global jihadist network.

Its ideological affinity and operational capabilities suggest it could follow in al-Qaeda’s footsteps, becoming a destabilizing force not just in the Middle East but also in South Asia and beyond.

The waving of white flags of the Afghan Taliban HTS symbolized ideological solidarity and a shared vision for the future of jihadist movements.

The escalation benefits several actors. HTS and its allied rebel groups gain leverage by demonstrating resilience and operational capability, potentially attracting more funding and recruits.

HTS, the successor to Al Nusra Front—Syria’s Al-Qaeda affiliate that once dominated the rebel forces—continues to be led by Ahmed Hussein al Shar’a (Aka Abu Muhammed Jolani), who was also at the helm of Al Nusra.

In an effort to gain international backing, the group has sought to soften its image, even removing more extreme pro-Al-Qaeda factions. However, the U.S. and most international organizations remain disbelieving, refusing to embrace these changes.

Despite a $10 million bounty on his head from the U.S., al-Jolani controls significant territory in northwest Syria and oversees millions of displaced civilians.

Al-Jolani, once an Al-Qaeda operative, now seeks to overthrow Assad and establish Islamic rule in Syria.

Reports also suggests that “Turkey is strengthens its influence in northern Syria, advancing its strategic interests against Kurdish groups and maintaining a buffer zone along its border”.

The ongoing conflicts risk regional instability, inviting extremist ideologies to thrive and destabilizing the Middle East and South Asia.

On the other hand, Iran and Russia, despite being on opposing sides, could use the renewed fighting to consolidate their roles in Syria, positioning themselves as critical players in any resolution.

Additionally, the heightened conflict fuels demand for arms and resources, benefiting those involved in smuggling and the arms trade.

The continuation of hostilities risks exacerbating regional instability, prolonging human suffering, and creating opportunities for extremist ideologies to thrive. A focus on de-escalation and political solutions is crucial to mitigate broader repercussions.

The ideological links between Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and HTS pose a severe threat to the Middle East and South Asia, with potential spillover effects reaching far beyond these regions.

As these extremist groups continue to exploit their ideological similarities, it is crucial for governments and international organizations to work together in countering their activities and preventing further destabilization.

Only through a comprehensive and coordinated approach can we hope to address the growing menace posed by these interconnected terrorist organizations.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.