Water is a source of life, a basic human need. It can play a significant role in the international system- by shifting the course of a geopolitical conflict. States, being realists, use various strategic tools to fulfill and advance their national interest. Water’s significance of being “life”, has been used over history strategically as a geopolitical tool or weapon in conflicts to achieve their military and political objectives. India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), in light of the recent Pahalgam attack, as a retaliation against Pakistan, displays India’s intention of using water as a strategic tool. India accuses Pakistan of sponsoring the militant group involved in the attack, Pakistan denied, and India does not have evidence to prove its claim. The act of treaty suspension has been declared an “act of war “ by Pakistan, as India is using water as a strategic weapon against Pakistan.

IWT, an agreement that was mediated by the World Bank, was signed in 1960 between the two hostile nations to govern the fair share of river waters that flow from India into Pakistan. India controls the eastern rivers—Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas—while Pakistan gets water from Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Pakistan gets 80% of its water – from the rivers, making the state completely dependent on them with no major substitute or alternate source. Pakistan being an agricultural state, whose agriculture is its main economic source, can take a huge blow on its agricultural sector, especially in the dry season, and due to climate change, which is already impacting the crop yield. Besides, it can also impact the country’s power generation mechanisms.

India can divert the flow and control the timing of water flowing into Pakistan, thereby manipulating Pakistan’s share of water

The point of concern is whether it is possible for India to completely stop the flow. While it is technically impossible to halt the outright flow of rivers, experts believe that the suspension of the treaty permits India to openly construct infrastructure on the western rivers to maximize their water levels and meet its needs. India can divert the flow and control the timing of water flowing into Pakistan, thereby manipulating Pakistan’s share of water.

The announcement of the treaty suspension was not unexpected; events over the past decade have demonstrated the escalation of the water conflict towards treaty abeyance and India’s intention to use it as a strategic tactic. In 2016, after the Uri attack, India started to take the conflict towards water politics, where PM Modi gave the statement, ‘Blood and water cannot flow together,’ linking water with politics and India’s national security. After the Pulwama attack in 2019, India threatened again to use western rivers for their interests.

The current suspension of the treaty points toward the Indian attempts to advance its interests by manipulating Pakistan’s water share

Indian dams in the river Jhelum have always been a point of dispute between the two states. In 2022, Pakistan took the case to arbitration, raising tension in the region. The World Bank resolved the dispute under the treaty. In 2023, for the first time, India was seeking to modify the treaty in light of climate change and the country’s growing need for water, which Pakistan clearly denied. In 2024, India reasserted its desire to amend the outdated agreement. The current suspension of the treaty points toward the Indian attempts to advance its interests by manipulating Pakistan’s water share.

India unilaterally suspending the treaty displays India’s leverage of being an upstream country. It can be India’s strategic move to bring Pakistan to re-negotiate the treaty in its best interest before resuming it or suspending it completely to advance its interests. India took the advantage of the deadly attack and utilized the leverage of being an upper stream country, to change the course of matters towards its own political and economic gain.

Stakes being high for Pakistan, it also responded with the same intensity by threatening to suspend the Simla Agreement as a self-defense measure against India. Pakistan also suspended trade, closed its airspace, and ended diplomatic ties. The Simla Agreement, governs the LoC, and thus holds immense significance for India over the Kashmir issue. These actions have raised serious concerns in the region. Regional and global powers’ interests in the region are at stake, prompting the international community and major powers to advocate for a peaceful resolution and regional stability. The US has urged a “responsible solution’ in light of India’s current geostrategic interests in Pakistan, as escalation could jeopardize its interests and diplomatic ties.

Negotiations are the only way to resolve the current escalating tension between India and Pakistan

Water can be a point of diplomacy and cooperation in the international system among states to build mutual agreement under international law. However, if water is manipulated by controlling its flow to exert pressure, it can become a weapon and tool of hybrid warfare, leading to regional tensions that may escalate into an armed conflict. Negotiations are the only way to resolve the current escalating tension between India and Pakistan. Suspending or threatening to suspend any treaty or agreement between the two hostile nations leads to further regional instability, putting the region at risk of nuclear exchange and humanitarian crisis.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia