Business communities all over the world especially exporters, importers, money exchange operators, and countries whose national reserves are in dollars, besides those who write and speak on world affairs, are anxiously awaiting June 1. It should be remembered that at this time America is facing a test in the form of increasing the total national debt limit. If the US defaults, which is still highly likely, it will deal a huge blow to global markets and the economy. Its effects will be visible only in the United States, and in the form of a crisis, it will cover the whole world. Among these, the top two negative effects will appear in the form of unemployment and inflation. Apart from this, the signs of major changes in world politics will also be noticeable that has already started happening.
America is facing a test in the form of increasing the total national debt limit. If the US defaults, which is still highly likely, it will deal a huge blow to global markets and the economy.
The United States currently owns a quarter of the world’s economy and is the world’s largest economy. If it defaults (which is more likely because two of its biggest banks have already defaulted), business people around the world who export their goods to the US will suffer a huge blow. Americans have the highest standard of living in the world. The goods used there are not only related to basic amenities but luxury items are also considered in this category. It is a basic principle of economics that higher profits in trade are in goods that fall under the category of convenience and luxury. America imports three trillion dollars worth of goods annually. America imports more than thirty billion dollars worth of goods every year. The United States is the world’s largest importer in terms of quantity and reliability. If it defaults, this trade will almost come to a standstill, and trading companies around the world will suffer. Similarly, there is a credit problem in the trading companies, which will lead to the risk of sinking.
In addition, the United States annually sends goods worth two and a half trillion dollars to other countries, which means that the share of the United States in world trade is about five and a half trillion dollars, while the total volume of world trade is about 28 trillion dollars. Now the situation becomes more clear and easy to understand that 5.5 trillion dollars of the 28 trades are related to the US alone. It accounts for about a quarter of the world’s total trade. A US default, therefore, threatens to wipe out a quarter of global trade. This will adversely affect the employment of people around the world who are connected to the US economy. The most interesting thing is that these victims will include America’s rival and biggest rival, China. The countries from which China imports the most goods are its neighboring countries, which are called ASEAN countries. The countries of the European Union are in second place, while the United States is in third place. Let us explain that the most beneficial trade for China is with the US. Last year, China imported $177 billion worth of goods from the US, while exports to the US were worth $581 billion. China’s largest export market individually is the United States. If we put the above data in front of us, then it is known that there is a difference of 400 billion dollars in mutual trade between China and the United States, in other words, China gets about 400 billion dollars annually from this trade and the same amount to the United States. There is a trade deficit. Experts believe that China and Europe will benefit the most from this situation, whose trade and economy will flourish further. Similarly, one scenario will be that China will also become the number one in world trade. In other words, China will fill America’s gap not only well but very easily and it is ready for it. It is quite possible that in the ongoing cold war for global political governance, Europe will come out of the hands of the United States and stand with China in economic or trade terms.
United States annually sends goods worth two and a half trillion dollars to other countries, which means that the share of the United States in world trade is about five and a half trillion dollars, while the total volume of world trade is about 28 trillion dollars. Now the situation becomes more clear and easy to understand that 5.5 trillion dollars of the 28 trades are related to the US alone.
It should be remembered that Europe was the first field in the Cold War between Russia and the United States. In this war, the United States was successful because the large and important countries of Europe preferred to be part of the American bloc with a clear majority, while in Eastern Europe, the weak and small countries, numbering only six, were annexed by Russia. Russia’s power and coercion contributed more to this accession than to pleasure. Now the wheel of history is turning upside down. It can go even further because China is doing the exact opposite of America. She is making other countries his counterpart, not militarily, politically, and ideologically, but only on a commercial basis. In the same way, the European countries find themselves breaking out of American influence and becoming internationally independent.
China has started giving other countries their share in regional and global politics. China has stepped up its mediation efforts on the Ukraine issue. Apart from Germany, Saudi Arabia is the country on which China has increased its dependence. Now Saudi Arabia is not only playing its role in reducing Pakistan’s political tension, but a few days ago the President of Ukraine also visited Saudi Arabia. The purpose of this visit was only to get help from Saudi Arabia to settle Ukraine’s war with Russia. China can be clearly seen behind this growing global role of Saudi Arabia. After the Saudi-Iran reconciliation due to China, Iran has also opened a trade center along the Pakistan border. Now the flag of peace and friendship is being raised on all borders except India for Pakistan. Now see what happens.
The writer is Mphil scholar and government officer in Punjab