Climate change has emerged as a major security concern for all the countries around the world. Climate change is a nontraditional security threat caused by human activity, primarily the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Before this, the world was least concerned about such nontraditional security threats and the lethality associated with them.

Pakistan has the world’s third-highest water scarcity, with each person receiving less than 1,000 cubic meters annually.

Climate change has wide-ranging negative consequences for the economy, humanity, the environment, and flora and fauna. Climate change-related risks include flooding, droughts, heat waves, tropical cyclones, excessive precipitation, and changes in rain patterns. These risks caused discernible imbalances in a variety of bio systems. Climate change has significantly disrupted the water cycle in these systems.

Water security is defined as the long-term availability of sufficient quantities of high-quality water to maintain human and ecosystem health. Water security is vital to national security. Conflicts over water access around the world, as well as competing demands for finite water resources, highlight the importance of water. Climate change poses a significant threat to water security now.

Currently, Pakistan has the world’s third-highest water scarcity and is the most affected by climate change. While there is a growing recognition that climate change may aggravate the country’s existing water shortage, Pakistan lacks a comprehensive assessment of how changing climatic conditions affect or could negatively impact its water assets, as well as an effective strategy to mitigate the consequences. Karachi is the world’s sixth most vulnerable city to water insecurity, ranking Pakistan among the top thirty-three countries under extreme water stress.

Furthermore, if current consumption trends continue, Pakistan will face an acute water shortage in the future. To address these issues, water availability and use are critical, and it is becoming increasingly clear that everyone must become ‘water conscious’ and act quickly. Pakistan’s water resources are under extreme strain due to its growing population, which is heavily reliant on agriculture to drive the country’s export earnings, employment, and GDP.

Human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, changing land uses, and deforestation contribute significantly to global warming and hydrological imbalances, accelerating the negative effects of climate change on water supply. The growing gap between water demand and availability in Pakistan is associated with a variety of factors such as population growth, rapid urbanization, and inadequate water management techniques.

To address these issues, new data, methods, and technologies must be developed that consider the economic, social, political, and environmental aspects of water resource management. It is essential to assess the risks associated with water scarcity caused by climate change.

Karachi is ranked the world’s sixth most vulnerable city to water insecurity.

Pakistan is rapidly becoming a water-scarce country, as evidenced by the depletion of fresh water supplies in major cities and a population growth rate of 1.6% each year. Each person receives less than a thousand cubic meters of water per year. The country’s limited and unsustainable water supply is a major concern, exacerbated by rising pollution and climate change.

These facts are acknowledged by every administration in Pakistan without any additional measures. The inability of governments to conserve water and manage wastewater puts further strain on already scarce water resources. Access to clean water is a big concern, with 80% of residents in large cities without it. This is especially evident in Karachi, where more than sixteen million people are affected.

Extreme heat, melting glaciers, and methane emissions have all contributed to the water crisis. Every year, rivers and seas become more flooded because of severe weather. Only sixty-five people died from heatstroke in Karachi in May 2018. However, in 2015, extreme heat killed approximately 1,200 people. Because of the intense heat and difficult landscape, the area frequently lacks water, raising the possibility that it will eventually become a scorching desert.

Climate changes, such as drought and erratic monsoon patterns, are also worsening the situation. Furthermore, the monsoon season has become more unpredictable in recent years, making it difficult for meteorologists to forecast. Climate change has resulted in shorter winter and monsoon seasons, which last less time each year. In many parts of the country, the winter season is now only about two months long, as opposed to the previous four. Social changes intensify the effects of feverish temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions.

Currently, Pakistan’s agricultural economy is dependent on the Indus Basin, which emerges from Jammu and Kashmir. The Kashmir issue between Pakistan and India is linked to the Indus basin water dispute. Former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf acknowledged in a speech that the Jammu and Kashmir dispute was primarily about the distribution of the waters of the Indus and its tributaries between India and Pakistan, and that if one of the two were resolved, the other would cease to exist.

The Indus Water Treaty ignores future demographic and environmental pressures, worsening disputes.

Moreover, India, as an upper riparian, has complete control over water, putting Pakistan in a precarious situation.  Pakistani policymakers are concerned that India is not only rapidly building dams on the western rivers but is also actively preventing Pakistan from building water storage dams on these rivers by controlling the supply of water by filling its dams in violation of the Indus Water Treaty.

The Indus Water Treaty deals with the minimum supply of water, but it ignores water distribution and demographic changes, resulting in increased water demand in both countries. It will be extremely difficult for Pakistan in the future because the Indus Water Treaty protects both states’ water uses at the time, but overlooks each country’s future water interests. Recent economic, demographic, and environmental contacts have heightened distrust between the water-stressed states of Pakistan and India.

Water insecurity threatens Pakistan’s agriculture, health, and energy sectors simultaneously.

The present situation has raised tensions, which have the potential to trigger warlike conditions at any time, compromising regional stability. In Pakistan, water insecurity affects three sectors: agriculture, health, and energy. Many socio-economic sectors in Pakistan rely on timely and effective water flow from the Indus Basin. Changes in the flow of water from the Indus Basin will have a direct impact on Pakistan’s socioeconomic growth.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.