Taiwan has been a part of the cut-throat struggle for power in East Asia for quite some time, with its share of historical issues, nationalism, and international power politics. As one of the two Chinese republics that separated from the mainland in 1959, Taiwan sees itself as a shining beacon of democracy besides being an important hub of global technology because of its semiconductor industry.

Another important development related to Taiwan occurred on the 1st of January, 2024 when Xi Jinping gave an address promising that Taiwan would be reunited with China. Xi has managed to link the reunification with Taiwan as a core aspect of national rejuvenation, thus emphasizing a shift from pursuing strategic ambiguity towards an active and clear message.

Taiwan’s historical context is rooted in the Chinese Civil War, leading to its current status as a self-governing entity amidst claims from the PRC.

This shift has serious consequences for the United States and the US-led coalition as they will have to find a way to respond to China’s determined expansionism.

The Historical Context of Taiwan’s Dispute

The Taiwan issue can be traced to the Chinese Civil War (1927-1949), a war fought between the Kuomintang or Nationalist Party and the Communist Party of China, which emerged as the winner and founded the People’s Republic of China. Subsequently, Taiwan was invaded to create two Chinese nationalists who fought for competing ideas of “One China.”

Taiwan is now viewed as a rebellious province by the PRC, while, Taiwan’s Spanish has developed into an independent democratic state with its governing system and distinct identity. While the ‘One China’ policy was adopted by Beijing’s government, Taiwan received unofficial recognition and assistance from a number of Western countries, especially the US. Yet, this is a constant character of affairs that has brought relative order but is still based on thin ice.

Xi Jinping’s 2024 Speech: Marking a watershed Moment

As he spoke at the 2024 summit, Xi Jinping stated: that reunification is an integral part of China’s national destiny. He has also broken off the earlier rhetoric of preferring redress through negotiations. Now, he shows China’s will to resolve all issues that may be necessary, including force. This is a cut in China’s policy. There was no link before between Taiwan’s integration and Xi’s initiative of ‘the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ which is the focal point of his leadership.

Xi Jinping’s 2024 address marks a significant shift in China’s approach to Taiwan, emphasizing military options alongside diplomatic efforts.

Ever since Xi took over the leadership, he has emphasized Taiwan’s reunification, redirecting it from the historical context to the nation’s existing needs. This made sense at the time because China was trying to regain economic stability while also facing increased international criticism.

Regional Security and the Taiwan Strait

Xi’s comments have made the situation in the Taiwan Strait, which is already tense even more situated in East Asia, worse. Taiwan’s geographical position and its manufacturing supremacy in semiconductor technology make it a prize worth fighting for geopolitically in the region.

It is visible that Beijing’s activities around Taiwan including the unprecedented violation of Taiwan’s aerial defense identification zone have shown intentions to wield force. For Taiwan, this means a permanent threat, hence a rise in defense budgets and more strategic partnership with the US.

The situation in the Taiwan Strait poses threats not only to Taiwan but also to neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea, which rely on stable trade routes.

The consequences for the neighboring countries, which include Japan, South Korea, and Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), are just as important. The currently occurring trade and supply chain network in the Taiwan Strait will be disrupted as a good share of the trade flows through these waters.

Besides, these countries are between a rock and a hard place in economic relations with China, and security dependency on the US forcing them to a very thin line.

The United States and Allied Responses

The American administration has been Taiwan’s most reliable security patron following the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 which obliges the US to assist Taiwan in its self-defense.

Recently, though this assurance has grown, with the US increasing arms exports to Taiwan and increasing their militaristic ties. Xi’s belligerence has resulted in a rare agreement among both parties in Washington to now enhance Taiwan’s defense, including advanced arms supplies and possibly even the stationing of American forces in a Taiwan conflict scenario.

The U.S. has increased arms exports to Taiwan and strengthened military ties with allies in response to China’s assertiveness in the region.

U.S. partners have not been left behind either, Japan and Australia in particular. Japan has described Taiwan as a core area that it must defend, while the AUKUS alliance has led to Australia strengthening its military ties with the US.

Again, it points to the fact that any tension within the Taiwan Strait may lead to the involvement of more than one great power, making what was simply a border dispute into something much larger than it is.

Economic and Geopolitical Ramifications

Taiwan’s case involves immediate security threats as well as economic and geopolitical concerns. More than 60% of the world’s total semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan, with TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) being among the leaders in advanced chip production. This industry is at the heart of global technology supply chains, and any disruption to it will severely affect it.

Geopolitically, Chinese strength over Taiwan undermines the liberal international order that emerged after World War II. Beijing’s moves show that she is against the order championed by the US, while Taiwan has become a measure of international relations.

The strategic importance of Taiwan, particularly its semiconductor industry, makes it a focal point for geopolitical competition in East Asia.

Should China subdue Taiwan without facing any severe operational costs, it would encourage other repressive regimes to act similarly, thereby eroding the concepts of territorial integrity and self-rule.

The Path Forward

It would take a careful measure with the aim of moderating conflict in the Taiwan Strait. For China, this involves using military power which brings the risk of economic sanctions, international ostracism, and prolonged warfare that may cause unrest domestically. For the U.S. and its allies, there is the threat of inciting Beijing by taking over commitments in the defense of Taiwan.

The potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait could disrupt global supply chains and escalate tensions between major powers, impacting international relations.

It is important to settle the dispute involving not just the U.S. and China but also other states within the region such as Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. CBMs such as resuming high levels of dialogues and accords pertaining to military configuration may enhance stability.

In addition, measures that are geared towards increasing Taiwan’s capacity to withstand attacks such as in economic, political, and military terms may also act as deterrents without raising negative confrontational scenarios.

Conclusion

The conflict over Taiwan caused by Xi Jinping’s policies marks a defining moment in the geopolitics of East Asia. Having set the historical context, that reunification is inevitable, Taiwan’s Strait has been brought to high levels of stress by Beijing, which poses grave threats to both regional and global peace and security.

While the United States and its allies are responding to this threat, the scope of concern goes further than Taiwan as it involves competitive interactions over the international order. This challenge will be met with the use of deterrent capabilities, diplomatic measures and multilateral efforts to foster peace in one of the most volatile parts of the world.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.