The new dominance of technology, particularly with regards to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Research and Development (R&D), is currently reorganizing the international order, and is the predictor of the preservation of international governance. The historical determinants of state power, i. e., economic power, military potential and territorial possession, are being enhanced (or, in some cases, replaced) nowadays by AI-induced innovation.
Artificial Intelligence and R&D are reshaping global power structures, replacing traditional state power determinants like territory and military.
They have thus made AI and R&D the significant factors of national growth. Most states with strong AI systems are gaining greater influence in the global course in military, economic, and diplomatic domains. The U.S. National AI Initiative Act is a modern representation of the trend: since the proposed legislation integrates the use of AI into the long-term plan of the competitiveness, the act will promote innovation to provide benefits on the economic and defense pre-eminence. It is possible to note a similar trend in China in its AI Development Plan where centralized and state-assisted promotion of AI development is directly framed as the means of achieving global dominance, which is based on the employment of enormous data volumes.
The national plans that ensued represent a kind of techno-nationalism where AI and the R&D are not only discussed as a stimulus to the economy, but as tools in geopolitics. The ability to use AI has also become the prerequisite to the extent of diplomatic power and the strength of defense, thus establishing an auto-level of the arms race seen during the Cold War. Thus technological mastery is a sort of national ambition and at the same time a tool in the hands of sovereignty to defend itself and to act as influential and powerful platform in the surrounding world.
The spread of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies also becomes a burning issue to the current systems of governance. These multilateral institutions, including the United Nations and the World Trade Organization are yet to develop coherent, legally binding legal systems to regulate surveillance practices, enforce data sovereignty or institutionalize algorithmic ethics. In this meanwhile, regional players- especially the European Union are stepping up their game. The EU has proposed AI Act and its General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), as an example of the emerging normative power of the Union in global digital policy making.
Countries like the U.S. and China are embedding AI into defense and economic strategies, leading to a new AI-driven arms race and geopolitical rivalry.
But what can be seen as an upcoming fragmentation of regulation is magnified in the paths of regulatory development as countries such as the United States, European Union and China end up with diverse regulatory patterns. These differences dangle the risk of so-called digital decoupling, where due to different and opposing normative frameworks, interoperability and sharing of information is threatened. This possible disintegration brings in a scenario of multipolar governance vacuum that makes multilateral cooperation more difficult and increases the possibility of discrete technological spheres.
The dual-sword nature of AI, i.e., its not only civilian but also military application, gives the technology an ability to serve as a soft and hard power tool. On one hand, AI enables to increase the state soft power via efficiency in operation, innovations, and economic growth. On the one hand, we can see it in the autonomous weapon system and the sale of surveilling systems to authoritarian governments.
This dichotomy is underscored by strategic implementation of AI in defense in the form of the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) AI-enhanced warfare capabilities and the China national AI-powered surveillance prolongations. Such developments confuse the boundary between peace and conflict, civil and military arenas, and raise new problems to the theory of deterrence. With no effective international frameworks regulating AI in the sphere of security, the situation can challenge the international security outlooks with new, practical weaknesses. Based on this, the paradigm of arms control has to adjust to the unique interpretations of information-centric and AI-powered warfare.
In this regard technological asymmetry is evident through distorted spread of AI capabilities, further widening the digital gap between developed and developing parts of the world. Nations in the Global South do not possess the necessary infrastructure, human capital, and funds to nurture local development of AI. They rely on foreign systems and imported system of regulation, which generates an algorithmic imperialism, where the existing technological norms are not agreed upon mutually, but imposed.
Diverging AI regulations (U.S., EU, China) risk digital decoupling, weakening multilateral governance and creating interoperability issues.
This gap is further worsened by the decline of the South-South collaboration. The developing countries are often left out in the innovation process and they do not have international standards. This dependence weakens the innovative domestic capability and destroys digital sovereignty. This gap requires everyone to help on infrastructure, education and inclusive structures that promote fairness to get access to the enhanced AI world.
Research and development partnerships in AI are also revamping the relationships in the world. New strategic relations are to be formed over common technological agendas instead of classic military or ideological inclinations. An example of such efforts is the Quad AI partnership (United States, India, Japan, Australia) and the EU-Japan digital dialogue, which seek to coordinate the research agendas, harmonize the standards, and secure supply chains.
At the same time, the Chinese aim to spread the Chinese digital infrastructure and AI knowledge with the Digital Silk Road project around Asia and Africa. Artificial intelligence-driven diplomacy becomes, therefore, of increasing significance as a support to trade and development aid and general foreign policy. The area of technological convergence has now become the focal point of the global influence and political framework as well as the economic tangle.
As multi-lateral control on artificial intelligence (AI) there is a need to re-setting concerns to critical national and international complexities like algorithm bias in the system, mass unemployment, massive data capturing and spying on people. The existing global organizations are consistently guided by technologically advanced countries thus constraining the representational abilities of the less-developed nations and non-governmental organizations. Current initiatives Proposed–such as a United Nations treaty on artificial intelligence and an artificially intelligent regime at the World Trade Organization are at an exploratory stage. Global governance should embrace vast amounts of legal systems, stakeholders, and regional arrangements. The concept of AI diplomacy accentuates the importance of inclusive, fair contribution to the development of the digital rules. Failure of such revision can easily result in an intensification of the asymmetries, instead of their diminution, by the use of AI.
Strategic AI partnerships and initiatives (e.g., Quad, Digital Silk Road) highlight the need for inclusive, ethical global AI governance to prevent conflict and enhance cooperation.
Moreover, the development of AI and similar research and development restructures the sources of international power, which have some implications on national security, international law, foreign policy, and even diplomatic practice. The ability to put technology into practice in the modern age is often an asset that dictates the status of the state. AI leadership through rivalry and competition poses serious repercussions to peace as well as cooperation and development. Investing in a coherent regulatory framework, business ethics, and a justice-based shared vision will become essential measures in making sure that the technological development has the greatest chance to better humanity and reduce the escalation of geopolitical fault lines as AI develops.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
