India and Pakistan have had tense and occasionally antagonistic ties for many years. In parallel, the worsening environmental crisis producing a poisonous air is forcing the two neighbors to face their common fate and responsibility regarding the climate. This led to an opportunity for engagement between India and Pakistan under the banner of climate diplomacy. In the context of unavoidable climate change challenges, bordering states are bound to address the issue.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 till November 22, 2024 is a crucial event for states to address global warming. EU scientists have reported that the average global temperature anomaly for 2024 is 0.16 degrees Celsius warmer than 2023, marking the first year the planet is over 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial period, smashing the warming limit set at the landmark Paris Agreement a mere nine years ago. Besides global warming, atmospheric carbon density due to air pollution is another serious issue, which appears in cold weather.

Pollution in northern India and eastern Pakistan increases every winter when an eerie yellow haze covers the skies. This is due to a combination of farmers burning agricultural waste, coal-fired power plants, traffic, and windless days.  IQ Air, which monitors worldwide air quality, reported that in one area of Lahore, which is home to over 14 million people, the air quality index surpassed a record 1,900 in October 2024. That is over six times the amount deemed harmful to health. It is clear the toxic air is making people sick.

Since September, falling temperatures, changing atmospheric conditions, and domestic emissions have severely affected Lahore and New Delhi, with air quality indices (AQI) frequently surpassing 300 micrograms of PM2.5, fine particulate matter measuring 2.5 microns or smaller. That is far above the limit of 100 micrograms of PM2.5 which is considered acceptable.

Recently, in the early hours of November 1, according to live data monitored and compiled by IQ Air, a Swiss climate group, New Delhi was the most polluted city in the world with 585 micrograms of PM2.5 in its atmosphere, closely followed by Lahore, which recorded 240 micrograms of PM2.5. Lahore’s air quality index (AQI) has surpassed the 1000 mark in November 2024, ironically above 300 considered hazardous. A large swath of the entire Punjab province is now suffering. Multan’s AQI is crossing the limits.According to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Air Quality Index (AQI), a value of 50 or below indicates good air quality, while a value above 300 signals hazardous. The World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines say the average concentration of PM2.5 level should be below five.

The issue is trespassing when the poor air quality in Delhi frequently trades places with Lahore, the most polluted city in the world hitting hazardous air quality levels above 500 micrograms.  Both sides of Punjab are getting affected immensely. However, warmer, breezier weather helped to mitigate the smog.

In the grave situation, the extreme pollution prompted Lahore officials to close primary schools for one week and place restrictions on any smoke-related activities including barbecue restaurants, motorcycle rickshaws, and construction activities. The effects of breathing polluted air lead to an increased risk of a host of diseases, including lung cancer, stroke, and heart disease, according to the World Health Organization. Experts say India’s air pollution is so bad that smog could take years off the lives of hundreds  of people.

Air quality worsens in the winter because colder and drier air traps pollution, rather than whisking it away, as warm air does.  The beginning of winter also coincides with the stubble-burning season, a time when farmers intentionally set fire to crop debris to clear their fields, sending smoke billowing in the skies.

To mitigate this challenge, both India and Pakistan have tried to clamp down on the practice, but it is still widespread and needs practical steps. In October, India’s Supreme Court condemned the governments of India’s Punjab and Haryana states for failing to crack down on illegal stubble burning. Local officials claim they have reduced the practice significantly in recent years. Pakistan’s Punjab is providing subsidized super-seeders to farmers to offer alternative methods for disposing of crop residue.

The solutions are clear, even if not necessarily easy to implement for developing countries. Broadly, the real-time solution is to transition to cleaner energy sources across all sectors and implement effective management of crop waste, which requires significant investment and a major shift in public behavior.

On the political side, Pakistan Punjab’s chief minister indicated starting a dialogue with her Indian counterpart for a joint effort to tackle deadly air pollution, which has encircled cities on both sides of the border. Punjab’s Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz stated “This is not just a political issue, this is a humanitarian issue.” It is also emphasized by a statement that “the winds don’t know there’s a border in the middle.”

This climate crisis can be seen as an opportunity for India and Pakistan to engage and address this challenge. Climate change is globally recognized as an existential threat to the planet and all life systems. Diplomacy has been used as a tool for states to address geopolitical issues and resolve contentious matters through negotiated agreements.

However, while recognizing the necessity of multilateralism like the Paris Agreement, it is equally significant to acknowledge the need for strengthening bilateral cooperation that can promote dialogue and confidence, thereby contributing to regional stability. Cooperative and coordinated mechanisms are an investment in future peace and crisis management between and among states that share borders and are connected by land, air, and water.