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Arms Control in the Age of Emerging Technologies

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Emerging Technologies

Emerging technologies, combined with India’s offensive nuclear posture, may generate crisis instability and arms race instability between India and Pakistan. The evolving strategic dynamics in South Asia could jeopardize strategic stability between the two states in the future.

In such a strategic landscape, if a new crisis emerges between two states, both sides may have incentives to strike first. India may be encouraged to launch a first strike if it mistakenly believes it can achieve nuclear superiority.

Emerging technologies challenge second-strike capability, destabilizing nuclear deterrence between India and Pakistan.

Similarly, in such a scenario, Pakistan may have incentives to use its nuclear arsenal pre-emptively, before India’s first strike. Therefore, unlike in the past, new crises between the two states may have a greater tendency toward escalation.

Furthermore, India’s persistent increase in military spending, coupled with its offensive nuclear posture, may compel Pakistan to counterbalance India’s military buildup, and the arms race persists between the two sides.

Moreover, the ongoing military-political trends between the two sides may prompt both sides to avoid crises. However, despite these efforts, crises may still occur, but this time, they could be more unpredictable and complex. Finally, India and Pakistan must adopt new arms control measures to achieve crisis stability and arms race stability, injecting greater predictability and certainty into their bilateral relationship.

The new emerging technologies are challenging nuclear deterrence stability between India and Pakistan in one way or another. These emerging technologies include increasing precision strike capability of weapons systems, cyber technologies, autonomous weapons systems, increasing use of satellites, special designs sensors to detect nuclear-deployed weapons, and effective development of defensive weapons systems including anti-ballistic missile defense shields.

These new emerging technologies have significant negative repercussions for the assured second-strike capability of nuclear weapons states. According to scholars, second-strike capability is a prerequisite for the effective working of nuclear deterrence.

India’s shift to an ambiguous nuclear doctrine and offensive military strategies promotes instability in South Asia.

Nuclear weapons effectively prevented full-scale war between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War period. The scholars hold that nuclear deterrence continues to work between India and Pakistan because it is easier for nuclear weapons states to keep assured of second-strike capability.

Proponents of nuclear deterrence keep that when the MAD (Mutual assured destruction) situation exists between nuclear weapons states, it may become difficult for nuclear weapons states to escape such a situation, briefly because technology is difficult and impossible. If a nuclear weapons state develops nuclear capabilities to the extent that challenges the opponent’s second strike capability, such advantage may not remain for a longer period. The nuclear balance will be ensured in a brief time.

To counter such advantage, the weaker side may develop modern technologies to maintain the balance of power. It is easier for weaker nuclear weapons states to maintain the balance of power. The Cold War nuclear dynamics between superpowers demonstrated such a phenomenon. Furthermore, during the Cold War, both the belligerents realized that it was useless and hence futile to develop counterforce capabilities and to challenge the assured second strike capability of an opponent.

New era of emerging technologies may give confidence to South Asian belligerent particularly India to try to develop counterforce capabilities against Pakistan, thus challenging the assured second strike capability of Pakistan. Few of the experts are already claiming that India has started developing counterforce capabilities against Pakistan.

India has already shifted its nuclear doctrine from ‘no first use policy’ to ambiguous no first use policy. It is formulating more offensive military doctrines which includes India’s Cold Start, 2018 military doctrine, and new air warfare doctrine 2023 etcetera.

The arms race between India and Pakistan risks escalating crises, increasing the likelihood of preemptive strikes.

It is incorporating offensive weapons systems, which include the development of an Indigenous anti-ballistic missile defense system and imported systems including the Russian S-400. Furthermore, it continues to modernize its naval, land, and air force. It also has designs to emerge as a new space power.

Few scholars argue that India wishes to achieve escalation domination against Pakistan. However, contrary to these developments, repeated limited conflicts between India and Pakistan in the post-nuclearization phase have demonstrated that nuclear weapons effectively deter India and Pakistan from avoiding escalations and compel both sides to exercise restraint.

Kargil conflict, the 2001-2 military stand-off, the Mumbai crisis in 2008, and the Pulwama episode in 2019 just demonstrated that nuclear weapons deterred both India and Pakistan from escalating these limited conflicts.

Furthermore, India’s shifts towards the formulation of offensive military doctrines at conventional and nuclear levels, together with the incorporation of offensive military systems to its land, naval, and military forces may promote instability soon. First, these developments by India may lead to generating first-strike instability. Second, these developments for its part may lead to the instigation of an arms race.

In a nutshell, crisis stability and arms race stability are two primary prerequisites for ensuring strategic stability between two nuclear-armed states. New military developments on the part of India may create crisis instability. Doctrinal shifts and the incorporation of new offensive military systems may give a false sense of achieving counterforce capability against Pakistan.

A new crisis between India and Pakistan may occur as they occur in the past. In such a scenario, such a crisis may have a natural tendency toward escalation. First, India may come under the false sense that it has achieved a comprehensive first capability against Pakistan. Therefore, it might have an incentive to strike first in a crisis. Similarly, in such a given situation, Pakistan might face a situation of using or losing nuclear weapons. Therefore, in such a situation, it may have incentives to strike pre-emptively against India.

Strategic stability requires new arms control measures to mitigate emerging threats and maintain crisis predictability.

Furthermore, India’s efforts to achieve nuclear superiority against Pakistan may also led to a heightened arms race between the two sides. If Pakistan perceives that the balance of power is tilting in favor of India, it can also make efforts to maintain assured second-strike capability against India.

Scholars have long argued that it is easier and cost-effective to maintain assured second-strike capability against an opponent and it is self-defeating to threaten the retaliatory capability of an adversary. Therefore, for India, it will be counter-productive to develop such capabilities against Pakistan.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Exploited Baloch Women, New Weapon Of Baloch Terrorists

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Baloch women

The terrorist groups of Balochistan have evolved over the years, especially after the 70s, and so have their deadly attacks, methods, and operational techniques. While these groups employ a wide array of financial revenue sources for their terrorist acts, including support from hostile states, their techniques and methods to prepare their foot soldiers have become much more sophisticated and complex.

Baloch terror groups use sophisticated techniques to radicalize middle-class, educated individuals, especially women, for their operations.

Gone are the days when the Baloch tribal chiefs used their tribesmen to fight their wars against the state using tribal code. The Baloch terrorists are attracting educated, middle-class, young women for terrorism.

The Baloch terrorists are employing sophisticated manipulative indoctrinating techniques to use Baloch women mostly for suicide attacks and in some cases for motivating others.

Radicalization:

The Baloch terror groups including BLA and its Majeed Briagde have used sophisticated techniques to motivate, brainwash, and indoctrinate Baloch youth to become the fodder of their terror cannons. Their techniques include pre-radicalization. They use stories to generate extreme emotions based on perceived deprivations and extreme stories of resistance and valor.

On one hand, they generate extreme hopelessness and create a psychological state where the difference between life and death diminishes, and at the same time, they prepare them for suicide acts telling them how that is a heroic act they will be remembered for till eternity. This provides them with a purpose in death rather than life.

Playing on the vulnerabilities:

In 2022 the BLA used Adeela Khudabakhsh a Baloch nurse who worked for WHO in Turbat and took her to their hideout in the mountains indoctrinated her and even exploited her sexually making her believe that all her sins would wash away when she committed suicide act. She was somehow rescued by Pakistani security forces.

Shari Baloch, a mother of two and an MPhil committed a suicide attack in April 2022, at Karachi University killing three Chinese and injuring one besides several Pakistanis. Shari had a disturbed family life that was exploited by the BLA to the extent that she decided to end her life leaving two kids back. She was declared as the first Baloch woman suicide attacker.

Mahal Baloch who led the suicide attack on the Bela FC camp on August 26, 2024, was a law college student and was exploited by a Turbat college Professor. The professor belonged to the BLA and he is the one who primarily indoctrinated her and then handed her over to BLA who prepared her for the “greater cause” and brainwashed her to the extent that she truly believed that her suicidal act would embolden her as an icon.

Women like Shari Baloch and Sumaiya Qalandrani were exploited emotionally and psychologically to carry out high-profile suicide attacks.

In June 2023, a second attack took place. Sumaiya Qalandrani Baloch, another woman suicide bomber, targeted a convoy of the Pakistani military in Balochistan’s Turbat district. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), one of the main groups of the Baloch insurgency, declared that the “era of women’s active participation in the armed struggle has begun.” Prior to the attack, Sumaiya, 25, was working for Hakkal, the BLA’s media wing, while pursuing a bachelor’s degree in computer science. BLA trained her for four years before this attack.

Psychological Echo Chambers and Group Identity:

The Baloch terror groups have used the social psychology techniques of creating echo chambers. They have operationalized social identity theory and the dynamics of group polarization to solidify their anti-state ideologies.

By fostering a strong in-group (Baloch nationalist identity) versus out-group (state institutions) dichotomy, individuals are indoctrinated into believing they are part of a larger struggle, where their suffering is trivialized against the group’s cause.

Also, they are exposed to groupthink/echo chambers which discourage critical thinking, promote conformity to radical ideas suppress dissenting voices, and reinforce confirmation bias.

Operational Design: A Masterfully Orchestrated Campaign

The Baloch terror groups are now targeting middle-educated individuals, particularly women. This indicates a deliberate operational design by a mastermind or a handler with significant intellectual capacity. This strategy serves multiple objectives which include amplification of credibility (by involving middle-class, educated women like Shahri Baloch, Mahal Baloch, and Adeela Baloch.

BLA constructs a narrative suggesting that grievances against the state are universal and compelling hence setting a precedent, and boosting psychological warfare. The use of women creates a powerful shock factor that magnifies and amplifies the psychological impact of the attacks and gives media projection in the digital arena.

Making the Case Against BLA:

The strategy of the Baloch terrorist groups to radicalize middle-class educated individuals, especially women, is a deliberate and exploitative design aimed at achieving operational, communication/media outreach, and psychological objectives. By systematically identifying and manipulating vulnerabilities, the BLA’s handlers have created a sophisticated radicalization pipeline that needs to sustain the terror machine.

How to move forward?

The state of Pakistan needs to counter this insurgency through a combination (kinetic and non-kinetic) of social, economic, cultural, media both mainstream and social media, psychological, and operational components, with due focus on dismantling these networks, exposing their coercive methods, and providing vulnerable populations with the support needed to resist exploitation.

The state must counter these groups with a combination of psychological, social, cultural, and economic strategies to dismantle their networks and offer hope to vulnerable populations.

The state can and must use hope, inclusion, compassion, and empowerment as the tools to fight out homelessness, segregation, and brutality to defeat the Baloch terrorists.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – Falling Out From State System?

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politics

The prevailing complex political situation coupled with the worst security environment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is leading to dangerous perceptions sounding alarms as if the region would become a virtual extension of Afghanistan.

Almost all districts of the province have functional networks of the terrorists’ organizations. The southern districts and merged tribal regions have been fully or partially in control of militants; where the security people are constrained to stay at their bases as the sun goes down. Worst, the federal and provincial governments and security establishment – all seem to be passing the buck and practically doing nothing.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s growing militancy and security challenges risk turning it into the ‘badlands’ of Pakistan.

Undoubtedly, if the current state of affairs persists on political and complex security fronts, it won’t take much longer before the entire region west of Indus become the ‘bad lands’ of Pakistan – a euphemism once used for formerly federally administered tribal areas.

Many pundits feared during the merger of FATA with the province of KP that if no major socio economic, governance and administrative reforms follow, the merger would turn the entire Khyber Pakhtunkhwa into old FATA. The developments, sadly seem to be proving the pundits right.

The entire province, barring few districts, is facing a big challenge of hydra-headed militancy and religious extremism with shrinking spaces for socio-cultural, trade and economic activities; forcing the people to migrate and shift their wealth and businesses to Punjab and Sindh.

The closure of Trade and businesses is leading to mass unemployment. The burgeoning population, particularly the youth, is disillusioned, harboring deep hatred against the state and state institutions. This growing hate and extreme dislike for the establishment is finding its expression in the growing popularity of organization like Pashtun Tahafuz Movement and even Pakistan Tehrik Insaf, pitched against the federal government. The PTM and PTI have massive attraction by providing platforms to the youth to vent anger and scorn against the state and security establishment.

To address the security challenges posed by the militants’ networks and escalating anti-state sentiments, particularly amongst the youth, serious and immediate efforts are needed with multi-faceted approach including kinetic actions. A wide array of socio-economic and political engagement of communities is very much needed to address the root causes of violent extremism.

Economic stagnation and unemployment fuel discontent, driving youth toward anti-state movements like PTM and political parties like PTI.

This requires a whole of the state approach involving concerted efforts with strong coordination amongst federal and provincial administrations supported by the security establishment. However, this doesn’t seem feasible in the current circumstances since the PTI government put in place eight months ago by the people of the province has focused on confronting the federal government and has thrice tried to “invade” Islamabad, the last attempt on November 24-27.

A cursory look at the eight month rule of the Pakistan Tehrik Insaf government would reveal that the Gandapur government is least interested in the administration of the province or its socio-economic uplift. The party leadership is spending all its energies and the provincial resources on pressuring the federal government and security institutions to release its imprisoned leaders. Since taking seat of power in Peshawar, PTI is pursuing a policy of uninterrupted street demonstrations against the federal government and continuing political protest marches towards Islamabad almost each month.

Chief Minister Ali Amin Gadapur seems focused on appeasing the incarcerated Imran Khan to ensure his hold on provincial power while the party seems fractured with many power groups vying for power, ready to take his position if Imran Khan gets disillusioned with Gandapur. The presence of Bushra Bibi in Peshawar, who practically led the November march to Islamabad makes the situation much more complex.

In the fractured polity of the PTI, CM Gandapur has sidelined many party stalwarts from holding important party and government positions.

Presently, the group led by Ali Amin including Murad Saeed, Shibili Faraz, Sheikh Waqas Akram and Shahid Khattak is running the entire show. Senior party leaders including former speaker National Assembly Asad Qaiser, Ali Muhammad Khan, Atif Khan, Junaid Akbar, Shakeel Khan, Mushtaq Ghani, Sheheryar Afridi, Arbab Sher Ali and others are sidelined. Undoubtedly, they are very unhappy and upset with Ali Amin’s policies regarding the governance and the party affairs, seem helpless and have opted silence.

PTI’s provincial government focuses on federal confrontation, neglecting governance and socio-economic development in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Interestingly, the rank and file of the party particularly the youth that forms the core of the party – is least concerned or bothered about the factional fights or fissures or even the performance of provincial administration. PTI youth have been indoctrinated with a strong belief that the party especially its founder – Imran Khan – has been wrongly prosecuted by the establishment under false charges of corruption and bad governance and when he gets free, the rivers of honey and milk will flow into the province.

For the young Turks of the party, Imran Khan is the icon of resistance. They believe Mr. Khan has sacrificed luxurious life for their better future and is a lone fighter against the powerful establishment. This anti –establishment narrative has a magnetic pull for the youth in particular and ordinary people in general as there already existed a lot of resentment against policies pursued by the security establishment in Pakhtunkhwa and merged districts for decades.

On the other hand the central government and the security establishment are weary of PTI street power, resilience and skills of forming popular narratives. Pakistan Muslim League (N) and Pakistan People’s Party government at the centre is primarily focused on Punjab and Sindh introducing good governance, reforms in social sectors, diverting development projects and resources there.

It seems as if the federal government is oblivious of the worst security situation, dying trade and economic activities in Pakhtunkhwa and seems content with the PTI focused on street agitation rather than the governance mandate given to them by the people of the province.

It is clear that the federal coalition partners want to prove to the people of the province that the PTI provincial government is leadership is incapable of governing the province and lacks the agenda and the skillset for the development of the province as well as the country. PTI is being presented as an anarchist gang with the only expertise in bad mouthing and hyperbole. The PTI is also being projected as the opposition for the sake of the opposition and is only busy in disrespecting the state institutions and friend countries of Pakistan.

Federal coalition partners focus on Punjab and Sindh, leaving KP’s deteriorating conditions unaddressed.

The PML-N and PPP coalition block is also showing no interest in their own party organizational structures, which are in complete disarray in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The PML-N and PPP have left the party provincial chapters on their own, leading to intense grouping and demoralized workers.

PPP – once a popular party in the province- is so weak today that in almost one year the party has changed its provincial heads for almost a dozen times. The party current provincial head will be hardly known to the party workers, while the central leaders are shy of visiting across the Indus to interact with their party workers.

The PML-N, once enjoyed a popular vote banks in Hazara division, Kohat and Peshawar districts, has been also facing leadership crises for almost a decade. Most of its central leaders from the province including Iqbal Zafar Jaghra, Pir Sabir Shah, Mehtab Abasi and others have been sidelined and party district and Tehsil organizations are practically dysfunctional.

Both PPP and PMLN are apparently happy within their respective strong holds of Sindh and Punjab and busy further fortifying their positions to deny PTI vote bank there.

The nationalist Awami National Party is suffering from a political fatigue due to lack of charismatic leadership. The party is devoid of crowd pulling narratives and is suffering from an ambivalent syndrome with the security establishment. The relatively young leadership that took over the party command had blindly supported the security establishment for a possible greener pasture.

A whole-of-state approach is urgently needed to tackle militancy, youth disillusionment, and governance failures in the region.

However now disillusioned and demoralized by the elections results, they have gone totally in the opposite direction. The party has undergone a major organizational shake up brining new faces while sidelining majority of the party old guards.

The only opposition to the PTI in Pakhtunkhwa today is the religio-politico outfit of Jamiat ul Ulemai Islam of Maulana Fazal Rehman. The Maulana’s only strength is his captive street power and strong religious narratives. However, it’s very unlikely for JUI (F) to solely challenge the growing vote bank of PTI and its powerful narratives of the social media in near future.

To warn the country political and security elite of the prevailing situation in Pakhtunkhwa, one has to borrow few lines from “The Second Coming” of William Butler Yeats;

Turing and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst

Are full of passionate intensity.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Redefining Russia’s Asian Identity in a Post-Global Era

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Russia

Over centuries, Russia struggled to define its place between Europe (or the West) and Asia. After the failed post-Cold War experience of trying to integrate with the West, it seems to have found a balance reflecting its historical legacy, geography, and the realities of the changing world.

Russia’s huge territory, spanning more than 17 million square kilometers, is perhaps the nation’s most distinctive feature. The vast expanses are believed to have influenced Russians’ political and strategic thinking and mentality in general. However, it is not simply the sheer size of the country that matters: Russia’s presence in two parts of the world—Europe and Asia—is undoubtedly a crucial factor that has determined the country’s position in world affairs and its self-image.

Russia’s vast geography as a Eurasian power has shaped its political and strategic thinking for centuries.

The European-Asian dichotomy became relevant even before Russia began to expand eastward with its explorers and warriors crossing the Urals mountains in the 16th century, which were seen as Europe’s eastern geographical border. At that time, for Europeans, Europe and Asia were not just geographical areas: “Europe” was synonymous with culture, civilization, and progress, while  “Asia”, however artificial this concept might be, served as the defining Other for the Europeans. According to Peter Bugge, a Danish researcher of Eastern Europe,

The term “Asiatic” was mobilized with pronounced negative connotations from around 1500 in connection with Muscovite Russia, which, by the Poles, was described as barbarian and Asiatic and a threat to Christian Europe.

In the 19th century, French historians depicted Russians as “brutish Asiatics and a mortal threat to civilized Europe.” During World War II, Nazi propaganda used the “Asiatic” argument to justify the extermination of Russians, portraying them as being innately barbaric. Ironically, the same “Asiatic” rhetoric was echoed by Russia’s allies at the time with the former US President Hoover referring to Russians in a memo as “Asiatics” who “would never honor any treaties signed.”

The rhetoric changed, however, whenever Europe faced threats from within its western part: be that the revolutionary movements of 1848 that challenged the international order, or the First World War in which Germans were labeled “Huns”, representing an unruly and chaotic threat from beyond the civilized world.

In fact, Russia is not the only country to have been excluded from the Western perspective of Europe. Turkey comes to mind as a prime example, but it is also worth mentioning the phrase “Africa begins at the Pyrenees”, ascribed to Dominique Dufour de Pradt, the French ambassador in Spain in the early 19th century. What is significant is the perception of Europe as a dynamic entity with fluctuating boundaries, which can be expanded if certain criteria set by Europe are met — this perception predates the formal criteria for membership in the European Union by centuries.

That said, perceiving Europe as the synonym for progress was something natural for Russia as well. Its first large-scale attempt at modernization in the early 18th century (Peter the Great’s reforms) was aimed at making Russia a great European power, even though by that time the country already bordered China its easternmost point was across the strait from Alaska.

Russia’s first massive encounter with Asia – the Mongol invasion of the 13th century – was a traumatic experience that remained strongly embedded in the historical memory. Russia’s Asian possessions were seen as a resource base and a military frontier through much of the centuries to follow, with the country’s demographic, cultural, and industrial core remaining firmly in the European part.

Russia’s Asian territories served as a resource base and military frontier, while its cultural, demographic, and industrial core remained European.

For the Russian intellectual class, the question “Are we European enough – and should we be?”  shaped much of the political and philosophical discourse of the 19th century, giving rise to two schools of thought, the Eurocentric Westerners and the nationalist Slavophiles. Meanwhile Russia as a state continued to be an important element in the balance of power in Europe and reinforced its position in Asia through its unique geographical location. Debates on Russia’s European or Asian identity continue in the country and beyond up to this day, but a completely new answer was given in 1917.

Finding a global identity  

Russian Marxism, which gave rise to the political practice of Bolshevism, is widely seen as a homegrown school of thought. Indeed, the Russian context greatly influenced the political teaching imported from the West, but it should be remembered that Russia’s first Marxists adopted a political doctrine that they believed to be the most progressive, capable of taking the country from backwardness to modernity.

In this sense, they were absolute Westerners. For Vladimir Lenin and his followers, Communism as a political theory represented the great equalizer, allowing developing countries, including Russia, to pursue shared goals with more developed nations. But, contrary to Lenin’s expectations, a socialist revolution never took place in the core of the capitalist system, in Western Europe and North America. Still, the events in Russia resulted in a major shift in global politics.

The Cold War, with its bipolar competition, saw the emergence of the “two worlds”: centered around, respectively, the United States and the Soviet Union. The developing countries, or “the Third World”, had at least two options to follow, with their pros and cons. The Soviet experiment led Russia to impressive breakthroughs in education, science, technology, and industry, creating a viable alternative path for development that was not tied to colonialism or neo-colonial practices. Russia’s role was now not European or Asian, but global.

The Soviet Union positioned Russia as a global power, offering an alternative development path free from colonial practices.

Following the collapse of the USSR, Russian elites expected swift integration with the West. For a new Russia grappling with internal challenges, engagement with developing nations was not a priority. However, integration with the West never materialized. While Moscow believed the Cold War to be over thanks to shared efforts and goodwill between the two former rivals, the West viewed itself as the sole victor and was unwilling to treat the loser as an equal partner.

It was not until the late 2000s that Russia began re-establishing ties with Asian, African, and Latin American countries, which had once been important partners during the Soviet era. Importantly, many of the former Third World were gaining more and more agency on the international stage, becoming new centers of power.

Pivot to the East

Despite bitter misunderstandings, Russia’s economic and political ties with Europe (now embodied by the European Union) remained strong throughout the first decade of the 21st century. However, as the center of the world economy began to gravitate toward Asia, it became clear that the nation’s relations with the Asian countries needed to be reinvigorated. The groundwork had begun to be done during Vladimir Putin’s first presidential term with the 2001 Russia-China friendship pact serving as the seminal document outlining the two countries’ strategic partnership.

In 2011-12, the Russian leadership and scholars began to talk about a “pivot to the East”, meaning more focus on relations with Russia’s Asian partners. Originally, the “pivot to the East” was centered on China, aimed at “catching the Chinese wind in the sails of our economy,” as Russian President Vladimir Putin put it in his 2012 article “Russia and the Changing World.” In 2012, the Valdai Club released a report titled “Toward the Great Ocean or the New Globalization of Russia,” arguing for a more active role for Russia in Asia:

Russia […] is being held back by the backwardness of its infrastructure, an underdeveloped economy, and the demographic situation, but even more so by its obsolete Euro-centric foreign trade and economic mentality.

The report was one of the first attempts to summarize Russia’s position in Asia and to explore what opportunities it could gain by focusing more on the eastern direction. But, despite this intellectual effort and the government initiatives, the pivot to the East was initially perceived as merely an option, not a necessity. “There is a widespread belief that Russia’s only option, in light of its weakness in the Far East of the country, lies in closer ties with the West”, the report read.

Russia’s pivot to the East marked a strategic shift, redefining itself as the center of the Eurasian supercontinent, moving beyond the Europe-Asia dichotomy.

This belief was shaken in 2014 when the deterioration of relations with the West appeared to have reached a peak. And the war with the West in all but name, which started in 2022, finally destroyed it. By that time, a shift in the mindset of the Russian elites had begun to take place. According to Bruno Maçães, former Secretary of State for European Affairs in Portugal,

Traditionally, Russian elites tended to see their task as that of bringing about a gradual but complete integration with a more advanced Europe. That vision is now being replaced by a new self-image: as the center and core of the Eurasian supercontinent.

Indeed, Russia began to see itself as part of Eurasia, with Western Europe only a part of the vast interconnected continent. This may indicate a departure from the centuries-long Europe/Asia dichotomy, which today deals less and less with the issue of progress and development.

The World Majority

The division of the world into the Global North and the Global South replaced the Cold War-era notions of the “First”, “Second”, and “Third” worlds. The “Second World” ceased to exist. Some of its countries – the former Eastern European allies of the USSR and some former Soviet republics – politically and militarily aligned themselves with the West and also became some of the driving forces within the western bloc against more engagement with Russia.

Two events further set the stage for a potential confrontation between Russia and the West. The 2008 NATO Bucharest summit declaration stated that two former Soviet republics, Ukraine and Georgia, “will become members of NATO.” The 2013 political crisis in Ukraine demonstrated that the European Union would at any cost promote its agenda in a politically divided country, which is strategically important for Russia. The two main western institutions were now seen as completely unwilling to accommodate Russia’s interests. As a result, a conflict was inevitable.

The hot stage of the conflict in Ukraine, which began in 2022, led to an unprecedented rupture of ties between Russia and the West, most notably the European Union. Measures aimed at crippling Russia’s economy included, apart from the barrage of sanctions, halting the imports of Russian energy resources despite causing significant damage to Europe’s own industry. But it was not only about the economy: a special set of measures – from limiting access to western goods and services, including payment systems, to blanket travel bans to certain EU countries – targeted the general population in a bid to foster anti-government resentment. In reality, it only fueled anti-Western sentiment, even in those quarters of society, where it had not existed before.

Western sanctions have deepened Russia’s ties with the Global South, forming the ‘World Majority.

The West expected the rest of the world to jump on the bandwagon. However, an overwhelming majority of the world’s countries representing the majority of the world’s population refused to sever trade and political ties with Russia, not to mention joining the western effort to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine.

This is how the term “World Majority”, actively used in the Russian foreign policy discourse today, came into existence. And Russia began to increasingly identify itself with the World Majority where Asia plays a crucial role, which is in a sense ends its centuries-long soul-searching and trying to fit into the framework of the western civilization.

Interestingly, western analysts continue to maintain their belief that alignment with the US-led West is the only viable option for non-Western countries if they want to pursue a path of development and security. Discussing a post-conflict Ukraine, Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote about the prospect of Russia having “a post-Putin leadership interested in reintegrating the country into the West.”

The comment by the eminent scholar misses two important points. First, what passed for integration with the West in the pre-Putin times is widely seen as a disaster in Russia, both by the country’s elites and the general population. Second, Russia’s engagement with the World Majority has no alternative due to objective reasons and is not dependent on leadership. Nevertheless, Russia has never closed the door to engagement with the West based on mutual respect and recognition of each other’s interests. It remains to be seen whether the West is prepared for this type of interaction.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Maritime Terrorism-A Contemporary Reality

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Maritimes security

North Arabian Sea (NAS) is of great importance for Pakistan Maritime interests. It has Gwadar, straits and SLOCs passing in its backyard. Its sginifance has increased considerably with the envisioning of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) concept in 2015. CPEC project through Gwadar would reduce present 32 days sea route to six days.

Transportation cost would be reduced to US$200-250 per 40 feet container with a time frame of two-three days than to present US$2,000 with 16 days’ time period. Thus, any threat to ships safety in this area can have great repercussions for CPEC & in turn Pakistan. In other words, success of CPEC revolves around a secure NAS.

The North Arabian Sea’s security is vital for safeguarding Pakistan’s SLOCs and the success of the CPEC initiative.

In contrast to the general perception, Non-Traditional threats are a reality and therefore safeguarding NAS is the prime objective of Pakistan. Maritime AOR of Pakistan in North Arabian Sea, Pakistan Natural Maritime Area of Influence is depicted below.

Pakistan’s AOR
Pakistan’s AOR

Maritime Security Spans:

  1. Conventional Maritime Issues which includes country sovereignty & disputes pertaining to territories etc.
  2. Non-Traditional Threats i.e. Maritime Terrorism, Piracy, Narcotics & Human Trafficking Etc.

Maritime terrorism can be defined in different ways depending upon the particular threat a state is facing. In order to have a standardized understanding of same, Jane Intelligence Review has defined it as “The deliberate creation and exploitation of fear through violence or the threat of violence in the pursuit of political change, in the maritime domain.”

Pakistan Navy’s Task Force 88 and PMSA play key roles in countering threats like piracy, maritime terrorism, and smuggling.

Maritime Terrorism in its different form including but not limited to Piracy, Drug trafficking etc is but a reality & maritime security is directly linked to the world economy. For example, since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas conflict, shipping costs have gone up by more than 600% due to terrorist attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

Effect of Houtis Attack on Shipping Routes
Effect of Houtis Attack on Shipping Routes

Importance of Maritime security and its impacts can be seen in the terrorist attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea since January 2024 that was carried out by Houtis of Yemen. Two major incidents are appended below:

  1. The USA registered MV Genco Picardy was the victim of Houthi rebel threats on commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea in January 2024.
  2. As recently as 01 Dec 2024, two USA Destroyers (USS Stockdale & USS O’Kane) shot half a dozen Houtis launched munitions while escorting three US Flagged merchant ships through Gulf of Aden. The escorting of Merchant vessel by US CENTCOM forces in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is a clear testimony of the contemporary maritime terrorism existence close to Pakistani waters.

Even UNO through its Conference on Trade and Development has alerted that present wave of Maritime Terrorism in Gulf of Aden &  Red Sea will “particularly” harm developing countries and have an impact on global food prices.. Its impact can be gauged from the following:

  1. The largest shipping companies in all around world prefer to avoid using Suez Canal but rather transport Cape of Good Hope with their filled ships of containers. It needs to be noted that traveling through Southern Africa adds $1 million to fuel expense.
  2. Traffic through the Red Sea got down to 53 percent on that recorded during the first half of January 2024.
  3. It has also resulted in oil prices briefly reaching $82.06 a barrel before settling at $78.29 a barrel.
  4. Presently Pakistan freight charges are US 8 $ Bn which is likely to be increased US 13.35 $ Bn in case of breakup of any maritime related hostilities.
  5. While Cape of Good Hope passages have increased by 70%, Suez Canal passages have decreased interimly by 63% from the previous year. The increase in ship diversions increases fuel and labor costs while decreasing the average amount of cargo traffic reaching its destination.
  6. Shipping rates from Asia to North Europe and Asia-to-Mediterranean have more than doubled, reaching over $4,000 and $5,175 per 40-foot container, respectively. Insurance companies are reluctant to cover shipments in the Red Sea, resulting in a war risk surcharge of US$ 5,200, benefiting insurers.
  7. Egypt’s has suffered immense losses due to ship routes changes from Suez. As of first quarter of Year 2024, revenues are down to upto 40 percent in comparison to 2023 levels.

Maritime significance of maritime security derives from the fact that CPEC links the Middle East, the North Arabian Sea, and the vast Indian Ocean. Therefore, Pakistan’s top priority is maritime security.

Maritime security is important for any state which has sea frontiers for the obvious securing of its SLOCs, commerce from different state and non-state actors, Pakistan is no exception. However, being a country of continental mindset, it’s realized the same very late. Pakistan interest was further compounded in its maritime security particularly North Arabian sea which surrounds the Pakistani territorial waters & Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) during last two decades by the exponential growth of India.

Maritime terrorism, as seen in Red Sea attacks, underscores the global importance of securing critical sea lanes.

Furthermore, India’s growing gestures of terming Indian Ocean as its own, the growing USA and Western power interest in NAS and Persian Gulf to contain Iran and CPEC with China also add up to growing maritime interest by the Pakistani Government.

Pakistan Navy (PN) is the kingpin of maritime defences and protection of SLOCs. PN achieve this through regular sea exercises including once a year, SEA SPARK, IDEAS and regular war gaming of its assets in the NAS, till strait of Hurmuz. PN has a vast array of fleet including Destroyers ships, Submarines, Small Missile Boats, Gun Boats and Maritime Aircraft. Their deployment is based on the threat perception.  A task force 88 has particularly been raised for CPEC.

The objectives are to be deployed in a minimum time period in case of any emergency. PN Base Ormara is in close proximity to gwadar and it’s the second naval base of PN after Karachi. Additionally, two of its ships are permanently deployed in NAS and Red Sea area for countering Sea terrorism, Sea Narco trade, human smuggling and curbing piracy with US led coalitions.

The Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA) is a civil armed power functioning under the Ministry of Defense. It was granted authorization to confront these threats by an Act of Parliament identified as the PMSA Act of 1994, as well as by other international instruments.  The main objective of PMSA is to keep maritime peace and order while using a mechanized, well-prepared, and well-coordinated force.

In addition to upholding maritime deterrence by confiscating illegal drugs and smuggling goods into and out of Pakistan, the PMSA handles all aspects of human rights and welfare.  PMSA is particularly very successful against illegal fishing, sea narcotics operations and human smuggling. Its western fleet patrol Gwadar and Gwatar bay on regular bases for creating deterrence.

A secure maritime domain supports Pakistan’s economic stability, linking the Middle East, NAS, and the Indian Ocean through CPEC.

National economy is a synonym for national security, and maritime economy is integral part of national economy. Therefore, Pakistan need long term maritime vision & policy. Notwithstanding the efforts of Pakistan’s Navy and Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA) the potential dangers necessitate continued vigilance and preparedness by all stakeholders.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Jihadist Networks Threaten South Asia

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Jihadist Networks Threaten South Asia

Since the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a surprise outbreak in Syria’s north western Idlib province, worrying reports have emerged suggesting that HTS’s ranks include members of the Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda associates.

HTS’s ranks reportedly include Afghan Taliban members and Al-Qaeda associates, indicating deep ideological and operational ties.

Sources from the Global Jihadist Network claim that these foreign fighters received military training at several Al-Qaeda facilities in Afghanistan.

In terms of anonymity, a source within the Taliban confirmed the participation of the Afghan Taliban in the ongoing offensive in Syria. However, the source claims that Afghan fighters have joined HTS in a personal capacity and do not receive official support from Kabul.

The relationship between the Afghan Taliban and HTS is not new. In August 2021, following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, HTS members in Idlib celebrated their victory by waving the Taliban’s white flags. The source also revealed that these Afghan fighters are associated with Haqqani’s network.

The Haqqani’s Network and Al-Qaeda have a long-standing relationship based on shared ideological goals, including the establishment of an Islamic caliphate and the fight against foreign forces, particularly the U.S.

The Haqqani’s Network has provided logistical support, safe havens, and training camps for Al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan. They have jointly carried out high-profile attacks, including the 2011 assault on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.

With the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, their strategic ties have been further strengthened, allowing both groups to consolidate their influence in Afghanistan.

After August 15, 2021, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), operating under the Al-Qaeda umbrella, began sending fighters to Afghanistan. This initiative was facilitated by Abdul Rahim al-Afghani, a senior commander within the Afghan Taliban. It is pertinent to mention that Al Qaida, HTS, and the Afghan Taliban have a common global jihadist ideology.

Intelligence assessments from the Middle East Counterintelligence and Counterterrorism teams suggest that recent attacks against the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria by Sunni and Salafi factions were carefully orchestrated over several months.

These efforts have reportedly been supported by some Middle Eastern and Western nations, and global jihadist networks. Among the groups involved are the Haqqani’s Network, aligned with the Afghan Taliban, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Al-Qaeda Central.

A UN Security Council report recently revealed that “since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, the country has once again become a hub for terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda.The group has set up eight new training camps and five madrasas across several provinces. Al-Qaeda is also using safe houses in Herat, Farah, Helmand, and Kabul to facilitate the movement of operatives between Afghanistan and Iran”.

The Haqqani Network and Al-Qaeda continue their long-standing alliance, amplifying threats across South Asia and the Middle East.

Conversely, Islamabad has consistently maintained that the bases of groups engaged in terrorism within Pakistan are situated on Afghan territory.

Meanwhile, Kabul has continually dismissed Pakistan’s claims, including those supported by the United Nations.

However, the ongoing evolution of the situation is prompting serious concerns regarding the possible dissemination of radical ideologies to areas beyond Syria.

The geopolitical consequences for regions such as South Asia are incredibly concerning and could have far-reaching effects.

In recent years, the Middle East and South Asia have become hotbeds for extremist activities, with various terrorist organizations vying for power and influence.

Among the most concerning developments is the emergence of ideological links between the Afghan Taliban, Al-Qaeda, ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria), and HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham).

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) maintained ties with al-Qaeda and shares a global jihadist ideology.

Despite officially severing its affiliation with al-Qaeda in 2016, there are speculations that the breakaway factions from al-Qaeda, remain deeply connected to this ideology.

South Asian Muslims have notably participated in the Syrian conflict, particularly through Iran-backed groups like the Zainabiyyun Brigade, primarily comprising Pakistani Shia youth, and the Fatemiyoun Division, made up of mainly Afghan Hazara fighters. Pakistan has banned the Zainabiyyun Brigade, designating it a terrorist organization.

HTS, despite rebranding attempts, remains a significant player in global jihadist networks with territorial control and operational reach.

Simultaneously, there is mounting evidence from United Nations reports and U.S. intelligence that al-Qaeda is regrouping in Afghanistan, inviting jihadists from across the globe for training.

Pakistan has expressed credible concerns that Afghan territory is once again becoming a hub for terrorist activities, a claim that Kabul consistently denies.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham HTS, emerges as a potential security threat, particularly as it aligns with the methodologies of the broader global jihadist network.

Its ideological affinity and operational capabilities suggest it could follow in al-Qaeda’s footsteps, becoming a destabilizing force not just in the Middle East but also in South Asia and beyond.

The waving of white flags of the Afghan Taliban HTS symbolized ideological solidarity and a shared vision for the future of jihadist movements.

The escalation benefits several actors. HTS and its allied rebel groups gain leverage by demonstrating resilience and operational capability, potentially attracting more funding and recruits.

HTS, the successor to Al Nusra Front—Syria’s Al-Qaeda affiliate that once dominated the rebel forces—continues to be led by Ahmed Hussein al Shar’a (Aka Abu Muhammed Jolani), who was also at the helm of Al Nusra.

In an effort to gain international backing, the group has sought to soften its image, even removing more extreme pro-Al-Qaeda factions. However, the U.S. and most international organizations remain disbelieving, refusing to embrace these changes.

Despite a $10 million bounty on his head from the U.S., al-Jolani controls significant territory in northwest Syria and oversees millions of displaced civilians.

Al-Jolani, once an Al-Qaeda operative, now seeks to overthrow Assad and establish Islamic rule in Syria.

Reports also suggests that “Turkey is strengthens its influence in northern Syria, advancing its strategic interests against Kurdish groups and maintaining a buffer zone along its border”.

The ongoing conflicts risk regional instability, inviting extremist ideologies to thrive and destabilizing the Middle East and South Asia.

On the other hand, Iran and Russia, despite being on opposing sides, could use the renewed fighting to consolidate their roles in Syria, positioning themselves as critical players in any resolution.

Additionally, the heightened conflict fuels demand for arms and resources, benefiting those involved in smuggling and the arms trade.

The continuation of hostilities risks exacerbating regional instability, prolonging human suffering, and creating opportunities for extremist ideologies to thrive. A focus on de-escalation and political solutions is crucial to mitigate broader repercussions.

The ideological links between Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and HTS pose a severe threat to the Middle East and South Asia, with potential spillover effects reaching far beyond these regions.

As these extremist groups continue to exploit their ideological similarities, it is crucial for governments and international organizations to work together in countering their activities and preventing further destabilization.

Only through a comprehensive and coordinated approach can we hope to address the growing menace posed by these interconnected terrorist organizations.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Fatigue Revolution?`

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Fatigue Revolution?`

Indeed, if the world ever really is into an epidemic the naive and the innocent come beneath it. For the tired people that make up these two Generations called Z and Alpha, they deserve the sad name of “children of the popular pandemic”. For example, how often do they exhibit signs of tiredness in workplaces, homes, universities, and other institutions? It’s easy to see why people use the epithet for these generations: lazy generations. Very worrisome for the future of a world dominated by a psychologically tired generation. Most importantly, it is not a tangible ailment like a fever; it is an illness of the mind, which is fast growing among youths across the globe.

Generation Z and Alpha fail to actualize their energies into efforts that prioritize long-term rewards over instant gratification.

The brain dominates human functioning, controlling voluntary and involuntary actions, and makes decisions or judgments regarding behavior: The Limbic System, sometimes called the “animal brain,” it is responsible for instincts, desires, and short-term gratification. The Prefrontal Cortex, this concerns the regulation of emotions, logical upholding or reasoning, and long-term planning. The Insula, the hub for decision-making, bringing inputs together from both the limbic system and the prefrontal cortex for choices.

For example, because of the predominance of limbic systems over the prefrontal cortex, it helps explain why human beings tend to be very unsatisfied when they do not achieve short gains in life and why the long-term payoff seems unreal. It is powered by a dopaminergic circuit, the internal neurochemical state that is responsible for the feelings of pleasure and satisfaction states.

Activities such as scrolling through Facebook will almost immediately release dopamine due to the activity of the hypothalamus, which happens to be part of the limbic system, making most unsuccessful habits appealing. Also, serotonin, a chemical associated with long-term well-being, helps when the brain weighs the costs and benefits of actions to the perceived reward.

Having been born into a culture aversion to real sense-making and with development causes in their philosophical and psychological foundations, contributing to the problem of instant gratification as opposed to a greater deferred reward from effort, Generation Z and Alpha fail to actualize their energies into efforts that would see them motivate for connecting with themselves, deny that individual self-awareness practice is necessary for progress beyond egocentric and ethnocentric thinking and their self-actualization journey in consciousness development, aka budding pinions as referred to in Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. Bulging short-sightedness signals their continued lack of growth as they tend toward being stuck at lower levels of human personal development.

The epidemic of psychological fatigue risks a workforce unable to innovate, adapt, or contribute meaningfully to societal progress.

The house is a clear testimony to the crisis at work. Seventy-eight percent of all white-collar workers in India suffer from burnout by self-report, as revealed in the Anatomy of Work Report put out by Asana (2023). The most commonly cited reasons include fatigue, lack of motivation, and reduced productivity.

A similar global Gallup poll indicates that only 21% of Gen Z employees worldwide consider themselves to be actively engaged in their workplace, while others report feelings of disengagement and a lack of purpose. With regard to educational institutions, student concentration seems to be shrinking while academic challenges do not seem to motivate students much, preferring instead to consume media passively than to engage in active learning.

Exacerbated by social media networks, instant gratifications of likes, comments, and entertainment stimulate a feedback loop, embedding unproductive behavior into an individual. As per a study conducted by the American Psychological Association (APA), individuals aged between 18 and 24 years spend an average of 7 hours on television, side his activities including use of social media during the time. This is detrimental to sleep and also increases reliance on external validation at the same time deteriorating the ability of the prefrontal cortex to control emotion and pursue long-term goals.

Should this trend remain untrammeled, dire consequences lie ahead for the future. Such a workforce composed predominantly of demotivated people will find it difficult to innovate, and to adapt, or contribute meaningfully to progress in society. Psychological fatigue will have dire implications for reduced productivity, stagnated industries, and the erosion of cohesion within communities. In personal terms, it will manifest as being unable to reach self-actualization leading to empty lives where people cannot apply themselves constructively within their families, workplaces, and societies.

Keeping in view the trend of laziness and mental fatigue among Generation Z and Generation Alpha, if this trend continues unrestrained, it will directly influence all sections of society-not just economically, politically, but also socially. These generations nurture even instantaneous desires as well as seeing efforts as a burden rather than a necessary means to success. They may possibly build a future that is self-sabotaging. Echoes of this “silence epidemic” could weaken the locomotive of the economy-an unattractive workforce-disinspiring citizenry-irrelevant community and ill-disciplined society.

Over-reliance on technology fosters shallow engagement, erodes critical thinking, and widens the digital divide

This lazy generation can possibly contribute to lowering the levels of output and innovation. Lazy and indisciplined people wouldn’t find the propagation or the sustaining of many kinds of economic growth by technological advancements. Such a report by the World Economic Forum contends that unmotivated employees rob the world economy of trillions of dollars every year. Besides, the greater dependence on automation and AI as compensation for human shortcomings brings a dazzling distinction between rich and poor nations-the widening gap between the haves and the have-nots, which keeps on multiplying the existing inequalities.

The entrepreneurial spirit might dwindle as fewer individuals with the grit to build ventures coalesce into economic stagnation and lessen innovation, such as automatic engines that combat lift acceleration in longevity.

The very important aspect of a political point of view is that the lazy generations anglicize and thus weaken leadership and governance. It needs predictive ability, the strength to stand up against adversity, and clever attitudes that enable leaders and followers to take the hard road to long-term solutions instead of quick, immediate gains. A generation focused primarily on instant, immediate pleasures may produce leaders who jeopardize these qualities in leadership and governance, leaving paralysis in policymaking and poor governance behind.

Few young people of today seem to get involved. Voting, community service, and other forms of civic participation have witnessed a downtrend in younger age groups. Thus, democracy clings to the most fragile institutions and prepares the soil for authoritarian trends. Harmony may soon become history without participative action in policymaking at societal as well as individual levels. Such societies will be left vulnerable and dangerously exposed to several crises.

The lazy, in fact, may prove socially harmful as their character or condition would lead to broken communities and a great mental health crisis. These would not give to building social ties that rely heavily on cooperation and shared effort; instead, unmotivated persons would focus their attention on personal comfort rather than community soundness and that would end up creating communities that are isolated and disconnected.

Along with that, fatigue and lack of purpose can also aggravate problems such as anxiety, depression, addiction, and many others, adding further burden on healthcare systems in terms of finances. The values like hard work and perseverance may get more eroded, giving rise to greater consumerism and materialism, which would further destabilize the social fabric.

Indeed, technology, which is an important organ of present-day life, is likely to prove further disastrous to lazy generations. Over-reliance on immediate gratification through non-digital platforms induces shallow habits of engagement and atrophy in some skills.

Not only does this reliance on technology create a deficit in critical thinking skills or problem-solving skills, it also builds a wider digital divide so that there exist “tech elites” in society, whereas the rest of the world lags.

A lazy generation can culturally kill creativity and innovation. Intellectual and artistic activities require diligence, persistence, and a long-term perspective: qualities that the rising generations are hard-pressed to find among them. This could, in fact, be a cultural standstill: contributions to literature, art, and science made further and further overshadowed by passing entertainment. The less-motivated dominated societies may yet lose their competitive advantage on the global level, towards decreasing their influence in cultural and scientific arenas.

Addressing the ‘silent epidemic’ requires systemic changes in education, workplace culture, and societal attitudes toward mental health and long-term planning.

Yet another dangerous concern is environmental neglect. Climate Change requires continued effort and vision into the future- which are attributes lazy generations probably lack. So convenience and other things like that now are part of their reality, but what benefit do these have? These compromises would even be further added, extremely illogical though, by overconsumption and waste-desire-for-instant-gratification.

It requires the requirement to develop a more substantive connection with intrinsic values and distant objectives. Educational systems must relate philosophical grounding, critical thinking, and self-awareness at an early stage. Employers may ameliorate workplace fatigue by building such an atmosphere that is emphasizing mental health and balance such as flexible schedules, and mental health resources. On the other hand, higher awareness at a societal level concerning the neuroscience of decision-making and dangers from instant gratification is the key.

Thus, the silence epidemic is a problem that is multi-dimensional, arising from psychosocial exhaustion and changes in society. Making it easier for this to resolve would, thus, involve these parties; individuals, educators, employers, and policymakers-all of whom will ensure that future generations are better prepared to lead meaningful and productive lives.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

India’s Nuclear Submarine Program Raises Security Concerns for Pakistan

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India’s Nuclear Submarine Program

The proliferation of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) by India in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) represents a significant development with far-reaching implications for the security architecture of South Asia. India’s nuclear submarine program is part of a broader strategy to enhance its naval capabilities in the IOR, aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the region.

India’s INS Arihant and INS Arighaat mark its leap into nuclear-powered maritime deterrence with SLBMs targeting Pakistan and beyond.

While the United States has recognized India as a net security provider in the IOR, with the intent of curbing China’s rise, the expansion of India’s nuclear submarine fleet raises critical security concerns for Pakistan and alters the region’s strategic balance. While Pakistan is already lagging behind India in terms of conventional military strength, landmass, and economic power, the growing maritime capabilities of India are likely to exacerbate Pakistan’s security dilemma.

India has docked two nuclear-powered SSBNs; INS Arihant and INS Arighaat. Commissioned in 2016, INS Arihant is armed with K-15 missiles with a target range of 750 km, while deploying in 2023, INS Arighaat is equipped with the more advanced Kalam series missile: K-4 with a projected range of 3500 km. These missiles can carry nuclear warheads. Just a few days ago, on 27 November India carried out a successful test of a K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from the INS-Arighaat.

With the successful launch of a K-4 missile (SLBM) from a nuclear submarine, India has demonstrated itself as a potential naval power in the region. It also underlines India’s persistent struggle to spread out its nuclear submarine fleet. Moreover, India is likely to commission its third SSBN, the INS Aridhaman by 2025. It will further augment India’s defense prowess, strategic autonomy, and deterrence against Pakistan. With the project of indigenization of defense technology, India’s maritime assets are increasing in the region.

India’s development of the K-4 SLBM, capable of carrying MIRV technology, underscores its advancing second-strike capability.

The K-15 missile when fired from the Bay of Bengal can hit Southern Pakistan, while the K-4 missile which is an intermediate-range ballistic missile can precisely target all of Pakistan and much of China. India is projected to have produced around 172 nuclear warheads, of which 24 are referred to its ballistic missile submarines as per a report published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Given the fact, that India has demonstrably achieved second-strike capability and become a significant naval power in the region.

Moreover, with tangible progress in defense capabilities, India has conducted a successful trial of the Agni-5 missile, which is loaded with Multiple Independently Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology. MIRV is the latest technology in the missile domain, with the ability to exact unprecedented damage on the enemy side. There is a high chance that K-4 SLBM will also be mated with MIRV technology, which will further strengthen India’s sea-based deterrence.

This evolving nuclear deterrence posture underscores India’s strategic intent to solidify its position as a major regional power while also intensifying security challenges for its neighbors, particularly Pakistan. Moreover, India also intends to build larger 13500-tonne SSBNs equipped with pressurized light water reactors (PLWRs) and Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), to further strengthen its maritime posture.

Pakistan’s Babur-3 SLCM lacks credible second-strike capability due to operational limitations tied to diesel-electric submarines.

Similarly, India is building a multi-billion-dollar base designed to protect India’s growing fleet of nuclear submarines in a key area of the Indian Ocean. The new base, INS Varsha, has secret design features. Its location essentially allows for the underground docking of the submarines.

Pakistan’s security concerns regarding India’s SSBN program are well-founded. India’s development of a sea-based nuclear deterrent, through its SSBN fleet, significantly affects the strategic balance in South Asia. Presently, Pakistan does not possess nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, which further complicates its security posture.

In response to the threat posed by India’s INS Arihant, Pakistan has developed the Babur-3, a submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM). This missile is a sea-based variant of Pakistan’s ground-based Babur-2 and can carry nuclear warheads, with an estimated range of 450 km.

Enhanced collaboration with China could help Pakistan build SSBNs to counter India’s growing naval dominance in the Indian Ocean.

Nonetheless, the Babur-3 missile has some operational constraints. First, it is stationed and fired from a Diesel-electric submarine or Air-independent Propulsion platform. Diesel-electric submarines are less efficient agile, and noisier which makes it vulnerable to the enemy’s first strike. Hence, Baber-3 with a diesel-electric submarine does not provide Pakistan with credible second-strike capability.

Therefore, Pakistan needs to focus on investing more in maritime force-building. China can help Pakistan in building nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) to balance the Indian maritime force posture in the Indian Ocean region. Since the nuclear deterrence of Pakistan relies on ground-launched missiles and air power systems which are vulnerable to enemy attack, Pakistan needs to reassess its defense capabilities.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

The Failure of Middle East Peace Efforts

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Middle East

The mortar attack of December 3, 2024, by Hezbollah in Lebanon and the subsequent blatant violation of the ceasefire reveals one more conspicuous ineffectiveness of international organizations that are striving for the establishment of peace in the Middle East. On the same day, news appeared regarding the Israeli statement that supplies to Gaza were frozen and more than 300 trucks waited at the entry point to deliver the humanitarian assistance.

The mortar attack by Hezbollah on December 3, 2024, underscores the ineffectiveness of international organizations in maintaining peace.

These events underline the ongoing instability of ceasefires and the inability of global organizations to fix essential causes of the conflict and control sustainable reforms. The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains terrible after many years of warfare and political turbulence, and no international organization has provided any assistance.

These blockades by Israel aggravated by a lack of proper intervention by the international community have left the region hopeless. Different humanitarian organizations estimate that up to 80% of residents in the Gaza Strip depend on some humanitarian assistance, a significant part of the area’s infrastructure is destroyed because bombings continue and reconstruction is insufficient.

Although the various international actors lay the groundwork for temporary ceasefires and secession of hostilities, they are not anchored on the social and economic conditions of an almost failed society. Alms and hunger keep pushing people to radicalization, thus ensuring that violence remains ‘the order of the day’ in the region. However, there is always doubt about the position of the international community, which acts as a mediator in most such cases.

Most of the actors involved in peacemaking are deemed to have political prejudices, which hurts confidence between two warring factions. For instance, the United States, one of the most successful mediators in that area, is often accused of public support for Israel, which weakens the reliability of its peace initiatives.

Even more, other global organizations like the United Nations have often failed to implement resolutions largely because of internal conflicts and the power of veto by permanent members of the Security Council. Such bias has caused a halt in constructive negotiations, which are all that make up peace-making processes that instead become crisis-solving processes.

The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire, with 80% of residents dependent on aid amid ongoing blockades and violence.

It is the same in Lebanon where the situation is just as bad. It has been struggling with an economic crisis, political stagnation, and a post-defeat period resulting from the intervention of outsiders for more than forty years. Hezbollah is a dominant non-state actor which has large political and military aspirations and remains a threat to the sovereignty of Lebanon.

The latest violation of the ceasefire agreement with Israel on December 3 signifies how Hezbollah acts with total influence and frequently turns Lebanon into a proxy theater. Such actions not only aggravate the situation in the region but also contribute to the world’s failure to punish non-state actors.

This state of affairs shows that proper compliance with the UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for the disarmament of Hezbollah, common among other regional milieus, is among other things, proof of other international frameworks as being incapable of preventing conflicts from escalating.

Yet another area of concern which, sadly, is not attended with sufficient attention is that of penalties in peace processes. Ceasefires are many times signed with no well-defined mechanisms for how they will be violated in the future with little repercussions. The recent mortar attack by Hezbollah is an example in this respect given the fact that it was carried out at a time of an uneasy peace after months of escalation of tensions in the region.

If there are no physical consequences for violating such ceasefires then they are just a show of a stop to fighting instead of being a tool for the achievement of peace. This pattern has been played out many times in Gaza when numerous ceasefires have been violated over the years by both Israelis and Palestinians.

International actors often lack impartiality, undermining their credibility as mediators in the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Moreover, most of the acts in violation of women’s rights are responded to on an international level reactively rather than proactively. Global actors pay considerable attention to the emergencies that are taking place at the moment but do not devote time to the causes that initiate the conflict.

In Gaza; the decrease of tensions may be achieved through addressing the problem of blockade, sharing improvement of living conditions, as well as support of economic development. However, these measures can only be sustained only with a continuing commitment from the international community something that is greatly lacking at present.

As well as that in Lebanon the overcoming of the basic conditions of Hezbollah’s influence means political corruption, economic inequality, and foreign intervention would be required. However international endeavors have been sporadic and half-hearted and this has put Lebanon in a precarious state of affairs. Failure to develop a coherent approach for dealing with these issues is symptomatic of a larger problem regarding the inability of the current global system to meet the new requirements of modern war.

It was also this same structure that made the broader implications of these failures not confined to the Middle East. Conflict resolution in international institutions is ineffective thereby leading to compromise of legitimacy in international governance institutions. United Nations through its blue helmet soldiers has been at the forefront of peacemaking for decades but it has failed at the printing time in countries such as Gaza and Lebanon among others.

Legal changes such as fiscal and constitutional/public reform in accountability measures, impartiality in mediation, and enforcement functions are needed to reintroduce credibility and long-term stability. The concerned violations were observed on December 3rd in Lebanon and Gaza, however unfortunately they are not mere sporadic incidents but reflect the failure of current international conflict regulation paradigms.

Ceasefires are frequently violated without repercussions, leading to a cycle of violence rather than sustainable peace.

As the region is in the process of instability, the world has to realize that it cannot go on like this and its current countermeasures are ineffective. The coexistence of ceasefires and no punishment, of mediation and partiality, and interventions with no changes, only prolong the fighting.

It is high time for international actors to stop dwelling on temporary measures and find feasible methods that enhance justice and development and give a human face to the victims of wars. But only in this way, the Middle East can imagine a future for itself wherein the word peace will not just be a fleeting echo.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

PTM’s Unconstitutional Demands and the TTP Threat

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Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM)

The leadership of Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) could provide true respite to the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by outcasting terrorist leaders through the Pashtun National Jirga. At the very least, they should expel Noor Wali Mehsud from his tribe for his involvement in the mass killings of Pashtuns during the terrorist attacks. But Manzoor Pashteen would not consider this course of action as Fitna al Khawarij. TTP and PTM have sympathies on the basis of tribal bonds.

TTP exercised 5-day ceasefire to facilitate PTM in holding a Jirga in which national security institutions were maligned for nefarious designs. To the contrary, when Pashtun masses were participating in the 8 February general elections, Khawarij TTP erupted to kill people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in terrorist attacks. Therefore, PTM is making unlawful and unconstitutional demands of security forces to halt counterterrorism operations in the areas where TTP is based.

The PTM’s leadership is criticized for failing to address the threat posed by terrorist leaders like Noor Wali Mehsud.

PTM has a myopic view on terrorism, a global threat, but its leadership considers it only a problem of the Pashtun community, and it is creating threat misperception in the society. Manzoor Pashteen did not criticize Afghanistan and the Taliban for contributing to terrorism, while the international community is very vocal in this regard. Chinese Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Yue Xiaoyong, recently stated that around twenty terrorist outfits are active in Afghanistan.

Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov has also raised concerns over growing terrorist groups in Afghanistan, and he has warned that these militants could destabilize Central Asian states. Similarly, General Michael E. Kurilla, commander, US Central Command, said in March that Afghanistan is harboring Fitna al Khawarij TTP, and inaction against ISIS-K sanctuaries would incite violent conflicts in South and Central Asia.

Multiple reports of UNSC support Pakistan’s claims that Fitna al Khawarij TTP is becoming a global terrorist threat. Therefore, PTM’s opposition to visa regulations and border control mechanisms is aimed at strengthening the alliance of terrorists and smugglers, and it would facilitate Fitna al Khawarij TTP in the free movement of terrorists, arms, and explosives.

As a result, there has been a surge in terrorist attacks and suicide bombings within society. Moreover, PTM’s stance on identity documents and visa policy of Pakistan is against international law and norms of international relations. The Pashtun national Jirga demanded the government surrender sovereignty to Afghanistan, which would be unacceptable for any independent state in the world.

PTM’s demands to halt counterterrorism operations are seen as unlawful and detrimental to security in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

As a matter of fact, the rise of PTM is synonymous with the resurgence of terrorism and Khawajij TTP in the country. It has devised illegal activities and informal forums to create a false perception of its popularity. The misuse of social media platforms and the exploitation of Pashtun Jirgas do not accurately reflect their influence on the Pashtun masses.

Social media platforms provide enormous space for antisocial elements to remain anonymous and disseminate misinformation with unusual speeds and connectivity. There are many instances in which political movements and elections in a country were manipulated by another country through social media.

The information revolution and social media have empowered the common man, but they have also become potent sources of manipulation for the general public at the hands of gigantic technology companies. Therefore, some political analysts believe that social media has strengthened democracy, while some other researchers criticize it for threatening democratic values in the world.

The lack of a single survey poll on PTM’s popularity demonstrates that its claims to represent the interests of Pashtuns are a sham. PTM shies away from electoral politics due to a lack of public support. It conducted a Pashtun national Jirga with big fanfare, but it failed to gather people enough to the strength of a provincial constituency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The group’s narrow focus on Pashtun issues creates a misperception of terrorism as solely a local problem, ignoring its global implications.

Indeed, the massive participation in the national elections demonstrated that Pashtuns had rejected PTM. Therefore, PTM has neither legal grounds nor democratic values to represent the will of the people of Pakistan, as elected governments are in place on a federal and provincial level under the constitution. Hence, it is depending on illegal jirgas to undermine the true representatives of the general public.

 Manzoor Pashteen attempted to become the de facto ruler of KP by convening the Pashtun national jirga, and he exploited the ethnic sentiments of Pashtun leadership for his own sense of grandiosity.  He crossed a red line when he gave an ultimatum to the armed forces to quit KP in two months. This demonstrates the justification for the federal government’s ban on PTM, which poses a genuine security threat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.