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Rapid Increase in India’s Nuclear Forces

By
Dr. Zafar Khan
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Indian Nuclear Forces

Like the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) also produces credible reports about the status of all nine nuclear weapon states. This concerns their deterrent force modernization, doctrinal posture, and geopolitical and geostrategic reasons. Unanimously, these leading institutions argue that due to the return of great power politics primarily based on geopolitical reasons, nuclear weapon states do not only modernize but also increase their nuclear forces.

The recent SIPRI document reveals that India possesses more nuclear forces than Pakistan.

Even before the publication of the SIPRI report 2024, many Pakistani security analysts, including the author of this piece, predicted by critically analyzing that India’s Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) was on many mega force development programs in all types of air, land and sea domains of forces besides increasing its strategic partnership with a number of leading countries such as the US, France, Russia and Israel. The policy for such a juggernaut force development program remains consistent irrespective of who is political power in India. Consistency in the state’s policy matters to help achieve the desired goals.

India has developed many nuclear power plants, and quite a few of them are not under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) additional protocol. The US-India nuclear deal signed in 2005 ultimately led to the Nuclear Suppliers Group’s (NSG) special waiver to India in 2008. It is interesting to note that NSG was initially created in response to India’s nuclear tests in May 1974. Out of these nuclear power plants, India can produce lots of fissile materials helping India to develop many nuclear warheads. Along with other leading nuclear weapon states, India does not agree to cut off the existing fissile materials as prescribed in the proposed Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT).

India is aggressively following on a number of major force development projects such as the Ballistic Missile Development (BMD), Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), sophisticated air-defence systems such as S-400, nuclear-powered submarines, Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs), short and long ranges ballistic missiles including that of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), hypersonic missile, and even the aspiration for testing the H-bomb.

These deterrent force delivery systems will require lots of warheads. The more India aspires to develop sophisticated delivery systems, the more warheads it will require and the farther it will get away from the minimum deterrence it initially conceptualized.

It is argued that India often omits the term “minimum” from its declared policy of credible minimum deterrence. That said, what is minimum against China cannot be minimum for Pakistan. Realistically, this is the dilemma that India may never get out of unless it officially declares that it no longer practices minimum deterrence.

All this is noted, India is rapidly increasing its nuclear weapons. Many may consider this for geopolitical reasons because of the fast-evolving global strategic environment where India exploits this to the best of its strategic advantage. Others consider this for security reasons, as many Indian security analysts think both the rise of China and nuclear Pakistan are a threat to India’s potential rise in the so-called Indo-Pacific region. Still, others view India’s rapid increase of its nuclear forces as an opportunity to demonstrate its power projection, escalation dominance and military aggression against its rivals in the broader South Asian region.

This will have policy implications for India. India will demonstrate its dominance over others. It will assert that the Indian Ocean is India’s ocean. It will then push out others from its declared hemisphere, including that of the US. It will expand its naval bases in the Indian Ocean region. India will keep maximizing its power potential by containing its rivals. The more it maximizes its power, the more it undermines the security of its rivals to recall the classic “fear” factor emitting out of the security dilemma. Security dilemmas increase fear, competition, arms races, alliances, and crisis instability.

Given the evolving systemic security dilemma in South Asia, Pakistan may continue to produce effective countermeasures by plugging the deterrence gaps against its rival.

This is reflected by full spectrum deterrence falling within the ambit of credible minimum deterrence. Despite being pushed for an arms race, Pakistan may not desire an aggressive arms race, but it would need to keep a strategic balance for deterrence purposes. Strategic balance rather than parity could be a suitable policy option for Pakistan to prevent its adversary from preemptive strikes. In addition to this, revisiting the proposed strategic restraint regime, confidence-building measures (CBMs), nuclear CBMs, nuclear moratorium, etc., may also contribute towards broader strategic stability in South Asia.

Shanghai Spirit as the Linchpin of Asian Century

By
Sara Khan
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SCO Summit 2024

The formidable Eurasian bloc SCO is set to become another brick in the beautiful edifice of multilateral cooperation as the world battles a complex tapestry of challenges. Representing more than 40pc of the world population and a quarter of global GDP, the resounding appeal of Shanghai spirit remains relevant to foster rational regional order. SCO rejuvenation is the quintessential embodiment of the multilateral world order to navigate the intricacies of emerging geopolitical and economic challenges jointly. The spectacular diplomatic clout of SCO is also one of the factors behind the surprising geopolitical calm in Asia.

Striking a defiant note, this year’s summit; comprising the most powerful nations across Asian landmass, is crucial as Russian ally Belarus could join the bloc in a historic breakthrough.

Asian powerhouses hope the latest meeting will pave the road to a pan-regional trade and connectivity regime with Central Asian members as a focal point. The prospects of peace in Afghanistan after the hasty US withdrawal could accelerate the pivot to Asia as the landlocked strategic country is the geographic linchpin of economic integration. SCO’s staunch efforts to craft a joint front towards pressing issues such as insurgency, separatism, the volatile situation of Afghanistan, and smooth implementation of connectivity projects debunk myths regarding the budding military alliance.

On the contrary, the inclusion of another major regional power, Iran, recently, in the SCO Council of Heads anchored the bloc’s standing as a symbol of a multipolar world order. Xi Jinping brilliantly articulated the spirit of solidarity in the 15th meeting of the Council of Heads of States “It is my conviction that by upholding the Shanghai Spirit and acting with unity and mutual support, we will surely enable the SCO to grow from strength and make new strides in a new historical stage”

The geopolitical context of SCO formation revolved around long-standing border disputes, confidence building among regional countries, and the promotion of multilateralism. As the politico-economic clout of its original founding members increased, the forum was largely seen as an instrument of balance of power against Western exceptionalism.  The rise of global militant threats and extremist proxies bequeathed another chance of unity to SCO members in 1998.

This institutionalized security cooperation strengthened strategic partnerships and finally resulted in the establishment of a Regional Anti-Terrorist structure. The initial agenda of economic cooperation was transformed into multi-billion dollar infrastructural projects, and an inter-bank consortium was established to finance these regional connectivity projects. Amid the promising rise of the SCO, Indian intransigence inflicted a debilitating blow to the broader idea of multilateralism last year, as Modi’s obduracy limited the agenda in the summit chair.

Under New Delhi’s rotational watch, last year’s virtual SCO summit emphasized a callous disregard for the core efforts of the organization and asymmetrically focused on cultural facets of a forum: start-ups and innovation, ayurvedic remedies, youth empowerment, and recognition of shared Buddhist heritage. Indian confrontational approach against Xi’s notion of a “Community of common destiny” is a deliberate attempt to frustrate the multilateral spirit of SCO.

Against this background of multi-layered interaction between regional and global politics, the 24th meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO in Astana might prove to be a watershed moment in the steering of the bloc from ideologically driven security divergences toward action-based collaboration.

The multi-vector foreign policy of Kazakhstan is an attempt to untie collective strength toward inclusive multifaceted collaboration by SCO that can leave a momentous mark on the global stage.

Remembering the fact that this Central Asian country was a place where the project of the century, the “Belt and Road Initiative,” was proposed, the latest summit could infuse impetus into connectivity projects that would transform landlocked regions into trade hubs.

Astana Times revealed that Kazakhstan would submit a draft of the World Unity for Just Peace and Harmony as it looks to unify efforts to find peaceful solutions to simmering conflicts in the region, with geopolitical rivalry continuing unabated. The area has been burning with the trio of terrorism, separatism, and terrorism, and it hit members of Pakistan and Russia hard with terror attacks. So, security coordination may also emerge as the lynchpin issue at the Astana summit.

Underlining unique diplomatic breakthroughs, SCO has gathered keen global attention as it provides the example of a harmonious agenda despite varied models of governance, different cultural contexts, civilizational foundations, foreign policy objectives that are independent, and diverging models of development among its members. There are systemic attempts to brand SCO as an anti-West strategic alliance or Asian NATO though the bloc’s discussions have repeatedly called for a new type of international order based on equity, harmony, and economic integration. If, prior to its summit, the bloc had outlined a plan to increase the share of national currencies in bilateral trade between members, this paradigm shift could be taken unaccounted for by the US. Openness has been a defining feature of SCO since its inception.

Singaporean ex-diplomat and author Kishore Mahbubani has elegantly narrated that the Asian Century, the Eurasian Century, is already on, as Eurasia integration is spurred by BRI, AIIB, SCO, EAEU, and Russia-China strategic partnership.

SCO solidarity blatantly negates the zero-sum geopolitics and camp-based confrontation as it attempts to meticulously streamline divergent strategic calculus towards a cohesive regional community. In such times of geopolitical upheaval where diplomacy has been put on the back burner and several theaters of war pose grave threats to humanity, multilateral efforts reflect only viable silver linings. With its growing sphere of influence, demographic might, and ambitious agenda, SCO’s charm offensive will be poised to impart significant ramifications worldwide.

US Indo-Pacific Strategy and Maritime Security Challenges of Pakistan

By
Shahzad Masood Roomi
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From the Western Coast of the US to the Eastern maritime borders of India, 52% of the total world surface area lies in India, and it has formed the single largest geopolitical region in the world, i.e., the Indo-Pacific region. This demarcation divides the Indian Ocean in half; if we consider the entire Indian Ocean Region (IOR) in the Indo-Pacific, it encompasses an even bigger part of the world. In that case, it included almost all the littoral nations of Asia, Eastern Africa, and North Western America in this region.

Through its Indo-Pacific Strategy, the US has laid out an alliance-based military plan for consolidating control over the maritime domain in this entire region, which, according to this declared strategy, is a key component of the “Containment of China” policy. 

The US maintains a considerable military presence in this region through naval and military aviation bases, with around 375,000 troops. Spread across the region, the US military maintains and uses 66 major military installations, and more are being built.[1] The US is looking to increase this military infrastructure in the region by building new military sites owned by the US or in allied nations.

Japan and South Korea have been housing US forces for many decades, and new facilities are being built in the Philippines and Australia. Under the Indo-Pacific strategy, the US has entered major strategic alliances with Australia, Japan, and India. Since 2020, the US has spent nearly $9 billion on developing new military infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific, where China has been declared a peer competitor in great power competition.[2]

The geopolitical goals of the US became clearer when “The 2022 National Security Strategy” document was released by the White House which declared the Indo-Pacific region the “epicentre of 21st-century geopolitics”[3] and the “2022 National Defense Strategy” document, published by Department of Defense (DoD), specifically pointed towards the attempts by China to “refashion the Indo-Pacific region” as part of “the most comprehensive and serious challenge to U.S. national security.”[4]

US decision to rename the US Pacific Command (USPACOM) to Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) in 2018 gave the first signs of changing US policy towards the region. Not only did this decision combine the Pacific and Indian Oceans under INDOPACOM, but it also increased the relevance of Indian IOR in global politics. This is where this new strategy of the US becomes an important strategic consideration for Pakistan from not only defence but also from a diplomatic perspective.

India is part of two strategic alliances of the US in the region, and both are poised to deter the rise of China in the South China Sea and its ingress into IOR through the so-called “String of Pearls” strategy.

QUAD and AUKUS alliances have dominant military components integrated within their respective scopes. The US is also mulling to expand both alliances by incorporating more regional allies like Japan and South Korea. All these US overtures are triggering a response from Beijing, which has created an environment described by multiple geopolitical experts as Cold War 2.0, taking place all along the Pacific rim of the Indian Ocean[5]. Another set of experts has described it as Hot Peace rather than a new Cold War. [6]

Beijing has responded to this US Indo-Pacific Strategy with a renewed military modernization drive. Consequently, in terms of the number of surface vessels, PLAN has become the world’s largest navy (USN is still the largest navy in terms of total tonnage), comprising three aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, large destroyers, countless frigates, and conventional attack submarines, and it is inducting more every year.

This maritime buildup competition from both sides is unfolding exactly how during World War II, US professor of international relations Nicholas Spykman predicted in his book during the last years of the war. He predicted a contest between the US and an Asian power to control the Eurasian Rimland (Littoral nations of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans) as global power dynamics would be decided by the fact who controls these lands.

He identified these regions as key geostrategy hotspots when he sketched the world’s geopolitical map and identified that the littoral nations of Eurasian Rimland will control global power dynamics. Interestingly, Europe and the Far East are part of the greater Eurasian Rimland, two key geostrategic regions where the US can prevail as a dominant military, economic, and diplomatic force.[7] Both India and Pakistan are part of Spykman’s rimland, and so are China and the entire Far East Asia. This explains the US’s interest in this part of the world.

For Pakistan, this rapidly unfolding great power competition scenario in the rimland is important from a maritime security perspective due to Indian involvement. India is building its blue water capabilities to be part of these grand strategic alliances, creating a balance of power crisis in the Arabian Sea (Part of greater IOR). Once acquired, India will certainly not keep these blue water capabilities at its eastern maritime border, which forms the westernmost border of the Indo-Pacific as per US classification.

The Indian Navy has taken many such steps in the Middle East and Africa (building listening stations, leasing foreign seaports, etc.), prompting Pakistan to contemplate ways to maintain the balance of power for peace to prevail.

Apart from India, the main protagonists of great power competition, the US and China, are Pakistan’s close strategic allies. Their enmity will drag the region into an arms race and put Pakistan in a difficult diplomatic predicament, prompting it to choose a bloc and lose either its net security provider (China) or its largest export destination (USA).

Geopolitical scenarios can unfold quickly in an age of growing regional integration and global power competition. Pakistan must reinvigorate ties with regional partners to take a collective stand and build sizeable military capabilities to protect its strategic interests.

End Notes:

[1] Nicastro. US defense infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific: Background and Issues for Congress. 2023.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47589

[2] Nicastro.

[3] “National Security Strategy”, The White House, October 2022, p. 37. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wpcontent/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf

[4] “National Defense Strategy”, Department of Defense, October 2022, p. 4.  https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-national-defense-strategy-npr-mdr.pdf

[5] Zizek, Slavoj. “From Cold War to Hot Peace.” The Peninsula Foundation, March 27, 2022. https://www.thepeninsula.org.in/2022/03/27/from-cold-war-to-hot-peace/

[6] Irigoyen, Antonio Nájera. “From Cold War to Hot Peace.” (2020): 1472-1475.

[7] Sempa, Francis P. “Nicholas Spykman and the Struggle for the Asiatic Mediterranean.” The Diplomat (2015).
https://thediplomat.com/2015/01/nicholas-spykman-and-the-struggle-for-the-asiatic-mediterranean/

 

The Path to a Peace Process in the War In Ukraine Through The Shadows Of Moral Asymmetry

By
Professor Alexander Kostyuk
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One year ago, Foreign Affairs published an article by Samuel Charap, a fellow and analyst at the RAND Corporation, who has been a foreign policy adviser to the White House for many years. The article highlighted the main challenges that the end of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent peaceful negotiation process may face.

Among the main challenges to the peace process, Samuel Charap rightly identified the so-called “moral asymmetry” that has been accumulated since the beginning of the full-scale invasion by statements from the two main participants – Ukraine and Russia. The accumulated expectations for the end of the war, especially on the Ukrainian side, such as the protection of not only state sovereignty and independence, which has actually already happened but also the full restoration of territorial integrity by military means, along with the amount of moral damage caused to the people of Ukraine by Russian aggression, make direct negotiations on ending the war between Ukraine and Russia virtually impossible.

Simply put, the representatives of Ukraine and Russia have no moral right to sit down at a common negotiating table – a huge and painful moral asymmetry has widened the gap in the direct negotiation and peace process between the two sides.

Is there a way out of this situation? A recent statement by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Mr. Kuleba, suggests there is.

Thus, Kuleba notes that in the current situation of huge moral asymmetry between the two sides, the negotiation process and the subsequent peace process can be implemented based on the model of the grain agreement between Ukraine and Russia signed in 2022. Despite the ongoing war, this agreement has been implemented quite successfully for two years.

The peculiarity of the grain deal is that Ukraine and Russia do not have direct contact during the negotiations. Communications between them are carried out through the other two parties to the agreement, Turkey and the UN, which first agreed on the agreement’s text with each party separately and then separately collected the signatures of the participants to the agreement.

In general, this is a fairly effective negotiation model, and it was implemented quite effectively at the level of the grain agreement. This raises several important questions. First, who should be the other parties to this agreement, acting as mediators in the negotiations? Second, what should be the main platform for this kind of negotiation process to gain support for the peace process from most countries of the world, together with the main geopolitical players? Perhaps peace summits?

The peace summit held in Switzerland in June this year did not answer this question. Still, given the formation of two camps on the conditions for ending the war, the most reliable would be the representation of developed Western countries and countries of the Global South. Will the leaders of both groups of countries- the United States and China- take on this role? In terms of influencing the course of the negotiation process, yes, they will.

But who will technically be represented by such negotiators? Probably, getting an answer to this question is also the task of peace summits, which should demonstrate progress in the peace process and revive diplomacy as a security mechanism that was abandoned after the end of the Cold War.

It is difficult to overestimate the role of the United States in the peace process. Ben Rhodes, in a recent article in Foreign Affairs, made a fairly meaningful attempt to summarize the Biden administration’s foreign policy strategy, identifying three main foreign policy challenges:

“Washington must recognize that all three fault lines of global conflict today—Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel, and China-Taiwan—run across territories just beyond the reach of U.S. treaty obligations. In other words, these are not areas where the American people have been prepared to go to war directly. With little public support and no legal obligation to do that, Washington should not count on bluffing or military buildups alone to resolve these issues; instead, it will have to focus relentlessly on diplomacy, buttressed by reassurance to frontline partners that there are alternative pathways to achieving security”.

This request for meaningful diplomacy should form the basis for ending the war in Ukraine and further negotiations. At the same time, the United States must demonstrate its geopolitical leadership by participating in Ukraine’s future:

“In Ukraine, the United States and Europe should focus on protecting and investing in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government—drawing Ukraine into European institutions, sustaining its economy, and fortifying it for lengthy negotiations with Moscow so that time works in Kyiv’s favor”.

President Biden has almost 7 months in spare to put in practice this foreign policy. Else, as mentioned in another recent article in Foreign Affairs by Robert C. O’Brien:

“Trump, for his part, has made clear that he would like to see a negotiated settlement to the war that ends the killing and preserves the security of Ukraine.”

Likely, it will not be so difficult for Trump to implement the process of ending the war in Ukraine, including the one mentioned above by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba, because Trump, unlike President Biden, has not contributed to increasing moral asymmetry, i.e., he has not made statements that would emphasize the overwhelming importance of military instruments to end the war.

Trump has much more room for maneuver in the implementation of the peace process in Ukraine than Biden, who is bound by previous statements of a rather bellicose nature.

Strobe Talbot, the advisor to President Clinton, recalled Condoleezza Rice, in a number of a conversations he had with her at Stanford, remarking casuistically that “the namelessness of the nineties bespoke the timelessness of American policy in that period – i.e., the Clinton administration’s policy.” Now we are all witnessing that the aimlessness of American policy in the nineties, with a plethora of deferred security problems, including those around Ukraine, is emphasizing the role of dynamic, powerful, and forward-looking US diplomacy in systematically addressing complex geopolitical challenges, including the war in Ukraine, fueled by the significant moral asymmetry of its main participants.

 

Pakistan’s Multi-Faceted Approach to 5GW

By
Sohail Javed
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Nations today face threats that are unconventional and complex, extending into the realms of information, cyber, and psychological domains.

In the modern era, warfare has evolved far beyond the traditional battlefields of land, sea, and air. Nations today face threats that are unconventional and complex, extending into the realms of information, cyber, and psychological domains. Pakistan, a country with a rich history of geopolitical significance, is currently navigating the treacherous waters of what is known as fifth-generation warfare (5GW). This form of conflict is not characterized by the conventional weapons of war but by the strategic use of information, cyber-attacks, and psychological operations to achieve political and military objectives.

Fifth-generation warfare is a term used to describe a blend of tactics that aim to disrupt and dismantle a nation’s stability through non-kinetic means. Unlike previous generations of warfare, which relied on physical force and direct confrontations, 5GW employs sophisticated techniques to influence public perception, manipulate information, and exploit vulnerabilities in a nation’s digital infrastructure. This type of warfare often involves state and non-state actors and operates in a shadowy domain where attribution is challenging. The primary goal is to weaken the adversary from within, creating chaos and confusion without the need for a direct military confrontation.

Pakistan’s challenges in this new warfare landscape are multifaceted. Cyber warfare has become a significant threat, with numerous cyber-attacks aimed at compromising critical infrastructure, government systems, and financial institutions. These attacks often originate from hostile entities seeking to destabilize the country’s economy and governance.

The rise of cyber espionage and hacking groups has further complicated Pakistan’s security landscape. The need for robust cybersecurity measures is more pressing than ever, as these attacks can have far-reaching consequences on national security and public trust.

Information warfare, another crucial component of 5GW, involves the battle for hearts and minds. Pakistan faces a constant barrage of misinformation and propaganda, both from internal and external sources. These campaigns aim to sow discord, create mistrust in the government, and fuel sectarian and ethnic tensions. Social media platforms, in particular, have become battlegrounds for spreading fake news and inflammatory content. The rapid dissemination of false information can lead to public unrest and undermine the legitimacy of state institutions. Countering this requires a proactive approach, including media literacy campaigns and stringent regulations on digital content.

Psychological operations target the morale and cohesion of a society. Pakistan has witnessed attempts to undermine its social fabric through the spread of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. This includes orchestrated efforts to highlight and exacerbate social issues, political unrest, and economic challenges, thereby eroding public confidence in state institutions. These psychological tactics are designed to create an environment of perpetual anxiety and mistrust, weakening the nation’s resolve to confront its adversaries. Addressing these challenges necessitates strong leadership and transparent governance to reassure the public and maintain social stability.

Economic warfare is another facet of 5GW that Pakistan has to contend with. Economic destabilization through sanctions, trade restrictions, and financial manipulations can weaken a nation’s economy. Pakistan has experienced economic pressures that are often linked to broader geopolitical strategies aimed at limiting its growth and development. Building a resilient economy is crucial in countering these pressures. This involves diversifying the economic base, strengthening trade relations, and pursuing policies that promote sustainable development.

Economic stability is a key pillar in maintaining national security and resilience against external threats.

In response to these multifaceted threats, Pakistan has undertaken several measures to strengthen its resilience against fifth-generation warfare. Enhanced cybersecurity is a top priority. Pakistan has been investing in improving its cybersecurity infrastructure to protect against cyber-attacks. This includes the establishment of dedicated cyber units within the military and law enforcement agencies, as well as collaborations with international partners to enhance cyber defense capabilities. Developing a skilled workforce in cybersecurity is also essential to effectively counter and mitigate the impact of cyber threats.

Counter-disinformation campaigns are another crucial strategy. Recognizing the threat of misinformation, Pakistan has launched initiatives to counter fake news and propaganda. Efforts include monitoring and regulating social media content, promoting digital literacy, and conducting public awareness campaigns to help citizens discern credible information from falsehoods. Strengthening the credibility and transparency of official communication channels is vital in maintaining public trust and countering the effects of disinformation.

To mitigate the impact of psychological operations, Pakistan is focusing on initiatives that promote social cohesion and national unity. This includes addressing underlying social issues, fostering interfaith and interethnic harmony, and building trust in state institutions through transparent governance and effective communication.

Engaging with community leaders and civil society organizations can also play a pivotal role in maintaining social harmony and resilience against psychological operations.

Building economic resilience is another key component of Pakistan’s strategy. Pakistan is working to build a more resilient economy by diversifying its economic base, strengthening trade relations, and pursuing policies that promote sustainable development. Economic stability is crucial in countering the pressures of economic warfare. Implementing structural reforms, attracting foreign investment, and promoting innovation and entrepreneurship are essential steps towards achieving long-term economic resilience.

Pakistan’s struggle with fifth-generation warfare highlights the changing nature of modern conflicts. As adversaries employ more sophisticated and insidious tactics, nations must adapt and develop multifaceted strategies to protect their sovereignty and stability. The global community is increasingly recognizing the need for comprehensive strategies to address these unconventional threats. International cooperation, information sharing, and collective defense mechanisms are essential in combating the complex dynamics of 5GW.

ASEAN’s Journey to Water Security

By
Batool Akhtar
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Water scarcity is increasingly becoming a critical issue within the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region, posing significant challenges to sustainable development and regional stability.

Water scarcity is increasingly becoming a critical issue within the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region, posing significant challenges to sustainable development and regional stability. Comprising ten diverse countries with varying economic strengths and ecological conditions, ASEAN faces mounting pressures from population growth, climate change, and inadequate water management practices.

Across ASEAN, water scarcity manifests in different forms and intensities. Countries like Singapore, despite high economic development, struggle with limited natural freshwater resources. Conversely, nations like Indonesia and the Philippines face challenges due to inefficient distribution, pollution, and unsustainable usage practices. Climate change exacerbates these issues, altering rainfall patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. The Mekong River, a vital lifeline for several ASEAN countries, has witnessed reduced flow due to upstream damming and shifting precipitation patterns, adversely affecting agriculture, fisheries, and millions dependent on its waters. Rapid urbanization in cities like Bangkok, Jakarta, and Manila has spiked water demand, straining aging infrastructure and leading to pollution from industrial activities.

Groundwater over-extraction exacerbates issues like land subsidence and further depletes precious water reserves.

Water scarcity varies widely across ASEAN. While countries like Singapore have implemented advanced technologies and rigorous water management policies to mitigate shortages, others, such as Cambodia and Myanmar, lack sufficient infrastructure to meet growing water demands. Jakarta faces severe shortages and increased flooding risks due to groundwater depletion and subsidence, while Vietnam’s Mekong Delta grapples with salinity intrusion and reduced water flow, impacting vital agricultural activities.

In Indonesia, the capital city Jakarta exemplifies the stark realities of urban water scarcity. Despite being surrounded by abundant water bodies, Jakarta faces severe shortages due to rapid urbanization, over-extraction of groundwater, and poor infrastructure. The city’s reliance on groundwater has led to land subsidence, exacerbating flooding risks during monsoon seasons. The situation highlights the urgent need for sustainable water management practices and investments in infrastructure to safeguard urban water security.

Similarly, Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, a critical agricultural region known as the “rice bowl” of Southeast Asia, faces threats from upstream dam construction and climate change-induced salinity intrusion.

Reduced river flows jeopardize rice production and freshwater availability, impacting millions of livelihoods dependent on agriculture.

The environmental consequences of water scarcity are profound, with reduced river flows and degraded water quality threatening biodiversity and ecosystems. Socioeconomically, food security suffers as agriculture relies heavily on water for irrigation. Women and children often bear the burden of water collection in rural areas, affecting education and productivity. Urban areas experience disruptions and conflicts over dwindling water resources, while industries dependent on water face operational challenges, potentially slowing economic growth.

In rural Cambodia, for instance, access to clean water is a daily challenge for many communities. Limited infrastructure and water treatment facilities mean that rural populations often rely on untreated water sources, exposing them to waterborne diseases. The situation underscores the intersection of water scarcity with public health issues, highlighting the urgent need for improved water access and sanitation infrastructure in underserved regions.

Addressing ASEAN’s water scarcity demands a comprehensive approach. Integrated water resource management (IWRM) must become a priority, focusing on governance reforms, infrastructure investments, and efficient water use across sectors.

Technological innovations like desalination, water recycling, and smart water meters have proven effective in countries like Singapore, demonstrating scalable solutions that other ASEAN nations can adopt and customize.

Singapore’s success in water management serves as a model for the region. The city-state has implemented a robust strategy combining water conservation, diversified water sources, and advanced technologies. Initiatives such as NEWater, which purifies wastewater to produce high-grade reclaimed water, and desalination plants have significantly reduced Singapore’s reliance on imported water and enhanced water resilience.

Regional cooperation is crucial for managing transboundary water resources sustainably. Collaborative frameworks, especially for river basins like the Mekong, can ensure equitable water distribution and resilience against climate impacts. The Mekong River Commission, comprising Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam, exemplifies regional cooperation in water governance, promoting dialogue and joint management of the Mekong’s resources.

Public awareness campaigns are vital for promoting water conservation practices among citizens. Community-driven initiatives empower local populations to manage water sustainably, leveraging indigenous knowledge and practices.

Education and engagement foster a sense of responsibility and collective action in preserving this vital resource.

In Thailand, community-based water management initiatives have emerged as effective models for local engagement. Projects led by community organizations and supported by government agencies focus on sustainable water use, watershed management, and ecosystem conservation. These initiatives not only improve water availability but also strengthen community resilience to climate impacts and water-related hazards.

Water scarcity poses a complex challenge to ASEAN’s future development and stability. By prioritizing sustainable water management, embracing technological innovations, fostering regional cooperation, and engaging communities, ASEAN can mitigate the impacts of water scarcity. The region’s prosperity hinges on wise and equitable water management, ensuring that future generations inherit a resilient and water-secure ASEAN.

In confronting water scarcity, ASEAN has an opportunity to lead by example, demonstrating that collective action and innovation can safeguard water resources and sustain prosperity in the face of mounting global challenges. The journey towards water security requires commitment from governments, collaboration among stakeholders, and active participation from communities. Together, ASEAN can forge a path toward a sustainable water future, where water scarcity no longer impedes the region’s growth and prosperity.

Saudi Arabia’s Entry into the Digital Currency Revolution

By
Saba Kiran
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0
In a significant move marking the beginning of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) revolution, Saudi Arabia has become a full member of the mBridge project.

In a significant move marking the beginning of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) revolution, Saudi Arabia has become a full member of the mBridge project. This development opens doors for immediate, low-cost cross-border currency transactions, a capability Saudi Arabia plans to leverage for selling oil to China, potentially paving the way for the petroyuan.

CBDCs are digital forms of national currencies issued by central banks, distinct from cryptocurrencies but with full legal backing. They promise increased payment efficiency, crucial for international transactions notorious for their costliness and delays.

mBridge, launched in 2021 by the Bank for International Settlements’ Innovation Hub and several central banks, has reached its Minimum Viable Product (MVP) stage. It employs distributed ledger technology (DLT) to enable instant, universal CBDC transfers, challenging SWIFT’s dominance in cross-border payments. The platform’s successful trials, including transactions worth $22 million, highlight its readiness for mid-2025 operational rollout.

mBridge’s potential to streamline transactions and reduce costs positions it as a game-changer in global finance.

Saudi Arabia’s integration into mBridge underscores a broader shift away from traditional USD-dominated transactions. The platform’s capability to facilitate CBDC transactions, particularly in currencies like the yuan, signals a potential challenge to the dollar’s supremacy in global trade, especially in commodities such as oil. China’s recent use of digital yuan for oil purchases at the Shanghai Petroleum Exchange exemplifies this trend, showcasing its commitment to internationalizing the yuan. This move, alongside mBridge’s emergence, suggests a gradual but significant recalibration of global financial dynamics.

mBridge’s emergence as an alternative to SWIFT addresses longstanding criticisms of the latter’s inefficiency and sanction-enforcement role. By allowing central banks to manage their own sanctions lists, mBridge promises greater flexibility and resistance to geopolitical pressures compared to SWIFT’s centralized control. The platform’s ability to facilitate transactions without relying on USD as an intermediary reduces exposure to risks associated with sanctions and currency fluctuations. This feature is particularly appealing to countries seeking to diversify their financial dependencies and assert more autonomy in global economic interactions.

While the immediate impact of the petroyuan and mBridge on dollar dominance may be limited, their disruptive potential cannot be underestimated. As more countries explore CBDCs and join platforms like mBridge, the evolution towards a multipolar currency system gains momentum. CBDCs offer benefits beyond transactional efficiency, including enhanced financial inclusion and security.

By digitizing national currencies, central banks can potentially improve monetary policy effectiveness and mitigate risks associated with cash-based economies.

The shift towards CBDCs and platforms like mBridge is not limited to China and Saudi Arabia. Countries across the globe, from the BRICS nations to smaller economies in the Global South, are actively exploring or piloting CBDC initiatives. These developments reflect a broader desire to modernize financial infrastructures and reduce reliance on traditional banking systems dominated by Western institutions. In Latin America, for instance, countries like Brazil are evaluating CBDCs as tools for financial inclusion and stability. In Africa, where mobile money has already revolutionized financial services, CBDCs offer potential solutions to enhance cross-border trade and investment flows.

While the technological promise of CBDCs is clear, their widespread adoption faces significant regulatory and interoperability challenges. Harmonizing regulatory frameworks across jurisdictions, ensuring data privacy, and managing systemic risks are critical considerations for central banks and policymakers. Moreover, the integration of CBDCs into existing financial ecosystems requires careful planning to avoid disruption and ensure a seamless transition.

Collaborative efforts between central banks, financial institutions, and technology providers will be essential in navigating these complexities and maximizing the benefits of digital currencies.

For the United States, the rise of CBDCs and platforms like mBridge poses strategic challenges. Historically, the USD has enjoyed hegemonic status as the global reserve currency, bolstered by its use in international trade and finance. However, the advent of CBDCs introduces alternatives that could erode this dominance over time. To maintain its influence, the US will need to adapt to the evolving financial landscape by promoting innovation in digital finance while safeguarding its economic interests. Collaboration with allies and partners to develop interoperable CBDC frameworks could mitigate risks and foster a more resilient global financial system.

Saudi Arabia’s participation in the mBridge project marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of global finance. By embracing CBDCs and platforms designed to facilitate cross-border transactions, countries are signaling a readiness to explore alternatives to traditional banking systems and enhance financial sovereignty. While challenges remain in terms of regulatory alignment, technological integration, and geopolitical implications, the momentum toward CBDC adoption is undeniable. As more countries leverage digital currencies for international trade and investment, the global financial landscape is set to undergo a profound transformation. Ultimately, the success of initiatives like mBridge will hinge on their ability to deliver on promises of efficiency, security, and inclusivity in global finance. As stakeholders navigate this new era, collaboration and innovation will be key to unlocking the full potential of CBDCs and reshaping the future of money.

The SCO’s Influence on the Modern World System

By
Dr. Sahibzada Muhammad Usman and Fatime Mehdi
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0
Evolution is an inevitable process, and despite the efforts of those in world politics, it is impossible to halt its progress.

Evolution is an inevitable process, and despite the efforts of those in world politics, it is impossible to halt its progress. After the Second World War, the neo-demographic system collapsed, leading to a prolonged period of conflict between two contrasting economic systems: capitalism and communism. Eventually, the Soviet Union dissolved, marking the end of that era. Now, the world finds itself in a new phase of economic conditions. As a new era of global politics dawns, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) emerges as a crucial player in this transformation.

The upcoming SCO summit is a significant event, given the organization’s growing influence. It is essential to understand the implications of every move made by the SCO, as it plays a pivotal role in the emerging global political landscape. Led by China, the SCO aims to challenge the notion of global dominance by a single power, instead advocating for a multipolar world through the establishment of similar organizations. To comprehend these evolutionary strategic changes, it is necessary to analyze the conditions under which they are occurring, the current state of the world system, and the foundational principles that should underpin the new global order.

The post-World War II system is perceived as a successor to the colonial era, characterized by indirect control rather than direct policies of direct occupation. The powerful countries often exert influence over developing nations through economic means, ensuring that these nations remain within their sphere of influence.

As a result, developing countries frequently feel entrapped by strategies designed to keep them under control. This dynamic is reminiscent of the metaphor of elephants fighting, where the grass gets trampled.

To maintain hegemony, powerful nations frequently intervene in the economic affairs of developing countries. They employ various strategies to prevent these nations from achieving economic independence. This intervention often leads to industrial decline and economic stagnation, as the developing countries are unable to break free from the grip of the more powerful nations. Furthermore, powerful countries sometimes sponsor separatism, extremism, and terrorism, disregarding established political ethics to maintain their dominance.

The post-World War II system, established by the Allied powers, has largely failed to create a fair and just global order. Institutions like the United Nations (UN) have been undermined, and their credibility eroded, as demonstrated by the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent decline in trust in the UN. The promises made by these institutions have often amounted to little, leaving developing countries disillusioned and distrustful of the global system.

In response to the failures of the post-World War II system, the SCO advocates for a new world order based on mutual trust, equality, and common development. The Shanghai Spirit embodies the principles of mutual respect, mutual benefit, and the protection of the rights of small and weak countries. It aims to ensure that these countries are not overwhelmed by force or coercion.

The SCO’s primary objective is to take joint measures to protect the common interests of its member states, enabling them to achieve strategic autonomy. This goal includes making external intervention in the region a thing of the past and addressing security issues through mutual cooperation.

The SCO envisions a world where countries collaborate to resolve their differences and work together towards regional security and development.

China’s Global Security Initiative serves as a leading framework for achieving this goal. The initiative encourages SCO member countries to resolve their differences collectively and to work together towards regional security. By fostering mutual trust and cooperation, the SCO aims to create a more stable and secure environment for its member states.

The SCO holds particular significance for Pakistan, as both Pakistan and India are members of the organization. For the SCO to achieve its objectives, it is crucial for India to engage sincerely in resolving its issues with Pakistan. Likewise, Pakistan must carefully consider its diplomatic relations to ensure that its commitment to the SCO does not result in distancing itself from other nations. This balance is challenging but not insurmountable.

For Pakistan, the SCO offers an opportunity to engage in a framework that prioritizes mutual trust and cooperation. It provides a platform for Pakistan to address its security concerns and to work towards regional stability. However, this commitment should not lead to a complete severance of ties with other countries.

Instead, Pakistan must navigate its relationships carefully, ensuring that it remains committed to the SCO while maintaining its diplomatic engagements with other nations.

Similarly, India must recognize the importance of the SCO and its principles of mutual respect and cooperation. By engaging sincerely with Pakistan and other member countries, India can contribute to the stability and security of the region. The SCO offers a platform for India to demonstrate its commitment to regional peace and development.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization represents a significant shift towards a new global order based on mutual trust, equality, and common development. As the SCO continues to grow in influence, it is essential to understand its actions and the implications for the current world system. The SCO’s commitment to strategic autonomy, regional security, and the protection of the rights of all member countries offers a promising framework for a more just and equitable global order.

The upcoming summit will be a critical moment in the ongoing evolution of global politics. It will provide an opportunity for the SCO to demonstrate its commitment to its principles and to outline its vision for the future. As the world continues to evolve, the SCO will play a crucial role in shaping the new global order, ensuring that the rights of small and weak countries are protected and that mutual trust and cooperation are the guiding principles of international relations.

The dawn of this new era in global politics is an opportunity for the world to move beyond the failures of the past and embrace a future based on mutual respect and collaboration. The SCO’s vision of a multipolar world, where countries work together to address common challenges, offers a path towards a more just and peaceful global order. As the SCO continues to grow in influence, it will be essential to remain vigilant and to understand the implications of its actions, ensuring that the principles of the Shanghai Spirit guide the future of international relations.

The Unstoppable Rise of Biotechnology

By
Naila Ahmed
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The Unstoppable Rise of Biotechnology

Biotechnology is an exciting and rapidly evolving field that has seen remarkable progress since the discovery of the structure of DNA in the 1950s. Its applications span multiple sectors, with particularly profound impacts on agriculture and health. The development of biotechnology has revolutionized our approach to problems in these fields, offering innovative solutions that were unimaginable just a few decades ago.

From 2000 the biotechnology sector in Pakistan saw significant advancements. The establishment of the National Commission for Biotechnology, led by the renowned biotechnologist Dr. Anwar Naseem, marked a pivotal moment for the country. This commission funded numerous projects, leading to a rapid increase in scientific publications from Pakistan. Centers such as the National Institute of Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering and the Nuclear Institute of Agriculture and Biology in Faisalabad, operating under the Atomic Energy Commission, played crucial roles in developing improved varieties of crops like cotton and wheat through biotechnological means.

At the heart of biotechnology lies DNA, or deoxyribonucleic acid, which is the molecule that carries the genetic instructions for life. DNA can be visualized as a long, twisted ladder composed of four types of nucleotide bases, which form the “letters,” “words,” and “sentences” that dictate cellular functions, growth, and reproduction. Human DNA consists of approximately 3 billion base pairs, which encode the information necessary for building and maintaining our bodies.

DNA is found in almost every cell and is inherited from our parents, determining traits ranging from physical characteristics to susceptibility to certain diseases. Essentially, DNA is the biological code that defines every living organism.

Genetic engineering is a cornerstone of agricultural biotechnology, allowing scientists to alter an organism’s DNA to achieve desired traits. This technique has led to the development of genetically modified (GM) crops with numerous advantages. For example, Bt corn and cotton have been engineered to produce toxins that target harmful insects, significantly reducing crop losses and increasing yields. Similarly, virus-resistant papaya has revived papaya production in Hawaii, and herbicide-resistant soybean crops allow farmers to manage weeds more effectively without harming the crops. These innovations not only increase agricultural productivity but also reduce the reliance on chemical pesticides, promoting a more sustainable approach to farming.

Biotechnology also enhances the nutritional value of crops. For instance, Golden Rice has been genetically modified to produce beta-carotene, a precursor to vitamin A, addressing vitamin deficiencies in many populations. This biofortification strategy holds great promise for improving public health, especially in developing countries where vitamin A deficiency is prevalent. Moreover, molecular markers, which are segments of DNA linked to specific traits, have accelerated the development of new plant varieties with desirable characteristics. This technology improves breeding efficiency by enabling the selection of plants with desired traits at the seedling stage, reducing the time required for traditional breeding methods.

Drought-tolerant and disease-resistant rice varieties developed using molecular markers are prime examples of this advancement, ensuring food security in regions prone to environmental stresses.

In the health sector, genetic engineering has been used to correct genetic disorders and develop innovative therapies. Gene therapy, which involves introducing, removing, or altering genetic material in a patient’s cells, has shown promise in treating diseases such as spinal muscular atrophy. This condition, which affects motor neuron development, has seen significant improvements through the use of gene therapy, offering hope to many patients and their families. Additionally, gene-editing technologies like CRISPR-Cas9 enable precise modifications to the DNA sequence, offering potential treatments for genetic disorders like cystic fibrosis and sickle cell anemia. CRISPR is also being explored in advanced cancer treatments, where genetically modified immune cells can better recognize and attack cancer cells. These therapies represent a new frontier in personalized medicine, where treatments are tailored to the genetic profile of individual patients.

Biotechnology has significantly advanced vaccine development, leading to the creation of safer and more effective vaccines. The development of mRNA vaccines, which use synthetic mRNA to instruct cells to produce viral antigens, has been a groundbreaking innovation. The rapid development and deployment of mRNA vaccines by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna during the Covid-19 pandemic highlighted their potential.

These vaccines not only provided a swift response to the pandemic but also demonstrated the versatility and scalability of mRNA technology, paving the way for future vaccines against a range of infectious diseases.

Stem cell therapy, another promising branch of biotechnology, aims to restore function in damaged tissues and organs. Stem cells, with their ability to differentiate into various cell types, hold the potential for treating conditions such as spinal cord injuries and heart disease by regenerating damaged tissues. For example, stem cell therapy could potentially regenerate damaged neurons in spinal cord injuries or repair heart tissue damaged by myocardial infarction. Additionally, biotechnology is paving the way for bioengineered organs and tissues, potentially addressing the shortage of donor organs. Advances in tissue engineering and regenerative medicine offer the possibility of growing organs in the lab, which could revolutionize transplantation and save countless lives.

While the benefits of biotechnology in agriculture and health are numerous, they also raise ethical and social concerns. The safety and environmental impact of GM crops are debated, including issues related to allergenic potential, gene flow to wild relatives, and the development of resistant insects and weeds. These concerns highlight the need for rigorous regulatory frameworks and continuous monitoring to ensure that GM crops do not pose unforeseen risks to ecosystems and human health. Similarly, the use of gene-editing technologies like CRISPR in humans prompts ethical questions about genetic modifications, unintended consequences, and the possibility of “designer babies.” The prospect of editing human embryos to enhance certain traits raises significant ethical dilemmas about the limits of scientific intervention and the potential for social inequality.

What Is The Future Of The Media In The Age Of AI?

By
Mehr F Husain
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0

The Reuters Institute for the Study Of Journalism recently released its Digital News Report which focused on the current environment within which publishers are operating and how they are connecting with readers.

The report analysed the impact of artificial intelligence and it could potentially alter the way information is shared, consumed and created.

Broadly speaking, the research shows that social media platforms such as Facebook and X are slowly but surely moving away from traditional news-related content especially when it comes to referrals back to publishers. As text consumption decreases, there is the rise of visual content in the form of varying-length videos that are watched on YouTube, TikTok and Instagram.

The report will come as a revelation, especially with the realisation that the democratisation of the internet has shaped how content is created as the perception of creating content for like-minded individuals and friends has changed to creating content for anyone and everyone. The opening up of a global audience is giving rise to a glaring need to rethink how engagement in the digital realm is to take place and how publishers can stay relevant.

Key takeaways:

  1. There is a media funding crisis. Rising costs, falling revenues and decreasing flow of traffic (to the website and social media platforms) have resulted in media entities shutting down, downsizing and cutting costs. The worrisome part is all of this has exposed the media to government and business entities both of which are influencing media ideologies and what constitutes content.
  2. There is a massive chasm between what consumers want and what publishers are providing. This is where we are seeing the rise of ‘individual journalism’ where more and more people are taking to the digital realm to create their ‘own’ news. This means that as consumers watch individualistic takes, media entities result in becoming irrelevant or weaken as traffic falls.
  3. Video content is rising. YouTube is used by almost a 1/3 of the global sample (6 continents, 47 markets) and TikTok users outdo X (formerly known as Twitter). This does not mean text is irrelevant but that video is increasingly being consumed.
  4. The rise of video is due to 3 major reasons:
    • If you can see it, you can believe it. Videos by individuals who are not necessarily associated with a media entity are believed more as they are seen as being unedited and free from any bias.
    • Easy to consume. Videos are convenient in terms of being delivered especially on platforms that you follow or are subscribed to.
    • The varied perspectives. People are tired of the same old faces, the usual TV show hosts, authors, and columnists. This is also fuelled by a deep mistrust of what is seen as ‘liberal’ agendas which is giving rise to more right-wing perspectives.
  1. Publishers are caught in between technological and behaviour changes which means Meta and Google are also facing challenges in a realm where AI is shaping the news ecosystem.
  2. With advertising revenues on the decline, it appears only a minority (17% of the global sample) are willing to pay for news and the majority (57%) would not consider paying anything.
  3. The rise of alternative voices is prevalent on sites such as TikTok and Instagram whereas mainstream media and popular journalists are more likely to use Facebook and X but still face stiff competition. There is however a difference emerging between journalists and online personalities.
  4. There is a difference between staying informed (which is when people want the news to provide facts) and learning (where people want to be educated or updated). While the need to remain informed is there, clearly it is no longer enough as people want an explanation of the information being put out as well as an analysis.
  5. While there is a sense of wariness when it comes to AI, there seems to be some level of acceptance in terms of experiences using news and access to information. There is resistance to the use of AI concerning public-facing content and sensitive information. There is an overall consensus that human beings should be present and complete automation is off limits.
  6. Due to low trust in the media, publishers will need to be extremely careful how AI is used to avoid losing trust on the part of the consumer completely. It is clear that when emotion, judgment and connection is needed, AI will not be accepted and a human being will have to be at the front and centre.
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