Imran Khan, Extremism, Social Fragmentation And the Only Alternative

October 11, 2024

A spectacular failure to achieve the ill-defined destructive goals of “Project Imran” and a frightening creation of the fascist force leading to sociopolitical fragmentation mean Pakistan is now in a vortex. The current scenario limits its ability to tackle a plethora of challenges which are already complicated by the elements associated with Imran Khan, the incarcerated PTI founding chairman.

We need to find a solution because it has been nurtured as a social phenomenon. You can’t just wait and see. Procrastination is a national habit, but this approach has always produced devastating results by worsening the state of affairs.

Also read: Pakistan Whither? Where Do We Go From Here?

So, what is the problem?

The mindset groomed and solidified into a cult called the PTI has penetrated deep into the society and the state, requiring an urgent action which is already delayed for the reasons that must be explained. It only represents either a wrong belief that the things would eventually return to normal or a strategy that society should remain divided.

Ironically, this projection of the playboy cricketer came at a time when the newscasters were forced to wear headscarves “dupatta” on their heads.

But just like any other issue or disease, treatment requires a proper diagnosis to understand its origins.

THE FANTASY:

Imran Khan was presented as a poster boy by Ziaul Haq to promote a soft image at a time when he was radicalizing the society through an unending Islamization process. Hindsight suggests Zia was absolutely right and deserves recognition for his selection – not policies and actions – as Imran Khan proved to be a wonderful choice for advocating the cause of extremists and attracting the modernized urban upper middle and middle classes thanks to the backing of elite.

Ironically, this projection of the playboy cricketer came at a time when the newscasters were forced to wear headscarves “dupatta” on their heads, while the male and female actors in dramas kept a two-feet distance between themselves on PTV – the sole TV channel at that time.

Before moving forward, an example should be shared both on a lighter and serious note since it explains why we are here. It was the same period when Michael Jackson became a global star. However, we were barred from becoming a part of this process, as Zia persisted with imposing extremist thoughts not only through laws but also formal and informal education. Our heroes were all armed and were riding a horse while we lived in the 20th century. We had no room for anything related to the good old Industrial Revolution, forget about postmodernity.

As we missed the train, we were also not ready to take advantage of the globalization triggered by the fall of Berlin Wall and the dismemberment of the USSR after the death of Zia in a plane crash on Aug 17, 1988. Oh Gosh! We have missed so many trains since August 14, 1947.

Let’s come back to Imran Khan now.

Once you are in a limelight, you obviously become an attraction. The paucity of heroes in sports, music and other performing arts meant that Imran Khan had been developed into the only choice during 1980s and 90s.

Just imagine if we had access to Michael Jackson or produced our own versions of Michael Jackson, Al Pacino, Robert De Niro, Tom Cruise, Brad Pitt, Emma Thompson, Sharon Stone, Jodie Foster, Julia Roberts, or Meryl Streep.

Things would have been certainly different had we not faced this worst form of social engineering, as we opted for mainstreaming religious extremism.

We can find the origins of Imran Khan as a cricketer-cum-politician in the posh localities of Lahore and Islamabad.

It is in this backdrop that on March 25, 1992, when Pakistan won the ICC World Cup – an event that enabled the producers like Lt-Gen (R) Hameed Gul to cement Imran Khan’s case as a savior against the two “evils” – the Bhutto of Larkana and the Sharifs of Lahore. Afterall, Qazi Hussain Ahmed had failed miserably in the PIF (Pakistan Islamic Front) project – an attempt to replicate Algeria’s Islamic Salvation Front (PIF) – in the 1993 elections. The failure was so huge that the Jamaat-e-Islami hasn’t been unable to recover from the loss, resulting in its decline in electoral politics despite a huge boost given by the MMA – an alliance of religio-political parties formed in 2002.

THE ORIGIN:

Once you are in limelight, you are a star. In this case, Imran Khan was the only available star, as the playing field had been levelled in his favor. Thus, a romance began between the elite and Imran Khan, which was reinforced by their hate towards democracy.

That’s why we can find the origins of Imran Khan as a cricketer-cum-politician in the posh localities of Lahore and Islamabad. He met all of their conditions – an Oxford-educated man who speaks English fluently and doesn’t look desi [native] while partying with the British elite as a playboy.

And they found a natural ally in the shape of upper middle class which was a direct product of the economic system and also a beneficiary of globalization just like the elite, meaning that they had similar social and political views.

However, the circle expanded given that Pakistan’s urban middle classes, generally also have anti-democracy leanings and are religious in nature – in total contrast to the what we see in the developed world or in other developing countries.

Now, we must identify the reasons responsible for this trend.

THE EXPANSION:

Imran Khan’s influence among the paradoxical and hypocritical urban classes of all sorts is rooted in their social alienation and influence of the Islamization process. They found a messiah who represented their contradictions – modern but also a bigot, westernized lifestyles but also championing the cause of pseudo conservative cultural values, eulogizing the West for personal freedoms but also promoting fascism, calling for uprooting the system but also being its direct beneficiary, pleading the case for punishing the corrupt but also having a solid bond with the corrupt, so on and so forth.

Imran Khan’s influence among the paradoxical and hypocritical urban classes of all sorts is rooted in their social alienation and influence of the Islamization process.

It was a fascinating deal that offered everything to everyone. But again, the social alienation and the desire to become part of the affluent classes made them follow the rules and plans set by those living in the poshest of the posher neighborhoods of Lahore and Islamabad.

Also read: Address The Bullies Before They Become Frankensteins

One can’t miss the irony that the urban middle and upper middle classes – especially the professionals – complain about the corrupt system and the corrupt politicians, but are one of the most corrupt themselves. A cursory look at the FBR record will speak for themselves.

This hate towards democracy and admiration of the repressive cultural values – like Jirga and panchayat experienced by those living in rural and backward areas – for one reason or the other stem from the fact that Pakistan’s urban middle and upper middle classes are not a product of industrialization. By the time this article was being written, we are a still quasi-feudal, quasi-tribal society.

It leads us to a conclusion that there seems to be some serious problems with the educated and wealthy urban classes which are supposed to lead social transformation anywhere in the world. And the absence of a real generation gap in Pakistan’s society summarizes the state of affairs.

Yes! Pakistan has never really a generation gap, as one generation after another is transmitting the same old values and thus the same worldview to the younger minds.

Here an example should suffice. A study conducted by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) says 98.5% of the respondents had parents who are linguistically homogenous. We are not leaving the same old caste and creed practices.

And the PIDE study also show that “ethnic exogamy is more prevalent in urban Pakistan (1.9%) than rural” and “a slightly increasing trend for ethnic exogamy is observed with increasing education and income levels”.

Pakistan has never really a generation gap, as one generation after another is transmitting the same old values and thus the same worldview to the younger minds.

All these things prove why the urban educated classes prefer and admire Imran Khan who has the distinction of justifying and promoting social repression. Yes! He is the only one. Not a single political leader, and that too in mainstream politics, has ever pleaded the case for Jirga and panchayat. Not even any feudal or tribal leader had ever dared to do so in national politics.

Ask any of the Imran Khan’s supporter having an urban background about his or her views on Jirga and panchayat. He or she will endorse the leader while rejecting the very possibility of becoming part of the same cultural practices.

Someone with the same background once opined that there is nothing called forced marriage. We can list as a forced marriage only if a woman is ordered to marry against her will at gunpoint. These expert views shared by a multiple degree-holder woman are enough to explain a complete lack of knowledge about the dynamics of traditional society. It also shows what they think about the ordinary people.

Meanwhile, Imran Khan’s urban supporters also have favorable views about the Taliban.

Wait! But Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a stronghold of Imran Khan. How can one explain this phenomenon when it is the urban elite who introduced the idea of Imran Khan as the savior and others living in the cities followed the course? Doesn’t it mean the story narrated above is baseless?

No, it isn’t, unfortunately. It only reflects the wider audience Imran Khan has due to his contradictions.

THE PAKHTUNS:

You shouldn’t be surprised by the acceptance enjoyed by Imran Khan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa because it is a result of sociopolitical process which started with the Afghan jihad in 80s.

So, here is the story. The Afghan jihad meant creation of Mujahideen and the required mindset in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – along with the parts of north western Balochistan – as the project necessitated the involvement of Pakhtuns. It required a network of large and small madrassas. Although the same exercise was repeated in other parts of the country, the mutual affiliation among the Pashto-speaking population on both sides of the border affected Pakhtuns the most.

Initially, the religious parties represented this mindset at the political level. However, years of indoctrination started weakening the nationalist forces and national political parties in the province, previously known as NWFP. But the lack of appealing leadership allowed other political parties to enter the assemblies and form governments till 1990s, as this mindset hadn’t been congealed politically so far.

However, the MMA presented the first opportunity for vote consolidation in 2002. This electoral alliance comprising religio-political parties was able to form government on its own after winning 48 out of 98 seats while five independents also joined its ranks.

Five years of the MMA government in the province produced an environment where this mindset further flourished and started getting mainstreamed in the province.

Although the 2008 elections saw ANP leading the coalition provincial government, the Taliban terrorists targeted the party leaders and workers for their views during the period 2008-13. It is claimed that the ANP lost around 700 leaders and workers despite being in the government, as the erstwhile FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – the erstwhile NWFP renamed during the same period – faced the brunt of terrorism.

The full-fledged launch of Project Imran meant that a political force was being raised which wasn’t on the Taliban’s radar before the 2013 elections.

One of the reasons behind the MNA’s failure in 2008 was the imminent return of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto to power in Islamabad. However, she was martyred before the people could go to polls. At the same time, the religio-political parties were on an overall decline in electoral politics, as they remained unable to ensure a sustainable expansion their hardcore support base.

However, the full-fledged launch of Project Imran meant that a political force was being raised which wasn’t on the Taliban’s radar before the 2013 elections. While political leaders and workers of other parties – ANP, PPP and PML-N – restricted their activities due to constant threats, the PTI was slowly allowed to fill this vacuum. In this scenario, the things reached a point when the PTI wiped out others in 2018. Another case of levelling the playing field for one and only Imran Khan.

Also read: Populism Or Fascism? How Imran Khan’s Vendetta is Shaking Pakistan

It is in this backdrop Imran Khan emerged as a leader with the full backing of the power circles. This section of the society recognized him as an individual who praised and advocated the case of those influenced by the jihad process. Imran Khan is the culmination of a process that also led to the shrinking appeal of JUI-F as Jamaat-e-Islami because of the religious symbols used by him.

THE MODEL:

In honest retrospection, one can easily see that we as a people have tried to avoid addressing the basic question: how should we deal with extremism?

This denial obviously produced an approach that pushed us towards creating an environment when anything resembling to reasoning is blasphemous. Hence, we instead of reversing the social fragmentation caused by the unchecked spread of extremist thoughts, maintain the status quo. In fact, we even allowed entities like the TLP to prop up at a time when we were engaged in fighting the TTP and other terrorist organizations.

Therefore, we still somehow find a solution in Zakir Naik – a preacher who openly advocates the views similar to that of the Taliban and Al Qaeda – as a role model. Therefore, the rise of Imran Khan was a natural consequence of the continuous process.

Societies aren’t machines that can be operated from a dashboard. Once you unleash a social force, you can’t push a button to place it back in some storage room or change it automatically.

But who could be the model?

Honest answer? The very people we regularly contact for financial assistance – Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

One doesn’t need to go into the details of how the UAE has worked over the last five decades to develop as a society which is open socially with zero tolerance for extremism.

However, the transformation of Saudi Arabia under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is even more interesting case, as he has bulldozed the forces that could hamper the process.

THE SOLUTION:

One has to admit first that the extremism has been Pakistan’s main problem which the Imran Khan factor complicated by mainstreaming a brand of politics mixing fascism, extremism and terrorism. There is no other choice but to reprioritize the goals and select a model.

After you have chosen a model, the next step is to devise a plan to achieve the objectives according to your particular ground realities. The solution in our case is painful because you cannot move forward without extracting the destructive mindset from both the society and the state.

For the long-term changes, the education system as a whole with a particular focus on curriculum needs a complete overhaul. Students must know about their geography and [actual] history as well as the modern world and the socioeconomic changes that produced the North-South divide. They require complete understanding of the historical developments, leading to the developed West.

Pakistan immediately needs is a “purge” so that elements promoting extremism and associated with the views upheld by Imran Khan are systematically removed from all institutions.

At the same time, science should be our focus, but the scientific minds need critical thinking. So, lift the blanket ban imposed on reasoning and make development of critical thinking a prerequisite for schooling from an early age.

However, what Pakistan immediately needs is a “purge” so that elements promoting extremism and associated with the views upheld by Imran Khan are systematically removed from all institutions, including media and education. The suggestion may seem harsh and unrealistic, but the fact remains that you won’t move forward unless drastic steps are not taken, as these elements would sabotage every move both at the societal and state levels.

For this purpose, one can take a leaf out of the McCarthyism or even the Stalinist Purges. The two historical examples are certainly not good ones; however, using the same techniques for a better cause is not a bad idea.

All we need is to set goals that can make Pakistan part of the global journey towards integration and progress, especially when the two Gulf States – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – are leading the unprecedented transformative changes in the region. Staying in the vicious circle would be our own choice, blaming others won’t serve any purpose. Just don’t miss another train.

Nuclear Security: Radioactive Material Theft Signals Potential Crisis

Arshad Mehmood

October 10, 2024

Pakistan has expressed deep concerns over repeated incidents of theft and illegal sale of nuclear and other radioactive materials in its eastern neighbor, India, calling on the United Nations Security Council to take the issue seriously. The demand comes, as nuclear security is a major global concern.

During a Wednesday briefing on the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1540, Munir Akram – Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN – emphasized the need for a thorough investigation into these incidents.

He urged the Security Council to take decisive measures to prevent such occurrences in the future.

Pakistan highlighted the recent incidents in which a group in India was found illegally in possession of highly radioactive and toxic material known as californium, valued at $100 million. Additionally, three other cases involving the theft of keys related to sensitive materials were reported in India in 2021.

Akram emphasized that these incidents suggest the existence of a black market for such sensitive materials, raising serious concerns about regional and global security.

NON-PROLIFERATION:

In his statement, Akram reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to the non-proliferation of nuclear materials and its adherence to UN Security Council Resolution 1540.

He emphasized that Pakistan has effectively fulfilled its obligations under the resolution as a responsible nuclear power.

“We have established a robust command and control system, enacted stringent legislation to regulate the transfer of sensitive goods and technologies, and implemented a comprehensive export control system that meets the highest international standards,” Akram stated.

Akram noted that Pakistan has submitted six comprehensive reports outlining its efforts to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1540. These efforts include:

These steps, he added, reflect Pakistan’s proactive approach to upholding the resolution’s objectives.

DUAL-USE TECHNOLOGIES:

Akram also emphasized the importance of protecting states’ rights to the peaceful use of dual-use technologies and the need for a balanced approach in export control systems to ensure that they are not coerced or used as a tool of discrimination.

He proposed that either the Security Council or the General Assembly should form an inclusive, open-ended working group dedicated to ensuring equitable access to technology and tackling issues related to denial, discrimination, and developmental barriers.

NUCLEAR MATERIAL BLACK MARKET:

The recent incidents of theft and illegal sale of nuclear and other radioactive materials in India have sparked serious concerns about regional and global security.

Hence, the discovery of a black market for such dangerous substances in one of South Asia’s nuclear-armed states has brought into sharp focus the potential risks of nuclear terrorism and the broader implications for international stability.

The presence of radioactive materials in unauthorized hands poses a direct threat to regional stability, particularly in South Asia, where tensions between nuclear-armed neighbors like India and Pakistan remain high.

In a region already marred by historical hostilities and a volatile security environment, any potential leak of nuclear or radioactive materials could have catastrophic consequences.

NON-STATE ACTORS:

Such incidents could enable non-state actors or terrorist groups to gain access to materials that could be weaponized, leading to a new and dangerous security dynamic in the region.

Experts warn that the existence of a black market for radioactive materials heightens the risk of such materials being used in acts of terror, potentially targeting urban centers or strategic infrastructure.

The use of even a small quantity of radioactive material in a dirty bomb could create widespread panic, cause significant casualties, and disrupt economic activities, resulting in a crisis that would extend beyond the borders of South Asia.

The issue of nuclear security is not confined to regional dynamics; it has far-reaching global implications. The potential for radioactive materials to be sold on the black market and used in acts of nuclear terrorism represents a challenge to global non-proliferation efforts.

The international community has long sought to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and materials, and incidents like those reported in India threaten to undermine these efforts.

STORAGE OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS:

Incidents of this nature underscore the importance of robust and transparent regulatory frameworks for the handling and storage of nuclear and radioactive materials.

They also highlight the need for stringent measures to secure nuclear facilities and prevent unauthorized access. While South Asian countries have made strides in nuclear security, these incidents suggest that more needs to be done to ensure that radioactive materials do not fall into the wrong hands.

COORDINATED EFFORTS:

The recurring reports of illegal activities related to radioactive materials in India have prompted calls for a coordinated international response. Observers suggest that the UN Security Council and other international bodies should take notice of these developments and work with regional actors to ensure that appropriate security measures are enforced.

Addressing these concerns requires a multi-pronged approach, including sharing intelligence, enhancing border controls to prevent the smuggling of radioactive materials, and providing technical assistance to improve regulatory frameworks. Strengthening regional cooperation through dialogues and joint initiatives could help build trust and ensure that all countries in the region are taking necessary steps to prevent such incidents.

The broader global community must remain vigilant in supporting these efforts, as the consequences of radioactive materials falling into the hands of non-state actors could be devastating, not only for South Asia but for the entire world.

The international community must emphasize the importance of adhering to frameworks like UN Security Council Resolution 1540, which aims to prevent non-state actors from acquiring weapons of mass destruction.

As the world grapples with evolving security challenges, the need for strict nuclear security measures has never been greater. The incidents in India serve as a stark reminder of the risks posed by insufficient regulation and the potential dangers of a thriving black market for radioactive materials.

But addressing these risks will require concerted efforts at the national, regional, and international levels to ensure that nuclear materials remain secure and that incidents of theft or illegal trade are swiftly addressed.

The stakes are high, and the international community cannot afford to overlook the potential consequences of such incidents. A failure to act could result in a security crisis with implications that extend far beyond South Asia, threatening the safety and stability of populations around the globe.

Transforming Pakistan’s Youth Into A Driving Force For Sustainable Growth

Tayyaba Khurshid

October 9, 2024

Pakistan, a nation with a burgeoning population of over 220 million, has the potential to transform its youth into an asset rather than liability. The youth of any country are the driving force towards its economic growth and sustainable development. If a country has an educated, skilled, dynamic and employed youth population, no force can stop social and economic progress. The real transformation lies in the youth, as they are the present and the future of any state. It is just a cliche to say that the potential of Pakistan’s youth to spearhead an economic revival is immense, given their energy, creativity, and adaptability to technological advancements, albeit whenever given an chance.

History is full of examples, where the youth became a driving force in revolution. Bangladesh recently have witnessed a revolution led by youth, where the corrupt leadership was left with no option but to leave the country.

Economic revolution can be brought in Pakistan, if the youth work in the right direction and realize their immense potential. The abilities of youth can be harnessed properly through strategic alignment of policies, resources and opportunities.

No real progress can be made without addressing a major challenge that has been affecting the conservative societies like Pakistan – it is gender inequality.

This essay explores the vital role of youth in driving Pakistan’s economic revolution, highlighting the challenges they face and the strategies needed to empower them as catalysts of change.

The great poet Iqbal highlighted the potential a man of strong character holds.

“The man of strong character who is master of himself will find fortune complaisant.

He will dig up the foundations of the universe and cast its atoms into a new mold.

He will subvert the course of time,

And wreck the azure firmament.

By his own strength he will produce,

A new world which will do his pleasure.”

The youth in Pakistan aged between 15 and 29 make up around 64% of total population. This unique bulge of youth, if utilized effectively, can serve as a catalyst for economic expansion. Their curiosity and inventive spirit enable them to bring a change and work that lead to growth and sustainable development. Born and raised in technology, the Gen-Z are more aware of their surroundings and adaptive towards new domains of earning as well as learning skills that are required globally. In fact, they are more prepared to take risks for their personal growth.

Young people have been leading an increasing number of entrepreneurial projects in Pakistan in recent years. They are simultaneously tackling social challenges and generating new economic possibilities through tech companies and social enterprises.

The rise of Pakistan’s startup ecosystem – particularly in cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad – offers a positive outlook towards economic growth where young people are creating opportunities not only for them but for others as well. Pakistan needs startups that can create employment opportunities as job market is now more saturated than ever. As a result, a majority of youth finds it hard to get job.

Moreover, these startups not only generate employment but also contribute to diversification of economy, which is crucial for long-term stability and growth.

Globalization has led to interconnectedness and the skilled youth now have an opportunity to work for foreign clients while sitting in the comfort of their homes. However, these opportunities can be availed with strong internet and skilled youth. The government needs to focus on the building infrastructure essential for fast internet and must ensure its availability 24/7. Many young people have started their YouTube channels and are used social media platforms for changing their lives while earning in dollars. However, more can be achieved in this domain as well.

CHALLENGES FACED BY THE YOUTH:

Despite their potential, the major chunk of youth in Pakistan faces significant challenges that hinder their ability to contribute effectively to economy. One of the most urgent problems is a dearth of high-quality skill development and education. Even though Pakistan’s literacy rate has increased, there is still a large gap in the quality of education between urban and rural regions. The options accessible to youth, especially those from disadvantaged classes, are restricted by this discrepancy, thus resulting in absence of human resource development.

Social change was considered a prerequisite for economic progress as the Saudis went for executing the Vision 2030.

While those living in big cities can make their way out due to exposure and facilities, a large share of population living in rural areas are wasting time scrolling phones and becoming a liability for both the society and the country. The state needs to cater their needs and bring them to mainstream for economic growth. The individuals that are out of school should have other opportunities to learn skills that are required for today’s technologically advanced world.

Another major issue is unemployment. High youth unemployment rate results from Pakistan’s labor market’s inability to accommodate the enormous number of graduates who enter the workforce each year. The mismatch between the skills provided at educational institutions and the demands of the labor market exacerbates this predicament. Young people are often underemployed or employed in sectors unrelated to their qualifications, which limits their productivity, dampens potential and adds to economic stagnation.

Simultaneously, there is no link between industries and education system, which leads to producing graduates with degrees that have no relevance with the job market. Unfortunately, the universities are running as business firms. To avoid these issues, the industries should guide these institutions to offer relevant degree programs for the present and the future.

And then comes the issue of young entrepreneurs lacking access to financing. Although there are several initiatives aimed at supporting startups like the Prime Minister’s Youth Loan Program and the establishment of National Incubation Centers, many young people struggle to secure the necessary funding to bring their ideas to fruition. This approach is seemingly a result of the belief that investing in youth-led businesses carries a significant risk. Hence, many bright business ideas are not executed.

GROWTH-CENTERED EMPOWERMENT STRATEGIES:

Keeping in view the abovementioned challenges, multiple strategies can be implemented to harness the potential of Pakistan’s youth and ensure that they play a central role in the economic growth. Obviously, a skilled and educated workforce is required to achieve the goal of a vibrant economy.

The government must address two issues: ease of doing business and cost of doing business.

To ensure that the young people have equal access to quality education irrespective of the socioeconomic background, Pakistan has to go for huge investment in education system, with an emphasis on vocational education and occupational training according to the needs of the modern economy. However, there may be potential for public–private partnership to achieve the target, as the business sector may help align the educational activities with the market needs.

In order to encourage more young people into commercial enterprises, both the public and private sectors must strategize their priorities to develop an environment conducive to setting up new businesses. In other words, the government must address two issues: ease of doing business and cost of doing business.

This will require increasing the availability of funds through grants and loans at reduced interest rates or through venture capitals as well as mentorship programs. It will prepare the entrepreneurs of the next generation, as school and college children can also be nursed towards risk taking and innovative culture through various means like the use of incubators, accelerators and education on entrepreneurship. In particular, it is necessary to involve young people in the process of policy making to address issues that concern them. Thus, providing outlets to the youth for participating in governance and policy formulation is a must.

Meanwhile, technology is a potent weapon for economic transformation in the digital era. Pakistan’s youth can take the lead in the global digital economy by investing in digital infrastructure, fostering IT education, and supporting the growth of tech firms. Although programs like the Digital Pakistan Vision are a positive start, they must be strengthened and backed by strong legislative frameworks. There are many examples of young students who are bringing dollars home through their skills and using platforms like Fiver and Upwork. But more needs to be done.

On the other hand, the recent government decision to install a firewall resulted in the loss of digital work opportunities and millions of dollars. These steps demotivate the youth, as those working hard to change their fate often get frustrated. And this frustration is also leading the youth to settle in foreign countries in search of employment. The state has to devise policies to make youth our strength instead of a liability and stop the brain drain.

But no real progress can be made without addressing a major challenge that has been affecting the conservative societies like Pakistan – it is gender inequality. Without working on gender equality, no country or people can reach their full economic potential. Sustainable economic development will remain a dream without mainstreaming the more than half of the population by providing equal opportunities to the women.

This means changing societal views that constrain women participation in workforce and thus in economy as well as implementing legislations that provide for gender equality at workplace, in education and access to the windows of finance.

It is not that we don’t have an example or model to follow. Just look at Saudi Arabia which under the visionary leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is transforming the conservative mindset for producing a vibrant and progressive society. That’s why social change was considered a prerequisite for economic progress as the Saudis went for executing the Vision 2030 to make the Kingdom a global hub for investment, trade and manufacturing through sustainable development.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates, another Muslim country, has already been experiencing an exponential growth only thanks to an open society for decades now.

Pakistani youth are not only the leaders of tomorrow but today’s agents of change. If given the right tools and prospects, they can trigger a socioeconomic change that will transform the whole nation for the better. However, one has to tackle these obstacles and introduce policies required to meet the goals.

Karachi Terror Attack: Chinese Investment Is the Target, Rest Is Just Smokescreen

Arsalan Raja

October 8, 2024

ISLAMABAD – Two Chinese engineers were killed and another injured in the latest terror attack on Sunday evening, coinciding with the PTI’s attempt to storm Islamabad, amid Pakistan’s efforts to attract Chinese investment through CPEC.

Meanwhile, the outlawed Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it involved an improvised explosive device (IED).

The terrorist group has targeted Chinese nationals on multiple occasions in the past as well.

It raises serious questions about the motives and timing, given the fact that Pakistan is set to host the Shanghai Cooperation Council (SCO) Summit next week on Oct 15 and 16.

The mega event is preceded by the arrival of Prime Minister Li Qiang in Islamabad on Oct 14, who will be first the top leader from China to visit Pakistan in over a decade.

Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch on Monday condemned the Karachi terrorist attack and targeting the Chinese nationals. The blast was so powerful that over a dozen vehicles were also either destroyed or damaged.

Earlier in the day, the Chinese embassy in Islamabad asked “the Pakistani side to thoroughly investigate the attack, severely punish the perpetrators, and take all necessary measures to protect the safety of Chinese citizens, institutions and projects in Pakistan.”

Meanwhile, one cannot ignore the global politics.

“The critical point to note is the role of spoilers outside the region, which are against Chinese economic and global leadership status,” said Prof Shabana Fayyaz of Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. “They are also at work here.”

“What’s happening in Pakistan vis-à-vis CPEC also needs to be approached from this angle,” she emphasized.

MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT:

But it isn’t just China and the SCO, that provide an alternative to the US-dominated world order, as Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expanded his aggression to Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen after killing more than 42,000 Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Thus, Israel clearly wants to drag everyone into a direct military conflict that no one in the region wants.

How the US is going to resist the temptation remains the most vital question after the powerful far-right elements in the country have been presented with an opportunity by Netanyahu to target Iran. Thus, people like John Bolton are now calling vociferously for regime change in Iran.

So, a holistic view of the current developments presents an alarming trend, as Pakistan has been witnessing a rise in terror attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. This trend is a product of a “well thought out decision” made by the then prime minister Imran Khan, under which he allowed the TTP terrorists to resettle in the country.

Imran has been advocating the cause of the Afghan Taliban as well as of al Qaeda, besides offering to open the offices of TTP, in the past. It was only a matter of time before the Afghan Taliban returned the favor. No wonder, Imran is known as Taliban Khan.

That’s why Mushahid Hussain Sayed – who served as a senator and federal minister – cites geopolitics is one of the main reasons behind the rising terrorism in Pakistan. He mentions Indian isolation in South Asia and India’s role in the New Cold War against China as the factors in this connection.

However, Mushahid Hussain also sees the administrative vacuum in Pakistan due to a “weak” and “ineffectual government” as the reason.

SECURITY BREACH:

Ihsanullah Tipu, an Islamabad-based journalist who covers terrorism in the region, described the terror attack as a serious security breach.

He says it is clear that the terrorists had complete information about the movement of these Chinese. The ability to target them near a sensitive location near the Jinnah International Airport also shows their reach and a complete failure on the part of the security apparatus to protect the Chinese working in Pakistan.

IMPROVISATION VS LACK OF INNOVATION:

According to Tipu, the security and intelligence community in Pakistan has failed to adapt themselves according to the changing times and latest technological developments.

Many planned terror attacks have been foiled in Europe and the US by constantly relying on technology, but this isn’t the case in Pakistan.

On the other hand, the terrorist groups are evolving and improvising continuously, making it very difficult to track their movement and plans, Tipu notes.

Mushahid Hussain too agrees with Tipu, as he says the terrorists are seemingly well-equipped and well-trained as well as more sophisticated in their tactics. The Indian intelligence agency, RAW, is probably working overtime to destabilize Pakistan, he added.

Baloch insurgents have remained very active since the start of 2024, claiming over 200 attacks under the umbrella of the Baloch armed groups Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), says Iftikhar Firdous whose work focuses on violent conflicts and ideologies.

According to Firdous, the bombing squads of BLA (Jeeyand) have carried out major attacks, using more than 24 suicide bombers against sensitive military installations in Bolan, Gwadar, and Kech. It signals a shift in the strategy of these groups from hit-and-run to direct assaults on bases of the Pakistani security forces and intelligence.

On the other hand, there has been a resurgence of the BLA (Azad) faction with attacks, particularly in the Makran and Rakhshan divisions.

This trend, Firdous notes, indicates the ability of these groups to expand their activities.

It is certainly an alarming development, as it begs attention: why and how the terror groups in Balochistan can attract more and more people.

On the other hand, Prof Shabana Fayyaz highlighted another phenomenon. “Unfortunately, economic, social and political disparities in the ecosystem have generated certain groups that act as freelancers in tandem with the outfits like TTP and BLA, and become proxies of the enemies of both China and Pakistan.”

ZERO ACCOUNTABILITY:

Tipu says the inability to punish the officials concerned means the sense of responsibility remains missing. The maximum punishment given in Pakistan is suspension instead of termination, he regretted.

In this regard, he cited the example of the Dasu and Shangla terror attacks in which Chinese nationals were killed as well as the recent IED blast which targeted a convoy of foreign diplomats in Swat.

According to Tipu, foreign diplomats openly complain that they do not and cannot rely on Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies.

SERIOUS COMPLICATIONS:

Citing past examples, Tipu says Pakistan’s relations with China had experienced a major setback after the terror attacks in Dasu and Shangla, as Beijing had demanded strict action against the perpetrators.

These concerns were shared by the top Chinese leadership, he recalled.

He is right. It was Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif who had to repeatedly apologize and promise security to the investors and leaders during his last visit to China. That’s why he has again visited the Chinese embassy in Islamabad to offer his condolences and expressed his determination to punish the culprits.

Tipu expects a strong reaction from Beijing this time too, which, he says, is justified as the Chinese nationals are being targeted frequently.

Similarly, Mushahid Mushahid feared that China would lose confidence in Pakistan’s ability to protect its citizens. This would be a very negative development for foreign investment, as they would feel unsafe and insecure, he added.

Moreover, Mushahid Hussain also believes such incidents are bad for national morale as internal violence and destabilization spawn insecurity among citizens.

WHY BALOCHISTAN IS THE FOCUS:

Firdous lists three major catalysts for the increased acts of violence in Balochistan. The first is the highly charged political divide and Mahrang Baloch’s march to Islamabad. Second is Pakistan’s relationship with Iran and cross-border missile strikes by both countries. And lastly, foreign investment in Balochistan is seen as “occupationist” in its nature by the insurgent groups, who also claim it’s a prerequisite for further “militarization”.

That’s why Tipu mentions the planned launch of CPEC 2 – the next phase of the Belt and Road Initiative’s flagship project – as a motive to target the Chinese.

SOLVING THE PUZZLE:

Tackling the challenge of terrorism head-on is a must for Pakistan, as internal and external forces can’t afford the country to experience economic progress.

It is a multidimensional task. Pakistan needs to address internal issues as well as external challenges.

That’s why there is an urgent need to address the political issues related to Balochistan with prudence while engaging the locals.

But in the current geopolitical environment where the US and China are practically engaged in a trade war while trying their best to expand their respective sphere of influence, the increase in terrorist acts across Pakistan isn’t a surprise.

Meanwhile, the Afghan Taliban, who are housing the TTP terrorists, in a statement have “advised” Islamabad to solve the prevailing political instability through dialogue. This “advice” directs Islamabad to make peace with the PTI exactly the way they have been asking Pakistan to accept the demands of the TTP.

23 Years Since US Invasion Of Afghanistan: Pakistan’s Lasting Cost Of ‘War On Terror’

Arshad Mehmood

October 8, 2024

Twenty-three years ago on October 7, 2001, the United States launched its invasion of Afghanistan, a move that would reshape the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. Termed as the “war on terror,” the invasion was a direct response to the September 11 attacks orchestrated by al Qaeda. The US and its allies sought to dismantle its operational base in Afghanistan and capture its leader, Osama bin Laden. In the initial stages, the invasion rapidly overthrew the Taliban regime which had provided safe haven to the terrorist organization. But what began as a mission to root out terrorism morphed into a protracted conflict, lasting two decades and concluding with a chaotic US withdrawal in 2021.

From the onset of the invasion, Pakistan was a critical partner for the US. Islamabad’s strategic location, sharing a long and porous border with Afghanistan, made it indispensable in the fight against the Taliban and al Qaeda. The country was designated a “major non-NATO ally” by the US, a status that granted Pakistan certain military and financial support in exchange for its cooperation. The partnership was fraught with challenges, as Pakistan navigated the delicate balance between supporting the US while managing its own security and domestic political concerns.

the relationship between Washington and Islamabad was often marred by mutual distrust, accusations of duplicity, and diverging strategic priorities.

In the years following the 2001 invasion, Pakistan provided logistics, air bases, and intelligence support to American forces. However, the alliance came with significant sacrifices. Pakistan became a frontline state in the fight against terrorism, facing the blowback from terrorists who targeted its cities, towns, and military installations in response to its alignment with the US. Despite its substantial contributions, the relationship between Washington and Islamabad was often marred by mutual distrust, accusations of duplicity, and diverging strategic priorities.

The human and economic costs of Pakistan’s involvement in the war on terror have been staggering. Since 2001, over 70,000 Pakistanis — both civilians and security personnel — have lost their lives in terrorist attacks. This toll includes the devastating wave of suicide bombings that struck public spaces, schools, and places of worship, leaving behind a trail of destruction and trauma. The erstwhile tribal areas, particularly North and South Waziristan, became battle zones as the Pakistani military launched operations against militants who sought refuge there.

The emergence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) further exacerbated the country’s internal security challenges. Formed in the aftermath of the 2001 invasion, the TTP capitalized on the instability along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, targeting the Pakistani state through a series of deadly attacks. The group’s campaign included the infamous 2014 massacre at the Army Public School in Peshawar, which left 132 children dead and shocked the nation. For many in Pakistan, the war on terror felt like an unending cycle of violence, even as the country played a pivotal role in assisting US counterterrorism efforts.

The emergence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) further exacerbated the country’s internal security challenges.

Beyond the loss of life, Pakistan’s economy suffered immensely due to its involvement in the war on terror. The frequent terrorist attacks deterred foreign investment, strained public resources, and disrupted economic growth. According to official estimates, Pakistan’s economy suffered losses amounting to over $150 billion due to the war. The conflict also strained Pakistan’s infrastructure and social services, with millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs) fleeing the violence in the tribal regions and seeking refuge in other parts of the country.

Pakistan also bore the burden of hosting millions of Afghan refugees, both from earlier waves during the Soviet invasion and from the new influx following the US invasion. The presence of these refugees put additional pressure on the country’s economy and social fabric, creating tensions between local populations and refugee communities. Despite the challenges, Pakistan continued to provide refuge, even as it navigated complex relations with Kabul and Washington.

In August 2021, the United States made a hasty exit from Afghanistan, ending its military presence after 20 years of war. The withdrawal marked a dramatic and chaotic conclusion to a conflict that had defined the region for two decades. The rapid collapse of the US-backed Afghan government, followed by the Taliban’s swift return to power, created a power vacuum in the country, triggering a humanitarian crisis as thousands of Afghans attempted to flee.

The presence of these refugees put additional pressure on the country’s economy and social fabric, creating tensions between local populations and refugee communities.

For Pakistan, the US withdrawal brought new challenges. The instability in Afghanistan led to a resurgence of militant activities in the border regions, with the TTP and other extremist groups becoming emboldened. Cross-border attacks and the movement of militants into Pakistani territory further complicated the security situation. Despite its sacrifices, Pakistan felt abandoned by the US, left to manage the fallout of a war it had supported at great cost.

The shift in American strategic focus towards China and the Indo-Pacific region left Islamabad struggling to maintain relevance in Washington’s new geopolitical calculations. As the US pivoted away, Pakistan faced an increasingly hostile security environment, including tensions with India and a resurgence of terrorist activities. The fragile security situation, coupled with economic challenges, has made it difficult for Pakistan to stabilize the region and achieve lasting peace.

As the world marked 23 years since the US invasion of Afghanistan, the legacy of the war on terror remains a subject of deep reflection. For Pakistan, the conflict brought both international recognition and immense suffering. It highlighted the country’s strategic importance but also exposed the vulnerabilities and complexities of its internal dynamics. While the US may have closed the chapter on its longest war, the conflict’s aftershocks continue to shape the realities of the region.

In Afghanistan, the return of the Taliban to power has raised concerns about the re-emergence of extremist ideologies, with al Qaeda reportedly re-establishing a presence in the country. Pakistan, facing the spillover effects of this renewed instability, continues to grapple with the challenges of cross-border terrorism and internal security threats. The promise of a peaceful and stable region remains elusive, as the shadow of the war on terror looms large over both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The return of the Taliban to power has raised concerns about the re-emergence of extremist ideologies, with al Qaeda reportedly re-establishing a presence in the country.

The story of Pakistan’s involvement in the war on terror is a cautionary tale about the complex dynamics of international alliances and the unintended consequences of military interventions. As Islamabad navigates a new era without the strategic support it once received from Washington, the hope for a more stable and secure future lies in regional cooperation and a long-term strategy to address the root causes of extremism.

Five Years Since Article 370 and Indian Illegal Occupied Kashmir Enigma

Huma Rehman

October 7, 2024

Five years after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government changed the autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir, the central government’s hawkish and illegal approach to the region has left it more vulnerable to regional and geopolitical threats.

While Kashmir Valley, has withstood the brunt of multiple rounds of political and armed violence since 1989, the theatre of conflict has now extended into the otherwise peaceful region of Jammu. Since 2019, at least 262 soldiers and 171 civilians have died in more than 690 incidents, including the February 2019 Pulwama incident, across Kashmir. The evolving conflict, with the populace challenging the iron grip of India over Jammu and Kashmir underscores the risks to both regional stability and security. These are the outcomes of India’s unilateral policy choices preferring illegal annexation over political settlement.

In 2019, the Modi government revoked Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which granted the state of Jammu and Kashmir its special status, eliminating the symbolic autonomy of the disputed region. Concurrently, the central government also imposed indefinite harsh measures in the region including communications blackouts and granting arbitrary arrest powers to law enforcement in a bid to suppress the local population. The result was a transformed landscape, already tarnished by militarization, now turned into an open prison.

THE UNENDING SOCIOECONOMIC CONSEQUNCES POST-ABROGATION:

Even though the Indian Supreme Court eventually approved this undemocratic action, it has since sparked more legislative amendments. For instance, the local populace is no longer eligible for special safeguards that formerly restricted government employment applications and property purchases in Jammu and Kashmir to the state’s permanent residents alone. This is changing the demography of the region, with the goal to undermine majority of Muslims. Meanwhile, in March 2020, the government repealed 12 and amended 14 land-related laws, proposing a provision allowing top army officials to designate a local region as strategically significant and another that opened the door for a development authority to seize land.

The ease with which government organizations can now confiscate both residential and agricultural areas in the name of development and security has alarmed the local populace. This led mass evictions and the demolition of homes, which disproportionately harm Muslim communities and small landowners. This is replication of Israeli’s displacement strategy in occupied Palestine in a bid to invite settlers from others parts of India.

Meanwhile, the ecological fallout is another outcome of the Article 370 revocation, including massive road and railway networks coupled with the plans for mega hydroelectricity projects, which will pollute the riverbeds and cause villages to sink. Since 2019, there hasn’t been any local representation to serve as a check on large-scale development projects, the majority of which are now governed by New Delhi.

THE ONGOING POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS OF ARTICLE 370’s REMOVAL:

The Modi administration has also suppressed opposition in the area over the past few years by rerouting the military to continue monitoring and controlling the civilian populace. The controversial Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act and the Public Safety Act of India resulted in the arrest of over 2,700 persons in the region between 2020 and 2023, according to the Forum for Human Rights in Jammu and Kashmir.

There is now even less trust between Kashmiris and the Indian government because of Modi regime’s oppressive actions. The disparity between the national government and local ground realities has widened because of the top-down administration’s continued marginalization of local police officers and officials. In addition to causing hardship for the local populace, all of this has put India’s already precarious relations with its two nuclear neighbors, Pakistan and China, in jeopardy.

For the first time in 10 years, there may be a chance for the people of Jammu and Kashmir to select their local administration thanks to the current regional elections. But no matter who wins the elections, the local leaders would not have the authority to implement significant change because the area is still governed by New Delhi due to its downgrading from a state to two union territories. Ladakh, however, still lacks a legislative assembly. Jammu and Kashmir has a so-called elected assembly, yet the governor appointed by the Modi-led central government is vested with executive powers.

According to Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the government of the seized land has changed, ushering in a new era of peace and swift economic expansion. Restrictions on civil freedoms are causing resentment among Kashmiris, and the BJP only fielded candidates for a small number of seats that are concentrated in certain districts. However, there has been an increase in conflicts between Indian forces and rebels from Kashmir, and this year’s municipal elections took place in September.

Local politicians and voters suffered a setback when the Indian government decided to further increase the governor’s supervisory authority. It will take a lot more work to alter the current situation. Even if it is still improbable, New Delhi needs to think about significant measures that could heal some of the political scars caused by the total dismantling of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy. One such measure could be the region’s return to statehood. The Indian government needs to restore civil freedoms and fulfill its pledge to create jobs and economic growth if it hopes to regain the trust of Kashmiris.

CONTINUED DISPROPORTIONS TO BE SORTED:

At the international level, recently, India again exploited the UN General Assembly forum to state that the Kashmir dispute is now left only in the context of Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Thus, he implied that the Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir question had been settled once and for all with the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A on August 5, 2019. Unfortunately, once again India disregarded the political aspirations of Kashmiris. There are several UN Security Council resolutions on Kashmir and New Delhi has committed to hold a plebiscite in Jammu and Kashmir to determine whether Kashmiris would like to join India or Pakistan. By reinforcing illegal constitutional amendments, India is only fueling the complexity.

Furthermore, normalizing relations in the neighborhood should not be predicated on a terrorism narrative. Neither Pakistan nor India can afford an escalation of conflict, whose risk has increased recently. Diplomatic negotiations, and revisiting of policies over Kashmir must begin for the betterment of regional progress and stability.

Middle East in Turmoil: Oct 2023 – Oct 2024

Dr. Nazir Hussain

October 7, 2024

The inevitable has happened and the Middle East has gone into a deep crisis with chaos and uncertainties. In retaliation to the assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, Iran launched missile attacks on Israel (Oct 2, 2024), targeting its airfields and Mossad headquarters.

Earlier, in a deliberate escalatory move, Israel expanded the war horizon by launching ‘pager detonations’ against Hezbollah and conducting devastating air raids on the underground headquarters of Hezbollah in Beirut. Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Nasrullah along with other key Hezbollah/Hamas figures on Sep 27, 2024. Israel also conducted airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen on Sept 29 and targeted Russian airbase in Damascus and launched attacks against Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) bases in central Lebanon. Tel Aviv calculated the risks of enlarging the war theatre and Iranian retaliatory attacks, and the likely Israeli response have set unprecedented consequences for regional security.

In a rare public appearance in four years, Iranian Supreme leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei, addressed the Jumma congregation (Oct 4, 2024) at Tehran in Persian and Arabic. He emphasized the need for Muslim unity in support of the oppressed people of Palestine and Lebanon.

Israel has launched massive airstrikes on Gaza killing over 42,000 civilians, mostly women and children, over 96,000 injured and millions displaced.

Khamenei said the blood of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders would further embolden the will to resist against Israel and its backers. “The resistance in the region will not back down even with the killing of its leaders,” he remarked, calling Iran’s attack on Israel “legal and legitimate”.

“The operations were … in return for the heinous crimes committed by this bloodthirsty criminal entity. We will not act irrationally … not act impulsively.”

Aljazeera reports that Khamenei’s sermon sent a message to Israel that the Iranian authorities “are not hiding, they are not seeking shelter, they are not going underground.”

Khamenei served as president of Islamic Republic (1981-89). He was deputy defense minister and commander of the IRGC, considered as a foreign policy hawk and negotiator of ‘hostage crisis’ (Britannica, Oct 4, 2024); therefore, he is well versed with military strategy, diplomatic maneuverings and public posturing.

Importantly, for the last one year (Oct 2023 – Oct 2024), Israel has been unable to achieve any of its military or political objectives. In the light of its insane bombardment in Gaza and Lebanon against unarmed civilians, Israel has failed to break the will of the people; they have not vacated the areas. Assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Nasrullah have produced alternate leadership that is more hardline and resolute. On the contrary, several hundred thousand dual national Jews have left Israel (Haaretz, Sep 6, 2024) and ‘Israeli economy is paying a high price for its widening war’ (CNN, Oct 4, 2024). Therefore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting for his political survival at the expense of its own people/country and the region at large.

ISRAELI BELLICOSITY:

Since October 2023, Israel has launched massive airstrikes on Gaza killing over 42,000 civilians, mostly women and children, over 96,000 injured and millions displaced (Aljazeera, Oct 4, 2024). Gaza has been turned into a living hell with two-third of the infrastructure destroyed or damaged, including schools and hospitals (Aljazeera, Aug 21, 2024). This amounts to genocide and systematic human cleansing. Since Sep 20, 2024, Israel has conducted airstrikes on Lebanon killing over 1,000 people with more than 6,000 wounded and about one million displaced. It also launched limited ground offensive inside Lebanon.

Israel targeted the camps of PLFP base in central Beirut (BBC News, Sep 31, 2024), which were not actively involved in the war. It also hit the power plants, ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa in Houthi controlled-Yemen (Reuters, Sep 29, 2024).

Israel crossed the Iranian ‘red lines’ when its plan of high-profile targets led to the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran.

At the same time, it also launched missile attacks on Khmeimim air base, near the coastal city of Latakia (The Telegraph, Oct 3, 2024), having Tartus Russian naval base. Earlier on Sept 18-I9, Israel conducted ‘pager detonations’ being used by Hezbollah leaders/sympathizers, killing dozens of people. This was a calculated Israeli strategy to enlarge the canvas of war to engage maximum hostile actors in order to get the US financial/military support and political/diplomatic backing. Israel did secure ‘$8.7 billion aid package from the United States to support its ongoing military efforts and to maintain a qualitative military edge in the region’ (Reuters, Sep 26, 2024).

Israel crossed the Iranian ‘red lines’ when its plan of high-profile targets led to the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran on July 29, 2024, and most trusted Iranian-ally, Hezbollah leader Nasrullah in Beirut on Sep 27, 2024. Since Oct 2023, Israel has killed Hamas military commanders Ibrahim Biari, Saleh al-Arouri and Mohammad Dief, IRGC commanders Razi Mousavi and Reza Zahedi (The Guardians, July 31, 2024), and Hezbollah commanders Ibrahim Qubaisi, Ibrahim Aqil, Ahmed Wahabi, Fuad Shukr, Muhammad Nasser and Taleb Abdallah (Aljazeera, Sep 28, 2024).

These high-profile killings clearly show Israeli bellicosity to target the political/military commanders to break the will of the ‘resistance Forces.’ However, after each assassination, a more hardline and resolute commander has become the alternate source for Israeli anxiety.

Netanyahu also directly threatened that “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that is true of the entire Middle East”.

The Israeli prime minister during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly session, which was boycotted by many delegates, retorted that the multiple conflicts in the Middle East were far from resolved, and he vowed to continue battling the Lebanese Hezbollah and defeat Hamas in the Gaza Strip until “total victory” (Associated Press, Sep 29, 2024). Netanyahu also directly threatened that “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that is true of the entire Middle East”.

Surprisingly, in a bizarre move, Israel declared UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres as ‘persona non grata’ as ‘Guterres condemned the escalation of violence in the region’ (Aljazeera, Oct 2, 2024). These Israeli moves clearly reflect sheer bellicosity and hardened approach with disregard to the international fora and humanitarian laws. It shows Israeli war-mongering and genocidal strategy to wipe out unarmed civilians in the region.

IRANIAN STRATEGIC RESTRAINT OR MISCALCULATION:

The new Iranian president, Masood Pezeshkian, is considered to be a moderate and believed in dialogue and engagement with the West. However, the assassination of Haniyeh, at the eve of Pezeshkian’s sworn-in ceremony in Tehran (July 31, 2024), was a sheer embarrassment to Iran and circumvented president’s intended approach.

There were fiery speeches by the Iranian leadership of a ‘befitting reply’ to the assassination, but for about two months (Aug-Sep), there was an intense internal debate over a possible response by Iran. The IRGC and other hardliners were for a befitting reply but the new government was trying to pacify the situation.

Iran had no option but to take retaliatory action against Israel for the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership and to restore Iranian deterrence.

It was not clear if this was a deliberate ‘strategic restraint’ or a miscalculation by Iran that Israel will not cross its ‘red line’ until the assassination of Nasrullah on Sep 27, 2024. The inaction of Pezeshkian was being questioned; there were also question marks on the loyalty of Iran with its proxies in Palestine and Lebanon. Therefore, Iran had no option but to take retaliatory action against Israel for the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership and to restore Iranian deterrence and prove its techno-military superiority.

IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS:

On Oct 1, 2024, Iran began the ‘Operation True Promise II’ against Israel by launching waves of around 200 missile attacks on Israeli airbases – Nevatim, Hatzerim and Tel Nof – and Mossad headquarters. According to the Iranian Mehr News Agency, Iran used two-stage rockets with a liquid-fuel first stage and a solid-fuel second stage: Ghadr-S (1,350km range), Ghadr-H (1,650km range), Ghadr-F (1,950 km range), Emad (1,700km range), and Fattah-I and Fattah-2 hypersonic missile having range of 1,400km. (Mehr News Agency, Oct 2, 2024)

It is believed that Iran launched the first attack of ballistic missiles to engage the ‘Iron Dome’ and later fired the hypersonic missiles to hit the actual targets. There are conflicting reports, claims and counter-claims; Iran says 90 per cent of its targets were hit, whereas Israel maintains that 90 per cent of the missiles were intercepted. One report claims that around 20-30 missiles hit the heavily protected Nevatim airbase and directly impacted the protected hangers of F-35 stealth fighter jets.

Iranian strikes believed to have destroyed over 20 fighter jets (Press TV, Oct 3, 2024). Israel also accepted the damage caused to the air base, “however, the damage deemed ineffective” (Times of Israel, Oct 3, 2024). There are reports that at least 32 targets were hit by the Iranian missiles and Israel tried to hide the damage from Iranian missiles by putting digital clouds above Tel Nof and Nevatim airbases for the satellite imagery (Military Watch Magazine, Oct 1, 2024). Importantly, no damage was done to the civilian populated areas/infrastructure and no loss of life were reported.

After the missile attacks, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that the missile attack was an act of ‘self-defense’ that only targeted military and security sites used for attacks on Gaza and Lebanon. “We did so far after exercising tremendous restraint for almost two months, to give space for a ceasefire in Gaza. Iran’s action was concluded, unless Israel decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful.” (Aljazeera, Oct 1, 2024)

There are two possible Iranian targets for Israeli attacks: oil refineries/installations and bunker-buster attack on nuclear facilities.

Pezeshkian stated that “if the Zionist regime (Israel) does not stop its crimes, it will face harsher reactions” (Reuters, Oct 2, 2024). Therefore, Iran’s response would be imminent with full force.

LIKELY ISRAELI RESPONSE:

“Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,” Netanyahu said hours after the unprecedented attack (CNN, Oct 2, 2024). A former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett called on Netanyahu to attack Iran’s nuclear and energy sites, claiming that “this could lead Iranians to rise up and bring down their regime at last. Israel has had no better chance in half a century to change the region fundamentally.” (The Atlantic, Oct 2, 2024)

There are two possible Iranian targets for Israeli attacks: oil refineries/installations and bunker-buster attack on nuclear facilities. “Iran has one of the largest refining sectors in the Middle East with about 2.4 million b/d of capacity in 2023 spread across 10 main sites. Its three biggest refineries are the 370,000 b/d Isfahan plant, the 360,000 b/d Abadan refinery, and the 320,000 b/d Bandar Abbas”. (S&P Global, Oct 2, 2024)

However, it is believed that by hitting the Iranian oil installations, the global oil prices would shoot up. “What is really on the table now and is more likely is an attack on oil facilities” (CNBC, Oct 2, 2024). The Iranian retaliation could mean increase in oil prices and disruption of supplies. If Iran chokes the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, the entire global oil trade would be disrupted. Importantly, Iran’s strategic Islands of Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs at the entrance of Strait of Hormuz have the capability to undermine the global trade and energy supplies.

The other option is to attack the Iranian nuclear installations, but these are deep inside Iran that would require use of Arab territory and refueling. To cover a radius of 3000-4000 kilometers would be a real challenge, unless the US aircraft carriers are used for attack. However, a former US army officer Jack Jacobs maintains that “Israel could also take aim at Iran’s nuclear facilities, but those buildings are hardened, making them difficult to destroy. A strike on those facilities could trigger an even larger ballistic missile attack by Iran that would be difficult to defend against” (CNBC, Oct 2, 2024).

“The phase of unilateral self-restraint has ended; individual self-restraint does not secure our national security requirements.”

However, if at all Israel wants to hit the Iranian nuclear facilities, nuclear power plants at Bushehr along the Persian Gulf coast are the most vulnerable and easy to target. But in that eventuality, prospects of Iran going nuclear would be much higher than any other time to come.

There is every likelihood that Israel would attack on the eve of first anniversary of the Oct 7 Hamas attack to make a significant impact; however, Tehran has conveyed to the United States through Qatar that ‘any Israeli attack against Iran would meet an “unconventional response” that include targeting Israeli infrastructure.’

“The phase of unilateral self-restraint has ended; individual self-restraint does not secure our national security requirements” (Aljazeera, Oct 3, 2024).

It is believed that Iran has pre-set and calibrated hundreds of missiles against designated Israeli targets, which would be launched when Israel carries out attacks against Iran. Therefore, the world is anxiously waiting for another showdown in the Middle East.

MIDDLE EAST IN TURMOIL:

Middle East has never seen a lasting peace in the last one century. But over the last one year (Oct 2023 – Oct 2024), the region has slid into deep turmoil and chaos with no respite. Israel has conducted deliberate genocide against the unarmed Palestinians in Gaza and launched attacks against four countries in the region: Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran. It has assassinated dozens of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders without breaking their will to resist. The ever- increasing heightened tension has posed severe danger of a regional war that may result in a perpetual destruction and mayhem. The fight for the political survival of Israeli prime minister would produce increased sufferings for the Palestinians and the outcome of Israel-Iran tit-for-tat would yield unimaginable consequences for the regional security and global order.

PTI Attacks Islamabad Using Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Govt Resources

Info Desk

October 6, 2024

ISLAMABAD – The PTI used the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government resources to attack Islamabad where the party supporters resorted to violence, resulting in the martyrdom of a policeman and injuries to 70 others, during the violent protests on Oct 4 and 5.

Sources say the PTI not only transported armed miscreants from the province but also policemen in plain clothes, as they torched and damaged government installations. Many of them have been arrested, including 22 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Police and two Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) officials, they added.

The latest revelations further strengthens the case for imposing Governor’s rule in the provinces, as the PTI – a sympathizer of TTP terrorists – is repeatedly targeting the Centre and Punjab. Why? To press the state institutions to spare Imran Khan – the incarcerated party founder – who may soon face military trial for planning and executing the attempted coup plan on May 9, 2023.

RIGHT TO PROTEST?

Taking refuge in democratic values and rights to carry out anti-state activities has become a norm for PTI. It includes an organized propaganda designed to incite violence while citing freedom of expression and then executing violent acts in the name of right to protest.

It is said that Constable Abdul Hameed was performing duties at Chungi No 26 from where he was kidnapped before being tortured. He succumbed to his injuries in a hospital.

The Final Round!

Murtaza Solangi

October 5, 2024

Looks like the final round of the high-stakes and high-risk game is here. A populist Frankenstein nurtured under Imran Khan over decades, created for the sole goal of establishing an over-centralized unitary state using populist charisma has backfired and is out to eat up the creators and hellbent on taking the entire system down along with the country.

Let us look at the situation fast deteriorating as we speak.

After a series of missteps since his removal after he fell out with the establishment in April 2022, Imran Khan has embarked upon the path of suicidal brinkmanship. The dissolution of Punjab and KP assemblies aimed at creating powerful provincial governments before the general elections and rigging the National Assembly elections afterward through them didn’t work. It actually backfired and created an unprecedented caretaker setup in those provinces for over a year and the federal caretaker setup for almost six months.

Imran Khan… embarked upon the path of suicidal brinkmanship.

Imran Khan, advised by Gen Faiz Hameed, who he wanted to appoint the Army Chief, tried to stop the appointment of General Asim Munir and used all types of machinations and street actions but failed. His last most important action was to spur a mutiny in the armed forces on May 9, 2023. A coup d’état against the sitting Army Chief was the sole aim of the attacks on the military and intelligence installations.

After that, embroiled in multiple criminal cases including embezzlement and sedition, the only success story of the incarcerated leader is his social media prowess and the ability to use higher judiciary, the high court, and the Supreme Court to get unprecedented relief for him, his current wife and other party leaders. That situation changed after Qazi Faez Isa became the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

Also read: Gandapur Pushing For Governor’s Rule. You’re Gonna Get It

The democratic-minded CJ tried to carry the entire court with him by embracing the Practice and Procedure Act, unlike the previous CJs who relied on like-minded judges. The remnants of the old judicial system however successfully used the same democratic mechanism against the CJ by delaying bench formations on major constitutional cases that go potentially go against Imran Khan and his party.

The recent protests announced by Imran Khan in Islamabad and Lahore are his last-ditch effort with strategic and tactical calculations.

It is that backdrop that when everybody saw that the higher judiciary was being used as a sidekick to pull Imran out of the mess he threw himself into, the government and the establishment started thinking of judicial reforms snatching the new tools from the incarcerated leader licking his wounds in Adiala. Imran also saw the elements in the higher judiciary as a helping hand to protect him from the major cases against him especially the May 9 related cases with the potential of a military trial against him.

When the government made a botched effort to amend articles of the constitution after it had already changed election law, it pushed the incarcerated leader and his party into a frenzy for survival. Earlier Imran had directed his party to hold large public meetings in major cities like Islamabad and Lahore and asked Chief Minister Punjab to throw all provincial government resources to make a maximum impact. The reluctant Chief Minister tried but failed and earned the ire of the incarcerated leader.

With the government in overdrive to push the legislative agenda aimed at creating a federal constitutional court after the reversal of the Supreme Court decision under Imran’s favorite Supreme Court judges under CJ Bandyal in May 2022 effectively stopping defections at all costs, Imran has just gone bonkers and is making a last-ditch effort to create major chaos in the country. The recent protests announced by Imran Khan in Islamabad and Lahore are his last-ditch effort with strategic and tactical calculations.

The strategic goal is to stop the government from the constitutional amendments and somehow retain a pro-Imran judiciary that can help him come out of jail, overturn the results of the February 8 elections, and bring him back to power.

Imran is using the time frame before October 25 to somehow delay the Legislative train. He is using the provincial government as a pawn in this chess move. He would be happy to sacrifice the KP government in the process. The sacking of KP government serves many purposes. It helps incompetent provincial government from peoples’ wrath as the performance of the party is next to Zilch despite remaining in power for over a decade. The sacking gives the party a martyr status.

Soft towards TTP and Afghan Taliban, Imran has used the provincial government as a major blackmailing tool against the federal government and the military establishment to seek relief from the grinding wheel of the prosecutorial system denying his existence. Imran is using two calendar dates as bargaining chips.

Imran is using two calendar dates as bargaining chips: October 15… and October 25, the date of retirement of the current Chief Justice.

October 15, the day of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Islamabad, and October 25, the date of retirement of the current Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa. Imran wants chaos and bloodshed NOW to maximize his bargaining to push the government to stop the Legislative Train and scathing of the pro-Imran judiciary.

Leaders of PTI have now publicly said they will go ahead with the mayhem in Islamabad and especially Punjab till Imran himself calls off the protest. One of the leaders, Zain Qureshi, the son of former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has said in the talk shows that his party may postpone the protest if the government stops the Legislative Train till October 25, effectively spilling the beans on what their target is.

The government has now deployed an army under Article 245 of the constitution in the federal capital as well as the entire province of Punjab. The article denies that high courts, packed with pro-Imran judges, can provide relief under Article 199 of the Constitution.

As things stand, the confrontation is imminent and so is the bloodshed. The only saving grace for the federal, Punjab government, and the security establishment would be to finish this round really quickly and not invite the anger of the people who are facing tremendous hardships under siege due to roadblocks, and suspension of cellular and mobile internet.

Whosoever uses peoples anger to their advantage will be the winner.

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