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The Causes of Bangladesh’s Recent Riots

By
Chiara Cacco and Dr. Sahibzada Muhammad Usman
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The recent riots in Bangladesh have drawn significant attention both domestically and internationally, shedding light on the deep-rooted issues plaguing the nation.

The recent riots in Bangladesh have drawn significant attention both domestically and internationally, shedding light on the deep-rooted issues plaguing the nation. The unrest, initially sparked by confrontations between the student wing of the Awami League, the Bangladesh Chhatra League, and protesting students, reveals a broader and more complex narrative. This turmoil underscores the ongoing conflict within Bangladesh, rooted in the establishment’s policies and the increasing authoritarianism of Sheikh Hasina’s virtually one-party rule.

To understand the present unrest, it is crucial to look back at the historical context. On January 3, 2024, Raqim Al-Haruf wrote about the Bangla Krashik Saramak Awami League (Buxal) and its transformation under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who became president for life and established a one-party system in Bangladesh. This historical precedent is now being echoed in Sheikh Hasina’s governance, where similar authoritarian practices are being implemented, leading to growing public dissatisfaction. Sheikh Hasina’s government has been criticized for its heavy-handed approach and suppression of dissent. The protests reflect a growing sentiment against her administration, which many see as prioritizing power retention over democratic principles and citizens’ welfare.

The societal discontent is further fueled by the increasing influence of India on Bangladesh’s domestic and foreign policies, perceived by many as compromising national sovereignty.

One of the critical drivers of the riots is the economic struggle faced by millions of students in Bangladesh. With over 18 million students grappling for jobs, the country’s largest garment industry, despite its $40 billion export revenue and employment of 4 million people, cannot meet the employment demands of these students. This economic frustration has ignited the flames of unrest, reflecting broader societal issues beyond mere job scarcity. The anger among the youth is not solely about the lack of employment opportunities. It stems from systemic discrimination and the perceived favoritism towards a specific group since the fall of Dhaka. Many believe that since the fall of Dhaka, Bangladesh has fallen under the invisible control of India, exacerbating feelings of disenfranchisement and inequality.

The garment industry, which is a cornerstone of Bangladesh’s economy, has not been able to absorb the vast number of educated youths entering the job market each year. Despite being a major exporter, the industry’s growth has not translated into adequate employment opportunities. This disconnect has led to widespread frustration among the youth, who see their futures dimming in a stagnant job market. The government’s inability to create new job opportunities or support industries that can absorb this labor force has only heightened the sense of betrayal and anger among the populace.

The current protests also highlight deep-seated social discrimination and historical resentments. The main demand of the protesters was to end the special privileges granted to those who fought against Pakistan in 1971. This movement is largely driven by students whose elders were not part of the 1971 unrest, yet they feel the repercussions of that era.

The ruling government, under Sheikh Hasina, has leveraged these historical privileges to maintain power, further alienating a significant portion of the population.

The societal divide is marked by those who have historically benefited from the post-independence privileges and those who have been marginalized. The resentment has been building over decades, with the latter group feeling increasingly sidelined in the political and economic spheres. The protests are a manifestation of these accumulated grievances, where the younger generation, who did not experience the liberation war, feel particularly disenfranchised by a system that they believe is unjust and discriminatory. The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that even the official broadcaster has gone offline, a measure only previously seen during significant upheavals like the Egyptian revolution in 2011. This media blackout highlights the severity of the government’s crackdown on dissent and the escalating conflict within Bangladeshi society.

Sheikh Hasina’s government is perceived as heavily inclined towards India, with actions that reinforce this alliance often coming at the expense of national interests. For instance, to appease India, Sheikh Hasina prematurely ended her visit to China and announced the handing over of the 414 km long Teesta Water Project to India. This move, aimed at placating India, has further fueled public anger and the perception of Bangladesh as a subordinate state under Indian influence. Economically, Bangladesh’s garment industry relies heavily on raw materials from China, while India remains the largest buyer of Bangladeshi products in Asia. By aligning closely with India, Sheikh Hasina’s administration is seen as making Bangladesh’s economy increasingly dependent on its neighbor, thereby undermining economic sovereignty.

Most of the raw material in Bangladesh’s garment industry comes from China, while India is the largest buyer of Bangladeshi products in Asia. It buys $15 billion worth of various products from Bangladesh annually, and Sheikh Hasina deliberately wants to make Bangladesh’s economy more under India’s influence. Along with this, it is also helping India to fulfill its ambitions in the Indian Ocean.

It is quite clear that India’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean are aimed at countering China’s Indian Ocean policy. It has a part from the eastern coast of Africa to Australia.

Bangladesh’s inclusion in the Colombo Security Conclave, alongside Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Mauritius, further cements its alignment with India’s regional strategy. The main objective of this organization is to maintain security and stability in the Indian Ocean under India’s interests, countering Chinese influence. This strategic alignment is perceived as another step towards making Bangladesh a “country state” under India’s auspices, where the local ruler is assured of security while the external power holds significant control over national affairs. In June, Bangladesh formally requested China to invest in the Teesta Water Project, but later handed it over to India to demonstrate its loyalty to the latter. This strategic decision underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play, with Bangladesh caught between its economic dependence on China and its political alignment with India. The move to align with India in the Indian Ocean’s security framework also suggests a deeper strategic partnership aimed at countering China’s influence in the region.

Sheikh Hasina’s government has actively sought to align Bangladesh’s security and economic interests with India, further consolidating this relationship. The agreements signed during her visits to India, which included cooperation in maritime security, economy, space, and telecommunications, highlight the depth of this partnership.

This alignment has not been without controversy, as it has fueled the perception that Bangladesh’s sovereignty is being compromised in favor of Indian interests.

The riots in Bangladesh are a manifestation of longstanding grievances, economic struggles, and political tensions. The confluence of historical resentments, social discrimination, economic dependency, and geopolitical alignments has created a volatile environment. As public sentiment continues to agitate against Sheikh Hasina’s government and its perceived subservience to India, the unrest is likely to persist. Addressing these issues requires not only economic reforms and job creation but also a commitment to democratic principles and national sovereignty. Without such measures, the discontent in Bangladesh will remain a significant challenge for the current administration. To move forward, the government must recognize the multifaceted nature of the unrest and take comprehensive steps to address the root causes. This includes creating inclusive economic policies that provide job opportunities for the youth, ensuring social justice by addressing historical grievances, and maintaining a balanced foreign policy that safeguards national interests. Only through such holistic measures can Bangladesh hope to achieve stability and peace in the long term.

The Path to Reliable and Affordable Electricity

By
Iqra Rasool
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Electricity is the lifeblood of modern society, fuelling homes, businesses, and essential services.

Electricity is the lifeblood of modern society, fuelling homes, businesses, and essential services. However, for many consumers, it has become a source of unending frustration and financial strain. The defects in the electricity transmission system, coupled with the anti-public practices of distribution companies, have created a nightmarish scenario. Theft, load shedding, ever-increasing prices, and over-billing have compounded the misery, making it nearly impossible for many to manage their daily lives. In this context, the announcement of reforms in the power sector by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is a much-needed beacon of hope.

The electricity transmission system in the country is plagued with inefficiencies and outdated infrastructure, leading to frequent breakdowns and prolonged outages. These defects not only disrupt daily life but also hinder economic activities, causing significant losses. Businesses struggle to maintain productivity, and households face inconveniences that affect their quality of life. Unfortunately, the distribution companies, instead of alleviating the burden, have often been found to exacerbate the situation. Their anti-consumer practices include over-billing and mismanagement. In the last four months alone, more than one billion ten crore units were overbilled across the country. This malpractice forced domestic consumers and government offices to bear an additional burden of forty billion 80 crore rupees. Such egregious actions have eroded public trust and confidence in these companies.

The issue of over-billing is not isolated but widespread, affecting thousands of consumers. Authorities have initiated 82 inquiries and registered 32 cases against those involved in this malpractice. An extensive check of 48,137 meters revealed that over-billing was present in 827 connections. These findings highlight the systemic nature of the problem, which requires comprehensive reforms to protect consumers and ensure fair billing practices. Overbilling has severe financial implications for consumers, many of whom are already struggling to make ends meet. The additional charges can push families into financial distress, forcing them to cut back on other essential expenses.

This situation is particularly dire for low-income households, who can least afford such unexpected costs. The government must take decisive action to address this issue and ensure that consumers are billed accurately and fairly.

As if these challenges were not enough, electricity rates are on a continuous upward trajectory, driven by the demands of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra). The latest blow to the already beleaguered consumers is the hearing of a request to increase the price of electricity by two rupees 63 paise on July 31. Given the current trends, this increase is almost certain to be approved, further straining household budgets amidst rampant inflation. The constant rise in electricity prices has a cascading effect on the economy. Higher electricity costs increase the operational expenses for businesses, which often pass on these costs to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services. This, in turn, contributes to overall inflation, making life even more challenging for ordinary citizens. The government needs to find a balance between meeting the financial requirements of the power sector and protecting consumers from exorbitant price hikes.

In this bleak scenario, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s announcement of reforms in the power sector offers a glimmer of hope. During a meeting with members of the National and Provincial Assembly of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, he urged elected representatives to support efforts in curbing electricity theft. He emphasized that the government is committed to reforming the electricity sector and shifting agricultural tubewells to solar energy. These proposed reforms are a step in the right direction. By addressing the root causes of the problems in the power sector, the government can bring about meaningful and lasting changes. The focus on curbing electricity theft is particularly important, as it not only reduces losses but also ensures a more equitable distribution of electricity.

Theft not only deprives the system of valuable resources but also leads to higher costs for honest consumers who end up bearing the brunt of the losses.

Transitioning to solar energy is a strategic move that promises multiple benefits. Solar energy will not only reduce dependency on imported fuels, saving billions of dollars, but it will also expand the cultivated area, boosting agricultural productivity. This shift aligns with global trends toward sustainable energy solutions and offers a long-term answer to the energy crisis. Solar energy is abundant, renewable, and environmentally friendly. By harnessing the power of the sun, the country can significantly reduce its carbon footprint and contribute to global efforts to combat climate change. Additionally, solar energy can provide a more reliable and stable source of power, reducing the frequency of outages and load shedding. The government’s plan to shift agricultural tubewells to solar energy is a particularly promising initiative, as it can help farmers reduce their operational costs and increase their productivity.

The Prime Minister called on assembly members to prioritize providing relief to the people, especially in matters related to electricity. He stressed the importance of hard work and dedication in their respective constituencies to alleviate the plight of the public. This call to action is crucial as the country grapples with serious economic instability, and coordinated efforts at all levels of government are necessary to achieve meaningful change. Elected representatives play a vital role in the implementation of these reforms. They are in a unique position to understand the specific needs and challenges of their constituencies and can help tailor the reforms to address these local issues effectively. By working closely with their constituents and the government, they can ensure that the benefits of the reforms reach those who need them the most.

Boosting Economic Growth: New Deals with China

By
Syed Umair Jalal
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Economic Growth

During the recent visit to China, PM Shehbaz Sharif has gone a long way for the so-called economic growth by agreeing to bring some of the vital Chinese industries to Pakistan. Pakistan is looking at this agreement to bring in revolutionary changes in its economy and the Prime Minister has vowed to fast track this. Admittedly, this venture is quite crucial and so the Prime Minister himself has been keen at championing the equitable measures towards its realization.

More recently, in the last two days, the Prime Minister gave a green light to a joint venture of Chinese and Pakistani company stressing upon his government’s ardour to carry out investment in Pakistan as one of the main political priorities. Yielding to people’s needs and expectations is one of the significant values of this project. In his speech, he pointed out that this cooperation would increase the economic returns tremendously, generate employment, and increase exportation.

PM Shehbaz Sharif has green-lighted a joint venture with Chinese companies, emphasizing this as a political priority to boost economic growth and employment in Pakistan.

The Prime Minister also discouraged officials from the ministries and institutions involved in the signing of the memorandum of understanding with China to delay it as he said no to plans to delay the MOU. The desire to push for the common progress is evident from him, Affordances of the Chinese leadership’s cooperation should not be underestimated by the government machinery.

In the course of the meeting that took place today, a general plan of converting Chinese industries to Pakistan was revealed. This plan is based on cooperation between the Chinese and Pakistanis Companies for migration of China’s textile, plastic, leather, medical & surgical instruments industries to Pakistan. The Board of Investment provided the information about 78 Pakistan venture capital seeking partnership with corresponding Chinese companies.

The Prime Minister appreciated BOI’s efforts and advice and directed the concerned government departments to extend their all-out support and facilities to those Pakistani companies who are opting for such sort of partnerships.

A strategic plan involves relocating Chinese industries to Pakistan, including sectors like textiles, plastics, and medical instruments.

Also, a total of one thousand students will be trained in China in the new method of practicing modern agriculture at the government’s cost and the first set of students will be dispatched at the start of the current academic year. This programme has been envisaged with an intention to transform Pakistan’s agriculture sector through modern technologies that would increase quality of agricultural production from the existing barren land along with maximizing acres per-hectarage. Thus, it will increase the demand of Pak agriculture products globally, which will improve its sales and exports.

Despite several costly and unfavourable factors, the Prime Minister still continues to work hard and eagerly to uplift the state of nation’s economy. Proof to this commitment is the establishment of the IT park in Islamabad. The Prime Minister also said during his recent visit to the site about this project that the work of constructing this project will set a model across the region. Further, the government has laid down intentions to introduce one thousand e-employment centres all around the nation.

The construction of the IT park is expected to be completed by June next year; however, everything possible is being done to ensure the construction is completed by October this year. The IT industry presently is a sphere enriched with numerous opportunities for development and employment in the contemporary world, and the given initiative seems to benefit from these opportunities.

One thousand Pakistani students will receive training in modern agriculture in China, aiming to enhance Pakistan’s agricultural productivity and exports.

Furthermore, the Prime Minister also pointed out that sustained development of the country’s resources requires national reconciliation. He asked for large-scale negotiations between political forces and state institutions for unity and cooperation. It is crucial for such monumental projects to have this dialogue in order for them to retain relevance and meet their goals.

Indeed, all these changes have significantly shaped the nature of China-Pakistan relations and the nature and prospects of the CPEC. When it comes to cooperation between China and Pakistan the level of trust and the willingness to further strengthen their ties are viewed in a positive light and the examples include the latest accord signifying China’s readiness to transfer industries to Pakistan. This partnership is believed to boost the two countries’ trade and investment relations, thus strengthening the strong and growing economic partnership that has for long been promoted.

CPEC which is a part of the BRI has already brought a sea change in infrastructure of Pakistan. It is believed that the involvement of fresh industrial initiatives will give more pace to CPEC because now it is not only the way of transportation and energy projects but also a place of industrial and technological progress. This diversification of CPEC projects will thus bring more deficit the economic integration between China and Pakistan for the advantage of the two nations.

The establishment of an IT park in Islamabad and the introduction of e-employment centers are part of the government’s drive to modernize and expand the IT sector.

For China, it has the added advantage of controlling over-capacity and cutting down cost of production when industries are moved to Pakistan. In return, through Pakistan’s geographical position, the Chinese industries get a new market in South Asia, Middle East and Africa. Furthermore, the industrial cooperation also caters to China’s general strategy of upgrading industries and going global in manufacturing industry.

For Pakistan, the advantages are many folds; The probes also show that Chinese industries will lead to the generation of several employment opportunities, low unemployment levels, and economic development. This industrial development will also facilitate that technology transfer as well as skill development of human resource for the growth of Pakistan’s industrial skills as well proficiency. Besides, increased exports from these industries will assist in the decrease of the trade deficit and improvement of the foreign exchange reserves.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is evolving from infrastructure to include industrial and technological projects, promising deeper economic integration.

The educational exchange being sent thousands of students to China for the training in modern agriculture shows the extent of China-Pakistan cooperation. Besides increasing the production in agricultural filed this program will also help to produced trained professional that are needed for the overall development of Pakistan’s economy.

Taken more generally, these measures indicate a keen interest of both nations in expanding the cooperation in the sphere of bilateral relations, as well as the successful strategic partnership. They emphasize that cooperation is beneficial for both countries as well as the common understanding of the future’s potential. The setting up of the it parks, and the transfer of industries have been made to establish this vision to make Pakistan a developed countries list through economic revolution and technological revolution.

ASEAN’s Approach to Indo-Pacific Stability

By
Dr. Nhien Tran
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The increasing significance of the Indo-Pacific region has driven its transformation into an arena for major powers

The increasing significance of the Indo-Pacific region has driven its transformation into an arena for major powers like China and the United States to expand their influence. The interests of these major powers have the potential to cause conflicts that can disrupt regional stability, posing a threat to surrounding countries, including ASEAN member countries. Therefore, the involvement of ASEAN as a regional organization in Southeast Asia in maintaining regional stability becomes an intriguing topic to understand further.

Geographically, the Indo-Pacific is a space that connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans, while from a more functional understanding, the interconnection and interdependence between the two oceans are due to the increasing power of globalization, trade, and other activities, thus increasing the mobility of actors and resulting in an integrated approach between countries. In this context, the Indo-Pacific region is also known for its rich natural resources including oil, natural gas, minerals, and fisheries, and is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, thereby enhancing its strategic importance. Consequently, the Indo-Pacific region has become one of the most dynamic areas and the center of global economic growth.

The transformation of the region has prompted various powerful actors to play a greater role in the area. In this regard, China plays a significant role in providing and supplying investment funds to countries in the region, including through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and non-BRI projects, 50% of which are directed to Southeast Asia.

China’s increasing economic influence then raises concerns for other dominant countries in the Indo-Pacific such as the United States and Japan, leading to competition in the region.

The US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region drives the securitization of the area. In this case, the securitization in the Indo-Pacific region is cantered on China, which is considered a threat by other countries such as the United States. This can be seen through the US policies, in collaboration with several other countries, to form security alliances like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad), which is seen as an attempt to counter China’s dominance and its disruption of the rule-based order in the Indo-Pacific region. Additionally, the securitization of the region can also be seen through the formation of AUKUS by Australia, the United Kingdom, and the US to enhance defence through nuclear-powered submarines. However, some parties view these alliances as potentially disrupting regional stability by increasing tensions and arms races and undermining institutions and weakening nuclear non-proliferation mechanisms.

Despite the dynamics occurring in the region, as described above, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a regional organization in Southeast Asia, is not involved in it. This is unfortunate because economically and politically, the Southeast Asian region is increasingly securitized, where the competition of power in the region significantly influences its member countries, for example, on the South China Sea issue.

The importance of the Indo-Pacific region for ASEAN can be seen through the ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOIP). AOIP is a guideline regarding ASEAN’s view of the Indo-Pacific region, formed in response to the presence of the Quad, which is seen as a threat to regional stability. ASEAN considers the Indo-Pacific region not only as a territorial space but an integrated and connected area where ASEAN needs to play a central and strategic role. The geo-economic and geo-strategic changes in the Indo-Pacific region not only present opportunities but also challenges that can threaten regional stability. However, the biggest security threat in the Indo-Pacific region is the competition of major powers. In this case, countries like China expand their power through aggressive actions in the South China Sea and BRI projects, which become threats that the United States tries to mitigate.

This region becomes an arena of competition for two major powers, which is further exacerbated by coalition alliances.

Despite the threat mentioned, ASEAN constructs this region as an ‘area of cooperation’ rather than competition, where the position of Southeast Asia right in the middle of the Indo-Pacific region makes ASEAN a regional organization that plays a central role. In this case, ASEAN’s role in the Indo-Pacific region is to create peace and maintain stability because the conflicts and interests of great powers competing in the region can threaten the stability of the region, especially its member countries. Therefore, the principles embodied in the AOIP become an important instrument to encourage ASEAN’s involvement in regional dynamics

In general, AOIP principles emphasize cooperation over competition, where ASEAN centrality is deemed important in resolving conflicts based on a legal framework and non-intervention. The implementation of AOIP principles is realized through strengthening ASEAN-led mechanisms such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus), Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum (EAMF), and other relevant ASEAN+1 mechanisms. In this regard, ASEAN’s involvement becomes an important issue to emphasize in the Indo-Pacific regional dynamics for several reasons. First, the Southeast Asian region is part of the Indo-Pacific, and therefore threats or conflicts that occur in the region will have more impact on ASEAN member countries.

This is in line with Barry Buzan’s explanation in the Regional Security Complex theory, which emphasizes regional-level threats.

Second, involvement without showing bias in great power competition is the most feasible and appropriate position for ASEAN’s interests. To put it in a considered position in regional dynamics, ASEAN cannot side with one power. This is because ASEAN has long-established good cooperation with both the US and China, even making them the largest trading partners for the organization. Additionally, the diverse interests of each member country also put the organization in a difficult position in choosing a side. Indonesia’s leadership as the chair of the organization also has an important influence in directing ASEAN’s policies, reinforced by Indonesia’s ‘free and active’ policy principle. Thus, emphasizing the cooperation framework through ASEAN centrality and neutrality in AOIP principles becomes the most feasible standing position to apply as it places ASEAN in a considered position while still protecting ASEAN’s interests.

Population Growth and Climate Change in Pakistan

By
Prof. Dr. Muhammad Munir
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Pakistan's rapid population growth is exacerbating the problem of resource scarcity on the one hand and the challenge of climate change on the other.

Pakistan’s rapid population growth is exacerbating the problem of resource scarcity on the one hand and the challenge of climate change on the other. Although Pakistan’s contribution to global warming or carbon emissions is negligible, yet Pakistan is among the countries most affected by climate change. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan ranks fifth among the countries affected by climate change. Similarly, in terms of population, Pakistan is the fifth largest country in the world. However, it is ranked 161st in terms of per capita income and 138th in terms of GDP volume. Similarly, its growth rate in terms of population growth is about two percent, which means the growth rate in terms of population growth is zero.

From these figures, one can estimate the seriousness of the population growth problem facing Pakistan. This situation not only makes efforts to maintain a balance between population and resources futile, but the challenge of climate change is making it more dangerous. Due to the lack of resources, the risks of being affected by natural disasters increase for marginalized sections, while the government has to allocate more resources for their rehabilitation, which increases the non-productive use of national resources. According to the Global Climate Database, the average temperature in Pakistan increased by 0.9 degrees Celsius between 1980 and 2021, while the Global Climate Risk Index ranked Pakistan as the 27th least prepared country in the world to deal with the effects of climate change. It should be noted that from 1998 to 2018, more than 10,000 deaths have occurred due to climate change in Pakistan, resulting in an economic loss equal to four billion dollars. Similarly, due to the flood of 2022, Pakistan faced a loss of more than 30 billion dollars.

According to research by international organizations working for rehabilitation in areas affected by natural disasters, there is a fear that eighty to ninety million people in Pakistan will fall below the poverty line due to the increase in population and climate change.

With the current average annual growth rate, Pakistan needs 104 million jobs and 15.5 million houses. On the other hand, climate change, as a result of rising temperatures, is disrupting rainfall patterns, melting glaciers, increasing the intensity of floods, and raising the likelihood of droughts and hurricanes, leading to economic decline. Environmentalists have predicted that the trend of intensity in the summer and winter seasons is likely to continue until 2027. Due to the tremendous increase in population and climatic changes, Pakistan has become a wheat-importing country instead of exporting wheat in a short period of five years. Similarly, the increase in population also affects the distribution of resources. According to the Population Council of Pakistan, with the current population size and growth rate, the country needs at least 57,000 more primary schools by 2040.

More alarming is that two and a half million children in the country are already deprived of education, leading to estimates that it will take another fifty years to achieve the goal of making it possible for 100% of children to have access to primary education in Pakistan.

Every additional person adds to carbon emissions, while risks of malnutrition are increasing due to population growth. For this reason, Pakistan is among the countries most affected by global warming. Apart from this, the productivity of crops is also affected due to the increase in temperature. Agricultural scientists have long suggested the need to promote the use of traditional grains like millet, barley, and maize to reduce the pressure on wheat production. Additionally, the increase in population is proving to be a major reason for the reduction of forest or agricultural areas. According to official data, the number of trees has decreased significantly by one percent during the last two decades. Thus, Pakistan’s cultivable land has decreased by three percent between 2017 and 2020 to meet the housing needs of the growing population.

The tremendous increase in urban population is also a major reason for the increase in temperature. For example, air conditioner use is one of the main sources of dry heat generation, increasing by five percent in urban areas and more than three percent in rural areas over the past fifteen years. Yet, the climate change discourse in Pakistan is mainly focused on strategies to reduce carbon emissions, while the relationship between population growth and climate change is not given much importance. Confronting the climate change challenge facing Pakistan requires reducing the rampant rate of population growth as its main focus. This will not only help to balance population and resources but also ensure the survival and prosperity of future generations.

The Backbone of Pakistan’s Financial Stability

By
Chiara Cacco and Dr. Sahibzada Muhammad Usman
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Overseas Pakistanis are an invaluable asset to the nation, contributing significantly to its economy through their remittances.

Overseas Pakistanis are an invaluable asset to the nation, contributing significantly to its economy through their remittances. These remittances serve as a lifeline for Pakistan’s economy, helping to stabilize it and prevent potential financial crises. The continuous inflow of foreign remittances is crucial; without it, the country could face severe economic challenges, possibly even bankruptcy. Fortunately, remittances have shown a positive trend, increasing over time, which is a reassuring development for the nation’s economic health.

In the fiscal year 2023-24, Pakistan received a record $30 billion in remittances, marking a 10.5 percent increase from the $27 billion recorded in the previous fiscal year, 2022-23. This surge brings remittances close to Pakistan’s total exports, which stand at $30.6 billion. This increase not only underscores the importance of remittances but also highlights their growing role in the national economy.

The highest remittances in the financial year 2023-24 came from Saudi Arabia, amounting to $7.4 billion. The United Arab Emirates followed with $5.5 billion, while the United Kingdom contributed $4.5 billion. The United States sent $3.6 billion, the European Union provided $3.5 billion, and the GCC countries collectively contributed $3.2 billion. Additionally, $4.2 billion came from other countries around the world.

These figures demonstrate the significant reliance on remittances from Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which together account for more than half of the total remittances.

Globally, Pakistan ranks fifth in remittance receipts, with India leading at $87 billion annually, followed by China with $54 billion, Mexico with $53 billion, and the Philippines with $36 billion. Egypt and Bangladesh follow Pakistan with $30 billion and $23 billion, respectively. The higher remittances to countries like India and the Philippines are often attributed to their workers’ education, English language proficiency, and technical skills, which enable them to secure better-paying jobs abroad.

The increase in Pakistan’s remittances can be partly credited to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The FATF’s stringent measures have significantly reduced the use of informal money transfer systems. In the Gulf countries, where many Pakistani expatriates work, regulatory changes have mandated that salaries be paid through bank transfers, thereby facilitating easier and more secure remittances through official banking channels. However, despite these improvements, some Pakistanis still prefer the informal systems due to the quicker transfer times and slightly better exchange rates.

One of the main reasons overseas Pakistanis opt for informal channels is the inefficiency of the banking system, which often delays the transfer of funds. Unlike the banking system, which can take several days, informal systems can deliver money within hours.

To address this issue, the Pakistani government must work on further improving and modernizing the banking infrastructure, encouraging expatriates to use formal channels for remittances. This would ensure that Pakistan benefits fully from these valuable inflows.

Currently, approximately 13.53 million Pakistanis live in 50 countries worldwide, comprising both educated and uneducated workers. This number is steadily increasing, with over 860,000 Pakistanis going abroad in 2023 and 800,000 so far in 2024. This trend suggests that remittances are likely to continue growing in the coming years.

While countries like China, India, and Bangladesh are moving towards digitalization to streamline and increase their remittances, Pakistan still relies heavily on traditional banking systems. The Pakistani government should focus on providing digital means for overseas Pakistanis to remit money, ensuring transparency and ease of use. Additionally, there should be a concerted effort to provide vocational training to the workforce, equipping them with skills that are in demand globally, thereby enabling them to secure higher-paying jobs.

Such measures would not only increase the volume of remittances but also potentially allow Pakistan’s remittances to surpass its exports in the near future. By focusing on these areas, Pakistan can ensure a steady and growing stream of remittances, which are vital for the country’s economic stability and growth.

Moreover, remittances have broader socio-economic benefits. They help in alleviating poverty, improving household incomes, and enhancing living standards. Remittances are often used for essential needs such as healthcare, education, and housing, thereby contributing to human development. In many rural and underdeveloped areas of Pakistan, remittances are a critical source of income, helping to drive local economies and reduce regional disparities.

Additionally, remittances contribute to the foreign exchange reserves of Pakistan, providing much-needed liquidity to the economy. This influx of foreign currency helps stabilize the Pakistani Rupee, reducing the current account deficit, and enhancing the country’s creditworthiness on the global stage.

Remittances also provide a buffer against economic shocks, helping the country to manage external debt and mitigate the impact of adverse economic conditions.

The government has recognized the importance of remittances and has introduced several initiatives to encourage overseas Pakistanis to remit money through formal channels. These include offering incentives such as reduced transaction fees, preferential exchange rates, and convenient remittance services through mobile banking and digital platforms. Efforts are also being made to improve the efficiency and speed of the banking system, making it more user-friendly for expatriates.

Despite these positive trends, challenges remain. The global economic environment, geopolitical tensions, and labor market conditions in host countries can impact remittance flows. Therefore, it is crucial for Pakistan to diversify its sources of remittances and reduce dependence on a few countries. Strengthening economic ties with new markets and promoting the export of skilled labor to emerging economies can help achieve this diversification.

Furthermore, there is a need for comprehensive policies that address the long-term integration of remittances into the national development strategy. This includes promoting financial literacy among expatriates, encouraging savings and investments in productive sectors, and creating favorable conditions for diaspora entrepreneurship. By leveraging the potential of remittances, Pakistan can achieve sustainable economic growth and development.

China’s Role in Promoting Peace and Cooperation

By
Dr. Zukun Lyu
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China is working to build a new type of international relations and a bond of a common future for humanity.

China is working to build a new type of international relations and a bond of a common future for humanity. The country is committed to a development path distinct from that followed by other traditional large nations, focusing on reform and opening up to development. This path emphasizes mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, a fundamental policy for China. Achieving development and progress is impossible without a peaceful international environment and a stable international system. Therefore, China adheres to the path of peaceful development, engaging in friendly cooperation based on mutual benefit and win-win principles, all grounded in the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence.

China’s independent and peaceful foreign policy is dedicated to peaceful development, opposing the Cold War mentality, interference in other countries’ internal affairs, and double standards. Chinese diplomacy has never sought hegemony and will never engage in foreign expansion. Remarkably, China is the only country to write its commitment to the path of peaceful development into its constitution.

The country actively participates in United Nations peacekeeping operations and international arms control and disarmament efforts, showcasing its dedication to building a world of lasting peace.

Pursuing an independent, peaceful foreign policy involves protecting national sovereignty, security, and development interests while opposing all forms of hegemony and power politics. China firmly defends the leadership of the Communist Party of China and the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics. The Chinese leadership resolutely opposes any calls for “Taiwan independence” and categorically rejects external interference in its internal affairs. Chinese diplomacy works steadily to strengthen international consensus on the China principle. Additionally, it implements the “one country, two systems” policy while advocating for the Hong Kong National Security Law.

In the new era, Chinese diplomacy has exposed American and Western lies with reality and truth, thwarting political plans aimed at using the Xinjiang region to control China. China remains committed to developing human rights while rejecting authoritarian orders from other powers and strongly opposes the politicization of human rights issues. At international forums like the United Nations, nearly 100 countries, including Egypt, have expressed support for China’s just position, opposing interference in China’s internal affairs under the pretext of human rights. Over 80 countries have also opposed the politicization of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Since the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party held in November 2012, Chinese diplomacy has seen significant development amidst a turbulent global situation. China has advanced the diplomacy of “building a bond of shared future for mankind” and achieved initial successes with the Belt and Road Initiative. The concept of “major power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics” has also been comprehensively promoted, increasing China’s influence worldwide. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, held in October 2017, declared that “socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era,” setting forth a governance policy and outlining a development plan for the next thirty years.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his report to the 19th National Congress, emphasized “peace, development, cooperation, and win-win” as essential to advancing new international relations and building a bond of a common future for humanity.

In 2023, major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in the Middle East achieved fruitful results, fostering peace, reconciliation, and harmony in the region. President Xi Jinping hosted leaders from Iran, Palestine, Algeria, Mauritania, Syria, Kuwait, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries, consulting on cooperation and bilateral relations. Summit diplomacy has guided the deepening strategic trust between China and Middle Eastern countries, leading to the comprehensive and rapid development of relations. This reflects the new features of Chinese diplomacy in the Middle East, advancing rapprochement and opening broad horizons for these relations. The Middle East is of significant importance in Chinese foreign policy, with close strategic relations highlighted by political, economic, commercial, cultural, and technological cooperation.

China’s crisis diplomacy is a prominent component of its foreign policy, particularly towards the Middle East, where it stands as a loyal friend, providing support and assistance during crises. This positive impact extends beyond official relations to popular relations, enhancing mutual trust and cooperation. The Middle East’s geopolitical location, controlling vital shipping and commercial lanes, makes it a fundamental axis in China’s strategy to reshape the international economic system. This strategic importance drives China to include Middle Eastern countries in various groupings and mechanisms, notably the Belt and Road Initiative, BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). China also supports Middle Eastern countries in global development, security, and civilization initiatives proposed by President Xi Jinping.

Eventually, China’s diplomatic approach represents a commitment to peaceful development, mutual benefit, and international cooperation. By building new international relations and fostering a shared future for humanity, China is reshaping global diplomacy and strengthening ties with countries worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. This approach reflects China’s vision of a harmonious global community grounded in peace, development, and shared prosperity.

Tourism: Beyond the Scenic Views

By
Naveed Akhtar
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Tourism

It is well said that we must go beyond seeing tourism as a luxury to be consumed and begin to understand it as a tool for development and environmental protection. The boom in the tourism sector has been breaking records with every passing year enhancing people-to-people interactions, rapid capital flow in the market, and venues for recreation, explorations, adventure, cultural exchange, and exhibitions. In 2023, the Travel & Tourism sector contributed 9.1% to the global GDP; an increase of 23.2% from 2022 and only 4.1% below the 2019 level. Representing 9.1% of global GDP at just over $9.9  TN in 2023 according to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WT&T).

Furthermore, tourism is crucial in generating jobs and opportunities for people with a booming employment rate as it employs about 10.6% worldwide according to WT&T. As per the World Travel & Tourism Council Report 2021, travel and tourism contributed $8.8 billion, approximately 2.9% of the total GDP of Pakistan, Pakistan has witnessed a rapid surge in its tourism sector following unprecedented numbers of foreigners visiting Pakistan, especially for adventure tourism in the north of Pakistan, Only in 2023, more than 2 billion tourists visited Gilgit-Baltistan according to GB Government.

Unprecedented Tourism Boom in Gilgit-Baltistan Challenges Local Infrastructure.

Pakistan’s northern area nestles natural wonders and the cultural diversities in the north of Pakistan are rich and old. Gilgit-Baltistan is home to the World’s 2nd highest Peak i.e. K-2 and the World’s three mightiest mountain ranges (Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindukush) are spanned over Gilgit–Baltistan. This year the extreme heat waves in plain areas of Pakistan caused a surge in tourism activities led to the unprecedented inflow of tourists into GB. Millions of national and foreign tourists have visited GB to date this year and many more are coming in big numbers.

The commencement of multiple national flight operations between Skardu and Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi, and then recently direct International flights from Dubai to Skardu has boosted tourism and tourist inflow. However, these historic tourists’ inflow into GB paralyzes traffic flow in major cities of GB and tourist spots where narrow or jagged roads and outdated traffic plans test the patience of tourists and demonstrate that GB is still unprepared to accommodate new vehicles and tourist inflow.

Sustainable Urban Planning Essential to Preserve Gilgit-Baltistan’s Natural Beauty.

The surge in tourism has been welcoming and appealing among locals of Gilgit-Baltistan, however, the lack of sustainable urban planning which includes strategic thinking, inclusive decision-making, planned population growth and settlements, and irresponsible tourism practices have been costing high for GB’s ecosystem and people in the long run. The irregular and unplanned guest houses and hotel constructions are the main concerns attributed to irresponsible infrastructure models.

The mounting graphs of constructions of guest houses or hotels inside local community residential areas or constructions at high pastures and nearby lakes, dams,  deserts, plains, or natural landscapes for which GB is known, have been undermining GB’s real tourism potential and threats to the sustainable tourism and old, rich and diverse culture of mountain communities in the longer run. One example in this regard is the Sarfaranga cold desert, Skardu, where locals over land disputes have constructed boundary walls while allocating land sparks controversies, such practices are unwelcoming and ruin the natural beauty of the landscape.

Tourism Surge in GB Strains Traffic and Highlights Infrastructure Deficits.

The event subsequently led the government to interfere and hence the land dispute case is now in court which suspends all tourists activities and market at Sarfaranga cold desert, Skardu, another example of unplanned tourism practices is seen at Katpana cold desert, Skardu, where local people have again constructed boundary and installed fences undermining natural beauty and scenic views. The construction of hotels and guest houses in the Kaptpana desert is again a huge concern which erodes natural beauty and hence threatens the tourism sector of GB. A large number of such examples could be stated from the GB tourism sector which triggers threats to tourism and the ecology of GB.

The glacier research and knowledge gap in GB is yet another major concern, despite the region hosting more than 7000 glaciers and mighty snow-capped mountains, the research deficit and knowledge gap in such a pivotal area set an alarming ring to think tanks and policymakers that how GB is being made volatile and disaster-prone while no efforts or planning is being made and executed on the ground. The latest glacier preservation and technology to combat glaciers like geotextiles could be used to protect glaciers from melting during summer, another strategy is ice stupa, the idea propagated by Sonum Wangchuk, The program to create horizontal artificial glaciers in Ladakh, Indian-held Kashmir.

Lack of Strategic Planning Threatens Gilgit-Baltistan’s Ecosystem Amid Tourism Growth.

They were required to be built at extremely high altitudes of above 4,000 m with a north-facing valley and also needed intensive maintenance to protect the ice from spring and summer sun. Such conditions constrained the creation of long-lasting and easily replicable artificial glaciers. Currently, the Ice Stupa program has scaled to 52 functioning artificial glaciers in Ladakh and 14 more across the world. As long as these glaciers are preserved they can sustain their lives and livelihood, once these glaciers will disappear due to melting at an unprecedented rate, the reverse option will be no more to preserve glaciers.

GB’s other serious challenge to tourism is its disaster-prone and dangerous roads that prove death well for the lives of many locals and outsiders. Juglot-Skardu Road and Karakoram Highway are the two connectivity veins for all the people travelling across Gilgit-Baltistan. These two roads are frequently blocked following flash floods and land sliding. Frequently reports of accidents and disasters on such roads have created fear and risk among travellers. The locals on many occasions have highlighted and addressed the main concerns before respective authorities but no action has been seen while the risk factor to travel on these roads has been soaring.

International Flights Boost GB Tourism, But Infrastructure Lags Behind.

In response to these challenges, the hourly need is to preserve nature and biodiversity in GB through sustainable development and eco-friendly practices. The forest land in GB constitutes only 4% of total land, the hourly need is afforestation and reforestation in GB through using GIS (Geographical Information System), and satellite imagery to explore potential forest areas in GB. A practical roadmap like the Ten Billion Tree tsunami in KPK has increased the forest land by 6% through community engagement in plantations, such practices and projects must be extended to the length and breadth of GB.

Before we reach the point of no return, my recommendations are ecotourism development, managing over-tourism, promoting cultural tourism, and preservation of adventure tourism with conservation efforts. It is the sole responsibility of the government and local communities to collaborate on these challenging matters and as soon as possible develop an inclusive development mechanism to protect GB’s ecology and community from all the challenges that are thwarting GB’s road to a resilient future and community.

Donald Trump: Militarist or Peacemaker?

By
Professor Alexander Kostyuk
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Donald Trump

John Bolton, Donald Trump’s national security adviser during Trump’s first term, testified in his memoirs that the idea of a peace treaty between South and North Korea took up a lot of President Trump’s workspace, who wanted to go down in history as a peacemaker at all costs. It did not work out then for various reasons. This year, Trump has a good opportunity to re-enter the Oval Office of the White House as the host. Will Trump continue his peacekeeping mission, using the war in Ukraine as an object of peacekeeping?

Politico recently reported that Trump’s priority after winning the US presidential election in November will be to end the war in Ukraine. In May of this year, Trump even made public statements on this issue, claiming that he would end the war very quickly. Given his statements, we can try to draw up the contours of this peace plan.

Trump pledges to swiftly end the Ukraine war if re-elected.

So, Trump will use the plan developed by Henry Kissinger in December 2022 – with separation along the front line, with buffer zones along the front line and borders, and with post-war security guarantees that have already been provided to Ukraine by about 20 countries, including the United States.

This is Trump’s plan, some details of which have been previously voiced by the Chinese leadership and even the Pentagon, when Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Milley offered Ukraine, against the backdrop of successes on the battlefield in Kharkiv and Kherson regions in September-November 2022, to sit down at the negotiating table from a position of strength and stop the fighting. The author of the plan is former US Secretary of State, and former National Security Advisor to President Nixon, Henry Kissinger, who first voiced it in December 2022, then followed it up in July 2023, and at the age of 100 flew to Beijing to visit President Xi Jinping.

Henry Kissinger’s peace plan resurfaces as a blueprint for Trump’s Ukraine strategy.

How does Trump differ from Biden in his rhetoric on the war and Ukraine? Trump speaks frankly about ending the war because it is his topic – during his first term, his idea was a peace treaty between the two Koreas and friendship with the leaders of both Koreas. He didn’t have enough time then.

So he no longer has the patience to start his peacekeeping mission. He knows how to keep the hawks in Europe, and not only in Europe, if there really are any, quiet, and they know it too: by demanding a sharp increase in European defense spending, a reduction in the presence of US troops in Europe, and the fate of Russia’s nuclear deterrent, the US nuclear bombs in Europe. Trump is likely to do this in November without waiting for his inauguration in January.

Security guarantees for Ukraine from NATO countries is also Henry Kissinger’s idea. Ukraine’s path to the EU, as a way for the EU to be involved and responsible for Ukraine’s future, is also his idea, which is why the EU is opening negotiations right now. Foreign Affairs, a leading geopolitical publication, recently tried to predict Trump’s foreign policy after winning the November 2024 election. Ending the war in Ukraine will indeed be a priority for Trump.

Trump’s foreign policy: Prioritizing peace in Ukraine post-election

The results of the recent debate between Trump and Biden only serve to boost Trump’s confidence and give him even more hope of winning the November election. Trump feels confident. He manages to do this even when he avoids facts. Biden is insecure even when he operates with facts.

This is the main conclusion of the foreign media regarding the recent debate between Trump and Biden. On the eve of the debate, Trump’s lead in the polls was 5-6%. After the debate, the difference between Trump’s and Biden’s support became catastrophic for the latter – 67% vs. 33% of voters’ support in favor of Trump. Thus, Trump’s position on the war in Ukraine is clear: he plans to resort to forcing peace on those participants on both sides who disagree with its end and the subsequent political resolution of the sport. He will have a wide range of tools.

Below there is a very useful historical parallel how geopolitics work in complicated circumstances.  In 1990, the question of a united Germany joining NATO depended on whether Lithuania would renounce its declaration of independence or not. If it did, Gorbachev would support Bush’s decision on Germany and NATO. In the middle of these two issues was the lifting of the Soviet economic blockade of Lithuania and the West’s provision of large financial aid to the USSR. Lithuania said no for a long time.

Debate outcomes bolster Trump’s confidence in peacemaking ambitions.

But when such important issues were at stake… in his memoirs, President Bush said in just one sentence that on June 29, 1990, Lithuania reversed its decision on the declaration. At the same time, Bush said nothing about who and how forced Lithuania, with a powerful lobby in the United States, as Bush himself said, to do so and to withdraw. History usually does not record such episodes because the methods of coercion to peace and the corresponding decisions are far from democratic. In this case, it will be the same, because the issue is much more important.

Biden’s situation is much more complicated. On the one hand, he publicly declares his support for Ukraine for as long as it takes, although he does not say what the goal of support is – whether it is the 1991 borders, the collapse of Russia, or independence with sovereignty. At the same time, privately, National Security Advisor Sullivan is seeking negotiations with Russia, i.e., a room to extend the nuclear treaty between them, with the issue of ending the war in Ukraine on the agenda. This has been repeatedly stated by Russian representatives. It is obviously difficult for Biden to play such a double game at the same time.

It is much easier for Trump – he has no need for a non-public dialog on ending the war, as he has never announced any plans for the war other than to end it. It is obvious that if Biden does not have time to complete the non-public dialogue and end the war before November, the US presidential election, Trump will do it publicly, and he will start immediately after the election, without waiting for the inauguration in January 2025.

In the 1990s, Bush and his advisor Scowcroft, and later President Clinton and his advisor Talbot, formed the view that everything possible should be done to prevent a war between Ukraine and Russia, because it would be very difficult to pull Ukraine, that is, Ukrainians, out of the war, because of the powerful national idea and, accordingly, expectations about the outcome of the war. That is, it will be necessary to resort to outright coercion to peace.

Biden’s Dual Approach: Publicly Backing Ukraine, Privately Negotiating with Russia

Now, their foreign policy colleagues in the United States have probably formed a continuation of this thesis: If the war does take place, the main task is to do everything possible to prevent a split within the country and its society, as a result of asymmetric expectations about the end of the war and as a result of high moral asymmetry in society, against the background of a powerful national idea in Ukraine, because the split itself could lead to a social revolt, which would be much more difficult to resolve than the actual end of the war.

Both theses are urgent tasks for the West, and the second is more difficult than the first. These tasks should be fulfilled, because otherwise the entire security structure in Europe could collapse as a result of a prolonged war due to its possible escalation like a house of cards. Therefore, the West will use both carrots and sticks to lead the participants to peace. Coercion to peace successfully applied to end the war in Korea in 1953 would be a case to follow. It is very likely that Trump, as the likely next US president, will take these carrots and sticks into his hands to be fixed by history as a peacemaker.

With or Without Biden?

By
Dr. Muhammad Nadeem Mirza
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Biden

Biden could win any war, but not the one against time. Democrats in the US are repeating this sentence in every other opinion piece, editorial, or in public discussion. At 81 years, he is the oldest president in the history of the United States. Ronald Reagan held the record earlier of being the oldest president when he completed his two terms at the age of 77 in 1989.

It is not just the age, which is a problem, it is Biden’s mental capacity to handle one of the toughest jobs in the world – sitting in the White House. His competitor Trump is just 3 years younger at the age of 78. Not too younger though, Trump has proven himself to be a tough contender and unusual of his style has muted himself about the age-related issues of Biden.

At 81 years, Biden is the oldest president in U.S. history, surpassing Ronald Reagan who was 77 at the end of his second term.

It suits Trump. He wants Biden to stay in the race. Because the more Biden speaks publicly, the more his mental health will be exposed. That is why, Biden since the first presidential debate – which jacked up the popularity ratio of Trump to new heights at the cost of Biden – has avoided public appearances. And when he did appear in front of the public, he avoided the questions and followed the scripted speeches with the help of a teleprompter.

In the instances where he appeared in front of the public without a teleprompter, he continued to destroy his chances of being elected. In one of such post-debate interviews, he mixed his race and said, “I’m proud to be, as I said, the first vice president, the first black woman to serve with a black president.”

Biden in the first Presidential debate held on June 27th stuttered, misquoted the facts, cleared his throat continuously, and spoke with a hoarse and raspy voice. His biggest verbal gaffe came when he stuttered while discussing the tax cuts imposed during the Trump era and after several ummm’s said, ‘if we finally beat the medicare…’ Trump did not let it go and immediately responded ‘he beat it to death, and he is destroying medicare.’ Biden struggled with completing sentences, steered off to different topics without answering the questions, and often remained incomprehensible and confused.

Trump benefits from Biden’s public appearances, as they often reveal Biden’s mental lapses, increasing Trump’s popularity.

It was not the first time that Biden’s mental health came into question. In October 2023 in an interview with Special Council Robert Hurr, he often forgot and mixed up key events and dates. ‘If it was 2013, when did I stop being Vice President?’ At another instance, he asked, ‘In 2009, am I still vice president?’ He even forgot the year his son Beau Biden died.

More recently, Democrats were looking very closely at his performance at the NATO summit that was held in Washington from 9–11 July. They were expecting him to perform better and to not go for more slip-ups.  But in the summit, he called his Vice President Kamala Harris as ‘Vice President Trump’ and to the astonishment of everyone introduced President Zelenskyy as ‘President Putin.’ Zelenskyy responded laughingly ‘I’m better (than Putin)’.

Verbal slip-ups have rarely been an issue, especially when it comes to politicians or anyone speaking publicly. But when discussing the oldest president who has been criticized for being incapable of handling the American presidency, this has become a (inter-) national issue. Democrats are worried that they are losing the voters and that the chances of Trump winning elections have gone substantially high. During recent polls by the New York Times, 49 percent of respondents said that they would vote for Trump as compared to 43 percent of those supporting Biden. Interestingly, 74 percent of the voters considered Biden to be too old for the job of the Presidency.

During the NATO summit, Biden referred to Vice President Kamala Harris as ‘Vice President Trump’ and introduced President Zelenskyy as ‘President Putin,’ leaving Democrats increasingly anxious about his mental fitness for office.

So, what are the options with Biden and the Democrats? First, Biden sticks to his plan of competing Trump. He is imbibing the mounting pressure from within the party and the voters. He claimed that I defeated him (Trump) in 2020 and I am the only person who can defeat him again. This is the main reason Democrats supported him in the first place and are still supporting him. They remained focused on one point: defeating Donald Trump.

The electability of Biden against Trump resulted in his winning the 2020 Democratic primaries. But his same electability has nosedived this time. But Biden remains adamant and claims that he would quit only when ‘the Lord Almighty were to come down and say, ‘Joe, get outta the race.’ This is not going to happen. In such a scenario with every public appearance, Biden will continue to destroy his chances of winning the elections. One thing he could do is go for the cognitive and neurological tests.

The Pressure has been mounting on him that if he intends to continue, then he should go for a test to check his mental acuity and capability. Biden refused to undergo any such test. ‘I have a cognitive test every single day … I’m running the world.’ Without such a test, Biden’s chances of convincing voters about his mental capability remain meagre.

Second, Biden decides to quit. That again would be a nightmarish scenario for Democrats. In case of Biden quitting, Kamala Harris may succeed him and face Trump in the November elections. There is no doubt that Kamala Harris has proven herself to be a strong vice president with a long list of achievements to her name. She also remains the first Asian-American (her mother hails from India), an African-American (her father is a Jamaican), and the first female Vice President of the US. However, electoral politics is different from governance and office work.

Electoral politics is all about winning. Commentators believe that Americans are not ready yet to have a female president. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016. People have not forgotten it. Democrats have not forgotten it. Clinton was a ‘white’ female and a much stronger candidate than Harris. But she lost. Prediction is one of the most difficult jobs for the students of politics. And they are predicting now that Harris will find it very difficult to defeat Trump.

What can Democrats do then? First things first, they do not have time. Democratic National Convention (DNC) is going to be held in August. They must make a decision about Biden’s campaign before the DNC. It is reported that the Democratic bigwig, Barrack Obama, one of the biggest supporters of Biden till now, has also started thinking of the possibility of asking him to quit. He along with 23 Democrat Governors of different states, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and other bigwigs can sit together and decide about the future of the 2024 Democratic campaign.

They can ask Biden to quit. They can also interview and nominate 3-4 possible contenders to replace Biden. To make the process more democratic, they can ask those contenders to present themselves at the upcoming Democratic National Convention and let people and delegates choose their leader.

Biden’s electability has nosedived, yet he remains adamant, claiming he would quit only if ‘the Lord Almighty were to come down and say, ‘Joe, get outta the race.

There is no denying the fact that Biden is the only person who has ever defeated Trump. But there is also no denying the fact that Trump is far ahead of Biden in every opinion poll held and he is not coming slow. The desperation level of Americans has gone too high. Nancy Pelosi recently opined, ‘We’re all encouraging him to make the decision. Because time is running short.’ Democrats have strong feelings for Biden, but they also want to win. And it seems they have realized the bitter fact that with Biden going into the elections, their chances of winning remain dismal.

The catch-22: they also know, it may already be too late to have someone else lead the race. Harris may not win the elections and other candidates may not have ample time to even introduce and entice the disenchanted voters. Moreover, with Biden leaving the race, his die-hard supporters (especially the coloured voters) may not accept or vote for other candidates. Defeating Trump this time seems to be the biggest challenge Democrats have ever faced. As of now, they are failing in it.

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