Five Years Since Article 370 and Indian Illegal Occupied Kashmir Enigma

October 7, 2024

Five years after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government changed the autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir, the central government’s hawkish and illegal approach to the region has left it more vulnerable to regional and geopolitical threats.

While Kashmir Valley, has withstood the brunt of multiple rounds of political and armed violence since 1989, the theatre of conflict has now extended into the otherwise peaceful region of Jammu. Since 2019, at least 262 soldiers and 171 civilians have died in more than 690 incidents, including the February 2019 Pulwama incident, across Kashmir. The evolving conflict, with the populace challenging the iron grip of India over Jammu and Kashmir underscores the risks to both regional stability and security. These are the outcomes of India’s unilateral policy choices preferring illegal annexation over political settlement.

In 2019, the Modi government revoked Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which granted the state of Jammu and Kashmir its special status, eliminating the symbolic autonomy of the disputed region. Concurrently, the central government also imposed indefinite harsh measures in the region including communications blackouts and granting arbitrary arrest powers to law enforcement in a bid to suppress the local population. The result was a transformed landscape, already tarnished by militarization, now turned into an open prison.

THE UNENDING SOCIOECONOMIC CONSEQUNCES POST-ABROGATION:

Even though the Indian Supreme Court eventually approved this undemocratic action, it has since sparked more legislative amendments. For instance, the local populace is no longer eligible for special safeguards that formerly restricted government employment applications and property purchases in Jammu and Kashmir to the state’s permanent residents alone. This is changing the demography of the region, with the goal to undermine majority of Muslims. Meanwhile, in March 2020, the government repealed 12 and amended 14 land-related laws, proposing a provision allowing top army officials to designate a local region as strategically significant and another that opened the door for a development authority to seize land.

The ease with which government organizations can now confiscate both residential and agricultural areas in the name of development and security has alarmed the local populace. This led mass evictions and the demolition of homes, which disproportionately harm Muslim communities and small landowners. This is replication of Israeli’s displacement strategy in occupied Palestine in a bid to invite settlers from others parts of India.

Meanwhile, the ecological fallout is another outcome of the Article 370 revocation, including massive road and railway networks coupled with the plans for mega hydroelectricity projects, which will pollute the riverbeds and cause villages to sink. Since 2019, there hasn’t been any local representation to serve as a check on large-scale development projects, the majority of which are now governed by New Delhi.

THE ONGOING POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS OF ARTICLE 370’s REMOVAL:

The Modi administration has also suppressed opposition in the area over the past few years by rerouting the military to continue monitoring and controlling the civilian populace. The controversial Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act and the Public Safety Act of India resulted in the arrest of over 2,700 persons in the region between 2020 and 2023, according to the Forum for Human Rights in Jammu and Kashmir.

There is now even less trust between Kashmiris and the Indian government because of Modi regime’s oppressive actions. The disparity between the national government and local ground realities has widened because of the top-down administration’s continued marginalization of local police officers and officials. In addition to causing hardship for the local populace, all of this has put India’s already precarious relations with its two nuclear neighbors, Pakistan and China, in jeopardy.

For the first time in 10 years, there may be a chance for the people of Jammu and Kashmir to select their local administration thanks to the current regional elections. But no matter who wins the elections, the local leaders would not have the authority to implement significant change because the area is still governed by New Delhi due to its downgrading from a state to two union territories. Ladakh, however, still lacks a legislative assembly. Jammu and Kashmir has a so-called elected assembly, yet the governor appointed by the Modi-led central government is vested with executive powers.

According to Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the government of the seized land has changed, ushering in a new era of peace and swift economic expansion. Restrictions on civil freedoms are causing resentment among Kashmiris, and the BJP only fielded candidates for a small number of seats that are concentrated in certain districts. However, there has been an increase in conflicts between Indian forces and rebels from Kashmir, and this year’s municipal elections took place in September.

Local politicians and voters suffered a setback when the Indian government decided to further increase the governor’s supervisory authority. It will take a lot more work to alter the current situation. Even if it is still improbable, New Delhi needs to think about significant measures that could heal some of the political scars caused by the total dismantling of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy. One such measure could be the region’s return to statehood. The Indian government needs to restore civil freedoms and fulfill its pledge to create jobs and economic growth if it hopes to regain the trust of Kashmiris.

CONTINUED DISPROPORTIONS TO BE SORTED:

At the international level, recently, India again exploited the UN General Assembly forum to state that the Kashmir dispute is now left only in the context of Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Thus, he implied that the Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir question had been settled once and for all with the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A on August 5, 2019. Unfortunately, once again India disregarded the political aspirations of Kashmiris. There are several UN Security Council resolutions on Kashmir and New Delhi has committed to hold a plebiscite in Jammu and Kashmir to determine whether Kashmiris would like to join India or Pakistan. By reinforcing illegal constitutional amendments, India is only fueling the complexity.

Furthermore, normalizing relations in the neighborhood should not be predicated on a terrorism narrative. Neither Pakistan nor India can afford an escalation of conflict, whose risk has increased recently. Diplomatic negotiations, and revisiting of policies over Kashmir must begin for the betterment of regional progress and stability.

Middle East in Turmoil: Oct 2023 – Oct 2024

Prof. Nazir Hussain

October 7, 2024

The inevitable has happened and the Middle East has gone into a deep crisis with chaos and uncertainties. In retaliation to the assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, Iran launched missile attacks on Israel (Oct 2, 2024), targeting its airfields and Mossad headquarters.

Earlier, in a deliberate escalatory move, Israel expanded the war horizon by launching ‘pager detonations’ against Hezbollah and conducting devastating air raids on the underground headquarters of Hezbollah in Beirut. Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Nasrullah along with other key Hezbollah/Hamas figures on Sep 27, 2024. Israel also conducted airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen on Sept 29 and targeted Russian airbase in Damascus and launched attacks against Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) bases in central Lebanon. Tel Aviv calculated the risks of enlarging the war theatre and Iranian retaliatory attacks, and the likely Israeli response have set unprecedented consequences for regional security.

In a rare public appearance in four years, Iranian Supreme leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei, addressed the Jumma congregation (Oct 4, 2024) at Tehran in Persian and Arabic. He emphasized the need for Muslim unity in support of the oppressed people of Palestine and Lebanon.

Israel has launched massive airstrikes on Gaza killing over 42,000 civilians, mostly women and children, over 96,000 injured and millions displaced.

Khamenei said the blood of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders would further embolden the will to resist against Israel and its backers. “The resistance in the region will not back down even with the killing of its leaders,” he remarked, calling Iran’s attack on Israel “legal and legitimate”.

“The operations were … in return for the heinous crimes committed by this bloodthirsty criminal entity. We will not act irrationally … not act impulsively.”

Aljazeera reports that Khamenei’s sermon sent a message to Israel that the Iranian authorities “are not hiding, they are not seeking shelter, they are not going underground.”

Khamenei served as president of Islamic Republic (1981-89). He was deputy defense minister and commander of the IRGC, considered as a foreign policy hawk and negotiator of ‘hostage crisis’ (Britannica, Oct 4, 2024); therefore, he is well versed with military strategy, diplomatic maneuverings and public posturing.

Importantly, for the last one year (Oct 2023 – Oct 2024), Israel has been unable to achieve any of its military or political objectives. In the light of its insane bombardment in Gaza and Lebanon against unarmed civilians, Israel has failed to break the will of the people; they have not vacated the areas. Assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Nasrullah have produced alternate leadership that is more hardline and resolute. On the contrary, several hundred thousand dual national Jews have left Israel (Haaretz, Sep 6, 2024) and ‘Israeli economy is paying a high price for its widening war’ (CNN, Oct 4, 2024). Therefore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting for his political survival at the expense of its own people/country and the region at large.

ISRAELI BELLICOSITY:

Since October 2023, Israel has launched massive airstrikes on Gaza killing over 42,000 civilians, mostly women and children, over 96,000 injured and millions displaced (Aljazeera, Oct 4, 2024). Gaza has been turned into a living hell with two-third of the infrastructure destroyed or damaged, including schools and hospitals (Aljazeera, Aug 21, 2024). This amounts to genocide and systematic human cleansing. Since Sep 20, 2024, Israel has conducted airstrikes on Lebanon killing over 1,000 people with more than 6,000 wounded and about one million displaced. It also launched limited ground offensive inside Lebanon.

Israel targeted the camps of PLFP base in central Beirut (BBC News, Sep 31, 2024), which were not actively involved in the war. It also hit the power plants, ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa in Houthi controlled-Yemen (Reuters, Sep 29, 2024).

Israel crossed the Iranian ‘red lines’ when its plan of high-profile targets led to the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran.

At the same time, it also launched missile attacks on Khmeimim air base, near the coastal city of Latakia (The Telegraph, Oct 3, 2024), having Tartus Russian naval base. Earlier on Sept 18-I9, Israel conducted ‘pager detonations’ being used by Hezbollah leaders/sympathizers, killing dozens of people. This was a calculated Israeli strategy to enlarge the canvas of war to engage maximum hostile actors in order to get the US financial/military support and political/diplomatic backing. Israel did secure ‘$8.7 billion aid package from the United States to support its ongoing military efforts and to maintain a qualitative military edge in the region’ (Reuters, Sep 26, 2024).

Israel crossed the Iranian ‘red lines’ when its plan of high-profile targets led to the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran on July 29, 2024, and most trusted Iranian-ally, Hezbollah leader Nasrullah in Beirut on Sep 27, 2024. Since Oct 2023, Israel has killed Hamas military commanders Ibrahim Biari, Saleh al-Arouri and Mohammad Dief, IRGC commanders Razi Mousavi and Reza Zahedi (The Guardians, July 31, 2024), and Hezbollah commanders Ibrahim Qubaisi, Ibrahim Aqil, Ahmed Wahabi, Fuad Shukr, Muhammad Nasser and Taleb Abdallah (Aljazeera, Sep 28, 2024).

These high-profile killings clearly show Israeli bellicosity to target the political/military commanders to break the will of the ‘resistance Forces.’ However, after each assassination, a more hardline and resolute commander has become the alternate source for Israeli anxiety.

Netanyahu also directly threatened that “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that is true of the entire Middle East”.

The Israeli prime minister during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly session, which was boycotted by many delegates, retorted that the multiple conflicts in the Middle East were far from resolved, and he vowed to continue battling the Lebanese Hezbollah and defeat Hamas in the Gaza Strip until “total victory” (Associated Press, Sep 29, 2024). Netanyahu also directly threatened that “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that is true of the entire Middle East”.

Surprisingly, in a bizarre move, Israel declared UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres as ‘persona non grata’ as ‘Guterres condemned the escalation of violence in the region’ (Aljazeera, Oct 2, 2024). These Israeli moves clearly reflect sheer bellicosity and hardened approach with disregard to the international fora and humanitarian laws. It shows Israeli war-mongering and genocidal strategy to wipe out unarmed civilians in the region.

IRANIAN STRATEGIC RESTRAINT OR MISCALCULATION:

The new Iranian president, Masood Pezeshkian, is considered to be a moderate and believed in dialogue and engagement with the West. However, the assassination of Haniyeh, at the eve of Pezeshkian’s sworn-in ceremony in Tehran (July 31, 2024), was a sheer embarrassment to Iran and circumvented president’s intended approach.

There were fiery speeches by the Iranian leadership of a ‘befitting reply’ to the assassination, but for about two months (Aug-Sep), there was an intense internal debate over a possible response by Iran. The IRGC and other hardliners were for a befitting reply but the new government was trying to pacify the situation.

Iran had no option but to take retaliatory action against Israel for the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership and to restore Iranian deterrence.

It was not clear if this was a deliberate ‘strategic restraint’ or a miscalculation by Iran that Israel will not cross its ‘red line’ until the assassination of Nasrullah on Sep 27, 2024. The inaction of Pezeshkian was being questioned; there were also question marks on the loyalty of Iran with its proxies in Palestine and Lebanon. Therefore, Iran had no option but to take retaliatory action against Israel for the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership and to restore Iranian deterrence and prove its techno-military superiority.

IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS:

On Oct 1, 2024, Iran began the ‘Operation True Promise II’ against Israel by launching waves of around 200 missile attacks on Israeli airbases – Nevatim, Hatzerim and Tel Nof – and Mossad headquarters. According to the Iranian Mehr News Agency, Iran used two-stage rockets with a liquid-fuel first stage and a solid-fuel second stage: Ghadr-S (1,350km range), Ghadr-H (1,650km range), Ghadr-F (1,950 km range), Emad (1,700km range), and Fattah-I and Fattah-2 hypersonic missile having range of 1,400km. (Mehr News Agency, Oct 2, 2024)

It is believed that Iran launched the first attack of ballistic missiles to engage the ‘Iron Dome’ and later fired the hypersonic missiles to hit the actual targets. There are conflicting reports, claims and counter-claims; Iran says 90 per cent of its targets were hit, whereas Israel maintains that 90 per cent of the missiles were intercepted. One report claims that around 20-30 missiles hit the heavily protected Nevatim airbase and directly impacted the protected hangers of F-35 stealth fighter jets.

Iranian strikes believed to have destroyed over 20 fighter jets (Press TV, Oct 3, 2024). Israel also accepted the damage caused to the air base, “however, the damage deemed ineffective” (Times of Israel, Oct 3, 2024). There are reports that at least 32 targets were hit by the Iranian missiles and Israel tried to hide the damage from Iranian missiles by putting digital clouds above Tel Nof and Nevatim airbases for the satellite imagery (Military Watch Magazine, Oct 1, 2024). Importantly, no damage was done to the civilian populated areas/infrastructure and no loss of life were reported.

After the missile attacks, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that the missile attack was an act of ‘self-defense’ that only targeted military and security sites used for attacks on Gaza and Lebanon. “We did so far after exercising tremendous restraint for almost two months, to give space for a ceasefire in Gaza. Iran’s action was concluded, unless Israel decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful.” (Aljazeera, Oct 1, 2024)

There are two possible Iranian targets for Israeli attacks: oil refineries/installations and bunker-buster attack on nuclear facilities.

Pezeshkian stated that “if the Zionist regime (Israel) does not stop its crimes, it will face harsher reactions” (Reuters, Oct 2, 2024). Therefore, Iran’s response would be imminent with full force.

LIKELY ISRAELI RESPONSE:

“Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,” Netanyahu said hours after the unprecedented attack (CNN, Oct 2, 2024). A former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett called on Netanyahu to attack Iran’s nuclear and energy sites, claiming that “this could lead Iranians to rise up and bring down their regime at last. Israel has had no better chance in half a century to change the region fundamentally.” (The Atlantic, Oct 2, 2024)

There are two possible Iranian targets for Israeli attacks: oil refineries/installations and bunker-buster attack on nuclear facilities. “Iran has one of the largest refining sectors in the Middle East with about 2.4 million b/d of capacity in 2023 spread across 10 main sites. Its three biggest refineries are the 370,000 b/d Isfahan plant, the 360,000 b/d Abadan refinery, and the 320,000 b/d Bandar Abbas”. (S&P Global, Oct 2, 2024)

However, it is believed that by hitting the Iranian oil installations, the global oil prices would shoot up. “What is really on the table now and is more likely is an attack on oil facilities” (CNBC, Oct 2, 2024). The Iranian retaliation could mean increase in oil prices and disruption of supplies. If Iran chokes the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, the entire global oil trade would be disrupted. Importantly, Iran’s strategic Islands of Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs at the entrance of Strait of Hormuz have the capability to undermine the global trade and energy supplies.

The other option is to attack the Iranian nuclear installations, but these are deep inside Iran that would require use of Arab territory and refueling. To cover a radius of 3000-4000 kilometers would be a real challenge, unless the US aircraft carriers are used for attack. However, a former US army officer Jack Jacobs maintains that “Israel could also take aim at Iran’s nuclear facilities, but those buildings are hardened, making them difficult to destroy. A strike on those facilities could trigger an even larger ballistic missile attack by Iran that would be difficult to defend against” (CNBC, Oct 2, 2024).

“The phase of unilateral self-restraint has ended; individual self-restraint does not secure our national security requirements.”

However, if at all Israel wants to hit the Iranian nuclear facilities, nuclear power plants at Bushehr along the Persian Gulf coast are the most vulnerable and easy to target. But in that eventuality, prospects of Iran going nuclear would be much higher than any other time to come.

There is every likelihood that Israel would attack on the eve of first anniversary of the Oct 7 Hamas attack to make a significant impact; however, Tehran has conveyed to the United States through Qatar that ‘any Israeli attack against Iran would meet an “unconventional response” that include targeting Israeli infrastructure.’

“The phase of unilateral self-restraint has ended; individual self-restraint does not secure our national security requirements” (Aljazeera, Oct 3, 2024).

It is believed that Iran has pre-set and calibrated hundreds of missiles against designated Israeli targets, which would be launched when Israel carries out attacks against Iran. Therefore, the world is anxiously waiting for another showdown in the Middle East.

MIDDLE EAST IN TURMOIL:

Middle East has never seen a lasting peace in the last one century. But over the last one year (Oct 2023 – Oct 2024), the region has slid into deep turmoil and chaos with no respite. Israel has conducted deliberate genocide against the unarmed Palestinians in Gaza and launched attacks against four countries in the region: Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran. It has assassinated dozens of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders without breaking their will to resist. The ever- increasing heightened tension has posed severe danger of a regional war that may result in a perpetual destruction and mayhem. The fight for the political survival of Israeli prime minister would produce increased sufferings for the Palestinians and the outcome of Israel-Iran tit-for-tat would yield unimaginable consequences for the regional security and global order.

PTI Attacks Islamabad Using Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Govt Resources

Stratheia Research Desk

October 6, 2024

ISLAMABAD – The PTI used the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government resources to attack Islamabad where the party supporters resorted to violence, resulting in the martyrdom of a policeman and injuries to 70 others, during the violent protests on Oct 4 and 5.

Sources say the PTI not only transported armed miscreants from the province but also policemen in plain clothes, as they torched and damaged government installations. Many of them have been arrested, including 22 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Police and two Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) officials, they added.

The latest revelations further strengthens the case for imposing Governor’s rule in the provinces, as the PTI – a sympathizer of TTP terrorists – is repeatedly targeting the Centre and Punjab. Why? To press the state institutions to spare Imran Khan – the incarcerated party founder – who may soon face military trial for planning and executing the attempted coup plan on May 9, 2023.

RIGHT TO PROTEST?

Taking refuge in democratic values and rights to carry out anti-state activities has become a norm for PTI. It includes an organized propaganda designed to incite violence while citing freedom of expression and then executing violent acts in the name of right to protest.

It is said that Constable Abdul Hameed was performing duties at Chungi No 26 from where he was kidnapped before being tortured. He succumbed to his injuries in a hospital.

The Final Round!

Murtaza Solangi

October 5, 2024

Looks like the final round of the high-stakes and high-risk game is here. A populist Frankenstein nurtured under Imran Khan over decades, created for the sole goal of establishing an over-centralized unitary state using populist charisma has backfired and is out to eat up the creators and hellbent on taking the entire system down along with the country.

Let us look at the situation fast deteriorating as we speak.

After a series of missteps since his removal after he fell out with the establishment in April 2022, Imran Khan has embarked upon the path of suicidal brinkmanship. The dissolution of Punjab and KP assemblies aimed at creating powerful provincial governments before the general elections and rigging the National Assembly elections afterward through them didn’t work. It actually backfired and created an unprecedented caretaker setup in those provinces for over a year and the federal caretaker setup for almost six months.

Imran Khan… embarked upon the path of suicidal brinkmanship.

Imran Khan, advised by Gen Faiz Hameed, who he wanted to appoint the Army Chief, tried to stop the appointment of General Asim Munir and used all types of machinations and street actions but failed. His last most important action was to spur a mutiny in the armed forces on May 9, 2023. A coup d’état against the sitting Army Chief was the sole aim of the attacks on the military and intelligence installations.

After that, embroiled in multiple criminal cases including embezzlement and sedition, the only success story of the incarcerated leader is his social media prowess and the ability to use higher judiciary, the high court, and the Supreme Court to get unprecedented relief for him, his current wife and other party leaders. That situation changed after Qazi Faez Isa became the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

Also read: Gandapur Pushing For Governor’s Rule. You’re Gonna Get It

The democratic-minded CJ tried to carry the entire court with him by embracing the Practice and Procedure Act, unlike the previous CJs who relied on like-minded judges. The remnants of the old judicial system however successfully used the same democratic mechanism against the CJ by delaying bench formations on major constitutional cases that go potentially go against Imran Khan and his party.

The recent protests announced by Imran Khan in Islamabad and Lahore are his last-ditch effort with strategic and tactical calculations.

It is that backdrop that when everybody saw that the higher judiciary was being used as a sidekick to pull Imran out of the mess he threw himself into, the government and the establishment started thinking of judicial reforms snatching the new tools from the incarcerated leader licking his wounds in Adiala. Imran also saw the elements in the higher judiciary as a helping hand to protect him from the major cases against him especially the May 9 related cases with the potential of a military trial against him.

When the government made a botched effort to amend articles of the constitution after it had already changed election law, it pushed the incarcerated leader and his party into a frenzy for survival. Earlier Imran had directed his party to hold large public meetings in major cities like Islamabad and Lahore and asked Chief Minister Punjab to throw all provincial government resources to make a maximum impact. The reluctant Chief Minister tried but failed and earned the ire of the incarcerated leader.

With the government in overdrive to push the legislative agenda aimed at creating a federal constitutional court after the reversal of the Supreme Court decision under Imran’s favorite Supreme Court judges under CJ Bandyal in May 2022 effectively stopping defections at all costs, Imran has just gone bonkers and is making a last-ditch effort to create major chaos in the country. The recent protests announced by Imran Khan in Islamabad and Lahore are his last-ditch effort with strategic and tactical calculations.

The strategic goal is to stop the government from the constitutional amendments and somehow retain a pro-Imran judiciary that can help him come out of jail, overturn the results of the February 8 elections, and bring him back to power.

Imran is using the time frame before October 25 to somehow delay the Legislative train. He is using the provincial government as a pawn in this chess move. He would be happy to sacrifice the KP government in the process. The sacking of KP government serves many purposes. It helps incompetent provincial government from peoples’ wrath as the performance of the party is next to Zilch despite remaining in power for over a decade. The sacking gives the party a martyr status.

Soft towards TTP and Afghan Taliban, Imran has used the provincial government as a major blackmailing tool against the federal government and the military establishment to seek relief from the grinding wheel of the prosecutorial system denying his existence. Imran is using two calendar dates as bargaining chips.

Imran is using two calendar dates as bargaining chips: October 15… and October 25, the date of retirement of the current Chief Justice.

October 15, the day of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Islamabad, and October 25, the date of retirement of the current Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa. Imran wants chaos and bloodshed NOW to maximize his bargaining to push the government to stop the Legislative Train and scathing of the pro-Imran judiciary.

Leaders of PTI have now publicly said they will go ahead with the mayhem in Islamabad and especially Punjab till Imran himself calls off the protest. One of the leaders, Zain Qureshi, the son of former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has said in the talk shows that his party may postpone the protest if the government stops the Legislative Train till October 25, effectively spilling the beans on what their target is.

The government has now deployed an army under Article 245 of the constitution in the federal capital as well as the entire province of Punjab. The article denies that high courts, packed with pro-Imran judges, can provide relief under Article 199 of the Constitution.

As things stand, the confrontation is imminent and so is the bloodshed. The only saving grace for the federal, Punjab government, and the security establishment would be to finish this round really quickly and not invite the anger of the people who are facing tremendous hardships under siege due to roadblocks, and suspension of cellular and mobile internet.

Whosoever uses peoples anger to their advantage will be the winner.

Netanyahu Is Dragging Everyone Into War

Arsalan Raja

October 3, 2024

As the Iranian missile strikes impacted multiple locations in Israel on Tuesday, the world started watching the Middle East developments even more closely. It was a risk that Iran had to take after assassination of Hamas political chief Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. Silence was not an option. Israel successfully dragged Iran to the escalatory ladder barely a month before Americans go to the Nov 5 polls.

If Haniyeh’s killing right in the Iranian capital was embarrassing, the bombing of Hezbollah headquarters could only be described a massive strategic and psychological blow. So, it was not surprising that the Iranian government was under pressure at both domestic and international levels.

Hence, the timing of missile strikes was carefully chosen. Unlike the past when Iran went for late night hours to hit the US targets in Iraq or Israel itself, Tehran opted for a well-choreographed exercise. It showcased the Iranian pride by launching the Iran-made missiles in the evening so that the Iranian people could see the projectiles flying over their heads.

“The government wanted people to see” the launch of missiles and there was live coverage too, says Hamid Reza, who is a director at DiploHouse, in Tehran.

Similar views were expressed by Prof Fowad Izadi of Tehran University, who says public pressure was one of the reasons for carrying out the missile strikes.

One can’t blame the Iranian people as Israel is trying to cripple Hezbollah – the most power organization associated with Iran in the region – by constant bombing.

According to Izadi, it is the culture of resistance that generated this demand. Hence, the disappointment and despondence were replaced by celebrations, as a large number of people carrying Iranian, Palestinian and Lebanese flags came out on the streets.

HAS PAST IRAN ITS PEAK?

“Usually, decapitation hits involve the elimination of the head of an organization. What has happened to Hezbollah is not just the killing of its leader but the wiping out of nearly its entire military leadership and severe blows to its offensive capabilities.”

These views were expressed by Kamran Bokhari – a national security and foreign policy specialist – in a recent series of posts on X. He is serving as a senior director at Washington DC-based New Lines Institute.

Earlier in January 2020, Bokhari had said after the assassination of senior Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani that “Iran has long past its peak”.

ARE THE GULF STATES REALLY DESPERATE TO LATCH ONTO THE OPPORTUNITY?

Given the historic rivalry between Iran and the neighboring Arab states, it is important to understand about their priorities.

In this regard, Bokhari is of the opinion that the Gulf States have been pleased by the damage done to Hezbollah.

His argument means that they want a weakened and less influential Iran – the second-most powerful country in the Middle East after Israel.

“While publicly they will condemn Israel for destabilizing the region, the Arab states privately are likely celebrating over the massive blow to Hezbollah. Because it is a major blow to their biggest adversary Iran.”

He even sees an attempt to fill the possible vacuum created in Lebanon.

“Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will try to use this opportunity to revive Hezbollah’s opposition in Lebanon, which for decades had been reeling under the domination of the pro-Iranian Lebanese Shia Islamist movement. It is a historic opportunity for them but it is a major challenge for which they are likely not prepared.”

However, this thinking seems flawed and simplistic in nature given the fact that Iranian President Iranian Masoud Pezeshkian and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan have held a meeting in Doha. And there are reports that the Gulf States – which are the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members – assured Iran of their neutrality in the conflict with Israel.

‘ONLY ISRAEL WANTS AN WAR, NOT IRAN’:

Middle East has three main players: Iran, Israel and the United States. There is a general consensus that Iran doesn’t want a full-blown direct conflict.

In this connection, Reza says Iran has never desired a large-scale war, as “security and stability” are the top priority for Tehran.

He explains the often-repeated reasoning behind this approach: With Iran facing external threats like the Iran-Iraq war soon after the Iranian Revolution and the repeated terrorism acts in the country, it was necessary for Tehran to expand the concept of “security and stability” beyond its borders.

It is a direct reference to the Axis of Resistance, comprising Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and other groups in Syria and Iraq.

However, the critics describe this an attempt to export the Iranian Revolution to other countries and ensure Iran’s dominance in the region.

Coming back to the main players, Reza believes that even the United States isn’t ready for large-scale war. His views are seconded by many around the world.

However, one cannot be sure as far as the US is concerned.

It has President Joe Biden who doesn’t want any escalation in the Ukraine war and is not allowing the use of long-range missiles against the targets in Russia. But the same Biden is supplying all kinds of weapons to Israel which has killed over 41,000 Palestinians and around 2,000 people in Lebanon so far. In fact, Israel is expanding the war theatre constantly, with the latest reports suggesting Israeli jets pounding the coastal cities in Syria.

That’s why the promised ceasefire in Gaza hasn’t materialized so far, as the US is pleading the case for Israel’s right to self-defense. However, no has bothered to define this right of self-defense yet; hence, the expansion in Israel’s military actions.

ISRAEL HAS BIDEN AND MAYBE A TRUMP CARD AS WELL:

Notwithstanding his extremist nature and policies, Prime Benjamin Netanyahu has a solid case for receiving due recognition. Everyone talks about former US president Donald Trump for his role in the rise of far-right in the world, especially the developed West. People mention Brazilian Trump, Indian Trump, Hungarian Trump, Pakistani Trump and now the Argentinian Trump.

However, the fact of the matter is that Netanyahu was first to come into power 1996 and has since then really influenced the international affairs. And the potential second term for Trump after next month’s US presidential election means Netanyahu will get his solid ideological ally back in the Oval Office.

The Middle East tensions are certainly a boost to Trump, as he can now advocate his hardline policies towards Iran even more vigorously.

One cannot forget that it was Trump who had sowed the seeds of current turmoil by withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal after he won the 2016 election. And he is already using threatening language about Iran. Not a good omen for the world.

So, this leads us to the most important and most hated scenario: an all-out war in the region. Now add the possibility that Israel achieves its goal of ensuring complete capitulation of Iran at the end.

MAKE IRAN DOCILE. BUT HOW WILL YOU GET THAT?

The Middle East conflict has been all about addressing the Palestine question. Despite the Oslo Accords, the two-state solution is now a far-fetched dream as there is no appetite in Israel for recognizing the rights of Palestinians as a people. Hence, the dispute has now practically moved towards how to control Iran and its allied groups, which are listed as likeminded but independent groups by Tehran and proxies by its rivals.

Now, there are several questions: How Israel [and perhaps the US too] is going to make Iran docile? By making the Iranian allies ineffective and then striking Iran or working on both fronts? What kind of change Israel wants in Iran? Is it regime change? How? By backing separatist movements and other groups? What is the replacement?

The reason is that the current Iranian system will never accept any surrender, as it will bring the very existence of the Islamic Republic into question.

Meanwhile, all these options require violence, which cannot be condoned.

Also, the West, as well as Israel, must remember that they can’t repeat a 1953. Times have changed. What they had done back then? A joint operation by the American CIA and the British MI6 had toppled the government of Mohammad Mosaddegh.

But at the same time, there is even bigger problem with this approach. There is very little possibility of the Iranian people accepting any sort of subjugation despite the differences many of them may have with the theocratic state structure. Anyone thinking that this goal may be achieved isn’t on a right track.

Can one afford another failed or conflict-ridden state in the world and that too in a volatile region like Middle East? The answer is NO, although Netanyahu and the likeminded will disagree.

ANYONE READY FOR AXIS OF RESISTANCE FRAGMENTATION?

But the worst-case scenario gets even worse if we examine the whole equation by taking the Axis of Resistance into account.

Hezbollah, the Houthis and other groups are backed and armed by Iran, but they are a product of local ground realities and overall regional situation. Tehran has just taken advantage of the available resources.

If Iran is defeated militarily, then surely these groups will be weakened. But they won’t just vanish from the face of the earth.

Why?

Because Israel is there, the Palestinians are there, the Hezbollah supporters are there, the Houthis are there, the Shia-Sunni divide is there, the Arab-Persian divide is there, and the general discontent against the rulers in different states is there.

Currently, these entities have centralized command and control systems to sustain their respective organizational structure. But once you eliminate the leadership and destroy the structure, one cannot stop the members going violent and forming smaller militant groups.

It will be a nightmare for even the rival Arab states at a time when Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are pursuing economic diversification. The two governments have set high targets for economic growth and making their countries economic hubs, which requires “security and stability”.

Perhaps, this is the reason why Hussain Haqqani – a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, who is now associated with the Hudson Institute, says, “No one, least of all the Gulf countries, is looking for escalation.”

Certainly, regional stability and security is the prime focus for the Gulf States, which will face the brunt of a direct confrontation indirectly.

WILL OTHER GLOBAL POWERS REMAIN SILENT?

In today’s multi-polar world, one cannot ignore how China and Russia will act in case of a wider Israeli aggression.

The Chinese foreign ministry has said China opposes the violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity as well as any moves that fuel antagonism and escalate tensions.

Urging the international community, especially major countries, to play a constructive role and avoid further turmoil, China described the protracted fighting in Gaza as the root cause of the current Middle East.

Similarly, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson says the United States’ approach in the Middle East is a “complete failure” and “A bloody drama that is only gaining momentum. The White House’s incomprehensible statements demonstrate its complete helplessness in resolving crises”.

One must recall that China had brokered a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March last year, after decades of enmity and a formal cutting of ties in 2016.

At the same time, both China and Russia will push for a declining US influence in the region – a trend which is already in progress. It means that China, Russia and Iran have one common agenda – pushing the US out of the Middle East. However, how three countries want to achieve the goal remains unclear.

Meanwhile, China and Russia have been critical of the Israeli policies during the past year.

WHAT IS IN STORE FOR PAKISTAN?

In all likelihood, India will covertly support Israel in a campaign against Iran, while maintaining a public posture against escalation. This position is going to have a direct impact on the security of Pakistan, which will certainly be on a high-alert given the fact it shares borders will Iran.

At the same time, Pakistan will extend moral and diplomatic support to Iran, as any war in Middle East is against the country’s national interests, especially if Israel or the US support the separatists in Iran.

LIFE ON A SLIDE:

Meanwhile, Iran has shown patience amid the provocative and aggressive Israeli actions. That is why Izadi says Tehran didn’t respond after Haniyeh’s assassination although it had a right to do so under Article 51 of the UN Charter.

He says the US and the European nations had given an impression that a ceasefire would soon come into effect; however, not only the Palestinians continued facing genocide but the aggression and the resultant killings expanded into Lebanon.

Iran had to respond, otherwise, the Israeli actions would continue, he noted.

Amid an unending aggression, “this will remain a long-term government policy, although it may lead us to war,” warns Izadi.

On the other hand, Biden has now stated that the US will not back military strikes on the Iranian nuclear facilities and any response should be proportionate.

But one has to see whether Israel abides by the rules set by Biden, as Tel Aviv under Netanyahu has defied the US policies on multiple occasions in recent months.

At the same time, the latest developments show the prospects of an Israeli attack on Iran are increasing. It can target nuclear plants, missile launch pads, other military installations as well as oil and gas production centers. But one cannot rule out the possibility of Netanyahu opting for eliminating the top Iranian leadership by targeting their residences.

At a time when everyone is calling for prudent actions and restraint, it seems Netanyahu doesn’t want peace and stability. His policies represent the idea of a dominant Israel which doesn’t have any competitor in the region after complete annihilation of all possible rivals, thus making a perfect case against the white supremacists ever coming into power.

The Heavy Costs Of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah’s Assassination

Muhammad Hussain Baqeri

October 2, 2024

Confirming the news of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah’s martyrdom shocked the people of Lebanon, the resistance front, and the world, as Lebanon’s Hezbollah announced the martyrdom of its secretary general in an official statement on September 29.

On Friday, September 27, Benjamin Netanyahu, the criminal prime minister of the Zionist regime, had not yet finished his speech at the United Nations General Assembly when it was announced in Beirut that a series of airstrikes had targeted the headquarters of Hezbollah.

Lebanese public opinion, especially the Shiites and the people of the south, expects Hezbollah’s response to Tel Aviv to be crushing.

According to martyred Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, any violation of the rules of conflict will mean an “endless and unlimited” war.

Now, the question that arises for the people of Lebanon, especially the supporters of Hezbollah, is what goals the Zionist regime seeks to pursue by declaring an official war against Hezbollah and assassinating its secretary general.

WHAT DOES NETANYAHU WANT FROM LEBANON?

Haaretz military analyst Amos Hariel quoted the commander of a division in the Zionist regime’s army as saying, “If they [Hezbollah] are fast enough, we cannot catch them except in Haifa.”

This has been quoted in the context of the existing concerns in the military minds of the Zionist regime about a sudden attack of Hezbollah’s Rizwan Force after the start of the “Al-Aqsa Storm” operation on the morning of October 7.

However, these concerns were beyond Hezbollah’s movements, as the course of conflicts during almost a year of war showed.

At that time, the occupying army was quickly forced to deploy three military divisions in the north.

Also, Netanyahu’s government immediately ordered the evacuation of all residents living within three miles of the Lebanese border and moved them to hotels and other places at the government’s expense.

This decision turned about 60,000 Zionists into a burden on the economy and turned the border area into a security buffer zone inside the Zionist regime for the first time.

In September, Tel Aviv decided to change the equation and shift the weight of the war from Gaza to the Lebanese front. A front that had been prepared for war since 2006.

Daily attacks with guided missiles and mortar shells by Lebanon have destroyed about 70% of all houses in the Zionist settlement of Al Matla alone.

Tel Aviv changed its strategy.

In September, Tel Aviv decided to change the equation and shift the weight of the war from Gaza to the Lebanese front. A front that had been prepared for war since 2006.

Israel successfully delivered precise blows to Hezbollah, which culminated in the bombing of its headquarters.

The target of this attack was Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, several other leaders and cadres of Hezbollah, whose martyrdom will most likely move the war to a more intense stage.

“The coming years will witness the transformation of the northern front into the main military challenge that Israel is facing.”

This statement was not just a personal opinion of a military commander. It was part of the results of a project implemented by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) of the Zionist regime.

Most of the content of this project, titled “Future War in the North: Scenarios, Strategic Options, and Recommendations,” was published in 2021.

Some of its contents were not released due to security concerns and handed over as a confidential appendix to the competent institutions within the military apparatus of the Zionist regime.

This project aimed to evaluate the form of the future war in Lebanon and provide recommendations to policymakers. It drew on the opinions of a group of experts, including former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, former National Security Adviser and Director of Army Planning Giora Eiland, and former Chief of Military Intelligence Amos Yadlin.

According to this project, south Lebanon is one of the most dangerous threat circles for the Zionist regime because of its direct proximity to the border, which allows Hezbollah’s Rizwan force to infiltrate and launch a ground attack on population gatherings and military assets in the Galilee.

In addition, various reports say, Hezbollah has more than 150,000 missiles with various ranges, which threaten all the cities in Israel.

Along with Syria, Lebanon is placed in the “first circle” of threats by the Zionist regime’s army, while Iraq is in the “second circle,” and Iran and Yemen are in the “third circle”.

The failure of the “battle between wars” approach in dealing with the threat posed by Hezbollah meant that Israel had to adopt a new one – “campaign between wars”.

The nightmare that Zionist military experts feared was the occurrence of a simultaneous multi-front war in three circles at the same time as Gaza and the West Bank ignited, which they called Iran’s “Ring of Fire”.

The failure of the “battle between wars” approach in dealing with the threat posed by Hezbollah meant that Israel had to adopt a new one – “campaign between wars”.

Reasons? Hezbollah’s presence in Syria and the establishment of a land bridge connecting Iran to Lebanon through Iraq and Syria, which the Zionist regime officially stated in the army’s strategic document published in 2015.

This approach is classified as sub-threshold warfare and was implemented two years after its practical implementation in the field. It aimed at weakening Hezbollah’s capabilities by preventing the transfer of advanced weapons from Tehran to Lebanon and preventing the establishment of any military infrastructure in southern Syria. So, this approach was implemented through airstrikes and artillery barrages, relying on information and precision fires.

However, the new approach, despite its intensity, did not succeed in preventing the strengthening of Hezbollah’s arsenal for about a decade. The number of Hezbollah missiles has quadrupled from about 40,000 in 2006, many of which have been improved through the Precision Missile Project.

Also, Hezbollah started the production of indigenous drones inside Lebanon and, in addition to what it received from Iran, strengthened its forces with air defense systems.

Although these systems were not a significant threat to the advanced warplanes of the Zionist regime, it limited the ability of Israeli drones to fly in the Lebanese skies. According to the United Nations, Hezbollah’s air defense system managed to shoot down five large drones during the current war.

On the other hand, Hezbollah strengthened the presence of its fighters south of the Litani River on the border between Lebanon and Israel, which the Zionist regime considered a violation of Security Council Resolution 1701.

This resolution ended the 2006 war and emphasized the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces to the north of the Litani River and limiting the military presence south of the river to the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL forces.

In this regard, the military planners of the Zionist regime examined several scenarios to deal with Hezbollah and the Lebanese front.

FIRST, LAND MANEUVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE LITANI RIVER:

In early 2019, the occupying army discovered a network of tunnels that extended from southern Lebanon to near the northern borders, allowing the Rizwan Force units to penetrate into occupied Palestine.

Hence, the Zionist regime’s army destroyed these tunnels from the direction of occupied Palestine in an operation called “Northern Shield”. The planners believed that it would be difficult to weaken Hezbollah’s capabilities by using only the air force, and ground operations were also necessary.

Many of them emphasized the necessity of conducting ground maneuvers in the future war in the south of Litani River. A powerful, violent, but short-term maneuver aimed at destroying Hezbollah’s military capabilities in the border region, especially the missile bases and the Rizwan Force’s position.

This operation was carried out after the airstrikes that were carried out based on detailed and precise information. Also, it was recommended to gain essential achievements in the early days of the war in order to break Hezbollah’s will to fight.

At the same time as this ground operation, another maneuver in the Golan Heights, was proposed to eliminate the missile threats of Hezbollah’s allied militias in Syria.

Some voices also emphasized the importance of re-establishing a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon. While Giora Eiland, the former head of the National Security Council, called for the declaration of the Lebanese government as an enemy like Hezbollah and suggested targeting its infrastructure to put pressure on Hezbollah to shorten the duration of the war, other experts believed that the move will not be worth much. The reason they gave was that the Lebanese government does not have much influence on Hezbollah, which takes advantage of the weak capabilities of the government in providing services by filling the gaps and fulfilling the needs of its supporters.

A- Exit Goals and Strategies:

The purpose of war in this scenario is to achieve victory, in the sense that the military achievements turn into political and security successes.

So, this goal will be achieved by imposing the conditions of the Zionist regime for the end of the war and the military defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria after destroying its military capabilities and infrastructure, and creating conditions that make its military reconstruction impossible for a long time. This scenario is based on an exit strategy designed to end the war after inflicting a heavy cost on Hezbollah and the Lebanese government by attacking its infrastructure.

Then, negotiating to end the war with conditions that include the establishment of new rules of the game. It requires the destruction of Hezbollah’s presence south of the Litani River, preventing its presence near the Golan and creating conditions that would make the reconstruction of Hezbollah very difficult or even impossible by blocking the weapons transfer routes from Iran to Lebanon.

Also, only the Lebanese army will be deployed in the south along with UNIFIL forces under the title of “responsibility of the Lebanese government in all Lebanese territories.” For this purpose, strict mechanisms will be used to monitor implementation of the agreement.

However, the Israeli military planners have suggested that all possible options be used to achieve the desired goals before starting the implementation of this scenario. Why? They are afraid of entering into a long war that may wear out its army or fail to defeat Hezbollah.

There is also concerns over a wider regional war in which other actors of the resistance axis, especially from the Syrian front and Iran, will intervene. This situation can lead to a war on several fronts and difficulty controlling the military campaign’s scope and duration.

B- On the Eve Of The Ground Operation In The South Of Litani:

By evaluating the current situation on the Lebanese front, we can see that the Zionist regime army has started to implement part of the preparatory operations for the ground operation since mid-September 2024.

In this operation, Hezbollah’s military chain of command was weakened by carrying out large-scale assassinations. Those who were targeted included Hezbollah operations commander Ibrahim Aqeel and his companions Ibrahim Qubaisi of Rizwan Force and Mohammad Sarwar of the Air and Missile Forces. This operation was carried out after the assassination of Fuad Shekar, the military commander of Hezbollah.

In addition, Hezbollah’s communication network and about 4,000 of its members were targeted by exploding pagers and wireless devices. Also, weapons warehouses and missile platforms have been destroyed in a series of large-scale airstrikes. It ultimately led to the destruction of Hezbollah’s central command headquarters in southern Dahiya, and martyrdom of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah and other leaders.

These rapid and widespread attacks seek to destroy Hezbollah’s operational efficiency and present to two difficult choices to it:

a) Continuation of the war in a situation where extensive losses and heavy blows are inflicted on the leadership and its human and non-human resources.

b) Or withdrawal and acceptance of the ceasefire conditions set by the Zionist regime, which includes the separation of the Lebanese front from Gaza, the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces to the north of the Litani river, and weakening it as much as possible, which ultimately will lead to its disarmament.

SECOND, GROUND OPERATIONS TO BEIRUT:

A number of radical military politicians of the Zionist regime argue that if Hezbollah withdraws from southern Litani, it will soon rebuild its military capabilities with the help of Iran. Also, Hezbollah has created a new communication network and will deploy its forces in the south of Litani again in the future.

This would mean a return to the pre-war situation and the loss of all military gains.

Considering the status quo, Zionist politicians demand the implementation of ground operations in Beirut in order to create a strategic change in the internal situation of Lebanon. This scenario carries with it the risks of starting a comprehensive and long regional war, which requires the military operations of the Zionist regime against the Iraqi groups supporting Hezbollah, the Shiite militias in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. The reason is they will not stand by and watch, while the Zionist army is trying to break the power of Hezbollah and recapture Beirut.

Therefore, the main goal of this scenario is the collapse of what is called the “Axis of Resistance” formed by Iran and a change in the power equation in the Middle East.

This issue will ultimately lead to a direct confrontation with Tehran to destroy its nuclear program and prevent the reconstruction of the military capabilities of Iran’s allied groups.

This scenario will most likely turn into a protracted, multi-front war that will require heavy reliance on US military support and the political support that Washington provides to the Zionist regime.

Tel Aviv alone is not capable of such a large-scale war. Neither the number of soldiers and warehouses of ammunition and spare parts nor its economy and social structure allow Israel to engage in a long and brutal war.

Assaf Orion, the former head of the strategy department of Israel’s army, in an article published in the Foreign Affairs said the Zionist regime has not fought on two fronts simultaneously since the October 1973 war.

The war, which lasted less than a month, is in accordance with the traditional security theory of the Zionist regime. It emphasizes the beginning of a short war in the enemy’s land to avoid the disadvantages of limited population and lack of strategic depth and lack of local resources necessary to continue long military campaigns.

Targeting Iran as The Main Prize:

The second scenario – reaching Beirut – does not only seek to achieve the goals pursued in the south Litani maneuver but also includes larger objectives which are designed to change the face and fate of the region.

These goals include the destruction of Hezbollah as the most dangerous military threat to the Zionist regime due to its proximity to Israel’s borders and military capabilities, then targeting the “octopus head” in Tehran as described by the Zionist regime.

Eyal Zamir, a former deputy chief of staff of the Zionist regime and the current director general of the Ministry of Defense, in an in-depth study published in 2022 called for an approach that would force Iran to retreat into its own borders. This is done by targeting IRGC leaders and forces inside and outside Iran, destroying the country’s weapons factories, and creating an American-Zionist-Arab axis to weaken Tehran’s influence in the region.

India’s Unregulated Defense Exports

Shah Meer

October 2, 2024

A recent report on the Indian manufactured ammunition entering Ukraine during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has again shifted attention on India’s growing defense industry and its credibility in terms of compliance with international obligations on the export of military and dual-use items. India has long-maintained tradition of violating international legal and regulatory frameworks for its strategic ambitions.

India, the world’s largest arms importer, is trying to boost its defense industry to become a leading arms exporter.

India has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) besides obtaining a Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver, which has been utilized for bolstering military capabilities in nuclear domain. It also exports arms to Myanmar’s military junta and had fueled the Sri Lankan civil war with weapon supplies in the past. And New Delhi is now involved in exporting artillery shells and other ammunition to Ukraine through European countries.

India, the world’s largest arms importer, is trying to boost its defense industry to become a leading arms exporter. Indian defense market has seen robust growth in recent years. The value of defense production in the country stood at $11.6 billion in 2018-19 and reached $15.3 billion in 2023-24. New Delhi has set a defense production target of $25 billion by 2025. However, no official Indian document enlists targeted interventions and strategies to boost defense production. There comes the most lingering question that can lead to strategic ambiguities: how can India continue the growth of its defense production?

India is increasing its defense production under the aegis of threat perception from China and Pakistan. Recently, India’s Chief of Army Staff Manoj Pande said in a statement that renewed geopolitical tensions emphasize the need for reliable weapon supplies.

In addition to arms supplies to Indian army, New Delhi can export military equipment to the troubled regions or conflict zones primarily to Ukraine via European countries or the war-torn Middle East to boost its defense production. Commercially available customs records show that before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Indian defense export stood at $2.8 million and between February 2022 to July 2024 – during the Russian invasion of Ukraine – the figure increased significantly to $135.25 million. Seeing India’s growing ammunition exports to European states their net-user violations and increasing supply chains for Ukraine, Russian officials have raised the issue with India at least on two occasions.

Despite its poor nuclear safety and security record as well as expanding unregulated defense exports, India faces no pressure and criticism from the international community.

Similarly, several civil society groups, authors, activists, and lawyers have urged India in a press conference in New Delhi to stop arms export to Israel which is a direct violation of the Convention on Genocide signed and ratified in 1959. The speakers cited reports indicating that after Israel was accused of genocide by several international humanitarian aid organizations. However, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) and the Department of Defense Production repeatedly granted licenses to three companies — Munitions India Ltd, Premier Explosives Ltd, and Adani-Elbit Advance Systems India Ltd — to export arms and ammunition to Israel.

At the same time, several political leaders within India, including those from the opposition and Modi’s allies, have urged the government to stop contributing to the heinous genocide of the Palestinian people perpetrated by Israel.

Despite its poor nuclear safety and security record as well as expanding unregulated defense exports, India faces no pressure and criticism from the international community. Given this, India is likely to continue its arms export primarily because of five reasons even if they do not meet the international criteria.

First, changing geopolitical situations on India’s continental borders will force it to rely on internal supply sources to meet its strategic and security objectives. Second, new procurement of weapons will necessitate the replacement of nascent technologies with old obsolete equipment. Third, India’s internal security threats and growing militancy, security of a very vast landmass, and policing purposes will demand reliable internal arms and ammunition supplies. Fourth, the urge to gain economic growth and Modi’s Made in India initiative requires that defense production must grow by leaps and bounds. Fifth, higher investments in the arms manufacturing sector can make way for market competition and innovation that can again contribute to economic growth. Most importantly, it will leverage its role in the US grand strategy against China as a ‘net security provider’ to bypass international pressure.

In short, India’s growing unregulated arms exports have not only fueled war in Europe but also helped Israel cause a humanitarian crisis and a full-fledged genocide of the people of Palestine. New Delhi has also failed to ensure its credibility to comply with the international standards of arms export that reflect its ambitious mindset and the culture of realpolitik that respects no international standards, human dignity, or global peace, but power pursuit at the cost of others.

The Effectiveness Of Israel’s Sabotage Operations

Syed Raza Abbas

October 1, 2024

Victor Ostrovsky, in his book “By Way of Deception: The Making of a Mossad Officer”, argues that Mossad literal motto is “By deception, thou shalt do war”. Israel established its first psywar unit after the second Intifada (Palestinian uprising) circa 2000-2005. The unit was named “Malat” in Hebrew, meaning “the Center for Consciousness Operations,” and it became operational at the time of the second Lebanon war in 2006.

Malat was made operational for the three main purposes: Hamas militants, the civilian support base of Hamas, and general Palestinian citizens living in the Gaza Strip. Although the main purpose of Malat was to target the Palestinian population, it now conducts psychological and sabotage operations in other countries along with “Mossad,” Israel’s premier intelligence agency.

Malat was made operational for the three main purposes: Hamas militants, the civilian support base of Hamas, and general Palestinian citizens living in the Gaza Strip.

The recent sabotage operations that Israel conducted, such as the assassination of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran as well as the pager and walkie-talkie explosions to target Hezbollah members, were a preparation of the foundation for something substantial. These were followed by the air campaign that targeted Hezbollah-dominated regions of south Lebanon and the capital Beirut. The Israeli air campaign was also successful in killing the chief of Hezbollah, Syed Hasan Nasrallah, last week on Friday night at his bunker in Beirut. Israeli air force used American-made BLU-109s 2000-pound bombs to kill the Hezbollah chief. These bombs are also known as “Bunker Busters” which can penetrate deep into the ground to take out the target. At least 15 BLU-109s were fired on the target location.

Meanwhile, the earlier operation involving the explosion of pagers and walkie-talkies – just days before the killing of Nasrallah – is a perfect example of inflicting psychological terror. Twenty people were killed and more than 450 wounded in Wednesday’s attack, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health. And a day before, thousands of Hezbollah pagers exploded, killing at least 37 and wounding more than 3000 people, including some children. The primary target of those exploding electronic devices were Hezbollah-dominated regions such as Beirut and its southern suburbs – Hermel, Baalbek, Saida, Nabatieh, Tyre, Naqoura, and Marajayoun.

The earlier operation involving the explosion of pagers and walkie-talkies – just days before the killing of Nasrallah – is a perfect example of inflicting psychological terror.

Reportedly, people across Lebanon after those explosions are feeling traumatized and nervous. People using non-military walkie-talkies in civilian spheres have also abandoned using them due to the fear of being booby-trapped.

Amid the rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah since the start of the latest conflict on October 7, both parties are engaged in sub-conventional level conflict. This sabotage operation serves two purposes for Israel. First is that Israelis may have intel about a potential operation that Hezbollah was about to conduct against Israel. The successful execution of this operation has thwarted Hezbollah’s plans to conduct any military venture against Israel because their communication medium is almost choked. The second purpose is to inflict the fear of being surveilled all the time by the Israeli intelligence network. This operation would have certainly sent shockwaves into the operational command of Hezbollah, making them appear vulnerable to Israeli sabotage operations.

Hezbollah would now be looking inward to solidify its operational command and communication systems rather than focusing on the threats emanating from Israel. The Israeli security apparatus uses such tactics with utmost precision and has achieved credible success in going forward with such misadventures.

The assassination of Hamas political chief Ismael Haniyeh happened just a month ago in a similar mysterious way. Haniyeh was in Iran to attend the oath-taking ceremony of newly-elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. He was killed in an explosion at a state guesthouse in Tehran on July 31, 2024. The fact that how Mossad carried out this operation is yet to be ascertained, but there are different theories that revolve around Haniyeh’s murder.

According to BBC, the killing was carried out using the “short-range projectile,” fired from outside, which caused the explosion and killed the Hamas chief along with his bodyguard. The New York Times investigative story claims that the bomb was smuggled into the Tehran guest house two months ago.

Israeli sabotage operations have almost become routine in Iran, and Tehran seems helpless in countering it.

The fact of the matter is whether the explosion was caused by the explosive installed within or from a projectile launched from outside is not important here. What is important is that Israel was successful in assassinating one of the top commanders of Hamas in Iran. This assassination also raised some serious questions about the capability of the Iranian security establishment. Israeli sabotage operations have almost become routine in Iran, and Tehran seems helpless in countering it. That’s a success of Israel’s military cum psychological operations.

The assassination plot of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsin Fakhrizade was hatched in a similar manner by Mossad. Top Iranian nuclear scientist Fakhrizade was assassinated in November 2020 in a sophisticated hit led by a Mossad team that reportedly deployed a computerized machine gun. It required no on-site operatives, took less than a minute, and did not injure anyone else, including the scientist’s wife who was with him at the time. The weapon and its mounted device were smuggled into Iran in bits and pieces months before the operation. The Mossad team handled the whole operation from a command center outside the country.

Israel is a textbook example of a security state, and its attitude toward security is not normal.

A report, based on the interviews of American, Israeli, Iranian, and two intelligence operatives involved in the operation, says Mossad has been following the movements and career trajectory of Fakhrizade since 2007.

Fakhrizade was a physicist by profession and was considered to be the father of the Iranian nuclear program. Mossad and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) hatched the assassination plot in late 2019 and early 2020. The time of execution of this operation was chosen to serve the purpose of both country’s administrations. Former US President Donald Trump wanted re-election, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted to sabotage the possibility of revival of the Iran nuclear deal. The operation went in the favor of Israel but proved fatal for Trump, as he lost the 2020 presidential elections to Joe Biden.

Israel is a textbook example of a security state, and its attitude toward security is not normal. It inflicts psychological terror on its opponents to keep them at bay. They justify their actions based on Zionist ethos and deem those steps necessary for the survival of a Jewish state. The ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip, which has now expanded into Lebanon, is a perfect example of “how Israel deals with the security threats”. Israel is willing and ready to violate any article of international law and diplomatic norms to safeguard its security interests. Similarly, in dealing with Iran, Israel will use any tactic available in its arsenal with no regard for its legality, morality, and acceptability.

The Israeli sabotage operations that are followed by the fierce air campaign of south Lebanon and the ground invasion will prove catastrophic for the region. The looming clouds of a regional war in the Middle East are on the horizon. Israel is looking for a direct military confrontation with Iran because it knows that Iran lacks the conventional wherewithal and relies more on the network of its proxies. So much now depends on the reaction of Iran, as Israel has pushed them almost to the point of no return. If Tehran doesn’t restore the deterrence equation, Israel’s next target could possibly be the Supreme Leader of Iran.

Populism Or Fascism? How Imran Khan’s Vendetta is Shaking Pakistan

Dr Shama Junejo

October 1, 2024

Imran Khan, once again, sits in jail but has not abandoned his political playbook. He has issued a call on Monday from Adiala jail for a new sit-in at D-Chowk, Islamabad — a tactic that reminded me of 2014 when his 126 days of prolonged sit-in caused the cancellation of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit, halting critical economic discussions. This move and the continuous calls of failed but chaotic rallies and protests threaten to sabotage the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, scheduled for October 15 and 16 in Islamabad. Given the importance of this moment for Pakistan’s economy, regional and domestic tensions, and international alignments, can we afford to let history repeat itself?

This is not a fight for civilian supremacy but rather an effort to regain personal power at any cost.

Economically, Pakistan cannot afford this instability. Thanks to an IMF loan, the nation has narrowly avoided default, and the SCO summit presents an important opportunity to Pakistan for bolstering regional ties and securing further investments. Additionally, Pakistan’s potential to join BRICS could be a game changer, offering alternatives to the US-dominated global financial system. However, Imran’s relentless political agitation is undermining these prospects.

Also read: Gandapur Pushing For Governor’s Rule. You’re Gonna Get It

Since his ouster in 2022, Imran’s brand of populism has adopted new dimensions of a dangerous tone. While he projects himself as anti-establishment, the reality is that his political movement is precisely driven by personal vendettas, particularly against current Chief of Army Staff Gen Asim Munir. This is not a fight for civilian supremacy but rather an effort to regain personal power at any cost. The May 9 riots, where military installations were attacked, represent an unprecedented challenge to the military’s authority, signaling not just defiance but a planned uprising to overthrow Gen Asim Munir. Meanwhile, the judiciary has also played a vicious role by not convicting any accused being a vital partner of Imran’s crusade against the military.

Hence, I recall a significant conversation with Gen Pervez Musharraf during my PhD research. Musharraf advocated that military intervention in politics was essential for its ‘survival’ to discourage civilian penetration of political heroism. However, I argued — and time has proven — that by endorsing Imran Khan, the military compromised its institutional integrity, tearing apart its internal cohesion. The trial of Lt Gen (retd) Faiz Hameed — marking the first prosecution of a former spy chief — is an unprecedented consequence of this failure. Faiz, who once aligned himself with Imran to be the future army chief, reportedly orchestrated an attempted rebellion within the army after his retirement, a failed coup against Gen Asim Munir. This attempted rebellion culminated in the infamous May 9 riots, which saw military installations attacked, further proving the dangers of politicizing military leadership.

The continuous calls of failed but chaotic rallies and protests threaten to sabotage the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.

The catastrophic failure of “Project Imran” did not just expose the vulnerabilities within the army; it shattered Musharraf’s narrative of institutional unity that the military had so carefully curated since the creation of Pakistan. In my PhD research, I extensively elaborate on post-project Imran’s “citizen-soldier paradox”, where soldiers, once revered as apolitical state protectors, have found themselves entangled in the political chaos incited by a civilian leader, to cause a rift in their intact institution.

However, Imran’s ambitions have not just dragged the military into his power struggle; his influence has also seeped into Pakistan’s judiciary and bureaucracy. Pakistani judiciary often played a dodgy role against parliamentary supremacy, but now judges have even rewritten the constitution to accommodate Imran, which is grave misconduct.

Imran’s ambitions have not just dragged the military into his power struggle; his influence has also seeped into Pakistan’s judiciary and bureaucracy.

That is where I see the nation in grave jeopardy and divided. Military cooperation with civilian governments on national security is essential globally. Still, it has morphed into something political in Pakistan, where the civilians brag about being on the same page regarding security matters. What began as a collaboration for the state’s protection has decayed into personal vendettas, distorting the role of institutions like the judiciary and bureaucracy.

Meanwhile, military’s involvement with Imran has not only harmed its neutral standing but fostered a perception of control behind the scenes — a perception as damaging as it is untrue. The instability caused by these actions has reverberated across Pakistan’s already weakened institutions. Judiciary, military, and civilian leadership are now locked in a power struggle that risks tearing the country apart.

The arrest of Faiz and the potential military trial of Imran are not isolated events but part of a broader institutional collapse. Once propped up by the establishment, Imran has become its most significant threat to fulfil foreign agendas, with May 9 marking a turning point in this evolving crisis.

The writ of the state has to be intact because Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) requires stability due to ongoing terrorist activity in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Attacks on Punjabi laborers by Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) militants and terrorist strikes on Pakistan Army soldiers in Waziristan are all part of a broader conspiracy to destabilize the country. These attacks are designed to make China reconsider its investment in Gwadar, a critical piece of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. With Gwadar serving as a strategic replacement for the Malacca Strait, any regional instability could lead China to question whether Pakistan is a dependable partner.

Also read: Afghan Taliban, Al Qaeda Asked For FATA Revival. Imran Said Yes

At the same time, the region’s instability has also been compounded by the escalating conflict between Israel, Hamas and now Hezbollah, coupled with increasing Israeli acts of aggression in the name of self-defense. Though Imran has not publicly advocated for Israel, the apparent support he receives from Israeli lobbies in the US and Israeli media outlets raises questions about the broader foreign agenda at play. A coordinated campaign at international forums, including resolutions against Pakistan and the PTI letters to the IMF, adds fuel to the conspiracy that some forces are invested in pushing Pakistan toward political and economic chaos.

The catastrophic failure of “Project Imran” did not just expose the vulnerabilities within the army; it shattered Musharraf’s narrative of institutional unity.

Pakistan is already caught between great power politics as its strategic pivot toward China and Russia intensifies amid growing strains with the US. Joining BRICS could provide economic benefits, such as bypassing US dollar reliance. Still, Imran’s actions risk derailing these ambitions. His smartly crafted anti-establishment narrative serves foreign interests that would benefit from Pakistan’s destabilization. The timing of his sit-in and repeated calls for disruption during critical international moments, such as the upcoming SCO summit, cannot be dismissed as coincidental.

His tactics also call into question the integrity of the country’s judiciary and military. By aiming to create continuing chaos through Gandapur, conspiring for a divide between military and civilian governance, exacerbated by populist rhetoric, he fosters an environment where all state institutions are jeopardized, and so is the nation. Due to this perpetual chaotic populism, Pakistan’s institutional collapse may become a reality despite the selfless efforts of the current government because the judiciary is not letting the executive governor deliver justice. Thus, the military trial of Faiz may be the military’s last effort to reassert its control within the institution for survival, and if it happens, Imran’s potential military trial may extend beyond conventional politics. If he faces a military court, it will signal a decisive end to his political career, forever altering the country’s political landscape.

1...181920...147 Page 19 of 147

temp mail on Why Web Development Matters?December 23, 2024
Standing ovation! This post perfectly balances depth with accessibility. Your thorough research and expert explanations make this an invaluable resource.…
Blue Tech on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – Falling Out From State System?December 10, 2024
Blue Techker Good post! We will be linking to this particularly great post on our site. Keep up the great…
Blue Tech on What is Behind Putin’s Nuclear Threats?December 10, 2024
Blue Techker You’re so awesome! I don’t believe I have read a single thing like that before. So great to…
Blue Tech on Nouveau DemocratDecember 10, 2024
Blue Techker Good post! We will be linking to this particularly great post on our site. Keep up the great…
Blue Techker on India’s Nuclear Submarine Program Raises Security Concerns for PakistanDecember 10, 2024
Blue Techker I truly appreciate your technique of writing a blog. I added it to my bookmark site list and…

Write For Us!

Opinions, Analysis, and Rebuttals.

StratheiaPolicy Journal

A Global Digital Think-Tank on Policy Discourse.

Israel has launched massive airstrikes on Gaza killing over 42,000 civilians, mostly women and children, over 96,000 injured and millions displaced.

Israel crossed the Iranian ‘red lines’ when its plan of high-profile targets led to the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran.

Netanyahu also directly threatened that “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that is true of the entire Middle East”.

Iran had no option but to take retaliatory action against Israel for the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership and to restore Iranian deterrence.

There are two possible Iranian targets for Israeli attacks: oil refineries/installations and bunker-buster attack on nuclear facilities.

“The phase of unilateral self-restraint has ended; individual self-restraint does not secure our national security requirements.”

Imran Khan… embarked upon the path of suicidal brinkmanship.

The recent protests announced by Imran Khan in Islamabad and Lahore are his last-ditch effort with strategic and tactical calculations.

Imran is using two calendar dates as bargaining chips: October 15… and October 25, the date of retirement of the current Chief Justice.

Whosoever uses peoples anger to their advantage will be the winner.

In September, Tel Aviv decided to change the equation and shift the weight of the war from Gaza to the Lebanese front. A front that had been prepared for war since 2006.

The failure of the “battle between wars” approach in dealing with the threat posed by Hezbollah meant that Israel had to adopt a new one – “campaign between wars”.

India, the world’s largest arms importer, is trying to boost its defense industry to become a leading arms exporter.

Despite its poor nuclear safety and security record as well as expanding unregulated defense exports, India faces no pressure and criticism from the international community.

Malat was made operational for the three main purposes: Hamas militants, the civilian support base of Hamas, and general Palestinian citizens living in the Gaza Strip.

The earlier operation involving the explosion of pagers and walkie-talkies – just days before the killing of Nasrallah – is a perfect example of inflicting psychological terror.

Israeli sabotage operations have almost become routine in Iran, and Tehran seems helpless in countering it.

Israel is a textbook example of a security state, and its attitude toward security is not normal.

This is not a fight for civilian supremacy but rather an effort to regain personal power at any cost.

The continuous calls of failed but chaotic rallies and protests threaten to sabotage the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.

Imran’s ambitions have not just dragged the military into his power struggle; his influence has also seeped into Pakistan’s judiciary and bureaucracy.

The catastrophic failure of “Project Imran” did not just expose the vulnerabilities within the army; it shattered Musharraf’s narrative of institutional unity.

Share with Us

Opinions, Analysis, and Rebuttals.