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New World Order

By
Dr. Zukun Lyu
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In recent decades, global political and military landscapes have witnessed significant shifts.

In recent decades, global political and military landscapes have witnessed significant shifts. Various longstanding conflicts are approaching their decisive ends, with both sides of warring groups threatening nuclear destruction. It’s vital to examine the intricate dynamics shaping the “New World Order” and examine its implications for global power structures, particularly in relation to Pakistan, China, and the United States.

One cannot overlook the significance of Gwadar, a port city in Pakistan, in the context of global power struggles. For over a century and a half, the world’s powers have coveted Gwadar due to its strategic location. The port plays a crucial role in the geopolitical strategies of major powers, especially China. China’s interest in Gwadar is part of a broader strategy to secure trade routes and reduce transportation costs. The port serves as a vital link for China’s trade with Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, and it significantly cuts down the distance for transporting crude oil and natural gas from the Arabian Sea to Kashgar.

This strategic positioning ensures China’s reduced dependency on longer, more vulnerable routes, thus bolstering its economic and military strength.

The concept of a “New World Order” gained prominence in the 1980s when the Soviet Union collapsed, leaving the United States as the sole superpower. During this period, China was still lagging behind the US in political, technological, military, and economic arenas. It was then that President Reagan declared the ambition to establish a New World Order and envisioned future wars being fought from space—a claim that eventually fizzled out. In those years, the US aimed to dominate the world economy and military for the next century, keeping oil and gas-producing countries under control and preventing the resurgence of Russia and the rise of China. This vision was encapsulated in the “Project for a New American Century,” which sought to cement US supremacy in the 21st century. This ambitious project aimed to reshape global politics in favor of the United States, ensuring its dominance in every aspect of international affairs.

By 2014, the geopolitical landscape had shifted dramatically. China and Russia began to challenge US dominance. China’s strategic moves in the South China Sea and Russia’s assertive actions in Syria marked the decline of unquestioned US supremacy. New conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and the South China Sea, further complicated the global power dynamics. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a flagship project, aimed to enhance connectivity and cooperation across Asia. However, internal and external challenges impeded the progress of CPEC.

The US, seeking to counter China’s influence, found allies within Pakistan’s establishment, leading to disruptions in CPEC’s implementation.

The competition between these global powers reflects broader strategic interests. China’s investments in infrastructure projects like CPEC are designed to create new trade routes, reducing reliance on traditional maritime paths that are susceptible to disruption by the US and its allies. On the other hand, the US has been keen to limit China’s growing influence by supporting opposition within Pakistan and strengthening ties with India, a regional rival of China.

The political landscape in Pakistan also played a crucial role in shaping the future of CPEC. Military and political leaders such as General Raheel Sharif and General Qamar Javed Bajwa faced significant pressures and challenges in balancing national interests with external influences. The appointment of General Asim Munir marked a potential turning point, with hopes for a renewed focus on CPEC and strengthened Sino-Pakistani relations. Pakistan’s internal dynamics have often influenced its foreign policy decisions. The complex relationship between civilian governments and the military has led to shifts in how Pakistan aligns itself with major powers. The fluctuating support for CPEC within Pakistan reflects these internal struggles, where different factions vie for control and influence over the country’s strategic direction.

Over the years, the United States faced successive setbacks in its attempts to maintain global dominance. The rise of China and Russia, coupled with persistent conflicts in various regions, eroded US influence. The formation of alliances such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS signaled a shift towards a multipolar world order. China’s pragmatic approach to winning skirmishes and Russia’s willingness to use nuclear weapons highlighted the diminishing effectiveness of US strategies.

The SCO’s agenda of combating terrorism and establishing peace underscores the collaborative efforts of emerging powers to reshape global order.

The changing dynamics are evident in various global conflicts. In the South China Sea, China’s assertive claims and construction of artificial islands have led to heightened tensions with neighboring countries and the US. Meanwhile, Russia’s involvement in Ukraine and Syria has demonstrated its willingness to challenge US influence directly. These actions have showcased the growing confidence of these nations in asserting their power on the global stage.

The current geopolitical climate suggests that the era of unchallenged American dominance is coming to an end. The rise of China and Russia, along with the emergence of new alliances, indicates a transition towards a more balanced distribution of global power. This shift has significant implications for international relations and global stability. The SCO and BRICS represent efforts by emerging powers to create alternative institutions that can counterbalance Western-dominated organizations like NATO and the IMF.

These groups aim to promote economic cooperation, security collaboration, and political dialogue among member states, offering a platform for non-Western countries to assert their interests collectively.

The new world order that is taking shape is characterized by a multipolar structure where no single nation can claim absolute dominance. This could lead to a more stable global environment, provided that major powers can navigate their differences and find common ground on issues like trade, security, and environmental sustainability.

The concept of the “New World Order” has evolved significantly since its inception in the late 20th century. Today, the world stands on the brink of another major transformation. The decline of American hegemony and the rise of China and Russia signal the end of the old order and the beginning of a new one. As global power dynamics continue to shift, the importance of strategic locations like Gwadar and initiatives like CPEC will play a crucial role in shaping the future of international relations. The world watches closely as these developments unfold, heralding a new era in global politics and power structures. The challenge for all nations will be to navigate this complex landscape in a way that promotes peace, stability, and prosperity for all. The emerging multipolar world order offers both opportunities and challenges, requiring careful diplomacy, strategic foresight, and a commitment to international cooperation.

A Turning Point in Pak-US Diplomatic Relations

By
Corinna Perini and Dr. Sahibzada M. Usman
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Independence Day is celebrated with great fanfare on the Fourth of July every year in the United States.

Independence Day is celebrated with great fanfare on the Fourth of July every year in the United States. Exactly 248 years ago, on the Fourth of July in 1776, 13 colonial states of North America unanimously declared their independence from the British Empire. This significant moment laid the foundation for the United States of America, a country that eventually rose to the status of a global superpower. The pursuit of equal rights, freedom of expression, and a prosperous life among the American people was enshrined in the Declaration of Independence, shaping the ethos of the nation.

Post-World War II, the United States emerged victorious, and the collapse of the British Empire led to the emergence of various independent states, including Pakistan. The diplomatic relationship between Pakistan and the United States dates back to the early years of Pakistan’s independence. The first Prime Minister of Pakistan, Liaquat Ali Khan, prioritized establishing strong ties with the United States, viewing it as a leader in democratic values, freedom of expression, and human rights.

This initial move was a significant expression of confidence in the United States and set the tone for future interactions between the two countries.

Over the decades, Pakistan and the United States have experienced fluctuations in their relationship, marked by periods of close cooperation and instances of mutual distrust. During the Cold War, Pakistan and the United States found common ground in countering the spread of communism, leading to military and economic partnerships. However, the relationship was not without its challenges. Events such as the Soviet-Afghan War saw Pakistan playing a pivotal role, with substantial support from the United States. Yet, the post-Cold War era introduced new dynamics and complexities into their bilateral relations.

One recent incident that has strained these relations is the approval of Resolution 901 by the US House of Representatives on June 25, 2024. This resolution has sparked significant debate and controversy, highlighting both support and criticism from various quarters. Resolution 901 calls for strengthening ties with the Pakistani government to ensure democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. It acknowledges the significant participation of Pakistani citizens, including women, youth, and minority groups, in the general election held on February 8. The resolution urges the US President and the Secretary of State to support democratic and electoral institutions in Pakistan and to ensure the freedoms of press, assembly, and expression.

Furthermore, the resolution calls for a full and independent investigation into alleged irregularities and interference in the February 8 election, emphasizing the importance of maintaining transparency and integrity in the electoral process. The resolution has received substantial media coverage, igniting a debate on international diplomacy and the extent of US involvement in Pakistan’s internal affairs.

Supporters of the resolution argue that it represents a commitment to upholding democratic principles and human rights. They view it as a necessary step to support Pakistan in its journey toward a more transparent and accountable democratic system.

However, the approval of Resolution 901 has been met with mixed reactions. Some observers view it as a positive sign of international support for democratic values and human rights in Pakistan. They believe that such external pressure can encourage necessary reforms and strengthen democratic institutions in Pakistan. On the other hand, many analysts criticize it as an undue interference in Pakistan’s internal matters. They argue that the resolution undermines Pakistan’s sovereignty and could lead to further complications in an already complex political landscape.

The Pakistani government has responded strongly, condemning the resolution and passing a counter-resolution that describes the US move as regrettable and intrusive. This development has introduced a new rift in the long-standing relationship between Pakistan and the United States. The diplomatic fallout from Resolution 901 is seen as a negative development in Pakistan, exacerbating existing tensions. The government of Pakistan has officially reacted with strong disapproval, asserting its sovereignty and the need to handle its internal affairs without external interference.

Interestingly, predictions made in December last year, based on Vedic Astrology, foresaw the current post-election situation in Pakistan. The approval of Resolution 901 aligns with these predictions, suggesting that Pakistan will face new challenges and increased global scrutiny in the coming months. These astrological predictions had indicated a turbulent period for Pakistan, with potential political and diplomatic upheavals. The current situation seems to validate these forecasts, highlighting the complexities and uncertainties facing the country.

Given the current situation, it is crucial to consider the motivations behind the American initiative carefully. A strategic and measured response is needed to navigate the diplomatic complexities. US allies, including India, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, may also reevaluate their bilateral relations with Pakistan in light of this resolution.

These countries could use the resolution as a basis to justify their own diplomatic stances and policies towards Pakistan, further complicating the regional dynamics.

The approval of Resolution 901 also raises questions about the broader implications for international diplomacy. It underscores the delicate balance that countries must maintain in addressing internal issues while engaging with external partners. The response from Pakistan indicates a broader concern about sovereignty and the right to self-determination. This situation highlights the challenges faced by nations in maintaining their autonomy while navigating the complexities of global politics.

As the United States celebrates its Independence Day, it is a moment for reflection on the importance of prudence, seriousness, and tolerance in international relations. The leadership of both Pakistan and the United States must exercise caution to avoid actions that could further strain their relationship. It is essential to foster dialogue and cooperation, emphasizing mutual respect and understanding.

Diplomatic efforts should focus on finding common ground and addressing concerns in a manner that respects the sovereignty of both nations.

While congratulating the American people on their Independence Day, it is hoped that the top leadership of both nations will approach this sensitive issue with the wisdom required to maintain and strengthen their diplomatic ties, rather than allowing distances to increase. It is a time to recognize the shared values and common interests that have historically underpinned the Pak-US relationship. Moving forward, both nations must prioritize constructive engagement and seek solutions that promote stability, democracy, and human rights.

Ultimately, the approval of Resolution 901 by the US House of Representatives has introduced a new dimension to the Pak-US relationship. While it underscores the importance of democratic values and human rights, it also highlights the challenges of international diplomacy and the need for careful consideration of sovereign issues. The path ahead requires a balanced approach, focusing on dialogue and mutual respect to navigate the complexities of this evolving situation.

Pakistan and Emerging Global Order

By
Mushahid Hussain Syed
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Global order

Within the last fortnight, three separate but related events are pointers to the emergence of a new, alternative global order rooted in Asia and the Global South, providing exciting new opportunities for Pakistan. I was fortunate to be participating in two of these three events. On 19 June, Russia, as the current chair of BRICS, hosted a major international event on BRICS in the Far Eastern port of Vladivostok. 29 countries, including Pakistan, are applicants for membership in BRICS, which now includes almost half the world’s population, contributing 30% of global GDP and 50% of global oil and gas producers amongst its members. Pakistan hopes to join BRICS as it wants to be part of the new emerging order of the Global South. Pakistan, as a member of the UN Security Council from 2025 to 2026, will also be a robust voice for peace, justice, and the Global South.

Pakistan’s election to the UN Security Council for 2025-2026, its participation in the International Transport Corridor initiative, and the deepening of the Pakistan-China Strategic All-Weather Partnership underscore its pivotal role in the emerging global order.

Then, on 28 June, President Xi Jinping hosted an International Conference on the 70th Anniversary of the 5 Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, which was the first Asian alternative to the then-existing Western-dominated global order. On 3 July, the Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) met in Astana. Pakistan was represented in all these three major events.
These events took place in the context of three fundamental shifts in the contemporary world order. First, the decline of the West and the concurrent rise of the Global South, with ‘The Economist’ (9 May, 2024), aptly announcing that ‘the (post World War II) Western liberal international order seems to be coming apart’.

Second, China’s phenomenal rise, particularly in advanced areas of science and technology, is a force multiplier in Beijing’s quest to spearhead and spawn the emergence of an alternative world that is not based on the fading hegemony of the West but upholding the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. America’s Harvard University carried out a research report on ‘China versus the United States – The Great Tech Rivalry,’ which noted that ‘China seems to be overtaking the U.S. in hi-tech manufacturing, especially in Artificial Intelligence, 5G, robotics, cloud computing and STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics)’.

The Economist, in its cover story on 15 June, called China ‘the scientific superpower’, concluding that the ‘old science world order, dominated by the United States of America, Europe and Japan, is coming to an end’. The Economist cites some interesting facts in this regard: 40% of original research papers on A.I. are now emanating from China, with only 10% from the US and another 15% from Europe/UK; out of the top 10 scientific research universities, 6 are in China; Tsinghua University, alma mater of President Xi Jinping, is the top university in the world in science and technology today, and China’s spacecraft is the first to bring samples to earth from the hard-to-reach side of the moon.

Third, the US and the West have already embarked on a new Cold War to ‘contain’ China and curtail its rise. NATO, which is based in Europe, now labels China as a ‘threat’, and after the recent G7 Summit in Italy, The New York Times splashed its report of the Summit: ‘China joins the G7’s List of Adversaries’, citing ‘28 references to China in the final communique, almost all of them describing Beijing as a malign force’.

China’s rise as a scientific superpower, particularly in areas like AI, 5G, and robotics, is reshaping the global landscape. This shift is evident in China, which produces 40% of original research papers on AI, compared to 10% from the US and 15% from Europe/the UK.

While the West, or, more precisely, the US military-industrial-complex, which is becoming a permanent war machine, prepares for a New Cold War, with a mindset steeped in the Cold War of the past, the contours of an emerging global order are already apparent, replacing the post World War 2 Western-propped global economic and political order, which is already unraveling.

Organizations like BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) would be the pillars of this emerging new global order, which will derive its strength from the United Nations Charter, international law, and the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, rejecting hegemony, military diktat, and double standards.

An expanded BRICS and SCO can make a major contribution to promoting three major trends of contemporary international relations:

  • Democratization of international relations through dialogue and inter-state relationships based on equality, reciprocity, and the rule of law;
  • Demilitarisation of international relations, as the Western world order in the 21st Century, is in the grip of a new Cold War hysteria, arming Israel to kill Palestinians or promoting ‘Asian NATO’ and building groups like QUAD and AUKUS to contain China and Russia;
  • DeDollarisation of the international financial system, with the US often using the dollar currency as a political weapon, as now 68 of 193 member states of the UN are already embarked on this process, while Saudi Arabia, on 9 June 2024, has ended its 50-year-old agreement with the United States regarding petrodollars and Saudi oil is now also trading in non-dollar currencies.

On 14 June, the initiative of President Putin for a new Eurasian Security paradigm was unveiled, based on indivisible security of nations so that no one country’s security can be at the expense of others, which is similar to the earlier endeavour of President Xi Jinping for a ‘Global Security Initiative’. At Astana, President Putin termed the SCO as ‘one of the key pillars of a far, multipolar world order’.

Russia and China have also taken an upfront principled position on the Gaza Genocide, underlining Israel has lost the war politically, morally, legally, and diplomatically, and Israeli supporters in the declining West have also been exposed for their double standards as they are complicit in aiding and abetting the Gaza Genocide, which is a crime against humanity under international law and the UN Charter.

Recent events, such as the BRICS summit in Vladivostok, the International Conference on the 70th Anniversary of the 5 Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, and the SCO Summit in Astana, highlight the rise of a new global order led by Asia and the Global South, offering new opportunities for Pakistan.

Pakistan, given its historical role and location, has already embarked on being an active part of the new global order unfolding now, with three specific developments. Pakistan’s election to the United Nations Security Council for 2025-2026 underlines Pakistan’s growing role as the spokesperson of the Global South, especially as the Voice of the oppressed Kashmiris and Palestinians. Then, Pakistan accepted President Putin’s invitation to join his signature initiative of an International Transport Corridor.

At the same time, the successful visit of the Pakistan Prime Minister to China and the ensuing Joint Statement are a historic blueprint for the future direction of the Pakistan-China Strategic All-Weather Partnership. Three elements of the Joint Statement are significant. First, it refers to the content and quality of the bilateral bond as being based on ‘unshakable mutual trust’ and in an oblique reference to the presence of Army Chief General Asim Munir in the Prime Minister’s meeting with President Xi Jinping, that cooperation among the two neighbors militaries stems from ‘high level of mutual trust playing an irreplaceable, critical role in ensuring strategic balance in the region’ (meaning vis-a-vis the regional bully, India).

Second, Pakistan endorses that China’s path to modernization provides a new option and practical solution for developing countries and that the ‘Thought of President Xi Jinping has opened up a new path for handling international relations in a proper way.’ Third, both Pakistan and China expressed support for an ‘equal and orderly multipolar world and inclusive and universally beneficial economic globalization’ while opposing ‘hegemony, domineering and bullying, exclusionist approaches, power politics and unilateralism in all forms.’

China also expressed support for ‘Pakistan playing a bigger role in regional and international affairs.’ Significantly, President Xi Jinping told the Pakistan Prime Minister and Chief of Army Staff that ‘China views relations with Pakistan from a strategic and long-term perspective.’

Given this context, Pakistan has Strategic Space to pursue an autonomous foreign policy that needs to weave in a triangular focus on providing a Healing Touch at home for political stability, Regional Reset with neighbours focusing less on security and more on geoeconomics, and taking an upgraded CPEC forward, together with SCO and support for BRICS, to be the pivotal player in regional economic connectivity as a whole new world is opening up through economy, energy, roads, railways, ports and pipelines.
As the Latin maxim goes: ‘Carpe Diem’, ‘Seize the Moment’!

Balochistan’s Universities in the 2024-25 Fiscal year

By
Dr. Siraj Bashir Baloch
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Balochistan Higher Education

Universities are well known for their contributions to knowledge, innovation, and civilizational development in human history. Universities have made immeasurable contributions to world history, politics, economics, civilizations, and all aspects of human life; they have also played a significant role in shaping the basic structure of contemporary society.

The concept of a university dates back several centuries. Notable institutions, such as the University of Bologna (1088), the University of Paris (1150), and the University of Oxford (1096), laid the foundation for higher education as we know it today. These early universities were centers of theological and philosophical thought—indeed, they shaped the intellectual climate in which we existed.

As history crawled, universities literally became centers of scientific research and technological innovation. The Renaissance and the Enlightenment likewise saw universities play a critical role in driving humanity forward intellectually. In the 19th and 20th centuries, industrialization and technological revolutions were beacons powered by research universities. Institutions like Stanford and Cambridge became synonymous with leading discoveries and inventions that changed entire industries. This led to an increase in the living standards of individuals worldwide.

Universities provide a space for universal cultural variety, open debate, and civic responsibility.

In addition, universities serve as sociocultural hubs. Although new challenges constantly emerge for the future of higher education and research, they remain trusted allies in the face of transformation. A university is sometimes called upon to lead problem-solving, such as overcoming social and political conflicts. At the same time, culture and history are written into universities’ working environments. Universities are also the keepers of the flame for knowledge, forever promoting the deeper understanding of human heritage that arises from intellectual exploration.

Balochistan’s journey to higher education started late compared to other provinces in Pakistan. Since the founding of the University of Balochistan in 1970, 10 other universities have been established. Hence, despite various challenges, these universities have made great strides in educating the young people of Balochistan. The graduates they produce go on to work in a variety of fields, from medicine and engineering to the social sciences, arts, and humanities. Their potential remains largely unused because of structural faults and chronic underinvestment.

Universities of Balochistan face a range of challenges that bar their way to delivering quality education and fostering innovative new thinking. These include a lack of adequate facilities, a shortage of funds, and not enough qualified administrators. Last month, the Balochistan government passed the 2024–25 annual budget and only allocated PAK 5 billion for Balochistan universities. This budget only covers salaries, and there is not much money left to do anything in support of academic advancement or research activities.

The consequences of this underinvestment are severe. Universities cannot invest in innovative research laboratories, libraries, and technology without proper funding. This puts a brake on the creative and intellectual vitality of students and faculty alike. Nor can universities carry out any serious research that would be helpful to local and provincial problems—from economic development issues to social harmony in society itself.

The essence of a university is to generate new knowledge, encourage innovation, and nurture creativity. If the purse strings are tied up with operational costs such as salaries, this will kill off the university’s core mission. Creativity and innovation, marks of an advanced society, cannot bloom under the stifling effect of lack of funding on academic freedom.

No research into new projects or fields, including no groundbreaking studies, is pursued by faculty members, and the whole province remains starved of global academic exchanges.

A paradigm shift in how the government views and funds higher education is needed for Balochistan to reach its full potential. Investing in universities is not a luxury but a prerequisite for sustainable development and lasting peace. A well-funded university system can push economic growth by creating a skilled, innovative workforce, drawing in investment, and nurturing entrepreneurship.

The lack of research and development investment means that students have no opportunities to participate in cutting-edge projects. At the same time, teachers will forgo their original work, and the outside world will remain cut off from dialogue with academia.

The current budget for Balochistan’s universities cannot meet their needs and betrays a shortsighted approach to development. For the government to truly develop the universities of Balochistan, a more multifaceted approach is needed. Priority one is to ensure that the universities have a large budget for operations, research, infrastructure development, and technology.

Second, Balochistan must develop partnerships with international universities and research institutions to benefit from global best practices and innovations.  Third, the best approach would be to enhance the existing universities in Baluchistan rather than establishing new ones.

Fourth, faculty and students must be actively involved in research activities to cultivate a strong research culture in Balochistan. Research-driven faculty can drive innovation by garnering grants, cooperating with industry, and publishing findings in well-recognized journals. However, their own expertise can also draw in research funds, allowing students to do projects that really mean something. Driven students, on the other hand, contribute new ideas, fresh perspectives, and innovative research, frequently delving into uncharted fields and pushing the limits of existing understanding.

Higher education is not just a cost; it’s an investment in human capital and our most powerful tool for the future.

This is an investment that the government must make to secure a better future for Balochistan’s youth. If Balochistan is to thrive, the government must substantially increase higher education. This investment will bear fruit in the form of economic growth, social and political stability, and a more enlightened, innovative society. If today we neglect research, then tomorrow, the world will neglect us, and we will never develop. Balochistan’s future depends on the strength and vitality of its universities.

Astana Gears Up for Historic Meeting Summit of SCO 2024

By
Info Desk
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SCO summit 2024

Astana, July 4—Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, will host the Summit of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the Independence Palace—one of the critical events under the Chairmanship of the Republic of Kazakhstan. This makes this year’s summit quite significant, as Belarus will become an entire member country, and the number of SCO member states will increase to ten.

The SCO Summit will bring together an impressive group of world leaders. As part of the summit, the Presidents and Prime Ministers of Kazakhstan, India, Iran, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus will convene. Again, present are leaders from observer states and dialogue partners such as Mongolia, Azerbaijan, Qatar, UAE, Türkiye, and Turkmenistan.

The heads of the United Nations (UN), Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Eurasian Economic Community (EEC), and the Islamic Organization for Food Security (IOFS) will also attend.

Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif is in Astana to attend the summit, and a high-power delegation is scheduled to hold meetings with world leaders. He has already met President Putin and pledged to boost mutual trade to 1 billion dollars.

Pakistan became a full member in the same city, Astana, in 2017 when Nawaz Sharif participated in the meeting.

Indian PM Modi has decided to skip the meeting on a flimsy pretext that many analysts believe indicates that India doesn’t want to be too cosy with the organization headed by China. Last year, while India hosted the SCO summit, it changed it into a virtual meeting to avoid the presence of Pakistani and Chinese heads of government in Delhi. Next year, China will host the SCO summit.

Kazakhstan assumed the chair of the SCO in July 2023, and the President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, identified critical priorities meant to promote regional security and economic cooperation. During Kazakhstan’s chairmanship, the SCO took up the torch of the theme “On World Unity for a Just Peace and Harmony,” focusing on confidence-building to ensure stability under the current pressure from global geopolitics.

The leaders are expected to approve the Astana Declaration, 20 resolutions, and three critical statements at their summit. Other important issues to be addressed include the approval of the program “On World Unity for Just Peace, Harmony and Development” and “On SCO Improvement,” discussion on how to enhance multilateral cooperation, consideration of international and regional problems, and how to improve the comprehensive multi-dimensional collaboration inside the SCO.

The most important outcome of the summit, whereby Belarus’s accession has been worked out as a full member status in SCO, is a historic move in the sense that it paves the way for expanding the organization’s membership. Such a change signals the need for the SCO to have an increasing say on the international stage at a critical time when international relations seem to worsen by the day.

Along with the main summit, an extended “SCO Plus” meeting will be held under the slogan “On World Unity for Just Peace, Harmony and Development.” This meeting intends to create a platform for dialogue between member states and observer countries of the SCO. Attention is to be paid, especially to expanding spheres of cooperation and ways to jointly overcome existing threats to sustainable development and peace​ (Kazinform).

The Press Centre of the Summit will be situated at the Palace of Peace and Reconciliation, which will provide full technical support to all media representatives.

Accredited journalists will be able to register directly at the entrance to the Center on the morning of July 4. Operations at the event will work in a well-regulated mode to provide comprehensive coverage of the event. The Press Centre will telecast all events, excluding the closed meeting of the Council of Heads of the SCO Member States, in line with SCO regulations​ (The Astana Times). The detailed program for the summit will feature delegations’ arrivals, joint photography sessions, the meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of State, a signing ceremony for final documents, and the SCO Plus meeting. The summit will end with a press release by SCO Secretary-General Zhang Ming​ (The Astana Times).

Kazakhstan’s visionary approach during its chairmanship has been lauded, in particular, by SCO Secretary-General Zhang Ming. Since the beginning of the leadership, more than 100 events have been organized by Kazakhstan, including forums on energy, digital, and tourism, as well as more than 30 documents in the different fields of cooperation. One of the main projects Kazakhstan has pushed is the creation of a SCO Investment Fund and an economic preferences base, representing, according to information provided by The Astana Times, the very concept of “hot economics, cold politics”​ (Kazinform)​​.

The summit in Astana will be an important event that should draw many points for defining the organization as a critical factor for regional cooperation and a contributor to global issues. With almost half of the world’s population and combined gross domestic product over $23 trillion, its power is surging. The entry of Belarus into this league is a severe matter of development and depicts the resolve of the SCO towards attaining comprehensive regional development (Kazinform).

The country’s leadership keeps pressing that the only way out of the contemporary problems of the global world is through practical, cooperative solutions.

2024, “Year of Ecology” will be on top of the strategic program, supported by all member states through the initiative that will dictate a strong move towards sustainable development. Initiatives against terrorism, separatism, and extremism programs are to be passed during the summit to be taken up for discussion along with SCO anti-drug strategy ​(Kazinform).

The World is watching Astana closely as world leaders gather there for the SCO Summit. What is decided and announced here will determine the future direction of regional and international cooperation. The SCO Summit 2024 will be a big step not only for Kazakhstan’s chair but also for intensive collaboration and unity at the regional and global levels.

New Gas Reserves in Sindh

By
Dr. Hamza Khan
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Pakistan's energy sector has received a significant boost with the announcement of new gas reserves discovered in Sindh.

Pakistan’s energy sector has received a significant boost with the announcement of new gas reserves discovered in Sindh. Following Mari Petroleum’s recent discovery, Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) has also reported a substantial find in the Latif block of Khairpur district. This discovery comes at a crucial time when the country is grappling with depleting energy resources and increasing demand. The latest discovery will add more hydrocarbon reserves and help increase the local hydrocarbon supply in the country, potentially reducing the gas demand-supply gap.

PPL, formed in 1950 with a primary focus on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, initiated the drilling of the new well on May 5, 2024. The drilling reached its target depth of 3438 meters, unveiling a reservoir capable of yielding 11.27 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCF) of gas. This discovery is particularly significant given the current scarcity of gas, which meets approximately 35% of Pakistan’s energy requirements. The successful drilling and identification of new gas reserves highlight PPL’s continued commitment to enhancing the country’s energy security.

Natural gas is a vital component of Pakistan’s energy mix, used extensively as fuel in factories, vehicles, and homes. Gas remains an essential energy source for various sectors, including manufacturing, transportation, and domestic consumption. However, pre-existing reserves are rapidly depleting, leading to a pressing need for new discoveries to ensure a steady supply. The recent findings by PPL and Mari Petroleum are therefore highly encouraging, offering hope for enhanced local hydrocarbon supply and a reduction in the gap between supply and demand.

In a country where energy shortages often lead to power outages and industrial slowdowns, these new reserves are a welcome development.

Pakistan is endowed with significant natural gas reserves, primarily located in the provinces of Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In Sindh alone, gas is being extracted from 13 different locations. The province of Sindh has historically been a key area for gas production, contributing a large portion of the national output. Additionally, large deposits of oil and gas have been discovered in Kirk and Dera Ismail Khan, further highlighting the country’s potential in the energy sector. These regions have been instrumental in sustaining Pakistan’s energy supply over the years. The country’s diversified geographical presence of gas reserves is a strategic advantage, enabling continuous exploration and production activities across different regions. This diversity also mitigates the risk of over-reliance on a single source or area, ensuring a more balanced and resilient energy supply network.

Mari Petroleum, one of Pakistan’s largest energy and exploration companies, recently informed the stock exchange about the discovery of new gas reserves in the Ghazi Formation in Sindh, which will yield five million MMSCF of gas per day. Mari Petroleum’s continued success in exploration underscores its role as a major player in the country’s energy sector. Furthermore, the Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDCL) has resumed production from the Nashpachar well in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which is expected to reduce the country’s import bill by $59.85 million. These discoveries by multiple companies demonstrate a collective effort to enhance Pakistan’s energy self-sufficiency.

The discovery of new gas reserves holds significant economic implications for Pakistan. By harnessing its natural resources, the country can manage its declining economy more effectively. The addition of new hydrocarbon reserves will not only boost local supply but also help reduce the reliance on imported energy, thereby alleviating the financial burden on the country. Energy imports have historically strained Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, contributing to economic instability. Reducing dependency on imported gas can help stabilize the national currency and improve the overall economic outlook. Additionally, increased local production of natural gas can lead to job creation in exploration, drilling, and related industries. The development of new gas fields requires skilled labor, technical expertise, and infrastructure development, all of which contribute to economic growth.

The energy sector’s expansion can also stimulate investments in ancillary industries such as equipment manufacturing, transportation, and services, further boosting the economy.

The contribution of new gas reserves to Pakistan’s economy cannot be overstated. Energy is a critical driver of economic activity, and ensuring a stable and affordable supply is essential for sustained growth. The manufacturing sector, which relies heavily on natural gas, can benefit from lower energy costs, leading to increased production and competitiveness in both domestic and international markets. Reduced energy costs can also translate into lower production costs for goods and services, benefiting consumers through lower prices. Moreover, the transportation sector, particularly public and commercial transport, can gain from a steady supply of natural gas, promoting the use of cleaner and more cost-effective fuel alternatives. This can lead to reduced operational costs and enhanced efficiency, contributing to economic stability.

The discovery of new gas reserves also enhances Pakistan’s strategic position in the region. By increasing its energy self-sufficiency, the country can reduce its vulnerability to external energy supply disruptions and geopolitical risks. This stability can attract foreign investments, as investors seek stable and reliable markets with secure energy supplies.

The announcement of new gas reserves in Sindh by PPL and Mari Petroleum marks a promising development for Pakistan’s energy sector. These discoveries will contribute to meeting the country’s energy demands, support industrial and domestic needs, and provide a much-needed boost to the economy. As Pakistan continues to explore and develop its natural resources, the future of its energy security looks increasingly optimistic. By leveraging its natural gas reserves, Pakistan can strengthen its economy, reduce its import dependency, and pave the way for sustainable growth and development.

Rapid Increase in India’s Nuclear Forces

By
Dr. Zafar Khan
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0
Indian Nuclear Forces

Like the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) also produces credible reports about the status of all nine nuclear weapon states. This concerns their deterrent force modernization, doctrinal posture, and geopolitical and geostrategic reasons. Unanimously, these leading institutions argue that due to the return of great power politics primarily based on geopolitical reasons, nuclear weapon states do not only modernize but also increase their nuclear forces.

The recent SIPRI document reveals that India possesses more nuclear forces than Pakistan.

Even before the publication of the SIPRI report 2024, many Pakistani security analysts, including the author of this piece, predicted by critically analyzing that India’s Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) was on many mega force development programs in all types of air, land and sea domains of forces besides increasing its strategic partnership with a number of leading countries such as the US, France, Russia and Israel. The policy for such a juggernaut force development program remains consistent irrespective of who is political power in India. Consistency in the state’s policy matters to help achieve the desired goals.

India has developed many nuclear power plants, and quite a few of them are not under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) additional protocol. The US-India nuclear deal signed in 2005 ultimately led to the Nuclear Suppliers Group’s (NSG) special waiver to India in 2008. It is interesting to note that NSG was initially created in response to India’s nuclear tests in May 1974. Out of these nuclear power plants, India can produce lots of fissile materials helping India to develop many nuclear warheads. Along with other leading nuclear weapon states, India does not agree to cut off the existing fissile materials as prescribed in the proposed Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT).

India is aggressively following on a number of major force development projects such as the Ballistic Missile Development (BMD), Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), sophisticated air-defence systems such as S-400, nuclear-powered submarines, Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs), short and long ranges ballistic missiles including that of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), hypersonic missile, and even the aspiration for testing the H-bomb.

These deterrent force delivery systems will require lots of warheads. The more India aspires to develop sophisticated delivery systems, the more warheads it will require and the farther it will get away from the minimum deterrence it initially conceptualized.

It is argued that India often omits the term “minimum” from its declared policy of credible minimum deterrence. That said, what is minimum against China cannot be minimum for Pakistan. Realistically, this is the dilemma that India may never get out of unless it officially declares that it no longer practices minimum deterrence.

All this is noted, India is rapidly increasing its nuclear weapons. Many may consider this for geopolitical reasons because of the fast-evolving global strategic environment where India exploits this to the best of its strategic advantage. Others consider this for security reasons, as many Indian security analysts think both the rise of China and nuclear Pakistan are a threat to India’s potential rise in the so-called Indo-Pacific region. Still, others view India’s rapid increase of its nuclear forces as an opportunity to demonstrate its power projection, escalation dominance and military aggression against its rivals in the broader South Asian region.

This will have policy implications for India. India will demonstrate its dominance over others. It will assert that the Indian Ocean is India’s ocean. It will then push out others from its declared hemisphere, including that of the US. It will expand its naval bases in the Indian Ocean region. India will keep maximizing its power potential by containing its rivals. The more it maximizes its power, the more it undermines the security of its rivals to recall the classic “fear” factor emitting out of the security dilemma. Security dilemmas increase fear, competition, arms races, alliances, and crisis instability.

Given the evolving systemic security dilemma in South Asia, Pakistan may continue to produce effective countermeasures by plugging the deterrence gaps against its rival.

This is reflected by full spectrum deterrence falling within the ambit of credible minimum deterrence. Despite being pushed for an arms race, Pakistan may not desire an aggressive arms race, but it would need to keep a strategic balance for deterrence purposes. Strategic balance rather than parity could be a suitable policy option for Pakistan to prevent its adversary from preemptive strikes. In addition to this, revisiting the proposed strategic restraint regime, confidence-building measures (CBMs), nuclear CBMs, nuclear moratorium, etc., may also contribute towards broader strategic stability in South Asia.

Shanghai Spirit as the Linchpin of Asian Century

By
Sara Khan
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0
SCO Summit 2024

The formidable Eurasian bloc SCO is set to become another brick in the beautiful edifice of multilateral cooperation as the world battles a complex tapestry of challenges. Representing more than 40pc of the world population and a quarter of global GDP, the resounding appeal of Shanghai spirit remains relevant to foster rational regional order. SCO rejuvenation is the quintessential embodiment of the multilateral world order to navigate the intricacies of emerging geopolitical and economic challenges jointly. The spectacular diplomatic clout of SCO is also one of the factors behind the surprising geopolitical calm in Asia.

Striking a defiant note, this year’s summit; comprising the most powerful nations across Asian landmass, is crucial as Russian ally Belarus could join the bloc in a historic breakthrough.

Asian powerhouses hope the latest meeting will pave the road to a pan-regional trade and connectivity regime with Central Asian members as a focal point. The prospects of peace in Afghanistan after the hasty US withdrawal could accelerate the pivot to Asia as the landlocked strategic country is the geographic linchpin of economic integration. SCO’s staunch efforts to craft a joint front towards pressing issues such as insurgency, separatism, the volatile situation of Afghanistan, and smooth implementation of connectivity projects debunk myths regarding the budding military alliance.

On the contrary, the inclusion of another major regional power, Iran, recently, in the SCO Council of Heads anchored the bloc’s standing as a symbol of a multipolar world order. Xi Jinping brilliantly articulated the spirit of solidarity in the 15th meeting of the Council of Heads of States “It is my conviction that by upholding the Shanghai Spirit and acting with unity and mutual support, we will surely enable the SCO to grow from strength and make new strides in a new historical stage”

The geopolitical context of SCO formation revolved around long-standing border disputes, confidence building among regional countries, and the promotion of multilateralism. As the politico-economic clout of its original founding members increased, the forum was largely seen as an instrument of balance of power against Western exceptionalism.  The rise of global militant threats and extremist proxies bequeathed another chance of unity to SCO members in 1998.

This institutionalized security cooperation strengthened strategic partnerships and finally resulted in the establishment of a Regional Anti-Terrorist structure. The initial agenda of economic cooperation was transformed into multi-billion dollar infrastructural projects, and an inter-bank consortium was established to finance these regional connectivity projects. Amid the promising rise of the SCO, Indian intransigence inflicted a debilitating blow to the broader idea of multilateralism last year, as Modi’s obduracy limited the agenda in the summit chair.

Under New Delhi’s rotational watch, last year’s virtual SCO summit emphasized a callous disregard for the core efforts of the organization and asymmetrically focused on cultural facets of a forum: start-ups and innovation, ayurvedic remedies, youth empowerment, and recognition of shared Buddhist heritage. Indian confrontational approach against Xi’s notion of a “Community of common destiny” is a deliberate attempt to frustrate the multilateral spirit of SCO.

Against this background of multi-layered interaction between regional and global politics, the 24th meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO in Astana might prove to be a watershed moment in the steering of the bloc from ideologically driven security divergences toward action-based collaboration.

The multi-vector foreign policy of Kazakhstan is an attempt to untie collective strength toward inclusive multifaceted collaboration by SCO that can leave a momentous mark on the global stage.

Remembering the fact that this Central Asian country was a place where the project of the century, the “Belt and Road Initiative,” was proposed, the latest summit could infuse impetus into connectivity projects that would transform landlocked regions into trade hubs.

Astana Times revealed that Kazakhstan would submit a draft of the World Unity for Just Peace and Harmony as it looks to unify efforts to find peaceful solutions to simmering conflicts in the region, with geopolitical rivalry continuing unabated. The area has been burning with the trio of terrorism, separatism, and terrorism, and it hit members of Pakistan and Russia hard with terror attacks. So, security coordination may also emerge as the lynchpin issue at the Astana summit.

Underlining unique diplomatic breakthroughs, SCO has gathered keen global attention as it provides the example of a harmonious agenda despite varied models of governance, different cultural contexts, civilizational foundations, foreign policy objectives that are independent, and diverging models of development among its members. There are systemic attempts to brand SCO as an anti-West strategic alliance or Asian NATO though the bloc’s discussions have repeatedly called for a new type of international order based on equity, harmony, and economic integration. If, prior to its summit, the bloc had outlined a plan to increase the share of national currencies in bilateral trade between members, this paradigm shift could be taken unaccounted for by the US. Openness has been a defining feature of SCO since its inception.

Singaporean ex-diplomat and author Kishore Mahbubani has elegantly narrated that the Asian Century, the Eurasian Century, is already on, as Eurasia integration is spurred by BRI, AIIB, SCO, EAEU, and Russia-China strategic partnership.

SCO solidarity blatantly negates the zero-sum geopolitics and camp-based confrontation as it attempts to meticulously streamline divergent strategic calculus towards a cohesive regional community. In such times of geopolitical upheaval where diplomacy has been put on the back burner and several theaters of war pose grave threats to humanity, multilateral efforts reflect only viable silver linings. With its growing sphere of influence, demographic might, and ambitious agenda, SCO’s charm offensive will be poised to impart significant ramifications worldwide.

US Indo-Pacific Strategy and Maritime Security Challenges of Pakistan

By
Shahzad Masood Roomi
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0

From the Western Coast of the US to the Eastern maritime borders of India, 52% of the total world surface area lies in India, and it has formed the single largest geopolitical region in the world, i.e., the Indo-Pacific region. This demarcation divides the Indian Ocean in half; if we consider the entire Indian Ocean Region (IOR) in the Indo-Pacific, it encompasses an even bigger part of the world. In that case, it included almost all the littoral nations of Asia, Eastern Africa, and North Western America in this region.

Through its Indo-Pacific Strategy, the US has laid out an alliance-based military plan for consolidating control over the maritime domain in this entire region, which, according to this declared strategy, is a key component of the “Containment of China” policy. 

The US maintains a considerable military presence in this region through naval and military aviation bases, with around 375,000 troops. Spread across the region, the US military maintains and uses 66 major military installations, and more are being built.[1] The US is looking to increase this military infrastructure in the region by building new military sites owned by the US or in allied nations.

Japan and South Korea have been housing US forces for many decades, and new facilities are being built in the Philippines and Australia. Under the Indo-Pacific strategy, the US has entered major strategic alliances with Australia, Japan, and India. Since 2020, the US has spent nearly $9 billion on developing new military infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific, where China has been declared a peer competitor in great power competition.[2]

The geopolitical goals of the US became clearer when “The 2022 National Security Strategy” document was released by the White House which declared the Indo-Pacific region the “epicentre of 21st-century geopolitics”[3] and the “2022 National Defense Strategy” document, published by Department of Defense (DoD), specifically pointed towards the attempts by China to “refashion the Indo-Pacific region” as part of “the most comprehensive and serious challenge to U.S. national security.”[4]

US decision to rename the US Pacific Command (USPACOM) to Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) in 2018 gave the first signs of changing US policy towards the region. Not only did this decision combine the Pacific and Indian Oceans under INDOPACOM, but it also increased the relevance of Indian IOR in global politics. This is where this new strategy of the US becomes an important strategic consideration for Pakistan from not only defence but also from a diplomatic perspective.

India is part of two strategic alliances of the US in the region, and both are poised to deter the rise of China in the South China Sea and its ingress into IOR through the so-called “String of Pearls” strategy.

QUAD and AUKUS alliances have dominant military components integrated within their respective scopes. The US is also mulling to expand both alliances by incorporating more regional allies like Japan and South Korea. All these US overtures are triggering a response from Beijing, which has created an environment described by multiple geopolitical experts as Cold War 2.0, taking place all along the Pacific rim of the Indian Ocean[5]. Another set of experts has described it as Hot Peace rather than a new Cold War. [6]

Beijing has responded to this US Indo-Pacific Strategy with a renewed military modernization drive. Consequently, in terms of the number of surface vessels, PLAN has become the world’s largest navy (USN is still the largest navy in terms of total tonnage), comprising three aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, large destroyers, countless frigates, and conventional attack submarines, and it is inducting more every year.

This maritime buildup competition from both sides is unfolding exactly how during World War II, US professor of international relations Nicholas Spykman predicted in his book during the last years of the war. He predicted a contest between the US and an Asian power to control the Eurasian Rimland (Littoral nations of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans) as global power dynamics would be decided by the fact who controls these lands.

He identified these regions as key geostrategy hotspots when he sketched the world’s geopolitical map and identified that the littoral nations of Eurasian Rimland will control global power dynamics. Interestingly, Europe and the Far East are part of the greater Eurasian Rimland, two key geostrategic regions where the US can prevail as a dominant military, economic, and diplomatic force.[7] Both India and Pakistan are part of Spykman’s rimland, and so are China and the entire Far East Asia. This explains the US’s interest in this part of the world.

For Pakistan, this rapidly unfolding great power competition scenario in the rimland is important from a maritime security perspective due to Indian involvement. India is building its blue water capabilities to be part of these grand strategic alliances, creating a balance of power crisis in the Arabian Sea (Part of greater IOR). Once acquired, India will certainly not keep these blue water capabilities at its eastern maritime border, which forms the westernmost border of the Indo-Pacific as per US classification.

The Indian Navy has taken many such steps in the Middle East and Africa (building listening stations, leasing foreign seaports, etc.), prompting Pakistan to contemplate ways to maintain the balance of power for peace to prevail.

Apart from India, the main protagonists of great power competition, the US and China, are Pakistan’s close strategic allies. Their enmity will drag the region into an arms race and put Pakistan in a difficult diplomatic predicament, prompting it to choose a bloc and lose either its net security provider (China) or its largest export destination (USA).

Geopolitical scenarios can unfold quickly in an age of growing regional integration and global power competition. Pakistan must reinvigorate ties with regional partners to take a collective stand and build sizeable military capabilities to protect its strategic interests.

End Notes:

[1] Nicastro. US defense infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific: Background and Issues for Congress. 2023.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47589

[2] Nicastro.

[3] “National Security Strategy”, The White House, October 2022, p. 37. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wpcontent/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf

[4] “National Defense Strategy”, Department of Defense, October 2022, p. 4.  https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-national-defense-strategy-npr-mdr.pdf

[5] Zizek, Slavoj. “From Cold War to Hot Peace.” The Peninsula Foundation, March 27, 2022. https://www.thepeninsula.org.in/2022/03/27/from-cold-war-to-hot-peace/

[6] Irigoyen, Antonio Nájera. “From Cold War to Hot Peace.” (2020): 1472-1475.

[7] Sempa, Francis P. “Nicholas Spykman and the Struggle for the Asiatic Mediterranean.” The Diplomat (2015).
https://thediplomat.com/2015/01/nicholas-spykman-and-the-struggle-for-the-asiatic-mediterranean/

 

The Path to a Peace Process in the War In Ukraine Through The Shadows Of Moral Asymmetry

By
Professor Alexander Kostyuk
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0

One year ago, Foreign Affairs published an article by Samuel Charap, a fellow and analyst at the RAND Corporation, who has been a foreign policy adviser to the White House for many years. The article highlighted the main challenges that the end of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent peaceful negotiation process may face.

Among the main challenges to the peace process, Samuel Charap rightly identified the so-called “moral asymmetry” that has been accumulated since the beginning of the full-scale invasion by statements from the two main participants – Ukraine and Russia. The accumulated expectations for the end of the war, especially on the Ukrainian side, such as the protection of not only state sovereignty and independence, which has actually already happened but also the full restoration of territorial integrity by military means, along with the amount of moral damage caused to the people of Ukraine by Russian aggression, make direct negotiations on ending the war between Ukraine and Russia virtually impossible.

Simply put, the representatives of Ukraine and Russia have no moral right to sit down at a common negotiating table – a huge and painful moral asymmetry has widened the gap in the direct negotiation and peace process between the two sides.

Is there a way out of this situation? A recent statement by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Mr. Kuleba, suggests there is.

Thus, Kuleba notes that in the current situation of huge moral asymmetry between the two sides, the negotiation process and the subsequent peace process can be implemented based on the model of the grain agreement between Ukraine and Russia signed in 2022. Despite the ongoing war, this agreement has been implemented quite successfully for two years.

The peculiarity of the grain deal is that Ukraine and Russia do not have direct contact during the negotiations. Communications between them are carried out through the other two parties to the agreement, Turkey and the UN, which first agreed on the agreement’s text with each party separately and then separately collected the signatures of the participants to the agreement.

In general, this is a fairly effective negotiation model, and it was implemented quite effectively at the level of the grain agreement. This raises several important questions. First, who should be the other parties to this agreement, acting as mediators in the negotiations? Second, what should be the main platform for this kind of negotiation process to gain support for the peace process from most countries of the world, together with the main geopolitical players? Perhaps peace summits?

The peace summit held in Switzerland in June this year did not answer this question. Still, given the formation of two camps on the conditions for ending the war, the most reliable would be the representation of developed Western countries and countries of the Global South. Will the leaders of both groups of countries- the United States and China- take on this role? In terms of influencing the course of the negotiation process, yes, they will.

But who will technically be represented by such negotiators? Probably, getting an answer to this question is also the task of peace summits, which should demonstrate progress in the peace process and revive diplomacy as a security mechanism that was abandoned after the end of the Cold War.

It is difficult to overestimate the role of the United States in the peace process. Ben Rhodes, in a recent article in Foreign Affairs, made a fairly meaningful attempt to summarize the Biden administration’s foreign policy strategy, identifying three main foreign policy challenges:

“Washington must recognize that all three fault lines of global conflict today—Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel, and China-Taiwan—run across territories just beyond the reach of U.S. treaty obligations. In other words, these are not areas where the American people have been prepared to go to war directly. With little public support and no legal obligation to do that, Washington should not count on bluffing or military buildups alone to resolve these issues; instead, it will have to focus relentlessly on diplomacy, buttressed by reassurance to frontline partners that there are alternative pathways to achieving security”.

This request for meaningful diplomacy should form the basis for ending the war in Ukraine and further negotiations. At the same time, the United States must demonstrate its geopolitical leadership by participating in Ukraine’s future:

“In Ukraine, the United States and Europe should focus on protecting and investing in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government—drawing Ukraine into European institutions, sustaining its economy, and fortifying it for lengthy negotiations with Moscow so that time works in Kyiv’s favor”.

President Biden has almost 7 months in spare to put in practice this foreign policy. Else, as mentioned in another recent article in Foreign Affairs by Robert C. O’Brien:

“Trump, for his part, has made clear that he would like to see a negotiated settlement to the war that ends the killing and preserves the security of Ukraine.”

Likely, it will not be so difficult for Trump to implement the process of ending the war in Ukraine, including the one mentioned above by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba, because Trump, unlike President Biden, has not contributed to increasing moral asymmetry, i.e., he has not made statements that would emphasize the overwhelming importance of military instruments to end the war.

Trump has much more room for maneuver in the implementation of the peace process in Ukraine than Biden, who is bound by previous statements of a rather bellicose nature.

Strobe Talbot, the advisor to President Clinton, recalled Condoleezza Rice, in a number of a conversations he had with her at Stanford, remarking casuistically that “the namelessness of the nineties bespoke the timelessness of American policy in that period – i.e., the Clinton administration’s policy.” Now we are all witnessing that the aimlessness of American policy in the nineties, with a plethora of deferred security problems, including those around Ukraine, is emphasizing the role of dynamic, powerful, and forward-looking US diplomacy in systematically addressing complex geopolitical challenges, including the war in Ukraine, fueled by the significant moral asymmetry of its main participants.

 

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