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India’s Dark Agenda: Global Silence, Human Rights Ignored

By
Dr. Ghulam Mujaddid
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Human Rights

Although India is often praised as a model democracy, under its surface lies a sinister plan meant to attack its political rivals outside. Particularly in recent times, the murder of a Sikh leader in Canada raises issues not only concerning human issues but also challenges the silence of the world community.

Disappointingly, international institutions such as the United Nations and the United States— which asserts itself to defend human rights — have been silent, which adds to the complexity of the problem. This silence suggests that maybe these international powers have interests that keep them from criticizing India.

The murder of a Sikh leader in Canada raises not only concerning human rights issues but also challenges the silence of the world community.

Given all this, other nations including Pakistan should reflect on their policies. To end breaches of human rights in the region, India has to strongly oppose its approach. The whole community should intervene right away to prevent India from continuing its criminal activities.

The United Nations should likewise prioritize this matter and launch an objective inquiry to enable the truth to surface. One may conclude that it is unavoidable for the world community to come together against India’s agenda. Should this issue be overlooked now, the effects might be more severe down the road.

The silence of international organizations can cause other nations in the region to violate human rights. Consequently, every country should give this matter some thought and resolve these challenges under a shared approach. India’s disregard of the deaths of its rivals suggests that the whole community has moral obligations. People are offering lines of questions.

Many big nations are hesitant to address the matter honestly due to commercial and diplomatic relations to India. Strong reaction to India’s actions by international institutions such as the United States and the United Nations should have been taken, but their silence now begs serious issues about the global conscience.

The silence of the United States and the United Nations adds to the complexity of the problem.

Think about geographic goals first of human rights. These nations concentrate on making sure their connections with India are not affected rather than voicing criticism on New Delhi’s policies.

America’s silence might also result from its own geopolitical goals. India is a major friend, and the US regards it as a major actor in the region to counter China’s influence. As such, the US is more interested in supporting India than in criticizing its internal matters. This kind of thinking has enabled India even more to continue resisting its foes abroad as it believes that world powers will not interfere.

Likewise, the purpose of the United Nations has sometimes been dubious. The United Nations vows to speak out against breaches of human rights, even if its lack of action and apathy has damaged its reputation all around. The non-action of the United Nations against India indicates the lack of interest of the world community and its incompetence to carry out a functional purpose.

About India’s actions, Pakistan and other countries should unite to develop a comprehensive strategy to pinpoint a feasible answer to this problem. Pakistan has to advocate on this issue abroad and put pressure on international organizations to follow strict policies against India. The international community should also examine India’s actions against its enemy and assign culpability before justice.

It is long past that the whole society comes together against India’s posture in order to maintain international stability and peace.

Not only the United States and the United Nations, but also the entire community should reconsider its beliefs and responsibilities and act with efficiency to protect human rights. Apart from providing the victims with justice, practical actions against India will contribute to promoting respect for human rights elsewhere. It is long past that the whole world comes together against India’s posture to maintain international stability and peace.

ASEAN’s Evolution In The Global Context

By
Chiara Cacco
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ASEAN

Although some of the most powerful countries in the world are now involved in conflict, recession, and inflation, the ASEAN mostly emphasizes the need of peace and economic stability. Based in Southeast Asia, ASEAN is a regional body of 10 members: Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Laos, Indonesia, Cambodia, Burma, and Brunei Darussalam.

Laos takes over as ASEAN chairperson in 2024. The subject this year is “ASEAN: Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience”. Emphasizing the ASEAN 2024 topic by means of chances and addressing rising issues centers the ASEAN community.

Commonly referred to as Laos, the ASEAN 2024 host nation is officially named as Lao People’s Democratic Republic (LPDR). Being in Southeast Asia, Laos is primarily connected with being the “Land of a Million Elephants,” as it will provide wealth to Laotians.

Established in Bangkok, Thailand, with five founding fathers from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, ASEAN was born out of the “Bangkok Declaration”. Brunei Darussalam joined the grouping in 1984; Vietnam followed in 1995; Lao PDR and Myanmar in 1997; and Cambodia in 1999.

Right now, around 60% of ASEAN’s whole population falls under the age of 35. It makes the area a dynamic market for sophisticated sciences — robotics, social media, e-commerce platforms, artificial intelligence, and everything around. Half of such a population by 2030 will be middle class members.

GREETINGS ON YOUR 57TH BIRTHDAY, ASEAN!

After 1967, the ASEAN community commemorates its establishment every eighth of August. This celebration reminds us of the goals of the ASEAN founding fathers and how they developed into what ASEAN is all about in the modern society.

Emphasizing connectedness and resilience among members in sectors like sustainable development, digital transformation, and resilient economies, the 57th ASEAN Day highlighted. Through government-to-government and people-to-people interactions, ASEAN promoted economic development, social change, and cultural appreciation by means of shared and cooperative efforts to fit a changing global scene.

ASEAN is destined to be a powerful Asian regional grouping. Given the development of ASEAN, one can see that its exceptional qualities — strategic geographic position, varied cultures, customs, traditions, and political systems and philosophies — which also challenge its fundamental foundation. Future challenges might arise from a territory with such varied civilizations.

CODE OF CONDUCT FOR SOUTH CHINA SEA

Among uncertainty and national interests, ASEAN aims to have the South China Sea code of conduct completed by 2026. ASEAN Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn visited Washington in June 2024 to advocate the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between ASEAN and the United States; he noted the situation that is becoming worse and requested the parties to use moderation.

Although applicants have been fervently advocating a code of behavior for many years, the gravity may appear different from that of the non-claimants as they may not want to endanger their particular interactions with China. Although the code of behavior was constantly in development, China has never adopted such a stance as it never achieved its final form of legal bindingness.
Real manifestations of the lack of the ASEAN posture in the South China Sea Code of Conduct include different points of view, complicated issues, and split desires. Regarding the code of behavior, ASEAN is definitely not unified. Vietnam and the Philippines have open lines of contact with China separately and concurrently. For example, the Philippines has gone through many unpleasant events that have led to diplomatic objections against China.

THE MYANMAR CONUNDRUM   

The member nations of ASEAN have been indecisive for more than three years in trying for a regional settlement on the present situation of Myanmar. Both Laos and Cambodia are authoritarian in character, hence, they assist the dictatorship in certain respects. Under a junta government that destroyed democracy in 2021, other ASEAN nations like Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia maintained some degree of contact with the opposition in Myanmar. At this moment in time, most ASEAN nations appear to be primarily focused on eliminating violence.

Though ASEAN is a regional entity with great goals, fundamental problems still exist. For instance, the internal conflicts of the ASEAN members mirror the issues in the South China Sea conflict and the junta government of Myanmar.

FUTURE ASEAN TRAJECTORY: WHAT IS IT?

Indeed, there are many clear economic signals, socio-cultural contributions, and images reflecting Asia; yet, in politics, there are certain gaps, particularly those that really affect the international order.

One may find both good and bad aspects in resilience and connectedness. Positive because ASEAN multilateral diplomacy is headed toward regional cooperation. The bad side of it is that some of the most crucial fundamental elements remain unsolved. Soft and cultural tolerance does not convert into a toolkit of fundamental global concerns of relevance and significance. ASEAN should rethink its multilateral commitment; unlike certain groupings or even treaties, an issue of one affect all. Independent bilateral diplomacy should not waver under a member of another nation in regional diplomacy. Pushing for the regional ambitions reflecting its pillars and charter calls for great cooperation, coordination, and dedication.

Third Plenum: Priorities To Remodel China’s Economic Future

By
Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi
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Chinese Economy

China is aware that its 2035 goal to build a more equitable, innovative, and greener economy and the 2049 goal of modernization are within reach. However, rational but difficult choices must be made and challenges faced head-on now to realize them. The third plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CPC) 20th Central Committee in July 2024 came at a critical juncture for China’s economic challenges and, therefore, focused on deepening economic reforms to address a range of pressing issues facing Chinese economy and society.

The third plenum, therefore, enacted much-awaited structural reforms. China set ambitious long-term policy goals and unveiled a range of economic reforms and policies to address long-standing issues hindering growth and recovery. While reforms are modest, yet comprehensively cover all aspects of economy and governance. These reforms will have a substantial impact on the country’s development trajectory and thus their impact should be well understood.

The CCP plenums are quasi-annual meetings held by the Central Committee. After the National Congress, which is held every five years and elects the Central Committee, they are the most important and high-level political gatherings in China. Historically, these plenums have been the platform from which the government launches seminal policies and decisions, such as the “reform and opening up policy” in 1978 and the easing of the One-Child policy in 2013.

Although past plenums have seen major reforms and policy decisions, the July 2024 plenum did not announce any drastic pivots and instead put in more granular reforms that align with the country’s current development trajectory. The Central Committee approved decision on Further Comprehensive Deepening of Reforms and Advancing Chinese-style Modernization. It named “high-quality development” as China’s “top priority” and laid out structural reforms to be completed by 2029, the 80th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

Historically, these plenums have been the platform from which the government launches seminal policies and decisions

This document outlined the planned economic reforms for the coming years and focused in part on policies to promote the “new-type industrialization” policy. This initiative seeks to move China’s industries up the value chain and boost their global competitiveness by focusing on digitization, advanced manufacturing, secure supply chains, and developing core and emerging technologies. “High-quality development is the primary task of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way,” the statement said.

Meanwhile, external factors are anticipated to encourage reinforcement of China’s internal competencies, especially in the technological sector, aiming to enhance the robustness and self-reliance of vital industrial and supply networks. In recent years, the US and the EU, as well as other allies, have increased pressure on China by introducing a variety of policies aimed at countering China’s growing influence in key supply chains. These include the US sanctions on key technology exports to China and recent tariff hikes, as well as the EU’s growing scrutiny of various Chinese imports.

Meanwhile, external factors are anticipated to encourage reinforcement of China’s internal competencies, especially in the technological sector

To mitigate this, the Central Committee may prioritize enhancing domestic high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing, consolidating advantageous industries, and fostering strategic emerging industries, such as semiconductors, alongside encouraging collaborative innovation across the industrial chain. Decisions have also been taken to help with business matchmaking, location analysis, market entry strategy, market research, and supply chain re-engineering.

While technology innovation initiative was first introduced in 2002 during the 16th National Congress, it has become an increasingly important aspect of China’s industrial policy in recent years. In September 2023, President Xi Jinping stressed the “vital role of high-quality development in advancing new-type industrialization”, emphasizing the need to adapt and lead the ongoing scientific and technological revolution.

China views technology innovation as a new growth engine that could help the economy transition from the old model fueled by infrastructure investment and debt expansion. The third plenum announced policies related to promoting high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing processes, consolidating existing industrial strengths and expanding strategic emerging industries, and proactively developing industries of the future to stay ahead in global technological and industrial revolutions.

In September 2023, President Xi Jinping stressed the “vital role of high-quality development in advancing new-type industrialization”

Meanwhile, China has been proactively building economic relationships with countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe to strengthen its supply chain resilience. This strategy is expected to remain steadfast in the short term.

Chinese private sector has experienced uneven recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic, with private companies falling behind their public counterparts across measures such as value output and investment. The third plenum announced new policies to support the growth and recovery of the private sector, including ensuring equal treatments for state-owned and private enterprises through institutional and legal frameworks, protecting the property rights and interests of private entrepreneurs, and supporting the growth of small, medium, and micro-enterprises, as well as individual businesses.

Xi’s government has also strengthened its national security apparatus in the past decade.  The plenum pledged to ensure “security,” which means national security concerns could continue to drive policymaking. They also vowed to give “better play to the role of the market”, while noting that market forces need to be better managed, and retained a previous promise to “unswervingly” develop the state sector.

China also pledged to “improve people’s livelihoods” at the plenum, which is essentially a continuation of Xi’s “common prosperity” agenda. While previous leaders in post-Mao China were content to let some get rich first, Xi believes the time has come to share the fruits of development more widely among its population. The plenum acknowledged the need to improve “basic and bottom-up livelihood, solve the most direct and realistic interests of the people and continuously meet the people’s yearning for a better life”.  This is the most promising parts of the reform agenda, since channeling a greater share of income to households would help to advance a much-needed rebalancing toward consumption.

It was also decided to improve job markets, social security, education system and the medical system. Likewise, the need to address risks in the property market and other threats to the economy have been heighted with determination to put requisite strategies in place to rectify the problems.

Relieving the financial squeeze on local governments that have built up huge amounts of debt after a crackdown on heavy borrowing by property developers pushed the real estate industry into crisis, cutting off a vital source of tax revenues from sales of land-use rights. The urgent need to reform the tax system and better integrate cities and the countryside has also been emphasized.

The leadership also vowed to revamp the fiscal, taxation and financial systems, which signal their concerns about how to address the debt crises faced by Chinese local governments. Debt has piled up at municipal governments, after three years of pandemic controls drained their coffers and the property slump led to a sharp decline in land sales, which they rely on for income. That poses risks to the country’s banking system and economic growth.

Besides the long-term structural reform priorities, policymakers also promised to achieve short-term economic goals, including a 5% GDP growth target for 2024. That came days after China released disappointing economic data for the second quarter of this year. GDP grew 4.7% year-on-year in the April-to-June period, marking the weakest growth since the first quarter of last year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The figure slowed from 5.3% in the previous three months and missed the 5.1% increase forecast.

It has committed to peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

To achieve the annual goals, “China will proactively expand domestic demand” and develop “new-quality productivity forces,” That could mean channeling resources to favored sectors, such as high-tech manufacturing, while gradually curbing the role of sunset industries like property development, according to Evans-Pritchard from Capital Economics. Analysts say that the coming months could offer more details on how Xi plans to revive the economy.

Sustainable development remains a cornerstone of China’s policy framework. It has committed to peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. China has now introduced measures to accelerate this green transition, promoting renewable energy, enhancing energy efficiency, and supporting the development of a circular economy. These efforts underscore China’s dedication to combating climate change and fostering a harmonious coexistence between humanity and nature.

The decisions taken at the third plenum will propel China in a new era of reforms and prepare it to face the challenges emerging around it that may restrain its development. China is now determined to ensure it realizes its second millennial goal of rejuvenation of the motherland by the middle of the century. It plans to do this by building a high-standard socialist market economy, improving macroeconomic governance and the national strategic planning system as well as policy coordination mechanisms.

Other initiatives include: deepening reform of the fiscal and tax systems along with overall financial system; improving mechanisms for implementing the coordinated regional development strategy; promoting integrated urban-rural development; pursuing high-standard opening up; advancing whole-process people’s democracy; promoting socialist rule of law with Chinese characteristics; deepening reform in the cultural sector; ensuring and improving the people’s wellbeing; deepening reform in ecological conservation; modernizing China’s national security system and capacity; expediting national defense and military reforms; and improving the party’s leadership.

So far China has demonstrated its determination to fully implement its short and long-term goals. Now it is in the final decades of achieving its cherished goal of national rejuvenation of the motherland. Whether it is able to achieve it will depend on the decisions China is taking today and will continue to need strong and sagacious leadership.

Emerging Technologies: Carrying the Carriers Forward

By
Ameer Abdullah Khan
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Emerging Technologies

Clausewitzian wisdom suggests that every age has its own patterns of war and limiting conditions. Chariots, a dominant factor in the battlefields of ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia, were eventually supplanted by the rise of heavy cavalry. The thickly armored knights of the medieval era dominated frontlines but were made redundant by the advent of longbows, while gunpowder rendered them completely ineffective.

Successive generations of rifles and guns emerged and disappeared from battle arena, and the introduction of tanks and aircraft in World War I eventually brought trench warfare to an end. World War II witnessed, the once-decisive battleships eclipsing in front of aircraft carriers and submarines.

The unparalleled strategic flexibility provided by the rapid deployment of aircraft carriers transformed maritime and conventional warfare.

History has come full circle, as the experts are now debating the continued relevance of aircraft carriers due to the rise of advanced and sophisticated missile technologies. Since their inception, aircraft carriers have consistently served as symbols of military might, sources of power projection, and credible deterrents. The unparalleled strategic flexibility provided by the rapid deployment of aircraft carriers transformed maritime and conventional warfare. Additionally, they have demonstrated their value in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts.

The argument about the redundancy of aircraft carriers stems from revolutionary advancements in missile technologies. Contrary to this, the multi-layered defense systems of aircraft carriers make them resilient to such attacks. The advanced electronic warfare and missile defense technologies, with reliable early warning and interception capabilities, enable them to intercept high-speed missiles. Furthermore, saturating the defenses of a target is an old technique that can be employed against aircraft carriers; however, one cannot assume that navies are unprepared for such scenarios.

The skeptics in this domain also base their argument on the concept of distributed lethality. This involves using smaller, more agile vessels and distributing offensive and defensive capabilities more widely to enhance the overall resilience of naval forces by denying the adversary the opportunity to target a single high-value asset. However, the use of aircraft carriers and distributed lethality are not mutually exclusive, but rather complementary approaches.

The skeptics in this domain also base their argument on the concept of distributed lethality.

An aircraft carrier cannot achieve its objectives and becomes a vulnerable target unless supplemented with numerous smaller, nimble vessels through network-centric warfare. This enhances the defense capability by complicating and diluting the adversary’s target efforts by presenting several elusive targets while the aircraft carriers continue to project power. This approach also facilitates real-time data sharing and coordinated attack strategies.

In addition, as emerging technologies are rapidly dominating the battlefields and modifying military strategies, aircraft carriers are also expected to follow suit. One significant future development in this regard will be the integration of AI-backed unmanned combat aerial vehicles with aircraft carriers. UCAV swarms will not only help reduce the operational cost of the aircraft carriers but will also increase their lethality in attack and will make their defenses more formidable. Leveraging AI-Enhanced Decision Support Systems and AI-Driven Predictive Maintenance and Logistics will also enable aircraft carriers to maintain their dominance in an increasingly contested future environment.

The last but old argument posed against the future relevance of aircraft carriers is their economic viability. However, the substantial USD 13 billion cost of building and USD 1 billion for annually operating these majestic platforms is justified by the strategic dividends they provide. The economic argument is also overshadowed by the fact that almost all the major and middle powers either possess this technology already or are striving to acquire it.

One significant future development in this regard will be the integration of AI-backed unmanned combat aerial vehicles with aircraft carriers.

Currently, the United States operates the most advanced fleet of 11 aircraft carriers, followed by India, China, the United Kingdom, and Italy, each possessing two aircraft carriers. Russia and France are operating one aircraft carrier each. Furthermore, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, and Australia are in the phase of building aircraft carriers of different types or are modifying existing vessels tailored to their requirements.

The future relevance of aircraft carriers also hinges on their ability to enable a state with strategic signaling and provide geopolitical influences by overcoming the limitations provided by geostrategic factors. As the global order is transforming and great powers’ competition is intensifying, oceans are likely to emerge as theatres of contestation. The ability of a state to project power offshore and freedom of navigation is going to be potent determinants of superpower status. Therefore, the Indo-Pacific region will particularly be the center of attention of major powers urging all the contenders to enhance their power through aircraft carriers.

The future relevance of aircraft carriers also hinges on their ability to enable a state with strategic signaling and provide geopolitical influences.

When the time comes, no matter how majestic and potent, every weapon eventually diminishes from the battlefield arenas. However, such a time for aircraft carriers does not seem to be on the horizon. With the integration of emerging technologies and adaptive deployment strategies, aircraft carriers can continue to dominate maritime warfare and serve as an indispensable source of strategic power projection, ensuring freedom of navigation for major powers.

The Bangladesh Impact!

By
Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi
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Bangladesh

The enormity of the students’ movement and its impact has yet to be fully appreciated in Bangladesh and the region. What has transpired in Bangladesh in recent weeks will have repercussions far beyond its borders and should not be written off as a random phenomenon. The ripples of political evolution and dramatic turn of events will be felt across the South Asian region in particular and the world in general.

Led by the young student community from across the political and social divide, not only represents a revolt against autocratic and dictatorial politics but also against elite capture, personality cults, and hereditary politics of select families masquerading as democratic dispensations. What is significant is the complete rejection of India’s quasi-colonial stranglehold on Bangladesh since 1971.

The enormity of the students’ movement and its impact has yet to be fully appreciated in Bangladesh and the region.

The political cataclysm resulting from the protests is not a sudden and instantaneous occurrence. It is the result of stifled political grievances of Bangladeshis over decades and repression by Sheikh Hasina’s government over the past 15 years. Once considered a savior of Bangladesh’s democracy, Hasina became an authoritarian leader stifling individual civic rights, cracking down on freedom of expression, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and the use of other forms of torture against dissidents and critics.

The growing anger over these injustices, rampant corruption, and rising cronyism remained largely masked by a significant improvement in the economy under Hasina’s leadership. Finally, allegations of institutional electoral rigging and blatant misuse of power by Hasina to secure the fourth consecutive term in January proved the last straw that broke the camel’s back. This revolt is not just against politicians, it is a clarion call to clean up the entire system of unconstitutional elements and practices of state institutions including the judiciary and bureaucracy.

There is cautious optimism as Bangladesh struggles with the repercussions of protests. As Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus leads a confident interim government, it remains to be seen whether Bangladesh succeeds in establishing stability, or whether tumultuous political unrest will enter a new phase of uncertainty.

This revolt is not just against politicians, it is a clarion call to clean up the entire system of unconstitutional elements.

The first test of the interim government will be to restore order, bring to justice those responsible for committing excesses during the protests, initiate the institutional and structural reforms required to restore the democratic credentials of Bangladesh and ensure free and fair elections at the earliest to meet the high expectations of the people. If these expectations are met, it will complete the political evolution and we may witness a different Bangladesh emerge, consistent with its liberal, secular, and democratic ethos. If not, it has the potential to divide the people and plunge Bangladesh into chaos and civil war.

A long drawn-out interim government is not an option as that may provide space to not only the un-constitutional forces to manipulate the political vacuum but also enable the extremist ideologies to carve a niche for themselves which may not augur well for the country. The greatest fear is the rise of fundamentalist ideologies that ay spread to other parts of the region.

Lack of political stability will also increase Bangladesh’s economic conditions that could disturb the economic stability of the entire South Asia region.  Bangladesh’s economic performance had enhanced its position nearly to the rank of an “Asian Tiger.” Bangladesh became India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, and India became the second-largest trading partner for Bangladesh in Asia after China.

The greatest fear is the rise of fundamentalist ideologies that may spread to other parts of the region.

These strong trade ties, boosted under Sheikh Hasina’s pro-India rule, nurtured India’s dream of building a regional subgroup centered on trade from the Bay of Bengal region and making a free trade area connecting Myanmar, Thailand, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka who are members of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic cooperation. Therefore, the ouster of Hasina is a setback for Indian influence, security trade, and the dream of connectivity using Bangladesh as the connecting node to East Asia and beyond.

Hasina had rebuilt roads and bridges linking Dhaka with Kolkata and Agartala, renewed railway links, and enabled access to cargo ships on the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries. Security cooperation also increased between India and Bangladesh as Hasina assisted India in quelling the rebellion in Assam by refusing to provide safe refuge to rebels from across the border.

India is now desperately trying to implicate Pakistan by insinuating that Pakistan and China were abetting the protests.

However, what is significant to note in the regional and international geopolitics and geostrategic competition is that she favored India over China for a $1bn river development project and secured a deal with the Indian Adwani Group in the power sector for a whopping $ 1.7 billion. By side-lining China in the large development projects Hasina certainly sent a strong message of support for India making Bangladesh stand with India and Western powers in their competition with China for political and economic interest in this strategically important region. Having said that, it would be erroneous to believe that any new dispensation in Bangladesh would be inimical to India. Bangladesh’s geographical proximity will continue to oblige it to have friendly and somewhat cooperative relations with India.

Concerned about the loss of their trusted partner in Bangladesh, India is now desperately trying to implicate Pakistan by insinuating that Pakistan and China were abetting the protests. These false allegations completely ignore and undermine the basic issues of governance and democracy which were simmering under the surface for decades and were effectively vented out in the form of apolitical uprising of the youth. There are lessons to be learned from the events in Bangladesh, not only for India but also for the other South Asian nations.

India Unblocks Chinese Investment To Boost Exports

By
Info Desk
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Narendra Modi

NEW DELHI – India has started clearing the way for Chinese investment by approving proposals involving companies from China.

Narendra Modi-led coalition government opted for the move after an annual review of Indian economy presented last month argued in favor of attracting investment from China.

It was in 2020 when the Modi government – a time when the Hindu nationalist BJP was in power with a strong majority – had imposed restrictions on Chinese investment after the deadly border skirmishes.

According to The Economic Times which quoted sources, an inter-ministerial panel has cleared investment proposals in the electronics manufacturing sector, which include some Chinese companies and others with connections to the neighboring country.

These proposals involve Chinese electronics giant Luxshare, a vendor for Apple, as well as a joint venture between Bhagwati Products (Micromax) and Huaqin Technology, with the latter holding a minority stake.

WHY THIS CHANGE? THE BACKGROUND

The decision taken in 2020 was based upon purely political considerations. It was also greatly influenced by the fact that Modi portrays himself as the champion of Indian nationalism. But his version is a product of the extreme Hindu nationalism which leaves no or very little room for a holistic approach.

However, the election results earlier this year saw the BJP losing simple majority amid the tall claims made about a thumping victory by gaining a two-thirds majority. Hence, Modi was forced to form a coalition government comprising even those parties which aren’t part of his National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The election results meant that the Indian people had rejected the economic development vision of Modi – reliance on a high growth rate while banking on infrastructure development and high-tech industries while favoring the big businesses.

But the net result was: concentration of wealth that is widening the rich-poor divide and lack of employment opportunities for the millions of youths.

Thus, the economic factors coupled with a silent majority frightened by the plans about introducing constitutional changes revolving around the Hindutva ideology made the people to cast their vote against Modi.

IT ISN’T THAT SIMPLE

Domestic factors and political compulsions aside, global economy and the desire to make India an economic power are also in play.

“As the US and Europe shift their immediate sourcing away from China, it is more effective to have Chinese companies invest in India and then export the products to these markets rather than importing from China, adding minimal value, and then re-exporting them,” said India’s Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said in the annual economic survey.

To boost its global exports, Nageswaran said, New Delhi can either integrate into China’s supply chain or promote foreign direct investment (FDI) from China.

“Among these choices, focusing on FDI from China seems more promising for boosting India’s exports to the US, similar to how East Asian economies did in the past.”

The report said choosing the FDI strategy “appears more advantageous than relying on trade” as it can arrest the growing trade deficit New Delhi has with Beijing, the top exporter for India.

And this report triggered a debate that has seemingly resulted in this policy shift.

YES! WE NEED FDI

Soon after the report was tabled in Lok Sabha [India’s Lower House of Parliament], Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had backed her economic adviser.

She told a press conference that the adviser’s office works at an “arm’s distance” but “that doesn’t mean I am disowning the suggestion.” becoming the first minister to back such a move.

India tightened its scrutiny of investments from Chinese companies and halted major projects since 2020.

India’s net FDI inflow dropped by 62.17% to $10.58 billion in 2023-24, a 17-year-low, from $27.98 billion the previous year, official data showed.

Meanwhile, the Chinese investment will also help tackle the other challenge – Indian youth unemployment –  which is one of the biggest issues Modi is facing on domestic front.

US Energy Diplomacy In A Changing World

By
Dr. Raziq Hussian
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Energy Diplomacy

Thirty years after the conclusion of the Cold War and the start of globalization, the globe has both become more linked and still suffers continuous volatility. From border disputes to resource misallocations to inadequate government performance and conflicts stemming from long-standing societal concerns have necessitated involvement from the main international powers.

Energy diplomacy is crucial for managing international relations and ensuring global energy security.

Current crises, like those in Ukraine and the Middle East, give one the sense that unsolved security issues from the late 20th century have influenced and will continue to affect international relations far into the 21st. Nonetheless, some of the biggest obstacles to world peace and security originate from transnational concerns like global pandemics, migration and refugees, resource depletion, and maybe most importantly, climate change.

These global issues create new problems because of their local consequences. Not only these issues do not end at one national boundary, but none of any states in the globe has the capacity or power to handle the climate change-like challenge on their own. Although international agencies such as the United Nations might provide a path to answers, it depends on the combined will of its members to implement. Unquestionably, climate change calls for a coordinated response beyond political lines.

Regardless of political background, it is imperative to give energy security and safety first priority as nations and areas struggle with the pressing need to switch to sustainable energy sources. The search for a better future call for a cooperative strategy wherein both energy diplomacy and energy security become essential instruments in bringing governments under a shared climate agenda.

The US energy industry is leading the charge in transitioning to sustainable energy sources.

Leading this change is the American energy industry, which has seen many major advances quickening this shift. This covers initiatives of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to simplify the connections between new energy projects and the grid, therefore, removing obstacles to national renewable energy expansion. Propelled by a dynamic legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has resulted in unprecedented expansion in the renewables industry. Given a very appealing investment market, energy storage is also seeing development.

Still, energy diplomacy may set in motion this expansion beyond American boundaries. Energy diplomacy is described as a strategic strategy to manage international relations by means of coordinated and harmonic supply and demand chains of energy resources and markets. The war in Ukraine is a prime example where United States has used its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipments to Europe as tool, therefore, minimizing reliance on Russian fossil fuels.

Hence, Europe’s dependence on US markets has grown as it lessens its need for Russian energy. But this change may have just swapped one reliance with another, leaving Europe exposed to its suppliers. Furthermore, this US strategy has not done much to promote alternative energy sources which are fundamental components of the green transition. Therefore, even if energy diplomacy helps in this situation to solve current geopolitical concerns, it also must assist long-term climate protection objectives by employing improved energy security.

Gastech presents a unique opportunity to advance global energy cooperation and climate protection.

Although energy security mostly concentrates on immediate objectives, a major long-term goal is to lower the consumption of some kinds of energy in favor of transition fuels, such LNG as well as wind, solar, geothermal, and other sources of renewable or green energy that are indispensable to the efforts aimed at countering climate change.

Dealing with the fundamental problems resulting from resource competitiveness and climate change depends on energy security. It shapes energy diplomacy in building international frameworks of cooperation by varying energy profiles and between developed and developing states. This approach involves engaging with countries presently in early, or undeveloped stages in their energy route to allow a plan of transition to greener energy solutions that fits within reasonable infrastructural capability.

It also presupposes the understanding of the fact that geopolitical struggles always assign the second rank to global issues common to everyone. Having tremendous stakes in both conventional and non-conventional energy resources, the United States is in a good position to influence global projects while at the same time taking care of its requirements.

Europe’s dependence on US LNG highlights the complex dynamics of global energy security.

A great deal of opportunity to advance these goals can be found at one of the world’s premier events, Gastech, which will be held in Houston in September. The demonstrated goal of reaching a consensus at trade conferences or climate summits would mean that the states and the corporate sector negotiate and communicate pathways for an energy policy and formulate institutions for collective advancement.

Such cooperation also serves and/or contributes to mitigating the impacts of climate change and enhance energy equity security anywhere it is fostered. Knowing traditional, transitional, and renewable energy sources, the US energy industry might be rather significant in these international projects, and, therefore, advancing the global energy security and simultaneously serving its national interests.

The Chinese Yuan vs The US Dollar

By
Dr. Zukun Lyu
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US dollar vs Yuan

The Saudi government is negotiating to sell its oil at a price tied to the Chinese yuan. Although some nations would want the yuan to be replaced by the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, the status of the economy makes this impossible.

The US dollar has maintained its status as the world’s reserve currency since the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference.

Since the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference, the US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency. The US Treasury’s gold reserves helped establish the dollar to reach the status. As World War II ended, the United States had the world’s largest gold holdings. Other nations’ citizens choose US Treasury securities over US cash to bolster their currencies.

As Washington’s engagement in Vietnam persisted and US deficits rose, nations who owned US assets backed by US gold reserves were concerned. When nations started to trade US commodities for gold, US gold stockpiles fell. This fact eventually led to the US dollar being removed from the gold standard and converted by then-President Richard Nixon into a fiat currency. Since then other countries followed the United States’ approach and switched to fiat money, every country now uses it.

Even though the United States has switched to a fiat currency, the US dollar remains the most valuable in the world. The value of a country’s fiat currency is determined by its people’s perceived wealth and power; the United States stands head and shoulders above all others.

One of the reasons the United States seems to be so robust in preserving its dominant power position is its geographical location. With friendly countries to the north and south, an ocean on both sides and a climate conducive to world-class agricultural land, the United States has various natural advantages. It includes readily navigable rivers transporting goods and services from the country’s center. The development of oil fracturing will also help the United States become more energy-independent. In addition, there are 4.2 trillion untapped Green River Formation oil reserves.

China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated at 342 percent, posing significant risks to its economic stability.

This enduring strength may also be credited to the heritage of the US Constitution, which has made the continual transfer of political power between various political adversaries possible even after the riot and probable insurrection on January 6, 2021. So far, the United States has served as a beacon of stability in a world where economic situations may be harsh, and courts can be unpredictable.

Aside from the physical and non-physical advantages, the United States’ population provides the country with a competitive advantage in the industrial and domestic consumer sectors. Although the US population’s yearly growth rate is reaching stagnation, one might claim that the previous Trump administration’s strict immigration policies slowed demographic growth.

The COVID-19 outbreak exacerbates the slow rate of population growth in the United States. Currently, the projected global population increase by 2060 is between 376 million and 404 million. Nonetheless, the United States would remain a leading producer and consumer market. No other country has a comparable demographic advantage.

The widespread notion is that the United States is a declining nation, while China is a growing superpower. Although it is a widespread proverb, a cold and serious examination of the facts about China, the economic challenges it faces, like of natural resources and an aging population portrays a bleak image of the People’s Republic of China.

Geopolitician Peter Zeihan highlights that money is viewed as a political tool in China, unlike in the US, where it has intrinsic value.

Although many people cheer on China’s economic success and firms prostitute themselves to get access to China’s domestic market, few pay attention to the massive debt that is threatening the Chinese economy and the risks that such a collapse may entail. Chinese debt is estimated to be over $28 trillion. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 342% of GDP. Shadow finance is thought to be the reason the debt ratio is much higher.

Geopolitician Peter Zeihan compares and examines the concepts of money in China and the United States. In the United States, money is seen as an economic gain. Money is seen as a political good in China. Money has intrinsic value in the United States. Money is a political good in China; it is valuable only if it can be utilized to achieve a political goal.

China lacks the concepts of rate of return and profit margins, therefore, there is a danger; eventually, the law of supply and demand will triumph, and the Chinese economy will be forced to adapt. The damage that the inescapable correction will impose on the Chinese economy grows with the amount of time it takes to complete this economic adjustment.

The US Constitution’s legacy of peaceful power transitions contributes to the country’s enduring stability in a volatile world.

Although the United States has an open economy in which money may be transported in and out at will, the Chinese government regulates cash movement outside of the nation. Investors risk losing their whole wealth if a political crisis occurs that creates an economic disaster or escalates into a military conflict by restricting the flow of money in and out of China. Examining the bare bones data demonstrates the significant advantage of the US dollar over the Yuan. Any sensible economic operator would prefer to keep their money in the United States than in China.

The Growing Economic Footprint of Gulf States in Africa

By
Corinna Perini
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Gulf

Historically, the Arabian Peninsula was a major marine center linking East African trade routes to the Middle East. With greater economic ties throughout Africa key to their aspirations, three Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members — Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — are now establishing themselves as powerful middle powers.

Expanding their presence in the resource sectors of oil, gas, mining, and agriculture, the Gulf businesses and institutions are also heavily engaged in transportation infrastructure, logistics, and renewable energy. Still, Africa-Gulf relations show the difficulty of juggling possibilities and hazards in the developing multipolar age.

The UAE has emerged as one of the largest investors in Africa, with $100 billion in commitments.

Traditionally, the most solid ties between the GCC and Africa have been with North Africa, with a clear focus on Egypt. The Gulf States have long seen North Africa and the Horn of Africa as “extended neighborhoods”. Nevertheless, until recently the linkages between the GCC nations and these two regions were not especially strong despite the geographical closeness, common history, migration and commercial connections.

But the Gulf Arab participation in North Africa as well as the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea Rim has grown during the last 20 years. Nowadays, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are aggressively looking for economic possibilities and trying to establish their impact across the whole continent. To serve their business interests, they have expanded the number of their embassies across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Trade between Africa and the Gulf nations has shown a consistent increase recently. Reaching a record $154 billion in 2022, the Economist Intelligence Unit noted a notable rise in bilateral trade, thereby reducing the gap with China and Western Europe and positioning the GCC well ahead of the US and India. Although mining goods are a major import, commerce in other areas is growing, while oil and gas dominate GCC exports to Africa. Offering access to a bigger united African market, the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is projected to strengthen these links even further.

Except for Saudi Arabia, all the GCC governments have signed bilateral investment treaties (BIT) with African counterparts. Driven by ambitious promises to generate renewable energy like green hydrogen and build infrastructure like ports, warehouses, and data centers, the Gulf investors in Africa have lately made announcements of greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI). Last year, GCC firms revealed 73 FDI projects in Africa valued over $53 billion, claims fDi Markets. With $60 billion spread over 83 projects, 2022 was the only year with more FDI capital expenditure from the GCC investors.

About 85% of the more than $100 billion the GCC nations have poured into the continent comes from the UAE and Saudi Arabia. With promises significantly higher than those of China whose infrastructure financing has dropped, as well as France, the UK, and the US, the UAE has indeed become one of the biggest investors in Africa. Having 26,500 Africa-registered businesses, Dubai has also developed as a commercial center for Africa.

Gulf states are heavily funding copper, nickel, and other vital minerals critical for renewable energy technologies.

Investments from the Gulf States in Africa are mostly focused on three areas — natural resources (hydrocarbons, mining, and agriculture), port infrastructure and transport hubs, and renewable energy and technologies.

Using their project funding and experience, oil and gas giants Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are increasing their presence throughout the whole energy value chain. Targeting oil sustainability with Chad, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Senegal, Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman inked agreements last November at the Saudi Arabia-African Economic Conference. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco intends to make investments in the revival of four state refineries in Nigeria, which have been non-operable for years, therefore necessitating reliance on imports for gasoline.

Last December, the UAE committed to provide both technical and financial support for building an offshore gas pipeline that would carry Nigerian gas to Morocco, which has become a significant target for Emirati investments drawing a combined $30 billion.

April saw reports of “intensified” discussions with Alpha MBM Investments, located in Dubai, positioned as the main developer and investor in the planned $4 billion refinery in Uganda. Complementing the company’s efforts to increase its lower-carbon LNG portfolio, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) said the following month that it had bought Galp’s 10% equity share in Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG project.

Targeting high-potential areas for increased refined product sales, the UAE’s state-owned oil and gas giants such ADNOC and the Emirates National Oil Company Group (ENOC) are also expanding their storage and distribution networks throughout Africa.

GCC nations are increasingly focused on food security by investing in African agriculture and controlling the entire food supply chain.

ENOC and Tanzania’s Ministry of Energy signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in January 2023, aiming at building a receiving and storage facility for gas and oil products. Two months later, ADNOC, Aramco, and ENOC inked contracts, agreeing to provide Kenya with petroleum products. Among many businesses reportedly assessing offers for Shell’s downstream assets in South Africa are ADNOC and Aramco.

Focusing on gas resource acquisition, Qatar Gas has partnered with Jeniks Energy Group to manage investment in the gas industry across Africa. As part of their joint venture ambitions to develop the Orange basin region in surrounding Namibia, QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies said in May they would purchase participation interests in offshore oil and gas blocks in South Africa. More recently, Qatar Energy signed a contract with Exxon Mobil to acquire a forty percent participation in two ultra-deep water exploration zones off the coast of Egypt.

Particularly in the mining sector — including its vital minerals sector — the Gulf nations are digging into Africa. They are heavily funding copper, nickel, and other minerals required for power transmission lines, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy among the worldwide push for sustainable energy solutions and China’s supremacy in mineral processing.

Though the specifics are unknown, the UAE and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) state-owned Sakima mining firm inked a $1.9 billion agreement in July 2023 to develop four vital mineral mines. With a $1.1 billion acquisition of a 51% share in Zambia’s Mopani Copper Mines in December 2023, International Resources Holding (IRH), the mining investment arm of Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company (IHC), In Zambia, IRH teamed with Jubilee Metals Group in a copper recovery and processing project.

Rising as a major participant in the African mining sector is Saudi Arabia which wants to become a processing center for battery materials and boost economic contribution from $17 billion to $75 billion by 2035. Four African nations have agreements with the Kingdom for investigating mining prospects. With a network of activities in Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Zambia, Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden — mostly controlled by the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the biggest multi-committee mining and metals corporation in the Middle East — has grown into prominence in Africa.

Saudi Arabia and UAE are leading the charge in building port infrastructure and transportation hubs across Africa.

For the GCC nations who have focused on agro-investments in Africa, food security is an absolute top concern. They have always handled their food supply concerns very well. But the 2007–2008 food crisis — characterized by food export restrictions in more than thirty nations — inspired initiatives to guarantee a consistent supply. The Gulf States’ concerns about food security have been reignited by the COVID-19 epidemic and the disturbance in global supply systems related to the Ukraine war.

Following their food security policies, Saudi Arabia and UAE have led the way in investing in African agriculture for more than 10 years via contract farming, acquisition of agricultural businesses, and lease or purchase of substantial areas of land. Land purchases have sped up in the last several years. Agricultural land in Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Angola has been acquired by Emirati corporations such Dubai Investments and the Abu Dhabi-based E20 Investments.

Most of the 14 pending land purchase agreements the UAE has are in Africa. From crop cultivation to processing and export of the finished good and sales, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are now developing nations with complete control of the food supply chain.

With an eye on creating significant financial returns and supporting food resilience, the Gulf firms are creating food and agricultural portfolios. Al Dahra Agricultural Company runs four large agricultural projects in Egypt, mostly supplying the local market with wheat and other food crops. And 50% of its shares are owned by Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund ADQ.

The UAE’s Elite Agro Projects revealed last October its intentions to open a tea plant in Uganda and a wheat farm in Ethiopia. Targeting a number of important areas, including food production, ADQ established a financing and investment structure with Kenya last April.

Just like the UAE, the respective approaches adopted by Saudi Arabia and Qatar for food security center on raising local production while making investments in worldwide supply networks to get preferential access to key commodities. Recently, many Saudi teams visited South Africa and Nigeria as well as other East African nations to look into agricultural business prospects. Hence, agribusiness transactions have been explored by companies such Gulf Saudi Star Agricultural Development and Qatar’s Hassad Food in Ethiopia, Uganda, and elsewhere.

Gulf nations are expanding their involvement in Africa’s renewable energy sector, including green hydrogen and sustainable fuels.

UAE’s ambitions go beyond just growing its own food to include becoming a food trading center. Therefore, thanks to a network of ports and logistical hubs, the many Emirati businesses in the food and agricultural sectors in Africa are progressively linked to the UAE.

A pillar approach for GCC governments has been investing in port infrastructure, controlling important transport hubs, and either supporting or investing in African transport and logistics enterprises. The UAE has several African ports and is leading in establishing deeper links with the African transportation industry. Over $1.8 billion has been invested by DP World, a logistics business located in Dubai, to Africa over the previous 10 years. Going forward, it intends to contribute another $3 billion.

Currently, DP World ranks among the biggest port operators in Africa. Its ports on the sea and inland transport terminals as well as other activities are spread throughout the continent. And for $890 million, it bought Imperial Logistics, the largest distributor in South Africa in March 2022. To run the diverse Dar es Salaam Port, DP World signed a 30-year concession contract with the Tanzanian government in October.

It has also launched a $80 million logistics park, which would relate to its current cargo terminal in Ain Sokhna Port in Egypt. The business revealed in June intentions to spend $3 billion to build new port and logistical hubs throughout Africa.

Abu Dhabi has increased its own expenditure in African port development during the previous several years. An example of this are the concession agreements and collaboration accords with Sudan and Tanzania (2022), Angola, Republic of Congo-Brzzaville, Egypt (2023), which Abu Dhabi Ports Group has inked.

Targeting to improve the Kingdom’s product and export flow via Africa’s gateway, the Federation of Saudi Chambers inked a 92-year deal with Djibouti Ports and Free Zones Authority in June to construct a logistics free zone at the Port of Djibouti. Focusing on many industries in more than a dozen African nations, investment financing from the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) has gone up. Recently, it teamed with Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) to find and jointly execute infrastructure projects all throughout the continent.

With an eye on renewable energy, hydrogen, and sustainable fuels, the Gulf States are expanding the range of their involvement in Africa’s energy industry. For cooperation in producing green hydrogen and its derivatives, Riyadh-based ACWA Power inked a MoU with Industrial production Corporation (IDC) of South Africa in late 2022.

Masdar, a state-owned renewable energy business from Abu Dhabi, bought a share in South Africa’s Lekela Power that year and is now working with Germany’s Conjuncta and Egypt’s Infinity on the west coast of Mauritania. With its headquarters in Dubai, URB, a development company, is spending $20 billion on building the most sustainable metropolis on the continent — called “The Parks” — in South Africa.

While Gulf investments in Africa present opportunities, they also raise concerns about political unrest and exploitation.

The UAE promised $4.5 billion at the Africa Climate Summit last year to hasten initiatives including sustainable energy. With backing from AMEA Power, Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, and Etihad Credit to close the financing gap, Masdar in association with Africa50 seeks to scale up renewable energy projects. Operating in more than a dozen African nations, Dubai-based AMEA Power LLC intends to commit $1 billion on renewable projects, including building a green hydrogen factory in Kenya. Concurrently, TAQA Morocco, under ownership of Abu Dhabi National Energy Company, intends to invest $1.6 billion in renewable energy projects.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power is the biggest GCC-based investor in the renewable energy industry of South Africa and the leading stakeholder in the Redstone concentrated solar power (CSP) facility.  Entering a joint venture with Enel Green Power SA, Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) also engaged in clean energy production in South Africa.

Driven by common goals of economic diversification, investment, and sustainable development, economic links between the Gulf States and Africa are blossoming. That stated, the Africa-Gulf relations mirror the conflict between the possibilities and hazards present in the contemporary multipolar period.

Investing in Africa gives the GCC countries access to geopolitical power, fresh markets, and natural resources. These investments also boost their attempts at economic diversification and food security. The disadvantages, however, include possible local community reaction and political unrest.

Gulf investments and alliances are timely and highly needed for African nations.

Among the drawbacks, it is difficult to overlook the Gulf States’ support to the authoritarian governments and militias; extensive smuggling networks allowing illegal financial flows; Dubai providing refuge to many African oligarchs; and possible exploitation of local communities and surroundings by means of investments in mineral and food resources.

Still, the African leaders can shape results, while the GCC countries and businesses have names to maintain. Both sides may guarantee mutually beneficial economic relations by supporting open trade practices, investing in sustainable initiatives, enhancing regulatory frameworks to stop exploitation, and thus forging alliances that make local economic development a top priority.

The New BRICS Currency and Payment Systems?

By
Dr. Nhien Tran
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BRICS

Amid great debates and high expectations for developing an economic clout, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and their allies are excitedly awaiting the introduction of a new currency and the creation of a new payment system at the forthcoming October 2024 summit in Kazan, Russia.

Following accepted procedures, Russia took over the one-year presidency of the BRICS on January 1, 2024. Over 250 activities scheduled under Russia’s presidency will lead to the BRICS conference in Kazan in October 2024. From its inception in 2006, BRICS have had two eras of expansion. In 2011 South Africa joined the original group in addition to China, Russia, India, and Brazil. On January 1, 2024, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates became the five new official members of BRICS.

The BRICS have spent the previous several months delving deeply into the importance of their reformed procedures and a balanced approach for reestablishing the world’s dollar-based monetary system to clear their common determination to attain these economic policy goals.

The BRICS have spent the previous several months delving deeply into the importance of their reformed procedures and a balanced approach for reestablishing the world’s dollar-based monetary system to clear their common determination to attain these economic policy goals.

Acknowledging the close working links among members, BRICS has been constantly communicating and collaborating with a like-minded coalition of allies and global corporate players to show its readiness for a historic collective decision on this, which is expected in couple of months. Several initiatives under Russia’s BRICS leadership have made great progress toward their objectives in line with the values and resolutions adopted during the XV BRICS conference in South Africa.

Over the last several months, there has been a lot of back-and-forth on these economic projects; yet the strategic ideas for their future expansion with the inclusion of emerging countries from the Global South remain unchangeable. There is a massive information campaign in progress meant to distribute the reputations of the US and Europe. This implies that the 2006-formed “informal alliance” BRICS has attracted interest from some strong countries becoming increasingly unhappy with western supremacy.

Data recorded by reliable international media shows that more than thirty countries have indicated they want to be BRICS members. Acknowledging the increased desire, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted that “the modalities of ascension have to be collectively discussed” at further summits, even if during Russia’s leadership the integration of additional new members into BRICS has been stopped.

Chairman of an expert council tasked with running Russia’s presidency; Viktoria Panova claimed that the upcoming summit—the final one under Russia’s BRICS leadership—would mostly concentrate on establishing a unified payment system. There are present projects to create a financial payment system to help the BRICS countries cooperate while maintaining their freedom in trade and economic ties. The expert, who was cited by the local Russian media, said that this is top priority as everyone in the group finds it important.

There is a massive information campaign in progress meant to distribute the reputations of the US and Europe.

Reports late in July revealed that the BRICS nations had developed a system like SWIFT, the worldwide financial messaging network blocked as part of the sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. The cornerstone of the method will be the BRICS Bridge international payment system. Transactions will take place using the currencies of the BRICS members, the New Development Bank acts as a clearinghouse and integration tool. As Panova pointed out, however, it is as important to consider how the recently joined BRICS countries will interact with the New Development Bank.

As the BRICS group aims to challenge the US dollar’s dominance as the world’s main currency, the creation of a payment system has taken front stage on their priorities. The financial project is supposed to present itself at the pinnacle of 2024. What is informally known as the BRICS Bridge has received support for a variety of reasons and suggestions to evade the West-dependent SWIFT system. Once the US dollar is in use, developing countries—especially those in the Global South—may be able to wean themselves off it and maybe even promote the use of their own national currency in trade dealings.

Four countries — Bangladesh, the UAE, Uruguay, and Egypt — have joined the New Development Bank (NDB), which its members established in 2015 to rival the current international financial institutions. Originally, the members of the BRICS alliance are South Africa, Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Ever since the NDB was established, policymakers have been wondering about its operations since, unlike more obvious multilateral financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, little is known about it and its skeletal organizational structure and limited investment profile.

From its founding to the present, as the NDB enters its second decade, scholarly debates and research on the BRICS Bank have been underdeveloped. Released in July by Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center scholar Gregory T. Chin, “The ‘New’ New Development Bank: A Decade Plus in the Making” generated many questions. Among the very legitimate questions are those about the uniqueness of the NDB’s leadership and program as well as its achievements over the last ten years, especially in connection to its present concentration on de-dollarization and multipolarity.

Once the US dollar is in use, developing countries—especially those in the Global South—may be able to wean themselves off it and maybe even promote the use of their own national currency in trade dealings.

The prospect of adding members to the NDB raises the issue of why. Though South Africa was not initially included in O’Neill’s first formulation—which focused on Brazil, Russia, India, and China—he revisits the notion of the “BRICs,” a label he devised, for this collection. Like the issue of the BRICS expansion, O’Neill argues, the NDB membership expansion process and criteria must be worked out.

They also must agree on the admission standards, which must be related to a redefining of particular aims and communal objectives. They also require a well-defined scope of activity and value-added as they will be working together eventually. O’Neill argues that if the main petro-states in the Middle East and Gulf joined the NDB in 2023, it would support the bank’s efforts to encourage the use of local currencies.

Considering the original intent of the BRICS countries in establishing the NDB—to increase its worldwide visibility and presence, to seek out new approaches that advance a developmental agenda in the South—in terms of membership growth, regional offices, outreach, and partnerships, or in terms of the more concrete objectives of encouraging the use of local currencies, combating climate change and environmental protection, and promoting sustainable infrastructure and renewable energy—it is reasonable to question whether the members and upper management have been courageous enough in their efforts to build up the bank.

Professionals attending a separate webinar meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, agreed that digitizing the economy involves several moving components. Among these were the requirement of early establishment of rules and simplification of procedures. Using common market definition techniques to digital markets may be challenging as they are typically more creative and dynamic than traditional ones. One of the issues in handling digital marketplaces is this.

They also require a well-defined scope of activity and value-added as they will be working together eventually.

Although the BRICS alliance is currently very unofficial, as the membership count rises it is beginning to operate more actively. The more it evolves, the more real-world problems and conflicts surface. Although the BRICS nations have united on the need of consumer welfare standards and other basic rules, analysts have noted clear disparities even in this regard.

The governments of several countries, like Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa, admit other objectives such ensuring economic freedom or a level playing field for small and medium-sized businesses. Some kind of development in more complex legal standards for assessing abuse of power might help to reach these goals. This covers the issue of antitrust control, which both national governments and many interstate organizations may have.

As the BRICS economies grow, several analysts—including Victor Oliveira Fernandes of the Brazilian Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), Alexey Ivanov of the BRICS Competition Law and Policy Center, Deni Mantzari of the University College of London, and others—have observed that their strategies toward competition policy should reflect that.

Still, there are other important issues like a new antitrust-based approach for internet economy regulation. It is important to underline, nonetheless, that combating the violations of fair competition rules by global monopolists in local markets calls for cooperation exactly within the framework of supranational institutions.

Still, the group’s first concern is developing fresh assessment criteria and standards. CADE Commissioner Victor Oliveira Fernandes mentioned in his presentation that their company has already created many new metrics to characterize the platform industry. These include lack of openness, control of significant information, influence over choice via online platform design, and the ability to unilaterally impose conditions—as an indication of negotiating power.

The BRICS Bridge would have an expected impact because most BRICS members have openly expressed their support for a de-dollarization plan or process—a sad destiny for the Western currency—as well as for unilateral trade.

Several academics and policy analysts and some BRICS members confirmed to the author of this article in separate interviews carried out in early August that the evolution of the BRICS payment platform has reached a major stage and, if continuing as planned, would lead to a worldwide explosion. The BRICS Bridge would have an expected impact because most BRICS members have openly expressed their support for a de-dollarization plan or process—a sad destiny for the Western currency — as well as for unilateral trade. Over time, however, it might increase overall trade and — more importantly — solidify fresh bonds between the members of associations.

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