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The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and Its Regional Impact

By
Dr. Ghulam Mujaddid
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In a comprehensive report by the United Nations monitoring team, the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been designated as the most significant terrorist group operating within Afghanistan.

In a comprehensive report by the United Nations monitoring team, the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been designated as the most significant terrorist group operating within Afghanistan. This report brings to light the expanding influence and operational capabilities of the TTP, largely attributed to increased support from the Afghan Taliban and factions of Al-Qaeda.

The UN report highlights that the TTP has received considerable operational and logistical backing from the Afghan Taliban. This support has been pivotal in enhancing the TTP’s capabilities, allowing them to sustain and even expand their operations within Afghanistan and beyond. The symbiotic relationship between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP is particularly concerning, as it indicates a mutual benefit derived from their collaboration. The Afghan Taliban’s reluctance or inability to dismantle the TTP’s presence underscores the complexity of their relationship and the challenges in combating terrorism in the region.

The report estimates that the TTP commands a formidable force of 6,000 to 6,500 fighters within Afghanistan. Despite their significant presence and the threat they pose, the Afghan Taliban do not categorize the TTP as a terrorist organization. Instead, they maintain close ties with the group, facilitating its operations within Afghanistan and across the border into Pakistan.

This relationship allows TTP fighters to use Afghan territory as a staging ground for terrorist activities aimed at destabilizing Pakistan.

A particularly troubling aspect of the UN report is the documented increase in the number of attacks carried out by the TTP against Pakistan. The group has been effectively recruiting and utilizing Afghan nationals to execute these operations, thereby intensifying the cross-border terrorist threat. The TTP’s strategy appears to be one of gradual escalation, steadily increasing the frequency and intensity of their assaults on Pakistani targets. This pattern of increased aggression not only threatens the security of Pakistan but also destabilizes the broader region.

Further exacerbating the threat is the collaboration between the TTP and Al-Qaeda. The report reveals that TTP operatives are being trained in Al-Qaeda camps, alongside local fighters. This training alliance enhances the operational proficiency of TTP fighters and underscores the deepening ties between these terrorist organizations. The shared training and resources between the TTP and Al-Qaeda signal a significant threat, as it combines the strengths and capabilities of both groups, making them more formidable adversaries.

The resurgence of the TTP, with the backing of the Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda, poses a severe threat to Pakistan’s security and stability. The increased frequency of cross-border attacks has strained Pakistan’s security apparatus, forcing the country to allocate more resources to counter-terrorism operations. This constant state of vigilance has significant economic and social costs, as it diverts resources from other critical areas such as development and education. Moreover, the persistent threat from the TTP complicates Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan. The inability of the Afghan Taliban to curb the TTP’s activities raises questions about their commitment to regional stability and their role in harboring terrorists.

This situation exacerbates existing tensions and undermines efforts to foster cooperation between the two countries.

The implications of the TTP’s activities extend beyond Pakistan and Afghanistan, affecting the broader South Asian region. The instability in Pakistan has the potential to spill over into neighboring countries, creating a ripple effect that undermines regional security. Countries in the region are forced to contend with the threat of terrorism, which can disrupt trade, investment, and economic growth. Additionally, the TTP’s resurgence has implications for international efforts to combat terrorism. The deepening ties between the TTP and Al-Qaeda highlight the evolving nature of terrorist networks and the need for a coordinated, global response. The international community must recognize the interconnectedness of these threats and work together to address the root causes of terrorism, such as poverty, lack of education, and political instability.

The UN report paints a concerning picture of the evolving terrorist landscape in Afghanistan. The TTP’s resurgence, bolstered by the Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda, poses a significant threat not only to Pakistan but to regional stability. The inability or unwillingness of the Afghan Taliban to confront the TTP underlines the complex and intertwined relationships that challenge counter-terrorism efforts in the region. As the TTP continues to grow in strength and capability, it remains imperative for regional and international stakeholders to address this threat comprehensively. The report serves as a stark reminder of the persistent and evolving nature of terrorism in South Asia and the urgent need for coordinated efforts to mitigate its impact. The future stability of the region depends on the ability of nations to work together, sharing intelligence, resources, and strategies to combat the threat posed by groups like the TTP.

Under the Arabian Sky: The Diplomatic Symphony of Doha Talks III

By
Husnain Haider
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Doha Talks III

The third meeting in the series of UN-led meetings concerning the interaction of the Taliban regime with the international community and its potential integration into the global system was held in Doha on 30th June and 1st July 2024, respectively. The conference, referred to as ‘Doha Talks III’ was attended by special representatives to Afghanistan including Pakistani and Indian diplomats. In addition, this marked the first time the Taliban regime interacted with the global world as a part of this conference, where they were not invited to the table in the first talk, held in May 2023, and boycotted the second, held in February 2024.

It is important to note the circumstances under which the Taliban regime was coaxed enough to engage with the international community on a diplomatic front.

The Taliban were clever enough to set up terms and conditions to attend and participate in the conference, among which one of the prominent conditions was no discussion on the human rights issues in Afghanistan, which encompasses the rights of women and young girls such as provision to education, freedom to work and access to the necessities of life.

It is also worth noting that the element of the security situation of Afghanistan was absent from the official agenda of the conference. The agenda of the conference primarily focused on the progress of anti-narcotics in the country, the discussion of alternatives to poppy cultivation, and very rarely, climate change, in context to the immeasurable damage natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes have caused the country in the last decade.

Apart from being a vocal critic of the Afghan regime for providing safe havens for terrorism, Pakistan flexed her diplomatic muscles on this very tour, where Pakistan’s special representative for the Afghan talks Asif Durrani, invited the chief Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid for a dinner at the Pakistan house, hosted on the sidelines of the main Doha talks. This dinner is ascribed to a wide spectrum of discussions focusing on building relations and easing tensions between the two neighbors. Tensions between the two states have been building highly at risk ever since the American withdrawal in late 2021 and Islamabad stipulating the option of cross-border strikes at TTP hideouts in the country following a resurgence in terrorism.

The Afghan delegation was assured of the fact that there was no issue between the neighbors, except that the TTP continues to carry out cross-border terrorism and seek safe havens on the other side of the Durand line and IS-KP, rendered as a common threat to both neighbors. Ambassador Durrani reassured the opening of new avenues in terms of trade and commerce for the country, and advocacy for the resolution financial crises in Afghanistan if these issues are curbed by the Taliban regime. On the prevailing stance of the Pakistani government against the TTP, pressurizing the Afghan regime, this diplomatic dining initiative promulgated in Qatar seems to ease the eyes from which both countries view each other and has the potential of transforming this dispute, from a destructive towards a more constructive and optimistic approach.

The issue of Afghan refugees remained of secondary importance, and the Ambassador urged the sponsor countries which were mainly Western to expedite their processes of granting the the Afghan citizenship as pledged.

However, the opportunity presented to Pakistan’s arch nemesis, in these UN-led meetings provided multiple opportunities to tighten the soft power grip the Modi regime has been spreading over the last 3 terms and ensure their economic investment. India has invested more than $3 Billion in Afghanistan over the period, which includes utility and transport projects, among which the construction of the Shahtoot dam is of extreme prominence because it will reduce the flow of the Kabul River in Pakistan Kautilian neighbors and economic concerns aside, India’s security concerns regarding influence in the region are also one of the reasons that prompted it to participate in the Doha talks, where it ensured the advocacy of human rights towards the Afghanistan regime.

Looking at it from a birds-eye view, 16 countries have established their embassies in Afghanistan, and the main problem that stops the countries from recognizing the Taliban regime is the inclusivity and human rights of the people, which has been labeled by human rights organizations as an absolute gender apartheid deducing primarily be one of the reasons why the funds for the government are not being unfrozen despite persistent advocacy from neighboring states.

For the Taliban however, this conference can be perceived as a constructive approach. Firstly, it was the first occasion on which they displayed their diplomatic intellect, and according to Western diplomats, they were diplomatically very mature which promised new avenues of cooperation for the states in the region.

The Doha Talks being in this constructive phase has the potential to shape the future of the entire region, as Afghanistan plays an effective role concerning peace and stability towards its neighbours.

French Elections : Political Instability

By
Dr. Moonis Ahmar
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Political Instability

The second round of parliamentary elections held in France on July 7 plunged the country into a serious phase of political instability because neither the left-wing coalition led by socialists won a majority, nor President Emmanuel Macron’s alliance nor the far right RN led by Marine Le Pen could claim victory. Contrary to expectation, RN failed to win parliamentary polls and got third position.

When the French President announced snap parliamentary elections for electing a 577-seat parliament, it was projected that Le Pen’s National Rally would gain a majority in the June 30 polls. But no political party emerged victories and the second round of elections took place on July 7 in which the New Popular Front (NFP) which was formed in haste to stop RN from coming into power emerged as the single largest block. Composed of heterogeneous political groups ranging from far left to communists, socialists, and greens, NPF along with President Macron’s Ensemble, managed to defeat RN. It means RN, which is known for its anti-immigration and adhering to far-right ideology may not be able to win the 2027 presidential elections.

The left who had clinched it, and Emmanuel Macron’s centrists had staged an unexpected comeback, pushing the far-right National Rally (RN) into third.

What are the implications of the crushing defeat of far-right RN and how the NFP will be able to form a government on its own or will go for power sharing with Macron’s centrist Ensemble will be judged in the coming days. The loss of RN and its number third position in the July 7 elections reflects the efforts of President Emmanuel to prevent the far right from coming into power and yielded positive results. Immediately after the announcement of election results the potential Prime Minister and leader of NEP Jean-Luc Melenchon called on French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to resign as he claimed that the left-wing coalition was in a position to form the government on its own.

There was a high turnout of 61.4% in the second round of elections held on July 7 which sealed the faith of ultra-right RN paving the way for left-wing and centrist candidates belonging to NFP and Ensemble to prevent far-right RN gain a majority. It is also possible that current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will try to form a minority government by reaching an alliance with Macron’s Ensemble to stop the left-wing coalition NFP from coming to power. Whatever, will be the outcome of power squabbling in France following the July 7 elections and the emergence of a hung parliament, France will pass through an era of political instability particularly when Europe is passing through a crucial phase.

If a hung parliament is the future of French democracy with diverse coalition groups struggling to gain power, the election results of July 7 surprised many. According to BBC in its commentary “What just happened in France’s shock elections?” by Paul Kirby on July 8, “Nobody expected this. High drama, for sure, but this was a shock.  When the graphics flashed up on all the big French channels, it was not the far right of Marine Le Pen and her young prime minister-in-waiting Jordan Bardella who were on course for victory. It was the left who had clinched it, and Emmanuel Macron’s centrists had staged an unexpected comeback, pushing the far-right National Rally (RN) into third.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the veteran left-wing firebrand seen by his critics as an extremist, wasted no time in proclaiming victory. “The president must call on the New Popular Front to govern,” he told supporters in Stalingrad square, insisting Mr. Macron had to recognize that he and his coalition had lost. His alliance, drawn up in a hurry for President Macron’s surprise election, includes his own radical France Unbowed, along with Greens, Socialists and Communists, and even Trotskyists. But their victory is nowhere big enough to govern”.

A stable government in France to deal with issues of inflation, unemployment, pensioners and immigration is a major predicament for the future government. By not seeking a majority in the 577-seat parliament, it will be an uphill task for the French President to enable his country to play a leadership role in the European Union, NATO, the war in Ukraine, and the armed conflict in Gaza. Certainly, with more than 15% of its population composed of immigrants, coming into power with Le Pen’s far-right RN would have been a nightmare and plunged Europe’s leading democracy into a perpetual state of crisis, conflict, and hostility.

The president must call on the New Popular Front to govern, declared Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

The far-right wave which has succeeded in gaining power in Hungary, Italy, and the Netherlands would have got an impetus had it won July 7 parliamentary elections in France. Far-right anti-immigrant parties like AfD (Alternate for Deutschland) and Swiss People’s Party, Swedes Democrats, Austria’s Freedom Party and Finns Party are trying to get political space by targeting immigrants, rising cost of living, raising slogans of Islam phobia and unemployment.

In the recently held elections of the European parliament, the far-right European People’s Party emerged as the single largest bloc reflecting the surge of the far-right wave in Europe. According to a report by Al-Jazeera entitled, “European Parliament at crossroads as right-wing parties triumph in EU vote” on June 12, 2024, “The ground beneath the feet of European Union leaders has shifted after voting across the 27-member bloc delivered a clear turn to the right in the European Parliament, shaking up governments in member states and leaving mainstream groups at a crossroads.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen claimed victory after her center-right European People’s Party (EPP) maintained the most seats of any single group in the legislative body. It scored a clear victory in the elections, tightening its influence in the European Parliament with 185 of its 720 seats”. It was the surge of far-right groups in European parliament elections that prompted French President Macron to announce snap national polls. According to Reuters in its report, “Far-right advances in EU election, France calls the snap national vote” of June 10, 2024: “While the center, liberal and Socialist parties were set to retain a majority in the 720-seat parliament.

The vote dealt a domestic blow to the leaders of both France and Germany, raising questions about how the European Union’s major powers can drive policy in the bloc. A rightwards shift inside the European Parliament may make it tougher to pass new legislation that might be needed to respond to security challenges, the impact of climate change, or industrial competition from China and the United States”.

One can gauge three major implications of the far-right debacle in recently held French parliamentary elections. First, it is the ideology of democracy that has enabled anti-far-right groups in Europe to unite and defeat the forces of retrogression, hate, and intolerance. The French election results prove that if anti-far-right forces are united the future of democracy can be secure. Likewise, the surge of far-right AfD in Germany and its entry into the European parliament is a source of alarm for those who fear the rise of neo-Nazis.

There can be an analogy in combating ultra-far right in Europe and India. For example, the Hindu nationalist BJP which won only 2 seats in the 1984 October Lok Sabah (lower house) elections of the Indian parliament secured 303 seats in the 2019 elections. It was only after the realization by secular and democratic parties that only by uniting they can defeat the ultra-right BJP that they deprived that party of gaining a two-thirds majority in the 2024 Indian elections. Second, even after losing RN will not give up its efforts to gain power in France. Its nexus with other ultra-right parties in Europe and its presence in the European parliament will certainly keep its deterrent for the democratic and liberal forces of Europe.

It means that unless the issues that led to the surge of ultra-right are seriously dealt with, threats to democracy, enlightenment, and tolerance will remain.

Even after losing in France, ultra-right wing ideology will not recede because it sees anger and antagonism, particularly among youths of Europe as an opportunity to strengthen their network to augment their drive against immigrants. Finally, it depends on the power, capability, and capacity of countering ultra-right-wing forces not only in the West but elsewhere to reverse the process of hate, intolerance, and violence. The role of a vibrant civil society and those who are enlightened to prevent fascist and violent forces from taking power is essential. In its essence, the anti-BJP political parties under the banner of INDIA (Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance) are a vivid example to prove that once they are united, ultra-right wing forces, who have an agenda composed of retrogression and intolerance can be defeated.

India’s Deceptive Strategies

By
Naila Ahmed
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In the complex geopolitical landscape of South Asia, the Afghan Interim Government must reassess its perception of India.

In the complex geopolitical landscape of South Asia, the Afghan Interim Government must reassess its perception of India. The notion that India is a friend of Afghanistan is a dangerous misconception. India’s historical and current policies clearly illustrate a pattern of deceit and hostility towards Muslims and specifically, Afghan Pashtuns.

India’s internal policies and cultural outputs reflect deep-seated anti-Muslim sentiments. Films such as “Padmaavat” and “Panipat” portray Afghan Pashtuns as barbaric and treacherous. This portrayal extends beyond cinema, with the Indian film industry routinely depicting Muslims as criminals, drug dealers, and terrorists. This deliberate misrepresentation is part of a broader agenda to foster hatred and prejudice against Afghan Pashtuns globally. The impact of these portrayals on the global audience cannot be understated. They perpetuate stereotypes and reinforce negative perceptions of Muslims and Pashtuns, painting them as enemies of humanity. This cultural strategy aligns with India’s broader political objective to marginalize Muslim communities and undermine their credibility on the international stage. By shaping public perception through media, India ensures that its anti-Muslim narrative gains traction and support, both domestically and internationally.

The plight of Afghan refugees in India further underscores India’s duplicitous nature. Among the 21,000 Afghan refugees in India, 11,000 are seeking asylum but have not been granted official refugee status. This lack of recognition leaves refugees in a state of limbo, unable to access basic rights and services. Their uncertain status reflects India’s unwillingness to provide genuine support and protection to those fleeing conflict and persecution. Additionally, India’s recent cancellation of visas for 2,500 Afghan students has left their futures uncertain. This act of betrayal undermines trust and disrupts the educational pursuits of Afghan youth.

By expelling Afghan students from universities under the guise of administrative reasons, India betrays the fundamental principles of international cooperation and educational exchange. This move not only affects the individual students but also damages the bilateral relationship between the two countries.

India’s involvement in Afghanistan is not limited to cultural and political undermining. By supporting terrorist organizations like ISKP and TTP, India has sown unrest and instability in Afghanistan. These groups, funded and guided by India, target China’s interests in South and Central Asia, operating under a unified agenda against Afghan interests. ISKP leader Abdul Rahim Muslim Dost’s connections with India highlight this disturbing collaboration, revealing India as a key player in perpetuating violence in the region. The strategic use of these terrorist organizations serves multiple purposes for India. It creates chaos and instability in Afghanistan, weakening the Afghan government and making it more susceptible to Indian influence. Moreover, it allows India to counter Chinese influence in the region, aligning with broader geopolitical strategies. This manipulation of terrorist groups illustrates India’s willingness to exploit regional conflicts for its gain, regardless of the human cost.

India’s alliance with Israel further reveals its anti-Muslim stance. Since establishing military ties in the 1960s, India has been a steadfast supporter of Israel’s actions against Palestinians. Recent shipments of 27 tons of lethal ammunition from India to Israel, alongside joint ventures like the production of HERMES900 drones used against Palestinian Muslims, highlight this unholy alliance. The replacement of Palestinian workers with Indian laborers after the October 7 attacks exemplifies India’s willingness to contribute to Palestinian suffering for economic gain. This collaboration extends beyond military support. It represents a shared ideological commitment to marginalizing and oppressing Muslim populations. The historical and ongoing support for Israeli actions against Palestinians underscores India’s alignment with policies that directly harm Muslim communities.

By participating in and supporting Israel’s military endeavors, India positions itself as a complicit actor in the ongoing conflict in Palestine, revealing its true stance towards Muslims globally.

The Modi government’s policies have exacerbated the suffering of Muslims in illegally occupied Kashmir. Over the last decade, India has imported military equipment worth $2.9 billion from Israel, using these resources to oppress Kashmiri Muslims. This military collaboration underscores the shared objectives of India and Israel against Muslim populations. The use of advanced military technology against civilians in Kashmir illustrates the extent of India’s oppressive policies. These actions are not isolated incidents but part of a systematic approach to control and subjugate the Muslim population in the region. The use of Israeli weaponry, known for its effectiveness in urban warfare, against unarmed civilians highlights the brutal nature of India’s occupation and its disregard for human rights.

Under the guise of promoting religious diversity, India has built Hindu temples in the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Bahrain. This move, however, masks a deeper agenda of eroding Islamic cultural and social roots, undermining the religious and cultural integrity of Muslim communities. By establishing these temples, India seeks to project an image of religious tolerance while simultaneously undermining the foundations of Muslim-majority societies. This strategy of cultural infiltration is part of a broader plan to diminish the influence of Islam in the region. By promoting Hinduism in Muslim countries, India aims to create divisions and weaken the unity of Muslim communities.

This cultural imperialism is a subtle yet effective way to exert influence and control over the region, furthering India’s geopolitical objectives.

Given these realities, the Afghan Interim Government must acknowledge that India is neither a friend nor a trustworthy ally. India’s consistent betrayal and subversive activities necessitate a complete severance of ties. Afghanistan should take decisive action against terrorist organizations funded by India, expelling them from Afghan soil. Cooperation with Pakistan to eradicate these groups is crucial for regional stability and peace. By focusing on economic prosperity and regional harmony, Afghanistan can uphold the true spirit of Islam, protecting its people and fostering a future of peace and development. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan must recognize that India’s friendship is a facade, and its true intentions are detrimental to Afghan sovereignty and Muslim unity. The Afghan Interim Government should act swiftly to safeguard its interests and ensure the well-being of its people, free from the deceptive influence of India.

From Economic Stability to Political Uncertainty

By
Sohail Javed
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After a prolonged period of turmoil, Pakistan finally began to witness signs of economic stability.

After a prolonged period of turmoil, Pakistan finally began to witness signs of economic stability. The government’s significant achievement in curbing the dollar’s rising price, bringing it down from 320 rupees per dollar to 278 rupees per dollar, marked a turning point. This reduction resulted in a record decrease in the inflation rate, offering some relief to the struggling economy. The Shehbaz government worked tirelessly to present a challenging budget that, while unpopular among the public, gained favor with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Given Pakistan’s long-standing poor economic conditions, the budget included additional taxes to secure an IMF loan to help pay off the country’s debts.

During this period of apparent stability, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar played a pivotal role in bolstering Pakistan’s foreign relations. His relentless efforts led to an increase in international engagements, with world leaders visiting Pakistan and agreeing to enhance bilateral trade to a record two billion dollars annually. The country seemed poised for a brighter future with these positive developments.

The government’s ability to stabilize the currency and reduce inflation was a testament to its effective economic policies and commitment to improving the country’s financial health.

However, this budding stability was abruptly disrupted by a decision from the Supreme Court, which sent shockwaves throughout the nation. The decision led to the emergence of Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) as the largest political party under the Sunni Ittehad Council, securing 120 seats in parliament. Meanwhile, the ruling party, PML-N, maintained 180 seats, relying on the support of allied parties like the People’s Party and MQM to sustain the government. Consequently, the PML-N found itself needing to collaborate closely with these allies for major decisions, further complicating the political landscape. This sudden shift in the political dynamics threatened to unravel the hard-won economic gains and introduce a new wave of uncertainty.

The newfound political strength of Tehreek-e-Insaaf introduced a new wave of political instability. The party, under its founder’s leadership, vowed to obstruct parliamentary proceedings and hinder the government’s efforts to achieve political and economic stability. This looming threat of political unrest posed significant challenges for Pakistan’s fragile economy. The PTI’s strategy seemed focused on creating an environment of disruption, making it difficult for the government to implement its policies and maintain the economic stability it had worked so hard to achieve.

During this political chaos, the Pakistan Army and the government initiated an operation to combat the resurgence of terrorism. Terrorists, previously expelled by the Pakistan Army at the cost of thousands of soldiers’ lives, had returned from Afghanistan and resumed their activities, including terrorism and extortion across the country. These acts, often perceived as tools of foreign powers, targeted citizens of friendly nations like China and Japan, aiming to disrupt even the minimal investment flowing into Pakistan. In response to the escalating threat, friendly countries warned Pakistan of potential investment withdrawal if terrorism persisted.

The re-emergence of terrorism posed a significant threat not only to national security but also to the economic recovery efforts that were underway.

In light of the grave situation, the Pakistan Army and government launched Operation to eradicate terrorism. However, Tehreek-e-Insaaf openly opposed the operation, attempting to incite internal instability. The opposition’s efforts to undermine the operation hinted at potential unseen forces influencing the situation. The ensuing political and economic instability threatened to burden the Pakistani people further, with inflation likely to rise as a consequence. The opposition’s stance against the anti-terrorism operation was seen as an attempt to leverage the security situation for political gains, further exacerbating the instability.

The current scenario reflects a tug-of-war between two major power circles within Pakistan: one striving for stability and the other fomenting instability. The people of Pakistan, already weary from enduring inflation and economic hardship, now face additional uncertainty. There is an urgent need for unity and collaboration among the powerful factions to prioritize the country’s economic stability and alleviate the burdens on its citizens.

The ongoing political conflict has significant implications for the nation’s future, as the continuous instability hampers efforts to attract foreign investment and improve the overall economic situation.

Lastly, Pakistan stands at a critical juncture where political and economic stability hangs in the balance. The path forward requires concerted efforts from all political entities to work together for the greater good, ensuring a stable and prosperous future for the nation. The people’s plea is clear: they can no longer bear the burden of instability and inflation, and it is time for the country’s leaders to act with responsibility and foresight. The challenges are immense, but with a unified approach and a focus on long-term stability, Pakistan can overcome these obstacles and pave the way for a brighter future for all its citizens.

US Reaffirms Commitment to Pakistan’s Anti-Terror Efforts

By
Arshad Mehmood
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TTP

[Islamabad] The United States acknowledges that terrorism has caused tremendous suffering for the people of Pakistan.

During a press briefing at the US State Department in Washington on Monday, spokesperson Matthew Miller was asked whether the US supports Pakistan’s actions against terrorist groups like the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Afghanistan.

“Pakistan and the US share a mutual interest in addressing threats to regional security, we collaborate with various Pakistani civilian entities and maintain regular communication with the Government of Pakistan to explore opportunities for enhancing regional security and building capacity, particularly in counter-terrorism efforts,” he stated, highlighting “the importance of annual high-level dialogues”.

The United States acknowledges the significant impact of terrorism on Pakistan and supports Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts. This collaboration involves regular communication and high-level dialogues between US and Pakistani officials to enhance regional security.

Earlier, Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, said in an interview that “Pakistan will continue to conduct operations against targets in Afghanistan as part of a new military campaign aimed at combating terrorism”.

Asif clarified that “the airstrikes are directed at groups that Pakistan alleges have been attacking its security forces and civilians.”

Pakistan has continuously accused the Taliban of providing sanctuary to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Afghanistan. However, the Taliban maintains that the TTP issue is Pakistan’s internal matter and does not fall under their purview.

Meanwhile, according to the latest report released by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) Islamabad, during the second quarter of 2024, at least 380 people, including civilians and security personnel, were killed and 220 injured in 240 terrorist incidents and operations in Pakistan.

The report highlighted that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces were the primary centers of these violent incidents, accounting for about 92 percent of deaths and 87 percent of terrorist acts during this period.

The report also noted a decrease in violence and death rates across the country in the second quarter, with overall violence dropping by 12 percent. There were 380 deaths recorded in the second quarter compared to 432 in the first quarter. Police and army personnel were often the targets of terrorist attacks. Among the police casualties, two DSPs and 31 other policemen lost their lives.

According to the report, during the second quarter of this year, approximately 65 soldiers, including an army captain, were killed. Additionally, a former brigadier was also killed in an attack by unknown assailants.

Released concurrently with Pakistan’s ‘Resolve for Stability’ military operation, this study aims to reinforce Pakistan’s counterterrorism endeavors in reaction to a surge in militant activity.

Experts say that militant organizations continue to operate in the tribal areas adjacent to Afghanistan.

Even if the new counterterrorism operation manages to neutralize the banned Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan’s threat, Pakistan will continue to grapple with significant security challenges from multiple fronts.

Baloch separatist groups, primarily based in Iran, also pose a persistent threat due to their longstanding grievances and sporadic attacks on Pakistani security forces and infrastructure in Balochistan.

These groups often benefit from external support and sanctuary across the border, complicating Pakistan’s efforts to contain their activities.

Pakistan has initiated a new military campaign, “Resolve for Stability,” targeting terrorist groups, particularly the TTP, operating from Afghanistan. This move is partly driven by concerns from Beijing regarding the safety of Chinese nationals working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects.

Additionally, the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K), with its network entrenched in Afghanistan and extending into Central Asia, remains a formidable adversary.

IS-K has demonstrated its ability to carry out deadly attacks targeting civilians and security forces alike, contributing to instability in the region.

Despite setbacks in Afghanistan, the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK) retains a presence and continues to exploit local grievances and ethnic tensions to further its extremist agenda, posing a significant threat to regional stability.

Therefore, while addressing the TTP threat is crucial, Pakistan’s security landscape remains complex and multifaceted, requiring sustained efforts to mitigate the influence and operations of Baloch separatist groups and IS-K across its borders.

Pakistan has recently launched a renewed military operation named “Resolve for Stability” aimed at curbing escalating violence and terrorist attacks, primarily focusing on groups operating within Pakistan.

Islamabad-based sources claim that the new operation was launched under pressure from Beijing.

This pressure stems from Beijing’s concerns about the safety of its 29,000 citizens in Pakistan, including 2,500 individuals working on projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a crucial part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Attacks on Chinese workers in Pakistan have highlighted significant security risks.

These incidents, including targeted killings and bombings, reflect challenges related to economic projects and concerns over Chinese influence.

In March 2024, five Chinese engineers were killed when a suicide bomber targeted a convoy of Chinese engineers working on a hydropower project in northwest Pakistan.

Islamabad claimed that the attack was orchestrated from neighboring Afghanistan and that the suicide bomber was an Afghan national.

Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been escalating since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021. Pakistan claims that a faction of the Taliban, specifically the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has safe havens in Afghanistan.

Relations between both neighboring countries further escalated in March 2024, when Pakistan conducted airstrikes on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) targets in Afghanistan.

This action followed attacks in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, where seven Pakistani soldiers were killed. The strikes targeted several suspected TTP hideouts.

Pakistan’s security challenges are multifaceted, with threats from various militant groups, including the TTP, Baloch separatist groups, and the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K). Despite efforts to neutralize these threats, the security situation remains complicated due to external support and cross-border sanctuaries.

Despite assurances from the Taliban administration in Kabul that they would not permit the TTP or any militant group to launch attacks from Afghan territory against Pakistan or any other country, the TTP has continued to carry out multiple attacks inside Pakistan in recent years.

These incidents have strained relations between Islamabad and the Afghan Taliban government.

In a recent media talk, Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch addressed the ongoing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

She stated that “Afghanistan has given assurances that its soil will not be used against any country, including Pakistan”.

Baloch emphasized the importance of Afghanistan acting upon these assurances, stressing that Afghan territory should not be utilized for terrorist activities targeting any country, including Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Role in The Emerging Global Order

By
Info Desk
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Stratheia

Burg e Nullah Flash Flood Frenzy: Emergency Unpreparedness

By
Naveed Akhtar
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Climate impact on Gilgit-Baltistan

Gilgit-Baltistan has been experiencing catastrophic flash floods, a rise in temperature, sudden shifts in weather patterns, and irregular patterns of snowfall and rainfall. Traditionally, Gilgit-Baltistan witnessed its snowfall from December to January. However, this year, the usually snow-capped mountains were left barren, sparking concern for locals, particularly those living downstream of the Indus River. Gilgit-Baltistan is a major water catchment for the Indus River Basin (IRB), on which most of Pakistan depends for hydroelectricity and irrigation.

Gilgit-Baltistan is a politically sensitive location because of its special territorial status, and it is administered directly by the government of Pakistan. Pakistan’s reliance on Gilgit-Baltistan for its 70% agriculture and 40% hydropower also raises concerns for Pakistan. It could spark potential risks for Pakistan’s already crumbling agriculture sector and power shortage. Flash floods are sudden and intense floods characterised by the rapid rise of lake water levels and dam or levee failure, and often capture people unprepared. High mountains in the north of Pakistan host more than 3,044 glacier lakes, out of which 33 glacier lakes are vulnerable in the hearts of the Himalayas, Karakoram, and the Hindu Kush.

High mountains in the north of Pakistan host more than 3,044 glacier lakes, out of which 33 glacier lakes are vulnerable in the hearts of the Himalayas, Karakoram, and the Hindu Kush.

Pakistan’s National Climate Change Policy 2021 states that flooding and increasingly erratic weather behaviour are the few basic symptoms of climate change. Gilgit-Baltistan has grievances over its political identity, growing insecurity in the environment on pivotal roads like Karakoram highways, and a share of Gilgit-Baltistan in the national economy and political fora. The climate change discourse and potential risk are now at the top of the list of grievances which is a matter of life and death for Gilgit-Baltistan because of the region’s topography, Gilgit-Baltistan is a land of towering peaks, glaciers, valleys, and rivers, which is prone to natural calamities.

Climate change governance and education in Gilgit-Baltistan have never been known subjects at policy or community levels. An abruptly changing climate challenges governance models and structures. All countries, especially developed countries, have been threatening the environment and the overall well-being of humans in the age of emerging technological warfare and revolutions. The irresponsible technological and economic model has polluted our environment and harmed human food, water, and health security. According to a UNDP report, about 7 million people in Gilgit-Baltistan and KPK are threatened.

Glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) has become a frequent event that occurs across the length and breadth of Gilgit-Baltistan. Flash floods in Burge Nullah are yet another sequence in the series of flash floods due to Climate change. The event captures unprepared communities that are already undergoing poverty, lack of administrative and governmental support, and lack of awareness. Flash floods in Burge Nullah have taught us yet another lesson about the detrimental effect of flash floods on vital human infrastructures including homes, schools, health units, and agricultural lands.

According to a UNDP report, about 7 million people in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) are threatened by the adverse effects of climate change, including increased frequency of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), flash floods, and other natural disasters.

The dilemma is that the agriculture sector which employs about 90%, is under severe threats posed by climate change. The zero-look attitude over climate change governance of the government of Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan as a whole is undermining the serious repercussions of climate change that the people of GB are witnessing. Despite of overarching objectives of the Gilgit-Baltistan Adaptation Action Plan 2023 to reduce the vulnerability of people, livelihoods, physical assets, and natural systems to the adverse effects of climate change, strengthen institutional and technical capacities for effective climate change adaptation, the response of government has not been witnessed and exercise on grounds.

The catastrophic flash flood in Burge Nullah portrayed the government’s unpreparedness to respond quickly and mitigate climate change and, at the same time, marked the fact that people were unassisted and deserted. The frequent glacial melting has led to flash floods and river erosions, In the Skardu district the events have drastically affected crop productivity reporting 30% reductions in crop yielding (UNPO). The government’s continuously zero-look policy and attitudes toward climate change adaptations and mitigations are costing greater losses of human lives, livelihoods, and the economy in GB.

Skardu Burge Nullah is close to Skardu City, which has all government machinery and departments, but the government response still came under huge criticism and stirred public patience. The big loss to public assets and belongings, including homes, mosques, crops, and livestock following flash floods, triggers vulnerabilities of Indigenous in case of climate emergency. The flash floods in Burge Nullah are not the beginning but mark a series of calamities destroying infrastructures, In this regard the failure to install modern engineering tools like Early warning systems in such more disaster-prone areas in GB is yet another failure of government and authorities.

The average temperature in Gilgit-Baltistan has increased by 0.44°C per decade from 1980 to 2006, exacerbating the melting of glaciers (UNPO). This underscores the urgent need for effective climate change governance and robust adaptation strategies, which have so far been glaringly absent.

The average temperature in Climate impact on Gilgit-Baltistan has increased by 0.44°C per decade from 1980 to 2006, exacerbating the melting of glaciers​(UNPO) report shows. This is a scorching challenge and test for administrative capabilities and climate change governance on how to adopt strategies and execute those strategies to save people’s lives and belongings in the high mountains of the north of Pakistan. The calamities like flash floods, land sliding, rock sliding and mud flows in downward streams in valleys of GB cause complete disruptions of public and transport mobility across GB and GB’s connectivity to other areas of Pakistan by land cuts off following unprecedented floods, land sliding and mud flows or earthquakes damaging roads.

The flash floods in other districts of GB are threatening local lives and the economy, and the authorities must take necessary and on-ground actions to ensure well beings of the public and their belongings. Another latest flash flood at Tata Pani, the most treacherous portion of Karakoram highway signals the uncontrolled climate change catastrophe.

Pakistan and Russia’s Multilateral Cooperation

By
Dr. Raziq Hussian
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Pak-Russia relations have witnessed a renewed vigor as both nations strive to enhance their bilateral cooperation across various sectors.

Pak-Russia relations have witnessed renewed vigor as both nations strive to enhance their bilateral cooperation across various sectors. This commitment to strengthening ties was prominently displayed during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.

During this lively and pleasant encounter, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif extended an invitation to President Putin to visit Pakistan, emphasizing that no geopolitical changes could affect the strong relationship between the two countries. This statement underscores the status and importance of the current relations between Pakistan and Russia. Both leaders demonstrated a clear intent to fortify their partnership, which has grown steadily over the years despite various global challenges.

In their extensive discussions, the two leaders agreed to bolster relations in diverse fields, particularly focusing on trade and energy. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed Pakistan’s desire to increase oil supplies from Russia, highlighting the need to improve business relations with Moscow. “We want to increase oil supply from Russia and enhance our business ties in the future,” said Sharif.

This move is strategic for Pakistan, aiming to diversify its energy sources and reduce dependence on traditional suppliers. Increased oil imports from Russia could help stabilize Pakistan’s energy market, which is critical for its economic growth.

President Putin reciprocated this sentiment, acknowledging the excellent relations between the two countries and expressing readiness to expand cooperation in energy and agriculture. He also emphasized the importance of collaboration in food security, a critical area for both nations. “We can expand our cooperation in the fields of energy, agriculture, and food security,” Putin remarked. Russia’s vast agricultural sector and expertise in food security could greatly benefit Pakistan, especially in improving agricultural productivity and food supply chains.

The meeting was not just about bilateral relations but also about exploring multilateral cooperation. Prime Minister Sharif reiterated his commitment to working with Russia to further expand and strengthen the growing multilateral cooperation between the two countries. This includes areas of mutual benefit such as trade, energy, defense, and security. He noted, “Pakistan and Russia have been friendly countries for a long time, and their positive relations will have to be strengthened in the future.” The emphasis on defense and security cooperation signals a significant shift, as both countries look to collaborate on regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts.

Sharif also expressed a keen interest in promoting trade with Russia under the barter system, which he believes could be beneficial for Pakistan and help address various national issues. “We can benefit from your experiences and develop mutual trade, which is currently around one billion dollars,” he added. The barter system could provide a viable alternative to traditional trade, especially in circumventing financial constraints and enhancing direct exchange of goods.

Reflecting on their previous meeting at the Samarkand SCO Summit two years ago, President Putin highlighted the improvement in bilateral relations thanks to trade ties between the two countries. He indicated a willingness to increase cooperation in the fields of energy, agriculture, and food security. This continued engagement at high-level meetings indicates a sustained effort by both nations to solidify their partnership.

The SCO Summit provided a significant platform for these discussions, with the meeting between Shehbaz Sharif and Vladimir Putin offering an opportunity to stabilize and enhance Pak-Russia relations further.

The summit also facilitated trilateral talks between Pakistan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, where the leaders discussed the potential for establishing a tripartite institutional mechanism in trade, economic cooperation, and investment. Such a mechanism could significantly boost regional cooperation, creating new opportunities for trade and investment. This trilateral cooperation, involving key regional players, underscores the broader strategic vision of Pakistan in fostering regional alliances and economic integration.

The discussions at the SCO Summit and the ensuing bilateral and trilateral meetings underscored the importance of regional stability and development. The Pakistan-Tajikistan joint statement issued at the end of Shehbaz Sharif’s official visit to Dushanbe highlighted the need for a peaceful, prosperous, and stable Afghanistan for regional development. Both nations renewed their determination to combat organized crimes, including terrorism, which is vital for regional stability.

A stable Afghanistan is crucial for the security and economic prosperity of the entire region, and Pakistan’s proactive diplomacy in this regard reflects its strategic priorities.

The recent engagements at the SCO Summit reflect a concerted effort by Pakistan and Russia to deepen their bilateral relations amidst evolving geopolitical landscapes. The commitment to enhancing cooperation in trade, energy, agriculture, and food security signifies a promising future for Pak-Russia relations. As global and regional peace efforts continue, these strengthened ties are expected to contribute to prosperity and stability in the region. By fostering closer economic and strategic partnerships, both nations are positioning themselves to better navigate the complexities of international politics and economics.

Lastly, the Pak-Russia relationship stands as a testament to the potential of strategic partnerships in overcoming geopolitical challenges. The mutual commitment to expanding cooperation in key sectors and the emphasis on regional stability highlight the forward-looking approach of both nations. As Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and President Vladimir Putin continue to build on this robust foundation, the future of Pak-Russia relations looks increasingly promising, with significant benefits for both countries and the broader region.

Labor’s Historic Victory in Britain

By
Prof. Dr. Muhammad Munir
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In a groundbreaking and historic victory, the opposition Labor Party has emerged triumphant in the British general election, ending the Conservative or Tory party's decade-and-a-half-long reign.

In a groundbreaking and historic victory, the opposition Labor Party has emerged triumphant in the British general election, ending the Conservative or Tory party’s decade-and-a-half-long reign. The election results have reshaped the political landscape of the United Kingdom, with the Labor Party securing a commanding 412 seats out of the 650 available in the British House of Commons, while the Tories managed to win only 121 seats. The remaining seats were claimed by smaller parties, marking a significant shift in the nation’s political dynamics.

Several critical issues influenced the election, including rising inflation, a struggling health system, and the skyrocketing rent of residential and commercial properties. However, a significant factor in the Conservative Party’s defeat was the stance of more than 40 million Muslim voters. These voters, angered by the Tory government’s support for Israel amidst the ongoing conflict and perceived merciless genocide of Palestinians, turned their support towards the Labor Party. Among these voters, a large number of Pakistanis were included, and many of their candidates have been elected as members of Parliament from various constituencies. This shift underscores the importance of addressing the concerns of minority communities within the electorate.

Following the election results, Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced his resignation, paving the way for Labor Party leader Keir Starmer to become the new Prime Minister. This change marks a significant shift in the British political scene, with the Labor Party returning to power after a substantial period.

Keir Starmer’s leadership is expected to bring new perspectives and policies that address the pressing issues faced by the British populace.

One noteworthy aspect of this election is the response of the losing party. In a rare display of political maturity, the Conservative Party has openly accepted its defeat, acknowledging that it failed to meet the expectations of the British people. Instead of raising alarms about poll rigging, the Tories admitted that their policies, particularly their foreign policy, were out of touch with voter sentiment. The voters’ discontent with the party’s stance on Gaza and its handling of Brexit, which led to the UK’s separation from the European Union, played a crucial role in the Conservative Party’s downfall.

The election outcome has profound implications not only for domestic policies but also for international relations. The Labor Party’s victory signals a potential shift in the UK’s foreign policy stance. Under Keir Starmer’s leadership, the UK is likely to adopt a more balanced and perhaps more critical approach towards international conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. The Labor Party’s historical stance on human rights and social justice suggests that the new government may advocate for more equitable solutions and play a more active role in international peacekeeping efforts.

Moreover, the Labor Party’s return to power could lead to a reevaluation of the UK’s relationship with the European Union. While Brexit is a settled matter, the manner in which the UK interacts with the EU could change. Labor has historically been more pro-European compared to the Tories, and this might lead to policies that seek closer cooperation with European nations on trade, security, and environmental issues.

This could improve the strained relationships caused by the Brexit process and foster a more collaborative atmosphere in addressing shared challenges.

Another significant aspect of this victory is the potential for improved relations with Commonwealth countries, particularly those with substantial Muslim populations. The Labor Party’s more inclusive approach and the election of numerous candidates from Pakistani and other minority backgrounds could pave the way for stronger ties with countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh. These relationships could be vital in addressing global issues such as climate change, terrorism, and economic development.

The Labor Party’s historic win also brings to light the importance of addressing domestic issues that have international repercussions. The UK’s health system, economic stability, and housing market are not just local concerns but also influence the country’s standing on the global stage.

A healthier, more stable, and equitable Britain can contribute more effectively to international collaborations and fulfill its obligations as a leading nation in the global community.

This victory is considered the Labor Party’s most significant and historic win since Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997. The election has not only redefined political alignments but also highlighted the importance of addressing key domestic and foreign policy issues in tune with the electorate’s expectations. The victory is a clear mandate from the British people for change and a more inclusive, forward-thinking approach to governance.

As Keir Starmer prepares to take office as the new Prime Minister, the Labor Party faces the challenge of addressing the pressing issues that dominated the election campaign. The party’s historic victory signifies a new era in British politics, driven by a desire for change and the need to respond to the evolving concerns of the British populace. It also marks a turning point in international relations, with the potential for the UK to adopt a more balanced and inclusive approach to global issues, fostering stronger ties with both traditional allies and emerging partners on the world stage. This victory is not just a win for Labor, but a hopeful sign for a more engaged and responsible Britain in the global community.

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