The dynamics of Ukraine–Russia relations and conflict have enveloped over the years. Follow the timeline to know more: Stratheia
The GCC States and Pakistan: Mitigating the Climate Challenges
Climate Change is a global issue and has become a national security concern of the states. The temperature of the earth is increasing day by day due to global warming, posing serious threats to life on earth. All the global actors are focused on making the rise in the temperature limited to 1.5 degrees as per the pre-industrialization temperature and making cooperation to mitigate the issue and save the humanity and world from a disaster. Pakistan is one of the 10 most vulnerable countries to climate change despite the fact that it contributes only 0.8% of the overall Carbon emission. But still Lahore and Karachi, the two megacities, are the most polluted cities in the world. In short, both the aforementioned regions are vulnerable to this climatic change, and cooperation to face the challenge and mitigation is crucial.
Pakistan is one of the 10 most vulnerable countries to climate change despite the fact that it contributes only 0.8% of the overall Carbon emission.
One of the major consequences of climate change that the Gulf region is likely to face is food security. GCC countries are dependent on food imports as they import almost 90% of their food from other countries, largely from the west. On the other hand, Pakistan is an agricultural country that is facing problems in this area due to climate change i.e. soil erosion, drastic rains, floods, etc. and it has largely affected the production rate and quality as well. Pakistan has the capacity to fulfill the needs and demands of the GCC countries and needs investment to enhance productivity. According to Strengthens Weaknesses Opportunities Threats (SWOT) analysis, food is an area where both Pakistan and Gulf Cooperation Council states can cooperate with each other to solve the problem. In this regard, Kuwait, one of the GCC countries, has shown interest in investing in the field of agriculture and technological advancement in this area.
Kuwait is planning to invest 750 million dollars in this area and that is going to be one of the largest proposed investments in Pakistan in the recent past.
Similarly Pakistan is very famous for its Billion Tree Tsunami project under clean and green Pakistan to plant 10 Billion trees in the country and 40 Billion trees further to enhance environmental stability and reduce the carbon concentration in the atmosphere as much as possible. Praising the initiative, the Crown Prince of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad bin Salman MBS showed interest in this project and wanted Pakistan to cooperate with KSA. Both states are focused on cooperation for green projects to reduce carbon emissions and ensure a healthy environment. In this regard, Pakistan offered support with knowledge and experience. A technique called “Miyawaki Forest Technique” that requires less water for the plants/trees to grow has been introduced to KSA which is suitable according to the environment of that region. Along with cooperation on green areas, both states can also cooperate on brown areas i.e. pollution control and waste management techniques, direly required for Pakistan.
Moreover, Pakistan can grow plants and send them to Saudi Arabia for plantation under the green middle east project. Another important factor, renewable energy sources, is the key factor in the war against Climate Change. Renewable energy sources are considered to be safe, cheap, and environment-friendly sources i.e., solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, and electric power as well. The world is making a shift towards renewable energy sources. Luckily Pakistan has the capacity to generate energy from solar and wind and can fulfill the needs at less cost. UAE, one of the GCC states, is working on renewable energy sources, even the International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA has set up an office in Abu Dhabi, UAE. Pakistan needs investment and cooperation in this area to reduce non-renewable energy consumption and generate more from wind and solar. Pakistan and UAE have signed an MOU in order to enhance the field of climate mitigation and environmental protection in line with the national legislation of both states. Further, both states can work together in the fields of health, energy, ecosystem restoration, tourism i.e. Eco-tourism and dessert tourism, information exchange, and joint research on climate issues.
The world is making a shift towards renewable energy sources. Luckily Pakistan has the capacity to generate energy from solar and wind and can fulfill the needs at less cost.
It is quite clear from the above discussion that climate change has posed serious threats to the states. The GCC states and Pakistan cooperation would ensure regional climate stability and mitigate challenges emanating from climate change. The GCC states and Pakistan are already enjoying multifaceted cooperation in the fields of economy, diplomacy, and security. Hence, climate cooperation between GCC and Pakistan will be another feather in their cap.
Global Dynamics and Policy Options for Pakistan
While most of the policy elite in Pakistan is busy firefighting the current political meltdown, the ongoing economic crisis, and a surge in acts of terrorism, a storm is brewing around the neighborhood and beyond. It is extremely important for policymakers to keep these issues in mind so that a crisis can be averted in near future.
On the eastern flank, India in its latest act of defying international law has issued a legal notice about the revocation of the Indus Water Treaty. The Indus Water Treaty was brokered by World Bank between Pakistan and India and is currently the longest-standing agreement between the two countries. The current reaction by our experts is no less than a joke and expresses the seriousness of the country as a whole.
The lack of understanding of international law on water issues is just mind-boggling.
The second crisis that is brewing is two-pronged and again taking place in India. India will host SCO and G20 summit this year. The Indian media has been blowing the trumpet loud and across the globe stating that they have invited Pakistan. As per rule, Pakistan being a member of SCO has to be invited and India is not extending any favor. Also, India is planning to host some G20 events in IIOJK which again is an Indian attempt to ridicule UN conventions. Apart from a few experts, no one in the policy circles is raising these points. Pakistan must come down strong on this Indian propaganda.
Towards the western neighborhood, it seems that the Taliban are moving close to every other country except Pakistan. The body language of our defense minister and other members of the delegation is not sending any positive signals.
Pakistan cannot afford a hot border with Afghanistan and ties with the Taliban should be amended for the safety and security of Pakistan.
On the global front, China is being arm twisted by the US and some unprecedented actions are being taken by the Americans. Some analysts say that it is the beginning of a new cold war and some paint it as a rise in temperatures by Americans. The Chinese are also cold-shouldering Pakistan. As of now, they have closed down the councilor services and there is no Ambassador posted in Islamabad by China. Whatever the case may be, when push comes to shove, Pakistan needs to have some strong and clear policy options Vis a Vis China and the USA for this fast-approaching scenario.
On the European front, it seems that the Ukrainian-Russian war is there for the long haul. There have been so many stories about the American manipulation of the war and recently Seymour Hersh did an expose on how they blew up the Nord Stream. A recent article by New York Times has also highlighted how the westerners are scrambling to procure the soviet armory for Ukraine. Amidst this crisis, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Imran Khan has written a letter to President Arif Alvi which accuses the former Chief of the Army Staff of deviating from the official stance on the conflict. This can actually blow up in the face of the current government and it needs to act strong and build a strong case. Just abstaining from UN polls will not suffice for the western partners. Pakistan actually needs to have a strong and clear strategy on the issue.
In the Middle East, it seems that Pakistan has already lost its reputation. The economic crisis has completely shattered the Pakistani image among Arab royals. A new diplomatic engagement is a need of time. The Arabs are fond of hunting and Pakistan offers wonderful opportunities. Pakistan needs to engage 2nd and 3rd-tier royalty and invite them for a private tour. Through these tours, Pakistan can build its goodwill and at a later stage ask the members of the royal family to invest in Pakistan.
Everything mentioned above can be countered and is doable without any major hassle. However, this requires a lot of policy planning and deep strategic thinking. It seems that at the moment, policymakers are not thinking along these lines or maybe they just don’t have the time to address these challenges due to the ongoing crisis. Either way, while the resilient nation is trying its level best to fight the internal challenges, it should not forget about the growing external challenges. If this is not done on a priority basis, Pakistan will be caught by surprise and some haphazard decision-making will take place. Pakistan has already suffered a lot on the diplomatic front and it cannot afford any more disasters.
Pakistan: A Responsible Nuclear State
Many states have used nuclear energy worldwide to overcome energy challenges, and Pakistan’s peaceful nuclear program is a great success. Realizing the true potential of nuclear energy, Pakistan developed a comprehensive framework for the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
The Nuclear Program of Pakistan is safe and robust. It has always been a responsible nuclear weapon state and therefore except for the baseless allegations, there has never been a single instance of theft of nuclear material.
Although Pakistan didn’t sign Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty NPT due to its deep security concerns but cooperates and works closely with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). IAEA is an intergovernmental organization that promotes and regulates the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Its mandate is to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health, and prosperity throughout the world. Pakistan signed a safeguard agreement with IAEA in 2005 that allows IAEA to inspect Pakistan’s civilian nuclear facilities and their use for peaceful purposes only. It also covers the export and import of nuclear weapons. Along with this agreement, Pakistan’s internal nuclear security regime is also comprehensive including both legislative and regulatory framework that governs nuclear safety and security. Pakistan National Command Authority is the apex decision-making body in all nuclear-related matters with effective and robust command and control system.
For regulation of nuclear safety and protection of radiation, transport, and waste of nuclear material, Pakistan has developed Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA). The ‘Regulations on Security of Radioactive Sources’ is in line with the IAEA Code of Conduct on nuclear safety and security of radioactive resources and its two supplementary guidance documents. The Strategic Export Control Division (SECDIV) looks upon the export controls to monitor the items that can be used for the development of Nuclear, Chemical, or biological weapons or their delivery systems. Pakistan has strengthened its control on exports of nuclear, biological, and related materials and their delivery systems through the Export Control Act of 2004. The National Control Lists are reviewed periodically as per the changes made by International export control regimes.
Pakistan has successfully implemented the IAEA nuclear security program and contributes to and benefits from the IAEA regarding the security of nuclear material as per its mandate.
The Director General of IAEA Mr. Rafael Mariano Grossi has recently visited Pakistan for a two-day visit and inspected 6 nuclear sites in Pakistan. He acknowledged Pakistan’s technical and engineering capacity for new nuclear power plants including Small Modular Reactors. As Pakistan is the country that suffers most from Climate change and Energy crises, hence nuclear energy is the best option for Pakistan to mitigate climate issues and energy crises. The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog praised Pakistan’s nuclear safety and security along with its technical capacity. He reiterated that “Pakistan has a promising future concerning nuclear energy”.
The DG IAEA comments show that Pakistan has adopted an extremely secure and robust mechanism for its nuclear safety and despite the political instability and economic downfall; Pakistan’s nuclear regime is safe and secure. He even termed Pakistan’s civilian nuclear facilities as “World Class” and Impeccable. Moreover, he acknowledged Pakistan’s nuclear capacity to develop new nuclear plants that will help the state meet its critical energy demands causing a reduction in energy costs and producing clean and environmentally friendly energy.
The initial set-up of such plants requires a strong financial back-up because they are relatively high cost as compared to other set-ups like fossil fuel power plants. But in the long run, nuclear power plants are relatively cheaper to operate and require specific topography to be safe and functional. The DG visit is a success in projecting a positive image of Pakistan in the nuclear community as he has also approved nuclear facilities and extended support for civilian use of nuclear projects. However, financing such projects is still a question and that requires a strong economy.
Hence, Pakistan must focus on restructuring its finances and capital to improve its economic situation which will solve the other problems. Nuclear Technology and its peaceful use are what all the states are seeking to improve their energy needs. Yet, a strong financial backup to support the nuclear program for peaceful use is crucial for long-term sustenance and stability. The majority of issues that Pakistan is facing today are due to the weak economy. Hence, when the state’s finances will be in order, only then nuclear power can be a long-term solution to our health, environmental, and energy problems. With the multiplicity of challenges that states are facing, nuclear energy remains a suitable option to mitigate issues related to health, agriculture, food, and water. Therefore, Pakistan should maximize its cooperation with IAEA to benefit from its technical cooperation program.
Resurgence of TTP and Pak-Afghan Ties
Conflict and instability in Pakistan have once again impacted the politico-economic stability of the country. Pakistan’s internal security has once again been plagued by the resurgence of militancy as the country faced at least 376 terror attacks in 2022, in which 533 people were killed and 832 were injured. 2022 has seen the highest number of militant attacks in Pakistan during the last five years as the terror incidents increased by 28 percent compared with 2021. Owing to the trend, January 2023 has been the deadliest month since July 2018 as the militants carried out 44 terrorist attacks killing 134 people while at least 254 people were injured. Attack on Police lines in Peshawar alone killed more than 100 people; leading our political and military establishment to explore options for dealing with this current wave of militancy.
The Fall of the Ghani regime and the Afghan Taliban’s control over Kabul was rejoiced by many in August 2021; however, tides have turned as relations between the two neighboring states have experienced an all-time low since then. Afghan Taliban seemed to be certain of the fact that Pakistan will recognize their government; however, contrary to their confidence, successive political governments of Pakistan refrained to recognize the Taliban administration.
Hence, controversy on the issue of border management, the erection of fencing on different places alongside the borderline, disagreements over foreign and economic policy, the rise in terrorism in Pakistan, and Afghanistan’s unhindered support for TTP are a few key issues that have strained the nature of the relationship.
Though Afghan Taliban had agreed in their February 2020 agreement with the United States; that they will not allow their soil to be used against any other state, nevertheless, two decades of conflict in the country has its spill effects and unfortunately, Pakistan is once again bearing the burden of losing precious lives to terrorism in addition to the absence of peace leading to political and socioeconomic uncertainty in the country.
Currently, the internal security of Pakistan and different factions of TTP attacking the security forces of Pakistan as well as the general public has evolved as a major issue of concern for political and security establishment. The prospect of handling TTP through dialogue and negotiations was tried by the Imran Khan government, yet it miserably failed. Extortion has always been TTP’s major source of funding and during the last year, there have been several reported cases of influential people of KP receiving threats for money.
Afghan Taliban are believed to be supporting TTP by providing them with safe havens as well as material and moral support to create instability in Pakistan. The recent visit to Kabul by Pakistan’s high-level delegation, which included Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and DG ISI Lt. General Nadeem Anjum, centered on counterterrorism with Afghanistan’s Acting Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Minister of Defense Mullah Yaqoob speaks volumes about Pakistan’s concerns regarding Afghan soil being used against Pakistan. Though these discussions between the leadership of the two sides are expected to pacify issues of the conflict; yet, Pakistan cannot expect the Afghan government would immediately stop supporting the TTP, particularly when there is an ideological affinity between the two groups as well. It has also been unofficially reported that Afghan Taliban have agreed to disarm and relocate TTP cadres from the bordering areas to other cities; however, the cost of this rehabilitation will have to be borne by Pakistan. Though supporting the Afghan Taliban at this time appears problematic in light of our economic obligations and international perception of backing the Taliban regime, dealing with the problem of TTP is essential, and Pakistan may need to keep its viable choices open.
After losing over 80,000 lives in the war on terror, Pakistan had hardly regained its long-overdue peace in the country. Economic activity was gradually uplifting and the country was slowly paving the path of progress and economic development. TTP’s resurgence and its widescale attacks in the country have once again brought the lead into thinking to launch another grand military operation to fight militancy. However, political instability over the last nine months has brought the country to the verge of economic default. Inflation is on the rise and international financial institutions are hardly willing to help the PML (N) leadership in a time of crisis. Hence, financing another major military option currently may not be an option, especially when IMF has asked the government to reduce its spending.
TTP’s resurgence and its widescale attacks in the country have once again brought the lead into thinking to launch another grand military operation to fight militancy.
Since military operation against TTP seems to be out of the question immediately, Pakistan must redeem its terms of engagement with the Afghan Taliban and convince them to halt their support for TTP. Increasing economic interdependence between the two states and facilitating Afghan citizens in Pakistan seems to be the only forward for regaining the trust of Afghan leadership. Though terrorism necessitates enhanced security; coping with the existing challenges is only possible through intelligence sharing and collaborating with the Afghan authorities on defense and security.
However, if the Afghan Taliban continue supporting TTP and terrorism continues to rise; Pakistan will have no choice left, but to manage its economic obligations and initiate a wide-scale operation against TTP in particular and other militant groups in general. Afghanistan has to be given a deep sense of realization that neighbors cannot be changed.
Climate Change: An Emerging Battlefield
Every year, many climate change disasters are risking the lives and livelihoods of billions of people around the world. The year 2022 also witnessed many climate-led catastrophes like floods in Pakistan, China & South Africa, droughts in Europe & China, hurricanes in Canada & Caribbean, and heatwaves in Europe & Asia. Such climate change disasters once again alarmed the world to protect our planet before it’s too late. The annual climate change conference (COP-27) was held in Egypt in November 2022, reiterating that world leaders fulfill their commitments. One positive outcome of COP-27 is the consensus to establish the ‘Loss and Damage Fund’ by the next climate change annual conference.
The Loss and Damage Fund is a mechanism to financially compensate underdeveloped/ developing countries who are bearing the costs of climate change disasters as a result of the unsustainable development process of rich nations.
It has been almost three months since the announcement to establish the Loss and Damage Fund has been made. There are several challenges to fully operationalizing this fund to support poor countries facing the brunt of climate change disasters.
First of all, the process to complete procedural matters for the full functioning of the Loss and Damage fund is being delayed. Some deadlines have already been missed by the committees responsible to give the final shape to the proposal related to designing the mechanism of financial support to be presented at COP-28. Such delays raise questions about the sincere efforts of rich nations to make the Loss and Damage Fund into reality.
Secondly, self-interest and lack of trust among rich nations are causes of failure to fulfilling many commitments made before. The idea to collect 100 billion for Green Climate Fund annually to support projects on mitigation and adaptation fell short of achieving its goals. Similarly, many countries mentioned ambitious targets to phase out fossil fuels and mitigate carbon emissions in their National Determined Contributions (NDC) but in reality, they are not taking practical steps to achieve those targets. According to United Nations Environment Programme Emission Gap Report 2022 “updated national pledges since COP26 – held in 2021 in Glasgow, UK – make a negligible difference to predicted 2030 emissions and that we are far from the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. In such a scenario, where previous goals and commitments to tackle climate change on an emergency basis are undermined, how can these rich nations can be trusted to provide financial support to operationalize the Loss and Damage Fund’.
Moreover, developing a consensus on the mechanism of financial support will be another challenge. Several questions need to be discussed and pondered while developing the final proposal of the Loss & Damage Fund to be presented at COP-28. What will be the criteria to fix the number of funds to be collected in this fund? One mechanism can be to collect funds annually equally gathered from rich nations. If such a criterion is finalized, then rich nations with fewer carbon emissions can raise hue and cry. The second option is to collect funds from a developed nation directly proportional to the amount of carbon emission of that particular nation. This option can also be deliberated while finalizing the draft of the proposal.
If the consensus is developed on this mechanism, then the next step will be to fix the exact amount to be donated against a mutually agreed measuring scale of carbon emission. Another issue will be to allow or forbid any nation to directly invest in green projects of the country affected by climate disaster rather than depositing the amount in the Loss and Damage Fund. If more than one developing/developed nations become a victim of climate disaster in a year then which country will be supported on a priority basis? What factors and elements will be taken into account to make such a decision?
One idea can be to prioritize a nation to get funding from the Loss and Damage Fund witnessing a greater magnitude of the climate-led disaster. Other criteria can be to support a nation having more concrete plans to deal with the impacts of disaster.
The second option can also be criticized if elements of empathy and human suffering are ignored just because the suffering nation could not develop solid plans due to lack of capacity or any other reason.
Another question is to decide areas of investment for funding received from the Loss and Damage Fund. The priority areas can only be immediate relief efforts like rescue missions, food, and medicines, or funds can be utilized for long-term plans of resilience and rehabilitation. Then, another area to be discussed is channels of fund transfers. The funds can be allocated to the government of affected underdeveloped/developing nations or other entities like NGOs and International Organizations can also be given funds to utilize in disaster-affected poor countries. Deciding a mechanism of accountability for governments and other entities who are offered these funds is another big challenge to ensure the trust of donors in the Fund before it is transformed into a reality. Nations receiving funds must submit comprehensive plans of transparency and accountability for the effective utilization of these funds.
Loss & Damage Fund is a dire need of underdeveloped/developing nations that are directly impacted by the negative impacts of climate change despite their minimum contribution to global carbon emissions. Several questions are required to be discussed to develop consensus. The procedural delays and challenges ahead are putting a question mark on the time working and activation of the Loss and Damage Fund.
Global Security Initiative: An Alternate Security paradigm
An ancient Chinese philosopher observed that, ‘all living things may grow side by side without harming one another, and different roads may run in parallel without interfering with one another. Only when all countries pursue the cause of common good, live in harmony and engage in cooperation for mutual benefit will there be sustained prosperity and guaranteed security.” President Xi said in his work report to the 20th National Congress. It is “in this spirit,” according to President Xi, that China has launched the Global Security Initiative (GSI).
On the heels of Global Development Initiative (GDI) launched in 2021, China launched the Global Security Initiative (GDI) in April 2022. This initiative was first announced by President Xi Jinping during his keynote speech at the BOAO Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2022. Xi described the GDI as ‘an alternative model to achieve balanced, coordinated, and inclusive growth while achieving the UN’s 2030 sustainable development agenda. The GSI and GDI can thus be described as duo initiatives, signaling a concretization of existing ideas and practices under a new umbrella consisting of the twin concepts of GDI and GSI.
Chinese President Xi Jinping described the GDI as ‘an alternative model to achieve balanced, coordinated, and inclusive growth while achieving the UN’s 2030 sustainable development agenda.
The launch of the GSI symbolizes a progression in Beijing’s foreign policy taking China beyond economic statecraft. China’s economic diplomacy focusing on development cooperation, accessible finance and win-win cooperation have formed the mainstay of China’s pursuit to boost its influence, particularly in developing countries for a while now. However, Beijing’s foreign policy is now looking toward a different form of diplomatic effort carving a niche for itself in the global security arena and is emerging as a serious contender to the West-led Security structures. The difference between the Chinese and the Western approach to development, security and international engagement has led to increasingly hostile contestation from the West questioning the ability of China and its development and security models to guarantee future global development and peace.
The Global Security Initiative (GSI) remained a vague geo-strategic idea that presented an alternative to the existing geopolitical order without any concrete details and proposals since its launch. Dong Chunling, Assistant Research Fellow at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, described the GSI as ‘a Chinese solution to jointly address increasingly complex and serious common global challenges’.
China spoke of the GSI at various groups and platforms to provide genuine alternatives to US-led international institutions. President Xi championed the initiative through the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) summit in June 2022, at which he called upon participating countries to embrace a more equitable form of international order. Then again at the 22nd meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, President Xi underlined the need to ‘expand security cooperation’ between all members and welcomed them ‘to get involved in implementing the Global Security Initiative’. In Africa, China has begun attaching the GSI to existing cooperation agreements, including the China-Africa Cooperation Vision 2035 and the Outlook on Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa. At the first-ever China-Horn of Africa Peace Conference in June, Xue Bing, the Chinese Special Envoy for Horn of Africa Affairs, suggested that China was ready to work with partners through ‘consultation and interaction over interference’ to solve conflict across the region. In the South Pacific, China has linked the initiative to the bilateral security agreement it signed with the Solomon Islands.
GSI would provide a framework of principles for global affairs and diplomacy that could make the world a safer place. The Chinese media described the GSI as “another global public good offered by China” that will contribute “Chinese solutions and wisdom for solving security challenges facing humanity.”
In the context of the GSI, Chinese leaders and diplomats speak of security issues in the broadest sense — not just defense but also food, climate, supply chains, the internet, trade and energy.
While unveiling the concept paper for GSI china stated that “Security is a right for all countries. It is not a prerogative of some, still less should it be decided by any individual country. The GSI intends to serve the interests of all and protect tranquility for all. Its advances need the unity and cooperation of the international community. In implementing the GSI, China advocates the following five principles”:
- First, mutual respect. The purposes and principles of the UN Charter must be observed.
- Second, openness and inclusion. The GSI targets no particular country, and excludes no particular party.
- Third, multilateralism. Bilateral and multilateral security cooperation should be pursued among countries around the world and international and regional organizations in line with the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits..
- Fourth, mutual benefit and win-win. The principle of indivisible security should be followed. One’s own security and the common security of all should be advanced side by side.
- Fifth, a holistic approach. Security governance needs to be advanced in a coordinated manner, and traditional and non-traditional security threats should be tackled in a holistic way. Equal emphasis should be placed on security and development, to eliminate the breeding ground for insecurity and seek fundamental and durable ways for achieving sustainable security.
The GSI and GDI are both broad concepts that will be detailed out through substantive policies and partnerships in the coming years. Just as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) when announced by President Xi in 2013, was a broad concept that gradually crystalized by the receptivity from other countries and has today evolved into a major connectivity project and President Xi’s flagship foreign policy initiative.
The detailed concept paper on GSI issued a few days back by China expounds the core ideas and principles of the GSI, identifies the priorities, platforms and mechanisms of cooperation for safeguarding world peace and defend global security. The concept paper lays out 20 priorities of cooperation and all highly action-oriented.
The GSI has captivated the world attention more as it is a clear indication that that now China feels confident enough in its position on the world stage to roll out its vision for the new world order and for maintaining peace and security.
The GSI represents a formalized approach to securitizing China’s international development objectives and as such will be an essential part of the BRI Initiative in which China has already invested billions not only to boost regional connectivity but has also invested in areas beyond its immediate neighbourhood like Europe, South America and Africa. An enlarged network of security partners will help China to protect its huge investments in BRI and the protection of Chinese nationals abroad.
The Chinese are increasingly concerned by the formation of new security structures particularly in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific by the US, UK and European Union (EU).
China perceives initiatives such as the trilateral technology sharing partnership between Australia, the UK and the US (AUKUS), and security initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), in which the US, Japan, India and Australia participate, as deliberate hostile provocations from the West and an attempt to encircle China and if not halt then at least retard its peaceful rise.
Some of the Western analysts have argued that China believes the GSI would help China to rehabilitate its image in the eyes of nations that have been critical of its policy on Ukraine, and counter the growing ‘China threat’ narrative that is being promoted by the West. Therefore China will pursue a policy that safeguards its own national interests and the GSI can help enhance its image of a superpower that respects the purposes and principles of the UN Char. Chinese also feel that whilst the West is preoccupied with geopolitical concerns in the Euro-Atlantic region and the Ukraine war, a window of opportunity has emerged to get traction for the GSI as an alternate to ensure the stability needed for economic recovery and development.
So far the reaction of the West to GSI is as was predicted that is critical and belletristic raising alarm about the real intentions of China however, Russia has already signaled its approval towards the GSI. The GSI is likely to be generally well received in Africa and Latin America. China has a number of existing security agreements with African nations. African nations are likely to view GSI as an opportunity for better influence in global economics and politics. Countries such as Cameroon, Gabon, Ghana, and Nigeria have been receptive to China’s offers to boost security ties through military training, intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism efforts. Latin American and Caribbean countries may take a little longer to coordinate their involvement with the GSI, but both Nicaragua and Uruguay have expressed early support for the initiative.
In the immediate neighborhood of China, the response of South and Southeast Asia would need to be watched carefully as both these sub-regions have gained tremendous importance in the growing competition and confrontation between China and the US. In South East Asian countries like the Philippines and Vietnam are aligned to the US and suspicious of China’s intentions in the Indian Ocean and Pacific region. They will therefore resist any further integration with China till the territorial disputes are amicably resolved to the satisfaction of all concerned parties. Continuing border disputes make India’s immediate participation difficult although New Delhi has hinted it was prepared to discuss possibilities.
For both China and the US, it is the other that is the cause of insecurity in the world. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken has called China “the most serious long-term challenge to the international order.” China, in turn, argues that it is the U.S. and its allies that are the “destabilizing” force. China is now squarely focused on using the GSI to give impetus to its narrative across the Asia-Pacific region and as far away as Africa and South America. The success of GSI will depend on its acceptability by China’s friends and partners, most of whom view it favourably and believe that GSI is the need of the hour be bring some stability to a world in a state of flux and conflict.
BJP’s Systematic use of Hindutva Ideology in Committing Crimes against Humanity in Kashmir
Indian Occupation of Kashmir entered its 75th year in 2023. The internationally recognized disputed territory was put in 2019, under siege by the Indian government through a unanimous revocation of special status previously granted to Kashmir by article 370 of the Indian Constitution. Since then, Kashmir has become a living hell for its inhabitants. The promises of the Indian government of bringing normalcy to the valley through this change of status fell flat on its face.
Kashmir has become a living hell for its inhabitants after unanimous revocation of special status previously granted to Kashmir by article 370 of the Indian Constitution. The promises of the Indian government of bringing normalcy to the valley through this change of status fell flat on its face.
In the year 2019, Kashmiris faced almost 2000 Stone pelting incidents compared to 1400 instances in 2018 and 2017. India claims that only 400 militants are active in Kashmir Valley, while on the contrary, 900000 military personnel are deployed in the small region of Kashmir. Additionally, according to the statement of Mr. Kishan Rady, 50,000 Hindu temples would be restored in Kashmir. However, prominent Kashmiri Pandit Leader, Sanjay Tiko, states that there are only 4,000 temples in Kashmir. The exaggeratingly false number aptly depicts the underlying intention Modi regime, which is to re-engineer the religious orientation of Kashmir. Not only this, but according to International Independent sources, under the timeframe of 1 year, 7,000 people were arrested. From 2012 to March 2021, there were 518 government-imposed internet shutdowns, the highest number of Internet blocks in the world. In the year 2019, 106 internet impositions were made exactly after the revocation of article 370. This reflects how brutally the Kashmiris are silenced in order to promote convenient lies engineered by the Modi government. The world’s largest democracy has seized the right to freedom of speech through widespread Media Blackouts. The eminent writer of the New York Times, Pankaj Mishra, named her article “Kashmir the world’s most dangerous place” This so-called integral part of India, Kashmir has been the subject of at least three UNSC meetings. The U.S. Congress has also passed two house resolutions condemning Modi’s decision to revoke 370 Article. The unemployment rate is higher than the national average. In the initial Five months of the revocation of 370, the Kashmir economy lost 5.32 billion dollars and more than 100,000 Kashmiris lost their jobs. Additionally, the cross-LOC trade is seized, which was the major source of well-being for the Kashmiri population. The latest report of the World Bank states that the GDP of Kashmir is declined by 16.2 % in 2020 compared to 2019. The International Labour Organization in the year 2020 reported an increase in the unemployment rate by 8.6%.
The Modi regime has no limit to Human rights violations in Kashmir. The pellet guns were brutally used and no medical access was provided to Kashmiris. The most inhumane ways were used as weapons of war, which included chemical weapons, rape, and torture mechanisms. The approach of the Modi regime is multi-layered, which primarily includes changing the demographic structure of Kashmir. While keeping the facts straight, international Law stands against demographic changes which are contrary to the will of the indigenous population. Another approach opted is promoting “Hindi Language” as the official language of Kashmir. Similarly, on 26th October 2020, India passed a bill allowing non-locals to buy land in Kashmir. Adding to it, Kashmir is pinned as the predominantly Hindu populated region. To ensure this, India redefined the political constituencies. In order to gain support at the political level, Modi regime is constructing new political leaders in Kashmir, which will support. BJP’s narrative. Furthermore, India has declared the office of the UN Military Observer mission in Srinagar as illegal.
The pellet guns were brutally used and no medical access was provided to Kashmiris. The most inhumane ways were used as weapons of war, which included chemical weapons, rape, and torture mechanisms.
Apart from this, the political suppression of Kashmiris through systematic use of violence and state machinery by India continues. The condition of Muslim citizens of India since the introduction of discriminatory citizenship laws (CAA), by the BJP government. The National Population Register (NPR) and a proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC), aimed at identifying “illegal migrants,” has led to fears that millions of Indian Muslims are another example of dangerous repercussions of Hindutva ideology taking root in the constitution and policy reform in India. In Indian-occupied Kashmir, extra-judicial killings and prolonged custody by paramilitary forces continue. Asim Sultan is being detained since 2018 without any charges or conviction. Similarly, Khurram Pervaiz Malik, who is a civil rights activist from Kashmir, is held in custody since 2021. These systematic steps to change the demography of the valley by inhabiting Hindus in the regions and constructing temples show how strategically India is approaching the issue.
These acts combined qualify as genocide, which is defined as “the deliberate killing of numerous people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group.” The crimes against humanity are defined by the Rome statute of the International Criminal Court, as Murder, Extermination, Torture, Rape, or Persecution against any identifiable group or collectivity on political, racial, national, ethnic, cultural, religious, or gender as defined in paragraph 3, or other grounds that are universally recognized as impermissible under international law, in connection with any act referred to in this paragraph or any crime within the jurisdiction of the Court, Enforced disappearance of persons. Clearly, several of these have been repeatedly committed by Indian authorities in Occupied Kashmir. The international community has kept its lull in the plight of Kashmiris, but the struggle is unlike any other in the history of this world.
The Uncertain Prospects of China in Afghanistan
Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan more than a year ago, the nation now faces a new terrorist threat that makes China’s commitment to the area riskier and more challenging. The Islamic State (I.S.) has suffered a worldwide decline since being defeated on its territory in 2019, yet it still thrives in Afghanistan. Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), according to a recent U.N. assessment on the danger presented by the organization, has successfully established itself as “the major adversary” to the Taliban. The organization still assaults Afghanistan once a month, but its bombs now have a more significant effect than before. It has carried out many strikes over the previous few months, hurting scores of people, including a suicide bombing at Kabul’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in January that caused more than 50 lives.
In the first months after the takeover, one might discount such assaults and give the Taliban the benefit of the doubt since they were attempting to solidify their hold on power. Yet it is now painfully evident that the Taliban lack the ability to maintain security in locations like Kabul. Taliban’s security measures are failing miserably, as seen by ISKP’s growing ability to launch significant strikes on targets like the Foreign Ministry or the Kabul Longan Hotel in December 2022. This is despite numerous, consistent reports that, over the last year, they have destroyed ISKP hideouts nationwide.
A more worrying trend is that ISKP is now attempting to create a barrier between the Taliban and nations generally supportive of Kabul’s new government. ISKP initiatives to attack diplomatic posts, such as the Russian and Pakistani embassies in September and December 2022, respectively, have been the main examples. China, which has developed a particularly tight relationship with the Taliban administration, is a specific target for ISKP’s aggressive campaign.
With US leave, Taliban may well see China as a possible source of financial investment. By implying Beijing intends to extend its commitment not just economically but also in the area of security, China has sometimes fueled the expectations of the Taliban.
China has been a focus of Islamic State propaganda for a number of years. One of I.S.’s songs, which urged Chinese Muslims to join its ranks, was published in Mandarin in 2015. The United Nations and various media outlets reported last year that the ethnic Uyghur bomber who targeted a Shia mosque in Kunduz in October 2021 was from Xinjiang.
Recently, China has been the focus of ISKP’s internet propaganda. The organization recently identified attacking Chinese, American, and Russian interests as one of its primary goals, along with freeing Uyghurs. The organization assaulted a hotel in Kabul’s center that was popular with Chinese visitors in December 2022, injuring at least five.
It is plausible to conclude that ISKP’s increasing emphasis on its campaign against China resulted from the present Afghanistan’s tolerant climate for jihadists. The setting of permissive security encourages collaboration between disparate organizations, among other things. ISKP has reportedly been aggressively recruiting militants from the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) under the direction of a “Uyghur unit,” according to a U.N. report from last year.
Yet, the organization makes an explicit reference to the probable collaboration between the ISKP and the TIP in its most recent report, a group of which China has always been the wariest (although Beijing conflates the group with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and generally uses that name).
According to UN assessment, the two have been working together to spread propaganda in Uyghur, exchange people and military counsel, plan combined assaults, and buy weapons together. This is especially noteworthy since TIP previously sided with ISKP’s adversary al-Qaida.
The ISKP’s campaign against China may result in a number of outcomes, none of which bode well for Afghanistan. Since the Taliban took control over a year ago, China’s economic influence has not lived up to expectations. An Al Jazeera program that looked at the inflow of Chinese businesspeople into Afghanistan paints a fairly gloomy picture of where things may go. The reality is that despite more kind leaders in Kabul, China will probably continue to be very careful about its commitment to the nation and avoid running the danger of a significant security issue. After the suicide attack on the hotel in Kabul in December 2022, China recommended its people to leave that country as soon as possible.
India’s Disinformation Debunked
The EU Dis InfoLab uncovers its latest investigation into anti-Pakistan-China influence operations by Asian News International (ANI) which continues to push fake narratives against the two countries. The report also follows up on two previous investigations published in 2019 and 2020 and exposed the disinformation and ghost experts, non-existent think tanks, bloggers, and journalists who are regularly quoted by Asian News International (ANI) as a source of their news.
The EU Dis InfoLab uncovers its latest investigation into anti-Pakistan-China influence operations by Asian News International (ANI) which continues to push fake narratives against the two countries.
The latest investigation revealed that ANI had been repeatedly quoting a think tank that was dissolved in 2014, using quotes from a journalist, as well as from several bloggers and supposed geopolitical experts, who do not exist. The report asserts that the reference to the same think tank was quoted about twice a week by ANI. The think tank’s website also falsely mentions real Canadian university professors as participants in a conference that they never attended, quoting false statements by associating them with these academics.
ANI is an Indian news agency that plays a major role in the country’s information network, providing content for many well-established media across India, such as The Print and Business Standard. ANI’s articles are also reproduced on well-known digital portals such as Yahoo News. With this network, ANI is a source of news to millions of Indians as well as a larger global audience.
ANI is an Indian news agency that plays a major role in the country’s information network, providing content for many well-established media across India, such as The Print and Business Standard.
The news agency has been criticized for having served as a propaganda tool for the incumbent central government, distributing materials from a vast network of fake news websites, and misreporting events. At the same time, ANI has been accused of practicing an aggressive model of journalism focused on maximum revenue output, which journalists were easily dispensable. Multiple employees have accused ANI of not having any human resource management system and of ill-treating their ex-employees.
The news agency has been criticized for having served as a propaganda tool for the incumbent central government, distributing materials from a vast network of fake news websites, and misreporting events. At the same time, ANI has been accused of practicing an aggressive model of journalism.
It is worth adding that ANI had previously been accused of reporting the Indian government’s ‘version of the truth’ by the independent magazine The Caravan. Moreover, two previous EU Dis InfoLab investigations have revealed that ANI regularly quoted the non-operational fake media outlets ‘EP Today’ and ‘EU Chronicles’, supposedly specializing in EU affairs that were, in fact, created to push anti-Pakistan-China narratives not only in India but globally damage the reputation of two countries.
EU Dis InfoLab investigations have revealed that ANI regularly quoted the non-operational fake media outlets ‘EP Today’ and ‘EU Chronicles’, supposedly specializing in EU affairs that were, in fact, created to push anti-Pakistan-China narratives not only in India but globally damage the reputation of two countries.
Such irresponsible reporting is a blatant violation of the Charter of Munich 1971 which clearly lay down the rights and duties for responsible journalism. News items that are intentionally fabricated are termed as fake news in the strict sense and fake news is widely considered a substantial security threat, in particular, if it is state-sponsored. Such propaganda techniques can be characterized as part of larger Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s doctrine aimed to instigate hybrid warfare against Pakistan.
Consisting of five wide-ranging elements, hybrid warfare starts with media propaganda and the use of the subject of mass communication for media propaganda. It uses disinformation, fake news, defamation of the government, political leaders, armed forces, judiciary, intervention in foreign electoral systems, and flawed diplomacy. Then comes cyber warfare hacking and manipulation of data. Economic coercion and sabotage, as well as subversive activities, are also a part of the grey hybrid spectrum.
Pakistan has been facing an accelerated hybrid war for the last decade which reached its tipping point in the last four years. All the five elements of hybrid war have been unleashed on Pakistan for the last several years however propaganda tools in form of fake news and disinformation are at the heart of the issue. Hybrid warfare is a battle of information, narratives, perceptions, and postmodern technology, since conventional methods of war have become less relevant after the introduction of nuclear weapons in the sub-continent, India has been using Hybrid Warfare and 5GW tactics to create destabilization in Pakistan.
Subversive activities, are a part of the grey hybrid spectrum. Pakistan has been facing an accelerated hybrid war for the last decade which reached its tipping point in the last four years. All the five elements of hybrid war have been unleashed on Pakistan for the last several years however propaganda tools in form of fake news and disinformation are at the heart of the issue.
To pursue its hegemonic ambitions and strategic interests, India makes use of propaganda, media, proxy wars, and sponsors’ militancy in order to disrupt the sociopolitical and ethno-nationalistic structure of Pakistan. It is high time that Pakistan adopts innovative strategies for mitigating the challenges imposed by the war of narratives. The counter-threat response to hybrid warfare requires the installation of a strategy that encompasses and unites all institutions of the state at a single platform and unites the diverse political parties and religious factions in the state. This response should be capable enough to identify propaganda and dissemination of fake news on media and cyberspace and should be dealt with as an area where a whole-of-nation approach is required to neutralize threats.