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Global Security Initiative: An Alternate Security paradigm

By
Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi
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An ancient Chinese philosopher observed that, ‘all living things may grow side by side without harming one another, and different roads may run in parallel without interfering with one another. Only when all countries pursue the cause of common good, live in harmony and engage in cooperation for mutual benefit will there be sustained prosperity and guaranteed security.”  President Xi said in his work report to the 20th National Congress. It is “in this spirit,” according to President Xi, that China has launched the Global Security Initiative (GSI).

On the heels of Global Development Initiative (GDI) launched in 2021, China launched the Global Security Initiative (GDI) in April 2022. This initiative was first announced by President Xi Jinping during his keynote speech at the BOAO Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2022. Xi described the GDI as ‘an alternative model to achieve balanced, coordinated, and inclusive growth while achieving the UN’s 2030 sustainable development agenda. The GSI and GDI can thus be described as duo initiatives, signaling a concretization of existing ideas and practices under a new umbrella consisting of the twin concepts of GDI and GSI.

Chinese President Xi Jinping described the GDI as ‘an alternative model to achieve balanced, coordinated, and inclusive growth while achieving the UN’s 2030 sustainable development agenda.

The launch of the GSI symbolizes a progression in Beijing’s foreign policy taking China beyond economic statecraft. China’s economic diplomacy focusing on development cooperation, accessible finance and win-win cooperation have formed the mainstay of China’s pursuit to boost its influence, particularly in developing countries for a while now. However, Beijing’s foreign policy is now looking toward a different form of diplomatic effort carving a niche for itself in the global security arena and is emerging as a serious contender to the West-led Security structures. The difference between the Chinese and the Western approach to development, security and international engagement has led to increasingly hostile contestation from the West questioning the ability of China and its development and security models to guarantee future global development and peace.

The Global Security Initiative (GSI) remained a vague geo-strategic idea that presented an alternative to the existing geopolitical order without any concrete details and proposals since its launch.  Dong Chunling, Assistant Research Fellow at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, described the GSI as ‘a Chinese solution to jointly address increasingly complex and serious common global challenges’.

China spoke of the GSI at various groups and platforms to provide genuine alternatives to US-led international institutions. President Xi championed the initiative through the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) summit in June 2022, at which he called upon participating countries to embrace a more equitable form of international order. Then again at the 22nd meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, President Xi underlined the need to ‘expand security cooperation’ between all members and welcomed them ‘to get involved in implementing the Global Security Initiative’. In Africa, China has begun attaching the GSI to existing cooperation agreements, including the China-Africa Cooperation Vision 2035 and the Outlook on Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa. At the first-ever China-Horn of Africa Peace Conference in June, Xue Bing, the Chinese Special Envoy for Horn of Africa Affairs, suggested that China was ready to work with partners through ‘consultation and interaction over interference’ to solve conflict across the region. In the South Pacific, China has linked the initiative to the bilateral security agreement it signed with the Solomon Islands.

GSI would provide a framework of principles for global affairs and diplomacy that could make the world a safer place. The Chinese media described the GSI as “another global public good offered by China” that will contribute “Chinese solutions and wisdom for solving security challenges facing humanity.”

In the context of the GSI, Chinese leaders and diplomats speak of security issues in the broadest sense — not just defense but also food, climate, supply chains, the internet, trade and energy.

While unveiling the concept paper for GSI china stated that “Security is a right for all countries. It is not a prerogative of some, still less should it be decided by any individual country. The GSI intends to serve the interests of all and protect tranquility for all. Its advances need the unity and cooperation of the international community. In implementing the GSI, China advocates the following five principles”:

  • First, mutual respect. The purposes and principles of the UN Charter must be observed.
  • Second, openness and inclusion. The GSI targets no particular country, and excludes no particular party.
  • Third, multilateralism. Bilateral and multilateral security cooperation should be pursued among countries around the world and international and regional organizations in line with the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits..
  • Fourth, mutual benefit and win-win. The principle of indivisible security should be followed. One’s own security and the common security of all should be advanced side by side.
  • Fifth, a holistic approach. Security governance needs to be advanced in a coordinated manner, and traditional and non-traditional security threats should be tackled in a holistic way. Equal emphasis should be placed on security and development, to eliminate the breeding ground for insecurity and seek fundamental and durable ways for achieving sustainable security.

The GSI and GDI are both broad concepts that will be detailed out through substantive policies and partnerships in the coming years. Just as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) when announced by President Xi in 2013, was a broad concept that gradually crystalized by the receptivity from other countries and has today evolved into a major connectivity project and President Xi’s flagship foreign policy initiative.

The detailed concept paper on GSI issued a few days back by China expounds the core ideas and principles of the GSI, identifies the priorities, platforms and mechanisms of cooperation for safeguarding world peace and defend global security. The concept paper lays out 20 priorities of cooperation and all highly action-oriented.

The GSI has captivated the world attention more as it is a clear indication that that now China feels confident enough in its position on the world stage to roll out its vision for the new world order and for maintaining peace and security.

The GSI represents a formalized approach to securitizing China’s international development objectives and as such will be an essential part of the BRI Initiative in which China has already invested billions not only to boost regional connectivity but has also invested in areas beyond its immediate neighbourhood like Europe, South America and Africa. An enlarged network of security partners will help China to protect its huge investments in BRI and the protection of Chinese nationals abroad.

The Chinese are increasingly concerned by the formation of new security structures particularly in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific by the US, UK and European Union (EU).

China perceives initiatives such as the trilateral technology sharing partnership between Australia, the UK and the US (AUKUS), and security initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), in which the US, Japan, India and Australia participate, as deliberate hostile provocations from the West and an attempt to encircle China and if not halt then at least retard its peaceful rise.

Some of the Western analysts have argued that China believes the GSI would help China to rehabilitate its image in the eyes of nations that have been critical of its policy on Ukraine, and counter the growing ‘China threat’ narrative that is being promoted by the West.  Therefore China will pursue a policy that safeguards its own national interests and the GSI can help enhance its image of a superpower that respects the purposes and principles of the UN Char. Chinese also feel that whilst the West is preoccupied with geopolitical concerns in the Euro-Atlantic region and the Ukraine war, a window of opportunity has emerged to get traction for the GSI as an alternate to ensure the stability needed for economic recovery and development.

So far the reaction of the West to GSI is as was predicted that is critical and belletristic raising alarm about the real intentions of China however, Russia has already signaled its approval towards the GSI. The GSI is likely to be generally well received in Africa and Latin America. China has a number of existing security agreements with African nations. African nations are likely to view GSI as an opportunity for better influence in global economics and politics.  Countries such as Cameroon, Gabon, Ghana, and Nigeria have been receptive to China’s offers to boost security ties through military training, intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism efforts. Latin American and Caribbean countries may take a little longer to coordinate their involvement with the GSI, but both Nicaragua and Uruguay have expressed early support for the initiative.

In the immediate neighborhood of China, the response of South and Southeast Asia would need to be watched carefully as both these sub-regions have gained tremendous importance in the growing competition and confrontation between China and the US.  In South East Asian countries like the Philippines and Vietnam are aligned to the US and suspicious of China’s intentions in the Indian Ocean and Pacific region. They will therefore resist any further integration with China till the territorial disputes are amicably resolved to the satisfaction of all concerned parties. Continuing border disputes make India’s immediate participation difficult although New Delhi has hinted it was prepared to discuss possibilities.

For both China and the US, it is the other that is the cause of insecurity in the world. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken has called China “the most serious long-term challenge to the international order.” China, in turn, argues that it is the U.S. and its allies that are the “destabilizing” force. China is now squarely focused on using the GSI to give impetus to its narrative across the Asia-Pacific region and as far away as Africa and South America. The success of GSI will depend on its acceptability by China’s friends and partners, most of whom view it favourably and believe that GSI is the need of the hour be bring some stability to a world in a state of flux and conflict.

BJP’s Systematic use of Hindutva Ideology in Committing Crimes against Humanity in Kashmir

By
Noorulain Naseem
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Indian Occupation of Kashmir entered its 75th year in 2023. The internationally recognized disputed territory was put in 2019, under siege by the Indian government through a unanimous revocation of special status previously granted to Kashmir by article 370 of the Indian Constitution. Since then, Kashmir has become a living hell for its inhabitants. The promises of the Indian government of bringing normalcy to the valley through this change of status fell flat on its face.

Kashmir has become a living hell for its inhabitants after unanimous revocation of special status previously granted to Kashmir by article 370 of the Indian Constitution. The promises of the Indian government of bringing normalcy to the valley through this change of status fell flat on its face.

In the year 2019, Kashmiris faced almost 2000 Stone pelting incidents compared to 1400 instances in 2018 and 2017. India claims that only 400 militants are active in Kashmir Valley, while on the contrary, 900000 military personnel are deployed in the small region of Kashmir. Additionally, according to the statement of Mr. Kishan Rady, 50,000 Hindu temples would be restored in Kashmir. However, prominent Kashmiri Pandit Leader, Sanjay Tiko, states that there are only 4,000 temples in Kashmir. The exaggeratingly false number aptly depicts the underlying intention Modi regime, which is to re-engineer the religious orientation of Kashmir. Not only this, but according to International Independent sources, under the timeframe of 1 year, 7,000 people were arrested. From 2012 to March 2021, there were 518 government-imposed internet shutdowns, the highest number of Internet blocks in the world. In the year 2019, 106 internet impositions were made exactly after the revocation of article 370. This reflects how brutally the Kashmiris are silenced in order to promote convenient lies engineered by the Modi government. The world’s largest democracy has seized the right to freedom of speech through widespread Media Blackouts. The eminent writer of the New York Times, Pankaj Mishra, named her article “Kashmir the world’s most dangerous place” This so-called integral part of India, Kashmir has been the subject of at least three UNSC meetings. The U.S. Congress has also passed two house resolutions condemning Modi’s decision to revoke 370 Article. The unemployment rate is higher than the national average. In the initial Five months of the revocation of 370, the Kashmir economy lost 5.32 billion dollars and more than 100,000 Kashmiris lost their jobs. Additionally, the cross-LOC trade is seized, which was the major source of well-being for the Kashmiri population. The latest report of the World Bank states that the GDP of Kashmir is declined by 16.2 % in 2020 compared to 2019. The International Labour Organization in the year 2020 reported an increase in the unemployment rate by 8.6%.

The Modi regime has no limit to Human rights violations in Kashmir. The pellet guns were brutally used and no medical access was provided to Kashmiris. The most inhumane ways were used as weapons of war, which included chemical weapons, rape, and torture mechanisms. The approach of the Modi regime is multi-layered, which primarily includes changing the demographic structure of Kashmir. While keeping the facts straight, international Law stands against demographic changes which are contrary to the will of the indigenous population. Another approach opted is promoting “Hindi Language” as the official language of Kashmir. Similarly, on 26th October 2020, India passed a bill allowing non-locals to buy land in Kashmir. Adding to it, Kashmir is pinned as the predominantly Hindu populated region. To ensure this, India redefined the political constituencies. In order to gain support at the political level, Modi regime is constructing new political leaders in Kashmir, which will support. BJP’s narrative. Furthermore, India has declared the office of the UN Military Observer mission in Srinagar as illegal.

The pellet guns were brutally used and no medical access was provided to Kashmiris. The most inhumane ways were used as weapons of war, which included chemical weapons, rape, and torture mechanisms.

Apart from this, the political suppression of Kashmiris through systematic use of violence and state machinery by India continues. The condition of Muslim citizens of India since the introduction of discriminatory citizenship laws (CAA), by the BJP government. The National Population Register (NPR) and a proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC), aimed at identifying “illegal migrants,” has led to fears that millions of Indian Muslims are another example of dangerous repercussions of Hindutva ideology taking root in the constitution and policy reform in India. In Indian-occupied Kashmir, extra-judicial killings and prolonged custody by paramilitary forces continue. Asim Sultan is being detained since 2018 without any charges or conviction. Similarly, Khurram Pervaiz Malik, who is a civil rights activist from Kashmir, is held in custody since 2021. These systematic steps to change the demography of the valley by inhabiting Hindus in the regions and constructing temples show how strategically India is approaching the issue.

These acts combined qualify as genocide, which is defined as “the deliberate killing of numerous people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group.” The crimes against humanity are defined by the Rome statute of the International Criminal Court, as Murder, Extermination, Torture, Rape, or Persecution against any identifiable group or collectivity on political, racial, national, ethnic, cultural, religious, or gender as defined in paragraph 3, or other grounds that are universally recognized as impermissible under international law, in connection with any act referred to in this paragraph or any crime within the jurisdiction of the Court, Enforced disappearance of persons. Clearly, several of these have been repeatedly committed by Indian authorities in Occupied Kashmir. The international community has kept its lull in the plight of Kashmiris, but the struggle is unlike any other in the history of this world.

The Uncertain Prospects of China in Afghanistan

By
Dr. Usman
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Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan more than a year ago, the nation now faces a new terrorist threat that makes China’s commitment to the area riskier and more challenging. The Islamic State (I.S.) has suffered a worldwide decline since being defeated on its territory in 2019, yet it still thrives in Afghanistan. Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), according to a recent U.N. assessment on the danger presented by the organization, has successfully established itself as “the major adversary” to the Taliban. The organization still assaults Afghanistan once a month, but its bombs now have a more significant effect than before. It has carried out many strikes over the previous few months, hurting scores of people, including a suicide bombing at Kabul’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in January that caused more than 50 lives.

In the first months after the takeover, one might discount such assaults and give the Taliban the benefit of the doubt since they were attempting to solidify their hold on power. Yet it is now painfully evident that the Taliban lack the ability to maintain security in locations like Kabul. Taliban’s security measures are failing miserably, as seen by ISKP’s growing ability to launch significant strikes on targets like the Foreign Ministry or the Kabul Longan Hotel in December 2022. This is despite numerous, consistent reports that, over the last year, they have destroyed ISKP hideouts nationwide.

A more worrying trend is that ISKP is now attempting to create a barrier between the Taliban and nations generally supportive of Kabul’s new government. ISKP initiatives to attack diplomatic posts, such as the Russian and Pakistani embassies in September and December 2022, respectively, have been the main examples. China, which has developed a particularly tight relationship with the Taliban administration, is a specific target for ISKP’s aggressive campaign.

With US leave, Taliban may well see China as a possible source of financial investment. By implying Beijing intends to extend its commitment not just economically but also in the area of security, China has sometimes fueled the expectations of the Taliban.

China has been a focus of Islamic State propaganda for a number of years. One of I.S.’s songs, which urged Chinese Muslims to join its ranks, was published in Mandarin in 2015. The United Nations and various media outlets reported last year that the ethnic Uyghur bomber who targeted a Shia mosque in Kunduz in October 2021 was from Xinjiang.

Recently, China has been the focus of ISKP’s internet propaganda. The organization recently identified attacking Chinese, American, and Russian interests as one of its primary goals, along with freeing Uyghurs. The organization assaulted a hotel in Kabul’s center that was popular with Chinese visitors in December 2022, injuring at least five.

It is plausible to conclude that ISKP’s increasing emphasis on its campaign against China resulted from the present Afghanistan’s tolerant climate for jihadists. The setting of permissive security encourages collaboration between disparate organizations, among other things. ISKP has reportedly been aggressively recruiting militants from the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) under the direction of a “Uyghur unit,” according to a U.N. report from last year.

Yet, the organization makes an explicit reference to the probable collaboration between the ISKP and the TIP in its most recent report, a group of which China has always been the wariest (although Beijing conflates the group with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and generally uses that name).

According to UN assessment, the two have been working together to spread propaganda in Uyghur, exchange people and military counsel, plan combined assaults, and buy weapons together. This is especially noteworthy since TIP previously sided with ISKP’s adversary al-Qaida.

The ISKP’s campaign against China may result in a number of outcomes, none of which bode well for Afghanistan. Since the Taliban took control over a year ago, China’s economic influence has not lived up to expectations. An Al Jazeera program that looked at the inflow of Chinese businesspeople into Afghanistan paints a fairly gloomy picture of where things may go. The reality is that despite more kind leaders in Kabul, China will probably continue to be very careful about its commitment to the nation and avoid running the danger of a significant security issue. After the suicide attack on the hotel in Kabul in December 2022, China recommended its people to leave that country as soon as possible.

India’s Disinformation Debunked

By
Nousheen Ashraf
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The EU Dis InfoLab uncovers its latest investigation into anti-Pakistan-China influence operations by Asian News International (ANI) which continues to push fake narratives against the two countries. The report also follows up on two previous investigations published in 2019 and 2020 and exposed the disinformation and ghost experts, non-existent think tanks, bloggers, and journalists who are regularly quoted by Asian News International (ANI) as a source of their news.

The EU Dis InfoLab uncovers its latest investigation into anti-Pakistan-China influence operations by Asian News International (ANI) which continues to push fake narratives against the two countries.

The latest investigation revealed that ANI had been repeatedly quoting a think tank that was dissolved in 2014, using quotes from a journalist, as well as from several bloggers and supposed geopolitical experts, who do not exist. The report asserts that the reference to the same think tank was quoted about twice a week by ANI. The think tank’s website also falsely mentions real Canadian university professors as participants in a conference that they never attended, quoting false statements by associating them with these academics.

These platforms allegedly promote India’s geopolitical interests through the republication of propaganda

ANI is an Indian news agency that plays a major role in the country’s information network, providing content for many well-established media across India, such as The Print and Business Standard. ANI’s articles are also reproduced on well-known digital portals such as Yahoo News. With this network, ANI is a source of news to millions of Indians as well as a larger global audience.

ANI is an Indian news agency that plays a major role in the country’s information network, providing content for many well-established media across India, such as The Print and Business Standard.

The news agency has been criticized for having served as a propaganda tool for the incumbent central government, distributing materials from a vast network of fake news websites, and misreporting events. At the same time, ANI has been accused of practicing an aggressive model of journalism focused on maximum revenue output, which journalists were easily dispensable. Multiple employees have accused ANI of not having any human resource management system and of ill-treating their ex-employees.

The operation’s mission is to discredit nations in conflict with India in Asia, in particular, Pakistan but also China 

The news agency has been criticized for having served as a propaganda tool for the incumbent central government, distributing materials from a vast network of fake news websites, and misreporting events. At the same time, ANI has been accused of practicing an aggressive model of journalism.

It is worth adding that ANI had previously been accused of reporting the Indian government’s ‘version of the truth’ by the independent magazine The Caravan. Moreover, two previous EU Dis InfoLab investigations have revealed that ANI regularly quoted the non-operational fake media outlets ‘EP Today’ and ‘EU Chronicles’, supposedly specializing in EU affairs that were, in fact, created to push anti-Pakistan-China narratives not only in India but globally damage the reputation of two countries.

EU Dis InfoLab investigations have revealed that ANI regularly quoted the non-operational fake media outlets ‘EP Today’ and ‘EU Chronicles’, supposedly specializing in EU affairs that were, in fact, created to push anti-Pakistan-China narratives not only in India but globally damage the reputation of two countries.

Such irresponsible reporting is a blatant violation of the Charter of Munich 1971 which clearly lay down the rights and duties for responsible journalism. News items that are intentionally fabricated are termed as fake news in the strict sense and fake news is widely considered a substantial security threat, in particular, if it is state-sponsored. Such propaganda techniques can be characterized as part of larger Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s doctrine aimed to instigate hybrid warfare against Pakistan.

Indian Chronicles: deep dive into a 15-year operation targeting the EU and UN to serve Indian interests

Consisting of five wide-ranging elements, hybrid warfare starts with media propaganda and the use of the subject of mass communication for media propaganda. It uses disinformation, fake news, defamation of the government, political leaders, armed forces, judiciary, intervention in foreign electoral systems, and flawed diplomacy. Then comes cyber warfare hacking and manipulation of data. Economic coercion and sabotage, as well as subversive activities, are also a part of the grey hybrid spectrum.

Pakistan has been facing an accelerated hybrid war for the last decade which reached its tipping point in the last four years. All the five elements of hybrid war have been unleashed on Pakistan for the last several years however propaganda tools in form of fake news and disinformation are at the heart of the issue. Hybrid warfare is a battle of information, narratives, perceptions, and postmodern technology, since conventional methods of war have become less relevant after the introduction of nuclear weapons in the sub-continent, India has been using Hybrid Warfare and 5GW tactics to create destabilization in Pakistan.

Subversive activities, are a part of the grey hybrid spectrum. Pakistan has been facing an accelerated hybrid war for the last decade which reached its tipping point in the last four years. All the five elements of hybrid war have been unleashed on Pakistan for the last several years however propaganda tools in form of fake news and disinformation are at the heart of the issue.

To pursue its hegemonic ambitions and strategic interests, India makes use of propaganda, media, proxy wars, and sponsors’ militancy in order to disrupt the sociopolitical and ethno-nationalistic structure of Pakistan. It is high time that Pakistan adopts innovative strategies for mitigating the challenges imposed by the war of narratives. The counter-threat response to hybrid warfare requires the installation of a strategy that encompasses and unites all institutions of the state at a single platform and unites the diverse political parties and religious factions in the state. This response should be capable enough to identify propaganda and dissemination of fake news on media and cyberspace and should be dealt with as an area where a whole-of-nation approach is required to neutralize threats.

FIFA World Cup 2022 and the Geopolitics of Middle East

By
Aqsa Sajjad
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The Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) was founded in 1904 to forge unity among the national soccer associations and comprises 209 member states rivaling the United Nations Organizations. It started with the cooperation of 8 founding members Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. FIFA is considered as one of the most prestigious sports organizations in the world. It divides the world into six regional confederations i.e., The Confederation of African Football (Africa), the Asian Football Confederation (Asia and Australia), the Union of European Football Associations (Europe), The Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (North & Central America and the Caribbean), Oceania Football Confederation (Oceania) and The South American Football Confederation (South America).

Starting in 1930, till date FIFA has held 22 World Cup tournaments that have been organized by 18 countries primarily from Europe and the Americas. The Americas hosted 8 tournaments: 3 in North America and 5 in South America. 11 were held in Europe, 2 in Asia, and 1 in Africa.[1] FIFA Congress decides the hosting venue for holding the World Cup host country through a ballot; a system that evolved over the years after many conflicts within the organization on the selection of the hosting country. Till the 2002 World Cup held in Asia, hosted by South Korea and Japan it was hosted on a set pattern of alternation between Americas and Europe. The decision for the hosting venue generally takes place seven years prior to the tournament. However, the host for FIFA WC 2022 i.e.  Qatar, was chosen 12 years back at the same time when Russia was selected as a host for the 2018 tournament.

The World Cup 2022 held in Qatar from 20 November to 18 December 2022 is one of the most discussed tournaments in the world for a number of reasons. This is the first time when FIFA World Cup was hosted by an Arab Muslim country and 2nd time in Asia since 2002. The tournament also remained in highlights for being the most expensive i.e., 20 times more than the tournaments held since 1930.

Qatar, a small country of 3 million people around 300,000 of whom are permanent residents gained independence in 1971 and became the world’s top LNG exporter by the mid-2000s. The country now holds a sovereign wealth fund of USD 450 billion worth and is amongst one of the countries with the highest GDP and per capita in the world. Qatar got $1.7 billion from FIFA, including the $440 million prize money for the contesting teams. However, it spent an estimated amount of USD 220 billion,[2] roughly 100% of GDP, since winning the bid in 2010. The amount was spent on constructing 7 new stadiums for the international standard matches, refurbishing an old one, and creating a metro system to link the venues of the matches. Besides, out of this amount the funds were used to upgrade an airport, construct new hotels for the visiting fans, and upgradation the roads to host a world-class event. The tournament was held at 8 venues in 5 cities including Al-Daayen, Al-Khor, Al-Wakrah, Al-Rayyan, and the capital city of Doha. The matches were contested between 32 teams.

The FIFA World Cup 2022 held in Qatar is going to have a long-lasting impact. It was a unique event in its nature: as a small Arab country despite multiple controversies managed to uphold its norms and Muslim traditions. It will also help in altering the ‘world view’ of Islam and may help in countering Islamophobia too. Moreover, it is likely to have an enduring impact in terms of an economic boost, modernized and customized civic and sports infrastructure improving the image and international standing of Qatar.  The event commenced with the recitation of the following verses of the Holy Quran by a 20-year-old boy Ghanim Al Muftah, who is also a FIFA World Cup ambassador:

“Oh mankind, indeed we have created you from male and female and made you peoples and tribes that you may know one another.”[3]

Morgan Freeman and Ghanim al Muftah during the opening ceremony – Source: The Khaleej Times https://www.khaleejtimes.com/fifa-world-cup/fifa-world-cup-2022-look-how-qatar-welcomes-the-football-fans-with-quran-recitation

The ceremony was preceded by an invitation to the world by the host nation. The people were welcomed to visit Qatar with an open-mind and discover it as a pluralist state; knowing about its culture, religion and in the broader sense about the Muslim world, respecting the local customs, traditions, and laws.

Prior to the tournament a statement sent to CNN on behalf of “Qatar’s Supreme Committee for Delivery & Legacy (SC)” stated that,

It is meant to be “an inclusive and discriminatory-free” World Cup, “There has never been an issue and every event will be delivered safely.” “Everyone is welcome in Qatar, but we are a conservative country, and any public display of affection, regardless of orientation, is frowned upon. We simply ask for people to respect our culture. We all live on the same planet, but we each have different cultures. We welcome all, but we also expect and want people to respect our culture”.[4]

The host country guaranteed the tourists and spectators their safety and security by following the state laws and not undermining them. It also provided surety to the LGBT+ community not to be fearful to visit the country as long as they respect the traditions and values of Qatar. However, being prohibited in Islam consuming alcohol at the stadiums during matches was banned. Facilitating the international fans of football, hard drinks were allowed in designated places including FIFA Fan Festival, other fan destinations, and licensed venues, away from Qatar’s World Cup 2022 stadium perimeters.

Apart from the tournament, Qatar offered many spectacular sights including the sightseeing of the Katara Mosque to the visitors. The event’s most positive impact was a change in visitors’ views on Islam. To many, their visit to Qatar was the first exposure to a Muslim country and Islam. Around two thousand scholars on Islam, from across the globe, who spoke different world languages to preach Islam in their own languages had been brought in. These scholars helped remove the misconceptions about Islamic terrorism, rigidity, aggression, and forced imposition of religion. This resulted in sending a message of peace to the world. Besides, there were QR codes displayed at mosques offering the visitors to know about Islam and Quran in their preferred languages. Electronic boards containing Hadith and Islam in more than 30 languages were displayed in the mosques and outside. An official at Qatar’s Ministry of Religious Endowments told AFP that the goal of the state was not “the number of converts to Islam, but rather the number of those who change their opinion about it.”[5] The initiative was meant to break the barriers and encourage people to learn and understand the peaceful spirit of Islam which is inherited by Qatar. Fans visiting Qatar for the FIFA World Cup can take free guided tours of the Katara Mosque in multiple languages.

Canadian couple Dorinel and Clara Popa pose for a photo inside the Blue Mosque, during Qatar’s 2022 World Cup, in Doha, Nov. 29, 2022.- Source: https://www.voanews.com/a/world-cup-host-qatar-seeks-to-change-minds-on-islam/6862327.html
Fans visiting Qatar for the FIFA World Cup can take free guided tours of the Katara Mosque in multiple languages. – Source: https://www.interfaithamerica.org/world-cup-interfaith-understanding-islam/

Besides the religious and cultural impact on the state of Qatar and the Muslim world, the FIFA World Cup 2022 will further elevate Qatar in multiple domains including socio-economic spheres, creating job opportunities, tourism, diplomacy, and projecting the soft image of the country.

According to estimates, this World Cup generated 1.5 million job opportunities contributing in the state economy in construction, real estate, and hospitality.[6] Moreover, the tournament will surge tourism in Qatar for a long time as it gained extraordinary coverage by international media introducing Qatar to the globe and providing it access to new markets. The event also attracted thousands of people to destinations less likely to be known and visited otherwise. Qatar expects to achieve the target of 6 million visitors annually by 2030, up from 2 million in 2019.

Furthermore, the infrastructure developed for the mega event comprising stadiums, hotels, roads, airports and metro-line for commuters has added to the state property for an economic boost of the country, facilitating the tourists and the diversification of the economy.

The FIFA World Cup helped Qatar in elevating its position from an ordinary sports performer to a key sporting hub of the Middle East, providing it an entry in the global sports business. Winning the bid for the World Cup 2022 in 2010 opened new avenues for Qatar which brought many international sports events to its doors since 2010. Organizing this magnificent event engendered praise for a small Arab country. This has also opened new vistas of income generation and economic diversification in addition to its revenues from oil and gas.

The successful conduct of this mega event is seen as a powerful element to rebrand Qatar’s image including a legacy of being the first Arab Muslim country to host the FIFA World Cup. It also projected the soft image of Qatar enhancing its reputation not only at the regional level but also around the globe. Qatar successfully portrayed the Arab culture beyond its borders by utilizing the event and sending a message of being capable of hosting a world-class event adding to state confidence, illustrating the technological advancement, increased people-to-people interaction, tourism, and cultural manifestations.

The event further helped in enhancing diplomatic relations between Qatar and Gulf countries, which were experiencing bitterness since 2017, as the World Cup left a positive impact on their economies as well in the form of having more tourists visiting Qatar’s neighboring countries. Particularly UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia experienced a notable increase in tourism since the commencement of the tournament.

FIFA World Cup 2022 did not only benefit its host country but also to the FIFA association. Al Jazeera, a Qatar-based news channel reported that the World Cup held at Qatar produced 7.5 billion dollars for FIFA governing body with an increase of $1 billion in revenue from the tournament hosted by Russia in 2018, which is a record in itself.[7] It proved to be a distinguished event from the previously held tournaments which brought different people and cultures closer to one another from across the world. FIFA confirmed the notion by saying,

“Football reinforced its unique cohesive power by uniting the world in a spirit of peace and friendship.”[8]

Gianni Infantino, President of FIFA, termed it ‘the best FIFA World Cup ever’

In a statement posted on FIFA’s website on December 20, 2022, Infantino stated that,

“What you have done and what they have done to welcome the world to this country – this beautiful country – has been unbelievable, and everyone felt at home.”[9] He further added that for the first time in the history of modern WC, the world has come together in the tournament held at Qatar.

In short, the very much contested FIFA World Cup 2022 impacted the minds of a number of people from across the world. The western media’s criticism does not align with the social media stories of common people. The analysis of social media persons reflected that Islam was introduced to many non-Muslims around the world, who came to attend the FIFA World Cup, as a religion of peace and harmony. The story of animosity towards Islam and its followers was portrayed through the mainstream media by interpreting Qatar as a country denying basic rights to its citizens as well as the rights of the LGBT community and barring non-Muslims from consuming alcohol in the stadium premises. Qatar, however, practically manifested liberty appropriately, within the local laws and norms.  All in all, the event proved to be a massive hit and gave a message of peace to the world depicting the true spirit of Islam despite prevailing controversies.

Qatar achieved the objectives of making this global event successful by focusing in multiple directions including developing relations with the states and making the people understand about their point of view. Simultaneously, it tried to remove the misperceptions of the people about Islam and its teachings and introduced them to the Muslim Arab culture. The success of Qatar in achieving its objectives was also indicated by the global media in the following words,

“Qatar has sent a powerful message to the world through the World Cup that a nation can keep its cultural and religious values while remaining modern.”[10]

[1] Rudi Schuller, “FIFA World Cup Hosts: List of Every Country That Has Ever Staged the Famous Tournament”, August 2, 2022. https://www.dazn.com/en-US/news/soccer/fifa-world-cup-hosts-list-of-every-country-that-has-ever-staged-the-famous-tournament/1oj5lmkizmhej1h2vb30u3kx09, accessed January 22, 2023.

[2] Tariq Panja, “Qatar Got the World Cup It Wanted”, December 18, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/18/sports/soccer/qatar-world-cup-host.html, accessed January 22, 2023.

[3] FIFA World Cup: Qatar welcomes football fans with Quran recitation, Morgan Freeman narration, November 20 2022. https://www.khaleejtimes.com/fifa-world-cup/fifa-world-cup-2022-look-how-qatar-welcomes-the-football-fans-with-quran-recitation,  accessed January 22, 2023.

[4] Oumaima Latrech, “Qatar Enacts Sex Bans for Unmarried Fans Ahead of World Cup”, June 22, 2022. https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/06/349859/qatar-enacts-sex-bans-for-unmarried-fans-ahead-of-world-cup, accessed January 16, 2023.

[5] “World Cup Host Qatar Seeks to Change Minds on Islam”, December 04, 2022. https://www.voanews.com/a/world-cup-host-qatar-seeks-to-change-minds-on-islam/6862327.html, accessed January 16, 2023.

[6] Zahara Malik, “A Lasting Impact: The World Cup on the Middle East region and Beyond”

12 December, 2022. https://www.arabianbusiness.com/opinion/a-lasting-impact-the-world-cup-on-the-middle-east-region-and-beyond, accessed January 16, 2023.

[7] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/12/world-cup-football-financial-windfall/ (accessed January 16, 2023.

[8] FIFA World Cup 2022 praised for its “unique cohesive power”, December 16, 2022. https://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/organisation/fifa-council/media-releases/fifa-world-cup-2022-tm-praised-for-its-unique-cohesive-power, accessed January 16, 2023.

[9] “Gianni Infantino: Football is becoming truly global”, December 20, 2022. https://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/president/news/gianni-infantino-football-is-becoming-truly-global, accessed January 16, 2023.

[10] “FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022; bright chapter in Doha’s efforts to promote tolerance, coexistence culture”, December 22, 2022. http://en.kabar.kg/news/fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022-bright-chapter-in-dohas-efforts-to-promote-tolerance-coexistence-culture/, accessed January 23, 2023.

Indo-Pacific Strategic Developments: Implications for South Asia

By
Noorulain Naseem
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0

The South Asian region- home to 25% of the global population – is marked by deteriorating socio-economic conditions and volatile domestic political environments. The region also lags behind in terms of connectivity and bilateral trade. One of the reasons for bilateralism and regional integration to thrive in the region is India-Pakistan’s nuclear rivalry and Afghanistan’s perpetual instability, which makes it ever difficult for long-term bilateral trust to develop between states. This makes trade, connectivity, diplomacy, and dialogue even more difficult for this conflict-prone region.

The region attempted regional integration and cooperation through frameworks like Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and mega connectivity projects like Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Central Asia-South Asia Power Project CASA 1000, and Tajikistan- Afghanistan- Pakistan- India Gas Pipeline (TAPI). But the deeply shaken security dilemma and lack of collective security awareness in regional states result in delays in the completion of these projects or inefficiency of multilateral forums. With the protracted conflicts, ethnic unrest, and economic challenges still unresolved, the region now faces another challenge in the form of accelerated competition between the US and China, both of whom now aim to expand their respective spheres of influence and strategic competition beyond South Asia onto Indo-Pacific. This makes matters especially concerning for Pakistan, as it faces the aftermath of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in the form of refugee flows, and trans-national terrorism resurging in the volatile border areas. Meanwhile, the growing US-India defense cooperation and strategic alignment for greater Indo-Pacific cooperation make it even harder for Pakistan to lower its threat perceptions towards this partnership.

As much as Pakistan wants to resist becoming a casualty of great power competition, it is placed at the delicate epicenter of South Asia, and Central Asia via Afghanistan, West Asia, and the Indian Ocean. This makes it especially hard for Pakistan to remain indifferent to growing polarities, shifts in alliances, and resulting disruption in the balance of power, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. The resulting geopolitical stress is costing Pakistan its foreign policy, security, and economic goals in the shadows of great power competition. Pakistan’s National Security Policy mentions a renewed focus and commitment towards regional economic connectivity, human security, and development-based alliances.

The intensifying strategic competition has distracted the great powers of attention from some of the destabilizing challenges faced by the South Asian region.

US’s Indo-Pacific focus makes India its inevitable defense ally to counter China in the Indian Ocean. Some of the developments of this alliance, like the possibility of India obtaining nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS and QUAD gaining momentum since 2020 Malabar military exercises are of particular concern to both Pakistan and China. In case Washington actually designates India as its “net security provider” in the Indian Ocean, the regional geo-strategic calculus may get seriously destabilized. U.S.-India defense ties have drastically developed in the past decade. U.S. defense corporations are engaging directly with the Indian government to build its domestic arms production and defense technology capacity, which can further accelerate the arms race prevalent between both Pakistan-India and, now, China and India. The joint strategic vision statements and agreements between India and the US to bring India to park with NATO allies seems to indicate quite clearly that Pacific states and India are deliberately building polarity in the Indo-Pacific region. However, the intensifying strategic competition has distracted the great powers of attention from some of the destabilizing challenges faced by the South Asian region. What concerns Pakistan the most is the lack of US and international community engagement in Afghanistan’s worsening humanitarian crisis, and leaving the byproducts of the Afghan conflict to be managed by Pakistan and neighboring states alone. In this regard, the Indo-Pacific region is home to some of the world’s thriving economies that are now also integrating India through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. No doubt, India’s economic growth can rescue millions of people in its territory from poverty, but the dangers of Hindutva-led Indian policies and narrative, unfortunately, are being used to target minorities, focusing on religious-identity-based populism.

CPEC and Gwadar can be instrumental in reviving a staggering economy, and make it a transit hub for inter-regional trade.

As India invests heavily in its border infrastructure to facilitate trade links with smaller South Asian states, its bilateral trade with the U.S. hit a record $157 billion in two-way goods and services trade in 2021. In fact, the US is now the top destination for India’s merchandise exports. And yet is it China’s BRI and CPEC that are being securitized by the Indo-Pacific states, and India in particular considers this grand initiative of regional connectivity as an instrument of Chinese supremacy? India, therefore, remains reluctant to be a part of BRI and CPEC, resisting South Asian and Southeast Asian connectivity or related projects like the Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline (TAPI). For Pakistan, CPEC and Gwadar can be instrumental in reviving a staggering economy and making it a transit hub for inter-regional trade.

The US’ focus on the Indo-Pacific to balance power with China should not be at the expense of South-Asian development, and Pakistan’s history of alliance with the US.

The connectivity links and trade agreements coming under BRI can revive the domestic economies of Central Asia, and South Asia and integrate West Asian and Middle Eastern Markets to rescue the people from staggering poverty, economic stagnation, and resulting under-development. The US focus on the Indo-Pacific to balance power with China should not be at the expense of South-Asian development, and Pakistan’s history of alliance with the US. The alienation of South Asia and investment in defense alliances in the Indo-Pacific by the US might push both regions into zero-sum-based great power competition, making it especially hard for developing states, not to become a casualty of great power rivalry. Therefore, a renewed U.S.-Pakistan engagement, refocused on development, clean energy, and security cooperation beyond Afghanistan, is needed. This can also address the US’ apprehensions about the growing Chinese influence in the region and retain Washington’s strategic relevance in South Asian geopolitics.

Emergence of New Power Centers: Impact on US led World Order

By
Dr. Moonis Ahmar
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3
Morgan Freeman and Ghanim al Muftah during the opening ceremony

In his State of Union address delivered before American Congress on February 7 this year, the US President Joseph Biden primarily focused on domestic issues but also touched upon foreign policy challenges, challenges particularly from the People’s Republic of China. While reiterating that America will continue to play a leadership role in world affairs, he cautioned Congress members against rising threats to global order.

With defense expenditures of $850 billion, debt of $32 trillion and GDP of $24 trillion, the United States is passing through a critical phase because its defense expenditures are going up along with debt, but the economy is declining. Consequently, the leadership role of America to sustain West’s tutelage is under challenge from China and Russia.

 The United States is passing through a critical phase because its defense expenditures are going up along with debt, but the economy is declining. Consequently, the leadership role of America to sustain West’s tutelage is under challenge from China and Russia.

The US President Joseph Biden is in a denial mode asserting that his country is not declining in terms of economy, global security, poor infrastructure and growing racial divide capable of causing enormous damage to America’s credibility and capacity to protect its national interests.

Is there US a declining power and if yes, then why its leadership is unable to reverse the process of a steady waning of its superpower status? How will the vacuum created as a result of American decline will have its ramifications in global order? To what extent the West will accept the US leadership and how rupture in the Atlantic alliance will further jeopardize American influence in global affairs? These are the questions which are raised in the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the growing Sino-Russian nexus to cut the US down to its size.

Historically, no power on earth can sustain its influence and hold forever. Huge empires having their tutelage for centuries diminished and gave rise to new centers of power. But, the example of the United States is different because since it got independence from Britain in 1776 till today, it massively expanded its power. In 2026, the US will celebrate its 250th independence anniversary and from 13 states on July 5, 1776 it expanded to 50 states with enormous economic, technological and military progress surpassing European imperial powers and assuming number one position in global affairs as a superpower following the end of the Second World War.

United States is a classic example to understand how a weak state passed through the process of achieving, strengthening and demonstrating power. There is no other country in the history of the last 300 years which can match with America’s steady success in emerging as a global power. One needs to examine and analyze with critical thinking the projected decline of America from three angles. First, called as the land of opportunities, America regardless of apartheid system, excluding non-whites from basic rights including the right to vote till 1965, was called as the ‘land of opportunities’ and attracted talent from all over the world. Composed of migrants, excluding native Americans who were liquidated since the white European settlements from 16th century onwards, those who assumed leadership role after seeking independence from Britain worked hard to build their country brick by brick and made full use of enormous resources available to their country.

 The turning point in the US leadership role in global affairs was after it had won the Second World War and assumed the responsibility to protect western interests after the decline of European imperial powers.

Taking advantage of their ideal geographical location, American leaders pursued a gradualist approach in seeking a global power status. From a policy of isolation enshrined in Monroe doctrine of December 23, 1823 to winning the civil war of 1860s and the American-Spanish war of 1898, the US abandoned its policy of isolation by joining the First and the Second World War. The turning point in the US leadership role in global affairs was after it had won the Second World War and assumed the responsibility to protect western interests after the decline of European imperial powers. Paradoxically, the United States, which was the richest country of the world after World War Second and financed the historic Marshal Plan for reconstruction of war, devastated Europe in 1948 became the poorest country because of its surging debt of $32 trillion. Even then, at the non-state level, America is the richest country because of the accumulation of enormous wealth in the hands of several hundred billionaires; companies having assets of trillions of dollars and dollar as number one international currency.

The generation which planned and rendered sacrifices for transforming the United States from a weak state in 1776 to a major global power in 1945 is now replaced by a generation which lacks ownership and commitment to their country. As a result, Pax Americana, which replaced Pax Britannica during the 20th century, is no more a reality because 21st century is predicted to be Pax Asiana. Second, realistically speaking, despite the downhill trend of the US economy and it is declining leadership role in global affairs, it is argued that America will continue to influence the world in partnership with the West because of its technological superiority. Unlike the pre-Second World War situation when wars within the West led to the two world wars, after the Second World War, the West has not fought any war with each other. Resolution and management of conflicts, particularly between France and Germany in Europe and the role of the US under the auspices of NATO, tends to ensure Western supremacy in global affairs. Furthermore, Japan, despite being geographically located in Asia, is termed as a first world country having strong ties with the United States. In its essence, it is by default that America is playing a leadership role in global order by representing West and its allies in the developing world.

Following terrorist attacks in New York and Washington DC on September 11, 2001, which killed around 3,000 Americans, the US has managed to prevent a major terrorist attack on its soil. But, the price which it had to pay to counter terrorism is in the form of curtailing human rights and the vicious role of homeland security in apprehending those suspected to be involved in terrorism. Acts of harassment of the Muslim community and the detention of hundreds of Muslims in the notorious Guantanamo Bay prison badly eroded America’s image of the world. Even President Barack Obama during his eight years as American president failed to completely shut-down that prison because under the so-called counter terrorism strategy it was defended by the ultra-conservatives.

Perhaps, the worst phase in the recent American history shattering its image as a democracy got tarnished during the four-years term of former President Donald Trump. His tilt towards white supremacists and measures against Muslim immigrants badly damaged America’s image in global affairs. It was during the Trump era when serious efforts were made to cut America down to its size by offering an alternate world order under the leadership of Russia and China. The two giants of Asia made it clear that they would not allow American tutelage in global order any more. Even European allies of the US were antagonized because of Trump’s policies, which called for lowering the US financial contribution to NATO. The culture of populism, which is perceived to be anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant, further fragmented and polarized American society. Countless acts of lynching of Afro-Americans by the white American police galvanized hatred against the white dominated Trump administration, which significantly contributed to the defeat of Trump led Republican party in November 2020 elections.

Finally, how a country like Pakistan, which despite being the fifth most populated country in the world, will be impacted if the US led world order declines and new centers of power emerge in the coming years? The position taken by the then Prime Minister of Pakistan when Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24 antagonized the United States. America wanted Pakistan to condemn Russian attack and wanted its Prime Minister not to visit Moscow the day when Ukraine was attacked. Unfortunately, the failure of Pakistan to focus on its economy and seek political stability augmented its vulnerability because with a weak economy it had to make compromises on its sovereignty. Reaching out to International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a 23rd time in the last 75 years of its history meant acquiescing to American pressure. It also means compromising on its sovereignty by agreeing to harsh conditions of Washington based IMF without realizing the fact that instead of seeking foreign aid, it should have focused on enhancing exports and pursuing a policy of self-reliance. Those at the helm of affairs plunged their country into deep economic crisis.

It would have been better for Pakistan to follow success stories of South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, China, India and the UAE in terms of their economic vibrancy. But, with tunnel vision and meager skills to pull Pakistan from deep economic and political crisis, they further deepened their country’s dependence on IMF, China and the West. In this scenario, alarmists argue that those having an age-old dream to neutralize Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal will take advantage of its economic fiasco and impose conditions which will compel Islamabad to slash its defense expenditures and allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor and control Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

Given Pakistan’s pressing economic and political condition, its role in global affairs and to deal with the transformation of world order is questionable. Huge power asymmetry between Pakistan and other players in global order, including India, is a major reality. Yet, if governing elites take cognizance of the situation and be mindful of their country’s fragile and failing status, one can expect some better role of Pakistan in the prevailing world order.

Certainly, history teaches us the lesson that no power can sustain its hold over power for long but in case of the United States it is a different story because it is not just America but the West whose survival is stake because of Sino-Russian nexus and the possible cleavage in the Atlantic Alliance.

To sum up, one can argue that in the year 2023 is critical both for Pakistan and the world order. During this year, Pakistan can further sink in the vicious cycle of economic and political crisis or a miracle can happen and pull the country from an impending disaster. It is yet to be seen if miracles take place in today’s world. As far as the world order is concerned, certainly history teaches us the lesson that no power can sustain its hold over power for long but in case of the United States it is a different story because it is not just America but the West whose survival is stake because of Sino-Russian nexus and the possible cleavage in the Atlantic Alliance. Certainly, there is no surety that the world will be better off if the world order transforms as a result of American decline or a multipolar world with responsible global actors will ensure peace and stability.

International Approach and Challenges to South Asian Strategic Stability

By
Dr. Rahat Iqbal
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7

The formation of international regimes established after World-War -I and II was aimed at maintaining international peace and security. However, a stable world order demands a just and fair approach by major powers. Of course, in South Asia, this factor is overshadowed by the complex dynamics of the region. The stability matrix of South Asia is always under stress, due to long-lasting conflicts between — India and Pakistan, further aggravated by great power competition in the broader Asia-Pacific region.

In the global context, the western bloc, primarily the United States (US), is focusing on containing China’s economic rise and its influence in Asia-Pacific through strengthening of bi-lateral trade and strategic partnership with India. Due to great power competition, the international community has overlooked the security element in the context of South Asia, which can endanger regional peace and strategic stability.

Due to great power competition, the international community has overlooked the security element in the context of South Asia, which can endanger regional peace and strategic stability.

In 2008, US and India signed a nuclear deal in order to assist Delhi in coping with its energy crisis. This eventually has led to the potential of strengthening its strategic capability. Under this deal, the US enabled India to get a Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) waiver. This exception to India has set a precedent for its membership in export control regimes, including Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The moment India became a member of MTCR, it extended the range of BrahMos missile from 290km to 490 km. The waiver aggravates the situation and affects regional strategic stability. For instance, in March 2022, this was illustrated during the BrahMos missile incident. This was the first time in history that one Nuclear Weapon State (NWS) launched a missile attack on another NWS, with zero reaction from the international community. The Indian actions or intentions should have attracted the attention of the international community, particularly, as India is considered being an adherent of export control regimes. On the contrary, in a similar development in November 2022, when the eastern border of Poland was likely struck by a conventional S-300 air defense missile of Russia, killing two people. The incident was taken up as a serious matter by the international community.

India has embarked upon building military prowess and strategic advantage in an unprecedented manner. The cooperation by the West has led India to enhance its defensive capabilities through military and technological advancement. It is enhancing its nuclear capabilities by developing its fast breeder reactors, nuclear powered sub-marines, Inter-continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), acquiring Ballistic Missile Defense while strengthening its air defense mechanism. Proliferation of such high-impact weapons capabilities can put the strategic stability at risk. With all this, India can opt for an opportunity to carry out preemptive operations against Pakistan. This is so because India’s weapons/missiles are already on ready to launch mode, which was also anticipated during BrahMos missile incident. Moreover, the strengthening of Indian defense capabilities would assist Delhi in changing its nuclear policy from No First Use (NFU) to First Use and military strategy towards counter force targeting and first strike. This would inevitably compel Pakistan to take some assertive measures in order to prevent any outside threat.

Since India is considered as an important strategic ally of US, its inclusion in other security alliances could further disturb regional peace. For instance, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad axis) will push India to boost its naval coverage and exercises in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) in order to dominate it. On the other hand, the majority of Pakistan’s trade is seaborne, dependent upon the safe and secure sea-lanes of communications. India, which has a Hindutva ideology and wants to suppress Pakistan in order to maintain its regional supremacy, can get a chance to opt for a naval blockade which can hinder Pakistan’s economic activities in IOR. The Indo-US strategic partnership has enabled Delhi to enhance its defense capabilities, which is reinforced by possible formation of an alliance between India, France and US (INFRUS). This aims to empower India by enhancing its deterrent capabilities against regional powers. In another incident, India became confident of waging a limited war against Islamabad. India conducted a so-called surgical strike against Pakistan in Balakot in 2019. This could have resulted in hardcore response but Pakistan reacted responsibly to deescalate the situation. Given Indian belligerence and hegemonic designs, a future conflict may not remain limited and can escalate to total war in South Asia. This will surely have spillover effects in the region and beyond.

Given Indian belligerence and hegemonic designs, a future conflict may not remain limited and can escalate to total war in South Asia. This will surely have spillover effects in the region and beyond.

The special treatment of India by the US and the west has given it confidence to desire conducting a hot -testing of thermonuclear devices and has been requesting the West for its support, by using the card of stability matrix in Asia-Pacific. If it happens, Pakistan will be left with no option but to enhance its deterrent posture to the best of its capabilities.

It is high time that the international community and the established regimes should realize that the exceptional favors for India for their vested interest can create challenges for sustaining strategic stability in the region. To overcome such challenges, Indian hegemonic ambitions to be a regional policeman must be put in check to maintain regional peace and stability.

Understanding US Security Role in Indo-Pacific

By
Muhammad Abubaker
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3

The International security landscape is undergoing significant changes and appears to be in a period of transition towards a new global order. This transition is marked by growing strategic competition among the US, China, & Russia, as indicated by the US National Security Strategy’s (NSS-22) designation of China as a strategic competitor and Russia as an immediate threat. The US side perceives China as a potential threat to its hegemony and sphere of influence due to its rapid economic growth. To restrict China, the US side is working to restore its security leadership role in the Indo-Pacific by strengthening its alliances with the ocean-going maritime democracies, building new partnerships with Pacific island nations, and reinvigorating the Quad.

The US has increased its footprints in the Indo-Pacific in recognition of the fact that it is the most dynamic region in the world.

The US has increased its footprints in the Indo-Pacific in recognition of the fact that it is the most dynamic region in the world. It is regarded as an economic powerhouse with the potential to affect the future of people residing in different parts of the world over the next century. The US has a vision for the Indo-Pacific region. It wants to see it as a free, open, connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient area. To achieve that goal requires forging connections between the Indo-Pacific in the East and Euro-Atlantic in the West in order to leverage European interests in the region. This is part of the motivation for the new Australia, UK, and US partnership (AUKUS) to make this vision a reality. Moreover, the US Indo-Pacific strategy is clearly aimed at countering China’s economic growth & calls for investments in democratic institutions & civil society, promoting free trade and maintaining peace & stability across the Taiwan Strait. Apart from that, it also emphasizes aligning with like-minded partners to compete effectively with China and other countries that favor authoritarian systems over democratic systems.

The Bush administration in the mid-2000s launched a significant shift in US military, economic, and diplomatic strategy towards Asia with the goal of managing, rather than containing, China’s rise. This was achieved through a combination of internal and external balancing measures, aimed at expanding the collective power of the US and its allies and partners to discourage China from pursuing hegemony. The Obama administration continued this initiative under the ‘Pivot to Asia’ strategy, which has guided the US policy in the region. The Trump administration further emphasized the importance of Asia in the US foreign policy by introducing the ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ concept, which sought to strengthen ties with India as a counterbalance to China.

The Biden Administration has ushered in a new era of strategic partnership and commitment to the Indo-Pacific region, as evidenced by key initiatives such as the revival of Quad, AUKUS, and Pacific Partnership strategy. These efforts aim to establish a security partnership to counter the perceived Chinese threat, secure an open and free Indo-Pacific, and deter coercion. Additionally, the administration has prioritized engagement with the ASEAN bloc to expand its sphere of influence, and has introduced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) as part of a broader strategy to maintain a balance of power against China. Analysts have noted that while this strategy is logical and compelling, effectively implementing it will prove to be a formidable challenge. This approach builds on the recognition of the importance of Asia, a focus that previous administration has also placed on strengthening alliances and working collectively to bring greater security and prosperity in the region.

The Quad is seen as a direct challenge to China and its assertiveness in the region, with the goal of managing China’s rise and fostering friendly relations with ASEAN countries.

Recent developments in the Indo-Pacific region indicate that the US, under the Biden administration, is taking steps to counteract China’s growing influence. One key aspect of this strategy is the revival of Quad, an informal security alliance comprising democratic nations such as Japan, Australia, India, and the US. The Quad is seen as a direct challenge to China and its assertiveness in the region, with the goal of managing China’s rise and fostering friendly relations with ASEAN countries. The Quad is also aimed at deterring the use of coercive practices in resolving territorial and political disputes, such as Taiwan, South China Sea (SCS), and East China Sea (ECS). Additionally, the Quad serves as a platform for diplomatic consultation, military cooperation, information exchange, and economic integration. President Biden has expressed concerns about the threat posed by China’s security apparatus, and his approach emphasizes working through multilateral institutions, as demonstrated by multiple Quad summits.

It is important to note that any conflict in the region will be having a detrimental effect on cooperative mechanisms in the region. Therefore, communication and cooperation are key in addressing the challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, instead of resorting to quasi-security groupings.

The US side is currently playing a significant security leadership role in the Indo-Pacific region. However, China views this role as a challenge to its own interests and aims to neutralize any anti-China bloc in the region. It has accused the US of stoking tensions and has advised the US to adopt a more cooperative approach, rather than indulging in a new Cold War. China has also urged the US to look beyond its narrow political agendas and has proposed the path of peaceful development. Furthermore, it has denounced the US efforts to impose its will on the Asian region. It is important to note that any conflict in the region will be having a detrimental effect on cooperative mechanisms in the region. Therefore, communication and cooperation are key in addressing the challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, instead of resorting to quasi-security groupings.

Africa-Russia & the Changing World Order

By
Dr. Usman
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3

South Africa and Russia have pledged to deepen bilateral relations and will conduct a combined military exercise on the anniversary of Ukraine’s invasion. Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia, paid a visit to Pretoria as part of his second trip to Africa since the invasion; he will also allegedly visit Botswana, Angola, and Eswatini. The journey largely served as a declaration of Russia’s “non-isolation,” sending the message that important strategic partnerships still exist despite Western sanctions and attempts to exclude it from the international scene.

The current global geopolitical tensions signal the need for institutional mechanisms that will have the stature form and global trust to promote and support global peace and security, according to the ruling African National Congress (ANC), which has suggested Pretoria could use the chairmanship to push for the admission of new members to expand the bloc’s presence and challenge the dominance of global superpowers

Shortly after the invasion of Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, South Africa requested Russia to promptly remove its troops from Ukraine. But the tone has shifted since then. In the ensuing U.N. vote in March to condemn Russia’s actions, South Africa was one of 15 African countries to abstain. Asserting Russia’s withdrawal during their meeting would have been “simplistic and infantile,” South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said at a joint press conference with Lavrov. She also made reference to the massive transfer of arms that has since occurred from Western powers to support Ukraine’s military efforts. In addition, Pandor praised the expanding political, economic, social, and military cooperation between Pretoria and Moscow. It highlighted the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) group of top developing nations’ international obligations in a changing world economy.

South Africa will hold a combined naval drill with Russia and China. Hosting such operations with allies was a natural element of ties, refuting the idea that only certain nations are suitable partners. The combined drill, called “Mosi,” which is Tswana for “Smoke,” was timed to “attract attention worldwide.”

The current global geopolitical tensions signal the need for institutional mechanisms that will have the stature form and global trust to promote and support global peace and security, according to the ruling African National Congress (ANC), which has suggested Pretoria could use the chairmanship to push for the admission of new members to expand the bloc’s presence and challenge the dominance of global superpowers. In order to guarantee that it is part of a revised international order, BRICS should take a constructive role in developing processes.

Between February 17 and February 27, South Africa will hold a combined naval drill with Russia and China. Hosting such operations with allies was a natural element of ties, refuting the idea that only certain nations are suitable partners. The combined drill, called “Mosi,” which is Tswana for “Smoke,” was timed to “attract attention worldwide.” South Africa has resolutely refused to be “bullied” despite pressure from its Western allies to support its opposition to the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s ability to position itself as an anti-imperialist resistance force, playing on people’s animosity toward Western powers like the U.S., U.K., and France, owing to their history of tyranny on the continent, is key to its appeal to many African states. Russia has been able to take advantage of perceived “patronizing attitudes” from the West and “anti-imperialist emotions” despite its relatively minor trading ties with the African continent compared to that of the European Union.

Thirty years ago, the Russian Federation, then a part of the Soviet Union, supported the anti-apartheid campaign in South Africa, which would later serve as the ANC’s foundation.

Countries like South Africa have bought into Russia’s narrative that it is an anti-colonial power, that it stands up for the underdog, that having one superpower—and having that superpower be the United States—is bad for the world, that there should be multipolarity, and that there should be alternative sources of power and alternative methods of power distribution.

Protesters were waving Russian flags in Burkina Faso as they denounced France and the regional organization ECOWAS in recent weeks, underscoring Russia’s expanding influence. Undoubtedly, there is rising discontent with France in its old playgrounds, while Russia thrives on instability, and its institutions are filling the void left by France’s withdrawal.

Along with spreading pro-Kremlin messages, Russian social media campaigns have capitalized on political rivalries and existing fault lines, such as anti-French or anti-gay prejudice.  Countries like South Africa have bought into Russia’s narrative that it is an anti-colonial power, that it stands up for the underdog, that having one superpower—and having that superpower be the United States—is bad for the world, that there should be multipolarity, and that there should be alternative sources of power and alternative methods of power distribution.

The newly appointed foreign minister of China, Qin Gang, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have all visited Africa in the last month; Yellen is scheduled to meet with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa this week. While U.S. President Joe Biden hosted a U.S.-Africa Summit in December, seen as an effort to reclaim some of the influence Washington has lost to China over the past decade or more, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also paid visits to the continent last year.

 

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