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COP 27 – Challenges and Way Forward

By
Tayyaba Razzaq
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0

The 27th UN climate change, conference of parties 27 (COP 27) also termed as ‘Africa’s Cop’ took place in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt. Generally, the main purpose of COP was to consult and share the ideas to counter global warming by taking necessary actions.

After the Paris Peace Climate Accord, held in COP21, the importance and concerns regarding climate change took an important turn. In addition to this, COP26 was mainly concerned about the actions, written in the Paris Peace Accord, that should be taken to counter the global warming and carbon emissions. Whereas COP27 was focused to promote climate justice as many countries are least responsible for climate crisis but are facing the major loss and damage.

COP27 gave hope to the developing countries to counter loss and damage by receiving climate financing and achieving global decarbonization. Most importantly, the developed states recognized the responsibility to pay for loss and damage to poor and developing countries especially those states who are struggling because of climate disasters.

On the other hand, it has been observed that COP27 did not achieve what was expected. Various reasons contributed to the failures that can be broadly divided into three categories. Firstly, the global politics that encapsulates US-China conflict escalation and Russia Ukraine war. Secondly, the issues of developing and developed states; lack of responsibility, lack of interest and reducing the fossil fuels. Thirdly, the absence of strategies including location and time in which COP27 was being held.

GLOBAL POLITICS

Russia Ukraine War

Developing states did not expect a drastic change in the policies under COP27. Such low expectations were due to the Russia Ukraine war. Now, Ukraine marks almost eleven months since Russia has launched a full-scale invasion and it has literally wreaked havoc in the market of global energy. Especially the prices of crude oil and natural gas has soared to an extent that even developed states are being affected. Hence, it has become a major challenge for states to completely abandon the use of fossil fuels. The results are completely other-worldly, as European states are drastically relying on the coal burnt energy as it is relatively cheaper as compared to the soared crude oil and gas prices.

Let us not forget that states have agreed to limit global temperatures and take steps for different measures and contributions to achieve net carbon zero until 2050, or climate disasters would become irreversible.

US-China Conflict Escalation

United States and China have one of the most complex bilateral relations that has a noticeable impact on the international environment. Conflict escalation is observed between both countries since the US House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan to mark a significant show of support for Taiwan against China’s threat. China’s foreign ministry has declared this visit as severe impact on the political foundation of China-US relations. This has further exacerbated the situation against the climate policies to achieve goals that counters global warming, especially carbon emissions.

US and China together contribute 40% of the world’s carbon emissions. Most importantly, last year in COP26, US and China, surprisingly, reached a deal in which they agreed to collaborate by taking collective measures to reverse global warming.

Hence, COP26 had its own importance as the deal between United States and China was a very positive development.

No matter how unfortunate it may seem, the US-China conflict drastically affected the outcomes of COP27. The Foreign Minister of Egypt, after COP27, explained how the delegates did not make a clear commitment to further proceed to eliminate the use of fossil fuels. The agreements were very vague to show concerns regarding the loss and damage occurred by the climate disasters. However, the absence of collaboration between both the states will result in a failure of any meaningful outcome in future COPs.

ISSUES OF DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED STATES

The ‘Phase Out’ or ‘Phase Down’ of Fossil Fuels

The Glasgow Climate Pact focuses on subsidies for fossil fuels and to reduce the usage of unabated coal. India’s climate minister Bhupender Yadav argued that the developing nations still have to deal with their development ambitions and poverty eradication and questioned how they could commit to ending subsidies for coal and fossil fuels. Moreover, India is demanding to phase down every fossil fuel not only coal.

The debate regarding ‘Phaseout’ and ‘Phase down’ remained under war of words and no serious outcome was observed in this COP. Hence, just like COP 26 some states were dissatisfied with the outcome, but in the end, the countries must agree to phase out coal rather than step down, considering the situation and occurrence of climate disasters.

The most recent major report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made it abundantly clear that in order to maintain hope of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the world must halve emissions by 2030. This change would require urgently reducing fossil fuel use across the board. After that point, climate disasters will be far more devastating.

India has been a leading voice in favor of the shift, which goes against the conventional wisdom and climate policies. The experts have predicted that India’s carbon emissions would increase by 6 percent by the end of 2022.

Lack of Interest of Developed States

As we know, every state has some internal affairs and policies especially related to domestic issues. Many developments and economic issues may affect their pledges made at the climate change conference, considering an example of the UK, since Rishi Sunik came to power.

Compared to other COPs, this one is more difficult to assess because there was no decisive moment. The world is obviously not on track to achieve the Paris Agreement’s aims at this time. This shifts the burden of proof to developed countries to show that they are making genuine efforts to deal with climate disasters and reduce carbon emissions. Apart from this, every developing state is supposed to keep an eye out for unambiguous signs that a country is making rapid and fruitful improvement. During this global turmoil, developing states also need to witness concrete examples of real political will. The need to keep the clean energy transition should be kept firmly in mind if states want to ensure their survival in the current climate conditions.

China’s collaboration is very significant to understand how much it is prepared to provide and how it will demonstrate its commitment to take required steps to meet the 1.5°C objective is a significant question mark hovering over the COP.

Many nations require more strict emission reduction targets. During the conference, Alok Sharma MP, President of COP26 in Glasgow, highlighted worries about COP27. In addition, he stated, “Emission reductions before 2025 are important, but they are not in the language, nor are strong promises to phase out fossil fuels, and the energy wording was reduced at the last minute.”

Developed states are the sovereign states and their contribution towards decision making is extremely important. Hence states must focus on increasing bilateral and multi-lateral relations to maximize collaboration.

TIME, PLACE AND STRATEGIES

Location and Time of COP-27

Last year, COP26 was being criticized that it was too much focused on the north and is marginalizing the voices of other regions. In context to this, Egypt was nominated as a host for COP27, so that the marginalized voices of other continents must be heard. As many countries in the Global south are far more prone to the climate disasters and have experienced droughts, flooding and extreme weather conditions.

Egypt is currently under military rule, having General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as president. The current political system has a strong control on the civilians as it has taken a shift from monarchy towards the military rule. With having already restricted attention of media and being controlled by Egyptian security forces, only limited presence of civil society was allowed.

While the summit was being held, residents were restricted and there were various checkpoints to restrict and limit local attendance. Many delegates were concerned regarding the Egyptian dictatorship as the tightly controlled security may hinder the effective negotiations. Additionally, the civil society organizations were not able to effectively contribute towards the discussion regarding the climate issues due to the authoritarian rule in Egypt.

Cop 27 was about to start in few days followed by the G20 summit. Country heads were busy in debating that which conference they should attend. Due to geo-political tensions like Russia Ukraine war and China Taiwan crisis world had already entered in the ‘catastrophic stage’ in terms of the economy and climate. Climate change is putting risks to national economies hence, the significance of the simultaneous occurrence of these two gatherings cannot be overstated as Cop27 and G20 were a necessity. However, their simultaneous occurrence has also affected outcomes of the conference.

Absence of Strategies

It should not be taken for granted that, for the very first time, developed states have at least agreed to provide climate assistance to the poor and developing countries. Mostly, the rich countries are those that are known for creating most of the carbon emissions that are drastic for humanity. However, the COP27 has left a major vacuum in the discussions when no clear strategies were made regarding the financial aid. Clear strategies would allow every state to understand how much each country that is being affected by carbon emissions is going to receive aid, and how much each country is supposed to donate. Such strategies would lead to such policies which will hold those developed states responsible and at least they are contributing for the damages that developing states are facing with already soared economic conditions.

Recommendations

  • COP27 has been hailed as the world’s last chance to prevent global warming of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to a recent analysis, countries’ new plans are inadequate, therefore world is on pace for between 2.4C and 2.8C warming. Hence COP28 must bring results instead of discussions.
  • Since major economies like India and China are not in favor of being required contributors to the fund, next year’s, COP28, meeting must focus on clarifying the donor base and beneficiaries’ points on the loss and damage fund agreement at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh.
  • At COP27, countries also agreed to form a “transitional committee” to advise on how to put the new financial arrangements and the fund into action at the following year’s COP28. Therefore, the loss and damage fund must focus on the proper strategies regarding fund distribution by institutional arrangements and governance for developing or vulnerable countries.
  • The transitional committee must also focus on the deserving states and the amount of fund being distributed is not unjust.
  • China and India demanded “phase out” to be shifted to “phase down”. Which clearly shows that getting rid of fossil fuels is not easy as the issue has become a major point of contention. The alternative ideas must be given to the states which are dependent on coal otherwise this issue will stay the same in COP28.
  • Climate experts have raised the issue regarding FIFA world cup, criticizing that that the money is already there but is not being used to stop and control the carbon emissions. Hence, states are capable enough to provide funds to vulnerable states. The money is there but sense of responsibility is not.
  • Climate change is a global issue, instead of dividing, US and China must focus on uniting in terms of climate as COP27 was considered as a last chance.
  • European Union must reconsider and look at carbon-intensive coal as an alternative energy source which will ultimately reduce its emissions by nearly 0.8%.

There is an urgent need for healing. However, doing so would be similar to treating symptoms rather than causes. Not focusing on the more pressing aim of speeding up a low-carbon and climate-resilient transition and rapidly scaling solutions because of the need to get the loss and damage fund specifics correct is a serious mistake.

Conclusion

The climate summit concluded with a breakthrough agreement for developing nations. It was disappointing that there were no agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions further. Although in COP 27, states agreed to establish funds to assist developing nations in recovering from climate-related disasters such as flooding. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres viewed it as an important step towards justice as it would help poor nations that face climate disasters and are more vulnerable. It has been criticized that there was no new carbon reduction pledge, and these negotiations were scheduled and rescheduled until the ‘loss and damage’ agreement was finalized. Obviously, this will not be sufficient, as proper strategies are needed to distribute funds through under proper governance to restore lost trust of Climate vulnerable states.

Kazakhstan Elections: An Overview

By
Fahad Ahmad Misson
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The start of this year could not have been any more different for Kazakhstan when compared to the tragic January of 2022. Just over twelve months ago, the country was amidst a violent coup attempt orchestrated by groups that wanted to see the nation collapse. There was a real possibility that Kazakhstan’s statehood would fall apart from within, which would have had reverberating consequences well beyond Central Asia.

Fortunately, the country managed to not only recover from the wounds of January 2022 events but to further strengthen the foundations of our governance through political and socio-economic changes.

Fast forward twelve months from January 2022, and the country is quite unrecognizable. The constitutional amendments that were implemented following the nationwide referendum in June 2022 have ushered in new democratic principles in the country, including a more influential parliament, limited presidential powers, simplified procedures for registering new political parties, direct elections of akims (mayors), among many other important measures.

Several political initiatives have launched from January this year. Perhaps most significant is the establishment of the Constitutional Court, to which every citizen can apply, including the Commissioner for Human Rights and the Prosecutor General. The Court will ensure that the country’s laws are in line with the Constitution and will protect the fundamental rights of their citizens. Elvira Azimova, the first Chairperson of the Constitutional Court, previously worked as Commissioner for Human Rights in Kazakhstan. This is a clear indication of the Court’s priorities and direction.

Now, Kazakhstan is moving fast towards Mazhilis (the lower house of parliament) and maslikhats (local representative bodies) elections on March 19. These elections will be unique in many respects.

Firstly, two recently established political parties will participate in the vote. For instance, towards the end of last year, the Green Party was established in Kazakhstan, which will raise awareness of ecological issues – an area that is of vital importance due to the ongoing climate change challenges. And the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is no exception.

As a result of a major flood in the history of Pakistan, which occurred in the summer and autumn of last 2022, more than 30 million Pakistani citizens were left homeless. The damage caused to agricultural land, livestock and urban infrastructure is a direct evidence of the relevance of the environmental agenda.

Overall, seven parties are now registered in the country offering a plethora of political choice for the electorate. Their participation in competitive elections will further contribute to strengthening a multi-party system by increasing plurality and influence of opposition politics, an objective which the country has been working towards for the past several years. Significantly, the threshold for parties to enter the Mazhilis has been reduced from seven to five percent, making it easier for opposition parties to enter parliament and play an important role in increasing government accountability.

Secondly, a mixed proportional-majoritarian model will be used for the first time for the election to the Mazhilis since 2004, where 70 percent of deputies will be elected proportionally from party lists, and 30 percent by majoritarian rule from single-member districts. This means that 29 out of 98 members of parliament will be elected in single-mandate constituencies, while 69 will be elected from party lists under the proportional representation model from a single nationwide constituency. The elections to the maslikhats of districts and cities of national importance will also be held under a mixed electoral system, with a 50/50 ratio, while lower level maslikhats will be elected completely under a majoritarian rule.

In addition, an against all option will be included on the ballots, which will give the electorate the opportunity to express their disapproval of all candidates should they wish to do so. Finally, a 30 percent quota for women, youth, and persons with special needs has been established at the legislative level in the distribution of the mandates of the members of parliament from the party lists. This ensures wider representation in parliament of all groups in Kazakhstan.

The country has always shown its commitment to holding free, open, and fair elections. The role of election monitors is undoubtedly crucial in this regard. As with previous elections, including the presidential election in November 2022, we have invited 10 international organizations and scores of observers from foreign nations to observe the election. Kazakhstan expects the largest election observation missions from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

A delegation of observers from the Islamic Republic of Pakistan will take part in these elections for the first time, this visit will contribute to further strengthening the parliamentary dialogue.

As is commonly known, in December 2022, Mr. Yerlan Koshanov, the Chairman of the Mazhilis of the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan paid an official visit to Islamabad for the first time in the history of bilateral relations between Kazakhstan and Pakistan. This visit served as an additional incentive to the development of inter-parliamentary cooperation.

The upcoming elections will mark another important milestone in the development of Kazakhstan’s democracy. Many were unsure whether the country would recover after the unrest in January 2022. Yet they have managed to overcome this hurdle.

In addition to demonstrating our resilience and stability, they have transformed our country through significant political and socio-economic initiatives.

The elections will not change the country overnight, but they will further contribute to the creation of a Just Kazakhstan – a prosperous society, and a more vibrant, dynamic and competitive political system. Such a country will be an even stronger and more committed partner for cooperation for the international community, including for the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in both bilateral and multilateral formats, primarily in the context of regional cooperation.

As the world continues to navigate current geopolitical and economic challenges, a stable and thriving Kazakhstan is to the benefit of not just their own citizens, but to the whole region and beyond. The political reforms, supported by competitive elections, is the foundation on which we will ensure the stability and continue to build the future of Kazakhstan.

Syrian Civil War: A Brief Overview

By
Muhammad Tayyab
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Since the Arab uprising in 2011, commonly known as the Arab Spring, the Middle Eastern region in general and Syria, in particular, are entangled in a long spiral of violent conflicts. Although initially the uprising was triggered by an individual incident of self-immolation of a vendor (Muhammad Bu Azizi) in Tunisia, however, its roots are embedded deep in history. The deep socio-political and economic chasms and inequalities between the rulers and the ruled led to the emergence of inherent conflicts within these countries which ultimately manifested into violence in the backdrop of the Arab Spring. People stood up against the tyranny and despotism of these rulers who had been ruling them for decades, demanding greater individual freedom and equality.

The conflict in Syria is the continuation of the Arab Spring, which emerged as a result of people’s protest against Bashar Al Asad’s regime that turned into an unending violent civil war.

Since March 2011, people took to the streets against the oppressive regime, demanding their rights to freedom and access to an economic and political institution without any discrimination. However, the coercive government response and the interplay between and among the regional and international players for their own vested interests plunged this country into an unabated cycle of violence resulting in the worst humanitarian crisis after the Second World War. More than 500,000 people have been killed and over 10 million Syrians have been displaced.

Syria like the rest of Middle Eastern societies is a multi-communal society divided mainly along sectarian lines. A Muslim majority state comprising 74% Sunnis, 16% other sects (Alawites, Druze & Ismailis), and 10% Christian and Jewish population. Such multi-communal societies, where one community dominates and is unresponsive to the needs of other communities, provide firm bases for conflicts to arise. Syria is a Sunni-majority state that has been ruled by the Alawite minority since the early 1960s. With their ascendency to power, Hafiz al Assad embarked upon policies of discrimination and marginalization mainly on the basis of sectarian affinities and affiliations. In an attempt to consolidate and sustain his power, Suunis from all the important political and military positions were replaced with minority Alawites, thus deepening the feelings of hatred and animosity which had been there between these sects since Ottoman rule. Though apparently secular, his regime was avowedly prejudiced and hostage to socio-political and economic inequalities that privileged Alawites while discriminating against the Sunni majority.

After the death of Hafez Al Assad, his son Bashar Al Assad succeeded him as the new president of Syria in 2000. Inheriting a fragmented society where there was a disarticulation between the state and the society mainly on the basis of non-identical identities, Bashar Al Assad tried to unite his people but to no avail. His cosmetic reforms agenda coupled with an enforced integration of society plan further alienated people from the state resulting in more fragmentation and divisions, pitting the two major sects against one another. The Arab Spring proved to be the proverbial last nail in the coffin. People’s protests against growing inequalities and injustices were met with a coercive state response with a concocted plea presenting the protestors as Sunni extremists to overthrow the Alawite government purely on the basis of sectarianism. Hence the struggle against the repressive policies of the regime was deliberately transformed into a sectarian conflict that invited many regional players, protracting the war.

The protraction and longevity of the Syrian civil war owe greatly to the communal discord between the Sunnis and the Alawites that had been brewing up since Ottoman rule and exploited by Hafez and Bashar Al Assad for sustaining their rule.

Hence the underlying socio-political and economic grievances fed into the already existing communal fault lines resulting in a long brutal civil war. Capitalizing upon the sectarian element, the regional powers, mainly Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran threw their weights behind opposing parties to the conflict for their own vested interests. Due to changing geopolitical dynamic of the region, Iran and Saudi Arabia has been wrestling for political and religious hegemony in the region. While Turkey’s policies in the Syrian conflict remained in flux throughout this period due to its changing foreign policy objective. In the preceding years of the war, it supported the rebel groups (including Kurdish militias) who were fighting the regime forces and ISIS in an attempt to quell international terrorism. But due to fear of Kurdish empowerment, it joined hands with Russia and Iran in supporting Assad in order to restrain Kurdish activities.

Similarly, the dissatisfaction of international powers with the existing global power structure and the declining hegemony of the US in the international political arena encouraged other states like Russia and China to challenge the status quo. Since then these powers have been utilizing every misstep of the US to the fullest. Owing to declining US dominancy in the Middle East they have been flexing their muscles in a bid to outdo it. With this objective in mind, Russia has been vocal.

Book Review – The Economic Weapon

By
theadmin
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When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the United States and the European Union implemented harsh economic and financial sanctions on Moscow. The financial costs and repercussions of these sanctions have been felt throughout the globe. As a result, Nicholas Mulder’s latest book, which explores the development of economic sanctions as a weapon for policymaking in the 1920s, comes at an ideal moment.

Mulder, a history professor at Cornell University, aims to clarify “how economic sanctions began in the three decades following World War I and grew into their contemporary form.” “The economic weapon exposes itself as one of liberal internationalism’s most durable creations of the twentieth century,” he writes in his conclusion.

The economic weapon exposes itself as one of liberal internationalism’s most durable creations of the twentieth century.

Economic pressure has always been an element of international relations, but more often as a supplementary tactic to outright hostilities, as in the case of Britain’s blockade of Europe during the Napoleonic Wars. Yet, after World War I, the notion that economic sanctions may be used to penalize and deter aggressors during times of peace emerged. Sanctions were no longer only a tool of war; they may have served as a peacemaker. At least, it is what the League of Nations’ founders envisioned. The notion, according to Mulder, ‘had a considerably more significant influence on modern history than is typically supposed. It fundamentally affected the interwar world and, consequently, the structure of the political and economic system we live in today.

Mulder’s book is organized into three sections, each with multiple chapters. The issue of sanctions during the Paris peace talks after World War I and the usage of blockades during those talks are covered in the first section. The discussion amongst liberal internationalists concerning the advantages of sanctions vs. neutrality in different wars is covered in the second chapter, which looks at the ‘legitimacy’ of sanctions throughout the 1920s. The third section investigates the use of economic penalties throughout the 1930s crisis before the start of World War Two. One chapter concentrates on the League of Nations’ penalties against Mussolini’s Italy for the 1935 invasion of Ethiopia. Those measures forced the Axis nations to work towards self-sufficiency. The book contends that ‘the strengthening of autarky in the mid-1930s might be regarded as motivated partly by a broad “blockade-phobia” spurred on by memories of economic war and maintained alive by sanctions’.

In fact, according to Mulder’s account, the unwinding of economic restrictions did not go as expected. Sanctions were utilized by the powerful against the powerless rather than as deterrence by the powerful. Western European nations used sanctions as a “disciplinary tool of the Western empire” and “a type of dominance without hegemony” against the periphery. Additionally, the weaker nations that were the target of sanctions suffered great harm. After World War I, malnutrition and disease caused by the blockade killed between 300,000 and 400,000 people in Central Europe, while the Anglo-French embargo also caused 500,000 fatalities in the Ottoman territories of the Middle East.

Sanctions could have even backfired. “Sanctions encouraged this nationalist trend rather than halting it and the danger of conflict it implied,” says Mulder. Target nations’ efforts to become robust and intensify their pursuit of economic security led to an “unintentional disruptive effect” played by sanctions that boosted the forces of nationalism and autarky.

Mulder considers it amusing that following World War II, the United States, which had technically declared itself neutral throughout the interwar years, often used the policy while first opposing it. He is concerned about the human cost of sanctions and that they are not employed to prevent conflict but for other objectives.

Mulder thinks that sanctions often fail to accomplish their goals, cause collateral harm, and sometimes have unintended effects. The ‘history of sanctions is primarily a history of disappointment,’ he writes, and ‘ultimately, weaving enmity into the fabric of international relations and human interaction is of small service in transforming the world.’ He is appalled by the function that sanctions have in the contemporary world. ‘Now, as the international economy struggles from financial crises, nationalism, trade conflicts, and a worldwide pandemic, sanctions are exacerbating existing tensions within globalization, unintentional injuries may be equally as damaging as intentional ones.

The book is thorough but may only interest those who wish to delve deeply into the history and application of sanctions during the interwar era.

Cyber-Warfare and Pakistan Maritime Security

By
Muhammad Shahzad Akram
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Cyber warfare can have a significant impact on maritime security, as many aspects of the maritime industry rely on digital technologies and networks. For example, shipping companies and ports use complex computer systems to manage cargo, navigation, and communication.

Cyber attacks on complex computer systems could result in serious disruptions to the movement of goods and people, as well as potential safety hazards.

Similarly, military vessels and equipment also rely heavily on digital technologies, such as navigation and communication systems, which could be targeted in a cyber attack. Moreover, cyber-attacks can be used to steal sensitive information, such as cargo manifests, ship positions, or military intelligence, which can be exploited for criminal or strategic purposes. To address these risks, it is essential to develop strong cybersecurity measures and protocols for the maritime industry, including training personnel to recognize and respond to potential threats. Additionally, international cooperation and information-sharing are important to detect and respond to cyber-attacks and prevent future incidents. However, like any country with a significant maritime industry, Pakistan’s maritime security could be vulnerable to cyber attacks, especially as the industry relies on complex computer systems and networks to manage shipping, cargo, navigation, and communication.

Pakistan has been taking steps to enhance its cybersecurity posture, including the establishment of a National Centre for Cyber Security in 2018 and the development of a National Cyber Security Policy. However, the evolving nature of cyber threats, coupled with the rapid advancement of technology, means that maritime security in Pakistan and other countries can never be fully immune to cyber attacks.

International cooperation and information-sharing are important to detect and respond to cyber-attacks and prevent future incidents.

It is important for maritime organizations and authorities in Pakistan to continually review and enhance their cybersecurity measures and protocols, including implementing regular risk assessments, training personnel to recognize and respond to potential threats, and establishing effective incident response plans to minimize the impact of cyber attacks. Moreover, international cooperation and information-sharing can help to detect and respond to cyber attacks more efficiently and prevent future incidents.

There have been several reported incidents of cyber attacks on maritime systems in Pakistan in recent years. In 2018, it was reported that Pakistani shipping company, M.S.T.C.S., had fallen victim to a cyber attack that resulted in the loss of important data and the disruption of operations. The company had to shut down its IT systems for a period of time to mitigate the attack’s impact.

In 2020, Pakistan’s largest shipping company, Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC), also reported a cyber attack that impacted its operations. The company was forced to shut down its IT systems temporarily to investigate the attack and restore its services. Furthermore, in January 2021, a data breach was reported in Pakistan’s largest port, the Karachi Port Trust (KPT). The breach exposed sensitive data, including confidential documents and emails, belonging to the port and its customers. These incidents highlight the need for strong cybersecurity measures and protocols to protect maritime systems and data against potential cyber-attacks.

Maritime organizations and authorities in Pakistan and around the world must continually monitor their systems and networks for potential threats and work to improve their cybersecurity posture to prevent and respond to cyber-attacks effectively.

There are several ways that Pakistan can counter cyber threats to its maritime security:

1- Pakistan can develop a comprehensive cybersecurity strategy that includes measures to protect the maritime industry against cyber attacks. This strategy should include risk assessments, cybersecurity standards, and protocols for detecting, responding to, and recovering from cyber-attacks.

2- Maritime organizations and authorities in Pakistan can conduct regular cybersecurity assessments and audits to identify vulnerabilities and potential threats to their systems and networks.

3- Pakistan can implement strong cybersecurity measures, such as firewalls, encryption, intrusion detection, and prevention systems, and access control policies, to protect its maritime systems and networks.

4- Maritime personnel in Pakistan can receive training on cybersecurity best practices, such as identifying and reporting potential cyber threats, maintaining strong passwords, and recognizing phishing scams.

5- Pakistan can foster international cooperation and information-sharing on cybersecurity issues with other countries and maritime organizations to detect and respond to cyber attacks more effectively and prevent future incidents.

6- Maritime organizations and authorities in Pakistan can establish effective incident response plans to minimize the impact of cyber-attacks and recover quickly from any damage or disruption caused by an attack.

Overall, implementing a multi-layered cybersecurity approach that includes education, training, and the implementation of appropriate technological solutions can help Pakistan protect its maritime industry against cyber threats

Ukraine crisis Timeline

By
Info Desk
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The dynamics of Ukraine–Russia relations and conflict have enveloped over the years. Follow the timeline to know more: Stratheia

The GCC States and Pakistan: Mitigating the Climate Challenges

By
Usama Umar
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Climate Change is a global issue and has become a national security concern of the states. The temperature of the earth is increasing day by day due to global warming, posing serious threats to life on earth. All the global actors are focused on making the rise in the temperature limited to 1.5 degrees as per the pre-industrialization temperature and making cooperation to mitigate the issue and save the humanity and world from a disaster. Pakistan is one of the 10 most vulnerable countries to climate change despite the fact that it contributes only 0.8% of the overall Carbon emission. But still Lahore and Karachi, the two megacities, are the most polluted cities in the world. In short, both the aforementioned regions are vulnerable to this climatic change, and cooperation to face the challenge and mitigation is crucial.

 Pakistan is one of the 10 most vulnerable countries to climate change despite the fact that it contributes only 0.8% of the overall Carbon emission.

One of the major consequences of climate change that the Gulf region is likely to face is food security. GCC countries are dependent on food imports as they import almost 90% of their food from other countries, largely from the west. On the other hand, Pakistan is an agricultural country that is facing problems in this area due to climate change i.e. soil erosion, drastic rains, floods, etc. and it has largely affected the production rate and quality as well.  Pakistan has the capacity to fulfill the needs and demands of the GCC countries and needs investment to enhance productivity. According to Strengthens Weaknesses Opportunities Threats (SWOT) analysis, food is an area where both Pakistan and Gulf Cooperation Council states can cooperate with each other to solve the problem. In this regard, Kuwait, one of the GCC countries, has shown interest in investing in the field of agriculture and technological advancement in this area.

Kuwait is planning to invest 750 million dollars in this area and that is going to be one of the largest proposed investments in Pakistan in the recent past.

Similarly Pakistan is very famous for its Billion Tree Tsunami project under clean and green Pakistan to plant 10 Billion trees in the country and 40 Billion trees further to enhance environmental stability and reduce the carbon concentration in the atmosphere as much as possible. Praising the initiative, the Crown Prince of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad bin Salman MBS showed interest in this project and wanted Pakistan to cooperate with KSA. Both states are focused on cooperation for green projects to reduce carbon emissions and ensure a healthy environment. In this regard, Pakistan offered support with knowledge and experience. A technique called “Miyawaki Forest Technique” that requires less water for the plants/trees to grow has been introduced to KSA which is suitable according to the environment of that region. Along with cooperation on green areas, both states can also cooperate on brown areas i.e. pollution control and waste management techniques, direly required for Pakistan.

Moreover, Pakistan can grow plants and send them to Saudi Arabia for plantation under the green middle east project. Another important factor, renewable energy sources, is the key factor in the war against Climate Change. Renewable energy sources are considered to be safe, cheap, and environment-friendly sources i.e., solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, and electric power as well. The world is making a shift towards renewable energy sources. Luckily Pakistan has the capacity to generate energy from solar and wind and can fulfill the needs at less cost. UAE, one of the GCC states, is working on renewable energy sources, even the International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA has set up an office in Abu Dhabi, UAE. Pakistan needs investment and cooperation in this area to reduce non-renewable energy consumption and generate more from wind and solar. Pakistan and UAE have signed an MOU in order to enhance the field of climate mitigation and environmental protection in line with the national legislation of both states. Further, both states can work together in the fields of health, energy, ecosystem restoration, tourism i.e. Eco-tourism and dessert tourism, information exchange, and joint research on climate issues.

The world is making a shift towards renewable energy sources. Luckily Pakistan has the capacity to generate energy from solar and wind and can fulfill the needs at less cost.

It is quite clear from the above discussion that climate change has posed serious threats to the states. The GCC states and Pakistan cooperation would ensure regional climate stability and mitigate challenges emanating from climate change. The GCC states and Pakistan are already enjoying multifaceted cooperation in the fields of economy, diplomacy, and security. Hence, climate cooperation between GCC and Pakistan will be another feather in their cap.

Global Dynamics and Policy Options for Pakistan

By
Anam Ali
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While most of the policy elite in Pakistan is busy firefighting the current political meltdown, the ongoing economic crisis, and a surge in acts of terrorism, a storm is brewing around the neighborhood and beyond. It is extremely important for policymakers to keep these issues in mind so that a crisis can be averted in near future.

On the eastern flank, India in its latest act of defying international law has issued a legal notice about the revocation of the Indus Water Treaty. The Indus Water Treaty was brokered by World Bank between Pakistan and India and is currently the longest-standing agreement between the two countries. The current reaction by our experts is no less than a joke and expresses the seriousness of the country as a whole.

The lack of understanding of international law on water issues is just mind-boggling.

The second crisis that is brewing is two-pronged and again taking place in India. India will host SCO and G20 summit this year. The Indian media has been blowing the trumpet loud and across the globe stating that they have invited Pakistan. As per rule, Pakistan being a member of SCO has to be invited and India is not extending any favor. Also, India is planning to host some G20 events in IIOJK which again is an Indian attempt to ridicule UN conventions. Apart from a few experts, no one in the policy circles is raising these points. Pakistan must come down strong on this Indian propaganda.

Towards the western neighborhood, it seems that the Taliban are moving close to every other country except Pakistan. The body language of our defense minister and other members of the delegation is not sending any positive signals.

Pakistan cannot afford a hot border with Afghanistan and ties with the Taliban should be amended for the safety and security of Pakistan.

On the global front, China is being arm twisted by the US and some unprecedented actions are being taken by the Americans. Some analysts say that it is the beginning of a new cold war and some paint it as a rise in temperatures by Americans. The Chinese are also cold-shouldering Pakistan. As of now, they have closed down the councilor services and there is no Ambassador posted in Islamabad by China. Whatever the case may be, when push comes to shove, Pakistan needs to have some strong and clear policy options Vis a Vis China and the USA for this fast-approaching scenario.

On the European front, it seems that the Ukrainian-Russian war is there for the long haul. There have been so many stories about the American manipulation of the war and recently Seymour Hersh did an expose on how they blew up the Nord Stream. A recent article by New York Times has also highlighted how the westerners are scrambling to procure the soviet armory for Ukraine. Amidst this crisis, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Imran Khan has written a letter to President Arif Alvi which accuses the former Chief of the Army Staff of deviating from the official stance on the conflict. This can actually blow up in the face of the current government and it needs to act strong and build a strong case. Just abstaining from UN polls will not suffice for the western partners. Pakistan actually needs to have a strong and clear strategy on the issue.

In the Middle East, it seems that Pakistan has already lost its reputation. The economic crisis has completely shattered the Pakistani image among Arab royals. A new diplomatic engagement is a need of time. The Arabs are fond of hunting and Pakistan offers wonderful opportunities. Pakistan needs to engage 2nd and 3rd-tier royalty and invite them for a private tour. Through these tours, Pakistan can build its goodwill and at a later stage ask the members of the royal family to invest in Pakistan.

Everything mentioned above can be countered and is doable without any major hassle. However, this requires a lot of policy planning and deep strategic thinking. It seems that at the moment, policymakers are not thinking along these lines or maybe they just don’t have the time to address these challenges due to the ongoing crisis. Either way, while the resilient nation is trying its level best to fight the internal challenges, it should not forget about the growing external challenges. If this is not done on a priority basis, Pakistan will be caught by surprise and some haphazard decision-making will take place. Pakistan has already suffered a lot on the diplomatic front and it cannot afford any more disasters.

Pakistan: A Responsible Nuclear State

By
Tayyaba Khurshid
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Many states have used nuclear energy worldwide to overcome energy challenges, and Pakistan’s peaceful nuclear program is a great success. Realizing the true potential of nuclear energy, Pakistan developed a comprehensive framework for the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

The Nuclear Program of Pakistan is safe and robust. It has always been a responsible nuclear weapon state and therefore except for the baseless allegations, there has never been a single instance of theft of nuclear material.

Although Pakistan didn’t sign Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty NPT due to its deep security concerns but cooperates and works closely with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). IAEA is an intergovernmental organization that promotes and regulates the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Its mandate is to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health, and prosperity throughout the world. Pakistan signed a safeguard agreement with IAEA in 2005 that allows IAEA to inspect Pakistan’s civilian nuclear facilities and their use for peaceful purposes only. It also covers the export and import of nuclear weapons. Along with this agreement, Pakistan’s internal nuclear security regime is also comprehensive including both legislative and regulatory framework that governs nuclear safety and security. Pakistan National Command Authority is the apex decision-making body in all nuclear-related matters with effective and robust command and control system.

For regulation of nuclear safety and protection of radiation, transport, and waste of nuclear material, Pakistan has developed Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA). The ‘Regulations on Security of Radioactive Sources’ is in line with the IAEA Code of Conduct on nuclear safety and security of radioactive resources and its two supplementary guidance documents. The  Strategic Export Control Division (SECDIV) looks upon the export controls to monitor the items that can be used for the development of Nuclear, Chemical, or biological weapons or their delivery systems. Pakistan has strengthened its control on exports of nuclear, biological, and related materials and their delivery systems through the Export Control Act of 2004. The National Control Lists are reviewed periodically as per the changes made by International export control regimes.

Pakistan has successfully implemented the IAEA nuclear security program and contributes to and benefits from the IAEA regarding the security of nuclear material as per its mandate.

The Director General of IAEA Mr. Rafael Mariano Grossi has recently visited Pakistan for a two-day visit and inspected 6 nuclear sites in Pakistan. He acknowledged Pakistan’s technical and engineering capacity for new nuclear power plants including Small Modular Reactors. As Pakistan is the country that suffers most from Climate change and Energy crises, hence nuclear energy is the best option for Pakistan to mitigate climate issues and energy crises. The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog praised Pakistan’s nuclear safety and security along with its technical capacity. He reiterated that “Pakistan has a promising future concerning nuclear energy”.

The DG IAEA comments show that Pakistan has adopted an extremely secure and robust mechanism for its nuclear safety and despite the political instability and economic downfall; Pakistan’s nuclear regime is safe and secure. He even termed Pakistan’s civilian nuclear facilities as “World Class” and Impeccable. Moreover, he acknowledged Pakistan’s nuclear capacity to develop new nuclear plants that will help the state meet its critical energy demands causing a reduction in energy costs and producing clean and environmentally friendly energy.

The initial set-up of such plants requires a strong financial back-up because they are relatively high cost as compared to other set-ups like fossil fuel power plants. But in the long run, nuclear power plants are relatively cheaper to operate and require specific topography to be safe and functional. The DG visit is a success in projecting a positive image of Pakistan in the nuclear community as he has also approved nuclear facilities and extended support for civilian use of nuclear projects. However, financing such projects is still a question and that requires a strong economy.

Hence, Pakistan must focus on restructuring its finances and capital to improve its economic situation which will solve the other problems. Nuclear Technology and its peaceful use are what all the states are seeking to improve their energy needs. Yet, a strong financial backup to support the nuclear program for peaceful use is crucial for long-term sustenance and stability. The majority of issues that Pakistan is facing today are due to the weak economy. Hence, when the state’s finances will be in order, only then nuclear power can be a long-term solution to our health, environmental, and energy problems. With the multiplicity of challenges that states are facing, nuclear energy remains a suitable option to mitigate issues related to health, agriculture, food, and water. Therefore, Pakistan should maximize its cooperation with IAEA to benefit from its technical cooperation program.

Resurgence of TTP and Pak-Afghan Ties

By
Hassam Ahmed Siddiqi
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Conflict and instability in Pakistan have once again impacted the politico-economic stability of the country. Pakistan’s internal security has once again been plagued by the resurgence of militancy as the country faced at least 376 terror attacks in 2022, in which 533 people were killed and 832 were injured. 2022 has seen the highest number of militant attacks in Pakistan during the last five years as the terror incidents increased by 28 percent compared with 2021. Owing to the trend, January 2023 has been the deadliest month since July 2018 as the militants carried out 44 terrorist attacks killing 134 people while at least 254 people were injured. Attack on Police lines in Peshawar alone killed more than 100 people; leading our political and military establishment to explore options for dealing with this current wave of militancy.

The Fall of the Ghani regime and the Afghan Taliban’s control over Kabul was rejoiced by many in August 2021; however, tides have turned as relations between the two neighboring states have experienced an all-time low since then. Afghan Taliban seemed to be certain of the fact that Pakistan will recognize their government; however, contrary to their confidence, successive political governments of Pakistan refrained to recognize the Taliban administration.

Hence, controversy on the issue of border management, the erection of fencing on different places alongside the borderline, disagreements over foreign and economic policy, the rise in terrorism in Pakistan, and Afghanistan’s unhindered support for TTP are a few key issues that have strained the nature of the relationship.

Though Afghan Taliban had agreed in their February 2020 agreement with the United States; that they will not allow their soil to be used against any other state, nevertheless, two decades of conflict in the country has its spill effects and unfortunately, Pakistan is once again bearing the burden of losing precious lives to terrorism in addition to the absence of peace leading to political and socioeconomic uncertainty in the country.

Currently, the internal security of Pakistan and different factions of TTP attacking the security forces of Pakistan as well as the general public has evolved as a major issue of concern for political and security establishment. The prospect of handling TTP through dialogue and negotiations was tried by the Imran Khan government, yet it miserably failed. Extortion has always been TTP’s major source of funding and during the last year, there have been several reported cases of influential people of KP receiving threats for money.

Afghan Taliban are believed to be supporting TTP by providing them with safe havens as well as material and moral support to create instability in Pakistan. The recent visit to Kabul by Pakistan’s high-level delegation, which included Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and DG ISI Lt. General Nadeem Anjum, centered on counterterrorism with Afghanistan’s Acting Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Minister of Defense Mullah Yaqoob speaks volumes about Pakistan’s concerns regarding Afghan soil being used against Pakistan. Though these discussions between the leadership of the two sides are expected to pacify issues of the conflict; yet, Pakistan cannot expect the Afghan government would immediately stop supporting the TTP, particularly when there is an ideological affinity between the two groups as well. It has also been unofficially reported that Afghan Taliban have agreed to disarm and relocate TTP cadres from the bordering areas to other cities; however, the cost of this rehabilitation will have to be borne by Pakistan. Though supporting the Afghan Taliban at this time appears problematic in light of our economic obligations and international perception of backing the Taliban regime, dealing with the problem of TTP is essential, and Pakistan may need to keep its viable choices open.

After losing over 80,000 lives in the war on terror, Pakistan had hardly regained its long-overdue peace in the country. Economic activity was gradually uplifting and the country was slowly paving the path of progress and economic development. TTP’s resurgence and its widescale attacks in the country have once again brought the lead into thinking to launch another grand military operation to fight militancy. However, political instability over the last nine months has brought the country to the verge of economic default. Inflation is on the rise and international financial institutions are hardly willing to help the PML (N) leadership in a time of crisis. Hence, financing another major military option currently may not be an option, especially when IMF has asked the government to reduce its spending.

TTP’s resurgence and its widescale attacks in the country have once again brought the lead into thinking to launch another grand military operation to fight militancy.

Since military operation against TTP seems to be out of the question immediately, Pakistan must redeem its terms of engagement with the Afghan Taliban and convince them to halt their support for TTP. Increasing economic interdependence between the two states and facilitating Afghan citizens in Pakistan seems to be the only forward for regaining the trust of Afghan leadership. Though terrorism necessitates enhanced security; coping with the existing challenges is only possible through intelligence sharing and collaborating with the Afghan authorities on defense and security.

However, if the Afghan Taliban continue supporting TTP and terrorism continues to rise; Pakistan will have no choice left, but to manage its economic obligations and initiate a wide-scale operation against TTP in particular and other militant groups in general. Afghanistan has to be given a deep sense of realization that neighbors cannot be changed.

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