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Nuclear Energy in Pakistan: Harnessing the Power, Confronting the Complexities

By
Nadir Ali
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A severe energy crisis has been plaguing Pakistan for a number of years due to an insufficient electricity supply and rising energy demand. The majority of the nation’s energy needs are met by costly and environmentally harmful non-renewable resources like oil and gas. The country’s social and economic development has additionally been negatively impacted by the energy crisis. Pakistan has implemented several measures in recent years to address the energy crisis and move toward renewable energy sources. Wind, solar, and hydropower plants are just some of the renewable energy initiatives undertaken by the Government. These projects have contributed to those objectives by reducing the nation’s reliance on non-renewable resources and diversifying the country’s energy mix.

Similarly, Pakistan is looking into alternative energy sources, and nuclear energy has emerged as a potential remedy.

Nuclear power plants, though, have the capacity to generate a significant amount of electricity at a low cost and with little greenhouse gas emissions.

Furthermore, Pakistan’s energy mix now includes nuclear energy as an important component. Pakistan had six nuclear power plants that were operational in 2022. Being able to produce a lot of electricity at a low cost is one of nuclear power’s key benefits. Pakistan’s operating nuclear power plants have assisted the nation in diversifying its energy mix and lowering its reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, by fostering local industries and creating job opportunities, nuclear power plants have made a significant contribution to the economic growth of the areas in which they are situated.

Besides, the main benefit of nuclear energy is its capacity to produce a lot of electricity at a reasonable price. The continuous operation makes nuclear power plants a dependable source of electricity. The drawbacks of nuclear energy, however, include issues with waste management, safety, and high initial costs. Therefore, nuclear power plant safety is of utmost concern, and any breach of safety procedures could have disastrous effects. Nuclear waste must also be properly managed because it is highly radioactive and must be disposed of safely. Whereas, natural resources like sunlight, wind, water, and geothermal heat are used to create non-polluting renewable energy sources. The sustainability and low environmental impact of renewable energy sources are their main advantages. These sources don’t produce hazardous waste or release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere like fossil fuels and nuclear power.

Furthermore, as traditional energy sources become more expensively comparable to renewable energy sources, a wider range of consumers and states can now access renewable energy. Despite that, nuclear energy has come to light in Pakistan as a potential solution to the state’s energy crisis. Pakistan’s energy mix has become more diverse, and its reliance on fossil fuels has decreased as a result of the operational nuclear power plants. However, the government of Pakistan has set a goal for the use of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, to account for 60% of the nation’s total energy mix by 2030.

For Pakistan to have a sustainable energy future, it is essential to develop both nuclear energy and renewable energy sources.

Thus, future energy-related changes in Pakistan are anticipated to be significant. The government must put in place measures to promote the growth of renewable energy, like feed-in tariffs and net metering, in order to meet this goal.

Simultaneously, the dependability and stability of nuclear energy are two of its most important benefits. As opposed to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, which depend on the weather, nuclear power plants can run at full capacity for extended periods of time, ensuring a steady supply of electricity. In addition to emitting fewer greenhouse gases and being more environmentally friendly than fossil fuels, nuclear energy is a desirable option for halting climate change.

However, there are many significant problems with nuclear energy as well, such as risks associated with proliferation, management of waste, and safety issues.

Complex machines like nuclear power plants need highly trained operators and cutting-edge technology to run safely.

As evidenced by the Chornobyl and Fukushima accidents, a single malfunction can have disastrous effects. There are serious safety concerns due to Pakistan’s outdated power infrastructure and a shortage of trained personnel.

Similarly, another important concern for nuclear energy is the safe disposal of nuclear waste. Because it is highly radioactive, nuclear waste is dangerous for living things’ health. The government has taken action to address the issues, including investing in nuclear safety, establishing a nuclear regulatory authority, and creating a national strategy for the disposal of radioactive waste. Pakistan has also ratified international treaties and agreements on nuclear security, non-proliferation, and security as a symbol of its commitment to the peaceful use of nuclear technology.

Macron’s Visit & Assessing France’s China Diplomacy

By
Saher Liaqat
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EU-China relations have remained strained since the EU-China Summit in April last year, which the EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell called the “dialogue of the deaf.” China’s retaliation to EU sanctions on Russia, trade measures against the single market, humanitarian issues in Hongkong and Xinjiang, and its stance on the Ukraine conflict have further complicated the two. However, despite these challenges, the EU remained committed to engaging and cooperating with China due to its crucial role in addressing global issues. The EU’s approach towards China, outlined in the “Strategic Outlook” Joint Communication from March 2019, remains relevant.

In recent months, Beijing has welcomed many European dignitaries. Last November, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Beijing following the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, followed by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to China on March 31st this year. The recent visit of French President Emmanuel Macron, escorted by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to China, from April 5th -7th, however, has ruffled feathers of a possible realignment of the EU towards Beijing.

Since assuming office, French President Emmanuel Macron has prioritized bolstering economic and cultural ties with China. Macron deemed the economic ties with Beijing crucial for the country’s economic progress and global impact. During Macron’s first official visit to China in 2018, the Two countries signed multiple agreements regarding nuclear energy, agriculture, and tourism. Macron also urged China to address market access and trade imbalance issues. Despite challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic and France’s initial stance on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Sino-French economic ties became stronger. In 2019, China became the biggest foreign investor in France, and the two countries are cooperating in various avenues, such as intellectual property rights, green finance, and civil aviation.

France and China are major global trade players and significant export markets for each other. In 2021, trade volumes between the two countries reached an all-time high.

However, the total value of goods traded between China and France in 2022 was US$81.33 billion, a decrease of 4.4 percent compared to the same period in 2021, with a reduction of US$3.84 billion.

During his recent visit to China, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the importance of Western engagement with China to prevent further tensions and divisions among global powers. The mediation of the Ukraine war has remained a significant feature of Macron’s visit as he stressed the need to end the crisis and return to the negotiating table.

Macron was deeply impressed with China’s emerging role as a global mediator after Beijing brokered the Saudi-Iran deal and expressed that Beijing should also take a central role in resolving the Ukraine crisis.

President Xi has also expressed interest in mediating the Ukrainian conflict. As part of this commitment, both nations have pledged to assist in resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine through dialogue. They also called on the international community to address the various spillover effects of the crisis, such as those in food, energy, finance, transportation, and other areas, and to minimize its negative impact, particularly on developing countries.

In a joint statement, both countries have embarked on a new level of Sino-French ties by reinforcing political dialogue and promoting mutual political confidence, endorsing global security and stability, promoting economic interactions, encouraging people-to-people exchanges, and proclaiming a joint response to global challenges.

France and China have emphasized the significance of maintaining high-level contacts and dialogues to advance bilateral cooperation.

The leadership from France and China agreed to continue their annual meetings and to hold another session of their strategic dialogues, economic and financial dialogues, and people-to-people exchanges by the end of the year.

They have reiterated their dedication to creating a comprehensive strategic partnership built on mutual respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty, and critical interests. Furthermore, they have concurred to intensify talks on strategic matters and strengthen their mutual comprehension of international and regional security concerns.

France and China have also accentuated their support for strengthening the international multilateral system under the patronage of the United Nations. They have confirmed their commitment to promoting the three pillars of the Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation in a balanced manner. The two countries condemned any military attack on nuclear power plants or other peaceful nuclear facilities. They backed the International Atomic Energy Agency’s efforts to maintain their safety and security. Furthermore, they agreed to retain their discussions on strategic and cyber issues, affirmed their commitment to finding a political and diplomatic resolution to the nuclear issue of Iran, and agreed to continue close consultations on the situation in the Korean Peninsula.

In line with their commitment to work together to address global challenges, both countries are dedicated to ensuring global food supply chain stability, supporting countries hardest hit by the food crisis, and promoting sustainable food systems. They also endorsed a rules-based, WTO-centered multilateral trading system. They pledged to cooperate to help to develop and access financing to developing countries to accelerate their energy and climate transition. Additionally, they agreed to enhance their cooperation within the G20 and assist in implementing the Common Framework for Debt Treatments, embraced by Paris Club and the G20. By calling for increased action in channeling special drawing rights (SDR), both committed to the fight against climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation.

French President Emmanuel Macron has emphasized the need for Europe to reduce its reliance on the United States and to develop its strategic autonomy. His statement that Europe should not blindly follow the US and avoid becoming involved in external crises, likely referencing Taiwan, has led some to accuse him of undermining the trans-Atlantic stance against China. However, Macron clarified that France still supports the current status quo in Taiwan. He called for the EU to implement a “strategic autonomy” policy and become a “third pole” alongside China and the US, emphasizing that Europe must avoid becoming embroiled in its crises.

To recap, while France’s focus on strengthening economic ties with China could trigger a possible geopolitical realignment within the EU regarding its China policy, it remains contingent upon the peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis that has remained the sticking point of the recent visit.

The EU’s stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its differences with China over various issues have created a complex and challenging relationship that requires careful navigation.

ISKP’s Presence in Afghanistan: A Growing Concern for Taliban

By
Abu Hurrairah Abbasi
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On March 9, 2023, an incident occurred in Mazar-i-Sharif where a suicide bomber detonated himself within the second-floor office of Mohammad Dawood Muzammil, who serves as the Taliban governor of Balkh province in Afghanistan.

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has accepted responsibility for the assassination of a senior member of the Taliban administration.‎

In late 2022, Muzammil was transferred from his position as governor of Nangarhar to Balkh after having spearheaded a campaign against ISKP. Previously, the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) had caused the demise of Abdul Haq Abu Omar, who held the position of police commander for Badakhshan province within the Taliban and a Taliban judge located in Jalalabad. The recent homicides have escalated the conflict between the Taliban and ISKP to a new level, with a significant advantage in favor of the latter.‎

Following the Taliban’s assumption of power in August 2021, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has emerged as a potent terrorist organization in Afghanistan. The ISKP, a Sunni organization akin to the Taliban, has repeatedly been launching assaults that directly threaten the Taliban’s power. Between August 2021 and September 2022, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) executed almost 16 attacks against the minority Shia Hazara community in various locations, including places of worship, schools, and workplaces. These attacks resulted in the deaths of over 700 individuals. Additionally, an attack on a Sikh Gurdwara further undermined the Taliban’s commitment to ensuring the safety of all ethnic groups within the country. The events that occurred in September 2022 targeting the embassy of Russia, and in December 2022, targeting the embassy of Pakistan and a hotel accommodating Chinese diplomats and executives, appear to undermine the security measures implemented by the Taliban to safeguard the limited number of countries that maintain their embassies in Kabul.‎

The elimination of Taliban soldiers and officials, as well as the perpetuation of assaults in close proximity to Taliban offices, represent a direct challenge to the Islamic Emirate. This conveys the notion that, ultimately, ISKP may become an existential challenge to the Taliban.‎

From August 2021 onwards, the Taliban has exhibited a range of responses to the presence of ISKP on Afghan soil, including denying its existence and portraying the group as feeble and insignificant. The Taliban administration has declined any foreign help addressing the ISKP issue, emphasizing its self-sufficiency in handling the matter. Consistently, after an ISKP assault, the Taliban conducts a raid on an ISKP safe haven located in Kabul or other areas, eliminating the purported culprits responsible for the attacks. The elimination of Qari Fateh, purportedly the intelligence head of ISKP, during a Taliban operation in Kabul in February 2023 was deemed a triumph in addressing the assaults on the diplomatic establishments of Russia, Pakistan, and China. In the initial month of 2023, eight members of the ISKP were reported to have been eliminated in the provinces of Kabul and Nimroz. According to a representative of the Taliban, the individuals killed were allegedly involved in the perpetration of attacks on a hotel in Kabul, the Embassy of Pakistan, and the airport in Kabul.‎

However, despite the Taliban’s public assertions that they are in charge, the group is uneasy about ISKP’s inevitable rise to power. International evaluations indicate that in the roughly 18 months from August 2021, ISKP’s strength has increased from 3,000 to 6,000, nearly doubling. The group’s presence in each of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces was certified by the UN representative to Afghanistan in November 2021. Evidently, the organization’s potential has not been much diminished by the numerous raids by Taliban soldiers that reportedly result in the deaths of ISKP members. At least once in early March, ISKP asserted that the Taliban raids that were widely reported upon were phony, just as the execution of the Taliban’s captive members of the group.‎

The failure of the Taliban to stop the violence of the ISKP can be broadly characterized as the failure of a former insurgent force to become a successful counterinsurgent force. On another level, the capacity issue might also be brought on by the connections a significant Taliban faction has with the ISKP. Former Afghan intelligence officers believe the Haqqani Network’s historical ties to the ISKP have persisted. The Interior Ministry is under the supervision of Sirajuddin Haqqani, and the Haqqanis are a strong political force in the Islamic Emirate. The connection may have forced the Islamic Emirate to carry out showy raids and make dubious claims about weakening the ISKP.‎

Furthermore, the power struggle between the Haqqani Network and the Taliban’s top leadership based in Kandahar may potentially be facilitating the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISK-P) in executing significant attacks, such as the assassination of Balkh governor Muzammil. Muzammil was affiliated with the Noorzai tribe, which bears a resemblance to the current Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, and exhibited unwavering loyalty. Towards the end of 2022, Akhundzada terminated the services of Qudratullah Abu Hamza, the governor of Balkh and a member of the Haqqani Network, and designated Muzammil as his successor. In 2021, Hamza, a Tajik individual, reportedly spearheaded Taliban military efforts to seize Mazar-i-Sharif. As per the statement made by the representative of the National Resistance Front, the replacement of Hamza may have incited discord within the Taliban, leading the Haqqanis to enable the ISKP assault on Muzammil potentially. This observation could elucidate the circumstance in which the suicide bomber successfully penetrated several layers of security to access the governor.    ‎

Despite the veracity of these narratives, the gradual consolidation and expansion of ISKP in the upcoming months is a significant possibility.

The ability of the Taliban to weaken ISKP has not been demonstrated, and they are not inclined to accept any external cooperation to enhance their capacity.

The statement above affirms the apprehensions articulated by neighboring nations that Afghanistan, under Taliban rule, may devolve into a secure refuge and springboard for terrorist activities.‎

The ultimate goal of ISKP extends beyond the geographical boundaries of Afghanistan. In the absence of a regional consensus-based approach, the region’s future may be characterized by instability and heightened levels of violence. So, to handle this situation efficiently, the Taliban Government should bring regional players to the table and ask for their help to maintain peace and stability in their territory.

Current US-China Bilateral Ties in Deep Freeze

By
Ambassador Syed Sajjad Haider
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President Xi has highlighted challenges arising out of America’s containment policy. Bilateral relations between China and the US seem to be not vibrant at present.

Reports suggest that President Joe Biden had sought a call with his Chinese counterpart President Xi to lessen tensions arising out of the balloon incident and the announcement on AUKUS( Beijing has accused the three countries of fueling an arms race on the provision of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia). He had expected that the conversation could take place after Xi had been re-elected President by the People’s Congress, which concluded in March of this year. The Chinese side is yet to respond. In the same vein, efforts by the US Secretary of Defence Austin to talk to his Chinese counterpart after the balloon shoot down by the US have not been productive. The incident also led to the cancellation of the visit of Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing.

The Blinken visit was aimed at promoting and bringing some normalcy following the Biden-Xi meeting at the G20 meeting in Bali, Indonesia in November 2022.  China must make clear its intention to continue to engage with the United States, the Secretary of State also said. An indication of rising tension is President Xi’s remarks that have named the US. “West led by the US have contained and suppressed us in a way, bringing challenges to our development”, he said. China has been under intense pressure from the slowing of its export market and economy of approximately three percent growth in the year 2022, the second worst annual growth in nearly half a century. Currently, the US remains China’s largest trading partner, however, China’s exports to the US were down by 15 percent, though its imports increased by around three percent.

On the military front, the US believes that China plans for an invasion of Taiwan. If this happens, the consequences of this adventurism will be lethal for both countries. Apparently, China will not aggravate the situation further. It doesn’t have the military capacity to overwhelm the island. It lacks the capability for bringing all kinds of support needed to occupy the island. Many also suspect that the Chinese strategy could be different, focusing on partially blockading the island, and cutting off its communication links.

Such blockades would deny key imports to the US. However, China would not achieve, rather would gain condemnation from the West. The economy will be badly affected, as they import 20 percent of medicines and medical supplies from the US. The American consumer electronics sector too would have a major problem as China is a crucial supplier of lithium batteries for mobile phones and electric vehicles. There would be an impact, too in other sectors of trade such as apparel, furniture, machinery, automobiles, telecom equipment, etc

In case some skirmishes occur, the consequences for China could be dangerous First, China is dependent on importing energy resources and Second it imports vast quantities of food.

Some of the oil and gas vulnerability will also be reduced by the pipeline delivery between China and suppliers in Central Asia and Russia. Around 80 percent of China’s imported oil transits through the Indian Ocean from all over the world, especially from the Middle East.

Real vulnerability will happen in the area of food for domestic consumption as China is the world’s largest importer of poultry, meat, dairy products, as well as animal feed. Despite tensions in the region, it is still the largest agricultural export market in the US. As China’s population increases in number this vulnerability will cause severe strain on the food supply.

The Chinese may have the capacity to keep the US at a safe distance from the mainland and Taiwan, but the US navy remains the most challenging and formidable power in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. For many decades China has been promoting the idea of self-reliance and supply chain resilience. China now leads the world in advanced technologies relating to space, robotics, energy, the environment, biotechnology, and AI, etc.

China expects that it will get over its external and internal challenges by making advancements and development of its science and technology with an emphasis on self-reliance and reducing its dependency on global supply chains.

Any war over the Taiwan issue would unfold in a different way. China remains inter-dependent on the rest of the world. Whether it will decide on going to war path is something no one can foretell. China has always been a peace-loving country. So the onus is for the US to spell out real intention  towards China.

America seems to be on a thorny crusade right now. Messing with China can impact the entire European economy. And that the US does not want to happen. There are no effective tools to reach China except to promote peace in the region and beyond.

Beyond Power Games: A New Approach to Restoring Human Security in the Middle East

By
Musfirah Rashid
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Middle Eastern region presents an unsettling picture of Human Security. Since the dawn of the Cold War the region remains a new theater of unrest, from Civil war to inter-state conflicts prevails a scary security image. According to Global Security Index 2022, the security conditions of the region are terrifying. The worst-performing state includes Yemen, Syria, and Palestine.

The recent growth of a few countries is often shown as a positive picture but that didn’t make the whole Middle East peaceful.

According to estimates, Yemen is projected to have 21 million people that need humanitarian aid and protection by the end of 2023. People are denied their basic rights. Yemen accounted for one of the five nations with the worst rankings for women’s political emancipation, economic involvement, and educational attainment in 2021. Additionally, it came in third-to-last place out of 170 nations in the Global Women Peace and Security Index for 2021–2022. Syria and Palestine depict quite similar pictures. The world community needs to take a stand to ensure human safety and security.

As new events unfold in the region, there is a ray of hope that the deteriorating human security can be restored. A masterstroke by Chinese President Xi Jinping, forging the historic rapprochement between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, proved to be a fresh breeze in the Middle Eastern region.

The intense war is a result of enduring animosity between Iran and Saudi Arabia, resulting in dilapidated human security. The blame game is used for insurgencies and backing different non-state actors only affects the lives of those living there. Global actors have always fanned animosity between these two Middle Eastern nations by perusing their regional ambitions as a “zero-sum” game. China brokered the deal to start a new wave of debate on how the future relations between the Middle Eastern region will pave out. Immediately, after the announcement of opening embassies, Saudi Arabia divulges, a government initiative to discontinue eight years of long-standing war in Yemen. Saudi proclamation came as fresh air for the people living in all the states involved.

Now is the time and space for global actors to think beyond power games and rather than involving in competition they should rivet on the stability and development in the region. America the leading global power and a close ally of Saudi Arabia should craft its policy that aligns with its peace initiative. The humanitarian aid gap that leaves Yemen’s displaced to fend for themselves, itches for a new turn.

The grim image of humanitarian assistance in 2023, of the $4.3 billion the UN is requesting, donors only pledged $1.2 billion at a conference at the end of February.

WFP curtailed both the volume of food it dispenses and the frequency with which it does so due to the funding crunch.  The words and numbers are scary but the on-ground reality is even scarier. As the new door opens for negotiations and collaboration, we defiantly should not miss this opportunity to revive human security before the region made a graveyard.

Analyzing China’s Peace Plan for Ukraine Crisis

By
Yusra Azam
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China’s peace plan for Ukraine, which was proposed in February 2023, is a 12-point proposal aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine through diplomatic means. The plan includes proposals for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of foreign forces, the establishment of a demilitarized zone, and the formation of a national unity government.

China has mainly played a diplomatic role in the conflict, but if the parties to the conflict agree to engage it more, China might play a more important role in finding a solution.

However, it is important to note that any resolution to the Ukraine conflict would ultimately need to be agreed upon by the conflicting parties themselves and would require a willingness to engage in dialogue and make compromises. The success of any peace plan would depend on the willingness of the conflicting parties to engage in negotiations and make compromises, as well as the involvement of other key stakeholders such as the United States and the European Union.

The principles of non-interference in the domestic affairs of other countries and upholding neutrality in international disputes have long been guiding principles for China’s foreign policy. The “Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence,” as this policy is known, were first stated by China in the 1950s and have since served as a foundational concept for Chinese foreign policy. By this principle, China has usually sought to uphold neutrality in disputes involving other countries and to advance diplomatic efforts to settle disputes peacefully. But China may choose sides in some conflicts if it believes that its national interests are at stake, so it is essential to keep in mind that China’s foreign policy is not always purely neutral. For instance, China has backed Pakistan in conflicts with India and has backed North Korea in its conflict with South Korea and the United States.

As for the Ukraine crisis, China has shown support for Russia in the informational and, secondarily, diplomatic realms. China has cooperated with Russia in terms of security though it didn’t give any direct military assistance to Russia.

How much is this Peace Plan Feasible?

The feasibility of China’s 12-point peace plan for Ukraine with certainty. However, the feasibility of any peace plan depends on a variety of factors, including the willingness of the conflicting parties to engage in dialogue and make compromises, the involvement of other key stakeholders, and the effectiveness of the proposed measures.

The conflict in Ukraine is a complex and long-standing issue, and any efforts to resolve it must consider the interests and concerns of all parties involved. The feasibility of China’s peace plan will depend on how well the proposed measures address the underlying issues that led to the conflict, and how well they are received by the conflicting parties.

It is worth noting that China is a major global power with significant influence in international affairs. As such, its involvement in efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine could be a positive development, particularly if it helps to bring the conflicting parties to the negotiating table and facilitates productive dialogue and compromise. However, the conflict in Ukraine is a deeply entrenched issue that has defied resolution for many years, and any peace plan will face significant challenges and obstacles. Ultimately, the success of China’s 12-point peace plan will depend on a variety of factors, including the commitment and cooperation of all parties involved, the effectiveness of the proposed measures, and the ability of the international community to provide support and assistance as needed.

Ukrainians think that China has come late in proposing the peace plan officially, they want their territory back which is being invaded by Russia although Russia is denying to give those territories back to Ukraine as they have done referendums in those territories and the people there want to be part of Russia, the results of these referendums are not being accepted by the International community. So, if Russia does not give back those territories to Ukraine, then it is difficult to solve the whole conflict.

Ukraine has not explicitly rejected China’s efforts to position itself as a potential mediator in the conflict between Russia and that state.

The first principle of the Chinese proposal, which calls for respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states, was supported by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

But he said that any peace agreement that did not lead to a complete Russian departure from all of the Ukrainian land had been doomed to failure.

Why can’t China stain its relationship with Russia?

China and Russia have a long history of diplomatic, economic, and military cooperation, and their relationship is based on mutual interests and respect. Both countries have common goals and share similar positions on a range of issues in global politics, such as opposition to the U.S. global dominance and support for multipolar world order.

Furthermore, China and Russia have deep economic ties, particularly in the energy sector, and have been working together to advance their strategic interests through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union.

Given these factors, it would not be in China’s interest to risk damaging its relationship with Russia. While there may be differences and occasional disagreements between the two countries, they have shown a willingness to resolve them through dialogue and cooperation. Therefore, China is unlikely to take actions that could significantly damage its relationship with Russia. China may not want to stain its relationship with Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian war due to a few factors;

  1. Strategic Interests: China has strategic interests in maintaining a strong relationship with Russia, including economic, energy, and security ties. These interests could be jeopardized if China were to take a strong stance against Russia in the conflict.
  2. Non-Interference Policy: China has a long-standing policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. This policy means that China is unlikely to take sides in conflicts like the Russo-Ukrainian war, as doing so could be seen as interfering in the affairs of another country.
  3. Ukraine is not a strategic partner: While China has diplomatic ties with Ukraine, it does not have the same level of strategic partnership with Ukraine as it does with Russia. China’s economic ties with Ukraine are relatively small compared to its ties with Russia.

Conclusion:

China has always shown neutrality in the Ukraine Crisis but if we dig more into this matter then we can find that China is not explicitly neutral. Like every other state China is also concerned about its national interest and does not want to take any sort of damage regarding its economy as discussed above China does have a great economic interest in Russia if the war continues then it will also affect the economy of both counties. Other than economic interests China is also against Western influence and Russia also shares the same thought so it is likely for these two states to support each other in some way. China’s Peace Plan for this ongoing conflict can only come in handy if both parties agree to compromise and show cooperation but Ukraine wants its territory back which Russia is not willing to do.

Israel΄s Blatant Violation of Status Quo Agreement

By
Tayyaba Khurshid
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Within the framework of efforts and discussions aimed at reaching a lasting and peaceful resolution between Israel and Palestine, Jerusalem has presented itself as the most arduous issue among those that were deferred for future negotiation following the Oslo Accords.

The Al-Aqsa Mosque/al-Haram al-Sharif has emerged as the primary impediment in the stalemate, exacerbated by Israel’s persistent and recurrent breaches of the Status Quo in Jerusalem.

The establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 on Palestinian territory, following the British mandate and a decision to grant the Jews land to settle, has been a source of conflict between the Arab world, Palestine and  Israel with regard to the rights of Palestinians over the occupied territory. Over time, subsequent wars have resulted in Israel gaining more territory, while the Arab world later prioritized its own interests, leaving the people of Palestine without support. The Oslo Accord and Abraham Accord have led to the normalization of relations between Arab states and Israel, yet without addressing the ongoing suffering of Palestinians. Recent events, such as the Israeli forces’ attack on worshipers offering prayers in Al-Aqsa Mosque, have drawn international condemnation for their brutality against innocent people. Israeli forces reportedly rushed into the mosque, deploying stun grenades, tear gas, sponge-tipped bullets, and using batons and rifle butts to beat worshipers, resulting in the injury of 31 Palestinians and the arrest and torture of nearly 450 men.

The Al-Aqsa Mosque holds tremendous significance for Muslims across the globe, and it serves as a place of worship for Palestinians. Under the Status Quo arrangement, the administration of Al-Aqsa Mosque rests with a Muslim entity, the Jerusalem Islamic Waqf, which is under the guardianship of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. This custodianship has been frequently reasserted and acknowledged by the global community, including the United Nations, UNESCO, the Arab League, the European Union, Russia, and the United States. Additionally, it was formally recognized in the 1994 peace treaty between Jordan and Israel. However, the Israeli victory in the 1967 war and its subsequent occupation of Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip enabled it to unilaterally claim control over Eastern Jerusalem, where the Al-Aqsa Mosque is situated. In its pursuit of colonial ambitions, Israel implemented domestic laws that have been condemned by the United Nations Security Council as a violation of international law. Despite the such condemnation, Israel remains steadfast in its pursuit of these aspirations, and in 1980, it declared Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. The UN passed Resolution 478, deeming this move a blatant violation of international law . Contrary to the terms of the Status Quo Agreement after the occupation of East Jerusalem in 1967, the Israeli authorities seized control of the al-Buraq Wall and confiscated the keys to the al-Magharbeh Gate.

They also razed the Moroccan Quarter, which had stood since the 12th century and comprised of 135 houses and three mosques. In its place, they constructed what is now known as the Western Plaza.

Gradually from occasional breaches and violations of the agreement, Israel moved on further and restored access to the site to Jews and another non-Muslims contrary to the Status quo since August 2003.

The recent attack on worshippers is again a violation of the agreement. The Israeli occupation forces currently control the entrance of both Muslims and non-Muslims to the Temple Mount site, with non-Muslims only allowed to enter through one gate.

Temple Mount groups and Israeli extremists also enter from this gate, despite regulations banning military fatigues. Since 2003 Israeli forces have not only limited access of Muslim worshippers to the Holy Site and even went as far as prohibiting Palestinian Muslims from entering their holy site while allowing exclusive access to Jews.

The Al-Aqsa compound used to be a Muslim holy site that non-Muslims are only allowed to visit during regulated hours. However, there have been attempts by Temple Mount activists, including Israeli government officials, to secure the right to hold Jewish prayers at the site, despite the prohibition on non-Muslim prayers. These attempts are seen by Muslims and Palestinians as provocative and a violation of the Status Quo, arousing fears of an Israeli partition plan for the holy site. Along with that, under the Status Quo, the Waqf is responsible for excavations and maintenance of the Al-Aqsa Mosque site, but Israel has conducted illegal excavations and prohibited tractors and trucks from operating on the site under Waqf supervision. Additionally, the Israeli occupation forces have repeatedly attacked the site, desecrating the prayer hall and intimidating worshippers.

The settler-colonial agenda of Israel is the driving force behind these breaches of the Status Quo, as evidenced by the annual “flag march” celebrating Israel’s occupation of the eastern part of Jerusalem, during which Israeli settlers were allowed to storm into Al-Aqsa, raising Israeli flags, and recite Jewish prayers. Hence, the recent attack on worshippers is a continuous practice of Israeli forces since their occupation of East Jerusalem. It highlights Israel’s ambition to have full control over the area and to establish the third temple. As per the Jewish tradition, the first and second temples were erected at the site, and it is believed that the arrival of the Messiah will witness the rebuilding of the third temple at the same location. Orthodox Jewish law staunchly prohibits Jews from visiting the site as they perceive it as sacred land. Nevertheless, several Zionist religious organizations supported by eminent personalities from the Israeli political landscape have emerged with the principal aim of expediting the construction of the temple and guaranteeing Jewish rights to pray on the Mount.

The international community has expressed concern over this incident and called on Israel to halt the ongoing brutality against innocent individuals.

The actions of the Israeli authorities in East Jerusalem, including their seizure of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and other historical sites, are a gross violation of international law and have no legal or moral basis. It is imperative that the international community takes swift and decisive action to hold Israel accountable for its actions and ensure the preservation of these holy sites for future generations. The Al-Aqsa Mosque must remain under Palestinian control as per the Status Quo arrangement and Israel must respect the religious affiliation of Palestinean people towards Al-Aqsa.

War in Ukraine: The Fallouts and Lessons

By
Zirwah Yousaf
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0

A year ago, Russian forces invaded Ukraine and with no end in sight, the war continues even today. The war had various consequences for Russia, Ukraine, and NATO, but it will be broadly impacting the global economy too. Despite the visible casualties, no side is apparently giving up and we have no idea how this is going to end. The war most likely seems to continue probably at a slower pace or turn into a frozen conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Witnessing no negotiation strategies on the way, the war is more likely to escalate, and the recent example of the Afghan war shows how citizens of a war-torn state lose the essence of their lives.

The war in Ukraine has many consequences which have directly impacted Ukraine and Russia and indirectly the whole globe. However, there are many key takeaways from the ongoing war which can be a warning for other strategically vulnerable states as well.

There are many questions concerning global peace and economy to which the answers are still unknown. The war in Ukraine has left the world a more perilous place. Despite Fukuyama’s idea of ‘the end of history’, the world has witnessed that bellicose jingoism is not an ancient practice but a bitter present reality. This war has not only threatened the current global peace but also has become one for the future as it has made the possession of nuclear weapons more attractive for the states in general. This tension in the globe escalates with the massive economic challenges faced by the world.

The world was slowly recovering from the global pandemic when it was hit by a huge energy shock due to the war in Ukraine. For decades, Europe relied on the energy from USSR and later Russia, and it was assumed that this massive reliance would be refraining Russia from taking aggressive measures, however, the reality turned out to be otherwise. Russia, despite being the largest energy exporter to Europe, invaded Ukraine and as a result, the west boycotted Russian energy, but transitioning away from Russian energy would not be easy for Europe. No doubt, alternatives like Liquefied Natural Gas are filling the gap yet cannot compete with the prices of dry gas which as a result led to global inflation which impacted underdeveloped countries more. Flipping the side of the same coin, decreased Russian exports to Europe impacted the domestic revenue of Russia as well which is hampering the political influence of the present Russian government inside the state as well.

The Russian economy has been led heavily by oil and gas exports and even if the war stops, the West is less likely to return to Russia because the perils of Russian aggression are too high. Owing to the sudden shift in global market preferences, the world is facing the added pressure of de-globalization due to global price hikes and inflation. This will also be the main cause of changed supply-chain policies throughout the world and also a visible surge in global defense spending will be witnessed due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

States that were spending more on human development will once again focus on strengthening their traditional security, to overcome the vulnerability that Ukraine is in.

No doubt, the Russian image as a military power has been sternly tarnished and even if it remains on the battlefield for the years to come, it has been weakened. One of the biggest reasons was Russia using heavy old weapons like tanks instead of swift modern weapons. There have been different opinions on what the future of Russia would be and more than the economic collapse, in case the war in Ukraine continues a huge chance of Russia’s internal collapse in form of a civil war or a political disintegration is foreseen. This also reminisces the position of the USSR in the cold war which led to its political and economic downfall. However, these are all speculations as Russia being a nuclear power and aware of its national security is equally dangerous for the world and the perils might exacerbate in case of Russian failure in the war in Ukraine.

Moving ahead of the consequences which are more intense for Eastern Europe as compared to the rest of the world, the war in Ukraine can be termed as a cautionary anecdote for states because there are many lessons the states can learn from it if they want to. As discussed earlier, economic dependence on any state can be a dicey business and for that matter, states should be open to multiple options for trade to survive such unforeseen situations. Today, a strong economy and robust relationships in the world give more advantages to states at war, which implies that states need to work on achieving effective long-term economic and foreign policies.

Apart from the economy, traditional security when discussing war cannot be neglected. The battlefield situation shows that modern technology including satellites played a salient role in the war and this visibly overshadowed the role of older heavy machinery which is more exposed in such wars. The Turkish drones and Western anti-tank weapons used to attack Russian tanks flipped the idea of possessing heavy weapons for state security stressing the importance of modern weapons. As a result, the states need to acquire modern state-of-the-art technology to insure national security and maintain deterrence. Along with that, Russian troops according to some studies were neither trained nor briefed properly and many of them did not know the actual cause of the war. This strategic loophole is a warning as well as an eye-opener for the states that are prone to wars to invest in proper training and briefing of their soldiers to avoid chaos.

Acquiring modern technology, and training the army is however only halfway through it. Turning the pages of history, we find out that after the disintegration of the USSR, Ukraine became an independent country. This implies that it should have worked on its internal and external security which includes acquiring both conventional and nuclear weapons. However, under international pressure or influence, Ukraine signed Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1994 and removed nuclear deterrence from its national security as a strategic option in return for assured collective security by NATO when needed. At the time of need, reliance on external factors led Ukraine to pay through the nose.

Had Ukraine not given up on its nukes, the scenario due to the added deterrence would have been different today. This again emphasizes the importance of state security and deterrence with complete control within the state.

The war in Ukraine is in itself a message for Pakistan too. Owing to the strategic depth of Pakistan with both internal and external security threats, Pakistan needs to establish and strengthen both hard and soft power. As emphasized earlier, the economic fallouts of this war have shaken the entire world, and Pakistan due to various other factors had to face a stronger jolt from this global economic recession. Resultantly Pakistan needs to work on its economy keeping in view the trade deficit, and debt trap, by finding multiple sources of increasing the state revenue. Moreover, Pakistan needs to try to get rid of economic dependence, even on its closest friends, and stand on its own to be able to face any unforeseen situations.

Along with the economic growth, Pakistan needs to focus on its military strength as well. Pakistan during the Indo-Pak war of 1971 has already learnt its lessons by relying on external help from US Seventh Fleet’s Task Force 74. Strengthening the military by acquiring modern weapons with all control in hand and no reliance on any state for help along with trained officers has become essential for Pakistan. Pakistan has an enemy in the neighborhood and it has to bring its military strength both conventional and non-conventional to par with modern standards. However, balancing the power does not promote waging a war, but promises national security by deterring the enemy at the western and eastern borders as well as within the country.

To conclude, the war has seen many escalations in the name of Western military assistance to Ukraine or switching to more powerful weapons which are only changing the war instead of ending it.

Out of all the fallouts from economic losses and breach of peace, Russia being a nuclear state and its possibility to use these weapons can be the most worrisome consequence of this war.

For most of the world, after the cold war, the term war had become an abstract reality that was least expected to occur due to globalization and the liberal world order. However, the war in Ukraine struck the world with the harsh reality of armed aggression and violence, which brings with it different lessons for other states. Although reshaping the military and technology is not easy, it has become the need of time for the world. This is because it heavily depends on the perception of the future of war which in simple terms means connecting the national economy with security. This as a result requires some agonizing policy decisions and contemplation on the part of major global actors as well as individual states, which will be impacting global peace and security in the years to come.

Nuclear Energy: A Hopeful Sign in Addressing Pakistan’s Energy Challenge

By
Usman Ali khan
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Nuclear power forms the backbone of low-carbon electricity generation. Alongside renewables, energy efficiency, and other innovative technologies, nuclear can make a significant contribution to achieving sustainable development goals while enhancing energy security.

Presently, Asia is leading the way in bringing new Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) online. According to the World Nuclear Association, Asian countries continue to dominate the market for building new NPPs. Two-thirds of the 61 reactors under construction around the world are being built in Asia. As Pakistan is facing severe energy crises, where, worsening blackouts are the latest manifestation of Pakistan’s economic distress. Such blackouts are becoming increasingly common.

Pakistan has various options to meet the growing demand for electricity i.e., indigenous coal, hydro, nuclear, and renewables. Picking the right combination of the future energy mix of a country is calculated based on a thorough comparative assessment of these technologies.

Indigenous available fuels are almost always given the highest priority if they are either sustainable or abundantly available to capitalize on in the long term.

During the year 2019 to 2020, 19 percent of Pakistan’s electricity was generated by four coal-fired power plants constructed under the umbrella of the CPEC project. These include CPEC 4.62 GW of coal-fired generation including the 1320 MW Huaneng Shandong Ruyi-Sahiwal Coal Power Plant, 1320 MW Port Qasim Coal Fired Power Plant, 1320 MW HubCo Coal Fired Power Plant, and 660 MW Engro Thar Coal Power Plant.

Nuclear energy has been a source of power for many countries for several decades and received increased attention in recent years due to its reliability and cost-effectiveness. In view of the looming energy crisis and the increasing cost of using fossil fuels to supply the country’s energy requirements, Pakistan sees nuclear energy as a viable option that can be employed to meet the rising energy demands. It is so because Pakistan is already relying excessively on coal-fired power plants which are volatile options considering the climate crisis and the environmental cost of carbon emission. Nuclear energy is a clean and cost-effective source of power that offers several benefits over traditional fossil fuels and renewable sources. Favorable cost economics, coupled with freedom from the import dependence on fossil fuels, make nuclear power more attractive for fulfilling the rising energy deficit. Moreover, unlike coal and natural gas, it emits very little carbon dioxide emissions. Further, once built, NPPs require very low foreign exchange for the import of fuel.

Pakistan has been utilizing nuclear technology for energy generation for five decades, in turn, providing clean and cost-effective energy to the nation.

Pakistan made an entry into the nuclear power club in 1972 when the first unit of electricity was sent to the Karachi grid from 137 PWR type KANNUP. Currently, there are six NPPs operating at two sites in the country which include two units of KANNUP (K-2, K-3) and four units of Chashma NPPs (C-1, C-2, C-3 & C-4). At present, the total nuclear-installed capacity is 3530 MW. Four units of Chashma are the best electricity-generating plants in terms of endurance and availability. Needless to mention, the dedication of Pakistani scientists is commendable for reasons that most plants are still operating after completing their design life with perfect safety. C-2 and C-4 made a national record for continuous longest operation for over one year. During the period of 2021, capacity factors of C-1, C-2, C-3, and C-4 were 86%, 98.7%, 91.3%, and 78.7% respectively which was well above the average of capacity factors of thermal power plants in the country. All this is the reflection of the solid foundations of a strong, viable, safe, and secure nuclear power program in Pakistan. Also, Nuclear power contributed to 8.4 percent of Pakistan’s total power generation between 2020 and 2021. The average tariff of operational NPPs for the analysis period is about 12.2/kWh, which is less than LNG and coal-fired power plants in the country.

The total power generation of the NTDC system in the month of February 2020 was about 7 billion units which increased by 16% to 8.1 billion units in the same month of the current year. Similarly, as per the data shared by National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), domestic nuclear energy production resulted in substantial savings compared to importing non-nuclear energy in 2022. After accounting for loan installments on NPPs, Pakistan saved $3 billion compared to importing oil, $2.2 billion in importing natural gas, and $1.6 billion in importing coal. Along with this, nuclear energy is an efficient source that provides large-scale power reliably without the fear of intermittency unlike wind and solar power. Nuclear energy has the potential to generate energy 90% of the time as opposed to wind and solar which only generate energy 25-40 percent of the time.

Pakistan has great potential for nuclear technology collaborations. There is a need to attract international and national investments by private companies in Pakistan’s nuclear power program.

Therefore, the promising policy strategy for Pakistan’s rising energy demands and to reduce the harmful impacts of climate change that it faces lies in balancing the continuous development of its established renewable energy sector, while technologically and economically stimulating its nuclear energy sector.

Hence, for Pakistan, relying more on nuclear energy would substantially contribute to saving foreign exchange which will indirectly reduce the country’s dependence on imported fuel and provide cheaper energy to the national grid. Therefore, Pakistan must diversify its energy basket and seek out alternatives such as nuclear energy to meet its growing needs.

Unfortunately, in contemporary international politics, Pakistan has been consistently facing discrimination in the field of nuclear science and technology. Pakistan’s civilian energy program has contributed to its socio-economic uplift and a more comprehensive approach is needed to utilize this potential for the country’s economic growth. Furthermore, there is ample room available for Pakistan to enhance its nuclear power generation capacity to meet growing energy demands. In order to benefit from nuclear technology, country-specific discrimination against Pakistan must end and Pakistan should not be denied its legitimate right to use civilian nuclear technology for peaceful uses including electricity generation.

Missile Fiasco and the Rising Threat Matrix in South Asia

By
Sana Hamid
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0

In yet another ‘technological glitch’, India once again misfired three missiles during their annual firing exercise in the Jaisalmer region of Rajasthan on March 24, 2022. The missiles fell into neighboring villages this time in India, causing loud explosions and producing large craters in the fields. Taking into account Operation Brasstacks of 1984-1985, in which India amassed some 500,000 troops near Pakistan’s border under the guise of conducting its largest-ever military exercise,

India’s latest misadventure sent shockwaves to the entire region whose security fabric is already tampered with due to the highly volatile nuclear environment.

The moments of March 9, a year ago, flashed back when the BrahMos cruise missile landed 124 km deep into Pakistani territory traveling 3 minutes into Pakistani space. India attributed the accidental firing of a missile to a ‘technical malfunction’ during routine maintenance and later sacked three of its air force officers on account of violating Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) which led to the horrendous episode. The irresponsible firing of the missile while endangering human life and civilian property could have led to even more disastrous consequences as two airway routes were active with several commercial airlines operating in the area at that time. Pakistan had demonstrated exemplary restraint as a testament to its systemic maturity and unflinching commitment to peace as a responsible nuclear state but the egregious lack of technical prowess and procedural efficacy on the part of India is casting aspersions on an already festering security dilemma in the region.

From such accidental firings of nuclear-capable missiles to the theft and illegal smuggling of Uranium-The Diplomat reports that some 200 kg of nuclear and radioactive material has gone missing from  Indian facilities in the last two decades alone-security and safety of India’s weapons systems and the credibility of its command-and-control system gravely becomes the question of concern and speculation for the entire region and hence international community. In February 2023 eight people including 2 Indians were apprehended in Nepal for illegally possessing Uranium that has been reportedly smuggled from India, stoking fears regarding the existence of nuclear black markets with transnational links in India. Smuggling of this sort, if continued unhindered might end at the hands of militants which would consequently mean becoming the tool of terrorism and hence a final blow to any successes in the war against terrorism.  It is the need of time and requisite of peace, therefore that India addresses concerns regarding its security protocols and technical safeguards against all such incidents to avoid any strategic misadventure in the highly volatile nuclear environment of the region.

India’s Animus Dominandi is festering Security Dilemma in the region

India, specifically under the RSS-lead BJP regime is leaving no stone unturned to satisfy its insatiable desire for power (animus dominandi). Even if such aforementioned gestures are looked over as India’s callousness and inaptitude, such Indian offensives as that of the Balakot Strike (2019)- in which it confidently breached Pakistan’s territorial integrity sending some 12 Mirage-2000 fighters with Spice 2000 and Crystal Maze missiles into Pakistani airspace, to its own detriment-is emblematic of both the state’s hawkish policies and practice and also its utter disregard to the peace, security, and development of the region. It is also reflective of the structural, technological, and administrative loopholes and technical inefficacy daunting the entire Indian defense system. In the subsequent one-on-one air combat revered as Operation Swift Retort, not only Russian-available SU-30 AND Mig-21 were downed but India’s Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman had also been captured.

Pakistan, in the spirit of traversing the path of peace later released the captured pilot back to India but it is not possible for any one state to uphold its International Obligations concerning peace and regionalism specifically when others are continuously detracting to the course of hostility and belligerence.

Not only India but the entire world must acknowledge this today that any such misadventures might result in haphazard consequences for the entire region and the world, a result, as Pakistan reserves all the rights to act proportionately, specifically in instances where it is unaware of the payload that might follow such ‘technical glitches’ let alone the intentions of the transgressor. There is a need, therefore, that the International community to respond to the gravity of the situation accordingly, to tend to the volatility of the region, hindering peace and prosperity of the entire world.

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