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Revitalizing the Belt and Road Initiative: Exploring the Potential of China-Gulf Economic Cooperation

By
Muhammad Wali Jan
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1

At the China-Arab Summit and the China-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in December 2022, China and the Gulf States formed a new strategic partnership based on President Xi Jinping’s vision of win-win cooperation and a community with a shared future. These summits, attended by 10 Arab leaders, marked a milestone in Sino-Arab relations, with a focus on sustainable cooperation, solidarity, and economic development.

The ancient Silk Road has historically connected the Arab States and China, and the Belt and Road Initiative now presents an opportunity to strengthen cultural engagement, trade, innovation, and inclusive peace and development. President Xi’s vision sees the BRI as a means of creating a stronger China-Arab community with a shared future. The BRI partnership priorities align with the PRC-Gulf States relationship, aiming to improve infrastructure, logistics, energy supply, and investment. This multilateral partnership is a game changer, with the whole Gulf region set to benefit. “China’s “Economic Diplomacy” aims to grow trade and economic ties without political interference.

The cooperation between Gulf Cooperation Council’s  States and Beijing is based on economic interdependence.

China has been working to strengthen its relationships with the six member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, with particular reliance on China’s imports of oil from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman. Similarly, China relies on the Gulf countries for its energy security, with Saudi Arabia accounting for a significant portion of its crude oil import to China in recent years. Trade between China and the GCC has increased significantly over the years, with energy and markets for Chinese goods being the main drivers. The GCC states also offer investment opportunities for China in infrastructure, digital economies, manufacturing, and construction. Technology and facilities have further strengthened the ties between the Gulf region and China’s BRI.

The Gulf Cooperation Council is seeking foreign direct investment to meet local demands and integrate their economies into global supply chains, with recent summits offering the best opportunity for this. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also investing in new technologies to diversify their economies and create more jobs. In this pursuit of post-oil economic diversification, the Gulf States are increasingly turning to the East, with China being the most sustainable choice promoted by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The strategic engagement of the Gulf States with China is becoming more important in light of the dynamic international and regional situation.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provides a comprehensive framework for cooperation in the economy, trade, energy, and security between China and Saudi Arabia, supporting Saudi Arabia’s 2030 Vision.

This has ushered in a new era of economic interdependence and an inclusive strategic partnership between the two nations.

Furthermore, based on reports from Saudi state media, China and Saudi Arabia recently inked agreements worth approximately $30 billion. One of the agreements is expected to introduce high-tech complexes, cloud computing, and data centers to Saudi cities through Huawei Technologies. Saudi Arabia has been the primary beneficiary of China’s BRI investments in the Gulf region, amounting to $5.5 billion in deals, demonstrating Beijing’s long-term commitments and ambitions in the Middle East while limiting its investments in other countries due to geopolitical risks.

Since the announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative, Saudi Arabia has experienced consistent growth with Chinese foreign direct investment inflows and investments averaging $654 million in 2019. The Kuwaiti government also included a China-Kuwait BRI partnership in its Vision of Development.

China’s success story has influenced other Gulf countries to rely on Chinese support for socioeconomic growth and mutual progress.

During the China-Gulf Cooperation Council summit, President Xi Jinping urged GCC states to cooperate on advanced technologies such as 5G and 6G communication, artificial intelligence, big data, and high-tech start-ups. As a result, 20 Arab states have signed Belt and Road initiative cooperation agreements with China, Some joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and supported China’s GDI.

By virtue of the Belt and Road Initiative, the Gulf States have supported China’s Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI) as proactive approaches to boost their autonomous development capacity, socioeconomic progress, and the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The BRI has the potential to improve the China-Gulf partnership and mutual learning, providing benefits for both sides. More Arab countries are recognizing the chances offered by the BRI due to China’s reputation as a dependable Asian partner, leading to a new direction for this ambitious initiative. These opportunities will strengthen China’s relations with the Arab world, promote joint growth and security, foster future cooperation, and encourage civilizational dialogue.

IMF’s Financial Assistance to Ireland and Lessons for Pakistan

By
Ammar Hassan Sajjad
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0

Pakistan is faced with a politico-economic impasse and needs IMF’s financial assistance to avert an imminent financial crisis. The country has not been able to complete previous IMF programs as well which is why the mutual trust deficit has also widened. Pakistan, in order to, eliminate the existing trust deficit and avert a financial crisis needs to alter its modus operandi through politico-economic reforms.

Developing countries can learn from examples set by states such as Ireland that have successfully completed and benefitted from IMF programs in the past.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) came into existence with the Bretton Woods system and revolutionized the global economic system, thereafter. The purpose of the Fund was to promote international monetary cooperation, maintain a multilateral system of payment and ensure the availability of emergency financial assistance.

Such utility enabled the IMF to provide member states with the opportunity to borrow short-term loans and avoid financial disasters during times of recession. Thus, contributing to its effectiveness as an international regulatory authority as well. So far, several states have benefited from the IMF and case studies such as Ireland’s can be useful for Pakistan which continues to struggle in its relationship with the Fund.

Up until the last quarter of the 20th century, Ireland was far behind other European economies. However, tables turned quickly as Ireland transformed into a prosperous European economy. Irish citizens started enjoying low taxes, moderate pay, and increased job opportunities due to incoming multinational investment companies (Coca-Cola, Dell). The booming construction sector accounted for 12 percent of employment in Ireland and, subsequently, the Irish economy blossomed experiencing growth of more than six percent.

With the global financial crisis in 2007, Ireland’s growth bubble also exploded. Home buyers took more loans than they could pay back, properties were littered, and ‘ghost estates’ led to the complete collapse of the construction industry. Clueless stakeholders in Ireland, then, had to look towards the IMF and European Union for an immediate relief package.

Together the IMF and EU provided Ireland with 67.5 billion Euros as loans. The IMF provided Ireland with financial experts along with a multifaceted economic recovery plan. Also, as a part of a three-year recovery program, cuts in civil service, additional income tax, and taxes on vehicles were recommended to which the government complied and, consequently, achieved 8% GDP growth. Soon after, investment firms regained confidence, home prices improved and, by 2017, the unemployment rate went back to less than 7 percent. Irish government’s practice of taking IMF’s advice on the reconstruction of banks, balancing of government finances, and funds allocation for appropriate sectors is a practice that Pakistan’s government can also replicate.

Pakistan’s current financial situation is fragile and the country’s liquid foreign reserves which are constantly depleting stood at $10.14 billion on March 24. In such a volatile situation, IMF’s assistance will carry significant value. However, Pakistan’s case is not as simple since the Country is engulfed in severe politico-constitutional turmoil as well.

Since its membership, Pakistan has signed 23 agreements with the IMF, and no wonder the loans have turned out to be Dutch disease since the country has been involved in a vicious cycle of borrowing and spending to escape long-term economic solutions. Pakistan’s government is still busy in efforts to revive the IMF loan program worth $6.5 Billion in order to tackle the current financial crunch.

Pakistan and IMF are even finding it hard to reach a staff-level agreement. The fact remains that Pakistan would continue to struggle on the economic front until it gets rid of its credit-driven growth and makes fundamental politico-economic reforms.

With regard to economics, Pakistan has to move towards permanent solutions for wealth creation. Also, the country needs to get rid of domestic tax evasion through effective techniques such as a track and trace system. Similarly, in the political domain, the modus operandi needs to be revisited. It is an election year in Pakistan and the country is deeply entrenched in political instability due to polarization that intensified after a successful vote of no-confidence against the former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Even after a year, stakeholders in Pakistan have been unable to reach a consensus over the future course of action. To make things worse, the Election Commission of Pakistan has also decided to postpone elections, in Punjab, that was originally scheduled to be held on April 30. This decision may lead to a constitutional crisis that will hasten the country’s tailspin toward lawlessness and chaos.

It is time that the stakeholders in Pakistan develop a national consensus on the economy and decide that finances would no more be awarded by leadership to local allies for political gains at the cost of national economic interest.

Stakeholders in Pakistan need to realize that with such impudence no amount of IMF bailouts would ever be sufficient and the country would always remain entrenched in deficits.

The understanding is that international organizations are only facilitators and do not guarantee that countries with economic success need to prevail in Pakistan. Learning from the aforementioned, case study of Ireland can be Pakistan’s first step in the positive direction. Ireland was also entrenched in the financial crisis when it sought IMF’s help. Once economic assistance was secured, the country shifted its focus to long-term growth and ignored short-term temptations. Pakistan can, certainly, follow in Ireland’s footsteps but that would require far-sightedness and strong commitment in the overall decision-making paraphernalia.

Pakistan-China Relationship In a Changing World

By
Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi
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The world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, with increasing sources of turbulence and risks around the world. We are witnessing significant political, strategic, and economic transformation and it would not be wrong to say that the world is in a state of flux and uncertainty.  The end of the cold war heralded the emergence of numerous fast-developing economies in Asia, South America, Africa, and the phenomenal rise of China, strengthening the expectation of the establishment of a multipolar world by the middle of the 21st Century.

The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world is a period of uncertainty with the emergence of new alignments and new security and economic structures.

On the international front, we see the US-China rivalry fast turning from competition to confrontation. The US believes that China needs to be contained and its global influence countered through a range of political and business protective measures that include activities that the US believes can inhibit, reduce, retard, and slow down China’s growing influence. The growing fear of China’s phenomenal rise and the imminent possibility of China emerging as the most powerful state in the world economically, politically, and strategically resulted in the passage of the notorious China Containment Bill by the U.S.A in 2022 and then declaring China as a threat in its National Security Strategy and other documents. These measures also manifest the insatiable desire of the U.S.A. to continuously have an enemy to fight against. When there is none, they ensure one is created, in this case, China.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit in 2022 heightened the possibility of the dormant war theatre opening in the Straits of Taiwan, destabilizing the entire region and beyond. Now the controversy over a weather balloon has further made the China-U.S.A relationship completely unpredictable, unstable, and volatile. The balloon saga clearly demonstrates that China-U.S.A. competition is here to stay and has the potential to undermine peace and stability, particularly in the Asia Pacific region.

The United States has substantially expanded its defense budgets incorporating new technologies in its already massive defense capabilities. In the Pacific, Australia at the behest of the U.S.A and as a member of QUAD is now predominantly focusing on the Pacific Islands, Japan, situated off the eastern coast of China with difficult bilateral relations with China after almost 80 years is being encouraged to expand its defense budget gradually coursing it to abandon its peaceful orientation.

In the North East of China we see South Korea clearly demonstrated its preference for the United States in case of any confrontation while India has been chosen to be the strategic partner of the U.S.A in the Indian Ocean Region continues to heighten tensions with China and Pakistan, the all-weather strategic cooperative partner of China. On the other hand, security tensions between the United States and its allies and partners, and China also display signs of escalation. All these political moves by the U.S.A clearly betray its desire to encircle China too, if not stop, at least retard the political and economic rise of China.

China continuously trying to build up its stature as a leading world power that is responsible and desires a peaceful and developed world based on its concept of “Win-Win Cooperation”.

Therefore, we see that on the heels of the Global Development Initiative (GDI) launched in 2021, China launched the Global Security Initiative (GDI) in April 2022.

Developing countries, particularly Pakistan which is situated in an extremely important region, will face severe challenges alongside emerging opportunities. Pakistan needs to navigate these turbulent waters with great strategic vision and political sagacity if it wants to successfully emerge from this flux as a politically and economically strong nation.

Strengthening its all-weather strategic cooperative partnership with China while maintaining its friendly relations with the USA and Europe will be challenging but that is the only wise course of action to take for Pakistan.

Therefore, the coming decades will be the real test of political and strategic farsightedness and a test of its diplomacy.

Pakistan-China friendship has evolved over the past seven decades into a well-rounded relationship based on mutual trust and respect. Today, they truly are “All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partners” and each other’s strength and “iron brothers”. This relationship has withstood the test of time and continues to demonstrate incredible stability and retain its strategic quality.

CPEC as the flagship project of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative is the unmistakable symbol of this abiding friendship and occupies a pivotal position in the development agenda of Pakistan.

CPEC has immense strategic significance for Pakistan and has already helped Pakistan lay a strong infrastructure for the subsequent development of our industry, agriculture, and human resource.

As a flagship project of the BRI, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has already achieved phenomenal success by laying a solid foundation of infrastructure in the energy and transport sectors. Building upon this foundation, Phase II of CPEC would now focus on socio-economic development and poverty alleviation for robust, sustainable, and inclusive growth for Pakistan and the whole region at large.

Pakistan and China are both aware of their respective national challenges, and external variables in the form of global threats including unanticipated military conflicts, global recessions or financial crises, disruptions in energy supply lines, or determined efforts by countries, individually or within broad coalitions, to halt regional and inter-regional connectivity through BRI, coupled with unilateralism, protectionism, and unilateral coercive measure. Pakistan and China are also mindful of common regional issues such as widespread unemployment, changes in rainfall patterns and river flows, sea level rise, the melting of the Himalayan glaciers that feed most Asian continental river systems, and the increasing scarcity of freshwater resources and should try to cooperate in these areas to address these issues.

Similarly, the complementing demographics of Pakistan, with nearly a hundred million people below the age of 25, presents a unique opportunity as a national asset to tap their latent energies and potential skills, in making them effective managers of change for the future. Further, as projected, Pakistan will be around US$ 1.5 trillion in the economy if it can maintain a growth rate of 5% in the coming years. Thus, in realizing their national goals aligned with their respective centennial anniversaries in 2047 and 2049, Pakistan and China should make every effort to realize their common vision of a Pakistan-China shared community of common interests and in doing so contribute in a positive way to the future of mankind.

The Indian Ocean is critical to global trade, security, geopolitics, and geo-economics. Conflicting alignments of the three dozen littoral states, as countries compete for influence in its crowded waterways, have made this region a potential war theatre.

How will the new power dynamics play out, particularly the U.S.A-China competition, Pakistan-India, and China-India rivalry is a question that is gaining significance and urgency by the day and further endangering the stability of the region, which is significant for global maritime trade flows? This growing interest of the major powers and the U.S.A-China competition in the Indian Ocean has serious implications for Pakistan. As the dynamics of world politics change, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has become the real theatre of competition between the Western powers and China, and let me add Russia to the mix as well. Now, it has become an integral part of international power dynamics.

Implications for Pakistan are huge as it is not a member of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), where India is one of the founding members.

Pakistan is directly affected by the actions of these three states as China is a friend, India is a foe and the U.S.A is a transactional partner. The IOR is the future of world politics. With India becoming the sixth largest economy in the world by bypassing France, it naturally has started to assert itself in the region. The Indian hegemonic ambition in the IOR is a matter of deep concern for China as it is heavily dependent on the ocean for its trade activities.

Pakistan is situated at the nexus of the four most dynamic regions of the world – China, South and South-East Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia. In the current changing world scenario, China has assumed great importance in the region where Pakistan is a close partner of China to pursue peace and stability in the region. Through CPEC Pakistan and China should aim at the establishment of an efficient and integrated system of communications and transport, in order for both to benefit from and contribute to the regional dynamism.

Pakistan is now actively promoting economic corridors and the experiences of China and ASEAN countries in promoting and developing regional and sub-regional corridors will benefit Pakistan/ China, countries of South and Central Asia, and beyond.

Under the new circumstances, Pakistan and China should stand together even more firmly and push forward the all-weather strategic cooperative partnership, building a closer China-Pakistan community with a shared future in the new era. Nowadays, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has entered a new stage of high-quality development, and the cooperation between our two sides will have even greater potential. China supports Pakistan in exploring a development path suited to its own national conditions and is willing to share China’s high-quality development opportunities with Pakistan and contribute to Pakistan’s industrialization, urbanization, and digitization.

It is, therefore, essential to set out clear goals and expectations, to be translated into a concrete road map and coherent strategy for balanced human, social, and economic development that would substantially contribute to regional peace and stability. We should provide a conceptual platform for the revival of sustainable and inclusive growth, benefiting the two peoples. This will strengthen the development foundation enabling both China and Pakistan to achieve their development goals. Hence, aiming at achieving a high level of human development and national autonomy associated with a high-income status before the centennial anniversaries towards the middle of this century.

It has now become imperative that both countries aim to raise the existing level of “all-weather strategic cooperative partnership” to new heights with comprehensive regional and global partnership and strategic interaction and alignment, to meet the challenges of the New Era, while adhering to the development goals and aspirations of the two people through a comprehensive and forward-looking plan of action. It is also important to carefully study China’s strategy for socioeconomic development and poverty alleviation and draw lessons from it.

Looking at the future, more vigorous, inclusive, and all-encompassing relations would not only serve the best interest of the two countries but would also ensure peace and stability for the entire region.

Pakistan and China are cognizant of the new and emerging challenges within and arising from economic-political and geo-strategic realignments.

In view of these developments, both countries should aim to build a closer and more meaningful “Pakistan-China Community of Shared Future in the New Era” in line with the principles set forth by the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Good-neighbourly Relations between the People’s Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan signed in 2005, the Joint Statement of November 2018 and other bilateral documents focusing on the long-term development of relations.

Internationalization of Pakistan’s Economy

By
Sana Hamid
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USA-based global rating company Moody has further downgraded Pakistan’s sovereign credit ratings by further two notches to Caa3-the lowest in three decades-amid international loan negotiations, citing the country’s increasingly fragile liquidity as “significantly raising default risk”. For credibility to be upgraded, the agency implied that Pakistan complies with the demands of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and expands its engagement with the latter, even beyond its ending period in June 2023. It is pertinent to mention here that while Pakistan has succumbed to the demands of IMF by our government taking various austerity measures, the rollover of at least $1.1 billion still remains a far play which in turn is an encumbrance to Pakistan obtaining loans from other bilateral and multilateral partners. Also, during the previous year, the IMF loan was increased by 45% to settle at Rs. 1.7 trillion by the end of December 2022. So, the question that arises here is whether this method to retain foreign exchange reserves (Forex)-with nothing in sight for its expansion and durability- is sustainable when our already depleting foreign reserves stand at $4.3 billion today.

With the mounting loans, coupled with a lack of repayment resources, the country’s destiny has been placed in the hands of International financial institutions and global power. No political party or National alliance has been able to cope with the country’s economic woes as our utmost focus has remained on casting aspersions on each other and various state institutions instead of working towards National Consensus and National Consolidation at least to overcome the economic suicide that the state is committing today, slowly, deliberately and intermittently.

Pakistan’s utmost problem remains Protracted Policy and Political Chaos compounding and hence compounded by the social vulnerability.

Our policies are governed by ad-hocism and whilst leaders in the parliament spill all their force in pulling each other’s leg, Pakistan’s public debt stands today at $97.5 billion. Recently, PDM has pitched high on the decrease in this public debt by $ 4.7 billion in February 2023, the amount has been paid out of our forex. With no foreseeable development pattern, foreign reserves dipped by a staggering 68% or $12.1 billion to settle at $4.3 billion, as mentioned above. Pakistan is at risk of default and this is the high time for Pakistan to make structural-and might be painful-amendments to our economic odyssey. Instead of looking to various creditors-bilateral and multilateral-for economic assistance that, in the long run, makes Pakistan even more vulnerable to its political interests, Pakistan should capitalize on its international agreements and investments, striving to attract global market but in such a manner that our national interests are served strategically and durably.

Reliance on CPEC as being our only savior would not serve the purpose nor our current modus operandi on this or any other international project will do.

For Pakistan to see the benefits of $25 billion already being invested under the guise of CPEC, it is necessary that transparency, payment, and shareholding equality and Balochistan consensus is attained.

Accountability and Structural introspection are yet another necessity missing in our economic structure. This is what cost Pakistan an 11$ billion penalty (by the International Court for Settlement of Investment Disputes) in the Reqo Diq Case. It is strategic that Pakistan has refurbished the deal and saved the penalty but such policies of appeasement as hurriedly passing Foreign Investment (Promotion and Protection) Bill, 2022, through Parliament to guarantee the protection of foreign investment in connection with Reko Diq might serve as yet another misstep. This is primarily because the utmost hurdle in the reissuing of the license to the company that caused the dispute– has been Tethyan Copper Company involving other stakeholders without taking into account our provincial or federal governments. So, what policy has been incorporated to settle such issues or misgivings?

It is not meant here that project shall be delayed or obstructed but the point to be considered is taking a meticulous road to the coveted destiny so that we are not misled or moved astray. There is a wise saying that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and as Reqo Diq Project is viable to unlock Pakistan’s mineral potential (with the project aiming at producing 200,000 tons of copper and 250, 000 ounces of gold a year for nearly 50 years) and is eyeing on creating 8000 direct and 12, 000 indirect jobs, it is up to the state to show it to the maximization of national interest of the state. It is again up to the government in power to ensure that the 50% share given to the operating Barrick Gold Company (same as Tethyan Copper Company) serves the justifiable benefit of the state and its people.

Pakistan’s energy vulnerability is another pressing catastrophe striking the very essence of our economic prowess. Our natural gas reserves have been depleting at the rate of 9 % per annum now and hence strategic and meticulous completion and operationalization of such projects as the TAPI gas pipeline-1820 km pipeline that tends to deliver 1.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day-and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan power pipeline should be the state’s priority. CASA-1000-delivering 1300 MW of electricity to Pakistan and Afghanistan from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan hydropower resources that are abundant in summers- is another project that can suffice both our economic woes and our COP-26 obligations of achieving carbon neutrality by 2025.

Pakistan shall extend its engagement with the Central Asian region-a new center for global power politics also in the pursuit of its Nuclear Energy Vision 2050, whereby Pakistan wants to meet one-quarter of its energy requirements by incorporating 40, 000 MW of nuclear energy capacity in our national grid.

It is high time that Pakistan realizes the misadventures of its economic odyssey in such a manner that Pakistan is raised to a pedestal of being an internationally creditworthy and economically fascinating state, whose national image does not revolve around being a security-centric or debt-thirsty state merely. All relevant and capable state institutions, hence, shall be allowed to play their part in the better interest of the state and its people.

China Redefines Restraint on Taiwan

By
Asma Khan Durrani
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PLA

As soon as Tsai Ing-wen arrived in Taiwan from the US, Beijing began a three-day military exercise surrounding the island. This is the second significant military countermeasure that is targeted. The previous instance took place after Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. This time, it was anticipated that China would use caution, but the outcome was unexpected.

Taiwan miscalculated the outcome entirely. Taiwan took the initiative to transfer the meeting to the US because the governing DPP believed that holding the meeting between Tsai and McCarthy in the US would be less embarrassing for China and prevent more military exercises surrounding the island. Beijing, however, seems unappreciative, and Xi is trying to convey that the “meeting” is more important than the “place.”

The American media misread this occasion as Beijing hosted President Macron of France and President Von der Leyen of the European Commission. It would be embarrassing for the two European dignitaries and detrimental to Sino-European ties to escalate military tensions at this time.

Beijing does not want the international community to misinterpret China’s desire for peace. Expecting China to reach a compromise on the Taiwan issue is simply wishful thinking. Xi spoke directly to von der Leyen and the West; anyone who did so will merely hoist a stone and crush his own feet.

Taiwan is central to China’s essential interests; therefore, its call for peace does not entail giving up on that front. China will not be reluctant to demonstrate its willingness to protect its sovereignty if the West seeks to test this tenet, even if its precise measures may harm Beijing’s ties with the West. In other words, China’s diplomacy is built on the principle that the Taiwan problem should not be brought up internationally.

Tsai Ing-wen’s visit got a frosty reaction because of the Biden administration’s inclination to interact with Beijing. Tsai’s public comments were minimized by the White House, which forbade communication with any government employees with her. In order to demonstrate Washington’s restraint, the US ruling party used this to portray the scene as an opposition party event or even McCarthy’s behavior rather than the official US position. However, mutual trust between the US and China is a requirement for the Chinese side to understand Washington’s restraint.

Since the Biden administration often makes bogus promises to Beijing while advancing US-Taiwan ties, there is no foundation for confidence between the US and China on the Taiwan issue. The disparity between words and deeds leaves little room for faith. This is another American “sausage tactics” method, according to Beijing, which involves moving forward and then taking a step back. As a result, China’s proportionate “restraint” was not what the US had anticipated. There may have been no missile launches over Taiwan this time, which is a reasonable amount of restraint.

McCarthy’s cancellation of his trip to Taiwan and reiteration of the US’s “one-China policy” in front of Tsai seem to have been a surrender by Washington, which is fully aware that manipulating the Taiwan issue is equivalent to handing Beijing permission to overreact and damage the US. The Republican Party has also restricted its urge to perform, merely demonstrating the barest amount of support without sacrificing decorum, yet the results have been beyond expectations.

Is Beijing’s strong stance towards Taiwan conflicted with its call for peace? In reality, they aren’t. The US may read it as follows: China’s “thin-skinned diplomacy” and “overreaction” are meant to contrast China’s image of peace with the US’s aggressiveness. Every time the US crosses the border, it aids China in maintaining the moral high ground and reversing the trend of the Taiwan issue’s globalization.

A regional conflict is not something that ASEAN or India, which are both growing, want to see. As a devoted ally, Japan is adhering to US requests to increase its military, but this does not imply that they are prepared to participate in the Taiwan War.

Washington will discover that the more it plays the Taiwan problem, the more China’s neighbors will hate the US, necessitating China’s military reaction in an effort to maintain peace in the area. A regional conflict is not something that ASEAN or India, which are both growing, want to see. As a devoted ally, Japan is adhering to US requests to increase its military, but this does not imply that they are prepared to participate in the Taiwan War. On the one hand, Beijing advocates for a peaceful reunion with Taiwan, but on the other, it employs a grey zone policy designed to reclaim Taiwan progressively and reduce any opposition from its neighbors.

China is different from Russia in that it will gradually influence events in its favor until it is certain that even the worst outcomes won’t prevent China’s resurgence. Only then will it reveal its true intentions? The “Neocons” depicted Taiwan as the Ukraine of East Asia provided China a “peace loudhailer” to urge its neighbors to support the anti-war cause and allowed China to “overreact” under this pretext to increase military deployments.

The Neocons in the US is both a blessing and a burden for Beijing. Is a war between China and the US over Taiwan inescapable? In other words, the challenge for the US is how to use the inevitable confrontation to its advantage, while the question for China is how to do away with the notion of the US.

Beijing believes that the US would give up on resolving the Taiwan issue via confrontation and instead look for a peaceful solution through accords if it cannot successfully unify the West to undermine China on the issue.

The independence of Europe is essential to achieving this aim, while the independence of other areas like the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America serve as examples for Europe to imitate. This goal requires a clear shift towards a multipolar world. The United States won’t have enough friends once multipolarity becomes an unstoppable trend to influence the Taiwan Strait conflict.

There will be many stressful circumstances along the process, and it won’t be easy. The observation point is which side has established an unchangeable “new normal” in order to determine which party successfully furthers its objectives during the crisis.

What objectives did Beijing want to accomplish with this meeting between Tsai Ing-wen and McCarthy? The “United Sword” military exercise is nothing new since comparable exercises are already commonplace. The “combat readiness patrol,” a new naval inspection operation that lasts for three days, is the actual surprise this time.

In order to “ensure the safety of the ships’ navigation,” the southeastern provinces of China conducted “on-site inspections” of engineering and cargo ships in the northern and central Taiwan Strait. This non-military action aimed to revoke Taiwan’s sovereignty. This indicates that Beijing is attempting to create a new non-military normal to assert its authority. There will undoubtedly be further “sovereign override” measures in the future; the three-day operation is an example.

Although the former president of Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou, visited China during Tsai’s “transit” to the US and performed a peace aria there, leading much Taiwanese elite to believe that Beijing would not discuss peace on the one hand and bolster its deterrence on the other, well, they also misjudged the content of China’s peace strategy. Xi wants to convey that peace and trust should not be taken for granted but rather must be earned.

Beijing no longer accepts that Washington and Taipei use double-dealing to provoke China while masking their hostile activities to push for Taiwan’s independence.

The 2024 election in Taiwan will not stop Beijing from escalating its military threats. Beijing currently thinks moderate tension would lead the Taiwanese people to treasure the existing calm and resist any aggressive moves instead of temporary tolerance.

Beijing’s countermeasures this time outperformed expectations, reminding the McCarthy and Biden administrations that Taiwan is China’s bottom line and that not a single step should be crossed. If you take two steps ahead, you must take two steps back. China is free to decide what “restraint” means.

Since China has rejected the US desire to abandon the current guardrails and try to create a new one by limiting communication, there are already muted voices in the US calling for an end to the radical remarks on China. The wise choice Americans have realized is that overreacting will have unbearable consequences. A new fence would require China to compromise, which is not doable.

 

 

Dealing with Afghanistan Crisis After the US Withdrawal

By
Dr. Usman
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0
US fall of Kabul

The Afghan Republic government fell on August 15, 2021, and the Taliban seized control of Kabul, the country’s capital. On August 30, 2021, at 11:59 p.m. local time, the last American military aircraft that carried the last American soldier—Major General Chris Donahue, commanding general of the 82nd Airborne Division—departed Kabul, bringing an end to the country’s almost 20-year-long conflict in Afghanistan.

There have been several areas of progress over the last 20 years, most notably in education, civil government institutions, the media, the economy, civil society, healthcare, and regional connections.

The sudden departure thus led to a political vacuum, which in turn led to a humanitarian and political catastrophe with far-reaching effects. There have been several areas of progress over the last 20 years, most notably in education, civil government institutions, the media, the economy, civil society, healthcare, and regional connections.

The literacy rate increased dramatically, which is very crucial. The predicted adult total literacy rate (those over the age of 15) in 2018 was 43%; this included 55.5% men, 29.8% women, and 13.3% seniors (those over 65). The anticipated overall youth literacy rate (ages 15–24) in 2018 was 65.4%, with males making up 74.1% and females 56.3%. The achievements from the last two decades that were so laboriously gained now run the danger of being undone under the present conditions. The United States of America, the United Nations, the European Union, China, Russia, and neighboring Central Asian republics should use preventive diplomacy and find a workable solution to the crisis in Afghanistan in order to preserve the hard-won gains of the last two decades and prevent the impending socio-economic and political-security negative spillover effects.

Women and girls make up 49 percent of the estimated 40 million Afghans who are barred from participating in public life, including a prohibition on attending high schools and colleges and limitations on employment. Studies indicate that Afghanistan is among the most oppressive nations for women and girls because of the Taliban’s stringent regulations. After the Afghan Republic government fell, direct foreign development aid, which made up 75% of state spending, was halted. Two-thirds of Afghans, or 28.3 million people, need immediate humanitarian aid in 2023, and 17 million more will be in danger of hunger.

Afghanistan is seeing a resurgence of insurgent organizations, notably the self-declared Islamic State of Khorasan (ISIS-K), an ISIS offshoot. ISIS-K allegedly developed “strength and visibility” in Afghanistan when the Taliban took over the nation, and the organization could cause problems outside of Afghanistan, according to a U.N. Security Council report.

Army Gen. Michael Kurilla, who oversees U.S. Central Command, recently warned that within six months, the terrorist group will be able to carry out attacks against American and European interests outside of Afghanistan “with little to no warning.” Afghanistan’s potential decline as a state might make it an unsuspecting home for terrorist organizations, and the Taliban’s refusal to break with Al-Qaeda could worsen security conditions in the region and beyond.

Since August 2021, fewer casualties have occurred due to the lack of hostilities and increased general security. However, rising inflation, unstable economies, widespread human rights abuses, extrajudicial killings, abductions of children, exclusion of women and girls from secondary and higher education, bans on working for international NGOs, claims that “female NGO staff had broken dress codes by not wearing hijabs,” and international sanctions made the situation even worse.

Regardless of gender, all Afghan residents should have access to high-quality education since it is a basic human right. Thought and speech freedom are fundamental human rights that should not be criminalized or interfered with extrajudicially. Since the Taliban took control of the country, 1.6 million more Afghans have entered the neighboring nations of Tajikistan, Iran, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan.

A new Afghan administration with assistance from the West was established due to the Bonn Accord, which was reached in 2001 between Afghan political leaders under the auspices of the U.N. The E.U., the U.S., and other nations provided the newly elected administration with significant political and financial help for the country’s restoration and rehabilitation. Despite many obstacles, the support aided in guiding the nation toward development.

The Taliban, a religious organization, now controls Afghanistan without receiving internal legitimacy via elections or international recognition from any nation. Their exclusive strategy might make the countries political and security situation worse. They have not shown a desire to organize elections and do not intend to since they consider religious interpretations the source of their authority. This political impasse might push the nation into yet another conflict or disaster.

The U.S., U.N., E.U., Russia, China, and Central Asia can prevent the delicate situation from imploding by preventative diplomacy before it worsens. The United States is the major supplier of money to Afghanistan.  For the years 2021 and 2022, respectively, the E.U. budgeted €222 million and €174 million for humanitarian assistance provided by aid agencies working in the nation and the area.

The U.S., E.U., and other nations’ humanitarian assistance may momentarily ameliorate the humanitarian issues. However, a developing socioeconomic and political security crisis would affect more than just Afghanistan and might also have repercussions for the surrounding area. The nations in the area and beyond, especially the U.S., China, Russia, and the E.U., must increase their diplomatic, political, and economic power to prevent Afghanistan’s socioeconomic and political-security ramifications from increasing.

The E.U. and the U.S. have the resources and ability to step in and prevent a possible crisis from becoming worse. In particular, the E.U. has diplomatic representation and special envoys in Afghanistan and its neighboring countries, allowing them to use their political influence and leverage to pressure the Taliban to start a dialogue to reach a political settlement considering all facets of the Afghan political landscape. The most recent talks in Brussels between the E.U. and Central Asia Special Representatives and Special Envoys for Afghanistan are successful measures, but a real push is still needed to alter the leadership of the Taliban’s behavior.

With the help of relief agencies working in Afghanistan and the area, the U.S., E.U., and China can alleviate the present humanitarian situation while enlisting other nations’ help. Furthermore, the U.S., the E.U., and China can persuade the Taliban to demonstrate their willingness, initially through a conventional Loya Jirga, which could open the door for more representative government, elections, meaningful representation for women in all socio-political spheres, and respect for human rights.

Using their politico-religious influence, Gulf nations, particularly Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, might play a significant role. In addition, several neighboring nations, particularly Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, often worry about potential spillover effects. These nations might be persuaded to take on user roles.

Program Offices and Field Missions for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are in Central Asia. These offices might aid in addressing certain Afghanistan-related side effects, including drug trafficking and human rights violations.

In conclusion, throughout the last forty years, Afghanistan has endured turbulent political upheavals that have led to the present political deadlock, resulting from repeated political mistakes. To avoid escalation, the U.S., the E.U., China, and other regional players should constantly watch the quickly changing situation in Afghanistan.

Establishing a broad-based and inclusive government is essential to ensuring political stability and full representation across all social strata. An inclusive government can uphold human rights, provide adequate representation for women and racial and religious minorities, and combat the threat of terrorism and extremism. Additionally, it can guarantee everyone has access to education, which might aid Afghanistan in resolving its lengthy issue.

 

The Hawk’s Dominance in Iran’s IRGC VS Azerbaijani Intelligence

By
Asma Khan Durrani
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Iran Military Drills Near Azerbaijan's Border

Tensions in Iran-Azerbaijan relations persist in numerous areas after the terrorist assault on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran on January 27, 2023, which resulted in one security guard’s death and another’s injury.

Azerbaijan evacuated its diplomats from the Tehran embassy back to Baku because it was troubled by the fact that the Tehran police shielded the terrorist who attacked its embassy, and the motivation for it was not made public. Moreover, the counter-operation carried out by the Azerbaijan Intelligence Organisation against Iran’s espionage network in Azerbaijan over the previous seven months resulted in the detention of hundreds of individuals as suspects. Finally, the Azerbaijani foreign ministry handed four diplomats in the Iranian embassy in Baku 48 hours to leave the country with their families before declaring them persona non grata. Such circumstances often occur when diplomats operate in a manner inconsistent with their obligations and meddle in nations’ domestic affairs. The judgments made by the parliaments also showed the animosity between the two nations. The Iranian parliament passed a resolution that was directed toward Azerbaijan. In a statement, the Azerbaijani parliament responded to this action by calling it unfit for good neighborliness.

 

The commander of Iran’s troops threatened Azerbaijan as his country conducted three military drills along its border with that country in the previous year. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are using films to intimidate Azerbaijan. The most recent video they made showed Iranian kamikaze UAVs bombing Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan retaliated by conducting its military drills, and its defense ministry charged Iran with sponsoring terrorism in the area.

Although tension has been shifting between Iran and Azerbaijan over the last 30 years, this level has never been achieved. There are two explanations for the current stress in relationships. The first is Iran’s 2021 election of hardline candidate Ibrahim Reisi as president. Second, the Reisi administration sought to alter the new geopolitical landscape developed in the area after Azerbaijan’s victory in Karabakh.

Revolutionary Guard appointments rose when Ibrahim Reisi was elected president, and the hardline faction’s influence on Iran’s Azerbaijan policy grew. Ibrahim Reisi and President Ilham Aliyev met twice, but the meetings did not calm tensions; instead, they heightened them.

Iran believes that the outcomes of the Karabakh conflict have inspired the 30 million Azerbaijanis who live there and reinforced their sense of national identity. Iran is troubled by the Karabakh Victory has altered the geopolitical realities in the area in favor of Azerbaijan. Tehran is using Azerbaijan to exert psychological pressure to eliminate this outcome.

 

By reopening the Azerbaijani embassy in Israel. According to the Reisi regime, it is improper for a Muslim nation to establish an embassy in Israel. However, there are other Muslim nations with embassies in Israel besides Azerbaijan. Several Muslim nations have held embassies in Israel in the past. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has long noted Iran’s sensitivity to this subject, but a shift in attitude was brought on by the Second Karabakh War and Iran’s subsequent aggressive actions.

Tehran acknowledges the danger posed, in particular, by reopening the Azerbaijani embassy in Israel. According to the Reisi regime, it is improper for a Muslim nation to establish an embassy in Israel. However, there are other Muslim nations with embassies in Israel besides Azerbaijan. Several Muslim nations have held embassies in Israel in the past. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has long noted Iran’s sensitivity to this subject, but a shift in attitude was brought on by the Second Karabakh War and Iran’s subsequent aggressive actions. Baku reacted in like to Iran’s aid to Armenia, which had annexed Azerbaijani territory. A few miles from the Azerbaijani border, in Kafan, Armenia, Iran erected a consulate after the war. Iranian Foreign Minister Hüseyin Abdullahian attended the ceremony and referred to Armenia’s security—which had occupied Azerbaijani territory for 30 years—as Iran’s security. Iran maintained its silence throughout the 30 years that Azerbaijani territory was occupied, but in the years after the war, it declared the defense of Armenia’s boundaries to be its red line.

It is also known that Iran dispatched troops to Armenia simultaneously to serve as military advisors and equip and train Armenian forces. It is feared that Iran, which employs asymmetric warfare strategies in Libya, Yemen, and Syria, would deploy the same strategies against Azerbaijan through Armenia and gain an advantage.

It is conceivable to link the recent Iranian earthquakes Azerbaijan links recent geopolitical changes in the area with Iran’s escalating hostility. These include Turkey’s upcoming elections, Iran’s expanding ties with Russia and China, and its normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia. Turkey is a crucial ally of Azerbaijan. The closer ties with these nations have boosted the Iranian hawks’ self-assurance. He intends to use them to his advantage to change the geopolitical landscape of the area in his favor after the Karabakh War.

Following the conflict, Azerbaijan made crucial moves to placate Iran. The inaugural meeting of Azerbaijan’s six-party platform for regional cooperation, which exclusively included governments from the area, including Iran, was held in Moscow. The second was scheduled to occur in Ankara, but Iran demanded that it occur in Tehran. Of course, the parties rejected this regional imposition since it was unreasonable. In addition, President Ilham Aliyev went to the Araz River between Iran and Azerbaijan after the war and declared it to be the boundary of two friendly nations. In order to allay Iran’s worries over the Zangezur corridor, Azerbaijan also struck an agreement with Iran to construct a new bridge over the Araz River, which was eventually finished. These actions, however, did not placate Iran.

Contrarily, Iran is deterred by Azerbaijan’s network of allies in the face of these efforts from Tehran. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan signed the Shusha Declaration on allied relations between their two countries in Shusha, freed from occupation on June 15, 2021. This move elevated the two nations’ military defense sector cooperation to a new level. This proclamation eventually received the support of both nations’ parliaments and was recognized internationally. Azerbaijan’s ties with Pakistan, another Muslim nation, are crucial. Following the Second Karabakh War, joint trilateral exercises were held in Azerbaijan by the special forces of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan. In addition, Iran could not convince Moscow to join forces with Russia against Azerbaijan.

Although there have always been tense relations between Iran and Azerbaijan, Ibrahim Reisi’s election as president of Iran in 2021 and the Revolutionary Guards’ control over the country’s security and foreign policy led to the hardline groups taking control of Azerbaijani policy. Iran exerts pressure on Azerbaijan to concede to its demands in diplomatic negotiations by pursuing an aggressive strategy towards that country. Azerbaijan, however, is demonstrating that it will not concede Iran the geopolitical advantage won in the Second Karabakh War at the diplomatic level.

Extent of China’s influence on the longevity of the Saudi-Iranian Reproachment

By
Dr. Usman
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0

The normalization process between Saudi Arabia and Iran seems to have changed course in the wake of China’s arrival. It is believed that the recently inked deal between Riyadh and Tehran would dramatically change Middle Eastern geopolitics. Due to stringent sanctions, Tehran had been cut off from mainstream regional politics until China’s arrangement was mediated. Saudi Arabia is also quite optimistic that the agreement would stop additional attempts to harm its regional interests.

The overall consensus on the significance of the alleged contract is largely divided since no specifics regarding the latest arrangement have been reported in the media. Some claim that the development is substantial and will greatly impact the area. This is the first time China has replaced the US in the region’s agreement-broking process. The US acted as the only party to broker the agreements from the Camp David Agreement in 1978 through the Abraham Accords in 2020. However, given the entrenched conflicts in the area and the intricate geopolitics of the Middle East and West Asia, this specific event won’t mean much for some people. However, the sustainability element under Chinese supervision is crucial since the US and other European nations’ track records of meditating in the area have been dismal. So, the million-dollar issue is whether China can guarantee the longevity of the Saudi-Iran agreement.

Three factors—increasing pressure on the Iranian government, the appearance of chilly relations between Riyadh and Washington, and third, the US’s lackadaisical attitude towards the region—were responsible for the success. Tehran’s annoyance is understandable given the country’s terrible economic situation, which has led to several rallies, including the most recent one over Masha Amini’s murder, in which US media, in particular, played a devil’s advocate.

Be aware that Beijing was neither a negotiator nor a guarantor before looking for a response to the specific point presented above. Instead, it helped the two sides communicate to resolve an agreement pending since 2016. Second, the agreement shouldn’t be considered a victory for China over the US in a conflict. Instead, three factors—increasing pressure on the Iranian government, the appearance of chilly relations between Riyadh and Washington, and third, the US’s lackadaisical attitude towards the region—were responsible for the success. Tehran’s annoyance is understandable given the country’s terrible economic situation, which has led to several rallies, including the most recent one over Masha Amini’s murder, in which US media, in particular, played a devil’s advocate. Likewise, the two years of strained relations between Riyadh and Washington contributed to laying the groundwork for US replacement. Washington’s obsession with the conflict in Ukraine is primarily to blame for the US’s lackluster attitude to the Middle East and, in particular, the warming relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In light of this, China’s involvement amid escalating doubts over the rapprochement of Saudi Arabia and Iran was not unexpected.

On the other hand, China has long been worried about tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran since both nations are Beijing’s main trading partners, and a settlement between the two bitter foes would be in the best interests of Beijing’s fundamental regional economic interests. Beijing’s current position, however, is essentially the same as Islamabad’s during the US-China reconciliation in 1971, which was confined to arranging meetings between the two nations and had little effect on changing their hostile to amicable ties. China also used its clout to persuade Riyadh and Tehran to negotiate. However, it would be premature to assert that Beijing could usher in a new era in bilateral ties given that normalization is a difficult and protracted process, with the latest agreement just marking the beginning of a long and arduous journey.

China has long been worried about tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran since both nations are Beijing’s main trading partners, and a settlement between the two bitter foes would be in the best interests of Beijing’s fundamental regional economic interests.

Realistically, China had an easier time persuading Iran and Saudi Arabia since Beijing was not just a friendly neighbor but also a non-partisan one. Furthermore, Beijing was better able to broker a deal between the two regional rivals because of its economic might. Beijing, however, typically lacks both the political will and the capacity to cope with the intricate sectarian, religious, and ethnic conflicts in the area, making it difficult for normalization to continue. One can only hope that proxy politics in the area, especially in Yemen, will lessen. However, it’s also crucial to understand that, in addition to Saudi Arabia and Iran, most regional confrontations include other possible parties and non-state players. For instance, the fight in Yemen is mostly between Yemenis who are split into many factions, some acting independently to carry out the orders of Riyadh and Tehran. Because of this, the settlement is not simple. For a domestic solution to be reached, that would be acceptable to Yemenis as well, Riyadh and Tehran must collaborate. Here, China’s limited sway over a number of possible Saudi-Iran nexus parties might restrict its potential position as a mediator. Furthermore, China can be inadvertently drawn into the Middle East’s geopolitical quagmire if Riyadh and Iran fail to resolve the complaints of the many parties engaged in ongoing crises.

In conclusion, the future viability of the Saudi-Iran deal largely depends on three variables:

  1. How effectively Beijing responds to difficult circumstances.
  2. How much practical flexibility do Iran and Saudi Arabia show in their rigid positions?
  3. How the region’s geopolitics changed in response to US and Israeli future Middle East policies.

However, it is up to Riyadh and Tehran to protect the normalization process from outside interference. On the other hand, China has amicable connections with Riyadh and Tehran and will continue to push them to maintain their good relations even if the accord comes to an abrupt conclusion.

China can be inadvertently drawn into the Middle East’s geopolitical quagmire if Riyadh and Iran fail to resolve the complaints of the many parties engaged in ongoing crises.

Since normalization is a difficult and drawn-out process, greater support and recognition from regional and extra-regional nations is essential since China cannot guarantee the longevity of the Saudi-Iran agreement on its own. Pakistan’s contribution is essential to achieving Beijing’s goals since Islamabad has often given its good offices and attempted to defuse tensions between the two nations. The normalization process may also go smoothly if the US provides encouraging assistance.

 

 

Nuclear Energy in Pakistan: Harnessing the Power, Confronting the Complexities

By
Nadir Ali
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A severe energy crisis has been plaguing Pakistan for a number of years due to an insufficient electricity supply and rising energy demand. The majority of the nation’s energy needs are met by costly and environmentally harmful non-renewable resources like oil and gas. The country’s social and economic development has additionally been negatively impacted by the energy crisis. Pakistan has implemented several measures in recent years to address the energy crisis and move toward renewable energy sources. Wind, solar, and hydropower plants are just some of the renewable energy initiatives undertaken by the Government. These projects have contributed to those objectives by reducing the nation’s reliance on non-renewable resources and diversifying the country’s energy mix.

Similarly, Pakistan is looking into alternative energy sources, and nuclear energy has emerged as a potential remedy.

Nuclear power plants, though, have the capacity to generate a significant amount of electricity at a low cost and with little greenhouse gas emissions.

Furthermore, Pakistan’s energy mix now includes nuclear energy as an important component. Pakistan had six nuclear power plants that were operational in 2022. Being able to produce a lot of electricity at a low cost is one of nuclear power’s key benefits. Pakistan’s operating nuclear power plants have assisted the nation in diversifying its energy mix and lowering its reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, by fostering local industries and creating job opportunities, nuclear power plants have made a significant contribution to the economic growth of the areas in which they are situated.

Besides, the main benefit of nuclear energy is its capacity to produce a lot of electricity at a reasonable price. The continuous operation makes nuclear power plants a dependable source of electricity. The drawbacks of nuclear energy, however, include issues with waste management, safety, and high initial costs. Therefore, nuclear power plant safety is of utmost concern, and any breach of safety procedures could have disastrous effects. Nuclear waste must also be properly managed because it is highly radioactive and must be disposed of safely. Whereas, natural resources like sunlight, wind, water, and geothermal heat are used to create non-polluting renewable energy sources. The sustainability and low environmental impact of renewable energy sources are their main advantages. These sources don’t produce hazardous waste or release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere like fossil fuels and nuclear power.

Furthermore, as traditional energy sources become more expensively comparable to renewable energy sources, a wider range of consumers and states can now access renewable energy. Despite that, nuclear energy has come to light in Pakistan as a potential solution to the state’s energy crisis. Pakistan’s energy mix has become more diverse, and its reliance on fossil fuels has decreased as a result of the operational nuclear power plants. However, the government of Pakistan has set a goal for the use of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, to account for 60% of the nation’s total energy mix by 2030.

For Pakistan to have a sustainable energy future, it is essential to develop both nuclear energy and renewable energy sources.

Thus, future energy-related changes in Pakistan are anticipated to be significant. The government must put in place measures to promote the growth of renewable energy, like feed-in tariffs and net metering, in order to meet this goal.

Simultaneously, the dependability and stability of nuclear energy are two of its most important benefits. As opposed to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, which depend on the weather, nuclear power plants can run at full capacity for extended periods of time, ensuring a steady supply of electricity. In addition to emitting fewer greenhouse gases and being more environmentally friendly than fossil fuels, nuclear energy is a desirable option for halting climate change.

However, there are many significant problems with nuclear energy as well, such as risks associated with proliferation, management of waste, and safety issues.

Complex machines like nuclear power plants need highly trained operators and cutting-edge technology to run safely.

As evidenced by the Chornobyl and Fukushima accidents, a single malfunction can have disastrous effects. There are serious safety concerns due to Pakistan’s outdated power infrastructure and a shortage of trained personnel.

Similarly, another important concern for nuclear energy is the safe disposal of nuclear waste. Because it is highly radioactive, nuclear waste is dangerous for living things’ health. The government has taken action to address the issues, including investing in nuclear safety, establishing a nuclear regulatory authority, and creating a national strategy for the disposal of radioactive waste. Pakistan has also ratified international treaties and agreements on nuclear security, non-proliferation, and security as a symbol of its commitment to the peaceful use of nuclear technology.

Macron’s Visit & Assessing France’s China Diplomacy

By
Saher Liaqat
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0

EU-China relations have remained strained since the EU-China Summit in April last year, which the EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell called the “dialogue of the deaf.” China’s retaliation to EU sanctions on Russia, trade measures against the single market, humanitarian issues in Hongkong and Xinjiang, and its stance on the Ukraine conflict have further complicated the two. However, despite these challenges, the EU remained committed to engaging and cooperating with China due to its crucial role in addressing global issues. The EU’s approach towards China, outlined in the “Strategic Outlook” Joint Communication from March 2019, remains relevant.

In recent months, Beijing has welcomed many European dignitaries. Last November, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Beijing following the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, followed by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to China on March 31st this year. The recent visit of French President Emmanuel Macron, escorted by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to China, from April 5th -7th, however, has ruffled feathers of a possible realignment of the EU towards Beijing.

Since assuming office, French President Emmanuel Macron has prioritized bolstering economic and cultural ties with China. Macron deemed the economic ties with Beijing crucial for the country’s economic progress and global impact. During Macron’s first official visit to China in 2018, the Two countries signed multiple agreements regarding nuclear energy, agriculture, and tourism. Macron also urged China to address market access and trade imbalance issues. Despite challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic and France’s initial stance on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Sino-French economic ties became stronger. In 2019, China became the biggest foreign investor in France, and the two countries are cooperating in various avenues, such as intellectual property rights, green finance, and civil aviation.

France and China are major global trade players and significant export markets for each other. In 2021, trade volumes between the two countries reached an all-time high.

However, the total value of goods traded between China and France in 2022 was US$81.33 billion, a decrease of 4.4 percent compared to the same period in 2021, with a reduction of US$3.84 billion.

During his recent visit to China, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the importance of Western engagement with China to prevent further tensions and divisions among global powers. The mediation of the Ukraine war has remained a significant feature of Macron’s visit as he stressed the need to end the crisis and return to the negotiating table.

Macron was deeply impressed with China’s emerging role as a global mediator after Beijing brokered the Saudi-Iran deal and expressed that Beijing should also take a central role in resolving the Ukraine crisis.

President Xi has also expressed interest in mediating the Ukrainian conflict. As part of this commitment, both nations have pledged to assist in resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine through dialogue. They also called on the international community to address the various spillover effects of the crisis, such as those in food, energy, finance, transportation, and other areas, and to minimize its negative impact, particularly on developing countries.

In a joint statement, both countries have embarked on a new level of Sino-French ties by reinforcing political dialogue and promoting mutual political confidence, endorsing global security and stability, promoting economic interactions, encouraging people-to-people exchanges, and proclaiming a joint response to global challenges.

France and China have emphasized the significance of maintaining high-level contacts and dialogues to advance bilateral cooperation.

The leadership from France and China agreed to continue their annual meetings and to hold another session of their strategic dialogues, economic and financial dialogues, and people-to-people exchanges by the end of the year.

They have reiterated their dedication to creating a comprehensive strategic partnership built on mutual respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty, and critical interests. Furthermore, they have concurred to intensify talks on strategic matters and strengthen their mutual comprehension of international and regional security concerns.

France and China have also accentuated their support for strengthening the international multilateral system under the patronage of the United Nations. They have confirmed their commitment to promoting the three pillars of the Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation in a balanced manner. The two countries condemned any military attack on nuclear power plants or other peaceful nuclear facilities. They backed the International Atomic Energy Agency’s efforts to maintain their safety and security. Furthermore, they agreed to retain their discussions on strategic and cyber issues, affirmed their commitment to finding a political and diplomatic resolution to the nuclear issue of Iran, and agreed to continue close consultations on the situation in the Korean Peninsula.

In line with their commitment to work together to address global challenges, both countries are dedicated to ensuring global food supply chain stability, supporting countries hardest hit by the food crisis, and promoting sustainable food systems. They also endorsed a rules-based, WTO-centered multilateral trading system. They pledged to cooperate to help to develop and access financing to developing countries to accelerate their energy and climate transition. Additionally, they agreed to enhance their cooperation within the G20 and assist in implementing the Common Framework for Debt Treatments, embraced by Paris Club and the G20. By calling for increased action in channeling special drawing rights (SDR), both committed to the fight against climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation.

French President Emmanuel Macron has emphasized the need for Europe to reduce its reliance on the United States and to develop its strategic autonomy. His statement that Europe should not blindly follow the US and avoid becoming involved in external crises, likely referencing Taiwan, has led some to accuse him of undermining the trans-Atlantic stance against China. However, Macron clarified that France still supports the current status quo in Taiwan. He called for the EU to implement a “strategic autonomy” policy and become a “third pole” alongside China and the US, emphasizing that Europe must avoid becoming embroiled in its crises.

To recap, while France’s focus on strengthening economic ties with China could trigger a possible geopolitical realignment within the EU regarding its China policy, it remains contingent upon the peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis that has remained the sticking point of the recent visit.

The EU’s stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its differences with China over various issues have created a complex and challenging relationship that requires careful navigation.

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