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Current State of Politics in Kashmir

By
Moazam Khan
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Contrary to the claims of freedom of expression, Modi government’s repressive media policies are destroying Kashmiri journalism. Kashmiri Journalist and analyst criticized Modi’s role against Indian media and its freedom of expression terming Modi’s repressive media policies as deterioration for Kashmiri journalism.  Article in the New York Time highlighted that Modi regime is intimidating media to serve as government mouthpieces, creating an information vacuum in the region of 13 million people. Indian government is replicating this disturbing model on national scale and his Hindu-chauvinist movement has already put severe pressure on India’s press, with journalists surveilled and jailed. Indian repressive government using strong-arm tactics against media outlets to ensure favorable coverage. NYT said that the rest of India may end up looking a lot like Kashmir.

In 2019, India abruptly revoked Kashmir’s autonomous status without public input and sent in thousands of troops and shut down internet access which lasted nearly six months.

In 2019, India abruptly revoked Kashmir’s autonomous status without public input and sent in thousands of troops and shut down internet access which lasted nearly six months. Journalists in Kashmir are working under a cloud of fear, Journalism has always been hazardous in Kashmir. Media stands as one of the last remaining institutions capable of preventing India’s descent into authoritarianism. If Indian government succeeds in introducing the Kashmir model of information control to the rest of the country, it won’t be just press freedom that is at risk, but Indian democracy itself.

In Kashmir, Indian bulldozers are now carrying out settler-colonial policy (India Following Israeli Model in IIOJK). India is constantly using Israeli model of illegal occupation in Kashmir.

As per news story (NYT), Indian government has felt compelled to arm thousands of civilians in one of the world’s most militarized places, this shows the muscular approach of Indian government in controlling IIOJK. Kashmiris believe that even the Indian government has lost faith in its security agencies deployed in IIOJK, as they have been fully corrupted due to state patronage and are good for nothing. Rather India has resorted to the policy of cover up of its persistent failures using the rhetoric of Pakistan backed armed resistance. However, the existence of these groups will also exacerbate tensions between Hindus and Muslims living in these areas, especially as Hindu populations are provided with weapons and emboldened to commit war crimes and human rights violations against Muslims.

Revival of civil militias in Kashmir is raising fears across the valley. Three years later after the revocation of special status ok IIOJK, Indian government is reviving a civilian militia, called the Village Defence Guards (VDGs), in Jammu area.

In Kashmir, Indian bulldozers are now carrying out settler-colonial policy (India Following Israeli Model in IIOJK). India is constantly using Israeli model of illegal occupation in Kashmir. Indian government has resorted to various coercive tactics to grab the properties of Muslim population and charity organistion to suppress their voices. India continue its tyrannical policies in IIOJK and demolishing the houses of Kashmiris on the pretext that they are constructed on illegal land. It is pertinent to mention here that destruction of homes, in addition to the killings, torture and multiple other forms of violence, is part of a policy designed to break the will of the people.

Revival of civil militias in Kashmir is raising fears across the valley. Three years later after the revocation of special status ok IIOJK, Indian government is reviving a civilian militia, called the Village Defence Guards (VDGs), in Jammu area. VDGs were formed in 1990 and later disbanded in 2000s, Hindu and Sikh have demanded for the revival of VDGs, as Indian forces have failed to maintain peace in the region. The Indian government justifies the arming of civilians in Kashmir as a policy to safeguard people in remote terrains. A VDG member is paid a monthly remuneration of 4,000-4,500 rupees. However, local population is not feeling secure from such move and says that weapons should not be given to the civilians they can misuse it. The local Kashmiri also afraid due to the previous experience of VDGs. Official data shows at least 221 cases were registered against the members of the VDGs in the 1990s. Nearly two dozen of these cases were related to murder, seven to rape, and 15 cases involved rioting.

The NIA teams accompanied by Indian police and Central Reserve Police Force carried out raids in Srinagar, Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam and Islamabad districts of the Kashmir Valley.

Regarding the actions against minorities, NIA raids multiple locations in IIOJK. The NIA has started an extensive harassment drive against voices of dissent in IIOJK. The NIA teams accompanied by Indian police and Central Reserve Police Force carried out raids in Srinagar, Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam and Islamabad districts of the Kashmir Valley. Media quoting an official source stated that raids were being conducted in connection with an old case already registered at the NIA office.  The targeted campaign against Muslims has raised alarms as all the cases were registered on sou-moto action by NIA.

Since 2019, Modi led BJP government under the Jammu and Kashmir Public Safety Act (PSA) have detained various journalists on false accusation, on the pretext that they have been misguiding common masses by circulating fake news against the government and its policies.

India portrays it-self to be largest functioning democracy and secular state in the world that guarantees the freedom of expression and provide protection to its citizens whereas reality is opposite. In Kashmir, journalists have often been under threat. Threats to life, intimidation, assault, arrest and censorship have been part of the life of a typical local journalist. Since 2019, Modi led BJP government under the Jammu and Kashmir Public Safety Act (PSA) have detained various journalists on false accusation, on the pretext that they have been misguiding common masses by circulating fake news against the government and its policies.

India portrays it-self to be largest functioning democracy and secular state in the world that guarantees the freedom of expression and provide protection to its citizens whereas reality is opposite. In Kashmir, journalists have often been under threat.

India’s entrenched use of brute force and coercion to forcibly silence those raising voices against its horrendous crimes and egregious human rights violations in IIOJK. Numbers of internationally acknowledged Kashmiri journalists arrested included Fahad Shah, Aasif Sultan, and Sajad Gul. Besides this, in the latest development India has started to arm civilians in Jammu to fight terrorists under the garb of VDGs. India is arming 1000s of civilians in Jammu area of Indian Kashmir with old UK made 303 rifles. Weapons are issued to civilians to protect their villages and remote areas. The VDs comprising of Indian government selected and trained ‘civilian’ networks are used to harass, intimidate, track, and kill Kashmiri Muslims and suppress the freedom movement.

India is arming 1000s of civilians in Jammu area of Indian Kashmir with old UK made 303 rifles. Weapons are issued to civilians to protect their villages and remote areas. The VDs comprising of Indian government selected and trained ‘civilian’ networks.

India is using new tactics to grab the properties of Muslims leaders to stifle the voices of Muslims. As part of political vendetta, Indian law enforcement agencies have started a crackdown against the Muslim leaders and pro freedom people of IIOJK. Since the 5th August 2019, the IIOJK authorities have seized a number of assets belonging to pro-freedom Kashmiris to break their resolve. However, such moves have failed to deter the Kashmiris from pursuing their internationally recognized right to self-determination. All the Indian blatant violations and HRAs have failed to suppress the voices of Kashmiri people demanding their right of self-determination as per UN resolution.

Major Events that mark the United States Involvement in south Asia

By
Info Desk
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Timeline of major events that Mark U.S engagement with South Asia

Myanmar’s Air Strike on Chin National Front in India: Implications for Regional Stability

By
Muhammad Ali Baig
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On January 10, 2023, five fighter-bomber aircraft belonging to the Myanmar Air Force carried out an air strike against the headquarters of the rebel Chin National Front (CNF) in the vicinity of Mount Victoria, located in the Chin State, Western Myanmar. The assumed target area in the Chin State was near the India-Myanmar international boundary, bordering the Indian State of Mizoram. There are reports of at least 5 CNF casualties. The Chin State is a Christian-majority region and the CNF mainly comprises people adhering to the same faith.

The timing of the air strike was very important as India is overwhelmed by hosting its Voice of Global South Summit and its Minister for External Affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar was in Washington D.C. to speak at the India-U.S. Forum 2023. Nonetheless, the suspicious Indian diplomatic and political silence over the incident could lead to many hypotheses, including the assumption of providing safe haven to the militants belonging to CNF and other saboteurs wanted by Myanmar for terrorist and criminal activities. The Indian Home and External ministries are silent about the destruction of CNF safe havens and killings which took place within the territory of Mizoram State (India).

India’s Response

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) seems hesitant in responding to the violation of India’s air space and sovereignty. India’s Minister for External Affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar and even the official spokesperson Arindam Bagchi did not respond and acknowledge the air strike, and such could not be seen on either’s official Twitter handles.

There are 2 major questions that arise in the backdrop of the event.

  1. Why Myanmar violated Indian air space and sovereignty?
  2. Why the Indian Air Force could not respond?

The retired Indian Army Maj. Gen. G. D. Bakshi and defense analysts argued that Myanmar should have shared intelligence with their Indian counterparts; however, this statement conceals as much as it reveals. First, the latter statement made it clear that Myanmar surprised its Indian counterparts by executing the airstrikes. Second, it reveals that the policymakers in Myanmar were skeptical of Indian inaction against the potential CNF terrorists due to the perceived chances of any intelligence leak.

Also, it is evident that the Indian Air Force could neither detect nor intercept any fighter aircraft entering and violating its air space, especially in this particular case.

Why India doesn’t extend democracy in Myanmar?

The Indian policymakers have long trumpeted their (pseudo) democracy by calling themselves the largest democracy in the world. However, besides such rhetoric devoid of reality, there is an important question why India doesn’t want democracy in Myanmar? It is an undeniable fact that New Delhi has time and again deliberately refrained from condemning the violence orchestrated by the Military Junta of Myanmar against the Christian (Chin State) and Muslim (Rohingya in Rakhine State) ethnic minorities in Myanmar.

India-Myanmar Bilateral Trade

Till 2020-21, India and Myanmar have had a bilateral trade volume amounting to 1.6 billion USD, where India exported 871 million USD to Myanmar, and the latter exported 742 million USD worth of goods (except services) to the former. Perhaps, bilateral trade is hindering Indian policymakers from condemning violence against ethnic minorities in Myanmar.

Conclusions and Policy Options for Pakistan

In June 2015, India conducted a raid in Myanmar and then Pakistan’s Federal Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan reacted to the incident by making it clear that “India should not mistake Pakistan for Myanmar.” The Interior Minister also added that “our armed forces are fully capable of responding to any foreign aggression and Indian leaders should stop daydreaming.”

However, now, Myanmar has executed an air strike inside India in the name of destroying and dismantling terrorist safe havens. The latter is an important development that encourages Pakistan to look for such tactical options and by maintaining such rhetoric.

It is to be remembered here that the Indian Air Force violated Pakistan’s air space in February 2019 and dropped free-fall bombs hitting no targets on the ground. In response, the Pakistan Air Force carried out Operation Swift Retort and destroyed 2 Indian MiG-21 Bison fighter aircraft in aerial engagement and also deployed H-3 and H-4 air-launched stand-off guided missiles destroying Indian targets in the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). Operation Swift Retort humiliated India and its aerial warfighting capabilities.

The Next 75: Future of Pakistan-US Relations

By
Rabia Akhtar
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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) meets with Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari at the State Department in Washington, DC, September 26, 2022. (Photo by KEVIN LAMARQUE / POOL / AFP) (Photo by KEVIN LAMARQUE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Pakistan, unlike India, did not have the luxury to remain non-aligned for long since it neither had the resources nor institutions post-partition. Therefore, in a carefully crafted strategy, Pakistan placed a bet on United States and chose its side early on in  Cold War. Pakistan’s foremost threat perceptions emanated from India and that led to Pakistan joining U.S. orchestrated alliances like SEATO and CENTO even though their objectives were not directly aligned with those of Pakistan. The military and economic aid Pakistan received as part of joining those alliances helped Pakistan reinforce its security infrastructure helping it deal with its security dilemma vis India. The USSR did not provide Pakistan with any such opportunity to join military alliances like the U.S. did. So the U.S. was an obvious and rational choice for a smaller and weaker country like Pakistan in the early Cold War years.

The military and economic aid Pakistan received by US, helped Pakistan reinforce its security infrastructure helping it deal with its security dilemma vis India. The USSR did not provide Pakistan with any such opportunity like the US did. So U.S. was an obvious and rational choice for Pakistan.

Over a period of 75 years since the relationship established between the two countries, there have been several challenges. The first and foremost being that Pakistan has been unable to sell its threat perceptions vis-a-vis India, well to U.S. And for the U.S., the dilemma had been balancing one at the cost of the other. The second biggest challenge has been misinterpretation of the stated and perceived objectives of the relationship. The U.S. never promised Pakistan, under any agreement or treaty, that it would extend its security umbrella to Pakistan and protect it against Indian attack at any given point in time in history. Yet, Pakistan always perceived that since their relationship was stable, the U.S. would always come to Pakistan’s rescue if a call was given. This led to disappointments in 1965 and also in 1971. Even though the presence of USS Enterprise in Indian Ocean in 1971 was part of the U.S. signaling to show support for Pakistan, its mere presence did not alter the trajectory of the war. These two challenges gave birth to many misunderstandings between the two and set the tone for a relationship beset with mutual grievances. However, there were times when both benefitted mutually from this relationship, Pakistan more so than the U.S. At the height of its alliance with the U.S. during the 1980s, Pakistan not only benefited from receiving economic and military assistance to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan but it also became a threshold nuclear weapon state – a feat made possible by the U.S. turning a blind eye to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development.

Pakistan diversified its relations during the 1960s and opened up to China while being in a strategic alliance with the U.S. to fight the ChiComs. This alone speaks volumes about Pakistan’s potential as a small yet resilient country which has been reasonably balancing its relations with the U.S. and the rising major power, China, for decades now. If Pakistan can do it in the most difficult of decades in its history, there is no reason why it cannot continue to balance its relations with the U.S. and China in the coming decades as well.

De-dollarization is not the bandwagon Pakistan should be hopping on. The dominance of the US dollar is here to stay in the foreseeable future even though countries might want to reduce their vulnerability to fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar. If the past 75 years are any indicator of what the next 75 would be like, Pakistan will not be in a position to enact policies which will reduce its dependence on the U.S. financial system. The dependencies that are now perpetuated due to poor fiscal policies, leadership crisis, securitization of politics and lack of foresight to deal with the economic challenges of the country, Pakistan will not be in a position to break free in coming decades.

De-dollarization is not the bandwagon Pakistan should be hopping on. The dominance of the US dollar is here to stay in the foreseeable future even though countries might want to reduce their vulnerability to fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar.

What is the best course of action for Pakistan if one accepts the shortfalls and vulnerabilities as a reality? Post-COVID19 and post-Russian-Ukraine conflict, there is an emerging club of the most-sanctioned countries with Iran and Russia in the lead. China’s bold support for both Russia and Iran is unprecedented primarily given Chinese interests in the Middle East and Central Asia to ensure that China’s access to energy supply remains stable and secure. By keeping both Russia and Iran on its right geopolitical side, China also wants to undercut U.S.’ geopolitical influence in the region and is filling up the vacuum left after the hasty U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan after twenty years of military presence in the region.

For a country like Pakistan, all players in its immediate neighborhood as well as extra regional forces like the U.S. are extremely important for its survival, however, it does not need to pick and choose between a side.

As the U.S. moves towards de-globalization and reshoring, aiming to bring back outsourced manufacturing and production units back to the U.S. or moving away from its dependency on the global supply chains dominated by China, Pakistan needs to find its opportunity. Pakistan could benefit from the reshoring of U.S. companies by attracting FDI and offering low-cost workforce to attract manufacturing companies creating job opportunities for Pakistanis. While the U.S. is turning wheels to enable reshoring, Pakistani companies can integrate more closely into the U.S. supply chain by providing components and raw materials needed for reshoring operations. But for this direction to be taken where Pakistan positions and reorients itself to benefit from the dividends of geoeconomics, requires vision and leadership. It also requires looking beyond what India is doing and being constantly worried about how strategically it is now poised to provide the U.S. all that it needs for its Indo-Pacific strategy.

Pakistan needs to regain economic resilience, resolve its leadership crisis, align its foreign policy priorities with those of the major powers and balance its relations to benefit most from the changing trends globally.

There is much value in Pakistan-U.S. relations beyond strategy. What Pakistan needs to understand is that historically too, U.S. alliances in our region were never at the cost of the other. And they will not be so in the next 75 years. Pakistan needs to regain economic resilience, resolve its leadership crisis, align its foreign policy priorities with those of the major powers and balance its relations to benefit most from the changing trends globally.

Hybrid Threats: Policy options for Pakistan

By
Habiba Ali
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The 5th generation hybrid warfare is basically a theory of military strategy. The origins of such kind of warfare can be traced back to Sun Tzu’s masterpiece ‘Art of War’. In simple words, hybrid warfare involves an interchange or combination of conventional and unconventional warfare and instruments of disruption. These tools are mixed in a systematic manner to exploit the weaknesses of the target state and achieve desired results.

One of the most important results of the Second World War was the creation of the United Nations, with a focus on minimizing conventional wars. Even before 5th generation hybrid warfare, India has been an arch-rival of Pakistan since its creation. Both countries fought their first wars on the Kashmir issue less than a year after independence.

The national security and sovereignty of Pakistan is continuously facing hybrid threats both internally and externally from different state and non-state actors.

According to Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), India is involved in a huge campaign of ‘fifth-generation warfare’ to block Pakistan’s road to peace and prosperity. It stated that India is very much focused on utilizing all the elements of its national power to destabilize Pakistan in certain domains. The target is Pakistan’s economy, information system, military, and international reputation. Since June 2018, Pakistan was continuously on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list. The Indian state has always been there to spread fake news and create propaganda against Pakistan. Furthermore, India is also lobbying some international actors to push Pakistan into the blacklist of FATF. The Indian Prime Minister even expressed in an interview that he wants to see Pakistan bankrupt and blacklisted by FATF. In Oct 2022, Pakistan was officially removed from the FATF grey list.

The EU DisinfoLab has unveiled a network of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and forgery media organizations connected to India that for a long time have been committed to anti-Pakistan propaganda. According to the report “Indian Chronicles”, it was the largest network ever exposed. As per Stanford Internet Observatory’s (SIO) recent report, the Indian government is found backing social media accounts involved in spreading fake news and propaganda against Pakistan on a prominent social media platform. It was published under the title, ‘My Heart Belongs to Kashmir: An Analysis of a Pro-Indian Army Covert Influence Ope­ration on Twitter’.

The report stated that on August 24, Twitter shared 15 datasets of information operations with researchers in the Twitter Moderation Research Consortium for the purpose of independent analysis. It consisted of the accounts it identified and removed from the platform. One of these datasets consisted of 1,198 accounts that tweeted about Pakistan. Twitter suspended this network for breaching its platform manipulation and spam conditions. As a matter of fact, it stated that the tentative country of origin was India.

Moreover, the network was involved to portray rallies in Balochistan as anti-Pakistan protests. They also blamed the Pakistan military for committing human rights violations. Additionally, Tweets insisted that Pakistan is unsafe for Hindus, and Pakistan neglected its citizens in China when the coronavirus pandemic began. It also targeted women’s rights in Pakistan.

Even in past, Pakistan has experienced two high-profile terrorist attacks on highly secured military sites. First on the General Headquarters of the Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi on October 2009 and the second on the naval aviation base at PNS Mehran near Karachi on May 2011. Such incidents have given a chance to some rival states to do propaganda against Pakistan. They claimed that if such highly secured institutions are not secure in Pakistan, then there is a threat to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons as well.

Furthermore, incidents like the 2009 attack on Sri Lanka’s national cricket team and the killing of Chinese citizens at Karachi University on April 26, 2022, were aimed to strain Pakistan’s relations with the respective states. Moreover, these events were used to create the image of Pakistan as an insecure country in the eyes of the international community.

On August 14, 2021, the FBR data center was attacked by hackers. All the official websites operated by the tax machinery were brought down for 72 hours. This event was also a part of 5th-generation hybrid warfare against Pakistan.

The National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026 is very much clear regarding the present and future security threats faced by the country. For the first time, Pakistan is prepared to fight in five domains of war, as mentioned in the NSP: land, air, sea, cyber, and space. According to NSP, Pakistan will counter information-based cyber-attacks through the development of digital soldiers. While observing India’s investment in a variety of intrusive technologies, the NSP discusses Pakistan’s need to invest in advancing cyber security for protecting its infrastructure and securing its networks from intrusion.

Hybrid warfare has also been mentioned in the NSP, as a domain where the whole nation is needed to neutralize threats in unison.

As a foremost goal to counter the hybrid threats, the National security statement should be revised to bring all the stakeholders and state institutions such as PEMRA, PTA, NSCS & MCS on one page to decide the criteria for suspecting cybercriminals. Pakistan lacks advanced and sophisticated cybercrime control measures. For this reason, it requires massive economic investment into digital intelligence. Moreover, it needs to develop Artificial intelligence to perform successful undercover operations.

Most importantly, Pakistan needs to regulate its media properly. The role of media, particularly social media, has become very important in countering both internal and external hybrid threats. It has been an alarming situation that a major part of the country’s young population is falling prey to the bogus and anti-state propaganda that is being fabricated. Furthermore, educating the masses, and using propaganda as a counter tool can be helpful to fight hybrid warfare. In addition, promoting a sense of nationalism and democratic values among the citizens can also be crucial in countering the hybrid threat.

What to expect from President Xi Jinping’s Third Term?

By
Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi
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Chinese President Xi Jinping formally won an unprecedented third term opening the possibility for him to be among the country’s most powerful leaders since Mao Zedong. Xi has started his third term at a time when the world is in flux and new economic, political, and strategic alignments are in the works.

China, as it prepares to fulfill its second centennial goal of national rejuvenation by 2049 is also facing rising tensions with Washington over Taiwan, the war in Ukraine, and espionage claims after the U.S. shot down a Chinese weather balloon.

Domestically Chinese economy faces major difficulties, from slowing growth and a troubled real estate sector to a declining birthrate. As the parliament opened, China announced an economic growth target for the year at “around 5%.” This follows a 3% expansion in 2022, one of the country’s slowest growth rates since the 1970s and well below the official target of 5.5%. Xi will have to address these issues immediately and firmly to ensure a steady and robust economic recovery after three years of grueling lockdowns as part of the zero-COVID policy of China.

With the Chinese economy struggling, infusing a sense of optimism would be one of the president’s biggest challenges. It is, therefore, evident that China’s new cabinet will have no time to lose as economic and diplomatic challenges will test the incoming State Council. Reviving China’s stalled economy, blazing a new path for technological self-reliance, preparing for heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and strengthening China’s national security would, therefore, be the top priorities for Xi’s third term.

China’s new cabinet will have no time to lose as economic and diplomatic challenges will test the incoming State Council.

In the Chinese system of governance, the functions of the president are largely ceremonial. President Xi’s power comes from him being General Secretary of the Communist Party and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, positions which were earlier confirmed by the Communist Party at its 20th National congress in October 2022. The National Congress had also removed the condition of term limit term limits clearing the way for Xi to potentially rule for life and overtake China’s founding fathers Mao and Deng Xiaoping.

Li Qiang was elected premier or Xi’s second-in-command. He was the former party boss of Shanghai who oversaw the financial capital’s grueling two-month lockdown last year. Li is among a number of fresh faces in the powerful Politburo Standing Committee headed by Xi. The former vice-premier Han Zheng was elected as vice-president, and Zhao Leji, the former chief of the party’s top anti-corruption commission, as parliamentary chair. Both are members of China’s highest political decision-making body, the politburo standing committee.

The Two Sessions of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) are closely monitored both at home and abroad as they provide a deep insight into China’s direction in the coming five years. This year the NPC approved a sweeping set of reforms including Setting up a new financial sector watchdog and national data agency that may herald tighter restrictions on key sectors. A revamp of the Science and Technology Ministry was also approved which includes the creation of a science and technology commission to better coordinate efforts to tackle China’s hi-tech bottlenecks after Xi called for China to boost its capabilities in the face of rising tensions with Washington, which has moved to restrict China’s access to key chip technologies

The composition of the incoming cabinet is being viewed as an indication that Beijing will emphasize economic and scientific self-reliance for the next five years and more immediately on re-inflating China’s economy for post-COVID recovery. China’s incoming premier faces the daunting challenge of restoring growth and market confidence. Premier Li Qiang’s work is cut out as he tries to improve the economy by jacking up stimulus spending and putting President Xi Jinping’s slogan of “high-quality development” into practice. Efforts to shift the Chinese economy towards a more innovative, high-tech, and service-oriented model are underway. This will involve promoting research and development, investing in education and training, and encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation.

The property sector and local governments continue to struggle with debt, and efforts to rebalance the economy away from investment and towards consumption have yet to materialize and will need time to be successful.

Before Shanghai, Li Qiang also ran two of the country’s other economic powerhouses, the provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang. His experiences included welcoming Tesla to set up its first overseas factory and working with Alibaba Group Holding. It is expected that Li Qiang will lead in shaping and implementing macroeconomic policy in line with Xi’s emphasis on pursuing an integrated national strategy that reinforces both economic and scientific self-reliance.

Since the late 2010s, Beijing has taken steps to safeguard the domestic economy by enhancing resilience and technological self-reliance. It is, therefore, interesting to see that many of the new members of the Politburo have scientific backgrounds and solid track records running strategically critical state-owned enterprises and they have now taken top positions in the State Council. This is a clear signal that the new generation of Politburo technocrats will emphasize indigenous innovation to prepare for potential external shocks. This may trigger further aggressive technological competition with the U.S. Whether China will be successful in enhancing resilience and technological self-reliance remains to be seen as the policy orientation of the new cabinet crystalizes.

In a speech to delegates at the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, which runs alongside the NPC this week, Xi criticized Washington’s “containment, encirclement and suppression of China”. He said China must “have the courage to fight as the country faces profound and complex changes in both the domestic and international landscape”. Xi has also made it clear that he considers reunification with Taiwan a priority for his legacy, and has not ruled out the use of force.

Relations with the United States are at their lowest in decades with Washington imposing export controls on semiconductors and criticizing China for its close relations with Russia and China’s policy on the Ukraine war. So far China’s support for Russia has been political, but US officials have said they believe China is considering sending arms to Russia. The geopolitical environment is, therefore, an important factor that will affect China’s self-reliance initiative. A diplomatic reset with the U.S. and the European Union may be required to effectively deal with the domestic economic difficulties effectively. Some Western analysts believe that China will try to reassure the EU that Beijing will leverage its ties with Russia to restrain President Putin from the deployment of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. But fending off speculation about military support for Moscow’s war campaign, china’s attempt at peacemaking will be a challenge for the new diplomatic team.

Xi Jinping has been the leader of China since 2013, and during his first two terms, he consolidated his power and pursued an ambitious agenda to transform China’s economy and society.

Under his leadership, China has become a major player in international affairs, challenging the dominance of the United States and other Western powers. Xi Jinping’s third term will likely be characterized by continued efforts to strengthen China’s position globally and promote the CCP’s vision of a “new era” of socialism with Chinese characteristics. This will involve both domestic and foreign policy initiatives.

Xi’s third term as president marks a significant moment in the country’s history. As China continues to rise as a global power, Xi’s leadership is considered critical in determining China’s future orientation and its relationship with the rest of the world. As China moves towards its first centennial anniversary, Xi will focus on strengthening China’s military and strategic position. Under his leadership, China has expanded its military capabilities and asserted its territorial claims in the South China Sea. Xi is now seeking to modernize further and expand China’s armed forces while also pursuing a more assertive foreign policy that seeks to promote China’s strategic interests. This is achievable but certainly not easy as Xi himself has warned many times that China will sail on a stormy sea in the coming years.

Misleading Propaganda against Pakistan’s Nukes Fly in the Face of Evidence

By
Fahad Ahmad Misson
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Being a geostrategic fulcrum of world power, Pakistan’s nuclear program occupies the center stage in all the strategic headquarters around the world. Furthermore, Pakistan’s nuclear capability strengthens its geopolitical muscles to recalibrate its strategic trajectory and rebalance its priorities between the Great Power competitions. Besides, India’s nefarious designs to emerge as a regional hegemon and dismantle the territorial integrity of Pakistan are also thwarted due to the nuclear bulwark Pakistan has walled up against its arch-rival India.

Therefore, disarming Pakistan with its nuclear weapons is the only way forward to bend Pakistan to the preferred course of geopolitical ambitions, which will always remain an elusive dream of vested interests. Nevertheless, in the information age, it seems a plausible stratagem to spotlight Pakistan’s nuclear security and safety protocols as vulnerable to terrorist bids to obtain nuclear weapons or gain access to nuclear material. Particularly, the recent uptick in terrorist attacks since the Taliban takeover in 2021 provided an opportunity to peddle global concern over Pakistan’s ability to safeguard its nuclear arsenals.

For this purpose, a well-calculated propaganda campaign is orchestrated to build a narrative in order to blemish and malign Pakistan’s nuclear security system as weak and fragile. For instance, during DG IAEA’s visit to Pakistan, the rumor mills started churning out politically motivated insinuations based on unnecessary controversy, alleging that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons capability is falling victim to some concessions by the government to foreign powers.

Additionally, the narrative of Pakistan’s strategic irrelevance after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is also deployed to reinforce the impression that the nukes would fall into the hands of extremists. Such narratives could be deployed successfully to achieve political mileage, but a strong case can never be built against Pakistan by presenting a flawed and extremely distorted landscape of Pakistan’s robust and comprehensive nuclear security regime. The flurry of such misleading statements compelled Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to issue a strong rebuff, stating in a tweet, “the misleading speculations about Pakistan’s nuclear and missile program are unfortunate, adding that the stringent, fool-proof and multi-layered security safeguards, duly testified by IAEA, are in place. The Prime Minister said our nuclear program represents the unwavering consensus of the nation and is for deterrence.”

Pakistan is a strategic player and will remain a strategic player in the region, irrespective of the likes and dislikes of its rivals. Furthermore, Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities are the safest and most secure in the world.

The geopolitical minds and strategic pundits forgot that Pakistan’s nuclear security culture is crowned to have achieved international recognition for putting in place comprehensive nuclear security measures and elaborate arrangements for radioactive material protection. The recent statement of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi is one such glaring manifestation of how Pakistan’s nuclear power is comprehensively protected and secured which led the IAEA Chief to declare that the future of Pakistan’s nuclear power is promising as the country has a world-class and impeccable nuclear safety record. Dismissing all the rumors and insinuations about Pakistan’s nuclear program, DG IAEA further observed that there is strong political support for new nuclear power plants in Pakistan, adding that the country has technical and engineering capacity for new NPP, including small modular reactors.

Pakistan shall invest in nuclear energy to achieve Sustainable Development Goals and can protect the climate by reducing oil, coal and gas import bills. Furthermore, US General poses confidence in Pakistan’s nuclear security.

General Michael Kurilla said he has a great relationship with army chief General Asim Munir. “I am confident in their nuclear security procedures,” says Commander of US CENTCOM Gen. Michael E. Kurilla during a testimony before the Senate Arms Services Committee in the US, expressing confidence in the command & control structure of Pakistan’s nuclear prog. Apart from it, The US non-proliferation watchdog Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), generally referred to as a nonpartisan, nonprofit international security organization, has put Pakistan atop India in its ability to ensure the safety, security, and protective measures of its nuclear assets with the more uncompromising and sturdy approach. By the yardstick of the NTI Nuclear Security Index, Pakistan enhanced its overall score by 7 points, climbing to the aggregate position of 19 in its 2020 assessment, leaving behind India with a wide margin of 9 points.

Primarily focused on preventing nuclear and biological threats endangering mankind, the US foreign policy think-tank Nuclear Threat Initiative NTI graded Pakistan as the ‘most improved country’ in terms of its nuclear capabilities after having carried out a study on worldwide nuclear materials security for 2020. The measures were strict and so were the standards upon which the stance, covers, and approaches of republicans were gauged: “A state is solely responsible for guaranteeing the security of all nuclear and other radioactive materials, associated infrastructure, and activities that fall within its purview. This is known as the sine qua non of nuclear security. Therefore, a robust nuclear security regime goes much beyond its physical components. Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn created NTI in 2001 to transform global security by bringing up systemic solutions to nuclear and biological dangers putting humanity at risk. Furthermore, the Nuclear Security Index recognized that Pakistan made remarkable headway in adopting “new on-site physical protection and cyber security regulations and improving insider threat protection measures” at a time when it concluded that the advancement in international security has held up to a great extent in other parts of the world. Indeed a well-earned recognition Pakistan achieved.

Pakistan’s nuclear security superstructure is supported by a network of organizational frameworks and rooted in internationally defined practices. These security measures and practices are embedded in the national legislative, regulatory, and administrative frameworks, turning it into a broad and well-developed nuclear infrastructure in the world.

The NTI Index has duly noted these improvements on new regulations which in turn provide ‘sustainable security benefits’. Thus, Pakistan is distinguished to have evolved a remarkable and robust nuclear security regime and culture to protect its nuclear installations and secure its nuclear weapons where no incidents of theft or sabotage, or stolen nuclear material are reported. But, its eastern neighbor appears to be improving on the illicit Uranium market where in February, eight people including two Indian Nationals were arrested in Nepal for being involved in the illegal trade of ‘uranium like substance.’ It was widely reported that radioactive substance was trafficked from India. Again, India’s nuclear security enclave came under serious criticism for its failure to prevent the theft and illegal sale of nuclear and highly radioactive uranium of 7 kilograms, worth 210 million Indian rupees, earlier in May 2021. For the last two decades, more than 200 kilograms of radioactive and nuclear material has been stolen from Indian nuclear installations. The recurring phenomenon of theft and illicit trade of nuclear and radioactive material eloquently testifies to the failure of India’s nuclear security system.

By contrast, Pakistan, unwaveringly, is dedicated to advancing the goal of nuclear security and has taken the initiative to work with other nations to advance nuclear safety and security. It has made sure that all nuclear and radioactive materials, as well as any infrastructure connected to them, are safeguarded everywhere. Pakistan’s national legislative, regulatory, and administrative structure serves as the foundation for its nuclear security regime. It goes without saying that Pakistan has a sizable and well-developed nuclear infrastructure that has received systematic support from the US, Europe, and—most importantly—China.

Furthermore, Pakistan’s nuclear architecture and security enclave is designed in line with the IAEA Nuclear Security Culture Implementing Guide—Nuclear Security Series No. 7 (2008) because IAEA Fundamental Principle A of INFCIRC/Rev-5 guides that the prime national responsibility for the “establishment, implementation and maintenance of a physical protection regime” rests entirely with the state. In this regard, Pakistan’s strong nuclear security culture featured autonomous regulatory bodies empowered with legal authority to fulfill their defined nuclear security responsibilities. These institutions include the National Command Authority (NCA), Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA), and Strategic Export Control Division. Furthermore, Pakistan is ardently committed to the Amended 2005 Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM) and has ratified “Regulations on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and Nuclear Installations PAK/925.” These international legal devices strengthen security culture, reinforcing the physical protection of nuclear material and facilities. Pakistan’s Nuclear Emergency Management System (NEMS) is meant to deal with possible radiological emergencies. Inside Pakistan’s nuclear structure, the NCA – SPD is entrusted with the foremost responsibility to reform the mindsets of individuals and to maintain enhanced oversight over nuclear facilities. Pakistan’s Strategic Export Control Act 2004 outlines a set of controls, enabling the government to monitor and supervise the export, re-export, transit of goods, and trans-shipment, of materials, technologies, and equipment that could result in the development, production, stockpiling maintenance, designing, or use of nuclear and biological weapons, coupled with their delivery mechanisms. According to a report, Pakistan has deployed a highly trained, well-equipped, highly skilled force numbering over 25000 troops to guard Pakistan’s nuclear stocks and facilities the Strategic Plans Division (SPD). Pakistan’s national detection architecture comprises specialized radiation detection equipment at multiple entries and exit points with a bid to block all attempts at illicit trafficking of nuclear and radioactive materials. Moreover, as part of its capacity building and human resource development, the significant institutions of Pakistan’s Centre of Excellence on Nuclear Security (PCENS), the National Institute of Safety and Security (NISAS), and the Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences (PIEAS) were founded with the international cooperation, particularly the US through IAEA.

Looking at the multilateral engagements, Pakistan has shared six reports to the UNSCR 1540 Committee sufficiently validating its nuclear infrastructure capability for safety and controlling the exchange of sensitive materials and technologies.

Pakistan effectively maintained close liaison with the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT) for the development of its guidelines.

Additionally, Pakistan strictly adhered to several global legal instruments such as the amended Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM), the International Convention on Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism (ICSANT), and the IAEA Code of Conduct on the Safety and Security of Radioactive Sources and its two Supplementary Guidance documents.

In the category of Security and Control Measures, Pakistan continued to improve its grading over time as it introduced new regulations, increasing its score by +8 in 2014, +2 in 2016, and +6 in 2018. The set of new regulations is comprised of on-site physical protection in 2014, a cyber security regime in 2016, and insider threat protection in 2018. Pakistan remained ahead of other countries in Security and Control Measures ranking by +25 whereas its arch-rival India demonstrated poor performance remaining at the lowest rank of 28th in overall security.

In this scenario, President Biden’s uncalled-for remarks, terming Pakistan “may be one of the most dangerous” in the world possessing “nuclear weapons without any cohesion” can only be described as ill-advised and surfaced owing to ignorance of the POTUS. Later, the State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel stated with an obvious bid to do damage control of Biden’s remarks, that “the United States is confident of Pakistan’s commitment and its ability to secure its nuclear assets.”

Thus, the global concern over the so-called failed security of Pakistan’s atomic weapons is one such account advanced for subterraneous reasons. In spite of the fact that Pakistan has been answering great to it, the flawed narratives always seem to drive uphill with morality standards nose-diving!

US Cyber Policy 2023: Countering Russia and China

By
Tayyaba Khurshid
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Digital technologies have become an essential component of state governance, as governments have progressively embraced digitization across all aspects of their machinery, including but not limited to economics, healthcare, education, business, and commerce.

The advent of the digital revolution has brought about a significant transformation in the global landscape, characterized by heightened interconnectivity and a proliferation of opportunities within the digital domain.

However, one must also be cognizant that being a denizen of cyberspace exposes individuals to an array of potential cyber threats. Consequently, nation-states have formulated a plethora of policies aimed at safeguarding their cyber domain, while simultaneously implementing precautionary measures to thwart potential cyber aggression from adversarial entities. Notably, the current state of the digital ecosystem is marked by its complexity, precipitated by the pervasive lack of cyber security infrastructure, and the upsurge of diverse and sophisticated cyber threats. Cyber security has emerged as an indispensable prerequisite for achieving sustained economic growth, ensuring data privacy and confidentiality, and bolstering national defense capabilities. To this end, the United States has proactively taken measures to secure its cyberspace, through close collaboration with its allies and partners, to address a range of pertinent cyber security concerns and craft effective policies to mitigate such threats. The Biden administration has put forth an integrated deterrence strategy, which encompasses a novel cyber security policy aimed at fostering robust partnerships and collaborations with allies to ensure the security of cyberspace. The overarching objective of this policy is to transform the digital realm into a conduit for progress and inclusivity, as opposed to a medium for coercion and repression.

NEW CYBER SECURITY POLICY:

The United States cyber security policy consists of a range of laws, regulations, strategies, and practices designed to protect the nation’s information infrastructure, networks, and systems from cyber threats.

The primary goals of U.S. cyber security policy are to secure the nation’s critical infrastructure, such as energy, financial, transportation, and telecommunications systems, from cyber threats that could cause significant disruptions to daily life.

It works to protect national security by preventing cyber espionage, cyber terrorism, and cyber warfare threats from foreign adversaries.US supports innovation and economic growth by protecting intellectual property and sensitive business information from cyber threats and works with international partners to promote global cyber security norms, information sharing, and coordinated responses to cyber threats.

CHINA AND RUSSIA IN US CYBER SECURITY POLICY

China and Russia are considered to be major cyber threats to the United States and therefore play a significant role in U.S. cyber security policy. Both countries have been accused of engaging in cyber espionage, cyber-attacks, and other malicious cyber activities against U.S. targets, including government agencies, private businesses, and critical infrastructure. The U.S. government has implemented a number of measures to address these threats, including sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and cyber deterrence measures. In particular, the U.S. government has taken steps to strengthen its own cyber defenses, increase information sharing and collaboration with allies, and engages in offensive cyber operations against foreign adversaries. China and Russia have also been the targets of U.S. cyber operations and sanctions in response to their malicious cyber activities. For example, the U.S. government has imposed sanctions on Russian entities and individuals, including government officials and cyber criminals, for their involvement in cyber-attacks against U.S. targets.

China and Russia’s activities in cyberspace have shaped U.S. cyber security policy and led to increased attention and resources devoted to protecting U.S. networks and systems from foreign threats.

WHAT PAKISTAN CAN LEARN FROM US CYBER SECURITY POLICY?

The US cyber security policy emphasizes collaboration and information sharing among government agencies, the private sector, and international partners. Pakistan can learn from this approach by fostering collaboration and cooperation among government agencies, industry, and academic institutions to build a robust cybersecurity ecosystem. It also emphasizes risk management, including identifying, assessing, and mitigating cyber security risks. Pakistan can adopt a similar approach by identifying and prioritizing critical assets, assessing the risks associated with those assets, and implementing appropriate cybersecurity measures. Moreover, the importance of cyber security education and awareness for all stakeholders is a key strategy of the US in Cyberspace and Pakistan can improve its cyber policy by developing cyber security awareness programs to educate and train government employees, private sector stakeholders, and the general public. Pakistan can learn from the US policy of giving importance to incident response and recovery plans to minimize the impact of cyber-attacks by developing and implementing effective incident response and recovery plans to mitigate the impact of cyber-attacks. In a nutshell, the US cyber security policy emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring and evaluation of cyber security measures to identify and address emerging threats and Pakistan should also implement continuous monitoring and evaluation of its cyber security measures to ensure that they remain effective and relevant over time.

Media Curbs and Media Limitations in India

By
Moazam Khan
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Media plays a major role in informing people about happenings all around the world i.e., from Asia to Australia we know everything through media today. With media getting digitalized in the 21st-century people can find out anything, and they buy the information they are getting through a click on their smart devices.  It’s human nature that we all have the curiosity to know everything happening around us. For centuries human beings rely on information, but little they know the consumption of information affects our perception related to things. Media is an important part of our life has the power to shape and build our perception, as the news we consume from media tends to form a public opinion.

Many states rely on media houses to expand their foreign, economic and political policies designs. Indian media is being used as mouthpiece of the government in order to accomplish political objectives.

Media has been playing pivotal role reshaping global politics. It has direct implications on society and playing important role in perception management. Social media usage is one of the most popular online activities. In 2021, over 4.26 billion people were using social media worldwide, a number projected to increase to almost six billion in 2027. Many states in the world are relying on media houses to expand their foreign, economic and political policies designs. In some cases, media is being used as mouthpiece of the government in order to accomplish certain objectives.

The EU Disinfo Lab report has revealed a huge Indian network propagating falsehood influencing EU Parliamentarians and international public opinion against other countries including Pakistan.

India is prime example of this controlled media environment where government is using media houses to enhance its outreach and projecting the success of ruling politicians including Prime Minister Modi. Indian media has been repeatedly exposed globally for its irresponsible reporting/ peddling fake news especially with regards to propaganda against Pakistan. The EU Disinfo Lab report has revealed a huge Indian network propagating falsehood influencing EU Parliamentarians and international public opinion against other countries including Pakistan.  There are numerous examples of international news channels such as France 24 and BBC which at different occasions pointed towards the ethical lacking in reporting by Indian news channels.

A careful analysis of the Indian media reporting on the subject highlight a visible pattern of propaganda

Pakistan has been the primary target of Indian state sponsored falsehood, recently Indian media with a lapse of two years have again started a malicious propaganda campaign accusing Pakistan for cross border terrorism in IIOJK. A careful analysis of the Indian media reporting on the subject highlight a visible pattern of propaganda. Since the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A of the Indian constitution three years back, Indian media started claiming rapid improvement in state of normalcy in the troubled occupied region of Jammu and Kashmir.

The tall claims by Indian military command also supported Indian state narrative. The statements of GOC 15 Corps deployed in IIOJK bear the testimony.  “We have stopped infiltration to a large extent. In 2020 there were 130 attempts of infiltration in Kashmir; this year, the number is less than 30, the decline in the infiltration incidents from across the borders was due to the Indian Army’s effective measures”.

Indian propaganda regarding surge in cross border terrorism from Pakistan seems that Indian government have ulterior motives to build a data base to intrude and invade Pakistan.

Leading Indian media houses be it print or electronic are working as mouthpieces of BJP for the propogation of Hindutva driven policies of ruling party. Leading Indian newspaper Economic Times highlighted GOC 15 Corps statement “At least in the Kashmir Valley, there have been zero ceasefire violations. Also, there has been no instigation from across the border”. Interestingly for continuous two years after the Indian highly illegal move to strip the Kashmiris from their right of autonomy accorded as per the UNSC resolution, India boosted the military achievements of completely seizing cross border terrorism. Moreover the Indian government and senior army leadership trumpeted about bringing level of so-called militancy to near zero.

The latest Indian propaganda regarding surge in cross border terrorism from Pakistan seems that Indian government have ulterior motives to build a data base to intrude and invade Pakistan. International community must come forward and caution India to refrain from the state sponsored policy of falsehood to initiate propaganda campaigns against Pakistan. Pakistan has time and again reiterated its stance of solving Kashmir problem through peaceful dialogue in line with the UNSC resolution.

Indian media is proliferating blunt lies while targeting certain organizations, they are doing this fuss and propaganda at the behest of incumbent warmongering Indian establishment.

International media has been wise in this regard while giving any news or opinion. They are somehow following proper journalistic approach before breaking any news. However, in Indian case, the situation is different. They are proliferating blunt lies while targeting certain individuals, groups or organizations. It is pertinent to mention here that they are doing this fuss and propaganda at the behest of incumbent warmongering Indian establishment.

Likewise, Information, transmitted through communication or media, plays an important role in the communication between individuals and communities. This information raises awareness about the events. On the other hand, information in news is not always conveyed correctly. Agenda-setting is the most important media perception theory which refers to the media’s coverage of a particular issue that becomes the focus of public attention. In simpler words, the media gives importance to a particular topic to shape public opinion.

Divided G20 Foreign Minister’s Summit in India

By
Amna Nazakat
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The meeting of G20 Foreign Ministers (a group of industrialized and developing nations) wrapped up in New Delhi with no consensus on the Ukraine war. The Russian aggression in Ukraine and Chinese escalating global supremacy dominated much of the talks. Soon after the meeting in New Delhi, Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar said there were divergences on the issue of war in Ukraine which we could not reconcile as various parties held differing views. In a nod to fears that the increasingly rift between US and its allies on one side and Russia and China on other appears likely to widen further, PM Modi contended that multilateralism is in crisis today.

India wants its G20 presidency this year to focus on issues like alleviating poverty and climate finance, but the Ukraine war and its effects are set to dominate the agenda. Last month, a meeting of G20 finance ministers in Bengaluru failed to agree on a common statement after Russia and China sought to water down language on the Ukraine war.

India has been positioning itself as a leading voice of developing countries known as Global South in recent years. India wants its G20 presidency this year to focus on issues like alleviating poverty and climate finance, but the Ukraine war and its effects are set to dominate the agenda.

India has been positioning itself as a leading voice of developing countries known as Global South in recent years. Now, as President of G20 block, Delhi could not have a bigger stage on which to deliver. Global 19 wealthiest nations plus EU account for 85% of global economic output and two-thirds of its population. But as its head of states meeting, to be held later this year in September, in Delhi, any broader agreements that India hopes to deliver will largely depend on the war in Ukraine.

Indian own position has come in for scrutiny and reproach too. It has refrained from directly criticizing Russia, with which it has long-standing ties, while increasing imports of Russian oil. New Delhi’s non-aligned approach initially did not please Western powers but an understanding seems to have evolved.

Indian own position has come in for scrutiny and reproach too. It has refrained from directly criticizing Russia, with which it has long-standing ties, while increasing imports of Russian oil. New Delhi’s non-aligned approach initially did not please Western powers but an understanding seems to have evolved.

The presence Chinese and Russian diplomats in G20 has been severely hurting Western intentions to pass joint statements against Russian aggressions in Ukraine. India will never follow Western model to condemn Russian aggressions. Indian own position has come in for scrutiny and reproach too. It has refrained from directly criticizing Russia, with which it has long-standing ties, while increasing imports of Russian oil. New Delhi’s non-aligned approach initially did not please Western powers but an understanding seems to have evolved. India may not have criticized Russia directly but it has talked about the importance of “the UN Charter, international law, and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states” in its past statements on Ukraine.

India will come under pressure to harden its stand against Russia at the G20 talks. There are other points of divergence as well in G20. For instance, Indian ties with Beijing have been frosty due to tensions on their disputed border. The spy balloon controversy has further strained Sino-US ties and the relationship between West and Russia is as bad as ever. Meanwhile, India prides itself on its ability to balance rival relationships but given the extent and the scale of the bitterness and geopolitical tensions within this group, it will have to work harder.

India will come under pressure to harden its stand against Russia at the G20 talks. There are other points of divergence as well in G20. For instance, Indian ties with Beijing have been frosty due to tensions on their disputed border.

In domestic political environment of India, Modi government will also be under pressure to deliver results as it invested heavily in promoting a G20 summit taking place in India under Modi’s leadership. He will want to show he has been able to make Indian position stronger in the world, especially in the run-up to campaigning for next year’s general elections. Arguably India’s most celebrated event of the year, the G20 summit has been heavily promoted domestically, with sprawling billboards featuring Modi’s face plastered across the country. The domestic narrative in India is that the G20 summit is being used as a big banner in Modi’s election campaign to show he’s a global statesman.

India has strong ties with Moscow dating back to Cold War and New Delhi remains heavily reliant on Russia for military equipment. This is a vital link given India’s ongoing tensions at its shared Himalayan border with an increasingly assertive China. At the same time, New Delhi has been growing closer to West as leaders attempt to counter the rise of Beijing, placing India in a strategically comfortable position.

Unless and until Ukraine war doesn’t stop, the economic crisis cannot be managed. Russian withdrawal from Ukraine can give a hope to reshape the global world order. So the purpose of this meeting failed and it is a great diplomatic embarrassment for India. Similarly, with plummeting ties between Washington and Beijing after the US military shot down Chinese spy balloon that flew over American territory, India have to carefully drive difficult negotiations between conflicting viewpoints.

The leading international human rights watchdogs must take serious notice of the nationalist policies undertaken by Modi government in order to suppress dissident voices and target anti-government people.

Domestically, Modi’s Hindu-nationalist and populist politics have polarized the nation. While PM Modi remains immensely popular in a country where about 80% of population is Hindu, his government has been repeatedly criticized for a clampdown on free speech and discriminatory policies toward minority groups. The leading international human rights watchdogs must take serious notice of the nationalist policies undertaken by Modi government in order to suppress dissident voices and target anti-government people.

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