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China’s brokered Saudi-Iran Deal: A Fragile Breakthrough

By
Nisar Ali
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6

The latest agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, mediated by China, has shocked and perplexed the international community. This peace agreement is significant because it represents a departure from the traditional alliances and rivalries that have dominated diplomacy for centuries. China, which is now displacing the United States as the new major actor, mediated this agreement. The Americans, who have played a major role in the Middle East for the past 75 years, are currently watching from the sidelines while China is actively playing diplomacy on the ground. And the Israelis, who have been courting the Saudis to gain an advantage over their shared enemies in Tehran, are now unsure of its future.

The sudden Saudi-Iran détente mediated by China after two years long backdoor diplomatic efforts yet no details have been made public raised the question about the reliability of this historic deal.

It is noteworthy that Iran and Saudi Arabia started a sporadic dialogue in 2021, with Iraq’s mediation. Oman was also participating in facilitating diplomacy but after five rounds of negotiations held in Iraq between April 2021 and April 2022, Tehran and Riyadh were unable to come to a consensus. The Sunnis of Riyadh and the Shiites of Tehran might not have put aside all of their profound and vehement disagreements as a result of this peace agreement. Given that it was put on a cautious two-month timetable to iron out details, it is possible that this new agreement to exchange ambassadors may not even be fully implemented in the end. Since the past has demonstrated that the relationship between these two countries has been unstable, it is still unclear whether this peace agreement will be long-lasting.

It is observed that Iran is committed to ironing out the differences and materializing the deal but Saudi Arabia is still hesitant to reopen its embassy in Tehran. Iran reopened its embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on June 6, 2023. According to reports, Iran has appointed Alireza Enayati, a former representative to Kuwait (2014–2019) and director of Gulf affairs at the foreign ministry, as its ambassador to Saudi Arabia. During a ceremony, Alireza Bikdeli, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for consular affairs, said: “The region will move Inshallah [God willing] towards greater cooperation and convergence to achieve stability, prosperity, and progress.” Saudi Arabia still had not appointed an ambassador or announced when its embassy in Iran would reopen. It shows a clear indication that Riyadh is not yet willing to completely materialize the deal without engaging the United States as the biggest security guarantor.

The Kingdom’s choice in these shifting security calculations is to either defuse tensions with Iran or to strengthen the current security assurances it receives from the US by utilizing great power competition to its interest and diversifying its security fulfillment. Riyadh appears to have adopted a multifaceted approach. On the one hand, there is diplomatic engagement with Iran to deter threats through diplomacy. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia aims to take advantage of multilateral diplomacy to add a new security guarantor having more leverage over Tehran which is China in this case.

It is crucial to highlight that these changing dynamics in the Gulf do not reflect an effort from Riyadh to replace the United States; rather, they aim to engage China in the areas where U.S. policy has appeared to be ineffective.

Beyond the complexities between Riyadh and Tehran, there are several internal and external spoilers that might derail reconciliation between the two nations. On the internal level, conservative voices in both nations have profited to some extent from the other being demonized. While voices suspicious of Iran may still influence Saudi policy and sow doubts about the value of the deal, the difficulty is even greater on the Iranian side. Major initiatives in Iran’s foreign policy have shown to be susceptible to intra-Factional conflict. Although the conservative forces now in power in Tehran appear to embrace the agreement as a whole, it is not improbable that some groups may benefit from tensions with Saudi Arabia once more as they compete for votes in the coming presidential election.

There are also a lot of other factors that might ruin the rapprochement. The deal has impacted Israel and drawn scathing condemnation from the prime minister’s office as well as opposition leader Yair Lapid, who dubbed it “a total and dangerous foreign policy failure of the Israeli government.” Israel suffered a setback to its strategic objective of uniting with Arab states under the shared Iranian threat. Israel could be persuaded that the so-called “Iranian threat” is no longer a point of strategic convergence with Arab governments; therefore, it might also try to sabotage Arab-Iranian reconciliation to relieve some of the pressure from the region. For instance, after the agreement was reached, Israel escalated its airstrikes in Syria, which killed members of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, raising tensions and endangering the deal if Iran chose to retaliate.

Even though the deal did not satisfy Saudi Arabia’s and Iran’s security concerns, it has provided an opportunity that, at least shortly, has made it possible to change the security structure in the Gulf region in a way that benefits the whole Middle East.

Middle Eastern countries are experiencing a historic shift, providing opportunities to forge new connections, defuse tensions, and create an ecosystem for regional integration. Yet the ongoing tensions in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and other conflict zones, the recent outbreak of civil war in Sudan, and the general difficulties posed by tense relations between Iran, Israel, and several Gulf state all contribute to the region’s continued unease. Therefore, it is still too early to determine the long-term effects of the still-fragile Iranian-Saudi reconciliation.

Promoting Tourism in Ex Fata: Challenges and Opportunities

By
Saqib Mahsood
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2

Tourism is considered to be one of the most vital industries in the world. The industry not only fuels economic growth but also promotes cultural exchange and provides employment opportunities for local communities.

In Pakistan, the tourism industry plays a crucial role in boosting the country’s economy. However, the rise of terrorism and insurgency in some parts of the country has deeply affected the tourism industry, particularly in Ex-Fata Pakistan.

Ex Fata is a region consisting of seven tribal districts that were previously considered a hotbed of militancy and terrorism. Despite the security challenges, Ex Fata has abundant natural beauty and cultural heritage, making it an attractive destination for tourists. The region is blessed with rich and diverse topography – from snow-capped mountains to breathtaking valleys, and from exotic tea estates to historical archaeological sites, it has everything a tourist could wish for. It is a potential hot spot for adventure tourism such as hiking, rock climbing, and rafting, as well as religious tourism since there are many shrines of spiritual leaders in Ex Fata. However, the negative impact of terrorism cannot be underestimated. The presence of violent extremists in the region has disrupted the lives and livelihoods of locals and discouraged tourists from visiting. Terrorist activities have destroyed the infrastructures and cultural sites that are essential for tourism. The region has witnessed countless incidents of bombings, targeted killings, and kidnappings – all of which have contributed to the deterioration of the tourism sector in the region.

Tourism plays a significant role in the economic growth of any country, and Pakistan is no exception. The government’s plan to promote tourism in Ex Fata is a positive step towards further boosting Pakistan’s economy while creating new employment opportunities for locals.

The region has natural beauty and cultural heritage, making it an attractive destination for tourists. The government’s investment in the development of tourist-friendly infrastructure and services, and its focus on eco-tourism, can be a game-changer for the region.

Local businesses can benefit from tax incentives and subsidies, which can help them expand their businesses and provide better services to tourists. Collaborations with tribal vloggers can be an effective way to create more engaging and informative content about the region, which can attract tourists. However, security and stability are crucial to the growth of the tourism industry in the region. The government should take strict measures to prevent violent extremist activities and invest in training and equipping the local police force with modern security measures to boost the confidence of tourists visiting the region.

The decline in the tourism industry in Ex Fata has resulted in devastating economic consequences for locals. The industry serves as a critical source of income for many locals, including hotel owners, tour operators, taxi drivers, and souvenir vendors. The government’s investment plan and focus on eco-tourism can help revive the industry and create new employment opportunities for the locals. Tax incentives and subsidies to local businesses such as hotels, restaurants, and tour operators can be a significant boost to the industry. The security and stability of the region are essential to the growth of the industry. The government should take strict measures to prevent violent extremist activities and invest in modern security measures to boost tourists’ confidence in visiting the region. Overall, the government’s plan to promote tourism in Ex Fata is an optimistic step towards further boosting Pakistan’s economy while preserving the region’s cultural heritage

Despite the security challenges, a ray of hope is visible in the form of the government’s plan to promote tourism in the region. The government of Pakistan has pledged to invest heavily in the development of tourist-friendly infrastructure and services in Fata. The government’s tourism policy includes the development of roads, hotels, hospitals, and airports in prominent tourist destinations, which would attract visitors. Additionally, the government is promoting eco-tourism in the region, involving the local community in these endeavors to empower them economically. Besides the government’s initiatives, several measures can be taken to foster the growth of tourism in Ex Fata. One of the vital steps is to encourage and support local entrepreneurs and communities involved in the tourism sector.

The government can provide tax incentives or subsidies to local businesses such as hotels, restaurants, and tour operators. This can help them reduce costs, expand their businesses, and provide better services to tourists.

In addition to government initiatives and collaborations with tribal vloggers such as Jamshed Burki can also be a game-changer in promoting tourism in the region. Jamshed Burki, a prominent YouTuber, has showcased the beauty and culture of the region in his videos, attracting a massive audience from all over the world. By supporting these local content creators and featuring their content, the government can create more engaging and informative content, ultimately attracting more tourists. the involvement of local communities can also play a critical role in promoting tourism in Ex Fata. Local communities can provide unique insights into the region’s culture, history, and traditions, making tourists feel more connected and engaged. The government can involve local communities in promoting tourism through community-based tourism programs, where visitors can immerse themselves in local cultures and traditions while supporting local businesses. Such programs can provide more sustainable income streams for locals, reducing their dependence on volatile industries and encouraging them to preserve their cultural heritage.

Furthermore, the government can also consider promoting Ex Fata’s tourism potential beyond Pakistan’s borders. International marketing and promotion of the region’s natural beauty, rich culture, and unique traditions can help foster cross-border cultural exchange while attracting more foreign tourists. International collaborations, such as joint tourism ventures between Pakistan and other countries, can also enhance cultural exchange and international trade and investment.

The promotion of tourism in Ex Fata is not only vital for the region’s economic development but also for preserving its cultural heritage and traditions and creating new opportunities for the locals. The government’s investment in infrastructure, security measures, and eco-tourism, along with collaborations with tribal vloggers and local communities, can help foster the growth of the tourism industry in Ex Fata.

The promotion of Ex Fata’s tourism potential outside Pakistan, through international marketing and collaboration, can also enhance cross-border cultural exchange, trade, and investment.

The government should prioritize the safety and security of locals and tourists while ensuring the sustainable development of the region’s tourism industry.

Russian-Ukraine Conflict: Clash of Civilizations?

By
Maria Mansab
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7

Huntington wrote in his book “The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order “In the post-cold War era, the most significant differences between peoples will be cultural not ideological, dogmatic, or economic. The clash of civilizations will dominate world politics and the future battle lines of the world will be fault lines between civilizations. Clash of civilizations. With his notion that countries would return to their historical and cultural foundations, he foresaw the Ukrainian issue, and the cleft countries will create a great power conflict.

Ukraine is a cleft country separated along the topographical, historical, sacred, and cultural lines; western Ukraine’s inclination towards Europe and Eastern Ukraine and Crimea is in the trajectory of Orthodox Russia.

Huntington argues that Ukraine could fragment along its fault lines into two units. Most civilization blocs developing in the post–Cold War world, Huntington contended, would have ordinary leaders, or “core nations,” such as China, Russia, and USA. These basic states are critical for dealing with the issues that will arise in cleft countries like Ukraine. The United States’ approach to Ukraine has been the polar conflict of what Huntington would have recommended. It has been a crusade for the republic that has resulted in a US-backed upheaval in Kyiv, a snub to acknowledge any authentic Russian interests in Crimea and eastern Ukraine contempt of their strong historical bonds and the patronage of an undefined proxy war in eastern Ukraine.

Huntington’s theory of the Clash of Civilizations is surprisingly valuable in assessing the current Ukrainian conflict. The issue is that the dividing line is not only between the civilizations of Ukraine and Russia but also within the civilization of Ukraine. It’s vital to recall that modern Ukraine is a product of its Soviet history and that Soviet leaders established borders based on political concerns rather than Huntington’s ideas, with little regard for local cultures, dialects, faiths, or mentality. Putin clash of civilizations The crisis in Ukraine began in 2013 against the Ukrainian President and Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 to protect the rights of Russian citizens and Russian speakers in Crimea and Southeast Ukraine. These crises highlighted the ethnic divisions and later on, Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Eastern Ukraine declared independence from Ukraine. Over the last few years, there was an increasing demographic, political, and economic transformation in Ukraine. Demographically, Eastern Ukraine is inclined with Russian and Communist Influence while Western Ukraine and Central Ukraine are influenced by West and Capitalism. The society of Ukraine was tilting toward the Western form of governance. Eastern Ukraine’s population is influenced by the Orthodox Russian regime while Western Ukraine’s population wants a Western form of democracy.

In the political structure of Ukraine, the parliament has a tilt toward Europe led by the PM while the President of Ukraine till 2014 influenced by Russia

Bruno Macaes has explained that the world is divided into “Civilization States” Great powers with a shared culture that strive to become universes unto themselves, possibly each with its own nuclear umbrella rather than to rule the world. In this light, the invasion of Ukraine appears to be a bid for the “Russian world” — a “largely self-contained technological civilization, complete with its own IT ecosystem, space agenda, and technological visualizations stretching from Brest to Vladivostok,” According to Russian nationalist writer Anatoly Karlin “in other words, the goal is civilizational Self-Containment — a unity of “our history, culture, and spiritual space,” as Putin described it in his war speech — with a few misbehaving, wayward children pulled back home unwillingly. Modern Ukraine Russia wants to create an orthodox bloc but at the same time, Russia has an identity crisis as Russia defines her entity in opposition to the West. The discourse of civilizationism started in Russia after Putin’s authority. It is considered that Russia has unique civilizational values as universal and different from the world.

The materialization of Russianness is an emotional concept with the emergence of the Russian world in which Russians outside Russia and anyone who feels a sense of Russianness belong to Russia.

Huntington contends that Russian moves are relevant to conflict of cultures or clash of civilizations in opposition to Western civilization because Russia considers itself vulnerable to Western normative and cultural systems. 25 years on a classic civilizational conflict is one in which an imperial center seeks to seize or regain control over populations on its borders who look to other civilizational centers instead of it.

Despite being “‘a daughter'” of European civilization in part, Russia’s governmental structure reflects Mongol rather than European principles. Ukraine, on the other hand, wants to reintegrate into “maternal” European civilization. Ukraine and clash of civilizations The current dispute resembles that which existed at the end of the 15th century when Muscovy’s “Orthodox sultanism” attempted to repress European values in the western territories it wished to rule. The “historic separation of Russia into West and East” took place at that time, with the former being affected by Europe and the latter by the Mongols. Both of Muscovy’s attempts to conquer Belarus in the 16th and 17th centuries were standard borderland civilizational conflicts, but they took on an especially acerbic tone due to the local “Litvin” population’s resistance. The conquerors utilized genocide as a result to maintain their rule.

Fractured Unity – Hindutva’s Stranglehold on India

By
Asma Khan Durrani
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0

Hindutva in India, seeks to establish India as a Hindu Rashtra (nation), emphasizing Hindu culture, and traditions. Hindutva proponents advocate a Hindu identity which promotes Hindu interests, in politics, education, and law, organizations such as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which have been at the forefront of promoting Hindutva ideology. Hindutva proponents have implemented policies that align with their ultra-nationalist agenda, reshaping the socio-political landscape of India.

Tensions between India and Pakistan have been fuelled by the nationalist rhetoric and aggressive actions of Hindutva proponents. The disputed territory of Kashmir remains a major point of contention, with Hindutva policies shaping India’s approach to the region.

The rise of Hindutva has led to increased communal tensions within India. Incidents of religious violence, hate crimes, and discrimination against religious minorities have been reported. Hindutva’s influence extends beyond India’s borders, impacting the regional dynamics of the Indo-Pak region. Tensions between India and Pakistan have been fuelled by the nationalist rhetoric and aggressive actions of Hindutva proponents. The disputed territory of Kashmir remains a major point of contention, with Hindutva policies shaping India’s approach to the region. Hindutva ideology in India has sparked concerns about its growing internal and regional destructive politics in the Indo-Pak region. Hindutva, promoting Hindu nationalism, has been imposing an authoritarian agenda and fuelling communal tensions. This article explores the concept of Nazification and the emergence of Hindutva as the fourth Reich in the context of India and discusses the implications of Hindutva’s influence on regional dynamics.

To have an apt understanding of reasons behind the Hindutva mind-set and actions, it is necessary to look the causes of its origin. The Hindu’s link their kinship to the “Aryawarta” (of the Aryans) which considered itself as the master race, through a process of expansion, it evolved and cohabited to form “Bharatkhanda” or Akhand Bharat or the Hindu Rashtra, or “Hindu nation-state”. Hindutva has developed “us Vs. they” ideology which associates it back to its founder Savarkar, who demarcated the residents, i.e. on the basis of race; and on the basis of religion. His exclusion of Muslims and Christians – on the basis that they owe their spiritual allegiance elsewhere. Savarkar’s thoughts hold ominous, toxic, borderline-pornographic portents for Akhand Bharat; portrayed it as the original nation-state of the Hindu race; and how “she” was been systematically raped and pillaged by invaders and the ‘impure.’ How Muslims and Christians are such invaders; and will never be true to Akhand Bharat, which gives justification for Hindutva’s actions. Savarkar also implies that “Hindustan” is national or racial entity, rather than a religious one stating in how this “Hindu state” must continuously strive to achieve the original contours of Akhand Bharat. Strange, there’s that word. ‘Race’ and still, the adherents of Hindutva would have us believe that it is a ‘belief system’ of sorts that enshrines virtues and values. Oxford English Dictionary disagrees with them, and tells it how it is as: a hegemonic blueprint, an ideology, and a doctrine for racial profiling, exclusivism, and discrimination. This serves to fuel the exclusionary ideology of the Fourth Reich. Hindutva thus can best be defined as an irredentist concept of a Hindu nation-state; defined by socio-cultural, religious and racial borders.

The Hindu’s link their kinship to the “Aryawarta” (of the Aryans) which considered itself as the master race, through a process of expansion, it evolved and cohabited to form “Bharatkhanda” or Akhand Bharat or the Hindu Rashtra, or “Hindu nation-state”. Hindutva has developed “us Vs. they” ideology which associates it back to its founder Savarkar, who demarcated the residents, i.e. on the basis of race; and on the basis of religion.

In a nutshell, Hindutva wants none of the non-Hindus that may be present in India. And to this end, it seems that nothing is too far-fetched or outrageous. If this involves re-writing history; so be it. Even if it involves the growing creep of fascism to exclude Muslims and Christians and other religions from the country they have been part of for decades; because according to Hindutva, they were hostile invaders to begin with anyways. Specifically, within India, for the millions of Muslims and Christians living there; for anyone who is not a Hindu must not be there. And this is precisely why the analogy between the Third and Fourth Reich’s – Nazism and Hindutva is so important from an intellectual standpoint. Fascism, extremism intolerance in a society pervades through India today as it did in Nazi Germany, The Third Reich built to the zenith its exclusionary agenda. The meteoric rise to this ignominious peak was preceded by years of hate-filled speeches and incendiary-inflammatory rhetoric against the target demographic Jews, and “others”- culminating in the sort of mass extermination on an unprecedented scale. The slide into the abyss was slow, visible, and at later stages – predictable.

The core ethos of Hindutva has been built, on a distinct “Us vs. Them” premise, Hindutva tends to accentuate the differences on the basis of religion, ethno-linguistic and cultural origins. India today is deeply-divided, has clearly-demarcated classes of “haves” and “have-nots”; a re-categorisation that mirrors Hinduism’s foundational caste system of high-born, low-born, and “untouchables”. The divide between “haves”, and “have nots”; will widen, and push towards the fringes, thus, making these classes more polarised. For the adherents of Hindutva, they feel more and more empowered, and validated leading to a sense of impunity. Under the Fourth Reich, where re-appropriation of the space required breathing life into the pipedream of “Akhand Bharat”, is a basic facet of its existence.

Adherents of the Hindutva ideology seem to be replicating the path traversed by Nazism, decades later. Under the so-called ‘secular’ Hindu Congress – over 76,000 Muslims, Sikhs and Dalits were arrested under India’s infamous TADA (Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Prevention) Act, 1985)” for purported ‘terrorist acts in Indian Punjab province; thereby setting the stage for large-scale exclusion of these segments of the Indian populace. By the turn of the century, this had worsened to the point where Hindutva adherents within the Armed Forces, the intelligence services, and media in India, had managed to successfully peddle the propaganda that Muslims, Sikhs, and others, were behind all incidents of terrorism that might take place in India. This propaganda has exponentially increased when an actual Hindutva-centric regime of Narendra Modi’s BJP came into power in 2014. With the stage already set, by way of indifference to the propaganda being sold, the march forward has been ominous and relentless.

India today is deeply-divided, has clearly-demarcated classes of “haves” and “have-nots”; a re-categorisation that mirrors Hinduism’s foundational caste system of high-born, low-born, and “untouchables”. The divide between “haves”, and “have nots”; will widen, and push towards the fringes

India today, is one of the most dangerous places in the world when it comes to stifling dissent, in the name of religion. Let it be said with clarity, it is one of the worst countries in the world for minorities. And like its predecessor, the Third Reich, the Fourth Reich that has grown all-powerful in India. Establishing a certain narrative against a target demographic, and expanding that into polemical propaganda and hateful rhetoric serves the purpose of building the grounds for violence. And like the Nazi Third Reich – that serves as not just inspiration, but as a blueprint of action for it Hindutva and the Fourth Reich which must work their way towards the violence that they have envisaged, all along.

Hindutva has made such deep, inroads into everyday life in India, that already, it is something that is easily exercised. Not just politically, but societally, Hindutva has proven that it pays to be “saffron”. Modi’s meteoric return to Parliament in the past two elections effectively decimating the left-leaning, secular opposition – is a testament to this. It is thus, quite possible that this might become the “new normal” across the Indian political spectrum. We may be seeing a complete shift of political thought move right-of-centre in India to only accept something that embodies widespread support of Hindutva and “Hinduness” only. Indian internal politics as a whole, is veering towards Hindutva’s divisive-exclusionary philosophy, and embracing it firmly.

Police, law enforcement, Intelligence agencies, judicial organs, academia and the intelligentsia, state owned enterprises, the electronic and print media, and grassroots-level providers of governance; in short, the entire apparatus of the state and its functionaries see a growing affinity for ultra- nationalistic radicalised thought.

This slow-gradual process of unravelling of Hindutva’s “creep” into the daily affairs in Indian life. It is becoming more and more felt in its Armed Forces and their dealings with the multitude of problems – internal as well as external that they’re repeatedly called upon to address by their Hindutva-steered political paymasters. Police, law enforcement, Intelligence agencies, judicial organs, academia and the intelligentsia, state owned enterprises, the electronic and print media, and grassroots-level providers of governance; in short, the entire apparatus of the state and its functionaries see a growing affinity for ultra- nationalistic radicalised thought. Dissent, if any, is muted and forcibly hushed. Opposition, if any, is stifled, worn down, and inevitably crushed. The Hindutva behemoth – having found traction and political momentum through the present political dispensation in India – will strive to deny breathing space to naysayers and critics. “Traitor- shamed” into silence and if not then complicity, thus; we are likely to see opposition to Hindutva, atrophy. What happens in India, resonates and has knock-on effects in the region of its immediate vicinity. Hindutva’s stranglehold is having a serious impact on Indi

Saudi Arabia’s Aspiration to Join BRICS

By
Saba Kiran
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0

The global economic landscape has been witnessing an evolution as nations, particularly emerging economies, seek to assert their influence on international platforms. One such platform is BRICS, an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Recently, Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil exporters, has expressed interest in joining this association. This aspiration raises a pertinent question: why does Saudi Arabia want to join BRICS?

Before delving into Saudi Arabia’s motivation, it’s important to understand what BRICS represents. The bloc has emerged as a significant force in global governance, offering an alternative platform to Western-led international institutions. BRICS countries account for about 42% of the world’s population, 23% of global GDP, and over 16% of international trade. Together, these nations serve as a significant platform for cooperation on issues like trade, technology, and development policy.

Saudi Arabia’s interest in BRICS can be analyzed from several perspectives. As part of its Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is working towards diversifying its economy away from oil. Joining BRICS could facilitate this process by opening new avenues for trade and investment with rapidly developing economies. It could also aid in technology transfer and innovation, enabling Saudi Arabia to develop new industries and reduce its dependency on fossil fuels.

As a part of BRICS, Saudi Arabia could assert more significant influence on international matters, particularly in terms of global economic policy. This could help Saudi Arabia shape international norms and rules in ways that align with its national interests. As the first Middle Eastern nation to join BRICS, Saudi Arabia would further consolidate its status as a leader in the region. It could serve as a bridge between BRICS and the Middle East, promoting regional integration into the global economy.

Saudi Arabia’s addition to BRICS could unlock substantial economic benefits. For the kingdom, it would stimulate trade, bring foreign direct investment, and facilitate access to the New Development Bank’s infrastructure and sustainable development funding. Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s integration into the BRICS framework could expedite the technological and industrial modernization needed to realize its economic diversification objectives. For BRICS, Saudi Arabia’s membership would bring the world’s largest oil exporter into its fold, potentially enhancing the bloc’s global economic clout. Further, Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the BRICS could bolster the bloc’s collective bargaining power in global economic affairs.

Saudi Arabia’s potential inclusion in BRICS could have significant implications for both the kingdom and the association. For Saudi Arabia, it could advance economic diversification, enhance international stature, and facilitate access to development finance. For BRICS, Saudi Arabia’s membership could strengthen the association’s global influence, given the kingdom’s strategic location, significant oil resources, and economic potential. However, potential challenges must also be considered. Saudi Arabia’s human rights record, for instance, could be a matter of concern. Additionally, how Saudi Arabia’s economy aligns with the diverse economies already in BRICS – from democratic India and South Africa to more state-controlled economies like China and Russia – would be a key factor in its membership bid.

On the security front, Saudi Arabia’s inclusion in BRICS could have mixed implications. On the positive side, Saudi Arabia’s strategic location and regional influence could bolster the collective security posture of BRICS, particularly in the Middle East. However, potential areas of friction might also arise, given Saudi Arabia’s regional rivalries and ongoing conflicts. The question of how these conflicts might impact the security dynamics within BRICS is a crucial consideration.

Politically, Saudi Arabia’s accession to BRICS could be a game-changer. For Saudi Arabia, BRICS membership would mark a significant leap in its global political standing. It could also strengthen the kingdom’s hand in influencing the international agenda, from energy and climate change policies to issues of global governance. For BRICS, Saudi Arabia’s inclusion would broaden the bloc’s geographic representation, thus enhancing its legitimacy as a truly global platform. However, divergences in political systems and values, such as Saudi Arabia’s human rights record, could potentially pose challenges to the bloc’s cohesion.

In summary, Saudi Arabia’s aspiration to join BRICS carries substantial implications for both the kingdom and the bloc. The move could drive Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification, enhance its international political influence, and influence security dynamics in the Middle East. However, it also introduces potential challenges related to regional security issues and political divergence. As this development unfolds, the delicate navigation of these dynamics will be pivotal to the future of BRICS and its potential new member, Saudi Arabia.

African Delegation’s Peace Plan for Ukraine War to Putin

By
Dr. Fatime Mehdi
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5

On June 18, 2023, African leaders from seven countries, including Senegal, Egypt, Zambia, Uganda, Congo Republic, Comoros, and South Africa, took an unprecedented step to mediate the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The delegation, representing the Africa Peace Initiative, presented a 10-point document to Russian President Vladimir Putin, aiming to formulate an effective solution to the tumultuous conflict.

The African leaders’ visit to Russia wasn’t just about conflict resolution. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, for instance, also attended the 26th International Economic Forum (SPIEF) during his visit to forge a strategic partnership with Russia. The African leaders used this opportunity to discuss potential economic cooperation, including Algeria’s ambitions to join the BRICS+ format.

The peace plan presented to Putin entailed ten main points that emphasized a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, respecting state sovereignty under the United Nations Charter, ensuring the exchange of captives, post-war reconstruction, and de-escalating the situation on both sides. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, the delegate tasked with outlining these points, stressed the significance of a peaceful resolution not just for the two nations involved, but for the global community.

During the meeting, Putin acknowledged the balanced approach of Africa towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He emphasized that Russia had always been open to dialogue with Ukraine. Putin pointed out that Ukraine withdrew from the negotiation table despite signing a preliminary peace agreement in Istanbul.

However, Putin’s reception of the peace proposal was mixed. The Russian president interrupted the African leaders during their opening remarks to outline his objections to several points in the proposal. Among the contested points were the condition of Ukrainian children in the conflict and the source of the crisis, which Putin attributes to the West and Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also took a part in the peace process. Zelenskyy invited the African leaders to participate in the Global Peace Summit Kyiv is organizing and emphasized that any peace talks would necessitate Russia’s withdrawal from Ukrainian territory.

In a broader context, the Africa Peace Initiative demonstrates the continent’s growing role in global diplomacy. African Union Chairperson Azali Assoumani underlined the interconnected nature of the world, highlighting that regional crises potentially threaten the stability of the entire international community. Assoumani expressed Africa’s interest in the Russia-Ukraine crisis from this perspective.

Economically, this mediation effort represents a strategic maneuver for African nations. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s parallel attendance at the 26th International Economic Forum in Russia underlines the underlying economic stakes in these diplomatic overtures. The intent here is twofold – firstly, to promote the potential economic opportunities available in North African countries like Algeria to Russian investors, and secondly, to garner support for Algeria’s aspiration to join the BRICS+ format.

Politically, this initiative highlights Africa’s growing assertiveness in global diplomacy. It portrays Africa as an active agent in the resolution of international conflicts, stepping beyond the conventional donor-recipient dynamics or colonial legacy. The African Union Chairperson Azali Assoumani, during the talks, underscored this aspect by emphasizing the globalized nature of the world and the interconnectedness of regional crises. Furthermore, this initiative may influence Africa’s political relations with both Russia and Ukraine. Putin’s acknowledgement of Africa’s balanced approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Zelenskyy’s call for African leaders to join the Global Peace Summit underscore the rising political significance of Africa in international affairs.

From a security perspective, Africa’s active mediation in the Russia-Ukraine war serves as a clarion call for the continent’s growing role in global peacekeeping. The delegation’s 10-point peace plan accentuates key issues like de-escalation, diplomatic negotiations, exchange of captives, and post-war reconstruction – elements crucial for the restoration of security and stability.

Such active participation in peacekeeping efforts sends a strong signal about Africa’s commitment to international peace and security. The success of this initiative also has potential security implications for Africa itself. Many African nations are grappling with their own security challenges, from civil unrest to territorial disputes. A successful mediation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict might set a powerful precedent for resolving these issues.

The peace initiative’s immediate success is yet to be determined. Still, the act of presenting a structured peace plan symbolizes Africa’s maturing diplomatic influence on the global stage. This active mediation effort has placed Africa at the forefront of peacekeeping efforts in an era where international cooperation is essential to maintaining global stability. The African Peace Initiative’s intervention presents a beacon of hope in the midst of a global crisis and sends a strong message to the world about Africa’s commitment to peace and stability. Regardless of the outcomes, this initiative serves as a vital blueprint for Africa’s role in future international conflicts and crises.

Trade Reinvented: Pakistan and Russia’s Barter Trade Agreement

By
Asma Khan Durrani
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2

In a significant move, Pakistan has recently announced the official implementation of a barter trade mechanism with Russia. This strategic initiative aims to foster bilateral economic cooperation between the two nations. By adopting this innovative approach, Pakistan seeks to enhance trade relations and explore new avenues for collaboration with its Russian counterparts.

Pakistan has officially announced the implementation of a barter trade mechanism Russia among other states on specific goods, including petroleum and gas to strengthen the country’s foreign reserves and economy. The government order, called the Business-to-business (B2B) Barter Trade Mechanism 2023 and has listed goods that can be bartered.

The barter trade mechanism offers a unique platform for both countries to exchange goods and services without the need for traditional currency transactions. This novel arrangement allows Pakistan and Russia to leverage their respective strengths and resources, paving the way for mutually beneficial partnerships.

With the implementation of this mechanism, Pakistan envisions a diversified trade landscape that encompasses various sectors, including agriculture, energy, technology, and manufacturing. The exchange of agricultural products, such as Pakistan’s high-quality rice and Russia’s wheat and dairy products, promises to strengthen food security and meet the growing demand in both countries.

Furthermore, the barter trade mechanism opens doors for the exploration of energy collaborations. Pakistan, with its vast renewable energy potential, can offer clean and sustainable solutions to meet Russia’s energy requirements. Simultaneously, Russia can contribute its expertise and advanced technology in the energy sector, facilitating the development of renewable energy projects in Pakistan.

This progressive step also aims to foster technological advancements through knowledge transfer and research collaborations. The exchange of expertise in fields like artificial intelligence, aerospace, and information technology can pave the way for innovation and economic growth in both nations.

Deputy director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, said Pakistan could gain particularly from oil and energy imports from Russia and Iran without adding to dollar demand. He added that the barter opportunity is important considering the dollar shortages the countries face. The ‘business-to-business barter trade mechanism 2023’ was implemented. Both state-owned and private enterprises in Pakistan will have the opportunity to engage in barter trade with Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan.

The aim of the barter trade system is to stabilize the economy of Pakistan by increasing foreign reserves and expanding trade opportunities. To participate in this system, businesses must meet specific requirements, including registering with the Pakistan Single Window System, obtaining an import-export license, submitting trade applications via the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) online portal, and getting verification from the relevant Pakistani missions in the respective countries.

Pakistan will export a diverse array of products under this mechanism. The list of exportable goods includes milk, cream, eggs, cereals, meat, fish products, fresh fruits and vegetables, rice, pharmaceutical products, chemicals, perfume, cosmetics, plastic, rubber, leather, wood products and furniture items, textiles, readymade garments, paper, footwear, iron and steel, electric fans, home appliances, sports goods, motorcycles, tractors, surgical products, and sports equipment.

Pakistan will acquire essential commodities. Pakistan will import fruits, vegetables, spices, dry fruits, minerals and metals, textile machinery, oil seeds, minerals, coal and its products, raw wool, iron, and steel articles. Additionally, imports from Iran will also include petroleum crude oil, LNG and LPG. From Russia, Pakistan will import coal and its products, petroleum oil, LNG and LPG, fertilizers, minerals, and metals, articles of wood and paper, plastic and rubber items, chemical products, iron and steel, and textile industrial machinery as well as pulses and wheat.

The implementation of this barter trade mechanism is expected to have a positive impact on Pakistan’s economy. The country of approximately 240 million people is facing significant challenges related to the balance of payments crisis and soaring inflation which reached an alarming rate of nearly 38 per cent in May 2023. Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves have dwindled to slightly above $4 billion, a level that can barely sustain imports for a month, according to central bank data.

Pakistan’s local business community and the Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) have welcomed the government’s efforts to activate the mechanism. The implementation of the barter trade arrangement with certain countries will help address the existing gaps in Pakistan’s import and export potential and contribute to economic growth. However, some experts argue that the conventional barter system, which has been in practice for centuries, is losing ground in a world driven by globalization and interconnected economies with modern trade mechanisms.

The import of Russian oil by Pakistan as a good omen and barter trade has benefits to both the countries. The first shipment of Russian oil to energy-deficient Pakistan was unloaded at Pakistan. Russian oil shipments will be paid for in yuan with Pakistan’s US dollar reserves dangerously low and Russia pivoting away from the greenback. This is the first-ever Russian oil cargo to Pakistan and the beginning of a new relationship between Pakistan and Russian Federation. Islamabad imports 84 percent of its petroleum products and has historically relied on friendly Gulf states for shipments. Coal imports from Afghanistan have also likely doubled under the Taliban government. The energy sector has suffered shortages for years due to mismanagement, a lack of storage facilities and a poor economy.

Hence, the official implementation of a barter trade mechanism between Pakistan and Russia signifies a bold stride towards strengthening bilateral ties. This innovative approach holds immense potential for expanding trade horizons and unlocking new opportunities for economic cooperation. With its inherent perplexity, this reflects the significance of this strategic decision, showcasing the complexity and dynamism surrounding Pakistan’s trade relations with Russia.

 

Chinese “Cold Shoulder” Amid Blinken’s Visit

By
Usman Zulfiqar Ali
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7

The long-anticipated visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China is going to be held on Sunday 18th June. The visit was earlier postponed in February this year after the so-called “Spy Balloon” was found flying in American airspace. After the spike in tensions between US and China over a year, Secretary Blinken is the most senior in the Biden administration who is planning to visit Beijing. The confrontation stalled any opportunity of any of the senior members of the incumbent government in Washington including the President himself.

The Secretary of State’s trip to China is of great importance as the two-faced intense rivalry at many stages recently, such as the provocative trip of Taiwanese President Tsai lng-Wen and American support for Taipei.

After the confirmation of the news of the visit, the analysts were optimistic all over the world expecting a Rapprochement after the intense rivalry. The hopes faded as soon as confirmed by the State Department’s top diplomat for East Asia, Daniel Kritenbrink. “We’re not going to Beijing with the intent of having some sort of breakthrough or transformation in the way that we deal with one another”, he said.

Earlier this week, the Secretary of State held a phone call with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. The talk was meant to confirm the arrangements of the supposed visit of the US Secretary of State to China, but the two discussed differently. The US stressed opening the channels of communication “to avoid miscalculation” and “steering conflict”. While China has given the US a “Cold Shoulder”. Chinese readout stressed that Foreign Minister urged the US to “stop meddling” in the internal matters of China and respect its “core concerns” such as Taiwan. Although China is welcoming Blinken in Beijing but stressing the objectives of the trip on its terms. This is not the first time as earlier at Shangrila Dialogue, Chinese Defence Minister Li Shnagfu also refused to hold a meeting with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin perhaps in response to the American Sanctions on him. Therefore, why China is giving the US a Cold Shoulder even when the US is approaching to engage China, is the question, answer to which lies below.

Over a decade, the US always considered China a threat and a global competitor. This has not only induced competition between them but also generated a lack of mutual trust. There are various events in the US-China relations that have intensified the rivalry over some time. The US enables its containment strategy against China vis-à-vis thinking to compete with China in the international realm. This brought the two major powers into an intense rivalry and a cold war situation is emerging. And if Thucydides’ Trap is there, the world can’t afford another war-type situation after the Russo-Ukrainian adventure.

The mismanagement of the Chinese balloon drifted off in American airspace and its decision to destroy through air-to-air missile also boded ill for the Rapprochement between US and China.

Secretary of State quickly after the incident postponed the visit to China followed by the dissatisfaction proposed by China over the reaction. In addition to it, Washington’s lasting support for Taiwan, which China terms as an “interference in its Internal Matters, ” also reckoned the mistrust between US and China. It sponsored a trip of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan last August. The US also hosted Taiwanese President Tsai earlier this year where she held a meeting with the US House Speaker. Since the day Nancy visited Taiwan, China cut off talks with American military commanders. Chinese usually express severe concerns over such events adding up questions about American “sincerity” in the matter.

And last but not least, the American bid to decouple China is also posing a challenge to reducing conflict between US and China. Earlier this year, the US pushed its allied countries in chipmaking curbs against China. Following US and Netherlands, Japan also joined the club to restrict exports of advanced semiconductors-making equipment to China. Moreover, the US also sanctioned Chinese companies recently. It has approved 7 Chinese companies and 6 people from China. These entities and the people were making fentanyl-making equipment.

To sum up what has been stated so far, US and China have lost mutual trust over the years of rivalry. The trust between the states in International Relations holds a central position in dealing with critical conflicts between two parties. As Zachary Keck, former Managing Editor at ‘The Diplomat’ noted “Trust is a Rare commodity in International Politics”, US and China must reduce the differences, enhance communication and stop confronting each other to find routes toward a rapprochement.

From Theory to Practice: Economic Models for Climate Change Policies

By
Dr. Usman
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3

The issue of climate change is arguably the most pressing environmental challenge facing humanity. It has implications not only for ecosystems but also for economies worldwide. Its important to delve into the economic aspects of climate change and the role of environmental policies in managing this global issue.

Climate change is an economic issue because it affects various sectors of the economy. For example, it impacts agriculture due to shifting weather patterns and increased frequency of extreme weather events. It affects tourism, particularly in regions reliant on natural beauty or stable climate conditions. Infrastructure is also vulnerable to climate change, with rising sea levels and extreme weather posing risks to buildings, roads, and other structures.

Moreover, climate change has the potential to exacerbate social inequality. Its impacts are disproportionately felt by poorer populations, which have fewer resources to adapt and are often situated in more vulnerable geographic locations.

Studies have shown that if climate change is not addressed, it could have severe impacts on the global economy. However, by achieving net-zero emissions, the negative impact of climate change can be capped and potentially reversed.

Environmental policies are critical tools in managing the economic aspects of climate change. These policies can be implemented at various levels, including international, national, regional, and sub-national. At the international level, agreements such as the Paris Agreement set out broad goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and encourage cooperation between nations. However, the implementation of these agreements relies on national policies.

National and sub-national policies can take various forms, including regulations limiting emissions, incentives for green technologies, and carbon pricing mechanisms. These policies not only help reduce emissions but also can stimulate economic activity by promoting the development of new technologies and industries. Environmental policy analysis is an essential part of developing these policies. This involves evaluating the effectiveness of different policy instruments, considering their economic impacts, and taking into account the political economy and politics of these policies.

Different policy instruments have various economic implications. For instance, carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems put a price on emissions, creating an economic incentive for businesses to reduce their carbon footprint. These market-based approaches can be cost-effective means of reducing emissions, but they can also have distributional impacts that need to be considered. Regulations, such as emission standards for vehicles or power plants, can also be effective but may be costlier for businesses. However, they provide more certainty about emission reductions than market-based approaches.

Investments in green technologies can stimulate economic growth by creating jobs and promoting innovation. These investments can be supported through public funding or through policies that incentivize private investment.

Increasingly, climate change is seen not only as an environmental and economic concern but also as a significant threat to security. Changes in climate conditions can exacerbate geopolitical tensions, create social instability, and increase the need for humanitarian aid. Flooding, drought, famine, and disease due to climate change can displace populations, destabilize governments, and even provide a breeding ground for extremist movements. The security implications of climate change are not confined to any single region; they are global. As such, the response to these challenges needs to be coordinated at an international level. The role of intelligence communities in understanding, forecasting, and planning for the security threats associated with climate change is pivotal. They can provide key insights into the potential societal and geopolitical impacts of a changing climate and help shape policy responses.

Climate change also significantly influences international politics. It alters the dynamics of power, shapes international cooperation and conflict, and challenges the existing global order. The shift to a low-carbon economy can realign international political alliances, with nations vying for influence and leadership in the renewable energy sector. Consequently, climate change and responses to it can create new winners and losers on the global stage.

Those who lead in green technology and policy may gain significant geopolitical advantages. Nations lagging may face economic and political marginalization. International collaboration is necessary, yet complex, as the effects of climate change and efforts to mitigate them have uneven impacts across nations.

Climate change presents a considerable economic challenge, but it also offers opportunities. With sound environmental policies, it is possible to mitigate the economic risks associated with climate change and potentially create new economic opportunities. However, achieving this requires a nuanced understanding of the economics of climate change and environmental policies. This involves considering the impacts of climate change on different sectors of the economy, understanding the economic implications of different policy instruments, and navigating the political and economic realities that shape policy implementation. In a world increasingly shaped by climate change, the ability to navigate these complexities is not just an academic exercise. It is crucial for ensuring a sustainable and equitable future for all.

 

The Vitality of CPEC Under Global Changes

By
Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi
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10

Human beings have always craved community and connection. It is evident from a cursory look at history to realize that the world today, with all its technological and social development, cultural diversity, languages, and heritage is the result of millennia of intermingling of different peoples – sharing ideologies, cultures, and enriching each other. The creations that come from shared experience have built our societies and led to our most monumental inventions and deepest insights about the world around us. Geographical isolation on the other hand has always been seen as the main hindrance to economic progress and development.

Connectivity has, therefore, emerged as a defining feature of the modern economy and a leading trend of the 21st century which is reflected in the increasing demand for resources to be invested in linking communities, economies, and countries.

Connectivity is now considered a cornerstone not only for regional but also for global economic cooperation and integration and has become a key priority, particularly for the countries of Asia and the Pacific. In Asia ASEAN is an example of the benefits of connectivity while in Europe we see the EU benefitting through the application of both soft and hard aspects of connectivity. Improving the flow of people, goods, and services allows for greater efficiency in the distribution of resources. Creating better access to larger markets also increases trade and production, encouraging the growth of local economies.

Whether it was the ancient Silk Route, Grand Trunk Road, RCD rail connection, KKH, Eurasian land bridge, Trans-Siberian Rail or now BRI and CPEC connecting China to the rest of Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Europe have all enriched and developed the nations along these routes. President Xi’s vision of regional connectivity and people-centric development model through BRI should be seen in this context and the established trend of Globalization.

Connectivity has greatly increased the prospects of interstate cooperation which in turn has facilitated trade and economic growth. Enhanced global connectivity and shrinking trade and transport costs have grown in tandem with a proliferation of regional and multilateral trade agreements. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims at enhancing regional and international connectivity and represents a win-win model of international cooperation providing new opportunities for economic rejuvenation and prosperity of all countries.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its flagship project with Gwadar Port as the Jewel in the crown of CPEC.

The strategic concept of connectivity between Pakistan and China has been in the works for decades. It originated with the decision to build the Karakoram Highway linking Pakistan and China through Khunjrab Pass. The two sides moved towards translating the concept into reality with the decision in 2001 to construct a deep sea port at Gwadar. The financial package for linking KKH to Gwadar port with a network of roads and bridges, reviving the energy sector of Pakistan, establishing Special Economic Zones (SEZs), and project layout of CPEC was agreed upon in April 2015 during President Xi”s visit to Pakistan taking a big stride forward for accomplishing the vision of connectivity and development.

As we celebrate 10 years of this project, CPEC has become a distinctive symbol of enduring friendship with China and occupies a central position in the development agenda of Pakistan. This model of development fully resonates with Pakistan’s own vision and firm belief that CPEC is a “game-changer” not only for Pakistan but the entire region. Connecting Gwadar Port to China through a network of highways, railways, pipelines to transport goods, technology, oil and gas,, and fiber optic cable for the flow of knowledge, presents enormous opportunities to people from Gwadar to Kashgar and beyond.

Robert D Kaplan said that “the word Pakistan sums up the Indian Sub-continent” Pakistan is blessed with a profound blend of landscapes, ranging from the coastal areas of the Arabian Sea in the South and to the mountains of the Karakoram Range in the North. Geologically Pakistan overlaps the Eurasian, Iranian, and Indian tectonic plates. Pakistan has a long coastal line of over 1050 Km along the Indian Ocean, which stretches along the provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan. In addition to this Pakistan’s maritime sovereignty includes Exclusive Economic Zones (EES) of 240,000 sq. Km and 50,000 Sq. Km of the Continental Shelf, which become greater than the combined area of the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This vast swathe of sea area is not only a route for international maritime trade but also rich in bio-productivity and bio-diversity.

Additionally, Pakistan is situated at the nexus of the four most dynamic regions of the world – China, South and South-East Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia. In the current changing world scenario, China has assumed great importance in the region where Pakistan is a close partner of China to pursue peace and stability in the region. Through CPEC Pakistan and China should aim at the establishment of an efficient and integrated system of communications and transport, in order for both to benefit from and contribute to the regional dynamism. If Pakistan wants to be part of the global production networks and value chain, we have to fully grasp the concept of economic corridors and cross-country partnerships. The success of economic corridors in Asia is based on the concept of how domestic trade and subsidy policy can be linked to SEZs and trade agreements.

Pakistan is now actively promoting economic corridors and the experiences of China and ASEAN countries in promoting and developing regional and sub-regional corridors will benefit Pakistan/ China, countries of South and Central Asia, and beyond.

Simultaneously the world is witnessing significant political, strategic, and economic transformation and it would not be wrong to say that the world is in flux. The end of the cold war heralded the emergence of numerous fast-developing economies in Asia, South America, Africa, and the phenomenal rise of China, strengthening the expectation of the establishment of a multipolar world by the middle of the 21st Century. On the other hand, slow economic growth and rising domestic pressures are weakening the ability of developed economies to maintain their authority on the global platform.

In this scenario, crucial geopolitical variables that will influence global development over the next few decades include the ability of main emerging markets to successfully deliver on substantial economic and political reforms, and the willingness of leading powers to cooperate economically and on global governance issues. Thus, across the world, the tension between the domestic imperatives of growth and stability is setting the mood for international relations.

U.S.-China containment currently forms the most important instance of great-power Competition. As a result, it holds within itself the key to the all-important question of global stability and continued peace. The intensification of Sino-American competition has come about as a result of the belated realization by the U.S. of the systemic challenge that China’s unhampered rise by means of its peaceful development poses to the unparalleled hegemony enjoyed by the U.S. in the world system. It seems that this realization by the strong combination of long Sino-American economic interdependence, the lingering strategic compass of Cold War thinking and behavior, and the strategic sluggishness induced by the brief spell of American unipolarity. As China emerges, it is important to understand what role it will play and the security perceptions it has of both Asia and the world.

President Xi announced the holding of the Belt and Road Forum in 2023. The return of the forum signals not only a renewed drive but an extremely significant landmark as the BRI, launched in Astana and then Jakarta in 2013, will be celebrating its 10th anniversary. This will certainly set the tone for 2023 across the whole geopolitical and geo-economic spectrum. China is keenly focused on solidifying concentric spheres of geoeconomic influence across the Global South.

In West Asia, BRI projects will advance especially fast in Iran, as part of the 25-year deal signed between Beijing and Tehran and the definitive demise of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – or Iran nuclear deal – which will translate into no European investment in the Iranian economy.

In the Arab world, china is already increasing its influence both political and economic. President Xi’s December 2022 visit to Saudi Arabia is the diplomatic blueprint on how to rapidly establish a post-modern quid pro quo between two ancient, proud civilizations to facilitate a New Silk Road revival. Similarly, China is keen to work with the GCC to set up a new paradigm of all-dimensional energy cooperation within a timeline of three to five years. BRI’s future is further strengthened by a proactive Chinese economy and connectivity with both East and South Asia. For China, the stakes could not be higher, as the drive behind expanding BRI across the Global South is not to allow China to be dependent on Western markets. Evidence of this is in its combined approach towards Iran and the Arab world.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is one the most component components of BRI the lynchpin to the success of the CPEC is the Gwadar port. The China–US competition has serious Implications for Pakistan. Being a key littoral state of the IOR, it is the responsibility of Pakistan to not only safeguard its interest but also remain out of any potential conflicts. This is not easy due to the political power play in the Indian Ocean. The rivalry between China and India in which the latter is being supported by the US has made Pakistan a party to the conflict and yet another implication is the Indian efforts to isolate Pakistan on the global front. The Indian government has made strong ties with the Gulf countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia that have traditionally supported Pakistan in international forums.

To safely navigate through this period of flux both China and Pakistan need to single-mindedly focus on the completion of BRI, particularly the successful completion of CPEC which is the buckle that holds BRI together with Gwadar Port the jewel in the crown of CPEC. Gwadar has a great strategic location. This sand will become gold. However for this dream to become a reality, Gwadar port needs to become fully operational and start to handle much greater volumes of cargo than being done presently. This will only happen once all the planned SEZs are developed and industries start to operate and export products in both East and West words.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), in this case, serves not only as a lifeline for Pakistan’s traditional economy but also serves as a womb for the birth of Pakistan’s blue economy. CPEC-which is not just a single road project but a multi-sectorial direct Chines investment in Pakistan, has galvanized many sectors of Pakistan’s economy. Under these lofty Chinese investments, Pakistan’s blue economy shines like gold.

CPEC offers immense opportunities to explore and exploit the untapped blue economy of Pakistan.

Along with regional connectivity, an enhanced maritime partnership between China and Pakistan under CPEC can ensure sustained economic growth for Pakistan in particular and the region in general. Being a signatory of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG-14), Pakistan has already taken the path of Blue development. However, under the umbrella of CPEC Pakistan can not only learn from China’s maritime advancement but can also transform its relationship with China on the basis of a ‘Blue Partnership’. This partnership has already started with the development of the Gwadar Port, which is considered a harbinger of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Owing to Pakistan’s geography and vast maritime sovereignty, looking towards the seas for sustained economic growth remains the only viable option for Pakistan to support its falling economy.

China also makes strong links to the UN SDGs and uses the 2030 Agenda to frame its development efforts. China is increasing its emphasis on governance, climate change, health, humanitarian assistance, agriculture, food security, infrastructure, as well as education and training. China is now exploring and focusing on sectors and expanding investments in areas strongly linked to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The recently announced Global Development Initiative of China squarely focuses on socio-economic development and mitigating the effects of climate change menacing venerable countries like Pakistan.

Pakistan’s unique geostrategic position presents both opportunities and challenges. In the development of marine trade and ports, geographic location, investment and timely implementation of policies are crucial factors for the success of the blue economy in Pakistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) roads and rail networks have the potential to increase economic activity for Pakistan and its neighboring countries, and the ports along the Arabian Sea will provide access to markets across the major regions of the world.

Trade operations in Pakistan’s waters and specifically Gwadar port will result in an increase in workload for the shipping and shipbuilding industries. Growing in each of these areas will help Pakistan’s economy and open the way to financial independence.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims at enhancing regional and international connectivity and represents a win-win model of international cooperation providing new opportunities for economic rejuvenation and prosperity of all countries. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its flagship project with Gwadar Port as the Jewel in the crown of CPEC. Pakistan is situated at the nexus of the four most dynamic regions of the world – China, South and South-East Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia. In the current changing world scenario, China has assumed great importance in the region where Pakistan is a close partner of China to pursue peace and stability in the region.

Despite the strong opposition of the West to BRI, an increasing number of countries around the world, including European states are joining the BRI as they realize that this trend of comprehensive connectivity in the 21st century is irreversible. Although the West criticizes BRI and targets China’s peaceful intentions, it realizes that connectivity is the way forward to global peace and development and the US has therefore announced its own connectivity initiative and has allocated US dollars six billion for the project. Therefore it is my considered view that BRI and its flagship project CPEC will not only be completed but will be central to ensuring the peace and development of not only the region but beyond.

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