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Navigating the Obstacles to Technological Revolution: Challenges to Pakistan’s National Artificial Intelligence Policy (NAIP)

By
Janeeta Fazal
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Despite being at a nascent stage of development, AI is regarded as one of the most thriving industries of the 21st century. Throughout the world, states are exploring AI applications in societal spheres, military advancements, and economic innovation. The Global Artificial Intelligence Market Report estimated $66.8 billion of funding in the AI sector for the year 2022. Given the growing significance of the AI industry, the leading states of the world, America and China, have developed a technological war over the domination of the AI sector. These states are expected to get the most out of AI advances particularly in the economic and military domain.

The exaggerations at the international level due to continuous innovations in the AI sector also urged Pakistan to develop its first National Centre for Artificial Intelligence in 2018. The Ministry of Information and Communication Technologies developed the first draft of the National Artificial Intelligence Policy (NAIP 2023).

The draft aims to undertake efficient and sustained developments in the AI sector at the national level. The drivers discussed in the draft of NAIP aim at building AI awareness and readiness by creating a progressive environment. This will enable a thriving AI market through the transformation & evolution of the contemporary technological ecosystem.

Likewise, the draft also included multiple targets such as upskilling of human capital through higher education scholarships by establishing the National AI Fund. Along with imparting basic AI skills at the undergraduate level, the policy draft also aims to formulate Data Science and AI under STEM education. The other objectives entail developing the Center of Excellence in AI, and utilization of AI models through automation for data controlling and processing for academic and commercial purposes. Internationally partnerships with bilateral and multilateral AI programs will be initiated to adopt the best practices in the international market.

However, the government needs to cater to the challenges in developing targets under the policy draft because Pakistan is a resource-starved nation that is currently hit hard by economic instability. Moreover, the ranking of states on the global AI index reflects that economically stable countries spend more on advancements and developing states like Pakistan need cooperation with technologically sophisticated states. Moreover, the funds allocated for the promotion of AI was 723 billion under the 2022 PSDP.

In addition, most of the objectives are aimed to be completed by 2027 disregarding the fact that policy formulation on AI is still in its initial stage. There is a need to inculcate long-term objectives in NAIP keeping in view the national resources and strength. The better policy would be dividing them into phases to make their implementation more effective.  Besides, the ecosystem reflects complementarity with the targets mentioned in the policy draft.

The budget for FY 2023-2024 allocated 190m to science and tech innovation particularly ICT and AI-based agricultural developments and 60m for establishing National Spatial Data infrastructure for Pakistan to increase AI developments.

No budget was allocated for upskilling people in the human security domain, which can prove to be a viable factor for enhancing soft power in the AI industry. Moreover, the policy draft generally talks about the ethical use of AI to promote socio-economic development. It has been unable to address how AI technologies and software can be used in an unethical dimension. Given that innovation in the field is faster than the regulations that are formed after critical evaluation of the pros and cons of the AI technologies and limits of intelligentization that are currently discussed by the world. The policy draft needs to create constructive regulations to address the unethical utilization of AI before taking the fast-paced evolution. In this regard, Pakistan conducted the first International Conference on Islamic Ethics and AI in 2021 to encourage the ethical use of AI based on educational, moral, and ethical subsystems. But the discussions on the societal impacts of AI in NAIP were taken in a  generalized manner regardless of two years to integrate the ethical and moral codes into practical steps. Furthermore, the inclusion of AI in STEM education is an equally difficult aspect given the high costs for public institutions to purchase and train AI machines. There is a need to carve out affordable versions of AI technology along with reserving a special fund to inculcate AI in STEM education.

In essence, the challenges of highly skilled professionals, competitive research institutions to produce quality data, and insufficient financial aid for AI startups necessitate consideration. Given the initial condition of digital infrastructure coupled with the need to develop an AI ethics committee to evaluate the ethical implications of AI innovations. Correspondingly, the government needs to set aside additional funds for fostering AI startups. Pakistan can also learn from international partners like China, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. The good news is that it’s the first draft and changes can be inculcated way before the creation of the National AI Policy for implementation purposes.

China’s Middle East Mediation: A Game-Changer for Regional Dynamics and US Influence

By
Mahnoor Rashid and Muhammad Ali Baig
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Introduction

After seven years of stalled diplomatic ties and exhibition of severe hostility towards each other, Iran and Saudi Arabia have sat down for rapprochement. Their mutual rivalry had materialized in the form of proxy wars in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, heightening instability and insecurity in the region over the years. The recent agreement is a depiction of an underlying realization on both sides of the table that a long-term confrontation is detrimental not only to the two states but also to the region. This is not the first time that efforts were made by countries to bring them to a table; Oman and Iraq had been trying to do that for the past few years.

China was able to capitalize upon the trust it enjoyed in both Iran and Saudi Arabia and displayed a central role in reconciling the bitter rivals.

China is already the largest trading partner of Saudi Arabia, (bilateral trade worth 87.3 billion USD in 2021) and Iran, (bilateral trade worth 16 billion USD in 2022), and with this agreement in place, China’s position as a responsible partner in the region has been further consolidated. The deal essentially entails the recommencement of diplomatic set-up in the following two months. Most importantly, the two states have agreed to the policy of respecting each other’s sovereignty and not interfering in the internal matters of states. It also involves the revival of accords on trade and investment between the two countries.

China’s Role in the Middle East

China has been involved in the Middle East for decades now, however, its actions were limited to the economic realm. The role played by China in brokering a critical agreement between two bitter adversaries depicts the expansion of China’s designs in the region that have gone beyond just economic relations and into the realm of politics and regional security. Xi Jinping’s endeavors in the Middle East are a depiction of his shift from Deng’s “Hide your strength, bide your time, never take the lead” posture to a more assertive and active global role. Analysts have deemed this agreement as China’s aim to replace the U.S. in the region, however, this case study suits more under the accounts of strategic hedging. The particulars of China’s mediation attempts demonstrate that Beijing is not yet willing to directly challenge the U.S. or put its interests in jeopardy, even though bilateral ties between the two countries are at an all-time low. This agreement is congruous with China’s Five Point Initiative it gave in 2021, which presses upon the stability of the region. This initiative can be seen as a manifestation of China’s “strategic partnership diplomacy,” seeking to establish interest-based relationships, as opposed to the US’s Cold War mindset of alliance-making. (The Four Point Proposal given in 2022 by China is a case in point).

This flagship agreement achieved between Iran and Saudi Arabia through the mediating role of China provides ground for the potential Global Security Initiative (GSI) to carry and consolidate its role as a responsible stakeholder in global conflicts as well.

Moreover, considering its growing energy demand, Middle Eastern oil holds immense importance to China to meet its developmental needs. The reconciliatory role played by China can be seen under the effects of a looming threat of disruption in the supply of petroleum due to either political factors unfolding in the oil-enriched Middle Eastern countries or due to political actions taken by geopolitical rivals such as the U.S. The threat to Chinese interests was felt, when in 2019 Houthi group in Yemen, allegedly backed by Iran, attacked an Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia. Such a threat to the supply of energy has the potential to inflict heavy costs on China, as it is the world’s largest oil importer and consumer. The resumption of the diplomatic ties between Riyadh and Tehran is therefore cognizant of China’s economic interests.

Potential Diverging Factors

Despite the clout of diplomatic success over this agreement, certain issues can turn the relations on their head. The Iran nuclear issue can provide a major setback to the newly resumed relations, if not addressed in a way that satisfies not only Saudi Arabia and Iran, but also other key players such as Israel and the U.S. For Riyadh, Iran’s nuclear program is a threat to its security, and for Israel, it claims, it is a threat to its entire existence. On the other hand, Iran’s foreign policy is majorly constitutive of a posture maintained against Israel and the U.S., which makes its nuclear program inherently crucial for its security and for upholding its ideology. At one point or another, the party states will have to indulge in a talk over the nuclear issue, which has the potential to stall the relations between the two states if not managed cautiously.

Similarly, the recent talks over the prospects of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel have spurred a wave of dissent in Iran. The agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia came at a time when the USA was trying to broker a formal diplomatic recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia. Although the policy circles in Israel have been shaken by the news of this rapprochement, any prospects of Saudis following the lead of UAE and Bahrain in recognizing Israel could render its relations with Iran dormant once again.

In the same context, the policy of “non-interference in matters of state” essentially requires both Riyadh and Tehran to pull back their support for proxies in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. The show of power by both regional powers has to be ceased mutually to ensure that the agreement is not dead in the waters. However, this seems difficult considering the interests of their security circles, the extent of their involvement in these conflicts, and the structural gravities confronted by the two states.

One of the most pertaining issues is that the confrontation between Riyadh and Tehran stems from ideological differences that have given rise to sectarian conflicts in the entire region. The two states cut off their ties when Iran burned the Saudi embassy in Tehran in reaction to the persecution of a renowned Shi’ite cleric Shiekh Nimr al Nimr by the Saudi government. This sectarian strife is entrenched in their strategic thinking and has given rise to high levels of mistrust. Even the slightest miscalculation can be potentially misperceived by the opposing party, making the agreement highly vulnerable to external manipulation and rendering its effectiveness in resolving protracted conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen to a minimum.

What does this mean for the US?

US’s pivot to Asia has had a significant impact on its role in the Middle East as a security provider.

Due to the weakening of the security structure, Beijing has been provided with an opportunity to increase its presence in the Middle East which has repeatedly protested U.S. strategic withdrawal and failed interventions in Libya, Iraq, and Syria. Although the US is the greater military power, China can be seen as the more eminent and powerful diplomatic power in the region. This agreement has been seen with skepticism in the policy circles of Washington, especially concerning the aims of Beijing in the region. At a time when Western powers are using sanctions against Iran, China stepping up to play a central role in the region’s politics may provide Tehran with a breakaway from its isolation.

China’s actions can not be seen as incongruent with U.S. interests, even though they challenge the U.S. approach to alliance-building and dilute its influence in the region.

Conclusion

China has an important role to play in the Middle Eastern region in terms of not only economy but also politics and diplomacy. Its reconciliatory role between the regional rivals, Saudia Arabia and Iran, is being regarded as a “game-changer” by various analysts. While it is a major diplomatic victory, it also presents China with multiple challenges regarding the long-term sustenance of the agreement. A slight shift in China’s foreign policy posture exhibiting an assertive and proactive role is evident however the extent of this shift, in terms of deeper political engagement, and maybe military as well, in the Middle East is yet to be seen. The agreement holds a wide prospect of cooperation and growth for the region and will predominantly be determined by the actions and intentions of Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Explaining Israel-Palestine Conflict

By
Moazam Khan
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Israel unleashed a major raid on July 3 on Jenin refugee camp, a Palestinian stronghold in Israeli-occupied West Bank, killing 12 Palestinians in clashes with gunmen. Since March 2022, Jenin and outlying areas in the north of Israeli-occupied West Bank have drawn intensified raids ordered by Israel’s nationalist-religious government after a spate of Palestinian street attacks.

In January 2023, Israeli forces killed seven gunmen and two civilians in a raid in Jenin. Last month, Palestinians and Israeli troops waged an hours-long gun battle in which six Palestinians were killed and over 90 wounded. Seven Israeli personnel were wounded by a landmine that crippled their armoured vehicle.

Palestinian gunmen shot dead four Israelis near a Jewish settlement in retaliation, prompting settlers to rampage through Palestinians towns, torching buildings and cars. This slide into some of the worst violence since the Palestinians’ 2000-05 Intifada (uprising) comes amid a prolonged absence of peace talks envisaging Palestinian statehood, an increasingly weak Palestinian political leadership and a steady expansion of Jewish settlements on occupied land under Israel’s most hardline nationalist government ever.

Jenin is a small city in the hilly, far north of the West Bank, near the border with Israel, and contains a teeming, concrete and cinder-block refugee camp by the same name housing some 14,000 people. They are descendants of Palestinians dispossessed when Israel was created in 1948, and most are impoverished and unemployed.

Jenin was the arena of some of the worst bloodshed during the second Intifada, which began after the collapse of US-backed peace talks in 2000 and escalated into an armed conflict between Israel and militant groups. Israeli armored forces carried out a devastating raid on its camp in April 2002 as part of a wider clampdown on areas where Palestinians had exercised limited self-rule under 1990s interim peace deals.

In an escalation of the violence, Israel carried out an airstrike near a mosque in the city. The joint aerial and ground incursion into the camp is the first since the 2002 battle of Jenin during the second intifada, when more than 50 Palestinians and 23 Israeli soldiers were killed in over a week of fighting, including 13 Israeli soldiers in a single incident. Recent events bring the death toll of Palestinians killed this year in the West Bank to 133, part of more than a year-long rise in violence that has resulted in some of the worst bloodshed in that area in nearly two decades.

History has proven that Israeli attacks on Palestinian holy places are guaranteed to provoke a Palestinian response. For Netanyahu and his extreme far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, the price of Palestinian retaliation was worth the political gains from uniting Israelis of all political backgrounds behind them.

Ben-Gvir, in particular, knew that an attack on Al-Aqsa would reassure his far-right religious constituency about his commitment to imposing full Israeli Jewish sovereignty over Palestinian Muslim and Christian holy places in the occupied city of Jerusalem. What Netanyahu and his allies may have not anticipated, however, is the intensity of the Palestinian response. Hundreds of rockets were fired towards the north and south of Israel. These came not only from the besieged Gaza Strip, but, even more strategically important, also from South Lebanon.

However, even a major war could backfire. During Israel’s attack against Gaza in 2014, the occupation state struggled to sustain a single military front as the war lasted 51 days, leading to an Israeli arms and ammunition crisis. Were it not for the decision of the Barack Obama administration to ship supplies of munitions to Israel to refill its depleted arsenal, Israel could have found itself in unprecedented difficulty. The US, though, is no longer able to play the role of emergency weapons supplier, at least for now, due to its own ammunition shortage resulting from the Ukraine war. Israel was thus careful to limit its response to the Palestinian and Lebanese rockets. This episode shall prove decisive, as it will empower Israel’s regional enemies and, instead of boosting Netanyahu’s credibility within his own right-wing camp, it has the potential to undermine it.

Israel’s targeting of the Arab and Muslim identity of Palestine is now being accelerated under Netanyahu’s leadership, but this strategy is a double-edged sword as we have seen in recent days. In the video that went viral of Israeli soldiers beating up Muslim worshippers in Al-Aqsa, the distressing pleas of a Palestinian woman groaning in pain were heard as she cried “Oh Allah, Oh Allah” repeatedly. Palestinian mainstream and social media have published comments that the response by Palestinian resistance groups was specifically in answer to the pleas of the unidentified woman. This is the power of spirituality; it has the kind of logic that Netanyahu and his allies cannot possibly understand.

The Growing Threat of Bioterrorism

By
Kinza Malik
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The threat of bioterrorism, an awful phrase that fills people with dread, is significant and growing in our contemporary society. Concerns about the vulnerability of civilizations have been sparked by the possibility for nefarious people or organizations to use biological organisms as weapons of mass devastation.

The idea of bioterrorism is not new, it has recently attracted attention as a result of the quick development of biotechnology, the accessibility of harmful microorganisms, and the internet’s role in information exchange.

The potential of these sneaky weapons getting into the wrong hands has significantly risen as global connectivity and the democratization of scientific knowledge grow. This changing environment requires our attention and calls for decisive steps to address this escalating threat. The word “beast” stands for the utterly catastrophic potential that bioterrorism possesses. Unlike conventional weapons, biological agents may multiply, spread, and evolve, which makes them very difficult to contain and remove. Pathogens, poisons, or genetically engineered organisms that are intentionally released have the potential to cause widespread disease, fatalities, and societal unrest.

A successful bioterrorist strike would have devastating and far-reaching effects. Devastating results include widespread casualties, overburdened healthcare systems, economic instability, and communal fear. The psychological impact on affected populations can be profound, eroding trust and fostering a climate of fear. Additionally, the ripple effects can extend beyond borders, posing a threat to national security and disrupting global stability. Acknowledging the gravity of these potential consequences is essential in formulating effective strategies to prevent, detect, and respond to bioterrorism incidents. Bioterrorism poses significant threats to both the economy and public health security.

The intentional release of biological agents can have severe consequences on various aspects of society, including economic stability and public health.

The economy may suffer grave interruptions as a result of bioterrorist strikes. When an assault occurs, consumer confidence and expenditure may suffer in the early aftermath. A lack of economic activity is caused by the fear and uncertainty that dominate society. People may stay away from travel and public areas, which might have a substantial negative impact on sectors including tourism, hospitality, and transportation. The long-term impacts of an assault can impede economic recovery and growth, therefore the effects on the economy can last beyond the immediate aftermath.  Bioterrorism also affects trade and commerce. The agricultural industry may be especially susceptible since an attack on cattle or crops might have catastrophic repercussions on the food supply, resulting in a shortage of food and an increase in price. The economic repercussions of bioterrorism influence international markets and commercial relations in addition to the targeted country.

A serious risk to the security of public health is bioterrorism. The discharge of biological agents has the potential to cause widespread disease, fatalities, and overstretched healthcare infrastructure. Large-scale epidemics can be brought on by pathogens that have been deliberately propagated over populous regions. Healthcare professionals could experience overwork, which might undermine the standard of treatment provided to patients as well as victims of bioterrorism. Attacks by bioterrorists might target certain weak spots in the public health system. Public health security also includes consideration of the psychological effects of bioterrorism. Such assaults can cause widespread panic and societal unrest due to the dread they induce. Public areas, educational institutions, and places of employment may be avoided, which would lead to social isolation and additional negative economic effects.

Bioterrorism episodes can lead people and communities to experience psychological trauma that lasts a lifetime, placing a burden on support networks and mental health services.

National security is faced with distinct problems from bioterrorism. It takes a lot of knowledge, preparation, and intent to unleash biological agents on purpose. The procurement, handling, and transportation of toxic or hazardous microorganisms may point to a security breach or a terrorist network. To successfully counter threats from bioterrorism, national security agencies, intelligence communities, and public health organizations must work together. The rising threat of bioterrorism necessitates a multifaceted strategy to combat it. To identify and thwart prospective attacks, improved international collaboration, intelligence sharing, and early warning systems are essential. The risk of unintentional or purposeful releases must be reduced by enhancing biosecurity measures, which include safeguarding laboratories and treating hazardous diseases responsibly.

To ensure quick reaction and efficient treatment in the case of an attack, developing reliable surveillance systems, enhancing diagnostic capabilities, and investing in research and development of medical countermeasures are essential.

The economy and the security of the public’s health are both seriously threatened by bioterrorism. Economic difficulties, trade restrictions, and a drop in consumer trust may result from the deliberate release of biological agents. Additionally, it poses a serious risk to public health, taxing healthcare systems, and resulting in widespread disease and death. As we confront the evolving threat of bioterrorism, it is imperative that we recognize its potential to unleash the beast within us. We may strengthen our defenses and lessen the possibility of bioterrorist activities by comprehending the complicated dynamics, remaining watchful, and putting comprehensive policies into place. Governments, organizations, and people must cooperate to combat the rising threat of bioterrorism in order to save human lives and the foundation of society. Only through proactive measures and a collective commitment to combating this menace can we hope to mitigate its destructive potential and secure a safer future for all.

Historical Perspective of Ukraine War: A Continuing Struggle for Stability

By
Amna Nazakat
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The war in Ukraine, which began in 2014, continues to pose significant challenges to the country and its neighboring regions. The conflict, rooted in political tensions, territorial disputes, and ethnic divisions, has resulted in devastating consequences for Ukraine and has drawn international attention and concern.

The conflict in Ukraine traces its origins to the Euromaidan protests in 2013, which led to the ousting of the country’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych. The move towards closer ties with the European Union sparked discontent in parts of Ukraine, particularly in Crimea and the eastern regions, which have historical and cultural ties to Russia.

In response to the political upheaval, Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, a move widely condemned by the international community. The separatist movement in eastern Ukraine, primarily in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, gained momentum, with pro-Russian rebels seeking independence from the Ukrainian government.

The conflict escalated as the Ukrainian government launched military operations to regain control of the separatist-held areas. This led to a protracted and brutal conflict, with numerous ceasefire violations, heavy artillery shelling, and casualties on both sides. The fighting resulted in a significant loss of life, displacement of people, and severe humanitarian consequences.

The war in Ukraine has not been confined to its borders alone. The conflict has drawn the attention of the international community, leading to diplomatic efforts and sanctions against Russia for its involvement. The US, EU, and other countries have provided economic and military aid to Ukraine to support its territorial integrity.

Several attempts at finding a peaceful resolution have been made, including the Minsk Protocol and Minsk II agreements, brokered by France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. However, the ceasefire agreements have been fragile, with frequent violations and limited progress towards a lasting settlement.

The war has had a devastating impact on the people of Ukraine. Thousands of lives have been lost, and millions have been forced to flee their homes, seeking safety and shelter elsewhere. The conflict has also strained Ukraine’s economy, with infrastructure damage, disrupted trade, and a significant economic downturn.

Furthermore, the war has had wider geopolitical implications, affecting regional stability and relations between Russia and the West. The conflict has tested international norms and raised concerns about the balance of power and territorial integrity in Europe.

The war in Ukraine continues to be a grave humanitarian and geopolitical crisis. The conflict’s causes are complex, involving political, historical, and ethnic factors, with significant consequences for Ukraine and the wider global community. While diplomatic efforts persist, finding a lasting solution remains a daunting task. The international community must continue to support Ukraine’s sovereignty, promote dialogue, and work towards a peaceful resolution to end the suffering of the Ukrainian people and restore stability to the region.

International efforts to achieve peace in the Ukraine-Russia conflict have been ongoing since the conflict began in 2014. The conflict has drawn significant attention from the international community due to its implications for regional stability and the violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Various diplomatic initiatives and negotiations have been undertaken in an attempt to find a peaceful resolution.

The Minsk Protocol, signed in September 2014, and the subsequent Minsk II Agreement, signed in February 2015, were significant international efforts to establish a ceasefire and a roadmap for peace in eastern Ukraine. The agreements were brokered by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France, known as the Normandy Four. However, despite the agreements, ceasefires have been repeatedly violated, and the conflict has continued.

The Normandy Format talks involve high-level negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France. These talks aim to address the implementation of the Minsk agreements and find a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The meetings have resulted in temporary ceasefires and some progress in areas such as prisoner exchanges but have not led to a lasting solution.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has played a vital role in monitoring and reporting on the situation in Ukraine. The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine provides daily reports on the security situation, monitors the ceasefire, and facilitates dialogue between the conflicting parties.

The international community, led by EU and US, has imposed economic sanctions on Russia as a response to its actions in Ukraine. These sanctions aim to exert diplomatic pressure and encourage Russia to comply with international norms and support a peaceful resolution. However, the effectiveness of sanctions in achieving a resolution to the conflict remains a topic of debate. Likewise, many countries, including the United States, European Union member states, and other international partners, have provided economic and military assistance to Ukraine. This support aims to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and promote stability in the region.

Despite these international efforts, achieving a lasting peace in the Ukraine-Russia conflict remains elusive. The conflict’s complexity, continued ceasefire violations, and geopolitical dynamics have hindered progress. The international community must continue to support diplomatic initiatives, encourage dialogue between the parties involved, and exert pressure to de-escalate tensions and find a peaceful resolution that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Shifting Sands in South Asia: Modi’s Visit to USA

By
Umme Farwa
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In the era of emerging multilateralism, the South Asian states of India and Pakistan are left with fewer foreign policy choices. The interplay of power contestation and cooperative efforts between these two nuclear countries shapes the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. In recent years, the power dynamics in South Asia have undergone significant and rapid changes, transforming the region into a battleground for power contestation between China and the United States. Washington is expanding its power tentacles in Asia-Pacific by making alliances and signing multilateral agreements. America’s perception of China as a threat to its hegemony is a classical example of the Thucydides trap.

On one hand, India is becoming the lynchpin of Biden’s Indo-pacific strategy as he said that a relationship with India would define the next century, on the other hand, Pakistan is forging closer ties with China and Russia, signaling shifting sands in South Asia.

Historically, Pakistan has relied on Washington for defense supplies while India has traditionally looked to Russia for such support. However, in recent times there has been seen a reversal in this trend as India is shifting its defense dependency from Russia to America because of the Ukraine war which has made it difficult for Moscow to provide defense weapons to Delhi. Washington is also aiding India to modernize its defense capabilities by providing the latest technology and sophisticated weapons.  Narendra Modi, who has been censured by the West as Butcher of Gujrat, has been invited by the Biden administration for a consecutive 5 days official visit to the US. Modi is the third president who is invited by the White House administration after French and South Korean counterparts. Top on Modi’s agenda is to sign defense deals with the USA such as buying drone technology and meeting with Big Tech CEOs such as Tesla, Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc.

Besides discussing agendas, both heads of state were briefed about strategic convergences in Asia. The White House joint statement has rung alarm bells in Pakistan which states “call for concerted action against all UN-listed terrorist groups including Al-Qa’ida, ISIS/Daesh, Lashkar e-Tayyiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), and Hizb-ul-Mujhahideen. They strongly condemned cross-border terrorism, the use of terrorist proxies and called on Pakistan to take immediate action to ensure that no territory under its control is used for launching terrorist attacks. This direct statement against Pakistan is further off Modi’s agenda against Pakistan by presenting it as a terror-propagating state to deflect attention from his brutal repression in Kashmir. The statement clearly reveals the growing US tilt towards India in South Asia. This also implies that Washington has accepted Delhi’s unsubstantial narrative regarding cross-border terrorism against Pakistan. It might also be an attempt to pressurize Pakistan for Washington’s broader strategy in the region, a price of cooperation with China that Pakistan would have to pay in the future.

The other aspect of this visit which is alarming for Pakistan is increasing defense and technological cooperation between India and USA, as both have agreed to jointly manufacture fighter jet engines. Moreover, the USA has also signed a deal with India to purchase 30 MQ-9B ‘Reaper’ and 31 high-altitude long-endurance drones, which the USA has traded off with a few NATO allies. These drones will enhance the Indian armed forces’ intelligence surveillance capabilities.

India has expressed its intention to collaborate with NASA on a joint mission to the International Space Station scheduled for 2024 for the exploration of space.

This deliberated military and technological advancement of India supported by the US has whipped the stability instability paradox in South Asia and has threatened the strategic stability of the region. India’s incentive to become the hegemon of South Asia is a threat to the peace of this region. Military modernization at the border has also made Pakistan vulnerable to myriad traditional and non-traditional security threats. Hence, Pakistan needs to diversify its interests from strategic ties to technological advancements with Russia and China. Pakistan needs to shift from traditional state security dynamics to technological advancements because the coming age is the age of Artificial Intelligence.

Technologically advanced India would have the capability to utilize propaganda and disinformation more effectively and efficiently against Pakistan. In response, Pakistan should consider establishing technological partnerships with Russia and China to enhance its own capabilities and counter any potential challenges.

The deepening global strategic partnership between India and America is reshaping the power dynamics in South Asia which would have long-term implications for the region, particularly for Pakistan.

This shift in dynamics brings about several immediate consequences, including an intensified rivalry between China and the United States, the emergence of bloc politics, the formation and dissolution of alliances, and an escalation in the arms race across the Asia-Pacific. Pakistan cannot face these challenges without putting its own house in order. Therefore, political, and economic stability is the linchpin to finding stable and mature means to navigate its foreign policy in these difficult times.

US-China Rivalry & Southeast Asia’s Balancing Act

By
Saher Liaqat
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Southeast Asia has always been an area of significant interest for great powers due to its advantageous position, rich resources, and diverse cultures. This region, characterized by its ever-evolving geopolitical landscape, serves as a crucial arena for great power competition.

Over the past decades, the emergence of China and renewed attention from the United States have introduced a new dynamic to the competition for dominance in Southeast Asia.

The United States of America is the most dominant extra-regional actor in Southeast Asia. The geostrategic centrality of the Southeast-Asian region has aroused the interests of US foreign policymakers for decades and has always been an epicenter of great-power competition. Geopolitically, this region holds great significance in nurturing US interests due to the important sea lanes that pass through it, the mineral resources which it hosts, and its greater proximity to China, USSR, and India which are the important actors neighboring this region. Moreover, the resilience of illiberal regimes in the region is yet another determinant that attracted American attention. During the Cold War, the US implemented a containment strategy in response to developments in Southeast Asia, aiming to protect its security interests. It engaged in the Indochina War for over four decades, driven by the belief that the spread of communism in one Southeast Asian nation would lead to a domino effect. This perception of the Domino theory made Indochina a significant concern for the US.

Later, under the Trump administration, the US pursued the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy, to directly confront the growing influence of China, forewarning other nations about China’s “predatory economics” and its propagation of governance principles linked to the increasing prevalence of authoritarianism in the region. ASEAN has articulated its perspective on the Indo-Pacific through the “Outlook on the Indo-Pacific,” emphasizing the importance of inclusivity and the central role of ASEAN. The US to pursue its security interests in Southeast Asia as preeminent power needs continued strategic access in this region. This is realized by US Seventh-fleet based in Japan, and with “places not bases” in Southeast Asia including strategic partnership with Singapore and traditional alliances with Thailand and the Philippines.

Located at the intersection of great power competition, Southeast Asia occupies a strategic position where the world’s busiest sea routes converge. The region serves as a gateway between the Indian and Pacific Oceans through the East-West Sea route, while also connecting Northeast Asia to New Zealand and Australia through the North-South route. These two shipping routes, are deemed as the economic lifelines regulating much of the intra-regional trade and have great relevance for international commerce and security.

The strategic sea lanes in Southeast Asia hold significant military value for the United States, serving as vital conduits for the transportation of US forces between the Indian Ocean, the Western Pacific, and the Persian Gulf.

Moreover, the economic significance of Southeast Asia is greatly associated with the profusion of raw materials in the region i.e., oil, rubber, tin, petroleum, manganese, cobalt, copper, rice, gold, etc. ASEAN, inhabiting over 500 million people, is the largest market for American goods and services, and an important US investment destination with its share of global FDI rising from 11.9% in 2019 to 13.7% in 2020. The US total goods and services trade with ASEAN was valued at $441.7 billion in 2021. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into ASEAN reached approximately US$137 billion, marking a decrease from the previous peak of US$182 billion.

The incumbent rise of China as a major power offers a significant trajectory bringing in a progressively self-assured, and influential actor into the strategic mix. Since 2013, China has adopted a proactive approach to “neighborhood diplomacy,” aiming to foster a “community with a shared future” in its neighboring regions. Economic statecraft, which involves using economic tools to achieve foreign policy objectives, plays a central role in its evolving foreign policy doctrine.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) serves as a key component of China’s statecraft, focusing on strengthening infrastructure, trade, and investment links between China and countries in Southeast Asia and beyond. Notably, China has implemented various projects in the region, including hydropower dams, oil and gas pipelines, and extensive railway plans. Additionally, China has adopted a proactive approach to safeguard its territorial assertions in the South China Sea, relying on the contentious “nine-dash line” that encompasses a considerable area of the disputed waters, overlapping with the claims of various Southeast Asian nations. These conflicting territorial claims have been a primary cause of strain and discord within the region. The geographical proximity of China, along with its aspirations to establish a sphere of influence, combined with the absence of a major Southeast Asian power capable and willing to strongly resist Beijing’s dominance, leaves the region particularly susceptible to external pressures.

ASEAN appreciates China’s economic reforms and recognizes its potential for global economic competitiveness. ASEAN seeks constructive engagement with China, aiming to establish economic ties through trade and investment.

These economic linkages are crucial for building a lasting ASEAN-China relationship. Trade between ASEAN and China has experienced substantial growth, with the volume more than doubling since 2010, reaching USD 507.9 billion in 2019, which accounted for 18% of ASEAN’s total trade. This significant increase can be attributed to the 2005 ASEAN-China Trade in Goods Agreement, which led to a nearly fourfold expansion in bilateral trade. China’s economic influence has grown, evident by its invitation to the ASEAN Informal Summit and its support for the Thai currency. This demonstrates China’s significant economic clout and the role it can play in the region. Furthermore, Singapore’s largest investments are in China, underscoring the deepening economic relations between China and ASEAN.

In the complex landscape of US-China rivalry, Southeast Asian countries are adopting diverse strategies to safeguard their interests both individually and as a region.

The impact of great power rivalry in Southeast Asia has far-reaching consequences for regional stability and security.

On the positive side, this rivalry brings about economic opportunities and increased investments for the countries in Southeast Asia. However, it also creates potential tensions and conflicts, particularly in areas like maritime security, where overlapping interests and claims can arise. To navigate this complex geopolitical situation, Southeast Asian states have adopted a policy of strategic autonomy. They strive to maintain friendly relations with all major powers while simultaneously strengthening regional security cooperation. This approach aims to strike a balance and safeguard the interests of Southeast Asian nations amidst the competing influences of great powers.

Bangladesh Crackdowns on Political Opposition

By
Muhammad Salman Tariq
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Power corrupts and becomes an addiction: none has been addicted to power like Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajid. The longest-serving prime minister in Bangladesh belonging to Awami League took charge from 1996-2001 and then from 2009 till date she has been in power. She has been the sitting prime minister for the last 14 years. The next elections are to be held in January 2024 with PM Hasina in the race again to become prime minister for the fifth time. This time she is holding no bars and is making it a priority to become prime minister, wiping out the opposition and criticism against her in any possible ways.

The Bangladeshi people will not stand for a tyrannical fascist rule under her regime and are regularly protesting for fair elections while criticizing the government in whatever way they can digitally or physically.

However, the government is set not to let a single loom of criticism be addressed and instead is on the rampage path to destroy any remnants of protests and opposition to PM Hasina’s throne. It has become a tussle between the sitting government and the opposition party, both blaming each other and neither holding any accountability for the chaos happening.

International human rights watchdogs, Amnesty International, Voice of America, and Human Rights Watch have clearly expressed their concerns about the fascist rule of PM Hasina. It is considered that she has rigged previous elections by manipulating Election Commission, Judiciary, Anti-Corruption Commission, police, and the bureaucracy. She is set to do it again as reported by the office of ‘Asian Legal Resource Center’. PM Hasina has over her tenure improved the international standing of Bangladesh following an independent foreign policy for the securitization of her nation.

The opposition that has criticized her has been tormented and tortured, reportedly since August 2022 around 4000 plus party members and supporters have been arrested belonging to Jamat-e-Islami (JI) and Bangladesh National Party (BNP). The arrests that have been made are trumped-up as ‘fake’.

The crackdowns have adversely targeted protestors and political workers leading to clashes with the police.

Furthermore, the police have charged around over an additional 20,000 BNP supporters. Reportedly party workers of the Awami League and BNP both have sustained injuries in clashes among themselves and have repeatedly gotten into skirmishes. Since her power charge, JI has been under constant target, they have been tried for crimes dating to the 1971 war. Currently, the leader of JI Shafiqur Rehman has been arrested. As soon as he announced a protest opposing PM Hasina, asking her to step down, his home and offices were raided. Likewise, her main opposition leader Khaleda Zia has been a thorn in her side, she has been put in jail multiple times and is facing charges of corruption with up to five years in jail and is currently serving that time.

PM Hasina has radically used state institutions and laws to her benefit. Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), raised post 9/11 with the help of the US to counter terrorism, has now become the spearhead against the opposition. RAB has been framed and called out as personal gangsters of the government using their authority to violate the rights of citizens, hold them without charge, beat them, and torture them. RAB has been accused of human rights violations by various human rights organizations under the accusation of extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and framing incidents. Deutsche Welle has called them out as the ‘Death Squad’.

Bangladesh’s anti-cybercrime law known as Digital Security Act (DSA), was initially aimed to counter propaganda and extremist content online. It has now become the personal watchdog of the government to surveil journalists, teachers, writers, and anyone with an opinion who has criticized the government at any level. Under the DSA heavy fines and jail time is applicable for those who oppose and are considered a threat. Warrantless arrests are permitted on basic suspicion of a cybercrime. Under the DSA, as of May 2023, 339 cases have been filed against journalists since its formulation. Even in the first three months of 2023, 56 journalists have been targeted by the government under DSA.

It is clear that PM Hasina is fighting hard for the next election and is en route to becoming the prime minister for the 5th time. The state is using all the resources at its disposal to actively shut down criticism and opposition against itself.

Freedom of speech has come under threat through the DSA as anyone is the target of the act that has digitized their resistance against the government.

The BNP and JI are under constant siege by the RAB and have become crippled by the wide arrests and raids on them. Bangladesh is at a turning point where the election will decide its fate, and PM Hasina has decided to take the reins of fate itself.

Top 10 countries by renewable energy capacity and fossil fuel consumption

By
Stratheia Research Desk
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Generating Renewable Energy creates far lower emissions than burning fossil fuels. Transitioning from FossilFuels which currently account for the lion’s share of emissions, to renewable energy is key to addressing the climate crisis.

Challenges to Petrodollar Dominance: The Evolving Geopolitics of Oil

By
Saba Kiran
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0

The petrodollar system, which established the dominance of the U.S. dollar in international oil transactions, is facing emerging threats that are reshaping the geopolitics of oil. Recent geopolitical developments, diversification efforts by oil-importing countries, and the rise of alternative currencies are challenging the long-standing position of the petrodollar.

The petrodollar system is showing signs of weakening, primarily due to geopolitical tensions and disagreements among major oil-producing countries. Instances such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and disagreements between the United States and OPEC, dominated by Saudi Arabia, have highlighted the vulnerabilities of the petrodollar system. These challenges have opened doors for alternative currencies and payment systems in international oil trade, leading to a potential shift away from the dominance of the U.S. dollar.

China, with its growing influence in the global economy, has been actively seeking to challenge the petrodollar system. It has been expanding its economic ties with oil-exporting nations and exploring alternative currencies, such as the yuan, for oil trade. Additionally, countries like India and Germany have expressed interest in diversifying their oil trade away from the dollar, further contributing to the challenges faced by the petrodollar system.

While the petrodollar is unlikely to be completely replaced, these diversification efforts and the rise of alternative currencies indicate a shift in the global oil market’s dynamics.

The emerging threats to the petrodollar have significant implications for geopolitics. The dominance of the petrodollar has long provided the United States with economic and political advantages. A potential shift in the global oil market’s dynamics could lead to a more decentralized global monetary system, potentially challenging the United States’ position as the sole global superpower. Moreover, geopolitical realignments and the rise of alternative currencies could reduce the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions and impact the country’s ability to influence global affairs. The evolving landscape of the global oil market and the potential shift in the geopolitics of oil will continue to shape the dynamics of international relations. The petrodollar has long been intertwined with global politics, influencing diplomatic relationships, alliances, and the balance of power. A shift in the geopolitics of oil can disrupt existing political dynamics and create opportunities for new alignments. Countries that have relied heavily on the petrodollar system may seek closer ties with alternative power centers, potentially reshaping geopolitical alliances and diminishing the United States’ influence in global affairs. Furthermore, the changing dynamics could lead to increased competition among major powers for access to oil resources and influence over oil-producing nations, heightening geopolitical tensions and potentially triggering conflicts.

While the petrodollar system is facing challenges, it is important to note that the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the global financial system remains strong. The dollar continues to be in demand due to its secure status and the stability of the U.S. economy. The U.S. dollar still comprises a significant portion of foreign exchange reserves, and the United States maintains its position as a leading economic power. However, the emerging threats to the petrodollar system indicate the need for the United States to adapt to the evolving global oil market and potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape.

The petrodollar has also played a significant role in shaping global security dynamics. The United States, as the dominant beneficiary of the petrodollar system, has used its economic influence to bolster its security interests. However, the emerging threats to the petrodollar could potentially weaken the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions and reduce the country’s ability to leverage its economic power for security purposes.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions and rivalries surrounding oil-producing regions may intensify as countries seek to secure alternative trading arrangements and strengthen their positions in the changing geopolitical landscape.

The petrodollar system, which has long been the cornerstone of the global oil market and the U.S. dollar’s dominance, is facing emerging threats that are reshaping the geopolitics of oil. Geopolitical tensions, diversification efforts, and the rise of alternative currencies challenge the preponderant position of the petrodollar. While the U.S. dollar’s dominance remains strong, the potential shift in the global oil market’s dynamics and the geopolitical implications call for a reassessment of the current order. Adapting to these emerging threats will be crucial for maintaining influence in the evolving geopolitics of oil.

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