Restoring Stability and Strengthening Lebanon’s Deterrence

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November 23, 2024

In particular, the conditions between Lebanon and Israel mark an important stage in the relationships throughout the region in the Middle East. For some people, the only solution is simply a return to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, but given today’s political realities, human needs a new prevention concept. Even if the gross framework of analysis is fully respected and relied upon the means it offers can be insufficient to obviate a long-lasting, and, at times, devastating conflict.

However, the complex war of Hezbollah with Israel and regional and international powers requires a comprehensive approach based on international norms and principles that will make deterrence permanent and avoid immediate confrontation. The resolution 1701 of 2006 helped to reduce conflicts between Lebanon and Israel and put an end to the conflict. It drew a cease-line and deployed the Lebanese United Nations Interim Force on Lebanon (UNIFIL) to oversee the ceasefire line. While good at the time the resolution was never given effect and did not seek to address the power relations that persist to this day as the cause of the conflict.

A return to UN Resolution 1701 is insufficient; a new deterrence framework is essential for addressing current realities.

The situation has changed as Hezbollah became more entangled and sponsored by Iran and regional politics aligned themselves according to other Middle Eastern processes. Sticking with Resolution 1701 without adjusting to some of these changes would be counterproductive, as there is a possibility that the efforts may cause violence to resurface. What is needed is a new deterrence framework for the present conditions. The military forces demonstrated by Hezbollah have undergone enhancements since 2006, with sophisticated weapons and coalition partners.

This growth is a formable threat to Israel and erodes the deterrence factor envisaged by the UN Resolution 1701. The US and Israel’s insistence on a more muscular approach to southern Lebanon to implement this resolution especially the demand for demilitarization shows the weakness of the WEAO 139 current resolution. By claiming more direct control and intervention, they admit the collapse of the previous framework to ensure security from Hezbollah’s changing menace.

Furthermore, regional security depends on the capacity to deter the challenges and threats of the contemporary world. The Middle East is a web of relations where the actions of one state or non-state actor may impose a range of effects on the region. The ongoing war between the two countries will destroy them and other countries in the region as the interests of great powers, such as Iran and others, will be attracted into the conflict.

The effect would be a general reduction in deterrence as countries become more skeptical and aggressive, have an arms race, and face more incidents. This approach is dangerous in that like Sami Halabi suggested, people fail to understand that some strategies need to be adjusted to the current state of affairs and developed for the future. Even though Resolution 1701 temporarily stopped the hostilities, there is no possibility to view that resolution as providing a sustainable long-term solution. The reality today insists on a more rigorous and adaptive response that will effectively deal with the complex military and political tactics of Hezbollah and its allies.

Hezbollah’s enhanced military capabilities pose a formidable threat to Israel, undermining the deterrence established by Resolution 1701.

This entails a combination of military threats as well as diplomatic pressure on the capacitors of the extreme factions to demote their influence in Lebanon and its neighboring countries. Enhancing the national defense benefit is a central part of this new deterrence strategy in Lebanon. The LAF should be sustained and armed so it could work in parallel with Hezbollah and help develop an integrated national defense system. This integration would complement Lebanon’s power in fending off threats apart from depending on foreign support thus would effectively decrease the likelihood of foreign military forces getting involved thus increasing the tensions. To approach the nature of the currently required international assistance we have to take into consideration that help should be sought from the Western countries which should concentrate on offering tangible assurances and modern equipment that can strengthen the LAF.

Further, the conflict-related socio-political demands of Hezbollah’s constituency in Lebanon, to which it owes its support, must also be resolved for sustainable stability. The Lebanese government has failed to deliver on its promises through an economic meltdown, political sleaze, and social instability thus leading to the people embracing Hezbollah. Major political, administrative, and economic designs towards better governance and anti-corruption as well as rebuilding multi-billionaires can erode the political base of

Hezbollah and also diminish its potentiality as a militant group. In other words, the internal desire for the stabilization of the conflict is as necessary as the outside forces ready to deter the conflict. If the world refuses to accept a new deterrence paradigm, it may face a long-sustained conflict between Lebanon and Israel and the destabilization of the entire Middle East. This interdependence of the politics of the region makes it very probable for unrest in one segment to negatively manifest itself in others thereby compromising the general prospects of achieving and maintaining such a state.

Regional security hinges on adapting strategies to contemporary challenges and fostering internal stability within Lebanon.

Thus, a specifically strategic and flexibly applied conception capable of turning military, diplomatic, and socio-political processes into real sources of deterrence is needed to preserve stability in the region and prevent a further weakening of the processes capable of leading to more regular and severe conflicts. In conclusion, it might be important to define that even though resolution 1701 might have effectively contributed to the stoppage of past use of force, it is no longer adequate to meet the new challenges and tendencies of the region.

Lebanon’s failure to employ a proper deterrence doctrine that strengthens national security and exhaustively responds to domestic demands, coupled with new strategies that are adaptive and look towards the future is imperative for stability in the Middle East. If no such an approach is followed, the chance of protracted conflict and, consequently, a less credible deterrence for both Lebanon and Israel and not only these two countries but the entire Middle Eastern region, is endangered. All, including Hezbollah and the other sides, especially the US and Israel, must come up with a working executable, and integrated strategy to guarantee lasting peace and security in the region.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Book Review – Contemporary China in Anglo-American and Chinese Perspectives: Making Sense of a Rising China

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Abu Hurrairah Abbasi

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November 22, 2024

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Emre Demir examines China’s emergence in his book “Contemporary China in Anglo-American and Chinese Perspectives: Making Sense of a Rising China” by highlighting the distinctions and parallels between Chinese and Western scholarly discourse. With an emphasis on the current power structure in knowledge production in Chinese and U.S. societies, the book analyzes 14 approaches from scholars of mainstream U.S., critical Western, mainstream Chinese, and critical Chinese approaches. It aims to uncover their pertinent power-knowledge nexuses and region-centric features in knowledge production.

The book analyzes 14 approaches from both Western and Chinese scholars, revealing their power-knowledge nexuses in knowledge production.

According to Demir, each strategy is in the knowledge creation hierarchy’s core, semi-peripheral, and periphery layers. The United States currently has the central (hegemonic) position in producing knowledge in the social sciences, allowing it to control the methods and means of knowledge production. Thus, under universal validity, the United States may replicate its doctrines worldwide and profit from them. Demir also supports the decolonization of International Relations (IR), a human-centric approach rather than a region-centric one, an emphasis on the colonial histories of states, and the diversification of intellectual knowledge in the social sciences.

Among the three mainstream U.S.-centered theories discussed in the first chapter are offensive realism (John Mearsheimer), neoliberal institutionalism (Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye), and postclassical realism (Robert Gilpin). The chapter presents their U.S.-centered presumptions about the current U.S.-China relationship and the ideas of hegemony, hegemony-building, and hegemonic transition. According to Demir, these problem-solving techniques establish the fundamental tenet of IR knowledge production, and the associated academics generate knowledge that helps American policymakers combat the threats the country faces.

Furthermore, these pro-status quo strategies make ideological assertions that they are “value-free” and universally applicable, meaning they are generally applicable. Although they have diverse perspectives on China’s emergence, the author contends that these methods only examine the ideas of hegemony and hegemonic transition in terms of material terms and from a U.S.-centered perspective when discussing Sino-U.S. relations. Though they disagree on substance, realists—who see China’s emergence as a threat that must be contained—and liberals—who advocate for China’s wider integration into the system—both support the status quo.

The second chapter describes the semi-peripheral social science positions of Historical Materialist Critical Theory (HMCT, Robert Cox) and World-Systems Analysis (WSA, Immanuel Wallerstein) on hegemony, hegemony-building, and hegemonic transition. According to the author, they ironically aid in creating Western-centric knowledge by assisting “the power holders to naturalize, stabilize, and eternalize the existing unjust world-system,” even though he acknowledges their insights in overcoming region-centric knowledge production. He claims that by ignoring their colonial pasts and seeing the East as passive carriers of Western hegemonies in a capitalist global system, these Western-centric viewpoints harm the region.

Demir advocates for a decolonization of International Relations, emphasizing a human-centric approach over region-centric perspectives.

These scholars offer Western-centric explanations for the concept of hegemony and Sino-U.S. relations because they only consider Western powers as hegemons, place too much emphasis on the Westphalian system, and assume that hegemons provide stability. As a result, they share the wisdom of hegemons’ understanding of stability. While WSA and HMCT account for the hegemonic transition by considering economic, ecological, and social factors, they can still not surpass a Western-centric perspective on China’s development.

The third chapter discusses the ideas of hegemony and hegemony-building as they relate to the mainstream Chinese perspectives of Tianxia1 (Zhao Tingyang), Tsinghua2 or Moral Realism (Yan Xuetong), and Relational Theory (Qin Yaqing). According to the author, Zhao offers a Sino-centered ontology in contrast to Qin’s and particularly Yan’s moral realism approach, which incorporates Western and Chinese ontologies.

According to Demir, these methods are ancillary to the creation of knowledge, but these academics are closely associated with the Chinese ruling class and use the presumptions of mainstream American methods to create knowledge that solves problems for the Chinese government. These methods came into being when China’s material capabilities increased, and developing its own IR theories became necessary. They, therefore, aim to flip the label of “China threat,” elevate Chinese knowledge creation to a central position, and overcome American hegemony in knowledge production.

The fourth chapter discusses the New Left, New Right/Neoliberalism, and Neo-Confucianism/Neo-Conservatism as critical Chinese perspectives located on the outskirts of knowledge production. According to Demir, these theories are not elevating the discussion of hegemony-building. Criticizing the “universal” conventional theories, the focus is instead on domestic problems and China’s political, social, and economic transition. In other words, they are not giving the Chinese government knowledge about how to solve problems. According to the author, by concentrating on the problems that China faces at home, these academics provide alternate explanations without ignoring the Chinese people or the government.

Mainstream U.S. theories often present themselves as “value-free,” masking their ideological biases while promoting American hegemony.

The book offers the reader a novel perspective on Sino-American ties. Demir examines the sometimes-overlooked aspect of this subject by contrasting the academic discourse with a human-centric approach, whereas many scholars try to comprehend the problem solely on material grounds using region-centric Western techniques. By doing this, he discovers the existing power dynamics in the system of knowledge creation, including who creates information for whom and who gains from it at the expense of others. He finds that Western critical theories are Western-centric, while Chinese mainstream methods are Sino-centric. As a result, the advantages of these theories are clear.

Similarly, the book emphasizes mental production as a source of power in and of itself and how holding the hegemonic or core position in mental production increases the power of the state that generates it. Mainstream intellectuals in the United States can make their politically motivated and regionally focused methods seem universally applicable and value-free, making them acceptable worldwide.

The book demonstrates how this forces academics from the semi-periphery and periphery to embrace and absorb these presumptions, whether consciously (Chinese mainstream) or unconsciously (Western critical), and to perpetuate American hegemony in knowledge creation. This is clear in the case of mainstream Chinese researchers who, while maintaining the mainstream assumptions in their theories, want to restore the status quo in knowledge production in favor of China. As a result, power itself is a part of academic discourse and discussions of a “rising China.” This book sheds light on this by examining the source and intended use of the knowledge about Sino-American interactions.

The author highlights the need for diversification in intellectual knowledge to address the colonial histories influencing current theories.

Nevertheless, it should not be forgotten that the book seeks to go beyond the current unequal power relations in knowledge production, which take the form of the marginalized status of indigenous IR theories. This exposes (neo)colonial problems in knowledge production systems and global politics. Demir directly opposes the dominant region-centric methodologies that benefit the periphery.

By examining the academic discussions surrounding China’s rise, the author offers insights on Sino-American relations and how to comprehend it. People who wish to learn more about various international relations theories, the arguments surrounding hegemony, hegemony-building, and hegemonic transition, and China’s ascent from different Western and Chinese perspectives could find the book a good read.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Nuclear Safety: India’s Radioactive Woes

By

Nidaa Shahid

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November 22, 2024

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Nuclear Safety — This systemic problem of theft of radioactive materials requires the country to do a serious reevaluation of its internal security frameworks. This cannot be resolved by simply tightening security at major installations; the entire system which governs the handling, storage and disposal of radioactive materials needs better scrutiny.

Ever since receiving the special waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in 2008, India has been expanding its nuclear reach on the global stage. The NSG waiver essentially allowed India to sign nuclear cooperation agreements for sharing of civilian nuclear technology and expertise with several countries despite not being a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). India has signed civilian nuclear deals with 20 countries. The troubling irony of this development lies in the significant vulnerabilities within India’s own nuclear safety and regulatory frameworks, highlighted by recurring incidents of radioactive theft within its borders.

As recently as August 2024, three men were arrested in the Indian state of Bihar with 50 grams of Californium, a highly radioactive material, with a black-market value of at least $100 million.

As recently as August 2024, three men were arrested in the Indian state of Bihar with 50 grams of Californium, a highly radioactive material, with a black-market value of at least $100 million. This is not the first incident of this nature. Nuclear theft has been an issue within India since the 1980’s, however, it seems to have picked up momentum in the recent years. Over the past two decades, more than 25 such incidents have been documented in India, whereas there is no track record of all the undocumented cases.

These are not isolated incidents, rather they point to a broader pattern of weak nuclear governance in the country. All the recent reports indicate that the stolen materials came, not from the generally well-guarded nuclear power plants, but from medical institutions and scrap dealers, etc. This inherent vulnerability of peripheral radioactive sources is inductive of systemic regulatory lapses, creating exploitable gaps for maleficent actors to take advantage of.

So the question that arises here is: can a country, which is grappling with such glaring security lapses within its own border, be a credible authority on providing nuclear safety and regulatory frameworks for other countries? This is not just a rhetorical question but a pressing inquiry. In recent decades, India has been making a push to expand its global nuclear network, aiming to position itself as a leader in the peaceful nuclear domain. However, the discernable pattern of nuclear materials being stolen from within its borders and sold on nuclear black markets every so often raises concerns not only for India but also beyond its borders.

Unsafeguarded radioactive materials pose a global risk, particularly given the proclivity of non-state-actors to exploit the smallest of gaps. While these radioactive materials are not enriched enough to make a full-fledged nuclear weapon, they can be used to create dirty bombs which could lead to environmental contamination and global panic.

Pakistan’s Foreign Office has, time and again, raised concerns, fearing the spillover effect of such thefts into its territory and the South Asian region, however, the issue continues to persist. Many such cases are not even reported by India to the Incident and Trafficking Database (ITDB), which is the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) information system on incidents of illicit trafficking and unauthorized activities involving nuclear or radioactive materials.

While India’s Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) has laid down some guidelines for the handling and safety of radioactive materials, enforcement remains a weak link. In addition, the nuclear power program in India is complex, divided into three distinct streams. The first stream, consisting of military nuclear facilities, does not have any international oversight as it falls outside the preview of the IAEA.

Unsafeguarded radioactive materials pose a global risk, particularly given the proclivity of non-state-actors to exploit the smallest of gaps.

The second stream consisting of civilian Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR) is fully under IAEA safeguards, whereas the third stream, which consists of the Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR) for producing plutonium, falls into the most vulnerable category since these are only partially safeguarded. Thus, while the facilities are monitored, the materials can still be diverted to the military side. These multiple streams provide greater opportunities for malicious actors to gain access to radioactive materials, especially once they leave regulated environments.

It raises doubts, not only about India’s ability to ensure adequate nuclear safety and regulatory oversight over its own program, but also its role as a provider of regulatory expertise to other nations.

This systemic problem of theft of radioactive materials requires the country to do a serious reevaluation of its internal security frameworks. This cannot be resolved by simply tightening security at major installations; the entire system which governs the handling, storage and disposal of radioactive materials needs better scrutiny.

Within this context, the question remains whether India can be a trusted and reliable authority of nuclear safety and regulation. With its endemic problems pertaining to theft of radioactive materials and an evident lack of full regulatory oversight, the country’s ability to provide credible expertise on nuclear issues is far from assured.

PTM Anarchists Undermining Pakistan’s National Security

By

Iftikhar Hussain Jazib

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November 22, 2024

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The Mehsud Tahafuz Movement was rebranded as the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) to enhance its clout in society; now, it is exploiting other issues of public interest to spread anarchy in the country. It has shifted from an anti-war movement to promoting sub-nationalist narratives that aim to incite unrest among the Pashtun masses. Its protests in foreign countries, as well as in front of UN bodies and international human rights organizations, portray it as inviting foreign interventions in the country’s domestic affairs.

On the one hand, it demands that the Armed Forces, law, and intelligence agencies stay away from exercising their legal powers in the country, while on the other hand, it wants indulgence in extraterritorial elements in national issues. These contradictions speak highly about the hypocritical nature of its leaders. Although Manzoor Pashteen presented himself as an anti-war peace activist, his rhetoric was characterized by undemocratic attitudes, hate speech, and racist notions.

PTM has shifted from being an anti-war movement to promoting sub-nationalist narratives that incite unrest among Pashtuns.

Militant outfits have killed over 84 thousand Pakistanis in terrorist attacks and suicide bombings, with victims hailing from various communities in Pakistan. However the shortsighted leadership of PTM is only concerned with Pashtun victims of violence; it lacks inclusiveness, which is against the basic values of democracy. Terrorism has affected the lives of other ethnic communities in Pakistan as well; hence, the leadership of PTM shows racist tendencies in an unjust approach to peace.

PTM’s nefarious agenda to support Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) came to light as it propagated narratives that could create a power vacuum, thereby strengthening terrorist outfits. Therefore, it has shifted its focus to issues of natural resource exploitation and visa regulations in order to maintain its deceptive façade. Pakistan’s constitution clearly addresses the issue of natural resources and minerals, and both provincial and federal democratic governments exist to safeguard shared interests. PTM’s campaign to make it a controversial matter is against the national interest and it has neither a public mandate nor legal grounds to discuss these issues.

TTP destroyed the economy of KP by committing acts of terrorism, and PTM is following suit to keep the Pashtun masses impoverished by opposing projects aimed at developing natural resources. Society regarded PTM as a peace movement, and state authorities actively engaged its leadership to reduce the social influence of violent extremist and terrorist ideologues. Regrettably, PTM leaders began to align themselves with extremist ideologies, leading to hate speech and illegal activities that disappointed pro-peace forces in Pakistan.

The leadership of PTM shows racist tendencies by only addressing Pashtun victims of violence while ignoring other ethnic communities affected by terrorism.

PTM leaders became known for their strong opposition to security forces’ counterterrorism measures and their use of derogatory language against national security institutions. As a result, TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud lavished praise on PTM leaders in 2018. They crafted a false narrative of survival for Pashtun ethnicity, and PTM became a complementary movement to violent extremist and terrorist outfits.

Manzoor Pashteen’s initiative, the Pashtun national jirga, represents an additional constitutional step in the PTM process. Ironically, the Pashtun national jirga failed to confront the Taliban, who oppressed the ethnic identity of Pashtuns by linking it to terrorism, despite the fact that the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban are essentially Pashtun. It should have raised anti-Taliban slogans to set free Pashtuns from the grip of violence. On the other hand, leaders such as Manzoor Pashteen, Ali Wazir, Mohsin Dawar, and others failed to raise awareness against terrorism within society.

They were unable to address the issue of terrorist outfits recruiting Pashtuns, and they refrained from responding to inquiries about Pashtun’s susceptibility to violent extremism. This indicates a lack of understanding of the true nature of the issue, as well as a lack of sincerity and courage in confronting the Taliban. The TTP exploited the culture of vengeance and carrying arms to promote terrorism in the Pashtun heartland, while the PTM failed to promote healthy conduct in this area.

The PTM’s opposition to visa regulations and border control mechanisms aims to strengthen the alliance between terrorists and smugglers, thereby facilitating the free movement of terrorists, arms, and explosives on the Pak-Afghan border. We expect a rise in the frequency of terrorist attacks and suicide bombings in society as a result. The international community took extraordinary measures to combat the threat of terrorism, with countries such as the USA resorting to discriminatory physical searches at airports to ensure homeland security.

PTM’s opposition to visa regulations aims to facilitate the movement of terrorists across the Pak-Afghan border.

Besides, the PTM leadership remains steadfast in its opposition to the removal of anti-terrorism mechanisms from the tribal district of KP, and it has joined the TTP in demanding that security forces evacuate these areas. PTM’s stance on identity documents and Pakistan’s visa policy is against international law and norms of international relations; it demands the government surrender sovereignty to Afghanistan, which would be unacceptable for any independent state in the world. Its leadership is inclined to support a foreign government at the cost of Pakistan’s interests.

Afghan immigrants participate in PTM protests against Pakistan in other countries. ISAF and NATO forces abandoned them, leaving them with a bleak future. PTM’s involvement with these elements goes against Pakistan’s interests, further exposing its nefarious agenda to undermine national security institutions. The inability of PTM’s leaders to recognize modern state-based international relations and their subversive agenda is a real problem.

The government has declared PTM a threat to national peace and security, citing its activities as prejudicial to the state.

PTM’s use of harsh and derogatory language towards security institutions in Pakistan, along with its lenient stance towards the Afghan Taliban, TTP, and other militant outfits, is questionable and unacceptable to the country’s peace-loving populace. Therefore, the government has declared PTM a threat to the country’s peace and security, in accordance with Pakistani laws, to curb its nefarious designs.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Implications Of China Controlling the Chancay Port In Peru For the US

By

Anees Muhammad Khan

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November 22, 2024

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China is investing in strategic projects all over the world to ensure it has free access to commercial goods. In this regard, it has been investing in the Asian countries – Gwadar Port, Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, and Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar – which have been dubbed as ‘String of Pearls’ by the West. However, the recent inauguration of the $3.5 billion Chancay port complex, 80 kilometers south of capital Lima, Peru, in South America by Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sideline of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum sent shock waves across the globe. For the West, it symbolizes China’s growing clout in the world. But for China, it represents free flow of commercial goods without any fear of restrictions/ban by the United States and the West.

The Chancay port is owned by Hong Kong Listed COSCO Shipping Ports with 60% of stakes and a 30-year concession to manage the facility. It is well equipped to handle largest container vessels as well due availability of ample depth of 17.8 meters.

The United States and the West are well aware of the Mahan dictums that who so ever control the sea control the world.

China regards it as a port of ‘connectivity’ between China and Peru as well as the entire South America while the United States has advised a veiled caution to the Latin American nations about Chinese investments. Peru is the fastest economies of the region and the fourth largest partner of China in bilateral trade which stood around $36 Billion in 2023. The added advantage of the Chancay port for China is that Chile, Colombia and Ecuador can now bypass ports in Mexico and the US for their trade in Asia. It’s a new addition to the Chinese Road and Belt Initiative (BRI) for enhancing trade and obviously Chinese influence.

Also read: US-China Trade War in New Trump Era

Although China is the world’s second largest economy, it is still way behind the US as the hegemonic state managing the world affairs. However, the United States has its own fears of China due its seaward economic expansion.

The United States and the West are well aware of the Mahan dictums that who so ever control the sea control the world. First the West and then the US have also followed the same. Colonization of the Third World in the 17th and 18th centuries by the UK, France, Portugal, Spain and others was possible due their control of sea in their own domains. After the World War II, the US has established its bases all around the globe. Today, it is proudly boasting holding around 100 overseas bases in one form or another. These bases and the vast US naval and air fleet are helping it managing dominance in the world against other competitors. Apparently, its competitors respect the same as of today, but for how long, it isn’t a safe guess.

Also read: Smart City: Leveraging China’s Success For Developing Nations

China, however, seems to be following the Mahan’s policy from its own perspective in the form of its economic control of sea. Its BRI concept is now seeping deeply in Asia, Europe and Latin America. China as per political pundits has earmarked the mid of the current century as its yawning point. Its present endeavors are testimony of the same or at least it seems to the West.

It’s also a fact that the nature nurtures change. Like the fifth extinctions, the word affairs have also been dominated by different regimes in the recorded history – from the Greeks to Rome, Byzantines to Arabs, Turks to modern Europe and from Europe to the US. It is, thus, natural that the world order is a changing process. How and when is the only question?

The only logical contestant is China. In spite of China’s apparent claim to the contrary and its economic inclusivity doctrine, its growing economic influence is a thorn in the eyes of West and this thorn is likely to be more painful in times to come due to continued economic prosperity of the China. Only time is the judge.

Smart City: Leveraging China’s Success For Developing Nations

By

Corinna Perini

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November 22, 2024

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A smart city in the modern world is the one that experiences a rapid process of growth, which combine comfort and technology. These cities are built to maximize the usage of technology and big data to enhance the standard living, minimize wastage and ensure effective development. The five BRICS members – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – have made tremendous advancement when it comes to the smart city concept. However, China is ahead of all and can be as model for the rest of the Global South to learn on how to best adopt the smart city concept with their respective context.

Together, the BRICS nations contain nearly 40 percent of the world’s population and some of the most rapidly growing cities. The problem is these nations are confronting with many issues concerning urban migration, environment issues and infrastructure. But smart cities provide a solution where digital technology that can ‘retrofit’ these urban centers to be more efficient, resilient and sustainable. Smart city projects are not just deployment of technologies for the countries of BRICS but also strategic initiatives to address governance and the citizens’ quality of life.

China’s smart city model is characterized by three core components: integral communication networks, PPP (public-private partnership) and analytical information systems.

Out of the BRICS members, China plays a most proactive role for realizing the smart city concept as a part of its urbanization policy. There are currently over 500 pilot smart cities in China. Its approach is about incorporating technology into planning and designing a city employing IoT devices, AI, and big data in everything ranging from traffic control to controlling energy usage.

China’s smart city model is characterized by three core components: integral communication networks, PPP (public-private partnership) and analytical information systems. It has all vested China’s urban centers in the digital age, made cities as points of connection, productivity, and innovation.

China has especially focused on the development of a strong digital platform. The country 5G network is arguably among the fastest and most comprehensive which enhances the network connectivity in all major cities. China’s smart cities built on a solid foundation of Fiber Optic Broadband and IoT devices to ensure data gathering and analysis in real time. For instance, in Shenzhen and Hangzhou, intelligent traffic management system that employ sensors as well as AI algorithms helps in making optimization of the traffic hence lesser congestion and pollution.

The success of smart city development in China also partly owing to that it established a PPP model. The role of the Chinese government, as an initiating party, include establishing the policy framework and allocating financial resources. On the other hand, the scientific and technological enterprises from the private sector, like Huawei and Alibaba, inject innovation and advanced technologies. Alibaba’s City Brain project in Hangzhou has transformed the way functions of a city are controlled through centralizing the flow of transportation, safety, and healthcare systems under an AI-based network. Such a cooperation example shows the audiences how the partnership can enhance the pace of smart city projects.

When it comes to the Global South, there is a need to determine what specific challenges affect various urban areas and design smart city-solutions based on these factors.

Another characteristic of the Chinese concept of smart cities is big data processing and analysis. Using data, such administrators in cities can make good decisions and even prevent problems from occurring or even give improved services. Analytics of large urban areas such as Beijing and Shanghai utilize data for the appropriate allocation of the city resources, and traffic and emergency response forecasting. The use of real-time data means that the different decisions made regarding the city services will be informed by the citizens’ needs.

Even though overall conditions in China might look different from those in other countries of the Global South, there are several positive practices that may be adopted. Due to resource constraints, political instability and unplanned fragmentations that small developing countries experience, an innovative strategy of emulating the China experience is the way forward for implementing smart cities.

This leads to one of the most significant learning: it’s more important to solve local problems with local means than to apply high-tech solutions. In China, smart cities are defined in accordance with the resolution of certain problems related to urban development, including transportation issues, environmental pollution, and security. Thus, when it comes to the Global South, there is a need to determine what specific challenges affect various urban areas and design smart city-solutions based on these factors.

For instance, in the African cities where the issue of water is an acute, smart water management systems can be given priority. This consisted of an active role for the government, as well as private enterprise, as is the case in China, and can be a game changer for the Global South. Therefore, governments should approach the private players to facilitate any investment by removing policies’ ambiguity and providing incentives. Companies that are already established in a region can support the governments in scaling up smart city projects.

Smart City Essential identified is the necessary condition of a robust Digital Architecture. Challenges such as restricted access to internet and the unreliability of power supply are a big problem for many developing nations. As observed in the Chinese case, countries in the Global South need to establish strong digital infrastructures like the 5G investment in the IoT devices.

With the efforts in utilizing new technologies, opening access to broadband connections persistently, and establishing local technology hubs, gaps in the digital divide can be effectively closed, which can promote the building of smart cities. Another factor is that China has shifted its focus towards data-driven governance as an important factor of successful smart city. In the developing countries of the southern hemisphere, in particular, data are restricted and the data available may be dispersed. By introducing the top-down data infrastructures and encouraging information exchange between various government departments, the cities can advance their decision-making.

Kartarpur Corridor: A Gateway For Pakistan-India Peace

By

Arshad Mehmood

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November 21, 2024

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To unlock the Kartarpur Corridor's potential as a catalyst for reconciliation, both Pakistan and India need to adopt a pragmatic approach. Confidence-building measures beyond the corridor can reinforce mutual trust. Resuming bilateral dialogues on trade, water-sharing, and cultural exchanges can provide a foundation for long-term engagement.

At least, 10,000 Sikh pilgrims from across the world, including India, arrived in Pakistan to participate in the 555th birth anniversary celebrations of Baba Guru Nanak, the founder of Sikhism.

Baba Guru Nanak, revered as Guru Nanak Dev Ji, is the illustrious founder of Sikhism and the first among the 10 esteemed Sikh Gurus. His life journey began on April 15, 1469 in the quaint village of Talwandi, which is now recognized as Nankana Sahib, situated in present-day Pakistan.

A Sikh Guru is a spiritual teacher and guide who imparts wisdom, promotes equality, and leads followers on the path of truth and devotion in Sikhism.

Guru Nanak’s core principles include the belief in one universal Creator, meditation on God’s name, and His hymns and teachings, later compiled in the Guru Granth Sahib, form the spiritual foundation of Sikhism.

He spent his later years in Kartarpur, a town he established in present-day Pakistan, living a life dedicated to service and community.

Kartarpur, located in the Narowal district near the India-Pakistan border, holds equal spiritual importance as the place where Guru Nanak spent the last 18 years of his life.

Nankana Sahib, situated about 75 kilometers west of Lahore, is revered as the birthplace of Baba Guru Nanak, the founder of Sikhism. It is a prominent pilgrimage site, home to several historic Gurdwaras commemorating Guru Nanak’s early life and teachings.

Kartarpur, located in the Narowal district near the India-Pakistan border, holds equal spiritual importance as the place where Guru Nanak spent the last 18 years of his life, establishing the Gurdwara Darbar Sahib. This is also where he passed away in 1539, making it one of the holiest shrines in Sikhism.

The two sites, connected through their deep ties to Guru Nanak’s life, represent sacred milestones in Sikh heritage. Together, they form a spiritual circuit for millions of Sikh pilgrims who visit Pakistan to honor the legacy of their revered Guru.

The Kartarpur Corridor, in particular, has further strengthened the accessibility and emotional connection between these two iconic landmarks by facilitating visa-free pilgrimage from India to Kartarpur, underscoring Pakistan’s efforts to promote interfaith harmony.

Since the establishment of this corridor, hundreds of thousands of Sikh devotees have made the pilgrimage to pay their respects and connect with their spiritual heritage.

The initiative not only symbolizes goodwill between the two neighboring countries but also promotes intercultural understanding and strengthens the bonds of the Sikh community around the world.

The “Highway of Peace and Friendship” corridor symbolizes goodwill between the two nations. Despite strained relations in subsequent years, the Kartarpur Corridor remains operational, providing visa-free access for Sikh pilgrims.

The Kartarpur Corridor is a historic initiative symbolizing interfaith harmony and diplomatic goodwill. Located in Punjab, Pakistan, the corridor connects the Dera Baba Nanak shrine in Gurdaspur, India, to the Gurdwara Darbar Sahib in Kartarpur, Pakistan, the final resting place of Baba Guru Nanak, the founder of Sikhism.

Despite its symbolism, the Kartarpur Corridor has yet to become a transformative force in Indo-Pak relations.

This visa-free passage allows Sikh pilgrims from India to visit one of their holiest sites without the complexities of traditional travel requirements.

For decades, Indian Sikhs had to view the Gurdwara from across the border with binoculars, yearning for a closer connection.

The corridor’s opening in 2018, which corresponded with the 550th birth anniversary of Baba Guru Nanak, turned this dream into reality, making it an unparalleled gesture of respect and inclusivity by Pakistan.

Named the “Highway of Peace and Friendship,” the Kartarpur Corridor was hailed as a beacon of hope in the tumultuous relationship between Pakistan and India.

The corridor’s diplomatic significance cannot be overstated. For decades, relations between Pakistan and India have been marred by mistrust, border skirmishes, and unresolved disputes, most notably over Kashmir.

The Kartarpur Corridor emerged as a rare instance of cooperation, showing that the two nations can unite over shared cultural and religious heritage.

By offering a space for dialogue and goodwill, the corridor has demonstrated the potential to transcend political divides.

The corridor’s operational continuity, even amid heightened tensions, is a testament to its resilience. After the Indian government revoked Article 370 in August 2019, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its special status, relations between the two countries deteriorated further. Diplomatic ties were downgraded, and cross-border trade was suspended. Yet, the Kartarpur Corridor remained functional, reflecting its sanctity and Pakistan’s commitment to interfaith harmony.

Despite its symbolism, the Kartarpur Corridor has yet to become a transformative force in Indo-Pak relations. Several factors hinder its potential to restore trust. The deep-seated mistrust between the two governments limits the corridor’s diplomatic utility.

While Pakistan views the initiative as a goodwill gesture, Indian authorities have expressed concerns about possible security threats and alleged misuse of the corridor for political propaganda. The unresolved Kashmir conflict remains a major roadblock to improving ties.

For India, any engagement with Pakistan is contingent on addressing cross-border terrorism, a claim Pakistan denies. Without progress on such core issues, the corridor’s impact is confined to religious diplomacy.

Both nations often politicize the corridor to cater to domestic audiences. In Pakistan, it is portrayed as a testament to its inclusivity and goodwill, while in India, the initiative is sometimes overshadowed by nationalist rhetoric, diluting its potential as a peace-building tool.

Bilateral trade and economic cooperation, vital for any meaningful reconciliation, remain frozen. The corridor, while symbolically significant, does not address broader economic concerns that could foster interdependence and reduce hostility.

To unlock the Kartarpur Corridor’s potential as a catalyst for reconciliation, both Pakistan and India need to adopt a pragmatic approach. Confidence-building measures beyond the corridor can reinforce mutual trust. Resuming bilateral dialogues on trade, water-sharing, and cultural exchanges can provide a foundation for long-term engagement.

A collaborative approach to tackle the shared challenges, such as climate change and poverty, could further ease tensions.

Both nations must ensure that the Kartarpur Corridor remains above political agendas. Collaborative management of the corridor and joint events celebrating shared heritage can help maintain its sanctity as a symbol of peace.

Facilitating more visa-free exchanges for religious and cultural tourism can foster grassroots connections. Increased interaction between ordinary citizens has the potential to humanize relations and counter divisive narratives.

Engaging in multilateral platforms like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation to address broader regional issues can complement the goodwill generated by the corridor. A collaborative approach to tackle the shared challenges, such as climate change and poverty, could further ease tensions.

The Kartarpur Corridor stands as a powerful symbol of what is possible when two nations prioritize common humanity over entrenched divisions. While its immediate impact on Pakistan-India relations has been limited, the corridor serves as a reminder that peace is achievable through shared values and mutual respect.

To realize its full potential, both nations must take deliberate steps to bridge their differences, starting with depoliticizing initiatives like the Kartarpur Corridor.

Though challenges persist, the corridor provides a rare and enduring example of cooperation in one of the world’s most contentious regions, offering a glimmer of hope for a more peaceful future.

Social Media As A Driver Of Public Opinion

By

Dr. Ghulam Mujaddid

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November 21, 2024

0

Social media has brought a huge change in people’s perception around the world and Pakistan isn’t an exception. Being one of the rapidly growing countries in terms of internet users, Pakistanis use social media – including Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and TikTok – to gather information and formulating their opinions on social, political or economic issues. This has led to dramatic changes in the means of communication and becoming more public, frequently avoiding media intermediaries. The positive impact of social media in manipulating public opinion is an important factor affecting the social context of Pakistan to a great extent.

In the past decade, mobile internet user penetration has grown immensely in the Pakistan primarily on the back of cheaper smartphones and mobile data. In the light of the latest data relevant to Pakistani users, it has been established that over 100 million locals have internet connection, and a vast number of them use social networks.

There is no doubt that the social media presence has levelled out the playing field by providing a platform for the suppressed in Pakistan.

Social networking sites such as Facebook, X [formerly known as Twitter] and YouTube are widely employed by students, working persons, politicians and even activists. They have popularized the use of social media which affords people an opportunity to share and make comments on diverse issues cutting across political leadership, entertainment and other key interest areas.

There is no doubt that the social media presence has levelled out the playing field by providing a platform for the suppressed in Pakistan. While the mainstream media is under the government and corporate control, the platforms provide an opportunity to the people to express their ideas freely. This has resulted into a changed way of sharing information that is being accessed in the country. Therefore, social media is now a core determinant of public opinion.

In Pakistan, social media has a most active role by which people are actively participating in politics. The political class of the society and the political parties have immensely relied on social media to popularize their agenda and mobilize their supporters. That’s why X and Facebook have become the territories where their supporters systematically advance their programs, attack opponents, and engage entrants during election campaigns.

Also read: Citizen Journalism: A Double-Edged Sword

In this regard, arguably, the 2024 general elections in Pakistan also shifted somewhat in this regard, as ever more political parties started to turn to social media to get their message through directly to the masses, and especially the young. Politics went virtual as social media campaigns, rallies streamed on the internet, and hashtags became campaign tools in the elections. Both PTI and PML-N were very active in this regard, as engaged they public directly, thus sidestepping the mainstream media. This trend has only increased, with the media becoming the center stage in the political environment of Pakistan.

On social media platforms like X, there is no editorial control; hence, some of the information shared could be biased or half-truth.

It has also been influential in providing voices to smaller political parties and civil society organizations. For example, PTM and Aurat March have used social media specifically for creating awareness about their causes, and for rallying their supporters to attend the protests. Due to the advantages of social media, people using X and Facebook in particular have been able to focus on subjects that are irrelevant for mainstream media such as human rights violation and gender inequality.

In this respect, these networking websites have dramatically influenced the way the people of Pakistan think about events and problems around them. The real time nature of information on such platforms enables the user to capture current events as they happen, before they are reported by conventional media channels. In disaster-like situations or periods of political turbulence or pandemics, social media is an excellent source of real-time information and becomes part of the reference point for public opinions.

For instance, throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, social media networks became the primary source of information dissemination, protective measures, and vaccinations. It was seen that using social sites like Twitter and Facebook, health authorities along with the journalists and the citizens actively posted messages and provided information for mass awareness. But that speed wasn’t boring, it was very dangerous: people got confused by numerous fake news, lies, and unverified information regarding the virus’ origins and vaccine effectiveness.

While the social media has enabled people in Pakistan open to express themselves freely, it has also made a path to misinformation, fakes news, and hatred speech. The social media is characterized by the spread of information and, therefore, fake information can spread faster than the truth. The problem is, in a country like Pakistan where literacy rates are considerably low and people may or may not think critically, this can be dangerous.

Another important phenomenon which has been aggravated in Pakistan is political polarization. This has resulted in what is known as echo chambers; the users are dominated with the content that supports their political beliefs. This has resulted in political and social factions that are hostile, therefore, thus writing off the any possibility of any constructive discourse on matters of national importance. By contrast, the role social media plays is to propagate extreme opinions and enmity, thus increase the split in society.

The social media effects have also affected the conventional media in the same way. Television networks, newspapers and reporters have been greatly affected since the change in the consumption of news. Most news organizations have active accounts on social media sites to disseminating basic news and bulletins, commentary as well as participation.

At the same time, the social networks mean bloggers, vloggers, and other citizens can become popular through propagating their views. It has thus democratized information by enabling people to counter the well-established media outlets. However, this trend also has its drawbacks. On social media platforms like X, there is no editorial control; hence, some of the information shared could be biased or half-truth.

Trump and Iran: The Five Possible US Policy Choices

By

Muhammad Hussain Baqeri

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November 20, 2024

1

Donald Trump, who had adopted aggressive policies towards Iran during his previous presidency, this time too has promised to make drastic changes in the US policy vis-à-vis Tehran.

With the Republicans controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate, his hands are not tied and he can go ahead with implementing his policies and plans this time at the international stage.

With his victory in the 2024 elections, the US-Iran relations will enter a new phase. Here are five possible policies of Trump toward the Islamic Republic of Iran:

1. Return To The “Maximum Pressure” Strategy:

One of the first consequences of Trump’s return to the White House will be the possibility of reviving the “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran. This policy, which was implemented during his first term, included extensive sanctions against various sectors of the Iranian economy, especially the oil and gas industries. In his first term, Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and imposed sanctions on Iran, whose aim was to paralyze Iran’s economy and bring the country to the negotiating table.

Returning to this approach means increasing sanctions and economic restrictions, including those related to the sale of oil to China and financial exchanges with the UAE, to pressure the Iranian government to agree on nuclear and regional issues.

2. Achieving A “Better Agreement” With Iran:

Achieving a “better deal” was one of Trump’s main promises in the 2024 election campaigns. Trump has always believed that the JCPOA is insufficient and incomplete, and could not prevent the progress of Iran’s nuclear program. He has announced that he will seek an agreement that not only limits Iranian nuclear program but also deals with missile issues and Iran’s regional policies.

A few weeks ago, in an interview with a famous American podcast, he said: “I want to see Iran be very successful, but the only thing they cannot do is have nuclear weapons!”

3. Attempt To Isolate Iran In The Region:

Trump wants to change the geopolitical equation in the Middle East. During the first term of his presidency, he established close relations with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia. He signed the “Abrahamic Accords” to normalize relations between the Arab countries and Israel.

Also read: A Circle Of faithful: What Plans Do Top Trump Cabinet Members have?

His return to the White House could mean restrengthening these alliances and trying to isolate Iran in the region, especially with the Republicans’ new security plan for the future of Gaza and the efforts of Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, to bring Saudi Arabia and the UAE into the issue of Palestinian-Israeli tension.

Also, the second Trump administration will put the advancement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor or IMEC on the agenda, which will be detrimental to Iran.

4. Intensification of US-China Trade War And Its Consequences For Iran:

The intensification of the trade war between the United States and China is also among the plans of the second Trump administration, which will significantly impact Iran. In his first term, Trump showed that he has a strict approach toward China, and it is likely that this line of action will continue in the second term as well.

Since Iran and China have close relations and China is the leading buyer of Iranian oil, the escalation of tensions between Washington and Beijing can indirectly affect Iran and even lead to increased pressure on Iranian oil exports. Also, in his election promises, Trump mentioned that if it continues to buy oil from Iran, China will face more severe consequences in his second administration.

5. Increasing Military Tensions:

Due to Trump’s very close relationship with Netanyahu and his cabinet’s strong attachment to Israel, there is a possibility of increasing military tensions in the region. Before this, the Biden administration had defined red lines for Israeli politicians in attacking Iran, such as nuclear and oil facilities. However, these red lines will no longer exist for Israel with the return of Trump.

Although Trump, according to various American media reports, asked Netanyahu for a ceasefire in the region before he entered the White House, he will open Netanyahu’s hand for any military action in the region, if Iran and Israel continue to attack each other. In this regard, Leon Panetta, a former head of the CIA, said: “About the Middle East, I think he will practically sign a blank check to Netanyahu.”

Balochistan: A Victim of Geopolitics Or Socioeconomic Grievances?

By

Dr. Abdul Rauf Iqbal

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November 20, 2024

0

Balochistan has been grappling with sub-nationalists-induced violence for decades, characterized by attacks on critical infrastructure, armed forces, and the civilian population. The sub-nationalists attribute Balochistan’s militancy to multiple factors. However, this analysis critically examines their claims of unfair exploitation of natural resources by the federal government, missing persons, and low human development. The reason for dissecting these three issues is that militants manipulate and exaggerate them to muster public support and justify militancy. Understanding that a comprehensive approach is necessary to address these issues is imperative.

Firstly, the sub-nationalists claim that the federal government is unduly exploiting Balochistan’s natural resources of Saindak, Reko Diq and Sui. Let’s empirically analyse these claims.

The grievances of Balochistan, a critical issue, serves as a facade for geopolitical contestation, highlighting how socioeconomic challenges are exploited to justify militancy.

Saindak is operated under a lease agreement between Metrological Construction Company of China (MCC) and Saindak Metals Limited (SML) of Pakistan. As per lease agreement 2022-37, the net profit is distributed as 47% for MCC, 37% for SML and 16% for Balochistan.^[i] Moreover, Balochistan receives 6.5% as royalty on sales value and 6.5% as corporate social responsibility on net profit.^[ii]

Reko Diq gold and copper mine is currently 50% owned by Barrick Gold Corporation, 25% by federal enterprises, and 25% by Balochistan.^[iii] The province is getting 25% profit from Reko Diq with only 15% provincial investment besides local employment.

Pakistan’s gas supply comes from Sindh (50%), Balochistan (15%), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (10%), Punjab (2%), and imported Regasified Liquefied Natural Gas (RLNG) (23%). Balochistan’s natural gas contributes 15% to the country’s national gas mix, while provincial consumption is 5%.^[iv] The geographical vastness and security problems contribute to less consumption. The remaining 10% of natural gas is sold to the other provinces.

Balochistan is getting its due economic dividends from provincial natural resources. After the 18th Amendment, Balochistan fully controls all natural resources except oil and gas. Therefore, the so-called exploitation of Balochistan’s natural resources by the federal government is more propaganda than reality.

Table 1: Summary of Missing Persons
	Cases	Recovered	Remaining
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa	3,485	2,149	1,336
Balochistan	2,752	2,284	468
Sindh	2,216	1,893	323
Punjab	1,625	1,365	260
Pakistan	10,078	7,691	2,387
Source: Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances 2024.

Secondly, the sub-nationalists claim that law enforcement agencies are allegedly involved in enforced disappearances. They claim that more than 5,000 persons are missing in Balochistan.^[v] However, it contradicts the report of the Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances formed in 2011. In Balochistan, 2,284 persons out of 2,752 have returned to their homes, and the whereabouts of only 468 persons are unknown as of January 2024 (Table 1).^[vi]

In some instances, militants are also registered as missing persons. Often, such missing persons are found dead in terrorist attacks. For example, Tayyab Baloch, who had reportedly gone missing in April 2024, was involved in the suicide attack on an FC camp in Bela on 26 Aug 2024.^[vii] Similarly, Karim Jan attacked the Gwadar Port Authority complex on 20 March 2024. Abdul Wadood Satakzai, a missing person, attacked Mach City on 30 January 2024.^[viii] Saleem Baloch was killed during the Ziarat operation in July 2022.^[ix] Contrary to claims, enforced disappearances are sometimes exploited as a pretext to join militant organizations. Furthermore, the issue of missing persons is often framed as a human rights concern, potentially serving to discredit state institutions.

Thirdly, Balochistan faces multifaceted health, education, and socioeconomic challenges.^[x] For this, the federal government started multiple development projects in the last two decades (Table 2). Moreover, Balochistan’s share of the NFC Award 2010 has also increased from 5.11% to 9.09%.

Owing to this increased funding, several educational and health facilities and road infrastructure have been built in Balochistan (Table 3). However, Balochistan’s human development index (HDI) is still the lowest among all four provinces. In the past two and half decades, the HDI score has gradually increased to 0.473 (out of 1, details at endnote).^[xi]

Even though Balochistan’s development indicators are positively progressing, the instability and insurgency are still rooted. Figure 1 shows that terrorist incidents and deaths have also increased, especially after the development of Gwadar Port and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).^[xii]

This contradiction implies that socioeconomic grievance cannot be regarded as the sole reason behind terrorism. Therefore, it is crucial to evaluate the linkage between CPEC and increased violence post-CPEC, as this could provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of the conflict.

The success of development projects under CPEC is directly linked with peace and stability in Balochistan. Figure 2 shows that the militants oppose development in Balochistan. Data indicates that the number of killings in post-CPEC terrorist activities has doubled. This will deprive the general Baloch population of the economic dividends of CPEC and keep the provincial resources entangled in security issues.

Historically, the unrest in Balochistan was concentrated in the northern part of the province around Dera Bugti and Kohlu. However, terrorism-related incidents have declined in Dera Bugti and its surroundings post-CPEC. At the same time, such incidents have increased in Gwadar and Khuzdar, as indicated in Figure 3.

This shift in militancy from north to south, along the route of CPEC, is a clear indication of the changing dynamics of the conflict. It shows that the militants’ narrative of so-called unfair exploitation of natural resources, missing persons, and low human development does not reflect the causal factors behind militancy in Balochistan. If that were the case, militancy should have decreased with development packages and improved HDI. It means that scuttling CPEC is one of the main objectives of militancy.

This instability obstructs Balochistan from fully utilizing its resources and fosters a strategic advantage for external actors like the US and India. For the US, an unstable Balochistan hinders the successful implementation of CPEC, thereby impeding Pak-China joint geoeconomic interests. Likewise, it is in India’s geopolitical interest to counterbalance Pakistan and China through supporting militants. The arrest of an Indian naval officer, Kalbushan Jadev, shows that Balochistan has become a battleground for geopolitical contestation. Thus, the unrest in Balochistan serves the strategic interests of external powers aiming to counter China/CPEC.

In sum, the grievance narrative serves as a façade to cover the geopolitical contestation in Balochistan. Sub-nationalists supported by foreign actors exaggerate false narratives that spread through social media and other means to manipulate public perception. It is also essential to recognize that relatively low HDI is a significant issue that needs to be addressed. Therefore, a comprehensive and whole-of-nation approach is required to address the geopolitical problems at the strategic level and carry out socioeconomic development at the tactical/ operational level. A mix of non-kinetic and kinetic actions can bring peace to Balochistan.

References:

[i] Mr. Humayun Mahmood, Vice President Saindak Project, Interview with Author. 30% profit out of 53% share of Pakistan is given to Balochistan which becomes almost 16% of total profit.

[ii] Saindak Metal Limited Annual Report, https://saindak.com.pk/publications/

[iii] Barrick Gold Corporation, https://www.barrick.com/English/operations/reko-diq/default.aspx

[iv] Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), State of the Regulated Petroleum Industry 2022-23.

[v] Sammi Deen Baloch, “More than 5,000 people are missing in Balochistan”, The Guardian, 6 July 2022.

[vi] Omay Aimen, “A Job Well Done”, Pakistan Observer, 14 January 2024.

[vii] “Alleged missing person identified as perpetrator in BLA terror attack in Balochistan”, Express Tribune, 29 Aug 2024.

[viii] Public Talk by Mr Jan Achakzai, Information Minister Balochistan.

[ix] Associated Press of Pakistan. “Video footages, confessions expose so-called Baloch missing persons fighting against Pak Army”, 21 July 2022.

[x] Pakistan Economic Survey, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, World Bank Reports.

[xi] Human Development Index (HDI) is compiled into a single number between 0 and 1.0, with 1.0 being the highest possible human development. HDI is divided into four tiers: very high human development (0.8-1.0), high human development (0.7-0.79), medium human development (0.55-.70), and low human development (below 0.55).

[xii] South Asia Terrorism Portal, https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terrorist-attack/incidents-data/pakistan-balochistan

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China’s smart city model is characterized by three core components: integral communication networks, PPP (public-private partnership) and analytical information systems.

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Kartarpur, located in the Narowal district near the India-Pakistan border, holds equal spiritual importance as the place where Guru Nanak spent the last 18 years of his life.

Despite its symbolism, the Kartarpur Corridor has yet to become a transformative force in Indo-Pak relations.

A collaborative approach to tackle the shared challenges, such as climate change and poverty, could further ease tensions.

There is no doubt that the social media presence has levelled out the playing field by providing a platform for the suppressed in Pakistan.

On social media platforms like X, there is no editorial control; hence, some of the information shared could be biased or half-truth.

The grievances of Balochistan, a critical issue, serves as a facade for geopolitical contestation, highlighting how socioeconomic challenges are exploited to justify militancy.

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