The US-India defense partnership has been evolving gradually and steadily in recent years. From signing foundational agreements like Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), the Communication Compatibility and Security agreement (COMCASA), the Logistics Exchange Memorandum (LEMOA) to recently signing of two transformational deals in August 2024, the trajectory is very much clear.

In this connection, the signing of a Security of Supply Agreement (SOSA) and other defense deals during Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to the United States marks a pivotal moment in Indo-US relations, thus paving the way for India to access sophisticated US defense technology, fostering domestic defense capabilities and solidifying its position as a key defense partner.

The recent deals like SOSA and the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Liaison Officers as well as the ongoing discussions around the Reciprocal Defense Procurement (RDP) agreement epitomize military, strategic and industrial cooperation between the two nations.

Beijing sees these measures as part of broader a US strategy to contain its influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

It is very much clear that the strategic configuration of SOSA aligns with the broader US strategy of enhancing supply chain during emergencies by facilitating the swift transfer of defense-related goods and services between the US and its partners. After signing this agreement India, has become the 18th country to sign a pact with the US – a list that includes key allies like Australia, Canada and the UK.

Strengthening defense ties and shielding and guaranteeing the defense sectors of signatories in times of emergency is key facet of SOSA. It will ensure and enhance the interoperability of both countries, India in particular, as Indian Officers are being embedded in the US Special Operations Command in Florida in an effort to improve communication and collaboration between the two sides.

The timings of signing an agreement like SOSA is very important as we already see escalating tension in the Indo-Pacific region and supply chain vulnerabilities triggered by conflicts, especially the Ukraine war, could have significant implications for regional security in South Asia and other regions. So, the US strategy through such agreements could be counterbalancing China’s growing influence by enhancing India’s deterrence capabilities against threats from its neighbors.

Although defense connections between India and the US are evolving for the last several years, SOSA signifies a step forward in a comprehensive strategic and defense partnership (in particular) to increase supply chain resilience. Through this agreement, India and the United States aim at guaranteeing continuity of defense technology transfer without any supply chain interruption. In this context, the US will apply its Defense Priorities and Allocation System (DPAS) with India instituting a code of conduct to facilitate defense cooperation.

Although non-binding, SOSA has so far been concluded with 18 nations, but India’s inclusion in the list indicates that the United States wants to improve defense ties with India to counterbalance its rivals Russia and China in the region. The reason is that this arrangement will facilitate closer military cooperation – enabling joint exercises, enhanced interoperability among armed forces and access to cutting-edge defense technology to India.

On the other hand, SOSA is raising a red flag for Pakistan as well, as it signals a deepening US-India defense partnership. This development can be described as a geopolitical shift given the fact that India is gaining access to US defense suppliers and technologies which could significantly enhance its military capabilities. At the same time, Pakistan is turning to China to bolster its defense capabilities.

SOSA signifies a step forward in a comprehensive strategic and defense partnership (in particular) to increase supply chain resilience.

In the midst this, SOSA could alter the whole equation, particularly in areas like cyberwarfare, aerospace and artificial intelligence. One must remember that the US has recently significantly increased the sale of military hardware and technologies to India under mutual purchase agreement as a step towards deepening defense cooperation.

Some other agreements like RDP, which is still under consideration, are designed to subsidize defense cooperation by eradicating trade restrictions, streamlining the process of procurement, and granting reciprocal market access. The probable signing of the RDP agreement means that Indian defense products after qualifying the requirement of the US Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement (DFARS) would be considered as indigenous under the Buy American Act and could enjoy preferential access to the US defense system contracts. This development will significantly boost India’s economy and defense sector, thereby making it more competitive and better integrated into the global supply chain.

Meanwhile, China is also viewing Indo-US defense partnership through strategic and geopolitical lens. Beijing sees these measures as part of broader a US strategy to contain its influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The reason is simple: SOSA particularly focuses on defense supplies and fits within larger strategic framework of aiming at enhancing a network of US allies’ capabilities to counterbalance China’s influence.

Furthermore, the prospects of India entering into an RDP agreement with the US could enhance the border disputes and security tension on Sino-Indian border. China may view it as India’s strategy to seek external support against China in border disputes, thus enhancing the strategic posture in the region. Moreover, China is also concerned that closer Indo-US ties may lead to increased collaboration in multilateral forum like QUAD, thus posing a threat to China’s strategic interests in the region.

As a diplomatic maneuvering, China is likely to strengthen its diplomatic ties with Pakistan, Russia and Iran, which could lead to changing security dynamics and geopolitical balance of power in the region. Besides, the RDP agreement could have wider repercussion on China’s defense industry.

Interestingly, India’s reliance on its traditional Russian defense system would be reduced after signing SOSA and other defense agreements with the US, which can transform the entire regional security landscape while posing new challenges.

In short, the signing of SOSA between the US and India has with far-reaching implications for regional security, as the potential for an RDP agreement is also there.

The US-India defense partnership will present significant challenges for Pakistan and China. It creates apprehensions regarding military asymmetry in the region and an evolving balance of power in South Asia. In the years ahead, the impact of these developments on the strategic landscape in this contested region will become obvious.