The US-India defense partnership has been evolving steadily, and signing two transformational deals in August 2024 is a major milestone in this trajectory. The signing of the Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA) and other defense agreements during Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to the United States marks a pivotal moment in Indo-US relations, solidifying India’s position as a key defense partner.

These agreements – SOSA [a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Liaison Officers] and the ongoing discussions around the Reciprocal Defense Procurement (RDP) agreement – represent a significant deepening of military, strategic, and industrial cooperation between the two nations.

For this purpose, SOSA aims at fortifying the defense supply chain during emergencies by expediting the transfer of defense-related goods and services between the two countries. India is becoming the 18th country to enter into such an agreement with the US, joining prominent allies like Australia, Canada, and the UK.

SOSA functions are based on mutual trust, ensuring that both defense sectors can rely on each other during a crisis. At the same time, it also designed to improve communication and collaboration between the two countries by allowing Indian Officers to be embedded in the US military command centers, such as the US special operations command in Florida. The timing of this agreement is notable, occurring during a period of rising tensions across the Indo-Pacific and amid supply chain vulnerabilities exacerbated by global conflicts.

The deepening US-India defense partnership poses strategic challenges for Pakistan and China.

Earlier, India’s designation as a major Defense Partner (MDP) in 2016 laid the groundwork for deepened defense ties, and SOSA acts as a vehicle to operationalize that status. However, the more immediate rationale lies in bolstering supply chain resilience. This arrangement enables India and the US to request prioritized delivery of critical defense resources, ensuring continuity during times of crisis or supply chain disruptions.

In this connection, the US will implement its Defense Priorities and Allocations System (DPAS), while India will establish a Code of Conduct, facilitating cooperation. Although non-binding, SOSAs have been signed with 18 countries, marking India’s entry into this exclusive defense network. This non-binding nature provides flexibility but also signals the US’s intent to deepen defense ties with India. Hence, this priority status is particularly relevant in times of global supply chain disruptions, as seen in the recent conflicts and rising tensions worldwide.

On the other hand, SOSA raises red flags for Pakistan as it signals a deepening US-India defense partnership, particularly when viewed alongside India’s growing military capabilities. This move potentially widens the military asymmetry between India and Pakistan, with India gaining access to US defense suppliers and technologies that could significantly enhance its capabilities. Pakistan, on the other hand, has traditionally relied on its close defense relationship with China to balance India’s military power, but India’s closer ties with the US could alter the equation, particularly in areas such as cyber warfare, aerospace, and artificial intelligence.

Moreover, the US and India are also in the process of signing an RDP agreement which could impact regional stability in South Asia. The RDP agreements promote defense cooperation by removing trade barriers, streamlining procurement, and offering reciprocal market access. The potential signing of an RDP agreement between India and the US would further exacerbate regional state’s concerns, as it ensures that signatories do not discriminate against each other’s defense suppliers in procurement processes.

If India becomes a qualifying country under the US Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement (DEFARS), Indian defense products would be treated as domestic under the US Buy American Act, granting them preferential access to US defense contracts. This will significantly enhance India’s economy, and defense industry, making it more competitive and integrated into the global supply chain, while Pakistan struggles to maintain parity.

The US pivot towards India, coupled with initiatives such as QUAD and the Strategic Trade Dialogue (STD), represents a coordinated effort to counter China’s growing assertiveness.

China, which views the Indo-US defense partnership with growing suspicion, is likely to see the SOSA as part of a broader US strategy to contain its influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The US pivot towards India, coupled with initiatives such as QUAD and the Strategic Trade Dialogue (STD), represents a coordinated effort to counter China’s growing assertiveness, particularly in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.  Hence, SOSA, while focused on defense supplies, fits into this larger strategic framework aimed at creating a network of US allies capable of deterring China’s influence.

Moreover, the prospect of India signing an RDP agreement with the US presents a significant challenge for China. The RDP would give Indian companies unprecedented access to US defense contracts and technologies, potentially accelerating India’s military modernization. This could shift the balance of power in the Indian Ocean region, where China has sought to establish a foothold through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).  A more militarily capable India, backed by US technology, could pose a threat to China’s strategic interests in these regions.

Moreover, the RDP agreement could have wider ramifications for China’s defense industry. As India’s defense sector becomes more integrated with the US, it may wean itself from its traditional reliance on Russian defense systems, which have long been a concern for China. This shift could alter the regional security dynamics.

In short, the signing of SOSA between India and the United States is a significant milestone in their defense relationship, with broad implications for regional security. As India and the US continue to strengthen their defense ties, the possibility of an RDP agreement looms large, offering potential economic and military advantages to both nations.

However, the deepening US-India defense partnership poses strategic challenges for Pakistan and China, raising concerns over regional military asymmetry and the shifting balance of power in South Asia. The coming years will reveal how these developments reshape the strategic landscape in this increasingly contested region.