Donald Trump is coming into power for four years after a hiatus of four years. His presidency, unrestricted by the burden of a second consecutive term, will likely be more consequential than his first 2016-20 term. Countries across the world are thus readying themselves for shocks and surprises. For some, Trump’s win may be a good development but many are apprehensive that his unpredictability is a recipe for more worldwide chaos. He is generally seen as his own man. He doesn’t seem to have much appetite for the cumbersome institutional statecraft. To him his instincts are more relevant and dependable.

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It was on his watch that the US reached out to the Taliban leading to the Doha Agreement on February 29, 2020. The deal was upbraided by all and sundry, including the then Kabul regime, and termed as US capitulation to terrorists. Trump was clear. He wanted the US troops out of Afghanistan; he was not interested in the elusive goal of nation-building. Hence, he did not even hesitate to enter into an agreement with the Taliban militia and abandoning Afghanistan to its own destiny. The agreement literally treated the Taliban as the incoming government in Kabul as it also sought guarantees from the Taliban that Afghanistan would not become a safe haven for terrorists.

Trump was clear. He wanted the US troops out of Afghanistan; he was not interested in the elusive goal of nation-building. Hence, he did not even hesitate to enter into an agreement with the Taliban.

Trump lost the presidential election in November 2020. It was anyone’s guess whether his successor would uphold or jettison the Doha deal. Many countries, including India, tried to convince Biden against a hasty withdrawal of NATO troops. They contended that withdrawing troops from Afghanistan without the Taliban entering into a meaningful dialogue with the Kabul regime about the future of Afghanistan was a dangerous proposition as that would pull the country back into an interminable gory civil war. However, Biden remained unimpressed.

As a matter of fact, even as vice president in the Obama administration, Biden had opposed to sending more troops to Afghanistan which the Pentagon had reckoned was necessary to inflict a decisive defeat on the Taliban. All military calculations turned out to be wrong. No amount of “surge” could defeat the Taliban. Biden, too, was averse to embroiling the US in an open-ended commitment to nation-building in Afghanistan. Now as president, he couldn’t be expected to commit the US to this quixotic undertaking. Accordingly, it was decided to bring all the US troop in Afghanistan back home by the end of August 2021.

It is another story how chaotic the withdrawal was. At the end, it was all done in haste and haphazardly. So much so that the US had to leave behind state- of-the-art military equipment worth over $6 billion. In his election campaign, Trump repeatedly lambasted the Biden administration for its incompetence as the withdrawal process resulted in the killing of 13 US service members, wounding another 45, and killed more than 170 Afghan civilians, when the last US military aircraft left Afghanistan on 30 August.

As a matter of fact, even as vice president in the Obama administration, Biden had opposed to sending more troops to Afghanistan.

Trump might have handled things differently. Rather than pushing the Taliban to the wall by freezing Afghanistan’s assets close to $9billion and setting ill-advised preconditions for recognizing their government (as contained in United Nations Security Council Resolution 2593 of August 30, 2021 adopted under Indian presidency of UNSC), he might have preferred to engage with them not for nation-building but to counter China’s growing influence in this strategically important region.

Trump may still surprise the world as he did in his first term by reaching out to Kim Jong-un of North Korea. Besides China, we may also see tension ramping up with Iran, especially on its nuclear program and its proxies in the Middle East. US recognition of the Taliban government cannot be ruled out, for the American diplomatic presence in Kabul may be considered as vital to also build pressure on Iran. Frankly speaking, tensions in this part of the world will serve US interests well not only in the context of mounting pressure on the Iranian regime from within but also for making full realization of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) ever more difficult.

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Trump and Modi will have to adjust each other tactically while maintaining broad convergence in India-US strategic objectives. And should President Putin of Russia oblige Trump on Ukraine, India will have more space to conduct its relations with Russia without facing the menace of US sanctions under the Countering of American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CATSA). We may see Russia and India expediting work on the International North South Transport Corridor in the next four years. Interesting will be to see whether or not Trump is able to create some distance between Beijing and Moscow.

Trump and Modi will have to adjust each other tactically while maintaining broad convergence in India-US strategic objectives.

From its strategic perspective, India is rightly coaxing the Taliban government to reduce its transit trade dependence on Pakistan by utilizing the Chabahar port. An Indian delegation was in Kabul recently, and, according to Indian media reports, the Taliban government was not only receptive to this suggestion but also impressed upon India to resume its development activities and invest in Afghanistan. Trump may find the Chabahar port somewhat at odds with his objectives vis-à-vis Iran. However, he may look the other way to keep China and Pakistan under pressure. A former president of Ghana, Kwame Nkrumah, defined diplomacy as “the art of accepting the feasible in order to advance the desirable”.

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India and US may decide to establish full diplomatic relations with Kabul as has been done by China and the UAE this year. Shouldn’t Pakistan also be revisiting its by and large ineffective Afghanistan policy? Islamabad could have done far better after Kabul fell to the Taliban on August 15, 2021. Pakistan was instrumental in bringing the US and the Taliban to the negotiating table in Doha. However, Islamabad squandered a good opportunity to build on that and keep the Taliban on its side. No sooner had the ink of the Doha Agreement dried than Pakistan-Afghanistan relations became adversarial. It is high time to think of rehabilitation.

To begin with, Islamabad must consider establishing full diplomatic relations with Kabul. And sooner the better. Some would argue why should this be done unilaterally, that is, without Kabul accommodating Pakistan’s concerns on terrorism, especially vis-à-vis the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)? This is a valid point. However, those who understand the Kabul mindset would not press on this. Islamabad may be more successful in winning over Kabul by engaging them in a sustained manner rather than appearing to be condescending and resorting to coercive measures. This would never deliver results. To the contrary, continued estrangement would further compound issues between the two countries, making it harder to accommodate each other.

On its part, Kabul must also understand that by riding roughshod over Pakistan’s legitimate concerns it is not helping the situation in any manner. Our destinies are intertwined. The two countries need each other to get to grips with multiple internal and external challenges. Islamabad may take the first step to put this important relationship on a positive trajectory in their mutual interest.