A couple of months ago, India and Pakistan were preparing for yet another war. The four-day conflict appeared to be the continuation of longstanding geo-political rivalry between the two, suggesting that peace, in the form of formal reconciliation, is not just elusive but perhaps strategically undesirable for both states.

The peace between India and Pakistan will remain an elusive dream as long as this territorial dispute endures.

South Asia stands as a region trapped in a cobweb of instability and swelling complexity of the crises, that disrupts regional peace and balance of power.  Despite the tidal waves of globalization altering the inter-state relations, Indo-Pakistan hostility remains remarkably unyielding. The military standoff between the two in May 2025 is a testament to the claim that the mutual adversity is seemingly impervious to the currents of change.

Almost eight decades marked by recurrent conflict and conflagration, both states have engaged in multiple wars with varying levels of intensity but each reinforcing a cycle of mistrust, blame game and militarization. In this protracted rivalry, India’s politico-military establishment has often adopted a brittle approach, worsened by the ideological inflexibility over strategic recalibration and lack of introspection. Over time, both states hardened their posture, rather than confronting the roots of discord that allowed burgeoning of the Kashmir conundrum, the hydro-politics, trust-deficit, arms race and international alliances.

The long-standing Kashmir crisis is the heart of the impasse. The peace between India and Pakistan will remain an elusive dream, as long as this territorial dispute endures. Kashmir has been a strategically valuable patch of land for India and Pakistan, and has served as the casus belli in all major wars and minor clashes between the two.

It continues to shape the political psyche and motivation of both nations, making reconciliation nearly impossible. Nuclear deterrence has worked to prevent a war at a strategic level but it has not been able to preclude low-intensity conflicts and territorial breaches by India. Just as the May 2025 standoff brought both states at the brink of full-scale war, any similar incident could spark another crisis in future, and the cycle will continue.

A détente between India and Pakistan would hurt the hegemonic designs of a Hindutva-led India. Anti-Pakistan narrative, or “Pakophobia”, fuels Hindutva and provides buoyancy to Indian aspiration of ascending to the throne of ‘regional watchdog’ and/or ‘net security provider’.

Anti-Pakistan narrative fuels Hindutva and supports India’s hegemonic ambitions.

India’s participation in regional organizations such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Program (SASEC), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), should not be misconstrued as its commitment to regional peace and stability.

Rather, as a reflection of its ambitions to ‘lead’ South Asia and advance its own geo-political and economic objectives. India has been altering its defense and foreign policy as per its objectives, posing pervasive threat to South Asian peace.  Lasting peace with Pakistan will halt the pace of its militarization and nuclearization, defeating the dreams of “Akhand Bharat” or “Greater India”.

Levels of peace and stability in South Asia have always been defined by great power competition, first by U.S-U.S.S.R. and now by U.S-China. Economic and military behemoths, United States and China, can be seen leveraging their military and economic partnerships with India and Pakistan, respectively, to project their influence and protect their interests in the South Asia.

In such scenario, India and Pakistan risk morphing into proxies in a broader great power rivalry, fighting wars for their patrons. On one hand, China-Pakistan’s military partnership has matured into a robust alliance, characterized by joint military exercises, arms production and transfer, and growing operational interoperability. Today, China stands as Pakistan’s chief defense partner, and the course of this cooperation hints a stronger strategic embrace in forthcoming years.

On the other hand, U.S. has bolstered its defense and strategic ties with the India significantly. Over the past two decades, both countries have signed landmark agreements i.e., COMCASA, BECA, LEMOA, coupled with frequent joint exercises and other collaborative efforts i.e., QUAD, that indicate American efforts to expand its influence in and eclipse Beijing’s in the Indo-Pacific region. A détente between India and Pakistan will greatly undercut U.S. and China’s ambitions and hurt them politically and fiscally.

Great power competition shapes the security dynamics of South Asia.

A permanent peace treaty between India and Pakistan would require both parties to address and compromise on lingering issues, particularly Kashmir, that form the bedrock of their political legitimacy, fuels domestic ideological unity, external alliances and most importantly, military relevance. Signing détente would mean abandoning political and military objectives, since absence of peace justifies bloated defense budgets, and provides a convenient distraction from internal challenges. In short, hostility is politically useful for both states and their patrons. As long as these incentives remain, so will the ghost of war.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.