After many months of negotiations, a three-phased Gaza Ceasefire deal was finally reached between Israel and Hamas on Jan 15, 2025. It has temporarily ended the months-long conflict between Israel and other warring parties. It must also bring relief to the Palestinians who are allowed to return to homes that they may find only in rubble. There have been reports of negotiations between Israel and Hamas but the deal was imminent in this timeframe because of certain overarching factors, both domestic and international.

The ceasefire agreement marks the end of a brutal 15-month conflict, leaving over 46,000 Palestinians dead and countless displaced.

There has been international pressure throughout these fifteen months to stop the war which was not taken into account by Israel who continued unabated with complete impunity. The war crimes that Mr Netanyahu committed led him to a verdict by the International Court of Justice with arrest warrants issued for his apprehension. The UN called to stop the massacre executed by Israel but to no avail.

Israel was continuously supported by the US and its allies albeit with cautions for avoiding human rights violations, but Israel did not lend an ear. In the process, Israel weakened Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iran so less amount of resistance was visible during the last two months. It turned the conflict into a genocide of Palestinians as Israel attacked with impunity. Even on the day of the ceasefire deal, sixty-one Palestinians were killed in different attacks.

On Jan 20, 2025, President-elect Trump is going to take over from Mr Biden. For both this deal is momentous. President Biden, having supported Israel throughout the conflict and still losing candidacy for the Presidential elections can leave the office with much satisfied conscience that he could secure a ceasefire in Gaza. He will always boast about this achievement.

On the other hand, President-elect Trump vowed that all hostages should be released before he assumes office else all hell would break loose. He can now take over as a strong President who means what he says and accomplishes what he claims. The US factor in sealing the deal on Jan 15 seems to be the most predominant.

Israel has been engaged on multiple fronts during the last fifteen months. A single country couldn’t have sustained itself on all these fronts for these many months had it not been supported by powerful allies like the US, UK, and others. However, owing to human rights violations committed by Israel the support of many countries including that of the UK dwindled. So Mr Netanyahu’s war plans were costing heavily not only for Israel but also for the closest ally US. Also, Mr Netanyahu faced critical opposition at home since despite all his efforts he could not bring the hostages back.

President-elect Trump emphasized hostage release as a key factor, adding urgency to the deal.

Earlier last year, he was advised by his aides not to expand the war campaign as they had achieved stated objectives. However, he continued and devastated Gaza. Mr Netanyahu wanted to garner domestic support through this carnage which would prolong his tenure as Prime Minister. However, failure to have hostages released has cost him internal pressure which is detrimental to his political career as corruption cases against him are pending in Israeli courts and are to begin proceedings in a few months.

There has also been war fatigue on Israel due to multiple front fights over the last fifteen months. The death toll of Israeli soldiers has also risen over four hundred which has stirred furore among the Israeli public. Scores of Israelis were killed during the attack on Oct 7, 2023, hostages in Hamas captivity, deaths of Israeli soldiers during the conflict, and fading domestic support has put tremendous pressure on Mr Netanyahu, catalytic in his agreement to the ceasefire deal.

Hamas was weakened by killing its key leadership, destroying the infrastructure built over decades, and cutting its supply lines most notably via Syria. Other allies of Hamas such as Iran, Hezbollah, and Houthis were all attacked and weakened by Israel who were in a strong position to continue its support for Hamas at par with that of initial times of conflict. With waning support and increasing casualties, it was perhaps also a time ripe to cut a deal with Hamas.

On the Palestinians’ side, the situation has been catastrophic. With more than forty-six thousand Palestinians killed, over a hundred thousand injured, and the majority of 2.6 million displaced this is no less than a Doom’s Day scenario. They are hoping to return to their homes and may find nothing there but rubble.

There is a sheer scarcity of food, medical aid, and other commodities awaiting the return of Palestinians to their native houses. One wonders what have been the achievements and outcomes of this conflict wherein so many precious lives were lost and so much devastation caused. More than that the trauma that has been suffered by the young generation is likely to further intensify the vengeance.

Netanyahu faced internal dissent, waning international support, and rising war fatigue, catalyzing the ceasefire agreement.

Soon after having been elected, Mr Trump had hoped for a ceasefire but only after achieving war objectives. It seems that the ultimate objective was to have hostages released from Hamas’ captivity. If that is the case, then Israel has lost the war because despite employment of all might it could not get the hostages released without a ceasefire deal. One of the stated objectives of Mr. Netanyahu was the destruction of Hamas, which he could not achieve as he negotiated a ceasefire deal with the very same organization.

The fact that resistance movements seldom fade away if they are rooted in the population seems to have been deliberately ignored by the Israeli Prime Minister, maybe to fool the Israeli population. He has intensified the resistance which will be obvious in times to come. Hamas and Palestinians showed a great deal of grit despite the devastation caused by Israel stood fast, faced the calamity, and endured the sorrows of losing families and homes.

For how long this deal will last is anyone’s guess. But the precedent tells us that Israel seldom honors deals and agreements. The recent example is Israel’s 60-day ceasefire deal with Hezbollah which did not refrain it from attacking Lebanon to achieve politico-military objectives.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.