Water scarcity in Pakistan has reached alarming levels, posing a severe threat to its agriculture, economy, and social fabric. Once part of a region admired for its advanced water management, the Indus River Basin now exemplifies how multiple factors, like transboundary disputes, climate change, poor infrastructure, and mismanagement, have combined to produce a deepening crisis.

India’s upstream developments compound Pakistan’s dwindling water availability and heighten mistrust under the Indus Waters Treaty.

The Indus River’s waters, shared by over a billion people in South Asia, have become a source not only of sustenance but of political tension, especially between Pakistan and India. Over the decades, as population pressures mounted and industrial and agricultural demands intensified, per capita water availability fell dramatically. Meanwhile, India’s upstream infrastructure development has strained Pakistan’s water supply and sown deep mistrust.

The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), brokered by the World Bank, was once lauded as a successful model of conflict resolution. It allocated three eastern rivers largely to India and three western rivers to Pakistan, with certain clauses allowing limited usage by each country in the other’s allocated rivers.

Although the treaty survived wars and diplomatic standoffs, its spirit of cooperation has eroded as India’s construction of run-of-river hydropower projects on the western rivers has led Pakistan to accuse its neighbor of using water as a coercive instrument.

These projects, sometimes constructed without timely notification to Pakistan, raise fears that India could control water flows. Such apprehensions are not only legalistic debates over treaty terms but also existential worries about Pakistan’s primary water source.

Climate change amplifies these concerns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that shifting weather patterns, erratic monsoons, glacial melt, and more frequent extreme weather events will disrupt river flows in the Indus Basin.

Climate change intensifies erratic river flows, causing both severe floods and crippling droughts.

In the near term, faster-melting glaciers may temporarily boost water supply, but reduced glacial mass will diminish groundwater recharge and intensify shortages over the long run. Increased rainfall variability, poorly maintained infrastructure, and insufficient storage capacity make Pakistan more vulnerable to floods and droughts.

The 2010 floods were catastrophic, and projections suggest extreme events will become more frequent and severe. Such volatility complicates the delicate balance of seasonal flows that Pakistani agriculture depends on, heightening the risks to food security.

Pakistan’s domestic challenges exacerbate these external pressures. Outdated irrigation systems, high seepage losses, and poor canal maintenance waste substantial volumes of precious water. With limited storage capacity, large amounts of floodwater simply escape into the sea every wet season.

Siltation in reservoirs reduces their capacity, and weak governance prevents the efficient use of scarce resources. While Pakistan’s agricultural economy has historically thrived on the Indus Basin irrigation system, inefficiencies, and infrastructure decay mean the country fails to maximize its existing water. In an era of heightened uncertainty, these shortcomings become more damaging, limiting Pakistan’s ability to adapt.

The interplay between climate stresses and transboundary water disputes can have destabilizing social and economic consequences. The reduction in river flows, whether caused by upstream interventions or climate-driven fluctuations, directly affects agriculture, which employs a large portion of the population and underpins national food security.

When water supplies are interrupted at critical planting times, yields fall, increasing food prices and rural poverty. As groundwater extraction intensifies to compensate for erratic surface flows, resources are depleted, and the specter of future shortages looms larger.

Outdated irrigation and governance failures squander scarce water resources, undermining agricultural output and food security.

Declining agricultural productivity can drive internal migration, as farmers abandon marginal lands and move to urban centers already struggling with overcrowding, strained infrastructure, and limited public services.

These internal pressures feed into longstanding interprovincial tensions within Pakistan over water distribution. Provinces vie for their share, suspicious of each other’s intentions. The inability to forge consensus on major water-storage projects, such as the Kalabagh Dam, illustrates the difficulty of achieving national unity on water management in an environment of scarcity and distrust.

Climate-induced volatility will likely intensify these rifts, as changing flows upset the delicate power balance between upstream and downstream communities.

Societal stresses are further magnified by extreme climatic events. More intense rainfall can quickly overwhelm outdated infrastructure, causing floods that displace millions. Extended droughts, on the other hand, rob entire regions of livelihood, forcing painful migrations that alter demographics and strain social cohesion.

Cities become hubs for climate refugees, intensifying competition for jobs, housing, and services. These pressures can trigger conflicts along ethnic, provincial, or class lines and erode trust in the state’s capacity to govern.

Pakistan’s vulnerability is entwined with regional dynamics. India’s upstream interventions are not the only factor, but they compound an already dire situation. Even as climate science underscores the urgency of cooperative water management, political relations remain fraught. Without timely data-sharing, transparent communication, and a renewed commitment to the IWT, tensions can escalate, undermining stability in a fragile region.

Interprovincial rivalries within Pakistan over water rights exacerbate tensions and hamper unified solutions.

To address the crisis, Pakistan must invest in modernizing its water infrastructure, improving irrigation efficiency, expanding storage capacity, and managing groundwater sustainably. It must also enhance climate resilience through better forecasting, flood control, and drought mitigation measures.

More inclusive governance, rooted in trust and transparency, could help avert interprovincial conflict. International mediation, scientific cooperation, and perhaps even revisiting the IWT’s operational details—if pursued with goodwill—could rebuild confidence between India and Pakistan.

Ultimately, the Indus River Basin’s water woes are not merely about flows and treaties but about the future of a populous, climate-vulnerable region. Without transformative action, Pakistan faces a dangerously uncertain water future, with dire economic and social implications.

The challenge lies not only in negotiating with upstream neighbors but also in contending with the formidable forces of climate change and internal mismanagement. In this rapidly evolving reality, securing water is not just about survival; it is about building peace, prosperity, and resilience for generations to come.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.