Long faces, swollen eyes, and wounded confidence characterize the European portrait when delving into today’s bruised trans-Atlantic politics. More than two dozen anxious European leaders convened in the Ukrainian capital on Monday to express their solidarity with Kyiv as it marks the completion of its three-year war against Russia. They assured the Ukrainian president of their unwavering support despite the perceived betrayal by the US. However, there is a palpable gloom regarding the shifting political landscape.

Three years ago, when Russian bombers first targeted Ukraine, strong voices emerged against the aggression, warning of the potential for World War III, which could devastate economies already struggling in the aftermath of COVID-19. Under US leadership, Europeans demonstrated solidarity with Kyiv and opened their homes to millions of Ukrainian immigrants, showcasing their commitment to the Ukrainian cause. Almost all nations pledged military support to Ukraine, providing arms, ammunition, training, and reinforcements.

It was anticipated that the sanctions imposed on Russia would weaken its economy and isolate it globally, compelling it to withdraw its troops from Ukraine and refrain from future aggression

NATO countries hoped Russia would be subdued and defeated within months by supplying weapons and defense resources. It was anticipated that the sanctions imposed on Russia would weaken its economy and isolate it globally, compelling it to withdraw its troops from Ukraine and refrain from future aggression. Consequently, countries invested heavily in Ukraine, supplying funds, forces, and ammunition. Yet, the war did not cease.

Countries near Moscow began reassessing their defense contracts and procuring armaments from Russia. They were concerned that the Russian military was not achieving the gains touted by Putin and that Russian weaponry could not compete with European nations’ advanced technological warfare capabilities. When shipments of American and European weapons reached Kyiv, it became increasingly clear that Russia was likely to lose the conflict. However, neither was Russia defeated nor did it lose its arms customers.

Defense analyst in Kyiv Sergei Vocoder said, “Ukraine failed to establish its front line on the border with Russia. The Russian front was surrounded by tanks and troops—a strategy Zelensky could hardly assess. He managed the war like an amateur leader, focusing solely on aid rather than the frontline.”

Initially, Ukrainian forces were well-positioned near the front, receiving external equipment and training. However, despite military support and financial aid from European nations, the war has dragged on, and Ukraine has yet to declare victory as its allies had hoped.

Instead, a political earthquake recently shook Ukraine’s existence, leaving European countries shocked and uncertain about maintaining their identity and unity in these challenging circumstances. The emergence of Trump in American politics sent shockwaves across the continent. Europe, already embroiled in internal disputes, was further jolted by new American policies.

On one front, Europe grappled with economic distress; on another, the rise of right-wing politics began to dismantle liberal institutions. Additionally, the withdrawal of American support dealt a significant blow to its stability. European leaders have deliberated in Kyiv, Paris, and Berlin about whether to support America’s policies, accept Russia’s aggression, or envision a new Europe independent of the US. There is no quick-fix solution to the problem.

Upon taking office in January, President Donald Trump launched aggressive policies affecting the East and West, blurring the lines between allies and adversaries

Upon taking office in January, President Donald Trump launched aggressive policies affecting the East and West, blurring the lines between allies and adversaries. Long-standing allies found themselves becoming the first targets of his administration. When he announced the acquisition of Canada and Greenland, European allies were left questioning their status as partners of the world’s most prosperous republic or mere clients of a large corporation under a prominent businessman’s scrutiny.

As the Ukraine war became a priority, it unfolded under the terms dictated by two superpowers, much to the dismay of the victimized nation that should have been central to the dialogue. Ukraine was still grappling with the prospect of ending the war when a summit with the Russian president was announced. Although European leaders should have welcomed Trump’s efforts to resolve the conflict, they were troubled by his approach, which placed immense pressure on Zelensky, who ultimately rejected the deal proposed by Trump.

Trump is dismantling international institutions established post-World War II while collaborating with global dictators to undermine the foundations of democracy

A nation under attack, with its settlements devastated and its people displaced, found its leader, Vladimir Zelensky, fighting on the front lines for three long years, labeled a dictator. This prompted European leaders to convene an emergency meeting to strategize on persuading Trump or leading the Union without him. Some Western commentators have even likened the US president to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, suggesting he is dismantling international institutions established post-World War II while collaborating with global dictators to undermine the foundations of democracy.

Western European nations grew increasingly concerned upon hearing that the US was halting aid to Ukraine. Following the first emergency meeting, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated he was prepared to send additional military assistance to Ukraine. Still, without US backing, it would be challenging to protect Ukraine from Russian aggression.

The Cold War-like tension between Ukraine and the US has intensified. Meanwhile, European leaders and their allies have been further unsettled by Trump’s commitment to equalizing tax policies in trade transactions. From Australia to Asia, Africa to the Arab world, leaders are scrambling to appease Trump, whose “America first” mantra resonates internally.

Approximately 20,000 children have been abducted from Russian-occupied territories and held in distant camps. Civilian deaths are estimated at 42,000, with over 200,000 buildings destroyed

The past three years have been devastating for Ukraine, which has lost 10 percent of its territory in addition to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. According to the United Nations, 11 million Ukrainians have fled, many becoming refugees abroad. Reports indicate that approximately 20,000 children have been abducted from Russian-occupied territories and held in distant camps. Civilian deaths are estimated at 42,000, with over 200,000 buildings destroyed. One estimate placed the total economic loss at $152 billion, with war-torn areas lacking essential services during the harsh winter, necessitating substantial funds for infrastructure restoration.

On the military front, Kyiv has reported 45,000 soldiers killed, over 350,000 wounded, and tens of thousands missing, many believed to have been abducted by Moscow. Information regarding Russian casualties is complex to ascertain, but some news agencies report that approximately 90,000 Russian soldiers have died, while Ukraine claims the number is as high as 850,000. Moscow, as usual, disputes these figures.

Russia has incurred costs of $200 billion, factoring in the effects of economic sanctions and revenue from its exports. Despite these financial sanctions, India and China have buoyed the Russian economy by purchasing oil, gas, and other essential commodities.

Zelensky understands that winning this war is increasingly challenging without a key ally like the US distancing itself. Trump appears to be moving closer to Putin, who, in turn, is aligning with China and leading commentators to speculate about forming a G3 to dominate global affairs. Simultaneously, over 150 countries reliant on American aid and support seek survival in a world without Donald Trump.

The model of liberal democracy, once exported to developing nations for decades, is now declining

While the threat of a third world war seems to have receded, the rise of right-wing ideologies poses a significant challenge to liberal democracy. The model of liberal democracy, once exported to developing nations for decades, is now declining. From the Middle East to Africa, chaos and crises have erupted in regions rich in minerals, oil, and natural resources that liberal countries have historically focused on. Under Trump, the United States appears intent on reserving all rights to these resources.

The ethnic cleansing of 2.5 million citizens and the transformation of Gaza into a tourist destination, along with inciting factions in the D R Congo to vie for control over cobalt reserves or trading minerals worth $500 billion in exchange for ending the war in Ukraine, are indicative of a new American policy. We must await further executive orders from the US President as he navigates this complex geopolitical landscape.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.