The Fall of Bashar Al Assad is shocking even for the Syrians, who, three weeks ago, would say no if asked whether Assad was leaving power. The US, Israel, and Turkiye are considered winners in the episode, while Iran and Russia have lost the influence battle. Concurrently, it is certainly a setback to China, which, although not involved in the Syrian crisis militarily, lent, along with Russia, full support to Assad in the UN Security Council.

The fall of Assad and near decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah marks a major setback for Iran’s resistance axis strategy.

Assad’s departure from the scene is a setback to Iran, which fought along with the Assad forces to counter the anti-Assad groups. According to Western estimates, Iran lost 30 billion dollars and over 7000 IRGC personnel during the 13-year war, including some of its highly decorated generals. Geographically, Iran has lost the land corridor through Syria to Israel and Lebanon.

As if waiting for Assad’s departure, Israel has taken the opportunity to occupy the buffer zone in the Golan Heights apart from destroying Syrian military assets with over 800 attacks in a matter of two weeks, and those attacks are continuing.

The impunity with which Israel is busy destroying Syrian military installations and hardware without protest from the new rulers, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Abu Mohammed Al Jolani’s organization Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), has given rise to suspicions about whether the entire drama was choreographed by Israel-US duo?

There are many other questions regarding Mr Jolani’s credentials and those of his organization (HTS). Being a convict as a former member of Al-Qaeda, what has transformed him to make politically correct noises that sound music to the American and Israeli ears? It is also intriguing that US analysts continue to doubt the HTS’s takeover of Damascus, but its diplomats are devising ways for future interaction. US State Department further said that it is “dropping a $10m reward for the arrest of Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa”.

Israel’s military dominance in Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon faces potential pushback from Iran’s strategic alliances with Russia and China.

Coincidently, the Assad regime fell soon after the killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership by Israel. In the entire milieu, there was apprehension of a full-fledged Iran-Israel war as already the two countries had exchanged missiles in the past few months.

However, the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on 31st July this year, a few hours after the swearing-in ceremony of President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, was embarrassing for Iran.

The series of murderous attacks on other Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, including Hassan Nasrullah, evidently proved Israel’s resolute policy and prowess not only to eliminate the top leadership of the Hamas and Hezbollah but also damage Iran’s military bases and nuclear research centre at Parchin.

Near decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah has indeed been unsettling for Iran as the two organizations were Iran’s strategic partners. Whether it is a defeat for the Iranian strategy in the Middle East, especially in countering Israel, or if Iran would bounce back after counting its losses and future options.

Iran’s nuclear progress could shift regional power dynamics, risking a Middle Eastern nuclear domino effect.

Iran’s decision to reopen its embassy in Damascus demonstrates its capacity and resilience to withstand American and Israeli pressure. The following factors supportive of Iran’s future strategy deserve attention:

First, Israeli military successes cannot last longer unless they garner regional support, primarily from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Oman, and Jordan. As a matter of priority, the lifting of severe economic sanctions against Syria, facing for over a decade, would be urgently required.

The question is whether a former terrorist organization (HTS) would receive the support of the West to trounce Iran. If so, the defeated Hamas and Hezbollah are most likely to bounce back with more vengeance as now they have more valid reasons to harm Israel, given the genocide perpetrated by the Zionist state against the Palestinians and Lebanese nationals.

Iran would not lag in supporting the renewed hostilities between the Palestinians and Israel. Israeli intransigence will promote more tribalism in the Arab world. The chances of unrest on Arab streets are more ominous than ever before.

Second, Iran has learnt to live with sanctions since 1979. Israeli successes in Gaza, Lebanon, or Syria cannot determine its future successes against Iran, as the latter has a much better capacity to withstand Israel’s military pressures. Iran is in a position to choke the Strait of Hormoz, from where the world’s thirty percent (20 million barrels a day) oil is traded or transited.

Third, Iran is not alone in the extended region. China and Russia are strategic partners who have stood by Iran. Iran’s defence capabilities have been boosted with these powers’ cooperation. Therefore, Israel’s use of the military option is likely to receive a severe response from Iran.

Fourth, Iran has already made it clear that it will not succumb to pressure from the US or the West. Iran may go nuclear if pushed to the corner as the country has almost acquired the capability to weaponize its nuclear programme. Iran has already hinted about its successes in the nuclear field. Former foreign minister Kamal Kharrazi told Aljazeera in July 2022 that Iran was “capable of making a nuclear weapon, but a decision whether to do so has not yet been made”.

In his article in the Foreign Affairs of 2nd December 2024, Vice President and former foreign minister Jawad Zarif said:  “the number of centrifuges in Iran has increased dramatically since 2018—when U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal—and enrichment levels have skyrocketed from 3.5 percent to over 60 percent”. Mr. Zarif has blamed the US and the West for Iran’s defiance.

He has also warned that “Trump, who will take office again in January, and Washington’s partners in Europe have themselves to blame for Iran’s continued nuclear progress”. By “nuclear Progress” does he mean to produce electricity or a nuclear bomb? The message from Jawad Zarif is loud and clear.

Fifth, if Iran becomes a nuclear weapon state, it will create a domino effect in the Middle East and elsewhere; Saudi Arabia, Egypt and UAE will be next in line to adopt the nuclear route. Therefore, the US and West’s rhetoric of applying a strict non-proliferation regime on Iran would be defeated.

Dialogue is crucial, as Iran signals willingness for partnership amid rising tensions and potential nuclear escalation.

President Trump and his administration will have to think hard before adopting a tough stance toward Iran. Last week, Republican Senator Ted Cruz talked about “regime change” in Iran as soon as President Trump takes office.

Such rhetoric will push Iran further to adopt the nuclear route and create more challenges in the already volatile Middle East.  A durable peace through dialogue is urgently needed. Jawad Zarif’s offer to become a “willing partner” is on the table and deserves serious consideration.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.