The return of Donald Trump as President of the United States of America is a tectonic change with global implications.  In what is probably the greatest political comeback in recent history, Trump overcame obstacles, legal cases, assassination attempts and massive malign campaign of trial by allegation in the American media to decisively win the November 5 presidential election.

He will probably be the first American president since John F Kennedy who is not a representative of the American security establishment or “Deep State”.  He will, therefore, not follow the traditional Washington playbook on foreign policy.  To understand the implications of the Trump victory, it is important to know where Trump is coming from? He is basically a businessman, a deal maker whose most famous book is the “Art of the Deal”.  He is not a cold warrior and it would not be surprising if he will try to reverse the expansion of NATO and also probably retreat on the ambitious and aggressive over extended ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy’ which involves cobbling alliances like QUAID and AUKUS.

He will probably be the first American president since John F Kennedy who is not a representative of the American security establishment or “Deep State”. 

Trump is not an ideologue, unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden, who tried to frame a new cold war on an ideological premise of “democracy vs autocracy”. And he will not be militaristic in his vision of foreign policy which focuses on a more economy-centric businesslike approach based on his “American First” worldview. And he will not be the one to start wars or foment fighting in Asia and Europe or provoke unnecessary conflicts or confrontation.

So, perhaps, after a quarter of a century of internecine warfare, the world will be calmer, stable and perhaps even more peaceful, for starters, under a Trump Administration. The top three foreign policy priorities of the Trump administration would be ending the war in Ukraine, peace in the Middle East and coping with the competition with China.

What can Pakistan expect from the Trump administration? During the previous Trump administration, Pakistan-American relations were quite good and Pakistan got excellent vibes from his interaction with the Pakistani leadership. Soon after his election in 2016, on 30 November 2016, before his inauguration as president, Trump had a conversation with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif where he termed Pakistan as a ‘fantastic country, a fantastic place of fantastic people’. He even described Sharif as a “terrific guy” and he labeled Pakistan in that telephonic conversation as a “country which is amazing with tremendous opportunities and Pakistanis are one of the most intelligent people”, adding they are “exceptional people”.

Then on July 22, 2019, Trump received Prime Minister Imran Khan at the White House.  He praised Imran Khan and spoke with exuberance about US relations and Pakistan.  He even took Khan on a personally guided tour of the White House residence with the First Lady proudly posing for a selfie with the Pakistan prime minister. More importantly for Pakistan’s national security interests, during that visit of Khan to the United States, Trump publicly offered, saying that “if I can help, I would love to be a mediator on Kashmir”. It also means that he was the first American President since President Clinton’s reference to Kashmir as a ‘nuclear flash point’ in 1993, who recognized Kashmir as a dispute to be resolved between Pakistan and India.

Pakistan can look forward to engage with the United States under the Trump administration which is an opportunity for a ‘reset’ in Pakistan-American relations.

However, Trump can also be erratic as before that on January 1, 2018, he tweeted about Pakistan, saying that “the United States has foolishly gave Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars during the past 15 years” and he accused Pakistan of “lies and deceit”, adding that Pakistan provides “safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan”.

Pakistan can look forward to engage with the United States under the Trump administration which is an opportunity for a ‘reset’ in Pakistan-American relations.  For too long, Washington has viewed Pakistan through the prism of geopolitics, either the Afghan war or relations with India or Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China. Pakistan is located in a region which is vital for US interests, with relationships with countries key to American strategic interests, notably, China, Iran and India. So, this region will remain pivotal to US interests, and so will Pakistan, being the only Muslim nuclear power playing a proactive role.

Firstly, Islamabad needs to accept a new reality that the Pakistani diaspora is now a factor in Pakistan’s emerging relations with the US, which can and will influence Washington’s perspective on the country, including domestic politics. The Pakistani diaspora views on Pakistan domestic politics, today are at variance with those of the government and the establishment, especially on the issue of Khan. This should not diminish or undermine the role of the diaspora as a significant factor, or even as a force multiplier in influencing policy in Washington and promoting Pakistan-America bilateral ties in different areas, particularly economy, trade, investment and education.

Secondly, Pakistan’s officialdom also needs to focus on a robust, proactive high gravitas engagement with Washington that include promoting interests of the Pakistan state and the people, not any person, party or a regime alone.  The areas of engagement can include trade, technology, investment, regional economic connectivity, cooperation in counter terrorism and Pakistan’s important role as a “Muslim Middle Power”, located in one of the most strategic parts of the world which has a unique possibility to engaging both the East (China) and the West (US) with an experienced track record of confidence, communication and understanding.

Pakistan’s officialdom also needs to focus on a robust, proactive high gravitas engagement with Washington that include promoting interests of the Pakistan state and the people, not any person, party or a regime alone.

Thirdly, Pakistan should also show strategic clarity in engaging with the United States, separating the ‘red lines’ for our foreign policy and national security, from the areas of convergence listed above.  The ‘red lines’ for Pakistan include:

• Pakistan’s nuclear/missile program
• Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir and Palestine
• Pakistan’s relationship with China/CPEC
• Pakistan’s refusal of any use of its territory to destabilize Iran
• Pakistan’s rejection of any attempt to impose Indian hegemony.

What is most commendable is also the graceful and dignified role of the American leadership in the smooth and peaceful transition after a divisive political campaign, which should be an example for Pakistani politicians stuck in never-ending political warfare. Trump calling for “healing of wounds”, Kamala Harris graceful accepting defeat and President Biden calling for “lowering of the political temperature” and the Pentagon boss, General Austin, publicly proclaiming the United States administration will “stand ready to carry out the policy choices of its next commander-in-chief and to obey all lawful orders from its specific chain of command”.

A number of analysts both in Pakistan and the US have been asking me how I was confident and consistent since the past one year in predicting the victory of Trump in the American Presidential election. I gave three reasons for my consistent view that President Trump will prevail politically. The first quality in any politician is courage and ability to survive and surmount difficulties.  In this regard, Trump demonstrated resilience, despite the highest number of cases in American history against any former president. He reminds of an inspiring quote of President Richard Nixon: “You do not lose when you are defeated, you lose out when you quit”. Trump didn’t quit!

Secondly, throughout this four-year period after he lost to Biden on November 5, 2024, Trump did not give up, he retained his popular base and his message resonated not only with his base, but also a larger chunk of the American population that ensured his victory on 5 November, giving him not only the electoral college, but also five million plus popular votes more than his rival.  Finally, the alternative to Trump was weak, whether Biden or Harris with a poor track record and an inability to craft a message for the American people that how they would be better or different than Trump.

At the end, when Trump asked persistently from the voters “whether you are better today or before”, the answer was predictable and Trump was able to promote the perception that he would be a stronger and decisive leader at a time when Americans themselves have lost confidence in their own institutions in the context of a turbulent and transformed world.